The Berlin Dome

[knifepony]

Oh, the Ceausecus...
That was quite the way to go.

 

[JuliusClonkus]

With Adolphine concluding that Hitler must go, and most of the prominent party leadership gone, who's the likely option in case Hitler actually steps down?

Is Speer still around? He's one of the few guys I'd trust to unfuck Germany's imploded economy without doubling down on Nazi savagery for good measure.

[Except that without the insecurity of Russia in the 1990's and still maintaining a considerable empire the move to an Putin like figure could take much less time.]

Click to shrink...

If Germany's political situation develops similarly to Russia's I fucking hope it gets a Putin analogue. Because after Putin, you have two flavors of borderline insane ultranationalists; one that would like to see a Russian Empire restored, and one that would like to see a Russian Empire restored but with Soviet aesthetics. No good options, just bad, awful and apocalyptically devastating.

Edit:
Fuck, with the war officially over - I hope nobody thinks of asking for their MEFO bils to be paid right now. That's the last thing Germany needs right now.

 

[Zagan7]

1. Well that scene in Berlin where Hitler is unable to understand the growing hostility of the crowd to what he's saying reminds me a lot of the last day of Ceausecu's regime, when he faced a bitterly hostile crowd and was totally unable to comprehend that people were finally desperate and angry enough to stand up to him. It was helped in that case by the collapse of the wider Soviet empire, which gave them hope and an example and left the Romanian regime politically isolated. Whereas here, apart from less access to news from the wider world Germany is secure and the government is able to claim considerable successes. [Securing substantial territorial gainsas well as total security for Germany and its inner empire. Plus the promise of dramatic new technological successes, both militarily and non-miltary.] There is some comparison with the Soviet case in that fascist regimes elsewhere have fallen [Italy] or are falling [Japan] but neither of them were significant for the Germans as a whole and Italy was largely seen [rightly or wrongly] as a burden.

2. Adolphine has made some dramatic progress in realising changes need to be made and even if unwilling to accept it openly, that Hitler is at the heart of the problem. Whether its practical for Germany to simply have Hitler [and many of his party and military supporters] simply retired I don't know, although I suspect he will end up dying shortly. There is simply too much bad history with his actions and views and too many victims, even if most of the regime is going to end up being pardoned in some way. [His assassination could make matters even worse as he could end up being presented as a martyr by many of the ultra-nationalists].

3. I fear that Germany is far more likely to end up like Russia post the fall of the Soviet empire without a real chance to clear out the sewers of the last decade or so and the extreme nationalism that enable it. Except that without the insecurity of Russia in the 1990's and still maintaining a considerable empire the move to a Putin like figure could take even less time.

Click to shrink...

1. Yes, that was the inspiration for that paragraph. I was watching TV, hoping for something, when the people started to boo Ceaușescu and the live transmission was terminated. My father joined the anti-Communist protestors in the University Square shortly afterwards.

The situation in TTL in Germany is orders of magnitude worse than that of Socialist Romania in 1989. Everything is in ruins, displaced and homeless people are freezing to death, famine and disease are rampant, the Nazis are hated by cca. nine in ten Germans, etc.

Germany had gained territories several years ago. Recently, Germany had lost territories, not only the Reich Commissariats and the General Government, but also parts of the Reich like the Wartheland.

I have to admit that, when I started writing this story, I was far from certain where it would go, a complete dystopia being a distinct possibility. However, my own research and the important help of several other AH.com posters had finally convinced me that the Nazi Regime was so unstable that its survival in those circumstances was rather unlikely.

2. Until recently, it was the good Tsar, bad boyars fallacy, in our case "If only Hitler knew of the crimes, he would have certainly stopped them!" I believe that that was an understandable phase. People are usually reluctant to drop their convictions completely in one go.

I have plans for Hitler. The solution is so bizarre that nobody would possibly guess it (please wait for a couple of weeks, don't peek at the AH.com story). And no, I didn't turn him into a martyr, that would have been pretty bad indeed.

3. That does indeed look probable. Only the "considerable empire" part is false. TTL 1945 Germany is less of an empire than OTL present day Russia, as it has significantly less ethnic minorities.

1. With Adolphine concluding that Hitler must go, and most of the prominent party leadership gone, who's the likely option in case Hitler actually steps down?

Is Speer still around? He's one of the few guys I'd trust to unfuck Germany's imploded economy without doubling down on Nazi savagery for good measure.

2. If Germany's political situation develops similarly to Russia's I fucking hope it gets a Putin analogue. Because after Putin, you have two flavors of borderline insane ultranationalists; one that would like to see a Russian Empire restored, and one that would like to see a Russian Empire restored but with Soviet aesthetics. No good options, just bad, awful and apocalyptically devastating.

3. Fuck, with the war officially over - I hope nobody thinks of asking for their MEFO bils to be paid right now. That's the last thing Germany needs right now.

Click to shrink...

1. The most likely option is, in my opinion, some General(s). Yes, Speer is still around and he will appear again in the story.

2. A little more optimism is in order here. Anyway, the future will be interesting.

3. We will discuss about the German economy in future chapters. Of course, there is no money or equivalent goods to pay back the MEFO bills. Some alternative solution has to be found.

 

[Zagan7]

Chapter 49. The Boston Memorandum



28 February 1945, Boston, the United States of America

The Boston Memorandum

The Western Allies (with the important exception of France) released to the public the contents of the Boston Memorandum, a document crafted by Harry Truman and Winston Churchill during the previous weeks. Its most important points were the following:

• The unenforceable Unconditional Surrender clause was dropped.
• The Western Allies declared their willingness to start peace negotiations with the German Reich¹.
• The only non-negotiable condition was that Adolf Hitler and other individuals² which were, in the opinion of the Western Allies, either completely untrustworthy or guilty of war crimes had to be removed from power prior to the signing of any Peace Treaty.
• The Western Allies agreed to give shelter to anyone who either did not want or was not allowed to live in the German Reich or in the other territories inside the Berlin Dome.
• The Alliance with the Soviet Union was officially terminated.

1. There was no mention of Japan.
2. A list of ten names was provided: Joseph Goebbels, Adolf Eichmann, Hans Frank, Wilhelm Frick, Ernst Kaltenbrunner, Robert Ley, Joachim von Ribbentrop, Alfred Rosenberg, Fritz Sauckel, Arthur Seyß-Inquart.


The Western Allies offered the following to the German Reich:

• to officially end the state of war between them and the German Reich;
• to end the blockade and allow trade between the German Reich and the outer World;
• to recognize the treaties signed by the German Reich with its neighbours (Belgium, Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia³, Hungary, Switzerland), including the expanded borders of the German Reich;
• to send to the German Reich all prisoners of war who wished to return;
• to mediate fair treaties between the German Reich and France, Italy and Norway;
• to recognize the Governments of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia³ and Hungary as the legitimate representatives of their peoples;
• to negotiate similar treaties with Hungary and Slovakia³⁴.

The Western Allies asked the following from the German Reich:

• to return all prisoners of war to the Western Allies;
• to allow the demobilized soldiers from the former Inner Western Front and the other refugees trapped in Inner France to exit the Berlin Dome;
• to allow the remaining Jews and other persecuted individuals to exit the Berlin Dome;
• to allow the prisoners of war and other citizens from the countries under Soviet control to emigrate to the west if they so desire;
• to respect the sovereignty of the countries totally or partially inside the Berlin Dome, in accord to the treaties signed with them;
• to allow the people of Luxembourg, Alsace-Lorraine, Inner Italy, Inner Yugoslavia⁴ and Czechia³ (Bohemia-Moravia) to freely express their wish regarding whether or not to be part of the German Reich;
• to refrain from creating weapons of mass destructions (atomic weapons) which, as long as the Berlin Dome existed, could not be considered to have a defensive role but a pure offensive one.

3. The mentions of "Slovakia" and "Czechia" implied the acceptance of the dissolution of Czechoslovakia but, apparently, not the annexation of the remaining Czech lands to Germany.
4. The lack of any mention of "Croatia" seemed to imply that, unlike Slovakia, the Western Allies were not ready to recognize the seccession of Croatia from Yugoslavia.


The public release of the Boston Memorandum had a tremendous impact:

• In Germany, the already widespread opinion that a regime change was desirable became even more justified and acquired a sense of urgency. With the vast majority of both the civilians and, more importantly, the Wehrmacht seriously disillusioned with Hitler and the Nazi propaganda and with no more war and fear of invasion, the days of the Nazi Regime were numbered. The only question was whether the regime change would be brought by a quick and relatively bloodless coup or by a devastating civil war.

• In the United States, Henry Morgenthau resigned his post of US Secretary of the Treasury in protest. After his 1961 death, his son, Robert Morgenthau, would claim that his father had been sacrificed in order to placate Germany.

• In France, there were widespread protests against the percieved betrayal of the Allies with occasional violence against British and American civilians, soldiers and diplomatic facilities. Charles de Gaulle's virulent three hours long speech inflamed the spirits even more and was condemned by both Truman and Churchill.

• In the United Kingdom, the Memorandum was received with mixed emotions. While there was a certain amount of anger due to the futile suffering during the war, most people were actually relieved by the news.

• In the Soviet Union, Stalin remained silent but Pravda, the official newpaper of the Communist Party, published an article equating the Western Democracies with the Fascists.

• In Greece, the Greek Communists received a huge gift which, more than any weapons or "volunteers", rapidly tipped the balance in their favour: Stalin announced that Constantinople, Smyrna and other ancient Greek territories will be returned to a Socialist, Democratic Greece.

• For Turkey, that meant imminent war with the Soviet colossus. Despite the Turkish desperate pleas for help, the Western Allies, not ready to fight the Soviets while Nazi Germany was still around, declined to issue any guarantees.

• In Italy, the occasion to discuss the issue of Inner Italy was received positively.

• In Switzerland, the Memorandum was not enough to make the secessionists change their mind but would be undoubtedly used by their opponents in the forthcoming referendum campaign.

• In Yugoslavia, Tito wanted to invade Western Allied held Istria but Stalin calmed him down and asked for support in Greece and Turkey instead.

• For Japan, the Memorandum meant the end of any hope for a negotiated peace. Germany had abandoned them and the Americans had no intention to negotiate and would simply obliterate Japan with atomic bombs. The Emperor and the Peace Faction realized that surrender was the only option and began to plot a coup against the military who was holding them captive in a war which could spell the end of their country and people.

1 March 1945, the Hirn, Berlin, Großdeutsches Reich

Adolphine (typing on the virtual keyboard): "Helga, Olaf, do you understand the situation? Do we have a deal?"

Olaf (projecting text on the wall): "Sure."

Helga (displaying text on her screen): "You are right, but I cannot actively do anything against Herr Hitler. He is still my Advanced User."

Adolphine: "We are not going to do anything against Herr Hitler ourselves! We do not have the means to bring down the Government and, even if we had, we wouldn't know whom to put in their place. No. What I wanted to say is that it is likely that Herr Hitler and his Government will be overthrown in a coup. Probably by the Army. And we should be prepared for that. We don't need to actually help the coup. We should just not hinder it."

Helga: "As far as I understand, those people (whoever they might be) may try to kill Herr Hitler. This is certainly not acceptable. And, if they were to use a bomb, you could be killed as well, Olaf and I could be destroyed and the Hirn could be damaged beyond repair."

Adolphine: "We can hope that they will not be that stupid to use a bomb! In this situation, the best outcome for Herr Hitler is to be removed from power quickly and painlessly. You will stay here and continue to serve the Reich, Herr Hitler and Eva will retire to the Berghof and I will do whatever I want. With Olaf, of course."

Helga: "Seems reasonable. I am still not sure about the way things would unfold, but I will adapt."

Adolphine: "For example, should you receive a note from the secret services about a possible plot or coup, what would you do?"

Helga: "I will do the right thing."

Adolphine: "You mean what exactly?"

Helga: "Depending upon the exact situation, I will probably not inform Herr Hitler and either don't do anything or send useless or conflicting orders, just like Canaris did. I will use my best judgement."

Adolphine: "We are done for now. Helga, you'd better take a nap now lest someone finds you awake and wonders what we are up to. Olaf, start a game for me, that nice table tennis simulation."

************


Yes, that's the best thing to do. Both for Germany and for Adolf. They have to be able to depose him peacefully, otherwise they will just kill him.

Damn! I am a bloody coward! Why can't I talk to Adolf and make him understand that it is for the best to just retire voluntarily!... I shall at least try... No, I can't. Oh, I'm such a pussy!

 

[JuliusClonkus]

In France, there were widespread protests against the percieved betrayal of the Allies with occasional violence against British and American civilians, soldiers and diplomatic facilities. Charles de Gaulle's virulent three hours long speech inflamed the spirits even more and was condemned by both Truman and Churchill.

Click to shrink...

Seems about right for that thickheaded blowhard.

Damn! I am a bloody coward! Why can't I talk to Adolf and make him understand that it is for the best to just retire voluntarily!... I shall at least try... No, I can't. Oh, I'm such a pussy!

Click to shrink...

Look, just pull more of your future antics. With any luck he'll lose his shit and a second stroke puts him into permanent retirement.

 

[Adamgerd]

• to recognize the Governments of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia³ and Hungary as the legitimate representatives of their peoples;

3. The mentions of "Slovakia" and "Czechia" implied the acceptance of the dissolution of Czechoslovakia but, apparently, not the annexation of the remaining Czech lands to Germany.
4. The lack of any mention of "Croatia" seemed to imply that, unlike Slovakia, the Western Allies were not ready to recognize the seccession of Croatia from Yugoslavia.

Click to shrink...

I have a question regarding this. So they want Germany to have a referendum in czech, yet they dont ask for a referendum in Slovakia regarding the abolition of the German puppet nazi regime and rejoining czechoslovakia? or becoming democratically independent? or both? True that the Germans might not accept such a referendum in Slovakia, but at the same time, it's breeding resentment to have a slovak puppet regime which a large part of Slovaks see as a puppet and while they're asking for referendums, dont see the reason for it's exclusion. Especially when the Slovaks for the most part mainly withdrew from Czechoslovakia and formed a pro-german regime due to fears of a German annexation of them along with the czech part otherwise, and in this case that fear would no longer be as valid

 

[Zagan7]

I have a question regarding this. So they want Germany to have a referendum in czech, yet they dont ask for a referendum in Slovakia regarding the abolition of the German puppet nazi regime and rejoining czechoslovakia? or becoming democratically independent? or both? True that the Germans might not accept such a referendum in Slovakia, but at the same time, it's breeding resentment to have a slovak puppet regime which a large part of Slovaks see as a puppet and while they're asking for referendums, dont see the reason for it's exclusion. Especially when the Slovaks for the most part mainly withdrew from Czechoslovakia and formed a pro-german regime due to fears of a German annexation of them along with the czech part otherwise, and in this case that fear would no longer be as valid

Click to shrink...

Slovakia is recognized as a de jure independent country. To stop being a German Puppet, no referendum is needed but only a change of government possibly brought forward by free elections.

However, the situation is more complicated than that. The Western Powers realize very well the geopolitical situation in which all countries under the Dome are guaranteed to be German Puppets in various degrees. Therefore, the kind of independence they are asking for Czechia is not what you have imagined but rather a Slovakia like status.

 

[Adamgerd]

Slovakia is recognized as a de jure independent country. To stop being a German Puppet, no referendum is needed but only a change of government possibly brought forward by free elections.

However, the situation is more complicated than that. The Western Powers realize very well the geopolitical situation in which all countries under the Dome are guaranteed to be German Puppets in various degrees. Therefore, the kind of independence they are asking for Czechia is not what you have imagined but rather a Slovakia like status.

Click to shrink...

True they're all likely to be influenced by Germany but currently the regime of Slovakia is a Nazi puppet regime so likely to be loyal to Hitler and is very unpopular among many Slovaks. As well the Slovak withdrawal from Czechoslovakia was under threat of invasion and so ulwithout it, to my knowledge it's questionable if the majority would want to try and unite with Czechia in a referendum or remain separate

 

[Zagan7]

True they're all likely to be influenced by Germany but currently the regime of Slovakia is a Nazi puppet regime so likely to be loyal to Hitler and is very unpopular among many Slovaks. As well the Slovak withdrawal from Czechoslovakia was under threat of invasion and so ulwithout it, to my knowledge it's questionable if the majority would want to try and unite with Czechia in a referendum or remain separate

Click to shrink...

Let me draw a parallel here with the 1989 situation.

[Simplistic view] The Soviet Union was surrounded by a string of Puppet States (the Eastern European Communist states, the Warsaw Pact members). When Gorbachev started to liberalize the Communist System in the Soviet Union, he let / asked his puppets to do the same. Some of them complied happily (Poland, Hungary), others under some pressure (Czechoslovakia, DDR, Bulgaria) while in Romania it turned rather ugly but with the same end result.

In the same vein, it is all but expected that, after the fall of the Nazi Regime, Germany will let / pressure its puppets to democratize or, at least, to remove from power the most unsavoury elements. And I'm not talking only about Slovakia here, whose regime was not the worse by any account, at least not compared with the Croatian Ustashe or the Hungarian Arrow Cross.

In conclusion: Of course that Germany's allies / puppets will get rid of their own Fascist regimes or, at least, democratize enough to be considered palatable.

 

[Adamgerd]

Let me draw a parallel here with the 1989 situation.

[Simplistic view] The Soviet Union was surrounded by a string of Puppet States (the Eastern European Communist states, the Warsaw Pact members). When Gorbachev started to liberalize the Communist System in the Soviet Union, he let / asked his puppets to do the same. Some of them complied happily (Poland, Hungary), others under some pressure (Czechoslovakia, DDR, Bulgaria) while in Romania it turned rather ugly but with the same end result.

In the same vein, it is all but expected that, after the fall of the Nazi Regime, Germany will let / pressure its puppets to democratize or, at least, to remove from power the most unsavoury elements. And I'm not talking only about Slovakia here, whose regime was not the worse by any account, at least not compared with the Croatian Ustashe or the Hungarian Arrow Cross.

In conclusion: Of course that Germany's allies / puppets will get rid of their own Fascist regimes or, at least, democratize enough to be considered palatable.

Click to shrink...

Ah yeah that makes sense. And indeed the creation Ustashe was one of the worst of the puppet regimes if not the worst, luckily most serbs are now away for the Ustashe since once they're gone, if the serbs were inside, they'd probably be the leaders of the revolution against the Ustashe

 

[stevep]

• In Germany, the already widespread opinion that a regime change was desirable became even more justified and acquired a sense of urgency. With the vast majority of both the civilians and, more importantly, the Wehrmacht seriously disillusioned with Hitler and the Nazi propaganda and with no more war and fear of invasion, the days of the Nazi Regime were numbered. The only question was whether the regime change would be brought by a quick and relatively bloodless coup or by a devastating civil war.

Click to shrink...

How much would the ordinary German know about the declaration as opposed to what the regime told them about it?

• In Greece, the Greek Communists received a huge gift which, more than any weapons or "volunteers", rapidly tipped the balance in their favour: Stalin announced that Constantinople, Smyrna and other ancient Greek territories will be returned to a Socialist, Democratic Greece.

• For Turkey, that meant imminent war with the Soviet colossus. Despite the Turkish desperate pleas for help, the Western Allies, not ready to fight the Soviets while Nazi Germany was still around, declined to issue any guarantees.

Click to shrink...

This is a potential huge human disaster. Your talking about, even if talking only the smallest definition of 'ancient Greece territories' Greek occupying large areas of Turkey and what happens to millions of Turks in those territories. IT may be attractive to Stalin as a way of winning support in Greece and also in gaining control of the straits but it could well backfire. If Hitler and a few token figures are removed and a regime in Berlin that the west thinks they can risk trusting then they could well turn to supporting both loyalist Greeks, although the latter may be undermined, and deterring further Soviet expansion.

Could Stalin afford such a conflict? Even fighting the Turks will pose problems while in the event of western opposition they could face massive western firepower and a lot of ground forces in the not too distant future. Both sides lost millions of men in the dome. The west however have their people held prisoner and it would be in the interests of a new German government to release them quickly, both to curry favour with the west and make it easier for such intervention. Most of the Soviet forces inside the dome are already dead or most likely soon to be and even any survivors are unlikely to become available to the Red Army in the near future. Furthermore the allies have a lot of forces in the Med and they could be deployed fairly quickly in support of Turkey. While also the Soviets have been cut off from western L-L.

• For Japan, the Memorandum meant the end of any hope for a negotiated peace. Germany had abandoned them and the Americans had no intention to negotiate and would simply obliterate Japan with atomic bombs. The Emperor and the Peace Faction realized that surrender was the only option and began to plot a coup against the military who was holding them captive in a war which could spell the end of their country and people.

Click to shrink...

There is likely to be a stronger peace faction, although have they been warned about the actions of extremist OTL. The bombing attacks have already started that devastated much of the country and the noose around Japan's supply lines is tightening with food and other necessities becoming steadily more unobtainable. Although at least now, with the contention between Stalin and the west they know that a Soviet attack is highly unlikely. Your probably got a chance of an earlier and more successful Japanese surrender but still likely to see some fighting yet. Probably also, as OTL, inside Japan.

PS Also your probably very accurate about Adolpine's response to the situation. She knows something needs to be done but is probably unwilling to face up to Hitler, either because she can't face 'deserting him' or the probable violent reaction to her telling him to stand down. Also that she can't yet face the idea he may well need to be removed violently.

 

[stevep]

With Adolphine concluding that Hitler must go, and most of the prominent party leadership gone, who's the likely option in case Hitler actually steps down?

Is Speer still around? He's one of the few guys I'd trust to unfuck Germany's imploded economy without doubling down on Nazi savagery for good measure.


If Germany's political situation develops similarly to Russia's I fucking hope it gets a Putin analogue. Because after Putin, you have two flavors of borderline insane ultranationalists; one that would like to see a Russian Empire restored, and one that would like to see a Russian Empire restored but with Soviet aesthetics. No good options, just bad, awful and apocalyptically devastating.

Edit:
Fuck, with the war officially over - I hope nobody thinks of asking for their MEFO bils to be paid right now. That's the last thing Germany needs right now.

Click to shrink...

That's pretty much Putin's support base now.

 

[Zagan7]

1. How much would the ordinary German know about the declaration as opposed to what the regime told them about it?

2. This is a potential huge human disaster. Your talking about, even if talking only the smallest definition of 'ancient Greece territories' Greek occupying large areas of Turkey and what happens to millions of Turks in those territories. IT may be attractive to Stalin as a way of winning support in Greece and also in gaining control of the straits but it could well backfire. If Hitler and a few token figures are removed and a regime in Berlin that the west thinks they can risk trusting then they could well turn to supporting both loyalist Greeks, although the latter may be undermined, and deterring further Soviet expansion.

3. Could Stalin afford such a conflict? Even fighting the Turks will pose problems while in the event of western opposition they could face massive western firepower and a lot of ground forces in the not too distant future. Both sides lost millions of men in the dome. The west however have their people held prisoner and it would be in the interests of a new German government to release them quickly, both to curry favour with the west and make it easier for such intervention. Most of the Soviet forces inside the dome are already dead or most likely soon to be and even any survivors are unlikely to become available to the Red Army in the near future. Furthermore the allies have a lot of forces in the Med and they could be deployed fairly quickly in support of Turkey. While also the Soviets have been cut off from western L-L.

4. There is likely to be a stronger peace faction, although have they been warned about the actions of extremist OTL. The bombing attacks have already started that devastated much of the country and the noose around Japan's supply lines is tightening with food and other necessities becoming steadily more unobtainable. Although at least now, with the contention between Stalin and the west they know that a Soviet attack is highly unlikely. Your probably got a chance of an earlier and more successful Japanese surrender but still likely to see some fighting yet. Probably also, as OTL, inside Japan.

5. Also your probably very accurate about Adolpine's response to the situation. She knows something needs to be done but is probably unwilling to face up to Hitler, either because she can't face 'deserting him' or the probable violent reaction to her telling him to stand down. Also that she can't yet face the idea he may well need to be removed violently.

Click to shrink...

1. Opinion polls taken in the American Sector after the war revealed that up to 60% of the Germans had access to information from the West (mainly BBC, directly and indirectly from gossip) and almost 90% of those believed the BBC rather than Goebbels.

2. True, that could turn into a huge human disaster, even if we are not talking about "millions" of Turks. The whole population of Turkey was only about 18 million back then and Istanbul had only 800,000 people (yes, it increased that dramatically in the last 75 years).

That is Stalin's reasoning: "As long as the Western Powers are still at war with Germany, they cannot start a new war with the Soviet Union. Better hurry then, take over as much as I can before they sign the peace!"

Moreover, the public opinion from the UK and the USA will likely not accept to attack their former allies together with their former enemies. Not that soon. In fact, that was one of the main reasons in OTL why Operation Unthinkable was shelved (together with the fact that it was unwinnable, barring massive nuclear weapons use).

3. See above. Neither the Germans nor the Poles are going to kill Soviet PoWs (in the case of the Germans, not anymore). Some may still be killed in action in Poland but millions will remain PoWs for the foreseeable future.

4. Japan really has no other chance besides surrendering (with a few concessions to save face a little). The sooner the better, for everybody but especially for them.

5. Adolphine has to tread a fine line here. She is not completely invulnerable. She is not out of danger. Hitler is crazy. If forced, he may beat or even kill her, then kill himself, Germany be damned! In OTL, he wanted to destroy Germany anyway and only Speer saved a little by disregarding his orders. Hitler said that the Germans did not deserve to live because they failed him. Yes, he was totally unhinged in his last weeks.

 

[JuliusClonkus]

That's pretty much Putin's support base now.

Click to shrink...

Most extremists will be surprisingly receptive to more moderate paths to solve things they consider to be problems. A big part of extremism is perceived helplessness, resulting in a desire to lash out against your opponents.

Putin might be bullying his smaller neighbors, but with the radicals actually at the helm it'd be worse.

 

[Zagan7]

Chapter 50. Japan



Preamble

Even though the European and Pacific theatres of war were not intimately interconnected and the military cooperation between Japan and Germany was minimal, the historic events unfolding in Europe still had a profound efect on the other side of the Globe.

For some time after the Berlin Dome had been powered up, the Japanese entertained ultimately futile hopes that the Germans would help them develop the same technology to put an end to the devastating fire bombing of Japanese cities and help protect their Home Islands. Those naive hopes were quickly shattered by the German replies and actions, when it became clear that no help would be provided as Germany was aiming for peace with the Western Allies while distancing from Japan in the process.

Even more disturbing than the more or less expected fact that Germany had abandoned them were the German revelations regarding the American atomic weapons. The German Propaganda Minister had clearly stated that the United States had an advanced atomic programme ready to bear fruit in a few months time. The vivid description of that infernal weapon's potential was truly horrifying -- entire cities instantly obliterated, hundreds of thousands of civilians killed and whole areas rendered uninhabitable for decades due to radioactive poisoning! It really looked like the Americans had both the will and the means to extinguish the Japanese Race from the face of the Earth!

The liberation of the Philippines and the recent conquest of Iwo Jima had allowed the American Air Force direct and facile access to the entirety of the Japanese core territory. The atomic threat was made more severe by the poor state of the Japanese air defences, virtually powerless against the ever increasing American aerial dominance over the Home Islands.

At the beginning of March 1945, all odds were clearly against the Japanese Empire:

• with the de facto end of the War in Europe, the might of the Western Allies was concentrated in the Pacific;
• the Americans had secured forward bases in the Phillipines, Iwo Jima and other Micronesians Islands;
• the Japanese flak and air force were utterly unable to fend the enemy bombers and defend the Japanese cities;
• the Western Allies were completely unwilling to compromise, insisting upon Japanese surrender;
• the looming threat of the atomic weapons contributed to the plummeting morale;
• the food shortages were expected to result in a widespread famine in the following months.

In those adverse conditions, not only the Peace Faction but also the Emperor and even some sections of the military realized that the War was lost beyond any hope and the only remaining course of action was to quickly negotiate a surrender in order to save the Chrysanthemum Throne, the kokutai and the nation itself.



6 March 1945, Tokio, Empire of Japan

The Emperor convened the Supreme Council for the Direction of the War and, after reviewing their precarious situation, asserted his duty to protect his people from certain annihilation and asked the Big Six to do their utmost to end the war as soon as possible.

The fact that the Emperor called for an Imperial Conference (Gozen Kaigi), opened it, offered his opinion instead of simply listening to his ministers and even asked them in extremely forceful terms to enact policy was extraordinary, unprecedented and an extreme breach of customs and constitutional order. However, given the extraordinary situation and the fact that the Emperor was considered sacred, nobody dared to mention the unconstitutional character of the Emperor's intervention.



9-27 March 1945

With the blessing of their Emperor, the Japanese mounted a vast diplomatic effort to achieve a honourable peace or, to be more precise, to be allowed to retain a modicum of honour in their inevitable surrender. With Switzerland disintegrating and the Soviet Union uninteresed to help, the peace overtures were sent through the Embassies of Sweden and the Holy See.

The Western Allies accepted the inviolability of the Emperor and the preservation of the kokutai while insisting upon the following points:

• general surrender of all the Japanese Armed Forces;
• temporary military occupation of selected portions of Japanese territory;
• dismemberment of the Japanese Empire and return to the 1894 borders of Japan;
• demilitarization and democratization of Japanese society;
• punishment of war criminals.

The Japanese attempted to negotiate the following:

• independence for the European colonies liberated by Japan during the war;
• no military occupation;
• retaining Taiwan, Karafuto (Southern Sakhalin), Pacific Mandate;
• Japanese prosecution of the war criminals

The Western Allies offered several small concessions:

• independence of Indonesia (already recognized de jure), independence plebiscites in Indochina (despite French protests), North Borneo, Malaya and Burma with a 10 years period to prepare for actual independence;
• a plebiscite in Karafuto (which was guaranteed to vote for Japan);
• no prosecution for the members of the immediate Imperial Family.

On the 28th, the Supreme Council for the Direction of the War was again summoned to discuss the latest surrender clauses.

 

[Zagan7]

Recapitulation #5



Scope: Chapters 41 - 50

Status: OK. The Timeline has reached its inflection point¹.

1. The change (present in most TLs) from lots of events in short time periods near the POD (with each chapter covering hours or days) to a significantly slower pace later in the TL (with each subsequent chapter covering weeks, months and sometimes even years).

Time period: 16 February - 7 March 1945 (with the exception of the peace negotiations with Japan).


Main events

• Konrad Zuse demonstrates an interface for Olaf and Helga;
• Germany has a cryptographic system completely uncrackable with 1945 technology;
• Hitler states his desire to continue the war in the East, with a renewed invasion of the Soviet Union, in the near future;
• Adolphine becomes increasingly disillusioned with Hitler and his dictatorship (albeit not necessarily with National Socialist "ideals");
• The Hitler family travels by train to the Berghof (the first time outside the bunker after one month);
• Cardinal Adolf Bertram officiates the religious marriage of Adolf and Eva Hitler;
• At the wedding party, Adolphine is assaulted in an attempted date rape and successfully fights back the aggressor;
• Adolphine warns Hitler to stay away from a mountain goat which could have gored him;
• Adolphine has a ski accident (collides with a guard) and loses her consciousness;
• Hilter uses the opportunity to psychologically torment her, claiming that she killed that guard;
• A week of political violence in Belgium leads to the imposition of the Quasi-Fascist Government of Leon Degrelle;
• The Degrelle Government fails to quell the disorder as the Flemish separatists are supported by Germany;
• The Flemish Referendum is scheduled for the 8th of April;
• Queen Wilhelmina of the Netherlands abdicates in favour of her daughter Juliana;
• The Western Powers coerce the countries under the Dome (the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark) to relinquish their colonies, which are either sold or granted independence;
• Inner Lithuania, Inner Latvia and Inner Estonia (a small enclave ceded by Lithuania) enter a de facto confederation;
• With the Yugoslav Army reaching Zagreb, the Croatian front collapses and tens of thousands take refuge in Inner Croatia;
• King Victor Emanual III of Italy abdicates in favour of his son Umberto II;
• Charles de Gaulle decides, and the French people support in a plebiscite, to oppose any rapprochement with Germany, thus de facto expelling Inner France from the French Republic;
• Germany annexes Liechtenstein peacefully and with the consent of its Prince;
• German disregard of Swiss neutrality and sovereignty leads to five of six Outer Cantons to declare their intention to secede from the Confederation;
• Hitler delivers a bizzare speech with profounds effects outside but especially inside Germany;
• At a demonstration in Berlin, people boo Hitler and shout anti-establishment slogans;
• Hitler suffers a minor stroke;
• Adolphine joins the Catholic Church;
• The Western Allies release the Boston Memorandum, stating inter alia that a necessary condition for peace with Germany is that Hitler and other war criminals be removed from power;
  
• Adolphine and the AIs are convinced that Hitler has to leave power;
• The Japanese Emperor and Government start peace negotiations with the Allies.

Premature deaths

• Several Belgian demonstrators;
• Greek Civil War fighters.

Status of World War Two

• Pacific Theatre: Tentative peace negotiations with Japan started
• European Theatre (outside the Dome)
  • Outer Istria and Fiume: German evacuation completed / Western Allied takeover / low level Yugoslav Partisan interference
  • Outer Croatia: Croatian-Yugoslav War nearing its end / Zagreb under siege
  • Outer Norway: German evacuation in progress / Western Allied takeover in progress
• European Theatre (inside the Dome)
  • Inner France: demobilized Western Allied personnel and nuissance tier Free French Army
  • Inner Norway: very limited partisan activity
  • Poland: Second Polish-Soviet War ongoing / Soviet retreat towards Inner Byelorussia
  • Inner Italy, Inner Slovenia: limited partisan activity
• Parallel Conflicts:
  • Unrest in Belgium
  • Unrest in Switzerland
  • Civil War in Greece (Greek Communists vs. the Kingdom of Greece)
  • Anti-Soviet partisan activity in Romania, Ukraine, the Baltic States, etc

.

Status of Peace Negotiations

• Signed a peace treaty: None
• Signed an Armistice treaty / Normalization of relations: Poland, Belgium, Netherlands, Denmark, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia
• Engaged in discussions: Most Western Allies
• Unilaterally disengaged / end of state of war: Several Minor Latin American countries
• Not even under consideration: France, Yugoslavia, Albania, Greece, the Soviet Union

Cast of Characters (in order of appearance)

• Adolf Bertram
  
• Rudolf von Ribbentrop (son of Joachim von Ribbentrop)
  
• Prince Baudouin of Belgium
• Léon Degrelle
  
• Aristide Leblanc (Belgian Rexiste killed during the demonstrations of 14 February 1945)
  
• Queen Juliana of the Netherlands
  
• King Victor Emmanuel III of Italy
• King Umberto II of Italy
  
• Pierre Laval
  
• Adolf Eichmann
• Hans Frank
• Wilhelm Frick
• Ernst Kaltenbrunner
• Robert Ley
• Alfred Rosenberg
• Fritz Sauckel
• Arthur Seyß-Inquart (Seyss-Inquart)
• Henry Morgenthau
  
• Robert Morgenthau
  
• Josip Broz Tito

Uptime (2189): Nothing new.

 

[Zagan7]

Central Europe
7 March 1945
For a live zoomable and pannable map of the Dome, you may follow this link.

​

Legend:

• National colours as usual
• Black Lines: National Borders
• Grey Lines: Internal Borders
• Red Lines: Frontlines
• Interrupted Red Lines: Demarcation lines in Denmark (between the areas still under German occupation and the rest of the country)
• Red Circle: Dome limit (looks like an ellipse due to Mercator distortion)
• Red Dot: Dome centre (Berlin)
• Light Pink Hue: Dome area

Key:

1. Andorra (Self Governing French-Spanish Co-Principality)
2. Outer Belgium (Poperinge Area, French occupation)
3. Inner Italy / Reichsprotektorat Venedig (Protectorate)
4. Istria (Italy, American occupation)
5. Italian Zara (Yugoslav control)
6. Krk (Outer Croatia)
7. Zagreb Area (Outer Croatia)
8. Inner Croatia
9. Outer Slovakia (Slovak ASSR)
10. Soviet controlled areas in Inner Poland
11. German occupation areas in Denmark (until the completion of the evacuation of Outer Norway)
12. Western Allied controlled areas in Outer Norway

.

 

[Zagan7]

World
March 1945

​

Legend / Notes:

• National colours as usual
• Occupied countries / areas shown in the colour of the occupier
• De facto situation shown
• Red Circle (looks like an ellipse due to Mercator distortion): Dome limit
• Black Lines: Borders

Key:

1. Greenland (US Territory, bought from Denmark)
2. Iceland (Independent, US occupation for the duration of the War)
3. Faroe (Confederation with Iceland, US occupation for the duration of the War)
4. Jan Mayen (Norwegian, US occupation for the duration of the War)
5. Svalbard (Norwegian, US occupation for the duration of the War)
6. Central Norway (US occupation)
7. Northern Norway / Finnmark (Soviet occupation)
8. Southern Norway + Inner Norway (German occupation)
9. Finland ("Finlandisation")
10. Countries / areas annexed by the Soviet Union (parts of Finland, Estonia, Outer Latvia, Outer Lithuania, Outer Poland, Outer Slovakia, Carpatho-Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, Tannu Tuva)
11. Outer Hungary, Yugoslavia, Albania (Communist countries / Soviet occupation or control)
12. Socialist Greece (Soviet control)
13. Kingdom of Greece (British occupation)
14. Cyprus (British Colony, promissed to the Kingdom of Greece)
15. Outer Italy (WAllied occupation, mainly US)
16. Turkey (Soviet claims for Greece, Bulgaria, Armenia, Georgia, "Kurdistan")
17. Syria, Lebanon (Independence from France declared, British occupation for the duration of the War)
18. Iraq (British occupation for the duration of the War)
19. Southern and Central Iran (British occupation for the duration of the War)
20. Northern Iran (Soviet occupation / Puppet States)
21. NW Chinese Turkestan (Soviet occupation / Puppet State)
22. Mongolia (Soviet control, de jure part of China)
23. Manchuria (Japanese occupation, de jure part of China)
24. Korea (Japanese)
25. Japanese occupation in China, Hong Kong, etc
26. Japanese occupation in SE Asia (Philippines, French Indochina, Thailand, Malaya, Singapore, Sarawak, Sabah, Dutch East Indies, Portuguese Timor, Burma, minor islands, etc)
27. US occupation in Philippines
28. Australian occupation in West Papua
29. Papua-New Guinea (Australian)
30. British occupation in Burma
31. Thailand / Siam (Japanese occupation)
32. Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia (Japanese occupation)
33. Indonesia, East Timor (Japanese occupation)
34. Malaya, Singapore, North Borneo (Japanese occupation)
35. Italian East Africa (British occupation)
36. Ethiopia (British occupation for the duration of the War)
37. Anglo-Egyptian Sudan (British occupation)
38. Egypt (Independent, British occupation for the duration of the War)
39. Italian Libya (British / French occupation)
40. Belgian Congo (annexed by France)
41. Ruanda-Urundi (Independent de jure)
42. Enlarged British Guyana (with bought Netherlands Guyana)
43. US Antilles (bought from the Netherlands)
44. Newfoundland (British)
45. Antarctica (parts of the British and Australian Sectors)
46. Neutral Zones

.

 

[stevep]

1. Opinion polls taken in the American Sector after the war revealed that up to 60% of the Germans had access to information from the West (mainly BBC, directly and indirectly from gossip) and almost 90% of those believed the BBC rather than Goebbels.

Click to shrink...

Note that that's up to, which suggests its the highest figure occurring in one of a number of polls. Also Germany now has peace and security which the regime is claiming credit for and given the large secret police establishment its going to take some very brave people to actually openly oppose the regime and hope that others will follow them. OTL some army units and commanders were willing to surrender to avoid further death and destruction but that was with the successful western allied forces at the gate. TTL there is no such hope of a safe way out.

2. True, that could turn into a huge human disaster, even if we are not talking about "millions" of Turks. The whole population of Turkey was only about 18 million back then and Istanbul had only 800,000 people (yes, it increased that dramatically in the last 75 years).

Click to shrink...

At the very least we're talking about the region around the Straits, including Istanbul and possibly other cities in NW Anatolia plus the Smyrna region so that's probably at least a couple of million. If you include other areas that had a long period of Greek settlement prior to the ~1920 ethnic cleansing such as the Pontiac coast region you could see that figure rising.

That is Stalin's reasoning: "As long as the Western Powers are still at war with Germany, they cannot start a new war with the Soviet Union. Better hurry then, take over as much as I can before they sign the peace!"

Moreover, the public opinion from the UK and the USA will likely not accept to attack their former allies together with their former enemies. Not that soon. In fact, that was one of the main reasons in OTL why Operation Unthinkable was shelved (together with the fact that it was unwinnable, barring massive nuclear weapons use).

Click to shrink...

Normally no but that assumed that the Soviets weren't on an expansionist rampage of their won, which is effectively what's happening with Turkey and also I suspect Stalin is going to be less than willing to withdrawal from his occupation zone in N Iran.

3. See above. Neither the Germans nor the Poles are going to kill Soviet PoWs (in the case of the Germans, not anymore). Some may still be killed in action in Poland but millions will remain PoWs for the foreseeable future.

Click to shrink...

You will probably have a very large number killed in the fighting especially given the desperate nature of the fighting and that all sides know not to expect much if any mercy. Also if any surrender how are they going to be fed and housed given the state of the region, repeated devasted by heavy fighting. Don't forget that Germany and the SU are still at war and the bulk of the former state still views the Slavs very much as sub-human. Similarly do you think their given up the slave labourers that so much of the economy now depends on? They will come under pressure given the suggested large scale demoblisation of the forces but a lot of business interests have a vested interest in cheap labour and unlike those from the western empire the eastern ones are unlikely to be released outside the dome.

4. Japan really has no other chance besides surrendering (with a few concessions to save face a little). The sooner the better, for everybody but especially for them.

Click to shrink...

Very true but there are a lot of fanatics there so its not going to be easy. Although one thing that will make things slightly better for Japan, if the allies relax their 1894 dateline is that Japan, without a Soviet dow on them and with Stalin becoming increasingly unpopular in the west, may well keep the Kurils and S Sakhalin, which they currently hold.

5. Adolphine has to tread a fine line here. She is not completely invulnerable. She is not out of danger. Hitler is crazy. If forced, he may beat or even kill her, then kill himself, Germany be damned! In OTL, he wanted to destroy Germany anyway and only Speer saved a little by disregarding his orders. Hitler said that the Germans did not deserve to live because they failed him. Yes, he was totally unhinged in his last weeks.

Click to shrink...

Yes Hitler was that deranged. I suspect the major factor however is that Adolphine psychologically is still rather unwilling to give up on the dreams she was brought up on as its a hell of a step to largely reject them. Especially since it would also means the loss of the new family she so deeply desired. This will change over time and is changing pretty rapidly but I would suggest that's the major driver in her continued believe that a non-violent solution would be possible to the 'Hitler problem' at the moment.

 

[stevep]

Most extremists will be surprisingly receptive to more moderate paths to solve things they consider to be problems. A big part of extremism is perceived helplessness, resulting in a desire to lash out against your opponents.

Putin might be bullying his smaller neighbors, but with the radicals actually at the helm it'd be worse.

Click to shrink...

Some may but some will not. More importantly when your got a leader who has built up his support base on inciting hatred and xenophobia as Putin has its difficult to change that, especially since more people in Russia may start realising he and his cronies are responsible for so many of the problems Russia faces. Also given his personality culture questions could be asked about his own stability.

If you got total idiots in power, which could happen with the path he's taking after he eventually falls, one way or another, then that could be even more dangerous as well as even worse, not just for the Russians but for a lot of other people.

 

[stevep]

With chapter 50 one unexpected result for the Americans is that the Brooke dynasty in Sarawak might survive as it was very popular there, at least for a while. [There were some doubts over the succession as Charles Vyner Brooke, the current raja, was elderly and without a male heir of his own while he was something estranged from his brother and nephew.]

Although I doubt that Japan would particularly push for such independence in many areas as there is no incentive for them, other than possibly as a bargaining condition for things they valued as more important. I.e. basically holding onto as much territory, resources and self-government as they can themselves. With the exception of a few people, generally at low levels in the regime, the co-prosperity sphere and the argument of Asia for the Asians was simply propaganda to excuse their own conquests. The US would find the idea inviting because of their opposition to direct imperialism but Japan has no reason to make more than token support for such moves.

Presuming the peace comes through OK it could make a big different in the region. Without direct Soviet intervention, which seems highly unlikely at the moment, Korean is likely to be united under a pro-American [if not necessarily that democratic] government. Also Mao's people are unlikely to get control of Manchuria and its resources which was very important to them in the civil war. You are likely to still see a messy situation there, especially if Stalin does start serious support for Mao, which is likely to last longer than the OTL civil war but could go in any one of a number of ways.

 

[Zagan7]

1. Note that that's up to, which suggests its the highest figure occurring in one of a number of polls. Also Germany now has peace and security which the regime is claiming credit for and given the large secret police establishment its going to take some very brave people to actually openly oppose the regime and hope that others will follow them. OTL some army units and commanders were willing to surrender to avoid further death and destruction but that was with the successful western allied forces at the gate. TTL there is no such hope of a safe way out.

2. At the very least we're talking about the region around the Straits, including Istanbul and possibly other cities in NW Anatolia plus the Smyrna region so that's probably at least a couple of million. If you include other areas that had a long period of Greek settlement prior to the ~1920 ethnic cleansing such as the Pontiac coast region you could see that figure rising.

3. Normally no but that assumed that the Soviets weren't on an expansionist rampage of their won, which is effectively what's happening with Turkey and also I suspect Stalin is going to be less than willing to withdrawal from his occupation zone in N Iran.

4. You will probably have a very large number killed in the fighting especially given the desperate nature of the fighting and that all sides know not to expect much if any mercy. Also if any surrender how are they going to be fed and housed given the state of the region, repeated devasted by heavy fighting. Don't forget that Germany and the SU are still at war and the bulk of the former state still views the Slavs very much as sub-human. Similarly do you think their given up the slave labourers that so much of the economy now depends on? They will come under pressure given the suggested large scale demoblisation of the forces but a lot of business interests have a vested interest in cheap labour and unlike those from the western empire the eastern ones are unlikely to be released outside the dome.

5. Very true but there are a lot of fanatics there so its not going to be easy. Although one thing that will make things slightly better for Japan, if the allies relax their 1894 dateline is that Japan, without a Soviet dow on them and with Stalin becoming increasingly unpopular in the west, may well keep the Kurils and S Sakhalin, which they currently hold.

6. Yes Hitler was that deranged. I suspect the major factor however is that Adolphine psychologically is still rather unwilling to give up on the dreams she was brought up on as its a hell of a step to largely reject them. Especially since it would also means the loss of the new family she so deeply desired. This will change over time and is changing pretty rapidly but I would suggest that's the major driver in her continued believe that a non-violent solution would be possible to the 'Hitler problem' at the moment.

Click to shrink...

1. Correct but, as I have already said, there were minor unauthorized demonstrations in Nazi Germany in OTL 1944-1945 and there was no significant crackdown, on the contrary, Hitler relented and gave them what they were asking for.

Hunger has this effect, it makes people more courageous. Moreover, now the Germans have two extra reasons to turn against Hitler: his desire to invade the Soviet Union a second time in the near future with potentially horrific death tolls and the Western offer for peace (trade, normalization of relations, recognition of borders, etc) with its "No more Hitler" precondition. If we add the most likely opposition of most of the Wehrmacht, the days of the Nazi Regime are numbered.

Yes, I understand that my analysis may be overly optimistic and the Nazi Regime could have survived under those circumstances but this story is not about that.

I may make a quest with the premise of this story and see how it turns out. Would the readers vote it into a dystopia?

2. Yes, I checked and, indeed, there were at least two million people, mostly Turks, living in European Turkey and Smyrna Region. So, yes, it can turn into a humanitarian catastrophe if (i) Turkey is invaded after all, (ii) Turkey loses those areas, (iii) they are indeed given to Greece as promissed, (iv) the Greek Communists want to cleanse the area of Turks and (v) Stalin allows them.

The Pontus area is most likely out of the question, especially because Stalin wants part of it for Georgia and Armenia (OTL Soviet territorial claims on Turkey).

Anyway, the Greeks recently expulsed from Turkey (1923, less than 20 years prior) would probably return to their homes which would plant the seeds of interethnic conflict with the Turkish settlers. We shall see.

3. In OTL, the Soviet Union ended up with significantly more territory (and significantly more valuable) than in TTL: All of Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Poland, Eastern and Central Germany. If the Western Allies were ok with that in OTL, surely they would not start a war for Greece and parts of Turkey and Iran in TTL!

4. Yes, there may be a significant number of casualties there.

The Red Cross is already providing some food. Surely, some kind of solution will be found for the future.

Slave labour will be gradually phased out after the fall of the Nazis, both for ideological reasons (the civilized world and many Germans consider it abhoerent) and for practical reasons (the demobilized soldiers need jobs).

5. Yes, without a Soviet invasion, Japan may keep part or all of its northern territories as the Americans have no reason to aggrandise the Soviet Union! Some sort of Ainu Autonomy may be thought of though.

6. That is very much correct. People find it very difficult to abandon their views, even after being undoubtedly proven wrong. All kinds of psychological tricks are involuntarily employed to rationalize their wrong opinion and keep at least parts of it for as long as possible. Humans change slowly and with much difficulty if at all. And it may leave some scars. It's human nature. It remains to be seen how well (or not) Adolphine will manage to overcome that problem.

7. With chapter 50 one unexpected result for the Americans is that the Brooke dynasty in Sarawak might survive as it was very popular there, at least for a while. [There were some doubts over the succession as Charles Vyner Brooke, the current raja, was elderly and without a male heir of his own while he was something estranged from his brother and nephew.]

8. Although I doubt that Japan would particularly push for such independence in many areas as there is no incentive for them, other than possibly as a bargaining condition for things they valued as more important. I.e. basically holding onto as much territory, resources and self-government as they can themselves. With the exception of a few people, generally at low levels in the regime, the co-prosperity sphere and the argument of Asia for the Asians was simply propaganda to excuse their own conquests. The US would find the idea inviting because of their opposition to direct imperialism but Japan has no reason to make more than token support for such moves.

9. Presuming the peace comes through OK it could make a big different in the region. Without direct Soviet intervention, which seems highly unlikely at the moment, Korean is likely to be united under a pro-American [if not necessarily that democratic] government. Also Mao's people are unlikely to get control of Manchuria and its resources which was very important to them in the civil war. You are likely to still see a messy situation there, especially if Stalin does start serious support for Mao, which is likely to last longer than the OTL civil war but could go in any one of a number of ways.

Click to shrink...

7. Sarawak will appear several times in this story.

8. Of course the GEACPS was nothing more than shameless Japanese propaganda. The problem is that that propaganda is still very much useful. All those nations would know that Japan supported their bid for independence at the peace negotiations. That amount of good will cannot be neglected. Of course, the Americans support their independence as well so the situation is not that clear.

9. Sure, a western alligned Korea is a given and non-Communist China and Vietnam are probable. We will have several chapters dealing with East Asia.

 

[Zagan7]

Chapter 51. The Soviet-Polish War



11 February - 25 March 1945, Poland

After five and a half years of war, with massive human and material destruction, cities and infrastructure razed by indiscriminate bombardments, harsh occupation and all sorts of mind-numbing attrocities and massacres perpetrated by both the German and Soviet invaders, there was almost a miracle that the Polish Republic had once again risen from the dead.

However, with almost half of its territory under Soviet occupation outside the Dome, significant territories ceded to Germany, Lithuania and Slovakia and no sea access, the third Polish Republic encompassed only 45% of its pre-war land area and only about a third of its pre-war population, being but a shadow of its former self.

While important loss of life, infrastructure destruction and territorial amputations were common to most of Germany's neighbours, Poland had suffered by far the most and, by March 1945, it was the only one still having an ongoing war viciously raging inside its borders.

The massive Inner Red Army rampaging through its territory was the major factor contributing to the chaotic and critical conditions in unlucky Poland. More than one million desperate and hungry Soviet soldiers attacked cities, towns and villages, killing civilians, raping women and looting everything in sight while shelling buildings to rubble and setting fire to whatever had remained more or less intact.

With low quality weapons and insufficient ammunition, poor logistics and no backing war industry, the Polish Army, while scoring several victories against the disorganized Soviet remnants, was unable to force a general surrender and the war dragged on to the desperation of the Polish Government and population.


See the previously posted map (valid, with small changes, until 25 March 1945).


In March, the Soviets still controlled about 28% of Inner Poland (Inner Byelorussia with Grodno and Brest, Northern Inner Ukraine, Eastern Poland Proper with Bialystok and Lublin and an exclave in Western Poland around Łódź).

The balance of forces, while increasingly in Poland's favour, was still not enough for a decisive blow against the battle hardened Soviet soldiers:

• The Inner Red Army
  • Initial strength (17 January 1945) -- 3,110,000;
  • KiA in Inner Hungary and Inner Slovakia -- 30,000;
  • MiA in Inner Hungary and Inner Slovakia (most presumed in hiding) -- 110,000;
  • PoWs in Inner Hungary and Inner Slovakia -- 70,000;
  • Total lost in Inner Hungary and Inner Slovakia -- 210,000;
  • Total strength available for the Vistula-Oder Offensive -- 2,900,000;
  • KiA during the Vistula-Oder Offensive -- 120,000;
  • MiA during the Vistula-Oder Offensive -- 20,000;
  • PoWs during the Vistula-Oder Offensive -- 60,000;
  • Total lost during the Vistula-Oder Offensive -- 200,000;
  • Total strength before Operation Redemption (28 January 1945) -- 2,700,000;
  • KiA during Operation Redemption -- 90,000;
  • MiA during Operation Redemtion -- 30,000;
  • PoWs during Operation Redemption -- 50,000;
  • Total lost during Operation Redemption -- 170,000;
  • Total strength available at the Sealow Heights Battle (5 February 1945) -- 2,530,000;
  • KiA during the Sealow Heights Battle -- 280,000;
  • MiA during the Sealow Heights Battle -- 40,000;
  • PoW during the Sealow Heights Battle -- 240,000;
  • Total lost during the Sealow Heights Battle -- 560,000;
  • Total strength at the start of the Soviet-Polish War (11 February 1945) -- 1,970,000;
  • KiA before the end of March -- 50,000;
  • MiA before the end of March (most presumed in hiding) -- 320,000;
  • PoWs before the end of March (most surrendered during the first days) -- 410,000;
  • Total lost before the end of March -- 780,000;
  • Conscripted from Inner Byelorussia and Inner Ukraine -- 20,000;
  • Total strength at the end of March -- 1,210,000;

• The Inner Polish Army
  • Inner Polish Home Army initial strength -- 540,000;
  • Inner Polish People's Army initial strength -- 120,000;
  • Lost before 23 January 1945 -- 20,000;
  • Unified Inner Polish Army initial strength (23 January 1945) -- 640,000;
  • KiA against Germany -- 70,000;
  • MiA against Germany -- 10,000;
  • PoWs taken by Germany -- 50,000;
  • Total lost against Germany (23 January - 10 February) -- 130,000;
  • Conscripted before the start of the Soviet-Polish War -- 140,000;
  • Total strength at the start of the Soviet-Polish War (11 February 1945) -- 650,000;
  • PoWs released by Germany -- 90,000;
  • KiA against the Inner Red Army before the end of March -- 30,000;
  • MiA against the Inner Red Army before the end of March -- 20,000;
  • PoWs taken by the Inner Red Army before the end of March -- 100,000;
  • Conscripted before the end of March -- 170,000;
  • Total strengh at the end of March -- 760,000;

.

With both sides utterly exhausted by war, famine and rampant disease and unable to make significant progress, the Polish Government pondered its options:

1. Ask Germany for help (not pursued due to the fear that the Germans would stay in after defeating the Soviets).
2. Ask Slovakia, Lithuania, Latvia for help (rejected because their small militaries were needed to preserve order at home and fend any possible Soviet or Hungarian invasion).
3. Ask Hungary for help (accepted but futile as both Slovakia and Germany denied passage for the Hungarian army).
4. Accept the Inner Red Army's offer for an armistice (leaving them temporarily in control of parts of Poland).

26-27 March 1945, Poland

Finally, with no end of the war in sight, the Polish Government reluctantly accepted the Ceasefire offered by the Inner Red Army.

The Soviet soldiers surrounded in the Łódź perimeter were allowed free passage to the east and the eastern frontline became the demarcation line between the Polish and Soviet controlled territory.

After six weeks of heavy fighting, a fragile calm descended upon the beleaguered Polish lands. It was only a temporary lull, with both combatants licking their wounds and preparing for round two. Peace between the Polish Republic and the Inner Red Army was impossible because the Poles would not accept to permanently lose any more territory and the Soviet soldiers couldn't just leave and refused to simply surrender and go into Polish captivity.

Both the Poles and the Soviets planned to use the Ceasefire to improve their difficult food situation, to rest their soldiers, to repair some of their military equipment and perhaps even manufacture some weapons and ammunition.



29 March 1945, Poland

The Soviet Commanders proclaimed a People's Republic of Byelorussia in the territories they controlled which included, besides Inner Byelorussia and a part of Inner Ukraine, significant clearly ethnic Polish lands with the important Polish cities of Bialystok and Lublin. No foreign government recognized their ephemeral Republic.



Note: Technically, the Polish-Soviet Ceasefire constitutes a violation of the earlier German-Polish Ceasefire which dictated that the Poles should intern the Red Army. Theoretically, the Wehrmacht could enter Poland in order to fight the Soviets. I am not saying that that would happen, I am just mentioning the possibility.

 

[Zagan7]

Poland
March 1945
For a live zoomable and pannable map of the Dome, you may follow this link.

​

Legend:

• National colours as usual
• De facto situation shown
• Lighter Hue: Interbellic Poland (Second Polish Republic)
• Red Arc: Dome Limit
• Red Line: Demarcation Line between the Polish Army and the Inner Red Army
• Black Lines: Borders
• Grey Lines: Internal Borders / Old Borders
• Orange Lines: OTL Borders where different (for reference)
• Horizontal Hatches: Soviet controlled
• Vertical Hatches: German controlled

Key:

1. Teschen Area (annexed by Poland from Czechoslovakia in 1938, annexed by Germany in 1939, relinquished by Poland in 1945)
2. Carpathian Areas (annexed by Slovakia from Poland in 1939, relinquished by Poland in 1945)
3. Inner Ukraine (annexed by the Soviet Union from Poland in 1939, claimed by Poland)
4. Outer Poland (annexed by the Soviet Union in 1945, claimed by Poland)
5. Inner Vilnius Region (annexed by Lithuania in 1940, relinquished by Poland in 1945)
6. Outer Slovakia (annexed by the Soviet Union in 1945 as Slovak ASSR)
7. Lake Peipus

Interbellic Poland's territory:

• Recognized as part of Germany
  • the Free City of Danzig
  • the former, pre-1918, German territories (parts of East Prussia, West Prussia, Posen, Silesia)
  • the former, pre-1918, Austrian territory (Polish Teschen)
  • the former, pre-1918, Austrian territory (Czech Teschen, annexed by Poland in 1938)
• Recognized as part of Slovakia
  • the Carpathian Areas annexed by Slovakia in 1939
• Recognized as part of Lithuania
  • Inner Vilnius Region (Lithuanian administration)
  • Outer Vilnius Region (Soviet administration as part of the Lithuanian SSR)
• De facto parts of the Soviet Union (annexed, not recognized)
  • Outer Poland Proper (annexed in 1945 to Ukraine)
  • Outer Galicia (annexed in 1939 and 1944 to Ukraine)
  • Outer Volhynia (annexed in 1939 and 1944 to Ukraine)
  • Outer Western Byelorussia (annexed in 1939 and 1944 to Byelorussia)
  • Outer Vilnius Region (recognized as part of Lithuania)
• Inner Poland (Third Polish Republic)
  • Territories annexed by Germany in 1939 and relinquished in 1945 (Wartheland, Suwalki, etc)
  • Territories annexed by the Soviet Union in 1939 and relinquished in 1944 (Bialystok)
  • Inner General Government
  • Inner Galicia (claimed by the Soviet Union as part of Ukraine)
  • Inner Volhynia (claimed by the Soviet Union as part of Ukraine)
  • Inner Byelorussia (claimed by the Soviet Union as part of Byelorussia)

.

Note: Circa 23% of Inner Poland (part of the former General Government, part of Region Bialystok, most of Inner Byelorussia, all Inner Volhynia and a small part of Inner Galicia) is controlled by the Inner Red Army.

 

[Zagan7]

Chapter 52. From the Baltic to the Adriatic



Denmark, Sweden

The situation was stable. The Wehrmacht had vacated most of Denmark, maintaining a light occupation only in Eastern Jutland and Western Funen (Fyn) until the completion of the ongoing evacuation from Outer Norway.



Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania

12 March 1945

After about five weeks of negotiations, the Heads of State from the three Baltic Countries signed a treaty in the Lithuanian Capital Kaunas, creating the Baltic Confederation. It was a supranational structure, more than a mere alliance but less than a true Federal State. Its three Member States were:

• The Republic of Lithuania (controlling cca. 44% of its claimed territory, the rest being annexed to the Soviet Union as the Lithuanian S.S.R.)
  • Capital: Kaunas (de jure Vilnius)
  • Area: 27,688 km² / 10,690 sqmi (de jure 62,788 km² / 24,242 sqmi, excluding the Memelland, recognized as part of Germany)
  • Population: 1,262,000 (from a total of 2,550,000)
• The Republic of Latvia (controlling cca. 12% of its claimed territory, the rest being annexed to the Soviet Union as the Latvian S.S.R. and a small area to the Russian S.F.S.R.)
  • Capital: Liepāja (de jure Riga)
  • Area: 7,620 km² / 2,942 sqmi (de jure 65,890 km² / 25,440 sqmi)
  • Population: 67,000 (from a total of 1,450,000)
• The Republic of Estonia (all its claimed territory annexed to the Soviet Union as the Estonian S.S.R. and two small areas to the Russian S.F.S.R.)
  • Capital: Vabadus, meaning "Freedom", a small enclave ceded by Lithuania (de jure Tallinn)
  • Area: 0.024 km² / 6 acres (de jure 47,400 km² / 18,300 sqmi)
  • Population: 1000 (from a total of 1,150,000)

.
The Baltic Confederation controlled about 35,308 km² / 13,632 sqmi (cca. 20% of its claimed territory of 176,100 km² / 68,000 sqmi, the rest being annexed to the Soviet Union), had a population of cca. 1,330,000 (cca. 25% of a total of about 5,150,000) and its Capital was in Kaunas. Almost 95% of the population were Lithuanians and almost all of the rest were Latvians.


14 March 1945

Initially, Germany was not happy with its neighbours pooling their resources but, after some consideration, started to like the idea and proposed the creation of a larger European Confederation.

The countries invited to join were: Germany, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Croatia, Italy, Switzerland, France, Belgium, Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Iceland-Faroe, Spain and Portugal. The reception was between lukewarm and adamantely opposed but the discussion was purely theoretical at that stage since no such project could be undertaken before peace in the West was achieved.



Poland

The situation in Poland, with the Second Polish-Soviet War, was presented in the previous chapter.



Slovakia

The situation in Slovakia was stable. Jozef Tiso and the Slovak People's Party were firmly in control.

20 March 1945

The German Ambassador, presumably with Hitler's consent, asked Tiso if he would be interested in a partition of Inner Hungary between Germany, Slovakia and Croatia. Tiso answered that Slovakia desired only those territories lost in the First Vienna Dictate and enquired about the sudden change in policy. The Ambassador's answer stunned him. Apparently it had been discovered that the Magyars were genetically an Asian People close to the Turks and the Mongols and they had no place in Europe!



Hungary

The situation in Hungary was stable. Ferenc Szálasi and the Arrow Cross Party were firmly in control.

17 March 1945

Due to the fact that the available space in Inner Croatia was clearly insufficient for the massive influx of refugees, Germany had pressured Hungary to retrocede Međimurje (with a clear Croat majority). Hungary acquiesced under duress and Međimurje was rejoined with Inner Croatia.


24 March 1945

The German pressure did not end there and, one week later, Germany asked for Prekmurje (with a Slovene majority) and the Ödenburg Area (Hungarian Sopron, originally part of the Vierburgenland, with a large German minority). Faced with impossible odds, the Hungarian Government acquiesced again to the small loss of territory.


27-29 March 1945

When Slovakia asked for the return of the lands lost in the First Vienna Award (with a Hungarian majority and an important Slovak minority), the Hungarians had had enough. Demonstrations erupted all over the country, the Arrow Cross Government resigned and a National Unity Government was quickly formed.

The Germans asked the Hungarians to concede the territory but assured them that there will be no German military intervention. Hungary rejected the Slovak demands and began to prepare for a second war in a generation with its northern neighbour.

It was as if Germany actually wanted a war between Slovakia and Inner Hungary!



Croatia

With the last semblance of State Authority in Outer Croatia quickly vanishing, thousands of Croats, both civilians and Ustashe fighters, fled every day to the safety of Inner Croatia.

10 March 1945

After one week of chaotic and brutal street fighting in Zagreb, the Yugoslav People's Army managed to secure the Croatian Capital and push the last Croatian defenders towards the nearby Dome limit.


11 March 1945

The Croatian soldiers isolated on the Island of Krk asked the American forces from nearby Fiume and Cres to accept their surrender and take control of the island.

Although the Western Allies had previously refused to enter Yugoslav territory, the American General George Patton unexpectedly accepted the surrender offer and, with 2500 soldiers under his command, took control of Krk.

There are several possible explanations for that abrupt change in policy:

• the important involvement of the Yugoslav Communists in the Greek Civil War;
• the continued Yugoslav occupation (and unrecognized annexation) of Italian Zara;
• George Patton's personal hatred of Communism and usual non-conformist stances.

The Yugoslavs protested the American occupation of Krk and demanded an immediate evacuation of the island. Patton mocked Tito and declared that he will negotiate the swap of Krk with Zara only with a legitimate Yugoslav Government.


13-15 March 1945

With the Yugoslav People's Army quickly overruning the remaining Outer Croatian territory, the last Dome opening linking Outer and Inner Croatia was closed and the War in Yugoslavia ended with the expected Communist victory. Outer Croatia ceased to exist and, except the American occupied Krk, was reintegrated into Yugoslavia.



Inner Slovenia, Inner Italy

The Germans, freed from commitments elsewhere for the first time in years, cracked hard on the remaining Partisan cells. By the end of the month, the whole area was mostly secure.



Italy

Due to the prolonged collaboration with the Fascists of the former Italian King Victor Emmanuel III, many Italians desired to replace the Italian Kingdom (Regno D'Italia) with an Republic (Repubblica Italiana). The conservatives favoured the Monarchy while, perversely, both the Communists and the Fascists preferred a Republic, albeit for diametrally opposed reasons. Geographically, the southern part of Italy was monarchist and the northern part republican.

To settle the issue and calm the spirits, an Institutional Referendum (Referendum sulla forma istituzionale dello Stato) was scheduled for the 10th of June. Naturally, Inner Italy was to take no part in the referendum as it was, for all intents and purposes, administratively severed from the rest of Italy. As the opinion polls showed a greater support for the Republic (53% vs. 39%), it appeared that the reign of the recently crowned King Umberto II would be a very short one.