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Operation Weihnachtswunder (A CK2 Style Quest to Save Christmas!)

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The Froggy Ninja said:
I am absolutely in favor of maximum bribery. The Christmas Spirit we got from Nicholas has an expiration date (if, admittedly, not one that will come up soon) and the work of the Dwarves is explicitly called out as worth the price.
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That price also scales linearly—200 CS buys 100 favor no matter how much CS is already spent. That is to say, there are no diminishing returns, and no reason not to buy 300 favor if you already think 100 favor is worth 200 CS.
 
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hleghe said:
sounds like good news, thanks for clarifying Novus
as for plans, is anyone interested in increasing the dwarf bribe in mine? might be a bit late but i had that written down as a possible point of discussion. currently my idea's to just be chill for now and get ourselves and them introduced (since after that we should get the chance to talk about the artifacts and if they want a bunch of Christmas spirit for that we'd be more able to pay for it), though the third tier of bribe has a mystery effect so there's always the chance that'll give us it?
we have a nest egg right now so I guess it's a matter of if we're willing to spend it riskily in exchange for getting more done? might be a good call especially when we're starting out, but i wouldn't want to run out any time soon since right now it's hard to get back and it's needed for a bunch of stuff

the "like lightning" action also has an awkwardly high chance of failure. fingers crossed Krampus helps there, but it still could end up inconclusive and whatever it is being lost if things don't go well? we can't really boost the roll easily without making other sacrifices i don't want, but maybe if we're sending more to the dwarves it'd be fine to move feast there? which would help a little (i'm unsure if they're poor/needy when we don't know who (if anyone) is there, but still?)
(the ghost of Christmas future's changing fate may also be a help, but that's spontaneous so can't say for sure, shouldn't bet on it when it might come in handy elsewhere)

well, we know they recharge every 1k years for one
hmm. I don't have any evidence to support this, but I'm calling it now that if you gather them all in one place they do something special (or can be used for something special)
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Big "eh" on increasing bribe from me.

Want to use our Christmas Spirit to expand our gift production massively. Spread the Christmas cheer we ought to spread. (I see the "Children Served Per Year: 35,000/2,400,000,000" as a challenge)

Then we can use our CS on big ticket items from the dwarves later.


The Froggy Ninja said:
The Christmas Spirit we got from Nicholas has an expiration date (if, admittedly, not one that will come up soon
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Got a quote on that?
 
hleghe said:
ah, the nest egg we have has an expiration date? good to know. vaguely remember something special but thought it was a positive bonus (idk, being immune to decay or something?). as good a reason as any to switch. i also thought it capped at +300 and you weren't able to pay all three increments to things. wow.

adding hand to the plow is a good way to boost stats to the occult action, but i'm prioritising training? especially with possibly being able to be sent stuff from the dwarves right away, since if jack heals soon it could mean we're ready for the Vixen/Mary mission quickly

what i can do for "like lightning" is reassign feast as mentioned, so fingers crossed we roll above 40 on that to hit the full DC for dwarves/the ghost of christmas future helps if not. not sure if this is a bad call, but it effectively only changes a 7/10 chance of success to a 6/10 chance, right? and if it's someone not evil(or at least who may not be fully innocent, but has been having a very bad time?) who's at cardiff, they might be in need of a warm meal for it to be more effective
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Yeah, any Santa CS we have left over by turn 25 will vanish since he's dead. Admittedly, that would mean using less than 200 CS per turn on average, but it's still something to keep in mind, and I think investing in our foundation early is important.

Keep in mind that Hand on the Plow is the only way to add our occult bonus at all otherwise we're rolling flat with a 1% chance of success. Maybe 15% if bringing Krampus adds his Occult. Plus 10% for omake bonuses to be fair.

@Novus Ordo Mundi, does adding the bribery bonus invalidate the Dwarf action from benefiting from Goodwill, since that's only supposed to apply to hitting the minimum threshold?
 
Hm… any thoughts on switching my Hand on the Plow from Occult Advisor (possibly swapping out that action entirely so it can benefit from that later) for the Dwarves? With Feast, Omake and Hand we'd have a 96% chance of hitting the perfect DC as opposed to 80% with just the Feast and Omake.
 
Zimmerwald1915 said:
That price also scales linearly—200 CS buys 100 favor no matter how much CS is already spent.
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true, but effectively more is needed to reach the next DC each time, so it might be worth less the more is spent (though admittedly since the tens column goes 80 60 40 20 each bribe has a higher chance of getting its maximum outcome)
The Froggy Ninja said:
Keep in mind that Hand on the Plow is the only way to add our occult bonus at all otherwise we're rolling flat with a 1% chance of success. Maybe 15% if bringing Krampus adds his Occult. Plus 10% for omake bonuses to be fair.
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there is feast if applied there, but this is unfortunately true, and i wouldn't consider a risk like that if we had other high urgency occult actions

do you know when jack's defrosted runs out? i was hoping it was immediately after this season if given the full chance to recover (laying low, though that action's also good for recruitment), but that might be overly ambitious? if so we probably shouldn't go out on the rescue mission, so training would be fine enough to delay

The Froggy Ninja said:
Hm… any thoughts on switching my Hand on the Plow from Occult Advisor (possibly swapping out that action entirely so it can benefit from that later) for the Dwarves? With Feast, Omake and Hand we'd have a 96% chance of hitting the perfect DC as opposed to 80% with just the Feast and Omake.
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our occult's way better than diplomacy, so boosting that roll may be more worthwhile? i think there's also more point narratively for putting the personal touch into searching for someone too (it finding an existing friend willing to help, hopefully?)

as an other idea, maybe instead of having to drop training to boost occult, i can drop the recruitment occult to boost the training one? seems like a major risk, but might work
 
Current tally. Vote is still ongoing. Putting it hear so I can reference it easier via phone.

Adhoc vote count started by Novus Ordo Mundi on Feb 6, 2025 at 9:48 PM, finished with 87 posts and 7 votes.
  • [X]plan: getting the Christmas train-sleigh into gear MK1
    -[X] Martial: Train With Krampus
    -[X] Martial: Spent to Take Krampus With You on "Like Lightning"
    -[X] Diplomacy: Reach Out To The Germanic Dwarves
    --[X] Offer A Trade
    ---[X] Offer More.
    ----[X] Offer It All
    -[X] Diplomacy: The Council of Christmas (Diplomacy)
    -[X] Stewardship: Promote From Within (Stewardship - Jacob Marley)
    -[X] Stewardship: Employ More Spirits
    -[X] Stewardship: Shift Over
    -[X] intrigue: Lay low (assigned to The Council of Christmas (Diplomacy)
    -[X] intrigue: spent to Lay low
    -[X] Learning: Promote From Within (Learning)
    -[X] Occult: The Council of Christmas (Occult)
    -[X] Occult: Like Lightning
    --[X] Take Krampus With You
    --[X] Feast
    -[X] Free action: stewardship: Promote From Within (Stewardship - Jacob Marley)
    -[X] personals
    --[X]Train With Krampus
    --[X] Hands To The Plow
    ---[X]The Council of Christmas (Occult)
    [X] Plan Preparation Is Key
    -[X][Martial] Employ A Master of Arms
    -[X][Martial] Like Lightning
    -[X][Diplomacy] Reach Out to the Germanic Dwarves - Bribery Edition -1220 CS
    --[X] Feast
    -[X][Stewardship] Upgrade the Workshop
    -[X][Stewardship] Promote From Within (Stewardship - Jacob Marley)
    -[X][Intrigue] Lay Low
    -[X][Learning] Promote From Within (Learning)
    -[X][Occult] The Council of Christmas (Occult)
    -[X][Occult] Like Lightning -5 CS
    -[X][Jack] Another Miracle on 34th Street (The Unseen World) -10CS
    -[X][Free] The Council of Christmas (Diplomacy)
    -[X][Personal] Hands to the Plow x2
    --[X] Like Lightning
    --[X] The Council of Christmas (Occult)
    [X]plan: staffing the new home of Santa, compromise with Occult advisor
    -[X] Martial: Employ a Master of Arms
    -[X] Martial: Spent to Take Krampus With You on "Like Lightning"
    -[X] Diplomacy: Reach Out To The Germanic Dwarves
    --[X] Offer A Trade
    --[X] Feast
    -[X] Stewardship: Promote From Within (Stewardship - Jacob Marley)
    -[X] Stewardship: Employ More Spirits
    -[X] Stewardship: Shift Over
    -[X] intrigue: Lay low (assigned to Promote From Within(Stewardship - Jacob Marley)
    -[X] intrigue: spent to Lay low
    -[X] Learning: Promote From Within (Learning)
    -[X] Occult: The Council of Christmas (Occult)
    -[X] Occult: Like Lightning
    --[X] Take Krampus With You
    -[X]Free: Diplomacy: The Council of Christmas (Diplomacy)
    -[X] personals
    --[X] Hands To The Plow
    ---[X]The Council of Christmas (Occult)
    ---[X] The Council of Christmas (Diplomacy)
    [X] plan: staffing the new home of Santa, compromise with Krampustraining
    -[X] Martial: Train With Krampus
    -[X] Martial: Spent to Take Krampus With You on "Like Lightning"
    -[X] Diplomacy: Reach Out To The Germanic Dwarves
    --[X] Offer A Trade
    --[X] Feast
    -[X] Stewardship: Promote From Within (Stewardship - Jacob Marley)
    -[X] Stewardship: Employ More Spirits
    -[X] Stewardship: Shift Over
    -[X] intrigue: Lay low (assigned to Promote From Within(Stewardship - Jacob Marley)
    -[X] intrigue: spent to Lay low
    -[X] Learning: Promote From Within (Learning)
    -[X] Occult: Find Out More About Wesley
    --[X] More Personal Examination
    -[X] Occult: Like Lightning
    --[X] Take Krampus With You
    -[X]Free: Diplomacy: The Council of Christmas (Diplomacy)
    -[X] personals
    --[X] used for Krampus Training
    --[X] Hands To The Plow
    ---[X] The Council of Christmas (Diplomacy)
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Paranoia consumes me. While the previous version of my plan had an 80% chance of maximum success on the dwarf action, I'd feel like a real idiot if we spent 600CS on the second best tier. Swapped out Occult Advisor and its Hand for Random Adventures (since the other Occult actions had impossible DCs without bonuses) and a 96% chance on the dwarves. I'll feel like even more of an idiot if this still doesn't work but it's literal five times less likely to fail.

I'd also like to risk pinging @Cubbyhb1 who has expressed interest in Maximum Bribery and make a counter argument to what other people have said to dissuade you: Yes, it is expensive but it's also, explicitly and textually, worth that expense. Regardless of what some others have said, there is a fundamental difference between spending the CS now as a gift to make the best possible first impression and spending it transactionally after making a "one tier above average" first impression. I want these dwarves to be our best friends due to this stuff I said earlier:
The Froggy Ninja said:
They made most of the Gifts of Santa, plus such classics as Mjölnir Gungnir, the flying ship that can fold up to fit in your pocket, the infinitely copying gold ring, the golden wig made of actual gold that actually grew, a literally unbreakable ribbon and an actual living flying pig made of gold.

And that's before getting into the diplomatic and informational advantages they could give us, from potentially introducing us to Odin to giving us instructions for the Gifts we have and dossiers for the ones we don't, to possibly having a lead on where the Elves are (svartalfs being cousins of the light elves) or the sheer utility of having access to a heavily fortified ally in the Arctic circle.
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The Froggy Ninja said:
Paranoia consumes me
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i know, right? if it's any solace, while dwarves could fail, it's more likely to succeed and the highest bribery tier also has a mystery effect, so unless it's something wacky like "someone notices" or "they think we're pushovers" we have some benefit to look forward to even if it doesn't fully succeed?

meanwhile, the like lightning occult is somewhat likely to fail, but if it's a positive event(someone who's having issues they might want help with) feast would give us a decent shot, and if it's a negative event(spooky eldrich stuff?) krampus would help prevent consequences of failure? (and probably not the end of the world on failure. maybe at least taking the action would let us get to find out what was up with it? which could be better than not taking the action if it's something dangerous, maybe?)

and of course, with jack healed next turn we should be good for a rescue mission then (depends a bit on results, but should be good?) so if nothing new starts up we need to address then investigating the legal situation seems a good place to start taking offensive action (though we could maybe do with keeping things under wraps if possible, so maybe prioritise mundane courts with less interconnection into things, maybe?)
overall, there's risks, but they *might* be worthwhile. that's what I'm hoping for at least

----
 
hleghe said:
meanwhile, the like lightning occult is somewhat likely to fail, but if it's a positive event(someone who's having issues they might want help with) feast would give us a decent shot, and if it's a negative event(spooky eldrich stuff?) krampus would help prevent consequences of failure? (and probably not the end of the world on failure. maybe at least taking the action would let us get to find out what was up with it? which could be better than not taking the action if it's something dangerous, maybe?)
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I'm very concerned about failing a time-sensitive task though. What if failure just means that this thing that made Krampus nervous goes entirely unexplained and it does stuff without our knowledge? Are you sure you won't consider swapping the Hand to Like Lightning and either rolling Occult Advisor flat or delaying it until next turn and grabbing Random Adventures?
 
The Froggy Ninja said:
I'm very concerned about failing a time-sensitive task though. What if failure just means that this thing that made Krampus nervous goes entirely unexplained and it does stuff without our knowledge? Are you sure you won't consider swapping the Hand to Like Lightning and either rolling Occult Advisor flat or delaying it until next turn and grabbing Random Adventures?
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well, i wouldn't worry *too* much. unless it's a critfail, i think it would be weird for the failure to be worse than not taking the action, and even if it goes poorly it's unlikely to be the end of the world? would be weird to have massive punishments for the results of a single action, if it's just the risk of a problem we could probably deal with that? (as in, if this action not succeeding generates a problem it won't be the end of the world, just one bad thing)
so the main issue is probably the opportunity cost and taking a longshot action (i.e, relying on guesses on how it'd work out), and failed actuions are going to happen at some point in quests)

and while putting our occult stat on it instead of hero recruitment may boost the roll, i feel like the latter would be more relevant long-term (assuming it's impacted by stats at least, but i feel safe in that bet, it's not listed as an autopass?). it's *probably* more important to go well, since we'd have to live with the consequences of who we're recruiting, as opposed to that situation which is either a single problem we could address, or a single opportunity (of which there'll be others?

stalling recruiting a hero is an option, but i'm not too enthused about it? plus the miscellaneous adventures don't really stand out, they're more of something to do when there's nothing better to take?

this might not address all of your worries, but everything has tradeoffs and can't be perfect unfortunately. at the very least, while we can't say what it'll proc on, there's still the Ghost of Christmas Future's precognition to let us improve *something* if one of the risks just failed/can be fixed?
i do agree with you regarding the downsides, but i think it's worth it, even if i'm manifesting a bit
 
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  • Voting
    • Scheduled vote count started by Novus Ordo Mundi on Feb 5, 2025 at 8:56 AM, finished with 97 posts and 11 votes.
    • [X]plan: getting the Christmas train-sleigh into gear MK1
      -[X] Martial: Train With Krampus
      -[X] Martial: Spent to Take Krampus With You on "Like Lightning"
      -[X] Diplomacy: Reach Out To The Germanic Dwarves
      --[X] Offer A Trade
      ---[X] Offer More.
      ----[X] Offer It All
      -[X] Diplomacy: The Council of Christmas (Diplomacy)
      -[X] Stewardship: Promote From Within (Stewardship - Jacob Marley)
      -[X] Stewardship: Employ More Spirits
      -[X] Stewardship: Shift Over
      -[X] intrigue: Lay low (assigned to The Council of Christmas (Diplomacy)
      -[X] intrigue: spent to Lay low
      -[X] Learning: Promote From Within (Learning)
      -[X] Occult: The Council of Christmas (Occult)
      -[X] Occult: Like Lightning
      --[X] Take Krampus With You
      --[X] Feast
      -[X] Free action: stewardship: Promote From Within (Stewardship - Jacob Marley)
      -[X] personals
      --[X]Train With Krampus
      --[X] Hands To The Plow
      ---[X]The Council of Christmas (Occult)
      [X]plan: staffing the new home of Santa, compromise with Occult advisor
      -[X] Martial: Employ a Master of Arms
      -[X] Martial: Spent to Take Krampus With You on "Like Lightning"
      -[X] Diplomacy: Reach Out To The Germanic Dwarves
      --[X] Offer A Trade
      --[X] Feast
      -[X] Stewardship: Promote From Within (Stewardship - Jacob Marley)
      -[X] Stewardship: Employ More Spirits
      -[X] Stewardship: Shift Over
      -[X] intrigue: Lay low (assigned to Promote From Within(Stewardship - Jacob Marley)
      -[X] intrigue: spent to Lay low
      -[X] Learning: Promote From Within (Learning)
      -[X] Occult: The Council of Christmas (Occult)
      -[X] Occult: Like Lightning
      --[X] Take Krampus With You
      -[X]Free: Diplomacy: The Council of Christmas (Diplomacy)
      -[X] personals
      --[X] Hands To The Plow
      ---[X]The Council of Christmas (Occult)
      ---[X] The Council of Christmas (Diplomacy)
      [X] Plan Preparation Is Key
      -[X][Martial] Employ A Master of Arms
      -[X][Martial] Like Lightning
      -[X][Diplomacy] Reach Out to the Germanic Dwarves - Bribery Edition -1220 CS
      --[X] Feast
      -[X][Stewardship] Upgrade the Workshop
      -[X][Stewardship] Promote From Within (Stewardship - Jacob Marley)
      -[X][Intrigue] Lay Low
      -[X][Learning] Promote From Within (Learning)
      -[X][Occult] Random Adventures
      -[X][Occult] Like Lightning -5 CS
      -[X][Jack] Another Miracle on 34th Street (The Unseen World) -10CS
      -[X][Free] The Council of Christmas (Diplomacy) -10CS
      -[X][Personal] Hands to the Plow x2
      --[X] Like Lightning
      --[X] Reach Out to the Germanic Dwarves
      [X] plan: staffing the new home of Santa, compromise with Krampustraining
      -[X] Martial: Train With Krampus
      -[X] Martial: Spent to Take Krampus With You on "Like Lightning"
      -[X] Diplomacy: Reach Out To The Germanic Dwarves
      --[X] Offer A Trade
      --[X] Feast
      -[X] Stewardship: Promote From Within (Stewardship - Jacob Marley)
      -[X] Stewardship: Employ More Spirits
      -[X] Stewardship: Shift Over
      -[X] intrigue: Lay low (assigned to Promote From Within(Stewardship - Jacob Marley)
      -[X] intrigue: spent to Lay low
      -[X] Learning: Promote From Within (Learning)
      -[X] Occult: Find Out More About Wesley
      --[X] More Personal Examination
      -[X] Occult: Like Lightning
      --[X] Take Krampus With You
      -[X]Free: Diplomacy: The Council of Christmas (Diplomacy)
      -[X] personals
      --[X] used for Krampus Training
      --[X] Hands To The Plow
      ---[X] The Council of Christmas (Diplomacy)
    Click to expand...
     
  • New
  • Voting
    • So, I decided to close the vote and start rolling. However, since you chose to hire enough people internally to fill half the Council, you gain an extra Bonus!

    Rolls are in progress. They may take a while, ads I am also eating carne asada fries.

    Edit: Wesley is wrong. That should be Occult Advisor

    Edit 2: Vision on Occult Advisor.
    Novus Ordo Mundi threw 1 100-faced dice. Reason: Martial: Training With Krampus Total: 58
    58 58
    Novus Ordo Mundi threw 1 100-faced dice. Reason: Diplomacy: Germanic Dwarves Total: 28
    28 28
    Novus Ordo Mundi threw 1 100-faced dice. Reason: Stewardship: More Employee Total: 39
    39 39
    Novus Ordo Mundi threw 1 100-faced dice. Reason: Occult: Wesley Total: 1
    1 1
    Novus Ordo Mundi threw 1 100-faced dice. Reason: Occult: Like Lightning Total: 74
    74 74
    Novus Ordo Mundi threw 1 100-faced dice. Reason: Diplomacy - Council Total: 76
    76 76
    Novus Ordo Mundi threw 1 36-faced dice. Reason: Visions Total: 19
    19 19
    Novus Ordo Mundi threw 1 100-faced dice. Reason: Turn 1 - Cecilia Radio Total: 20
    20 20
     
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