[X] Plan Things We Were Already Planning On Doing
-[X][IRA] Accept the deal.
-[X][TAT] Agree. Gain +1 Budget. Megaprojects complete 1 turn earlier. Egypt is expected to declare war on Levant.
-[X][TUR] Accept. Egypt is expected to declare war on Levant.
We can't do shit in Tartarstan as is, so we might as well accept. Promising nkt to do what you can't do is hardly a great loss, even if it galls. And in exchange we can normalize our finances ahead of the war, which I expect will not be cheap.
I find it hilarious that the king attempting to stop the spread of socialism in the ranks turned the Copts from "reactionary christians" to "JESUS WAS A SOCIALIST and we should love our non-capitalist neighbors!"
[X] Plan Things We Were Already Planning On Doing
-[X][IRA] Accept the deal.
-[X][TAT] Agree. Gain +1 Budget. Megaprojects complete 1 turn earlier. Egypt is expected to declare war on Levant.
-[X][TUR] Accept. Egypt is expected to declare war on Levant.
Scheduled vote count started by Fission Battery on Oct 24, 2022 at 12:07 AM, finished with 17 posts and 17 votes.
[X] Plan Things We Were Already Planning On Doing
-[X][IRA] Accept the deal.
-[X][TAT] Agree. Gain +1 Budget. Megaprojects complete 1 turn earlier. Egypt is expected to declare war on Levant.
-[X][TUR] Accept. Egypt is expected to declare war on Levant.
[] Plan Things We Were Already Planning On Doing
-[][IRA] Accept the deal.
-[][TAT] Agree. Gain +1 Budget. Megaprojects complete 1 turn earlier. Egypt is expected to declare war on Levant.
-[][TUR] Accept. Egypt is expected to declare war on Levant.
=== Egypt, Fall 1918 - Black Sea Pact Results
===
Over the course of several weeks the terms of a treaty between Egypt and the Black Sea Pact are hammered out. Hakim had agreed to every deal presented to him, and worked out an understanding with each member. No matter what the region looked like in the future, for the time being they were aligned with each other. The provisions about war and division of territory were signed in a separate secret treaty, while everything else covered was deemed fine to become public knowledge, which was dubbed The Tehran Treaty. Named so for the city the conference took place in.
Not that it could exactly be hidden well, with the numerous public sightings and photographs of the Egyptian delegation in Tehran alongside several heads of state. In the following weeks industrial aid from Tatarstan would begin to flow into Egypt. More heavy machinery meant the ability to manufacture more tools and more equipment to feed Egypt's industrial growth. The new production lines were immediately put to work producing a dizzying array of equipment for the country's numerous projects, greatly increasing their projected date of completion.
Rural Plumbing finished before the year was done. The incredible project to bring fresh, clean water, and public toilets across much of the countryside had been completed. It wasn't a full coverage of the entire country, but it was the foundation for future projects and a huge jump in quality of life for the majority of the population. Suddenly waste disposal wasn't handled by locals, who lacked the resources or ability to deal with sewage on their own.
Now, it was all connected, feeding into larger systems for treatment and disposal, while providing easier access to potable water. Existing pipes were refurbished, wells cleaned up and treated to be safe once more, and irrigation touched up too. The numerous rivers and streams that flowed from the Nile were less foul than they were years before. The majority of the country was never too far from a public toilet or a drink of water. The ministry would transfer many people who worked on the project over to maintaining the new system of pipes, and keeping everything running smoothly and clean. Some aspects weren't glorious but somebody had to keep the toilets clean, and at least they were all unionized.
The heavy cruiser ordered from the USR also finished before the year's end. The large, well armed and armoured ship cut an imposing image. Its deck covered in large cannons, a generation or two ago it'd have been considered a small battleship, before the advent of all big gun dreadnoughts. Its arrival in Alexandria was a cause for celebration among the sailors, who once again enjoyed a selection of gifts sent to them from the shipyard workers. Its arrival also meant that Egypt finally had a decent navy for an industrializing power. It was utterly dwarfed by the fleets of the Entente and Comintern, but a decent force compared to the Christian League's undermanned and scattered fleets.
Once news of it spread, the Christian League publicly denounced any relations between Egypt and the Black Sea Pact. Macedonian in particular sent several veiled threats to Alexandria, but Marcato readily countered them that it was seeking peace with Egypt's neighbours. The Venetian signing off on it wasn't enough to assuage their concerns.
Macedonia could plainly see the slow but steady build up of Egypt's military in the Sinai Peninsula. Its modernization and expansion programs were becoming obvious to Macedonia too. It was tough to miss the construction of forts, bases, and railways to keep the peninsula protected. Macedonia had responded by slowly increasing its own forces around the Suez Canal and building more fortifications. It could see though that it would be flanked on both sides.
The treaty with the Black Sea Pact was the straw that broke the camel's back, so to speak. Macedonia needed more than diplomatic reassurances that Egypt wasn't planning anything, assurances that it didn't truly believe. It needed something material. Ambassador Pavlotis made his presence known again by visiting Issa's office.
"You understand why His Majesty is concerned that your claims of maintaining the peace may not be entirely honest," Pavlotis said, smiling ever so politely at Issa. "We have been nothing but neighbourly to your administration, yet more soldiers pour into the Sinai and fortify the border with our close ally."
"I'm sure that you understand that in order to make peace you must prepare for war," Issa replied, raising a hand and turning his palm upwards. "We must be able to defend ourselves."
"Is the protection offered by Macedonia and Venice not enough? We are the guardians of your Mandate. It's a little insulting that you'd need more than us to protect you from non-existent threats," Pavlotis placed a hand on his chest, as if wounded by the prospect. "Who's there to threaten you? Maghreb is the rogue state, not the Kingdom of Jerusalem."
"It's for keeping the nomadic tribes in line and securing the Mandate from any internal disturbance," Issa readily answered. "We've been entirely fair and honest with your dealings with Macedonia."
The ambassador rested a hand on his chin. "You have, which is why I'm here to negotiate a settlement with you, rather than deliver an ultimatum. His Majesty believes in maintaining neighbourly relations with our protectorate." His smile grew wider as he began to list Macedonia's demands and counter proposals it'd accept…
===
Sinai Peninsula "Negotiation"
Macedonia recognizes that the Egyptian military in Sinai could pose a threat to its control over the Suez Canal and Levant. The numerous concessions given to Macedonia however has stayed their hand from acting unilaterally, instead they will give Egypt the chance to pick their poison.
Macedonia wants Egypt's military out of Sinai completely and all forts already built will be torn down. No soldiers, ships, or reservists will be allowed to be stationed in the peninsula, and all armories removed for a demilitarized zone established across the Sinai, and around the Suez Canal.
It is also willing to take the entire peninsula off Egypt's hands with a lump sum purchase, rather than seizing it by force. What it does with the peninsula afterwards would be completely out of Egypt's control. It's paid to look the other way and lose the east flank on the Suez Canal.
Macedonia would also accept a decrease in Egypt's military size and potency. The standing army would be cut in half down to 40k soldiers, all heavy weapons and vehicles destroyed, and an end of its reserve system. Egypt's navy would be scrapped down to a single destroyer. The remaining military would be primarily infantry and cavalry with little artillery. One that would pose little threat to Macedonia or Levant's forts.
Ambassador Pavlotis is interested in hearing possible counter proposals, should Egypt have any…
Must pick one.
[ ][MAC] Demilitarize Sinai and Suez Canal
[ ][MAC] Sell Sinai. Gain +1 Budget.
[ ][MAC] Disarm Military
[ ][MAC] Break diplomatic ties with Black Sea Pact. Requires one other option be picked.
[ ][MAC] Write In:
[ ][MAC] Reject all demands
===
The cabinet hastily calls an emergency meeting to discuss the issue. None are thrilled by any of the options presented, but suspected that this day would come. Suggestions are thrown out on how to get around each of the proposed "settlements" with Macedonia.
Khouri believes that the Bedouins of the peninsula could be armed to wage an insurgency against Macedonia and Levant. It'd give the already well armed tribes literal tons of modern weaponry and officers to coordinate with them. While geared towards the sale of the peninsula, if it's turned into a demilitarized zone the Bedouins would act as a reserve garrison force in the event of a future invasion, buying time for the regular army to intervene. It would however mean giving weapons to tribes largely indifferent to the government, which would be a problem if Alexandria ever wanted to end their pseudo-independence.
He also believes that if Egypt is forced to disarm its military that much of its weaponry and vehicles could be transferred to Maghreb through fire sales and smuggling. The demobilized soldiers would be sent to Maghreb as foreign volunteers and tourists to join their military. It'd keep them trained and armed, but outside of Alexandria's immediate control when the eventual war breaks out. It'd be less than ideal since it'd take time for their most veteran and mechanized forces to return to the country when they'd need them most.
Issa however thinks the weapons and soldiers should be sent to the Arab League. It'd keep them closer to Egypt rather than on the Numidian Front in Maghreb. It'd give the Arab League a much needed boost to deal with Levant and Syria. Neither option was ideal though, and the party heads agreed that disarming would be the worst of all options, even if it left them in total control of Sinai.
There was also the possibility of issuing a mobilization order and risking war with Macedonia. The military was in better shape than it was a year ago from the modernization and expansion efforts. The standing army had increased in size and firepower, the air force had a small but growing cadre of pilots, and the navy was finishing up its shakedown runs of the heavy cruiser. It was less than ideal though, and would likely trigger a wider war with the Christian League depending on how things turned out.
There are also a few ideas thrown around by other members of the cabinet…
No limit. Pick as many as you want as long as it's valid.
[ ][EGY] Arm Sinai Bedouins
[ ][EGY] Transfer arms and demobilized soldiers to Maghreb. Requires Disarm Military.
[ ][EGY] Transfer arms and demobilized soldiers to the Arab League. Requires Disarm Military. Which country do they go to?
-[ ] Yemen. Costs 1 Budget.
OR
-[ ] Nejd.
[ ][EGY] Mobilize the military. Prepare for war. Opens a sub-vote on strategy. Requires Reject all demands.
[ ][EGY] Write In:
===
Please vote by plan. Write ins require approval and are subject to veto.
Escalation. How you act though would determine how far it escalates, like say trying to seize the canal vs hunkering down and waiting for them to make the first move.
There's a serious risk of war, but also foreign diplomatic or military intervention.
There's a fair amount of resources in Sinai, so there's a real trade off to arming the Bedouins unless we can come to terms to exploit its oil fields and mineral deposits, and lending our military to Nejd is way too risky. The risk of our forces being squandered and abused by a negligent government wary of their ideology is intolerable.
-[ ][MAC] Write In: It sadens the Egyptian mandate to inform the macedonian king that if They, and his gobernment, continue to try to infringe on a Venetian mandate we will be forced to to deport all macedonian nationals in Egypt and nationalize their lands along with stoping our exports of grain and cotton to them we might also have to publish incriminating information about a certain macedonian's sexual preferences.
@Fission Battery, is the write in valid? If so, how effective would it be?
We know that they need our grain to maintain food prices cheap so that the poor don't strain but: How dependent are they on our grain? Are we talking about bread riots or simply an increase in living expenses?
That they were willing to negotiate with us about about the price of the cotton farms means that they have an interest in protecting them: How far does that interest go?
Also, did Marcato share the information about the homosexual leanings of the guy that was supposed to be the governor of Egypt with the rest of the government or would it be OOC if Issa knew about it?
-[ ][MAC] Write In: It sadens the Egyptian mandate to inform the macedonian king that if They, and his gobernment, continue to try to infringe on a Venetian mandate we will be forced to to deport all macedonian nationals in Egypt and nationalize their lands along with stoping our exports of grain and cotton to them we might also have to publish incriminating information about a certain macedonian's sexual preferences.
@Fission Battery, is the write in valid? If so, how effective would it be?
Getting Venice involved is valid, but otherwise that's Reject with extra steps. In fact it's an outright declaration of war.
We know that they need our grain to maintain food prices cheap so that the poor don't strain but: How dependent are they on our grain? Are we talking about bread riots or simply an increase in living expenses?
That they were willing to negotiate with us about about the price of the cotton farms means that they have an interest in protecting them: How far does that interest go?
Also, did Marcato share the information about the homosexual leanings of the guy that was supposed to be the governor of Egypt with the rest of the government or would it be OOC if Issa knew about it?
They aren't dependent on Egyptian grain. They just liked having cheap grain. You also already cut their access to cheap grain by not continuing the deal with them when the AENC entered office.
They're willing to go to war with Egypt to retain control over those cotton plantations. They don't need them for their government to remain float budget. They want them for massive profits and access to high quality but cheap cotton.
Marcato did not share that Iskandar Drakos was gay/bi, and Iskandar left the country years ago. It also wouldn't matter that much since royalty getting up to "weird stuff" is somewhat expected and shut down in Macedonian media.
You could take the canal without too much difficult. You have local superiority in numbers and firepower, even after they've started to increase the garrison. It's what follows afterwards that concerns the military. Levant could invade, which would be an issue, since you'd need to capture the canal then deploy your forces into Sinai to push them out. Macedonia would likely draw forces from Greece, Crete, and Cyprus to either invade Egypt or help Levant push. The large border with Turkey means they're unlikely to move too many troops away to focus on Egypt, but the canal is very lucrative and they'd hate to lose control of it.
There is also the concern of the Entente intervening to seize the canal to keep maritime traffic flowing through it. While they've been tolerant of Egypt to a point, they do have their limits and would turn it into a zone under their direct control and force a demilitarized zone around it. Italy or Burgundy might seize it. You could call on the Arab League to intervene, which risks escalating the war further, but opens up a new front on Levant. And at that point it's a question of if it'll stay as a localized skirmish/war or turn into a general conflict with the Christian League.
Poland and Bohemia don't care. They'll continue selling arms but won't put boots on the ground. Aragon will care but moving troops to support Macedonia means leaving itself or Numidia undermanned, so it's likely to leave it in Levant and Syria's hands to deal with.
@Fission Battery if we were to sabotage the Suez Canal instead of trying to hold it would the international repercussions be detrimental to our allies (The Internationale, Black Sea Pact and Arab League)?
Can we also propose to make the Canal an international zone to defuse the tension? The intention wouldn't be to solve the tension but rather to invite the other European powers to fight over the ownership of the canal given that the Macedonians seem weaker than, for example, Burgundy. The objective would be to distract them with other problems so we can differ the decision to the future (when we are better prepared).
@Fission Battery if we were to sabotage the Suez Canal instead of trying to hold it would the international repercussions be detrimental to our allies (The Internationale, Black Sea Pact and Arab League)?
Can we also propose to make the Canal an international zone to defuse the tension? The intention wouldn't be to solve the tension but rather to invite the other European powers to fight over the ownership of the canal given that the Macedonians seem weaker than, for example, Burgundy. The objective would be to distract them with other problems so we can differ the decision to the future (when we are better prepared).
Sinking ships into the canal is a valid [EGY] response though it will provoke international outcry from the market disruptions. Egyptian's debtors would likely demand immediate payments, which would require selling off government assets or taking out more loans to do, since your current Budget is -2.
Yes inviting other countries to manage the canal is valid, as is trying to turn it into an international zone. You can also invoke Venice to see if they might have their own stake in the situation. There is the risk though of that creating legitimacy for other countries to interfere in Egyptian politics and make similar demands as Macedonia to secure the canal for themselves or garrison it with more soldiers. It's a risk trade off, possibly remove Macedonia as an immediate military threat but replace it with the Entente running it instead.
[ ][MAC] Write In: Get Venice involved on the crisis along with Arcadia and Lotharingia too by argueing that the Macedonians are putting the Suez canal, and thus the international market at jeopardy by attempting to start a war over unimportant colonial holdings. Sue for the canal to become an international zone (from which the mediators can profit).
We have to decide if the delay to the expected war with the Christian League will benefit Egypt more than the costs of the concessions that we would have to give to Macedonia. Do we expect say a few more years of additional development before the 1921 Arab Conference to outweigh the loss of the strategic depth of the Sinai or the official disarmament of the Egyptian military (even if we salvage some of it by sneaking equipment and personnel to allies)? If not, we should prepare for war starting now.
Would sneaking our arms and soldiers to our allies even work? Maghreb, Yemen, and Nejd are known enemies of the Christian League. Wouldn't the Christian League find the sudden arrival of large numbers of military equipment and personnel with an Egyptian accent on one of these countries suspicious? Additionally, I doubt that we can sneak the cruiser and the destroyers out of Egypt. They are too big and obvious to transfer.
If we are to pick a poison, demilitarizing the Sinai and Suez Canal is probably the least bad option even if it is basically handing over the Sinai to Levant at the start of a war. Selling the Sinai would allow the Christian League to heavily fortify the Sinai against us and selling Egyptian land to a European power would potentially badly damage the AENC's anti-colonial appeal.
I feel that military disarmament (especially an end to the reserve system) could be too big of a concession and might outweigh the benefits of delaying the war.
