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Industrialization Quest
- Thread starter Rockeye
- Start date
- Original
- Location
- USA
[X] Large watermill. Construction: 16 Profit Burned 2 Profit Invested, 8 months, in two stages. Produces: 2d4 + 1 Profit/quarter. Inoperable during Winter. Profit can further increase up to 2d6 + 2 if you secure additional grain.
Switching vote since the 2 stage and only needing 8 for the first does allow us to finish it before end of fall changing fall and winter to 8 to 16 and allowing us to do the iron mine this spring.
Switching vote since the 2 stage and only needing 8 for the first does allow us to finish it before end of fall changing fall and winter to 8 to 16 and allowing us to do the iron mine this spring.
- Location
- USA
So not at my desktop but here is what we need to consider for these chocies- does largest mill finishing in fall this year provide better overall roi when you continue to spring of next year and for the small can we get the funds to start the big mill in fall so it finishes spring of next year and if so do the additional assets and investments outweigh going big mill first.
Some things to keep in mind:
Small mill wants crop rotation in spring so 13 profit burned in spring and needing 8 profit for 2nd month of fall and 10 3rd month of winter for the big mill on top of 10 for fine.
Big mill wants to start 1st or 2nd month of spring to finish in time to be used in fall. Then it wants to grab crop rotation next spring. That is 8 profit 1st/2nd month of spring and 10 2nd/3rd month of summer.
Some things to keep in mind:
Small mill wants crop rotation in spring so 13 profit burned in spring and needing 8 profit for 2nd month of fall and 10 3rd month of winter for the big mill on top of 10 for fine.
Big mill wants to start 1st or 2nd month of spring to finish in time to be used in fall. Then it wants to grab crop rotation next spring. That is 8 profit 1st/2nd month of spring and 10 2nd/3rd month of summer.
- Location
- USA
[X] Large watermill. Construction: 16 Profit Burned 2 Profit Invested, 8 months, in two stages. Produces: 2d4 + 1 Profit/quarter. Inoperable during Winter. Profit can further increase up to 2d6 + 2 if you secure additional grain.
- Location
- somewhere
Small mill is 3x 1d2 which has an expected value of 4.5 for this year. Large mill is 1x 2d4+1 which is an expected value of 6 for this year. If you want the large mill for next year we're better off in every way just starting it now. The only valid case of upgrading involves upgrading in for year 3.
Decided to compare building the watermill right now vs in time for next spring:
Actual money will be higher as the 30% to get some from the blacksmith is not included, and the in time for spring plan has a lot of room for investments(including convinving the locals to start using crop rotation).
| build now | in time for spring | small + buying the farm | |
| turn 4(buy paper for 1), start of spring | watermill -8, 2 for other investments | 9 for other investments | small mill -3, 7 for other investments |
| turn 5: Horse collar money comes in(5) | 7 for other investments | 14 for other investments | farm -10, 2 for other investments |
| turn 6 Crown Granaries Supply Charter +2 | 9 for other investments | 16 for other investments | |
| turn 7, start of summer | small mill operational +1D2, 3-4 for other investments | ||
| turn 8 | watermill -10, need to earn 1 before here | +1D2 mill income, 4-6 for other investments | |
| turn 9 | |||
| turn 10, start of fall | watermill -8, 7 for other investments | ||
| turn 11 | +1D2 mill income, 2-3 Farm income, 7-10 for other investments | ||
| turn 12 Crown Granaries Supply Charter +4 if no crop failure | watermill refunds 2, watermill produces 2D4+1 | 11 for other investments | 11-14 for other investments |
| turn 13, start of winter | |||
| turn 14 taxes -10 +1 stipend | if we get more then 6 from the mill we have enough for taxes | watermill -10, need to earn 8 before now | 2-5 for other investments |
| turn 15 | |||
| turn 16, start of next spring | |||
| turn 17 | |||
| turn 18 Crown Granaries Supply Charter +2 | watermill produces 2D4+1 | watermill refunds 2, watermill produces 2D4+1 | +1D2 mill income, 2-3 Farm income |
Actual money will be higher as the 30% to get some from the blacksmith is not included, and the in time for spring plan has a lot of room for investments(including convinving the locals to start using crop rotation).
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- Location
- USA
A nice breakdown. Do you factor in that we can expect enough to pick up crop rotation next spring if we do mill now?
jwolfe_beta
Semi Genre-Savvy Overlord
- Location
- Canada
Can we actually bank on crop rotation?
There is the cost and a non-negligible chance of failure. Also the bonus profit comes from 'additional grain' so we might be able to find said excess from nearby villages etc.
Solarstream
It's all in the cards
- Location
- Zombie World
- Pronouns
- He/Him
[X] Large watermill.
Also, did we ever get confirmation on what the side-story / omake policy is?
Also, did we ever get confirmation on what the side-story / omake policy is?
We can probably afford it next spring in both large mill plans as the watermill will provide 2D4+1 in the spring so getting the rest of the needed cash should be doable as in both plans there is a period of time where there is enough profit to expand the iron mine boosting our income from the blacksmith. the build the farm in time for next spring allows us to try and convince some farmers to start crop rotation this year once the village likes us more and we have done the intrigue action to make crop rotation easier.
Added later: the Crown Granaries Supply Charter also gives 2 profit at the end of spring so we have 2 more then listed above
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- Location
- USA
Crop rotation asset itself gives 2 to 3 each spring and fall so it has value in it's own right.
Keep in mind the assets activate at the end of each quarter and as it is winter and fall we are gaining 8 to 16 with mill online and 2 investment coming back pushes us to 10 to 18. With wealth gain from earlier in the year and other asset improvements that can push the autumn and winter numbers up we should have the profit for crop rotation in the spring. If everything breaks right we might be able to grab it in the fall this year
Winter 1138 Report and Rumor Mill
Rockeye
Plausible Engineer
- Location
- Midwestern U.S.
Vote's still open.
Winter 1138 Report
You started this quarter with 15 Profit of assets.
At the end of March 1138, you had 10 Profit and 5 Profit invested for 1 month.
Assets generating money:
Crown Granaries Supply Charter --> 0
Crown Stipend for Improvement of Lands --> 1 Profit
Contracted Blacksmith --> 52 --> 0 Profit
End of Winter 1139 money status: 11 Profit, with 5 Profit invested for 1 month.
Nesiwald Rumor Mill
New Steward seems alright. The Lord Governor sent us a man from the built-up part of Veschwar to replace old Ludwig. Rumors say he can't even hold a blade straight, and the little knife he carries doesn't do anything to dispel those rumors. But he seems friendly enough, and he paid to fix up the church. Everyone seems to agree that he'll be alright as long as he doesn't start cheating folk of their crops or anything. The man's got some strange ideas in his head though, so we'll have to watch what he does next just in case.
Better winter than average. Every year you expect a few folk to die, the cold making their health worse until they can't bear it, but this year the winter was fairly easy all things considered. Only three toddlers and two elders were lost this winter. Most of the animals are fine too, and there's twenty or more new babies since last year. That's pretty good cause for celebration! They say that an easy winter this year means the winter will be worse next year, but surely that's just an old wives' tale.
Scandal! The hunters, herbalists, and lumberjacks who spend their days in the forests can be a bit strange, but nobody expected such indecency! It seems that Artur Gable, Greta Halfwood, and Claire Dunners have all been carrying on together without any hint of a marriage, and now Greta is pregnant, and refusing to be wed to anyone under any circumstances! How's she going to take care of the child without a husband? Artur's said that he's willing to take responsibility. Maybe she'll see sense and wed him after all. Poor Claire's parents have locked her up in her own house, more or less, and want to wait and see if she shows in a few months before deciding what to do about it.
Other Rumor Mills locked.
Winter 1138 Report
You started this quarter with 15 Profit of assets.
At the end of March 1138, you had 10 Profit and 5 Profit invested for 1 month.
Assets generating money:
Crown Granaries Supply Charter --> 0
Crown Stipend for Improvement of Lands --> 1 Profit
Contracted Blacksmith --> 52 --> 0 Profit
End of Winter 1139 money status: 11 Profit, with 5 Profit invested for 1 month.
Nesiwald Rumor Mill
New Steward seems alright. The Lord Governor sent us a man from the built-up part of Veschwar to replace old Ludwig. Rumors say he can't even hold a blade straight, and the little knife he carries doesn't do anything to dispel those rumors. But he seems friendly enough, and he paid to fix up the church. Everyone seems to agree that he'll be alright as long as he doesn't start cheating folk of their crops or anything. The man's got some strange ideas in his head though, so we'll have to watch what he does next just in case.
Better winter than average. Every year you expect a few folk to die, the cold making their health worse until they can't bear it, but this year the winter was fairly easy all things considered. Only three toddlers and two elders were lost this winter. Most of the animals are fine too, and there's twenty or more new babies since last year. That's pretty good cause for celebration! They say that an easy winter this year means the winter will be worse next year, but surely that's just an old wives' tale.
Scandal! The hunters, herbalists, and lumberjacks who spend their days in the forests can be a bit strange, but nobody expected such indecency! It seems that Artur Gable, Greta Halfwood, and Claire Dunners have all been carrying on together without any hint of a marriage, and now Greta is pregnant, and refusing to be wed to anyone under any circumstances! How's she going to take care of the child without a husband? Artur's said that he's willing to take responsibility. Maybe she'll see sense and wed him after all. Poor Claire's parents have locked her up in her own house, more or less, and want to wait and see if she shows in a few months before deciding what to do about it.
Other Rumor Mills locked.
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Powerofmind
In Madness Fallen
- Location
- United States
I would argue we push for four field, without buying out a farm. It's cheaper, has greater effects the longer it's in use (it's not going to really kick in until year 2 regardless), we can always buy up some farmland later, and will still ensure we get the +1 automatic profit from the large mill next spring without paying another large burn cost. It's a little harder to get it going, but we just boosted local approval and we have that intrigue boost action, and we still have a month or two to improve approval further before trying it.
If we made concerted efforts to continue raising approval at least one more time next turn, we would have difficulty 60 + the intrigue action (assuming a roll+stat bonus of 50, the intrigue action should return an additonal +20 to four field), making it difficulty 40 overall, so we'd only need a raw roll of 8 to succeed the convince action from all the stewardship bonuses we have, which should be enough to secure the bonus for next turn.
Alternatively, we could try to bull through the 70 difficulty we'll have this turn on the first month of spring, and assuming everything else goes the same, would still only need a raw roll of 18 to pass the check. It might? be better at getting the change to be effective by year two, though I would ask @Rockeye to weigh in here.
All in all, it's a 4 profit investment until fall, and looking at the table above, 4 profit locked up won't be too restrictive for any plans we have over the course of the year.
Compared to tenant farming, which we should not expect to return any profit year 1, or if it does, only 1-2 of it, which will cost us 10 profit burnt, and up the winter fee 'need X extra by now through other investments' to 18, which would be utterly impossible. I have doubts we could pull the full 8 out of our ass by then, let alone twice that and then some, and I don't want to risk being hugely in debt or on the take just to have the best ROI possible next year, and hope we can turn it around quickly.
If we made concerted efforts to continue raising approval at least one more time next turn, we would have difficulty 60 + the intrigue action (assuming a roll+stat bonus of 50, the intrigue action should return an additonal +20 to four field), making it difficulty 40 overall, so we'd only need a raw roll of 8 to succeed the convince action from all the stewardship bonuses we have, which should be enough to secure the bonus for next turn.
Alternatively, we could try to bull through the 70 difficulty we'll have this turn on the first month of spring, and assuming everything else goes the same, would still only need a raw roll of 18 to pass the check. It might? be better at getting the change to be effective by year two, though I would ask @Rockeye to weigh in here.
All in all, it's a 4 profit investment until fall, and looking at the table above, 4 profit locked up won't be too restrictive for any plans we have over the course of the year.
Compared to tenant farming, which we should not expect to return any profit year 1, or if it does, only 1-2 of it, which will cost us 10 profit burnt, and up the winter fee 'need X extra by now through other investments' to 18, which would be utterly impossible. I have doubts we could pull the full 8 out of our ass by then, let alone twice that and then some, and I don't want to risk being hugely in debt or on the take just to have the best ROI possible next year, and hope we can turn it around quickly.
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Rockeye
Plausible Engineer
- Location
- Midwestern U.S.
That doesn't sound right if you just take the action directly. You get +Stewardship skill and +15 from Census. Depending on how well the intrigue action to make four-field easier goes, if you take it, it might get that easy, though.
Rockeye
Plausible Engineer
- Location
- Midwestern U.S.
You can write them but I'm wary of promising specific bonuses for them. If I like them I may give a bonus anyway, but no promises.
- Location
- Canada
Given the new information, I'm willing to change my mind. With less burned cost, and the possibility to beg or borrow our way around our payment obligations, locking in the big profit machine just makes sense. It was always the best long-term option; the only question is whether or not we can make it work in the short-term. The analysis posted so far suggests that it's close enough to feasible to be worth pursuing... and even if something goes wrong and we are otherwise delayed, such that we lose out on a season's profits, we'll still be able to do business, and we'll make up any shortfall next year.
[X] Large watermill. Construction: 16 Profit Burned 2 Profit Invested, 8 months, in two stages. Produces: 2d4 + 1 Profit/quarter. Inoperable during Winter. Profit can further increase up to 2d6 + 2 if you secure additional grain.
[X] Large watermill. Construction: 16 Profit Burned 2 Profit Invested, 8 months, in two stages. Produces: 2d4 + 1 Profit/quarter. Inoperable during Winter. Profit can further increase up to 2d6 + 2 if you secure additional grain.
Also worth keeping in mind:
If need be we can spend a couple of actions on this if we need to make up for shortfalls, or require more resources to invest into other projects.
Powerofmind
In Madness Fallen
- Location
- United States
Assuming a moderate success (at +20 compared to the great success of +40) for the intrigue action (I'm figuring anything from 10-20 over passing, or 45-55), +17 stewardship and +15 census, and a difficulty of 70, net bonuses tally up to 52, which is indeed why we shouldn't need much more than an 18 to at least barely pass.
Would the river's size or geography allow for the construction of additional factilities? A water-powered saw- or paper-mill, for example?
