Hogwarts Sect of Witchcraft and Wizardry

[Epic Bygones]

I think it really depends on how big the bonus is, and what the techniques look like.

We want Divination's bonus because effectively it's a source of Sect Points from social rolls. But if it's just a +1, that's only ~0.5 of a Sect Point this year. Which I would rate below -1 Charms DC from Runes. Of course, if it's something like +10 then it's amazing and we should probably spend some Sect Points on Divination this year to cap it - as it'll be worth it long term.

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Whatever bonus it is, it's not only for sect points, but also for avoiding the malus from 10 or less rolls on social, don't forget. I think 1DC bonus for Charms really doesn't compare.

And I wouldn't be surprised if another benefit of Divination would be extra actions strictly for social options, either immediately or at some key milestones.

 

[CedeTheBees]

[X][Plan] Plan More Socials

[X][Social] The central hub of immortal activity in London is Diagon Alley. Now that you're much more knowledgeable about the world of Qi, you'd like a second look at the place. Perhaps put a number to your actual wealth and do some window shopping

[X][Social] Hermione has invited you and Dad to meet her own parents, to tell the adults comforting stories about your time at Hogwarts and set their minds at ease.

[X][Social] You've managed to bring a doodle or two off the page - literally, in some cases - but you'd like to strive for more. Find a model and really put your skills to the test, both artistically and in the realm of Qi animation.
-[X] Dad

 

[Edkose]

[X][Plan] Plan More Socials

[X][Social] The central hub of immortal activity in London is Diagon Alley. Now that you're much more knowledgeable about the world of Qi, you'd like a second look at the place. Perhaps put a number to your actual wealth and do some window shopping.
[X][Social] Hermione has invited you and Dad to meet her own parents, to tell the adults comforting stories about your time at Hogwarts and set their minds at ease.
[X][Social] You've got Dad to agree to a weekend trip to the countryside for you, visiting Mandy's clan and reservation.

 

[Karnax626]

[X][Plan] Plan More Socials
-[X][Training] Arithmancy
--Token
-[X][Training] Divination
--Token
-[X][Training] Arithmancy x2
--Token
-[X][Training] Divination x2
--Token
-[X][Runes] Strike
--[X] Rune of Alacrity

[X][Plan] Plan Meridians
-[X][Training] Meridians
-[X][Training] Divination x2
-- 2x Token
-[X][Training] Arithmancy x2
--2x Token
-[X][Runes] Strike
--[X] Rune of Alacrity

I'll add in what socials I want later, as well as chits and stuff.
I still want to spend the second chit on another Transfiguration though, for the same reasons I stated last time.
Edit:
[X][Social] The central hub of immortal activity in London is Diagon Alley. Now that you're much more knowledgeable about the world of Qi, you'd like a second look at the place. Perhaps put a number to your actual wealth and do some window shopping

[X][Social] Hermione has invited you and Dad to meet her own parents, to tell the adults comforting stories about your time at Hogwarts and set their minds at ease.

[X][Social] You've managed to bring a doodle or two off the page - literally, in some cases - but you'd like to strive for more. Find a model and really put your skills to the test, both artistically and in the realm of Qi animation.
-[X] Dad
Edit2: Updated training action order for efficiency.

 

[Epic Bygones]

I'm assuming by the lack of option in the last update and by when it took place last turn, that the Chit vote will happen later, not now.

 

[Karf]

Just to make sure, @Karf , the total includes the Transfiguration bonus, right?

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Yes. In my quest to compose a cohesive dictionary, a roll is the die face, a bonus is what gets added on and a total roll is the sum. I'd call it just total, but that's potentially clashing with the sum of all total rolls.

I.e roll + bonus = total roll; total roll 1 + total roll 2 + ... = total

I'm assuming by the lack of option in the last update and by when it took place last turn, that the Chit vote will happen later, not now.

Click to shrink...

This is correct.

 

[Pempelune]

[X][Plan] Beginner 2 Divination Optimized

[X][Social] The central hub of immortal activity in London is Diagon Alley. Now that you're much more knowledgeable about the world of Qi, you'd like a second look at the place. Perhaps put a number to your actual wealth and do some window shopping.
[X][Social] You've got Dad to agree to a weekend trip to the countryside for you, visiting Mandy's clan and reservation.
[X][Social] You've managed to bring a doodle or two off the page - literally, in some cases - but you'd like to strive for more. Find a model and really put your skills to the test, both artistically and in the realm of Qi animation.

 

[TimEd]

[X][Plan] Beginner 2 Divination Optimized

[X][Social] The central hub of immortal activity in London is Diagon Alley. Now that you're much more knowledgeable about the world of Qi, you'd like a second look at the place. Perhaps put a number to your actual wealth and do some window shopping

[X][Social] Hermione has invited you and Dad to meet her own parents, to tell the adults comforting stories about your time at Hogwarts and set their minds at ease.

[X][Social] You've got Dad to agree to a weekend trip to the countryside for you, visiting Mandy's clan and reservation.

[X][Social] You've managed to bring a doodle or two off the page - literally, in some cases - but you'd like to strive for more. Find a model and really put your skills to the test, both artistically and in the realm of Qi animation.
-[X] Dad

 

[sleepypanda]

[X][Plan] Plus Runes
[X][Social] The central hub of immortal activity in London is Diagon Alley. Now that you're much more knowledgeable about the world of Qi, you'd like a second look at the place. Perhaps put a number to your actual wealth and do some window shopping

[X][Social] Hermione has invited you and Dad to meet her own parents, to tell the adults comforting stories about your time at Hogwarts and set their minds at ease.

[X][Social] You've got Dad to agree to a weekend trip to the countryside for you, visiting Mandy's clan and reservation.

 

[Nando]

The DC for Divination is 15, for Arithmancy and Charms is 13 with the token and 15 without, and for Meridians is 13 with the token and 14 without. 7d23 for token actions and 5d21 for tokenless ones.

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I'm really not firm in the system, but successes in those rolls will create dice that are rolled for progress, right?

So we can get the average number of progress rolls we should expect from these actions:

Action	Average Successes
Token vs DC 15	2.43
Token vs DC 14	2.74
Token vs DC 13	3.04
no Token vs DC 15	1.43
no Token vs DC 14	1.67

See here.

So when taking two actions with Tokens for Divination we should expect to get four to five progress rolls. Add in an action with no Token, we should be at a good six rolls.
And so on.

 

[Epic Bygones]

I'm really not firm in the system, but successes in those rolls will create dice that are rolled for progress, right?

So we can get the average number of progress rolls we should expect from these actions:

Action	Average Successes
Token vs DC 15	2.43
Token vs DC 14	2.74
Token vs DC 13	3.04
no Token vs DC 15	1.43
no Token vs DC 14	1.67

See here.

So when taking two actions with Tokens for Divination we should expect to get four to five progress rolls. Add in an action with no Token, we should be at a good six rolls.
And so on.

Click to shrink...

Thanks! Not quite what I was looking for, though. Some folks have made programs to simulate rolls (both pools and progress ones) and create more or less precise percentages indicating the likelihood of getting # of points in # of actions, also including particular quirks of the system based on our character skills, techniques, etc.

 

[FriedIce]

I'm really not firm in the system, but successes in those rolls will create dice that are rolled for progress, right?

So we can get the average number of progress rolls we should expect from these actions:

Action	Average Successes
Token vs DC 15	2.43
Token vs DC 14	2.74
Token vs DC 13	3.04
no Token vs DC 15	1.43
no Token vs DC 14	1.67

See here.

So when taking two actions with Tokens for Divination we should expect to get four to five progress rolls. Add in an action with no Token, we should be at a good six rolls.
And so on.

Click to shrink...

To build on what Epic said above we used this a lot in the early months of the quest, but we found that average successes and median progress rolls weren't a very good indicator for what the actual result would be. They also don't do a great result of capturing what the range of results are and tend to encourage more risky plan making. I was as guilty of this as anyone else.

We moved to percentage ranges as a thread after we had a couple of turns where we badly underperformed what we expected. As an added bonuses, the results simulations you need to run to calculate the ranges can also be adapted to include the increasingly complicated bonuses that we have access to.

 

[zinay]

So, one thing to keep in mind is that the order of our actions matter due to the familiar bonuses. The tokenless action should be last and we should alternate between divination and arithmancy. This doesn't necessarily affect the results that much, but every bit counts.

For Divination(token),Arithmancy(token),Divination(token),Arithmancy(token),Divination(no token) we get a 82.5%/97.0% chance to reach 550/350 in Divination and 82.2%/97.1% chance to reach 550/350 in Arithmancy.

For Arithmancy(token),Divination(token),Arithmancy(token),Divination(token),Arithmancy(no token) we get 92.7%/99.2% chance to reach 550/350 in Arithmancy and 63.2%/90.4% chance to reach 550/350 in Divination

While I can't give the precise reasons, doing the actions in these exact orders give the best odds by a couple percent.

if we don't use the tokenless action on Arithmancy/Divination

For Divination(token),Arithmancy(token),Divination(token),Arithmancy(token) we get a 60.7%/89.5% chance to reach 550/350 in Divination and 82.1%/97.0% chance to reach 550/350 in Arithmancy. The last action has a 60.9% chance to reach 115 progress for charms or a 9.3%/39.9%/70.9%/88.5%/92.3% chance to reach 5/4/3/2/1 meridians

For Arithmancy(token),Divination(token),Arithmancy(token),Divination(token) we get 81.0%/96.7% chance to reach 550/350 in Arithmancy and 63.4%/90.4% chance to reach 550/350 in Divination. The last action has a 61.1% chance to reach 115 progress for charms or a 9.3%/40.1%/70.8%/88.5%/92.1% chance to reach 5/4/3/2/1 meridians

I can go do the odds if we put one of the token actions into charms or meridians if people really want, but honestly I don't think I really want to not put 2 token actions into either divination or arithmancy.

 

[FriedIce]

I can go do the odds if we put one of the token actions into charms or meridians if people really want, but honestly I don't think I really want to not put 2 token actions into either divination or arithmancy.

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Thank you for this Zinay, could you also run the odds of getting 92 progress on a token less Ancient Runes (DC15) action following the Arithmancy/Divination/Arithmancy/Divination set if that's not too much work?

 

[Epic Bygones]

Thank you so much, zinay! Given those odds, we should all consider changing plans accordingly, if only to restructure them with the proper action order.

[X][Plan] Beginner 2 Divination Optimized
-[X][Training] Divination
--Token
-[X][Training] Arithmancy
--Token
-[X][Training] Divination
--Token
-[X][Training] Arithmancy
--Token
-[X][Training] Divination
-[X][Runes] Strike
--[X] Rune of Alacrity

82/97% for Beginner 2 and 1 for both Divination and Arithmancy sounds like a great deal to me. We'll get more Meridians with a normal action next month, or any one after that, and 60% for Charms isn't high enough to risk it, and again, it can be done whenever, anyway.

Edit - Approval vote for:
[X][Plan] Plus Runes

And to copypaste my social votes:

[X][Social] You could, purely by coincidence, be at Hogwarts for the day of the make-up exams. And if you happen to cheer on your friends and get an early scoop on who won't be sharing the halls with you come September, you'd consider it a token well spent.

[X][Social] The central hub of immortal activity in London is Diagon Alley. Now that you're much more knowledgeable about the world of Qi, you'd like a second look at the place. Perhaps put a number to your actual wealth and do some window shopping.

[X][Social] Although the time you can spend at Hogwarts is precious, so is the opportunity to actually get to know some of the elders. At worst, they'll just tell you to leave them alone. See what happens when you try to take your lunch at the head table.
-[X] Dumbledore

[X][Social] You've managed to bring a doodle or two off the page - literally, in some cases - but you'd like to strive for more. Find a model and really put your skills to the test, both artistically and in the realm of Qi animation.
-[X] Dad

 

[zinay]

Thank you for this Zinay, could you also run the odds of getting 92 progress on a token less Ancient Runes (DC15) action following the Arithmancy/Divination/Arithmancy/Divination set if that's not too much work?

Click to shrink...

71.3% (for divination first it's 73.0%)

[X][Plan] Beginner 2 Divination Optimized
-[X][Training] Divination
--Token
-[X][Training] Arithmancy
--Token
-[X][Training] Divination
--Token
-[X][Training] Arithmancy
--Token
-[X][Training] Divination
-[X][Runes] Strike
--[X] Rune of Alacrity

 

[Falliant]

[X][Plan] Plan More Socials

[X][Social] The central hub of immortal activity in London is Diagon Alley. Now that you're much more knowledgeable about the world of Qi, you'd like a second look at the place. Perhaps put a number to your actual wealth and do some window shopping.
[X][Social] Hermione has invited you and Dad to meet her own parents, to tell the adults comforting stories about your time at Hogwarts and set their minds at ease.
[X][Social] Although the streets of London aren't exactly Hogwarts, there's still adventure to be had. Bring your new familiar on a tour of the suburbia, who knows what you might find - perhaps there's a fragment of the magical right in your backyard.
[X][Social] You've managed to bring a doodle or two off the page - literally, in some cases - but you'd like to strive for more. Find a model and really put your skills to the test, both artistically and in the realm of Qi animation.
-[X] Dad

 

[BearWolfBoar]

[X][Plan] Beginner 2 Divination Optimized
-[X][Training] Divination
--Token
-[X][Training] Arithmancy
--Token
-[X][Training] Divination
--Token
-[X][Training] Arithmancy
--Token
-[X][Training] Divination
-[X][Runes] Strike
--[X] Rune of Alacrity

[X][Social] Although the time you can spend at Hogwarts is precious, so is the opportunity to actually get to know some of the elders. At worst, they'll just tell you to leave them alone. See what happens when you try to take your lunch at the head table.
-[X] Dumbledore
[X][Social] Hermione has invited you and Dad to meet her own parents, to tell the adults comforting stories about your time at Hogwarts and set their minds at ease
[X][Social] You've got Dad to agree to a weekend trip to the countryside for you, visiting Mandy's clan and reservation.

 

[Vanguard_D]

[X][Plan] Beginner 2 Divination Optimized


[X][Social] Hermione has invited you and Dad to meet her own parents, to tell the adults comforting stories about your time at Hogwarts and set their minds at ease.
[X][Social] You've got Dad to agree to a weekend trip to the countryside for you, visiting Mandy's clan and reservation.

 

[zinay]

thinking about it, I'm increasingly fond of the idea of putting the no token action into runes. While we'd be unlikely to get all 3 objectives (about a 37% chance) we'd have a significantly higher chance of getting at least 2 (around 81%, vs the 67% we have now) Main downside is that we'd have a 10% chance of not getting beginner 1 divination vs the current plan's 3%

 

[DarkmoonFalchion]

[X][Plan] Beginner 2 Divination Optimized

[X][Social] Although the time you can spend at Hogwarts is precious, so is the opportunity to actually get to know some of the elders. At worst, they'll just tell you to leave them alone. See what happens when you try to take your lunch at the head table.
-[X] Dumbledore
[X][Social] Hermione has invited you and Dad to meet her own parents, to tell the adults comforting stories about your time at Hogwarts and set their minds at ease
[X][Social] You've got Dad to agree to a weekend trip to the countryside for you, visiting Mandy's clan and reservation.

 

[Epic Bygones]

thinking about it, I'm increasingly fond of the idea of putting the no token action into runes. While we'd be unlikely to get all 3 objectives (about a 37% chance) we'd have a significantly higher chance of getting at least 2 (around 81%, vs the 67% we have now) Main downside is that we'd have a 10% chance of not getting beginner 1 divination vs the current plan's 3%

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Consider making a plan, then. I'm not totally against it, but 81% is not higher enough than 67% to compensate for going for what is a worse subject in my eyes, for the reasons I explained before. Also, Divination still has the mystery box allure that Runes doesn't have anymore.

Did you get the chance to check the competitiveness of the other techniques/charms, by the way, for Meridian slotting purposes? Chroma-caller is new and the Towel has improved thanks to the Familiar ability we picked last update. Even though I don't think either is enough to replace what we have, I don't have the program to back up that feeling.

Edit - Oh, speaking of which, @Karf , could you tell us more about that "-4 turns until ???" the Towel had in one of its descriptions?

 

[zinay]

[X][Plan] Plus Runes
-[X][Training] Arithmancy
--Token
-[X][Training] Divination
--Token
-[X][Training] Arithmancy
--Token
-[X][Training] Divination
--Token
-[X][Training] Runes
-[X][Runes] Strike
--[X] Rune of Alacrity

 

[Epic Bygones]

I just remembered something:

With your artistic skills you managed to woo over a small spirit known as the Athelas Mossball - an animator who builds a body out of vibrant moss. In your case, a particularly potent herb for healing and medicine.

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Could this become relevant in our potential quest to counter the blood freezing curse? It feels like a stretch for many reasons, but who knows?

 

[zinay]

Rune of Success: As of now, we have 140 dice over 4 turns, which provide 17-23 stacks, representing 8.5-11.5 extra progress per success on the turn it activates, for a total average of 119-219. Overall, not quite as good as some of our other options according to our current stats, but it also scales by far the best of our current options, for one, it scales to the square of the successes we get in a turn, for two it scales really really well to transfiguration up to a point, charging almost 3 times as fast at intermediate transfiguration.

Rune of Wind: at a minimum charge, it provides an average of 4.6-5 (+.2 for every extra charge) progress per success on the turn it activates. Overall, it is harder to use, less effective, and has less scaling than Rune of Success.

Natural springy ball II: Compared to the prior version, this provides .11 dice per success. We want this soon.

Calcification: on activation gives and average boost of 8 progress per success. Has a varying chance of activation. 20% for one success, up to around 40% for 3-6, falling after that (around 20% at 11). Overall, is roughly comparable to water retention. its worse now, better in the medium term, worse in the long term.