Looking at the odds the best (assuming we are allowed to micromanage the order of actions) is ABAB, which gives 85.2% chance for action A and 88.5% for action B. ABBA gives 86.0% for action A and 85.7% for action B
Hogwarts Sect of Witchcraft and Wizardry
- Thread starter Karf
- Start date
- Fantasy
- Location
- Wörms, the half continent
I have managed to work out a way of adding partial Mossball to my simulator without rebuilding the entire thing. It only works for consecutive actions of the same type, but we do a lot of that anyway, a lot of mono-months, so that's fine.
Edit: it doesn't work at all if people start alternating actions like that though
Like, the entire simulator. Blahhh
Edit: it doesn't work at all if people start alternating actions like that though
Like, the entire simulator. BlahhhYeah, I had to rebuild my simulator as well.I have managed to work out a way of adding partial Mossball to my simulator without rebuilding the entire thing. It only works for consecutive actions of the same type, but we do a lot of that anyway, a lot of mono-months, so that's fine.
Edit: it doesn't work at all if people start alternating actions like that though
You mean skill A and skill B, not action A and action B, right? Also, is that with Beginner 1 Runes, or Beginner 2?
Personally, I don't see why we wouldn't be allowed to micromanage the order, given that the mechanics behind the whole skill (CoMC) revolve around interactions between actions, but we might as well just ask the QM. Could you chime in, @Karf ?
I did mean that yes, and these are all assuming beginner 1 runes.
Thanks!
Well, considering the odds (and maybe even the order/structuring) are liable to change with the next 1-2 updates before we can vote for August turn, there's probably no reason to go overboard with early plans and calculations.
I feel for you, Estro and everyone else who has to change the code (or whatever - I understand nothing of what you guys do) every time new mechanics come into play. ^^
Well, considering the odds (and maybe even the order/structuring) are liable to change with the next 1-2 updates before we can vote for August turn, there's probably no reason to go overboard with early plans and calculations.
I feel for you, Estro and everyone else who has to change the code (or whatever - I understand nothing of what you guys do) every time new mechanics come into play. ^^
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Since its confirmed for moss I want to propose the name Polder. It is vaguely appropriate and completely cute name for a pet as a kid while still being something that I could see it sounding respectable as an adult and the moss becomes a terrifying bog monster.
Are you talking order of operations in the plan or priority for learning in general? Gonna copy from Karf because I kept shuffling the elective synergies in my mind.
I'm down for magic math, maybe we can learn magic geometry and make spell circles and such.
I like Tuft, possibly spelled to have "tough" in it, but the allusion to that probably comes through regardless.
- Location
- United Kingdom
Order of operations. No matter what happens this turn I want to go for 2 actions each into Arithmancy and Divination next turn.
On an unrelated note, I'd originally assumed first year was the only one to have an explicit cutoff for kicking people out, but if second year has it as well then it's likely all the other years are the same?
Which changes things a lot, because I'd assumed Morgan Roscrow being the only 7th year Ravenclaw we've seen on screen was because he was in the Quidditch team with us, but now it's possible he's literally Ravenclaw's only seventh year.
It makes me wonder what the typical demographics are like across the years. Could you imagine if one House had a bad time and had like, one year completely empty of disciples?
FriedIce
The Authentic Fake
- Location
- Hyperreality
Huh. That's triggered a thought in me. I think Arithmancy might be the study of Feng Sui in this setting. My reasoning:
1) Magic Geometry -> Magical Room Layout isn't a ridiculous logical jump
2) The two things it benefits (Charms and Transfig) are expys for Artefact Crafting and Arts respectively which both rely on an understanding of (external and internal respectively) Feng Sui
3) The 'mancy' in the name can be explained by Feng Sui's ability to do bootleg divination by measuring the ominousness or auspiciousness of a place or action
4) It's a pretty core (if advanced) part of Xianxia and it doesn't match what we've studied so far, what we've seen of Herbology, Astronomy or Divination, and the themes are all wrong to be Runes.
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So, the merging and harmonization of our 3 dantians, the identification of primal aspect meridian channels, and the internalization of yin-yang. How do these things map on to the 5 milestones for each cultivation, plus the breakthrough itself?
I feel like internalizing yin-yang represents the breakthrough.
There are 5 primal aspects, so it's possible that there's 1 meridian channel for every aspect, whose identification slots well with a set of 5 milestones (probably physical cultivation's).
In this interpretation, then, the merging and harmonizing of our 3 dantians would have to fit with the remaining cultivation (probably spiritual).
Milestone 1: merge the lower dantian with the heart one. Milestone 2: harmonize them. Milestone 3: merge them with the head dantian. Milestone 4: harmonize them. Milestone 5: ???
Or maybe:
Milestone 1: merge the lower dantian with the heart one. Milestone 2: merge the lower dantian with the head one. Milestone 3: merge the heart dantian with the head one. Milestone 4: merge them all. Milestone 5: harmonize them all.
My understanding of the word "merge" makes this final guess weird, though.
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Too early to say, but we can assume that those odds would be even higher after the summer because of all the Electives' benefits.
Still, like I said, Astronomy and Herbology are the highest in my priority list come September, even though they are sub-optimal, and I know there's plenty other questers that have been chomping at the bit to train the former, if not the latter, for a while now.
I know we could go Defense x3, Charms x1 and Meridians x1 for example, so as to then split October evenly between Astronomy and Herbology, and I'm not totally against it, but any later than that and I'd riot.
Still, like I said, Astronomy and Herbology are the highest in my priority list come September, even though they are sub-optimal, and I know there's plenty other questers that have been chomping at the bit to train the former, if not the latter, for a while now.
I know we could go Defense x3, Charms x1 and Meridians x1 for example, so as to then split October evenly between Astronomy and Herbology, and I'm not totally against it, but any later than that and I'd riot.
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Gonna have a second round, but this time with an explicit option of having me choose myself.
You are encouraged to do so.
So, it turns out my simulator was having the mossball give us successes instead of dice, so some of the odds iv'e been giving are a bit too high. For instance, the odds of getting the bonus action in 3/4 actions is 57%/92% Honestly, I'd still go for it, but it's not as good as I said earlier.
Normal actions.
Unfortunate. Still two full turns to go before we can talk actual odds, anyway. We'll see.
As long as you keep on double/triple checking, it'll be fine. XD
- Location
- Wörms, the half continent
It's 1207 progress to get that action milestone, which will give us, effectively, seven more dice (pool dice, which are the core aspect of progress). But it's only 1264 progress in Spirital to get two more dice in our dice pool, which would add effectively 10 more dice per turn (two per action). Now, while Spiritual has - at present - a higher dice threshold than physical, I believe we're planning on taking astronomy relatively soon (?), and more dice per pool is of great benefit to our charms and transfig spells (if we could start to trigger Rainbow Brush twice, which has decent odds in a nine-dice pool, that'd be very good).
I will admit that the odds aren't great (14; 51; 84 for 3,4,5 actions on it), but that will improve as we drop the DC for spiritual (if we drop them to 12 - very achievable - 3 actions shoots up to 56%, and as a bonus since we'd definitely get the 1500 milestone Spritiual still has a benefit for us in the next turn even if we do fail to get to 2500 as the complete monty, unlike Physical).
of course, physical also means we can drop actions for social actions, so yeah. Benefits to both.
Edit: actually if we did a 4/1 Physical Spiritual split, that gives us an 60+% chance to get to the 1500 milestone for spiritual, as well as giving us 99% chance for an extra action. That'd be a net gain of thirteen dice, which is almost two of our current actions. The plus is because I still haven't set it up for mixed actions to get our moss bonus.
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Honestly I was thinking something like 3 physical 2 astronomy and then put some actions into spiritual the next turn. Partly that depends on what we get from the electives as that will influence our final odds.
- Location
- United Kingdom
Without the knowledge of what the elective milestones will give us beyond the threshold reductions, I'm currently leaning towards something like this for the first 3 months:
September: 4x Physical, 1x Charms
October: 3x Astronomy, 3x Herbology
November: 4x Spiritual, 2x Meridians
It gets us the first two milestones in both Spirit and Physique; Apprentice level Astronomy, Herbology and Charms; and 95%+ odds of opening 6 meridians even before our current two meridian bonus/familiar bonus.
September: 4x Physical, 1x Charms
October: 3x Astronomy, 3x Herbology
November: 4x Spiritual, 2x Meridians
It gets us the first two milestones in both Spirit and Physique; Apprentice level Astronomy, Herbology and Charms; and 95%+ odds of opening 6 meridians even before our current two meridian bonus/familiar bonus.
Yea I was leaning towards just grabbing the extra action for physical, but 99% odds with 4 actions is just too tempting unless the summer months unlocks something even better. So I'd say something along the lines of this would be a pretty good outline to start with, and obviously modify it as results alongside boons from Sect points come in.
September: 4 actions to get the second physical cultivation milestone, and an action to open meridians*.
October: 4-5 action to reach the first** apprentice mile, and likely more meridians cause we aren't winning a sect point with 1-2 actions imo.
December/January: Everything on Transfiguration.
December/January: Everything on Charms except 1-2 action on meridians in preparation for swapping back to Transfiguration next month.
I'm unsure whether we want Charms, or Transfiguration first, but I think Charms has lower hanging fruit, and that makes me inclined to grab it first. I suppose we can swap in a Charm action instead of meridians if we get enough excess from the first one.
Continue swapping between Charms, Transfiguration, and meridians until the skills are raised to Intermediate skill level.
Afterward the obvious options would be either going for peak second realm spiritual cultivation, or the first*** milestone if we can get it in one month. I'm inclined toward the later as by that point we'd be rolling roughly d28 with 8 Charms if it mirrors Transfiguration in apprentice, and +100 from results with 8 Transfiguration techniques, which makes the +1 to pool from spiritual less crucial whereas potions work for Quidditch.
Once again this is just an outline, and I focused things around a primary topic in the hopes of insuring Rei earns at least one sect point a month.
*Places of power from Astronomy require meridians to use iirc so we'll need some for existing transfiguration techniques plus these. Technically this can be charms if we want them more, but we want an excess of meridians imo.
**This is important as getting it would reduce the threshold for spiritual cultivation to 10 if it mirrors potions, and once we get potions to Intermediate this will make the breakthrough threshold be (8+10)/2=9. This can in theory wait until we push beyond the first 2 spiritual milestones if the math doesn't work out, and allocate any spare actions to Charms.
***If it works like potions it should reduce the threshold for potions to ten.
We're gonna have to be careful with all these turns with split training once second year starts, though.
Knocking down the 6th action early makes sense from this point of view as well, so I'm warming up to the idea of a September turn that features it. It will probably have great odds on 3 actions, by that time, and we can fill the remaining 2 with whatever makes the most sense, which right now seems to be Charms and Meridians.
October is the latest I'm willing to wait to raise Astronomy and Herbology, so a turn divided evenly that gives us Apprentice in both sounds great to me.
After that, I think any split worse than 5-1 feels risky, but to be fair, it depends a lot on what kind of Hogwarts we'll come back to, as far as our peers are concerned. And charms' effects notwithstanding, Spiritual and Transfiguration remain far and away the most valuable things to train (from a purely odds-based perspective), so that's a reasonable idea for November, in my opinion.
But again, plans that look too far ahead are not that reliable, anyway, so talking about this, while fun, is also unlikely to lead to much.
Knocking down the 6th action early makes sense from this point of view as well, so I'm warming up to the idea of a September turn that features it. It will probably have great odds on 3 actions, by that time, and we can fill the remaining 2 with whatever makes the most sense, which right now seems to be Charms and Meridians.
October is the latest I'm willing to wait to raise Astronomy and Herbology, so a turn divided evenly that gives us Apprentice in both sounds great to me.
After that, I think any split worse than 5-1 feels risky, but to be fair, it depends a lot on what kind of Hogwarts we'll come back to, as far as our peers are concerned. And charms' effects notwithstanding, Spiritual and Transfiguration remain far and away the most valuable things to train (from a purely odds-based perspective), so that's a reasonable idea for November, in my opinion.
But again, plans that look too far ahead are not that reliable, anyway, so talking about this, while fun, is also unlikely to lead to much.