Hmmph... this junior is a good seed [Cultivation Management Quest]

occipitallobe · Oct 2, 2020

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TehChron · Sep 19, 2020

@occipitallobe the normal garrison for Night Devil Fortress is 2,000 Clansmen, right?

Raron · Sep 19, 2020

TehChron said:
The last time the Great Plains powers united to try and drive out the Devil Bees, they were fairly brutally repulsed. Assuming they'd be down to only one Nascent Soul if they actually bothered to commit one to this battlefield is extremely sus, considering that we were able to afford two Nascent Souls, as relatively broke as the Golden Devil Clan is.

Nah, if anything I'd bet that the ganked Nascent Soul was set to be the Devil Bee's third one. Assuming they had anything less than two and managed to penetrate the Great Plains enough to sack the Seven Divine Saber Palace is uh....super unlikely lol. Assuming that an Early Nascent Soul would've been able to lead such a sacking against an established power like the Seven Divine Saber Palace is even more specious an argument.

Nah, nah, whomevers Intrigue Game ganked the Devil Bee's Nascent Soul targeted a weak link and it was effective against them for the same reason why ganking Child Corpse Gulper hurt the Blood Cannibal Sect so badly. Really makes you admire whomever's playing them so badly tbh.

Why would I assume that a Early Nascent Soul from Devil Bees would lead a sacking? I've never made or seen anybody make that argument.
The time lapsed between sacking of Seven Divine Saber Palace and death of Little Saber and death of Devil Bee's Nascent Soul was 40 years. Those where very separate battles. And the entire Devil Bee Cult killed the Saber Palace Nascent Soul, while a hidden attack killed a Early Nascent Soul from Devil Bees. For all we know that could have been a united response from surrounding factions. We have 0 detailed information's on those fronts.

We just got told they had 2 Nascent Souls, lost one and may try to raise third (second one), though upkeeping it would be a problem. That problem is gone, but issues with raising one still exist. There is nothing to be suspicious about. They had 2 Nascent Souls at time of sacking.

Raising a Nascent Soul requires two things. Talent and money. We can assume they have enough money to raise one from all the mortals they harvested, but we have no idea if they got lucky enough with their Good Seed to be capable of raising a second(third) one. That is the main bottleneck for us, and we should have a more populous province.

It does not make sense for them to commit a Nascent Soul to this war. Same goes for us to a even greater extent.

[X] Yes - Send her what she wishes. It should allow her to prosecute the war reasonably successfully. You will bleed for the Hua, but you won't die for them.
[X] Don't - Let them fight it out. If a Nascent Soul chooses to intervene, do so as well - on your home ground, prepared and ready. You are too valuable to the Clan to risk at this point. Not to valuable to risk, of course, just not at this moment.

TehChron · Sep 19, 2020

Raron said:
Why would I assume that a Early Nascent Soul from Devil Bees would lead a sacking? I've never made or seen anybody make that argument.

The Devil Bees are a Blood Path-adjacent Sect, which means that whomever is their Grand Elder isn't going to leave their center of power to risk themselves getting killed save by absolute necessity due to the likelihood of treachery and death should they return while wounded.

Since typical Xianxia Tropes apply to them, that in turn means that their own Grand Elder is also going to be their strongest cultivator.

Given these two extraordinarily likely assumptions (You can call them unsubstantiated, but you'd need to posit an alternative if you want me to give it any credence whatsoever), and the third lack of probability that an Early Nascent Soul could have lead the sacking of the Seven Divine Saber Palace, then that means that an Early Nascent Soul did not do so. And yet, an Early Nascent Soul is what was killed by ambush last turn.

Which means that this Early Nascent Soul is neither the Devil Bee's Grand Elder, nor was the one responsible for sacking the Seven Divine Saber Palace.

Ergo, at the time of that Early Nascent Soul's death, they would have not only been their third Nascent Soul, but also a represented significant investment of the Devil Bee's existing wealth. Likely a not-inconsiderable chunk of what they got from sacking the Seven Divine Saber Palace in the first place.

Whether you actually made the argument or not is irrelevant, as the only way that a Blood Path Sect would be able to sack the Divine Saber Palace is if they had a subordinate powerful enough to dispatch and was arguably expendable enough to worth risking in the attempt. To argue that the Devil Bees are down to one Nascent Soul requires that you assume one of the following:

1) The Early Nascent Soul was the one who lead the Sacking
2) The Grand Elder of the Abyssal Devil Bee Sect left their Early Nascent Soul Junior (Who we assume to be both ambitious and treacherous as a part of the Blood Path cultivators and naturally everyone else would as well) to have free reign over the heart of the Sect while they went on adventure to sack a Righteous Power right in the heart of their territory, fully confident that they would not only succeed, but also do so without meaningfully weakening themselves in the attempt.

Unless there's some third possibility you've thought of?

Raron said:
We just got told they had 2 Nascent Souls,

No?

occipitallobe said:
Likely just the one, as one was killed. It could be two, though - the Devil Bees slaughtered a lot of people recently.

This is what we got told.

And I've outlined why it likely is two that they have right now, especially since the expense of raising up another Nascent Soul would explain the Devil Bees sudden need to try and sack our territories for resources quite nicely.

Raron said:
It does not make sense for them to commit a Nascent Soul to this war. Same goes for us to a even greater extent.

No it doesn't, but please don't mistake the reasons why that is as that leads to rather fatal miscalculations from misreading the field.

Minion#2 · Sep 19, 2020

TehChron said:
The Devil Bees are a Blood Path-adjacent Sect, which means that whomever is their Grand Elder isn't going to leave their center of power to risk themselves getting killed save by absolute necessity due to the likelihood of treachery and death should they return while wounded.

I don't think that this is an extraordinarily likely assumption, or at least they probably have a higher tolerance for risk then you are assuming they have. Remember at the end of the day the Grand Elders of the Demonic path sects real goal is achieving Spirit Severing, not just maintaining power in their sect or region. While their fates and that of their sects are fairly closely linked if it comes down choosing between the well being of the sect, or themselves? They will pick themselves every time. The history of these sects goes beyond any particular Grand Elder, but each of those Grand Elders, even to some degree in the Righteous Sects would prioritize their cultivation over the long term survival of their sects.

And so what I guess I am trying to say is that I think you are underestimating the risk tolerance of the Devil Bee Grand Elder.

Raron · Sep 19, 2020

TehChron said:
The Devil Bees are a Blood Path-adjacent Sect, which means that whomever is their Grand Elder isn't going to leave their center of power to risk themselves getting killed save by absolute necessity due to the likelihood of treachery and death should they return while wounded.

Since typical Xianxia Tropes apply to them, that in turn means that their own Grand Elder is also going to be their strongest cultivator.

Given these two extraordinarily likely assumptions (You can call them unsubstantiated, but you'd need to posit an alternative if you want me to give it any credence whatsoever)

I absolutely agree those are typical Xianxia Tropes.
You know what also are? A sect having a Grand Elder which is not the highest power, a Sect sending the highest cultivator at start of the battle to crush enemies and so on.

There are so many Xianxia tropes there are stars in the sky. You can't just pick and chose which ones you like without any evidence. If you want me to give credence to that theory, post some proof to what tropes are present. The Blood Cannibal Nascent Souls certainly didn't mind taking the field when there where two of them.

TehChron said:
and the third lack of probability that an Early Nascent Soul could have lead the sacking of the Seven Divine Saber Palace, then that means that an Early Nascent Soul did not do so. And yet, an Early Nascent Soul is what was killed by ambush last turn.

Which means that this Early Nascent Soul is neither the Devil Bee's Grand Elder, nor was the one responsible for sacking the Seven Divine Saber Palace.

Ergo, at the time of that Early Nascent Soul's death, they would have not only been their third Nascent Soul, but also a represented significant investment of the Devil Bee's existing wealth. Likely a not-inconsiderable chunk of what they got from sacking the Seven Divine Saber Palace in the first place.

I'm actually not sure what you are trying to argue here. I'm geniunly lost how you are equating the same Nascent Soul which attacked the Saber Palace is the one which was killed 40 years later, or that it is a completely different Early Nascent Soul. I'm not sure how you can corrolate any of that. We have literally 0 evidence on which Nascent Soul was killed, except that it was Early Stage.

Those are assumptions on assumptions in this case. There is no proof those tropes are present, and while likely, so is the case for other tropes. And there is no proof that the person leading assault on Saber Palace and Nascent Soul which died during the revenge mission are the same person, or ironically, not the same person.

TehChron said:
1) The Early Nascent Soul was the one who lead the Sacking
2) The Grand Elder of the Abyssal Devil Bee Sect left their Early Nascent Soul Junior (Who we assume to be both ambitious and treacherous as a part of the Blood Path cultivators and naturally everyone else would as well) to have free reign over the heart of the Sect while they went on adventure to sack a Righteous Power right in the heart of their territory, fully confident that they would not only succeed, but also do so without meaningfully weakening themselves in the attempt.

How about both Nascent Cultivators attacked?

The Saber palace had at least 2 Nascent Souls and one died. The Bees also had 2 Nascent Souls. To attack with a single Nascent soul would be suicide (well not really, but extremely unlikely), and it solves the problem of a betrayal waiting home. And there are Contract treasures like the one we are currently bound under, with their holdings also being heavily fortified.

TehChron said:
No?
This is what we got told.

And I've outlined why it likely is two that they have right now, especially since the expense of raising up another Nascent Soul would explain the Devil Bees sudden need to try and sack our territories for resources quite nicely.

So I'm going to pretend you are arguing for the upkeep of Nascent Soul, since if they already have a extra Nascent Soul they wouldn't need to rush to gather resources, but only need to balance their income and expenditure. In which case they would have utilized their Nascent Soul to break the fortress, and boost their troops in general. The lack of Nascent Soul presence is very telling. Remember, Nascent Souls are hard to kill.

Your entire argument is based on the fact that you have guessed the tropes which are present. Neither you or I know if that is the case. Mine is based on nuclear standoff. Which does only apply if both sides are down to a single Nascent Soul. If they had two Nascent Souls currently, I'd imagine they would at least deploy one in a support role.

TehChron · Sep 19, 2020

Raron said:
There are so many Xianxia tropes there are stars in the sky. You can't just pick and chose which ones you like without any evidence. If you want me to give credence to that theory, post some proof to what tropes are present.

occipitallobe said:
"Secondly, Seabreeze Tower. Corruption abounded here, and it is only through the most bizarre chain of events that it did not fall. The Foundation Establishment expert assigned to guard it was an outside expert, and betrayed us to the Devil Bees. Most bizarrely, the Devil Bee in charge of the raid thought it better to use the array and butcher and consume his own men than to take a crucial fortification, and then retreated. My own forces have taken command."

Oh look, treachery what are the odds

Raron said:
The Blood Cannibal Nascent Souls certainly didn't mind taking the field when there where two of them.

I think it's funny that you're unironically using the Blood Cannibal Sect as an example of how I'm wrong as if that entire adventure didn't just perfectly encapsulate what I'm talking about.

I did say that unless you posited a credible alternative I wouldn't give credence to your argument, so thanks for frontloading things for me.

Alratan · Sep 19, 2020

Shard said:
The Devil Bees are blood cultivators, hmm?

Been having an idea sprout in my head for awhile now.. Poison the corpses.

I had been flirting with the idea of a good seed that invented a way to convert their bloodline to arsenical bronze, which would make them a poison cultivator with poisonous blood. That could be something the rest of the sect could copy.

Raron · Sep 19, 2020

TehChron said:
I did say that unless you posited a credible alternative I wouldn't give credence to your argument, so thanks for frontloading things for me.

In a normal argument, this would be giving up, since the burden of proof is on you.

You need to prove something exists, not that something doesn't exist.

Edit:

And yes, I did just throw a "No u" at your "No u".

Mochinator · Sep 19, 2020

Alratan said:
I had been flirting with the idea of a good seed that invented a way to convert their bloodline to arsenical bronze, which would make them a poison cultivator with poisonous blood. That could be something the rest of the sect could copy.

I think that would be interesting to see! Right now all the listed Clan Techs are Formations, so have a Clan Tech in the from of Bloodline Spells seems cool!

TehChron · Sep 19, 2020

Raron said:
In a normal argument, this would be giving up, since the burden of proof is on you.

You need to prove something exists, not that something doesn't exist.

I literally just cited an example of Devil Bees being prone to internal strife caused by random bouts of treachery that can screw over their larger strategic aims

After you asked for proof that such risks were on the table, and thus entered the mental calculus for the Devil Bees themselves.

There's just no helping some people I guess, lol

Siual · Sep 19, 2020

Well, I think it's a reasonable assumption that if they had a Nascent Soul to spare, they would have sent it along for the alpha strike. If we want to tempt them to use their nuclear option to recoup their mounting losses (thus enabling us to strike against and potentially take him out on our home terrain with our clan supporting us), we might want to reinforce less and let the fight develop into a stalemate instead of just pushing them back too quickly. But that could blow up in our face pretty nastily too, if they suddenly book a lot of victories and we take a serious pounding while outnumbered.

occipitallobe said:
one did not need artistry to lead armies.

*sputters in protest*

TehChron · Sep 19, 2020

Siual said:
Well, I think it's a reasonable assumption that if they had a Nascent Soul to spare, they would have sent it along for the alpha strike.

While normally true if messing us up was the goal, keep in mind that it's likely that this is just them attempting to gain more wealth by seizing a few mines and some territory for more mortals to cull while they have the room and wealth to spare doing so.

So them spending the wealth necessary to fuel a Nascent Soul being committed to campaigning in the desert would be defeating the point of the hypothetical campaign in the first place.

Raron · Sep 19, 2020

TehChron said:
I literally just cited an example of Devil Bees being prone to internal strife caused by random bouts of treachery that can screw over their larger strategic aims

After you asked for proof that such risks were on the table, and thus entered the mental calculus for the Devil Bees themselves.

There's just no helping some people I guess, lol

It's a trope of it existing in the leader of the tower and forces. Not in the Nascent Souls. And I've already pointed out that their Grand Elder could just use a Contract treasure for that, or just go in a combined attack and so on. We have 0 information as already stated several times.

As stated, all of this is based on assumption^n , with n being number of correlated assumptions + how those assumptions combine.

That isn't actual proof. Just assumptions. And they become more and more unlikely as you chain them.

It's perfectly possible they have a second living Nascent Soul. We just have no evidence of that. I wouldn't be surprised if they do, but I would not dare to claim they have, like you are doing.

I'll agree there isn't helping some people.

TehChron · Sep 19, 2020

Raron said:
We have 0 information as already stated several times.

We have plenty of information?

I have no idea how you can look at the intrigue reports we keep getting each turn along with the information threadmarks and go "wow look at all that stuff that doesnt exist"

Raron · Sep 19, 2020

TehChron said:
We have plenty of information?

I have no idea how you can look at the intrigue reports we keep getting each turn along with the information threadmarks and go "wow look at all that stuff that doesnt exist"

We do have 0 information about inner workings of Devil Bees Nascent Souls.
If there is some, please point it out.

TehChron · Sep 19, 2020

Raron said:
We do have 0 information about inner workings of Devil Bees Nascent Souls.
If there is some, please point it out.

M'kay

occipitallobe said:
Archegetes. Little enough to know, though apparently one of the Early Nascent Souls in the Devil Bee Sect was secretly killed in a revenge mission by the Seven Divine Saber Palace. They will be looking to recoup their strength - I and Kleisthenes are in disagreement on this matter. I believe a strike against us would merely cost them a great deal, and would yield them little. The construction of our new defenses has seen more raids stymied, and there is no rational reason for them to devote resources to chew on a hard piece of bone such as us."

Three pieces of information:

1) The implication that there may be more than one Early Nascent Soul among the Devil Bees, meaning that the slain one was a different individual than what was already known to us
2) That the Nascent Souls leading the Sect would be looking to stock up on further wealth to recoup their losses from that death
3) That whomever is calling their shots is not a rational actor, as whoever signed off on this expedition did not consider that the defenses we put up would make an incursion more costly than was worthwhile to execute.

*picks at ear*

Anything else?

AlphaDelta · Sep 19, 2020

[X] Yes - Send her what she wishes. It should allow her to prosecute the war reasonably successfully. You will bleed for the Hua, but you won't die for them.
[X] Don't - Let them fight it out. If a Nascent Soul chooses to intervene, do so as well - on your home ground, prepared and ready. You are too valuable to the Clan to risk at this point. Not to valuable to risk, of course, just not at this moment.

Raron · Sep 19, 2020

TehChron said:
1) The implication that there may be more than one Early Nascent Soul among the Devil Bees, meaning that the slain one was a different individual than what was already known to us

That would indeed be true if there was not a QM post few hours earlier stating that Devil Bees had 2 known Nascent Souls. If there was a third one, I imagine we would have been told. So either the QM made a typo, or QM made a mistake.

occipitallobe said:
Likely just the one, as one was killed. It could be two, though - the Devil Bees slaughtered a lot of people recently.

Either one, or the other fact is known to us. Can't be both.
I consider more recent one to be correct.
Or there are two Early Nascent Souls. Which would be very unusual indeed.

Still, 0 evidence for a third one existing.

TehChron said:
2) That the Nascent Souls leading the Sect would be looking to stock up on further wealth to recoup their losses from that death

I think this is more or less default for every single faction. Just in different ways.

TehChron said:
3) That whomever is calling their shots is not a rational actor, as whoever signed off on this expedition did not consider that the defenses we put up would make an incursion more costly than was worthwhile to execute.

Except Blood Cultivators actually grow from raiding when they win due to all the mortals slaughtered. It's rational to invade us for wealth, when we are down to a single Nascent Soul. They just seem to be ill-informed or disillusioned. Which granted is not very rational. But they are out of options, with west of them being already raided, north a literal fortress and south being a danger zone. Is it still dumb? Yes. Does it mean that the person who signed this off is irrational? No.

For all we know, this could be personal forces of dead Nascent Soul send on a suicide run, to clean the house (and yes, this is a assumption). There are plenty of other such explanations.

That told us what they did, not their inner workings. There is a difference there. We could probably extrapolate if we had a lot more info over a longer period of time. We don't.

Anything else?

Katana1515 · Sep 19, 2020

I imagine if we got lucky enough to gank the Devil Bees sole remaining Nascent Soul (assuming they don't have 2) the Sect would simply burn its stockpiles of Disciples and Treasures until it got another one.

Remember Blood Cultivators progress abnormally quickly. I suspect they would be in for years of turmoil, loss of territory and perhaps lose as many as half their Core Cultivators to internal competiton though.

I don't think it would mean their certain doom is my point.

TehChron · Sep 19, 2020

Raron said:
That would indeed be true if there was not a QM post few hours earlier stating that Devil Bees had 2 known Nascent Souls. If there was a third one, I imagine we would have been told. So either the QM made a typo, or QM made a mistake.

The QM spoke in a vague noncommittal non-answer. If it was definitive they wouldnt have said "could be one, or MAYBE"

I dont know why you keep insisting that it's a concrete answer in your favor. Its demonstrably a jazz hand.

Theres limits to being a contrarian.

Katana1515 · Sep 19, 2020

[X] Yes - Send her what she wishes. It should allow her to prosecute the war reasonably successfully. You will bleed for the Hua, but you won't die for them.
[X] Don't - Let them fight it out. If a Nascent Soul chooses to intervene, do so as well - on your home ground, prepared and ready. You are too valuable to the Clan to risk at this point. Not to valuable to risk, of course, just not at this moment.

BungieONI · Sep 19, 2020

[X] Yes - Send her what she wishes. It should allow her to prosecute the war reasonably successfully. You will bleed for the Hua, but you won't die for them.
[X] Don't - Let them fight it out. If a Nascent Soul chooses to intervene, do so as well - on your home ground, prepared and ready. You are too valuable to the Clan to risk at this point. Not to valuable to risk, of course, just not at this moment.

Should be fine. Its basically what the intent behind the fortification vote was. Probably going to lose the Night Devil Fortress in some way but *shrug*. Grand scheme of things the forces we have devoted to the campaign there are not a large amount of our Qi Condensation or Foundation experts, nor am I expecting to lose ruinous numbers of them or any of the Core Formation elders after the Night Fortress falls.

Alectai · Sep 19, 2020

[X] Yes - Send her what she wishes. It should allow her to prosecute the war reasonably successfully. You will bleed for the Hua, but you won't die for them.
[X] Don't - Let them fight it out. If a Nascent Soul chooses to intervene, do so as well - on your home ground, prepared and ready. You are too valuable to the Clan to risk at this point. Not to valuable to risk, of course, just not at this moment.

Anders · Sep 19, 2020

[X] Yes - Send her what she wishes. It should allow her to prosecute the war reasonably successfully. You will bleed for the Hua, but you won't die for them.
[X] Don't - Let them fight it out. If a Nascent Soul chooses to intervene, do so as well - on your home ground, prepared and ready. You are too valuable to the Clan to risk at this point. Not to valuable to risk, of course, just not at this moment.

cheesyme · Sep 19, 2020

[X] Yes - Send her what she wishes. It should allow her to prosecute the war reasonably successfully. You will bleed for the Hua, but you won't die for them.
[X] Don't - Let them fight it out. If a Nascent Soul chooses to intervene, do so as well - on your home ground, prepared and ready. You are too valuable to the Clan to risk at this point. Not to valuable to risk, of course, just not at this moment.

Hmmph... this junior is a good seed [Cultivation Management Quest]

Protect the weak against the evil strong.

Seven gremlins in a trench coat

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