Grandfather Clock and the Town of Mimics (Mafia)

It's a wine question there, as what would scum!IH do to back off the push and redirect is an interesting question. But at the same time, what would town!IH do in this case? We're at a point in the game where everyone imo is effectively null to everyone at day start. From there you have to review the entire game and look for the slightest discrepancies to build a case in either side. I really boils down to how they would approach the situation and handle it before, during, and after. The right answer either way is the answer that doesn't get you killed and achieves your objective.

But I'd say enough of the theory talk because if we take it further it just becomes white noise.
The problem is that if IH is town, even if they think switching off of me will make them look suspicious, they still lose if they get me voted out. The only viable outcome at this point for town is that we catch scum. Any other result is game over.

But yeah, this is probably as far as such speculation can go without some counterargument.
 
Meso D5: Not much happening tbh, a push against IH atm now that's not inconsistent with past reads, and ultimately came out of the D3 EoD push from IH against Meso, which verges on OMGUS, but I am scumreading IH over that in part as well.

D4: Low activity all around. Meso publicly townreading me and Cyri, which makes questions about Pyrros and pressure on IH on D5 make sense.

D3: Meso enters the day trying to defend himself off leading the -Rosen wagon at EoD2, and also pushing a policy vote on QT that I firmly think was a terrible move, but one consistent with Meso's past attitudes around inactivity. Meso's also weirdly ambivalent around Yun, but I don't think that was intrinsically a bad thing anymore, given Yun's flip. I just don't see the scum read. Interestingly, my memory said that D3 was going to the big push for scumreading Meso, but I think D2 and Meso's pushes on -Rosen that paired Meso with Yun initially are actually closer to the core of these reads.

D2: Meso hammers -Rosen for the vote on Happerry mostly, which feels a bit odd. It might be power wolfing together with IH playing a more passive role to get town to kill -Rosen, and overall reads a bit odd. Moreover, there's a lot of people on that Happerry wagon, and I think most are more suspicious than -Rosen. It's... not great overall.

D1 is a bit of a mess, but I had a towny impression of Meso as of this post. OTOH, Meso stays very clear of the scuffle between other players at EoD, and there's no real chance to see Meso under EoD pressure. I tend to accept IRl excuses for not being around (and I've had enough of my own), but this does make it hard to really use D1 well to get a feel on Meso.

And, ultimately that's it. I see the scumread on Meso, but Meso's actions feel consistent and look like Meso's hunting. He has reads from D3 on that have been held fairly consistently. OTOH, and this may just be a trouble I have reading Meso in general, Meso's the most active living poster in the thread, but it's very hard to get a firm feel either way. Meso feels more aggressive than they've felt as town or scum in the past, but it's very Mesoish overall. The meso reads aren't invalid persay, I think the push on -Rosen is quite suspicious, and the bouncing around Yun is weird, but I can't find a *story* that makes sense for scum-Meso on the Yun parts, and I'm not liking just -Rosen at all.


Having read through, my rough ordering of suspicions is:

1. IH
2. Cyri
3. Meso
4. Pyrros

If we pass the vote today, I'd wager I'm the next NK target, so before I die, hoping we get it right, if IH flips scum today, I think Meso's where we start tomorrow. If we vote Cyri today, I think we start with Pyrros and IH tomorrow (unless we end up dead).

OTOH, my reads for IH are not based on team-ups, I just think that's where the last two townies should look if we pull this out today.
 
forums.sufficientvelocity.com

Grandfather Clock and the Town of Mimics (Mafia) Mafia

Okay, so IH. IH subbed in for Ori D2, with Ori's final post being right at EoD1. Early on, Ori looked not great here swinging a memeish vote into a real one over policy isn't my cup of tea tbh. Similarly, D1 is, on the whole, low content but not scummy. There's a pivot to Happerry late day...

@InterstellarHobo response to the read here?


I've liked Cyri's pushes D5, which is the only thing having me on you over Cyri atm.
 
@PyrrosWarrior I've done a dive on everyone but you. Thoughts on the posts? Anything I've missed that stands out, do my explanation seem sound?
@Cyricubed I think I've hit some sus things. Do you disagree that you were the only one who really benefits from the Zae kill? How do you rebut my pushes against you?
@mesonoxian: I somehow ended up NAI on you when I expect that post to be a push to kill you. Why? I'm scumreading both IH and Cyri, albeit not necessarily as a team. Looking at my posts on both, what do you think stands out? What mistakes have I made?
 
There's a lot of hedging on your other reads, a lot of "this isn't scummy, so it might be scummy" kind of logic, while your Cyri read is very direct in how it's structured.
The only one I used anything similar to "this isn't scummy, so it might be scummy" logic was when I said my thoughts on you. Everyone else was "under one set of circumstances, they are likely Town; whereas these other circumstances this is null/scum"

Most of "those set of circumstances" was explicitly unfamiliarity with how each player plays.
@mesonoxian and @PyrrosWarrior You both haven't really taken a stance yet towards much and day time is whittling. What are your thoughts?
@mesonoxian and @PyrrosWarrior You both haven't really taken a stance yet towards much and day time is whittling. What are your thoughts?
@mesonoxian @Shadell @PyrrosWarrior @InterstellarHobo

Day ends in 9 hours 20 minutes. People need to make arguments and vote otherwise we've lost due to town apathy
Less town apathy and more that I have absolutely NO CLUE what I can or cannot say. At first I wasn't saying anything because I missed an alert in the thread so I thought it was still inactive, but then I put off saying anything because I was trying to decide what to say without losing the game for Town by saying something you guys found suspicious again and becoming an easy lynch, and not losing the game for Town by dividing over a lynch if it weren't found suspicious.

That said, I don't really have the time for indecisiveness so I'm just gonna be honest again regardless of consequences. Literally the only person I am beginning to feel certain about lynching is Shadell, and even that I am indecisive over because of how circumstancial my thought for it is. I have no clue who would even make a good "scum partner" in the slim chance I am even right! I am really directionless right now.
 
That said, I don't really have the time for indecisiveness so I'm just gonna be honest again regardless of consequences. Literally the only person I am beginning to feel certain about lynching is Shadell, and even that I am indecisive over because of how circumstancial my thought for it is. I have no clue who would even make a good "scum partner" in the slim chance I am even right! I am really directionless right now.

Explain this one again? Go through in more detail maybe and do the kind of reread/accounting of all my posts as I've done with everyone but you to see if you leave it feeling the same/stronger/weaker? Personally I tend to find it really helpful to kind of set the conclusions aside and let me see where a argument takes me as I build out the post.

Also, any thoughts on the reads I posted?
 
I have not been trying to push Meso today past my first posts.

The first post was a follow up on Shadell's request, though it was more or less of my own initiative.
I explain my scumread and why it persists, which is more or less a push.

I talk with Meso for like three more posts;
I probe him for why he was (to my PoV) acting so cagey about giving me answers. This post was potentially leading up to a push, dependant on how he answered.

He claimed not understanding why I didn't find his answers satisfactory. He also pushes back, citing confusion about how I'm scumreading him, and makes an incorrect claim that I had stated suspicions of him before pushing on th.

Second post is a response to this. I explain the first, and don't push further on that topic because his confusion seems like it could well be genuine. I explain the second, and don't push further on that topic. I refute the third, and don't push further on that topic.

Meso claims not understanding how I can scumread him without a motive.

I respond by quoting earlier posts that answer this, and summarizing them.


Since then I have explained the push repeatedly, because like 15 different people out of the 5 remaining have mischaracterized it in a way that basically demands I defend myself.
I do not want to let the notion that I thought "HMM YUN SCUM -> MESO SCUM, LET'S VOTE MESO" stand.
 
Okay, that's fair. It's easy to come off as pushing something when you're playing responsively to others or just trying to correct the record.

That said, what actual reads do you have if you're not pushing Meso atm? We're down to the wire here.
 
Right now I am most suspicious of Cyricubed, primarily off his push on me.
I can put together my reasoning so far if you want, but I really need to read back to be comfortable.
 
I should clarify a bit:
Cyric's push on me for a pattern of TMI looks to me like he jumped on Pawn's claim from yesterDay, called it a pattern, and tried to backfill it badly.
 
Explain this one again? Go through in more detail maybe and do the kind of reread/accounting of all my posts as I've done with everyone but you to see if you leave it feeling the same/stronger/weaker? Personally I tend to find it really helpful to kind of set the conclusions aside and let me see where a argument takes me as I build out the post.
Simply put, the root of my suspicion is the fact that you aren't dead from last Night. Your position this whole game has been as an uncontested Town Leader, don't really have any significant wagons behind you (with the only people voicing finding them even slightly off being Pawn and I, and now one other person), and overall it would help divide the field more to push Pawn or myself as a lynch in the following Day from my perspective. The fact that Pawn, the only person naming me Town and the only other person who also found Shadell's position weird, died instead makes me a bit more suspicious of you.

There are rather big problems with this train of thought, however. The lynchpin is that it assumes that scum also view me as an easy lynch as I do, yet no other people in the game have made signs of moving towards me as a priority lynch. I suppose another lynchpin could be "Pawn is the only person with significant skill at Mafia left who could push a lynch on Shadell" if you actually are scum, which could still make it work I suppose. It's still too circumstancial for my liking.

A common error I see veteran Town make is having a specific view of how the game is being perceived, and then shaping to make erroneous calls on who is Town or Scum based on who appears to play or not play in to that view. One should always keep aware that other players, especially scum, can always be perceiving the game layout in a wholly different manner than you, and thus make different calls than expected.

For example, were my idea that you are an uncontested Town Leader to be correct, more people would be following along with your reads now as we go into the final days. On the other hand, that lack of following could also be because the town-scum ratio is diluted enough that scum can afford to go against a Town!Shadell to muddy the waters without appearing suspicious.

Another problem with that theory is that it is inherently fed a bit from the fact that I was already feeling you came off as weird, even if I didn't (and still don't) view your behavior as anti-Town. Some level of subjectivity is good for these kinds of games, because you need to have some kind of opinion if you don't want to end up floundering as I usually do without Investigation roles helping or a trusted Town Leader to take cues from. Too much level of subjectivity can actively harm your attempts to make objective reads of the situation, however, which is why I fear about the possibility that my prior thoughts of you coming off weird could be negatively affecting my current ideas on you.

As I said, circumstancial. It's overall not a hill I'd like to die on in literally any other circumstances than the sudden death we are in right now.

Now I'll go back to those reads you said you had. I'd haven't read them in depth yet because I felt it pertinent to say something when we at least still have a few hours left to talk over things.
 
Simply put, the root of my suspicion is the fact that you aren't dead from last Night. Your position this whole game has been as an uncontested Town Leader, don't really have any significant wagons behind you (with the only people voicing finding them even slightly off being Pawn and I, and now one other person), and overall it would help divide the field more to push Pawn or myself as a lynch in the following Day from my perspective. The fact that Pawn, the only person naming me Town and the only other person who also found Shadell's position weird, died instead makes me a bit more suspicious of you.

I don't think this is *invalid,* it's largely the same as the logic I'm using for scumreading Cyri, but remember I was mind-gaming scum pretty hard on killing -Rosen for this logic D1-D2, largely with the goal of convincing scum to leave town alive and try this card later in the game, and I do think this probably contributed to the Zaea NK. Speaking of which, why me over Cyri on this logic?

Additionally, Pawn's a super vet, and probably a high priority kill out of the gates no matter what. Pawn was always going to be a good target for the NK if town, and definitely had a very strong town presence out of the gate.
 
@PyrrosWarrior atm, the early consensus seems to be IH. I know you haven't voiced strong suspicions, but we need people to be thinking through here. if it helps, can you reorient into how you feel about this vote?

@InterstellarHobo This feels like a fair defense of D5 but could you respond to the points I made about your posting early in the thread?


FWIW, I am only marginally more confident than I was D3 (and I was pretty confident on Yun and that was really wrong.
 
I have reread all of the thread, save for:
D1
Cyric-Yun argument (which I perused but I ain't got the kind of time to decrypt that)
#943 and beyond (some of this gets a better post, I hope)

I'm going to post my thoughts on old stuff, and a big passel of occasionally commented quotes in a spoiler, and barely organize it at all because I really should have been working instead of playing mafia.
Sorry.

Scia/Pyrros has not done much. As in, I do not think there is a single push, scum or town, originating from this slot. This is not good.
Scia I find difficult to read, in a literal and figurative sense. I don't think they made any serious pushes, it seems like most of their posts are kind of nothing.
Pyrros has a post which gives weak reads, then defends that post. They then miss EoD without having voted.
Recent posts are not much better.

Meso - rereading the D2 -Rosen push: I probed on whether he thought -Rosen's push was remotely plausible, and he did not.
I am not sure what to make of this- it lines up with the rest of Meso's pushing, but not being able to see how someone might see Happerrry's post as hedging strikes me as unusual.

Cyric- I don't like the top of this spoiler box at all. I don't like their first post of D5 at all.

Shadell- I'm not sure I like their NK analysis? Otherwise, rereading has reinforced my town read, not considering them for today.

Alright so I was looking to see if you were going to try and curb that theory to one side or another. But instead you tackled it openly and considered it a possibilty with decent logic. If your scum then you damn well deserve the W for bambozling me that hard.
This strikes me as a bizzarely strong townread for very little at all.

Okay, and I'm caught up.



Cyricubed: They come off as light town with strong opinions. They've consistently stuck their neck out over things while also flowing rather naturally with the conversation of the hour. They aren't pushing specific narratives, but neither are they refusing to engage or give anything to whatever is going on at the moment. That feels like a Town Cyri.

Mesonoxian: Slight scum, but nothing damning enough to bet on it. They've made very pointed and public redirects that could come as shading Rosen heavily early on. They are definitely worth following up on, but I just am not getting strong enough thoughts reading through their posts to say that they are definitely without-a-doubt scum, as opposed to just having scummy posts (which, to an extent, most town trying to win will have).

Yun: NAI. I feel like the things you guys are pointing out as "hard scum" come off more as "light scum" at worst. Certainly nothing particularly damning for Yun. That said, a very consistent lack of actual direction is in their posts. Beyond defending themselves, they refuse to do anything more than just offer endless questions, a bit like Hobo. They are definitely worth trying to pressure into offering more solid stances and solid arguments against not just their past decisions, but also their current ones. They are either scum's easy lynch, or hapless scum whose only tactic is to redirect.

Shalmoa: They come off more as bumbling town than scum if I were forced to choose as Pawn asked. No strong opinions on them though. Part of it can probably be attributed to the fact that I don't really know who they are or how they play.

OriginalName/InterstellarHobo: OriginalName's posts feel like hapless flailing back and forth and all around before becoming wishy-washy on whether or not to lynch Happerry. Are they new? If they are new, that's a "maybe confused town." If they aren't, that's, uh, have vet scum ever done refuge in audacity as a serious/wine tactic? For Hobo's part, they have been a bit better, though they still stay mostly on the outside of the arguments. Their modus operandi for the game has been throwing pointed questioning at specific individualsl (mostly against Rosen and now Yun) without much follow-up or actually leading that information into an argument. It could be an attempt to look Towny from a less active scum, or it could just be them doing what they can as Town without a lot of time available.

In general I feel like they should answer more anyhow, as they are one of the smaller posters of the thread. @InterstellarHobo

QuantumTesseract/Pawn Lelouch: Completely null. I didn't have a profile on QT going through this due to their general inactivity. I want to believe that they come off a bit as inactive town, but at the same time I don't really think that is in any way something I would be willing to bet on given that it, you know, would just purely be a subjective, gut read. Pawn, meanwhile, hasn't been around long enough for me to see anything of him that screams" this is totally Town Pawn."

Shadell: This one is a bit weird. I wouldn't say Shadell is scummy, but do you guys know how in most games Nictis and Terra or some other pair of "big name" players usually break out in to an argument that turns out to be Town v Town? Shadell's arguments up until this point feel kinda like that 3rd person in those arguments that usually shapes the narrative between the two without committing enough to have their name associated with it. I don't think that feeling is scummy in this context so much as NAI, but the complete ability of them to seriously have been considered basically the only person who hasn't really been pushed as being "possibly" scum in any manner out of all the active players kinda rankles my paranoia a bit. I don't know enough about them to know if that's their playstyle, or if they are possibly a good enough Mafia player to avoid the pitfalls that usually have most big name Town players with at least one black mark against them at this point.

Another thing that rankled my paranoia a bit going through there is that there weren't really any "arguments" over who to commit to lynching throughout each day. At least once by now you would think an argument would break out between two or more options, but nothing serious was really debated. Too peaceful a vote is generally indicative of scum leading town astray.

Just about the only good thing I can say is that it doesn't look like scum has really tried a divide-and-conquer strategy this game. For better or worse, that silence means that Town has stayed mostly united instead of being overly prone to in-fighting and factionalism to the better extent you could expect of a mafia game. That also means, however, that it is almost guaranteed that the at least one, but likely both, of the scum is among Town's leading players having subordinated the vote enough to feel safe. The important thing going forward would be to take care balancing Town's need for unity to leverage our numerical advantage, with the need to purge the scum hiding among us.

Whew. That was a long post to make. Almost 1000 words! I hope it's actually helpful. I kinda had a hard time forming some opinions on some people.


Here now. I'm still building the info blocks Pawn asked for. Is there anything else you would like to ask me?

It feels non-committal because ALL my reads every single game are flexible. It's why I have a record every single game of refusing to give hard reads, which I've already told you guys before. I don't have hard reads and I never do. The only reason I even gave some here is because due to subbing in, I haven't had a chance to build up my usual rapport as I have in every other game and thus need to say something or just come off even more suspicious than not at a critical point in the game.

Like seriously, I hate answering the "reads" question because I never have anything solid and all it does is provide scum an easy push to say I'm "scummy."I am always coming off non-committal because I'm never honestly sure of myself and you guys just never seem to pick up on this across multiple games despite my directly saying it multiple times when questioned on it before. Part of putting yourself "into someone's POV" as you said you are includes actually personalizing how they act based upon their general playstyle. Newer players can be dangerous because you don't know how they act or react in different situations, not just because you need to go easier on them "just because." You don't have that same limit with me because I have an established playstyle for Townie and Scummy roles for you to put yourself into each "POV." Of course a smart player would try to mix it up a bit to not get too predictable, but it still provides more a starting point than treating my POV as "generic Mafia player that plays vaguely like Nictis or Evenstar"

The bit regarding "town direction" and "no in-fighting" is my meta-analysis and advice. It's consistently the only thing I've ever been good at when playing Town and I want to contribute somehow since I suck at everything else. I can't do that to the same extent I normally do since lore and fluff is pretty much pointless, so there's really no guessing what kinds of roles scum has or the form scum would take. We already know Scum can do basic kills and Town is all vanilla because that's the setup of the game. No need for analysis there.
This is basically

The parts in [] colored yellow are areas where I edited in comments for clarity. I also edited in the day the quotes were taken from up in the "name" portion of the quote. This should hopefully reduce the amount of spoilers needed to organize these, as well as prevent that one glitch from last time where too many quotes and spoilers made the post not load properly for some people.


If anything sticks out to you guys, I can also retrieve the quotes that these quotes were responding to. Just not doing it since I believe that was one of the things causing the glitch last time.

Okay, so this is Scia's first serious post taking a stance on anything D1. She finds the large number of meme votes (spurred partially by Nictis telling people to sheep him) against Nictis somewhat suspicious. This took place barely in to Day 1.


This is their explanation to voting Mesonoxian upon being accused of voting him for being scum in last game. I believe what they were trying to say was that they hoped by making the vote slightly more competitive, that it would evoke more serious discussion. I could be misreading that though. I think I can understand the premise, but it sounds a bit unclear to me.
A follow-up to their explanation later in Town, with them nulling their vote on Mesonoxian as the meme vote wagon is off.

Upon being asked who they would vote out if they had to vote at that very minute, they give a maybe towards Yun and state that Rosen and Cyricubed seem slightly Towny to them.
Breakdown of vote changes of EoD1


Gives out suspicions over Rosen as D2 ends.
States that they believe one scum was hiding on the Rosen wagon, and one was voting for Yun D2.
This is the only real post I've made towards any kind of feelings about any posters.

Original's second vote on Day 1, after trying (albeit in a messed-up format) to vote Mesonoxian. Normally I would write this off as just meme votes in early game, but they said it is serious so I put it in.


They state they feel that Zaelix's oddness over Rosen implicates Zaelix as possibly being scum.

Gives light town reads on Nictis and Rosen.
Switches vote to Happerry


Starts off their first moves with a barrage against Rosen.
Nulls it claiming memery.

Continues the Rosen-related questioning.
Pushes Shadell as Town
Gives a read over Scia's post and Yun's post respectively
Goes back to the Rosen push that he has been going at the whole Day 2.

Gives light reasoning for Nictis and Zaelix's deaths.
Pushes back against Yun stating that QT's inactivity could be a scum tactic to fly under the radar.
Scumreads Yun, QT, and Mesonoxian. Claims likely team is Meso/Yun or QT/other.

This was about Hobo feeling Mesonoxian dropped their scum read of Yun suddenly.
Day 3 reads
States that my characterization of them as generally pushing without consolidating to be a mischaracterization.
A follow-up on the previous pushing to get Mesonoxian to be clearer about their Yun stance.

Votes Mesonoxian and states their belief in a Yun/Meso scum team after finding Meso's answers unsatisfactory or otherwise interpreting them as non-answers.
Defends their argument that splitting between a Yun and Shalmoa wagon is fine because scum tying the vote would look extremely obvious
Continued push on Meso for not being firm enough on their Yun stance.
Restates belief in tie thing, and also states a higher scum read on Meso than Yun. This is their last major post for Day 3, and up until now as they haven't posted Day 4 yet.

At the end of D1, QT lets known their slight suspicion against Rosen but feels Zaelix is not their teammate if Rosen is scum. They ultimately vote Yun to avoid creating a 4-way tie.

This is about Cyricubed finding Shadell to have noticeably changed their play-pattern between Day 1 and 2, with QT saying they disagree with that premise but find the conclusion of Shadell being suspicious to be agreeable.
Responds that being inactive scum is something QT has done in the past, but disclaims about it being something they are doing here.
After being pushed by Yun to make a firm stance, they continue their previous suspicions of Rosen.
Day 3, and last reads before subbing to Pawn.
Gives that they believe that Shalmoa is scum despite coming to the conclusion in a way different from Yun, with a potential teammate of Cyricubed, Mesonoxian, or Hobo.

Disregards that Yun is necessarily scum because they seem to view Shalmoa as a higher read, and doesn't read Yun, Shadell, or Pyrros (me), as on a team with Shalmoa. This is before I made my "reads" post that got almost everyone but Yun to start light-scum reading me.


Argument for scum Shalmoa following up the post to Yun about scum Shalmoa.
NAI advice for Shalmoa followed by an explanation for why they don't foresee a team read of Shadell, Yun, or Pyrros with a scum Shalmoa.
Their reads (which are now after my "reads" post). The most notable thing is nulling Shalmoa after looking deeper into everyone's post, for reason of being lower priority in outcomes compared to a Mesonoxian read.
Primarily just a restate that they believe Shadell has been acting overwhelmingly Towny to the point of feeling odd. He still reads her as Town though since a scum wouldn't have to commit to that extent.
States Cyricubed's pokings are NAI from a game theory perspective, and then restates his scum read on Meso, Yun, and Pyrros.
Disputes Hobo's tie tactic.
Responds to Shadell asking about intact reads, and offers a hypothesis for Shalmoa's death N3. Says IH is a bit townier in his eyes due to handling of EoD3.
Disagrees with the assertion that Yun flipping Town clears the suspicion off of Mesonoxian. For context, Shadell asserted that most of the scumminess coming from Mesonoxian was that it seemed like he was covering for Scum Yun.

Gives disagreement on Shadell's read that Hobo's EoD3 was bad, but agrees that I am scummy for lack of activity and having odd reads.
Pushes about Pyrros's (me) potential scumminess by posing two questions on two posts from me and Scia.
Mostly just a breakdown of his various reads, past and present, and how they related to the two scum hiding among us.

Sorry for the delay. I always leave editing and proofreading as the last task since it's more tedious to do it by individual post or module. I hope this is helpful. Do please tell me if you find any glitches, or if I missed anything.
Sorta a can't have one without the other, but it boils down to the suspicions being forced. And it still does to an extent. It's hyper focusing on one detail and ignoring the rest/ the player's standard metric. I have to regrab my quotes but my current thought process is IH is Scum. As for their teammate I'm certain it's between you or shadell, but I'd rather take that 50/50 with my thoughts at EoD.

Now going down to the night kill I feel it was between Me and Pawn. While I'm sad Pawn got killed over me I suppose I'll be the savior. :p Okay meme joke over I think Pawn was killed for two reasons: 1- To attempt to make conversation be monofocused on the veterans today, and 2- To make people more certain of their reads, or specifically their town reads. Now I did Iso's on both Slots and the players in the slots. The constant read I was getting strangly TMI posts from IH along with constant move against the lynch flow feeling. I can put up points later when I re-find the quotes but yet. Sunday so I can't be super active but I am here ish.

Again. We are in LyLo. a Single town not voting at scum is grounds for scum to win as ties are No Lynch's.
Building this out, the Zaea kill happened N2, after Nictis, -Rosen and Happerry were dead, so the players besides Zae were:

  1. @Cyricubed
  2. @mesonoxian
  3. @Yun Bob the Trouser Mimic, [Exiled to the Dungeon] d3.
  4. @Shalmoa Cynthia the Mimic Mimic, [Murdered in the Night] n3.
  5. @OriginalName replaced by @InterstellarHobo d2.
  6. @QTesseract
  7. @Shadell
  8. @Scia

Meso's been scumread all game, making them an unlikely NK target (and thus have little need to randomize a kill to hit whoever), Yun, Shalmoa and Ori are all confirmed town (and thus not responsible). QT was inactive, so also not a high NK priority likely. IH had just subbed in, and would probably be extended some leniency.

So, that really leaves me, Scia and Cyri as players I'd expect to have been hit before Zaea. Of these, my read of the situation is that Cyri and I have more experience, were more actively townread at that time and would also have been seen as a bigger threat.

As I know I'm town, I think the Zaea kill actually is fairly incriminating for Cyricubed, as Cyri's the only remaining unknown who stood to gain if scum at this point.

So, what else has Cyri done that's scummy?

D4 was the shortest/easiest day to examine. This is a solid post, but most of Cyri's other D4 posts are throwing near random questions at people and doing nothing with the feedback. It's possible Cyri was lost as I was, but I also don't like that these are very theoryless posts. OTOH, the thread was dead. Overall, I think I could see scum-Cyri doing

D3 again had a lot of fairly low effort questioning of others that doesn't really feel like it builds to much. Cyri jumps on the Yun wagon early (though everyone kinda did) and I get the impression of either scum trying to look proactive or town casting around for a theory. Very consistent with D4, but not clearing. Pawn's entry into the thread brought a lot more structure to the Day and really helped clean things up, and I think this post from Pyrros is interesting, but more on that

D2 is probably the towniest Day. Cyri spends a lot of time responding to Yun, who gets progressively more defensive and tunnels on Cyri in response. Cyri's also got early consistent scumreads on both Meso and Yun that endure. OTOH, Cyri admits to backing off a scumread to vote on Happerry in a way that I don't really like in retrospect, and also a lot of this seems more like a scummy-looking Yun accidentally hand

D1 is interesting. As of 148 I was suspecting Cyri. here Cyri kinda talked up a big idea earlyish in the Day, but then dropped it for no reasons. That, again matches the idea of a scum player trying to look towny by doing towny plans and not relaly working out the internal core of genuine town logic, in contrast to genuine town doing towny things by virtue of following an internal town process. 328 has some posts that I think aren't great either and reads like some massive hedging combined with a vote against Cyri's own reads. EoD is something a lot of people cleared Cyri for, with an early swap onto the Happerry wagon that Cyri... didn't really justify. It felt cleaner than the late joiners, but it's not as good as I thought at the time.

Overall then, Cyri feels... okay, which is something that feels off at this point. They've had a few persistent scumreads (Meso, Yun) but spent a huge proportion of their time doing stuff that feels more like activity to look active rather than activity to be active, and I haven't felt strong pushes from them to really act on those reads, rather than throwing them out and being willing to hop off when others have joined the read. Add in that Cyri's the only real player I think had motive to NK Zaea and I think there's a fair case for Cyriscum to be made here.

If so, Pyrros stands out as a possible teammate due mostly to the quoted post where a lot of very vague, waffly reads are paired with a very concrete statement on Cyri that sets off alarm bells.

OTOH, I could see Meso as a partner as well, with the read on Meso being a dedicated strategy of distancing.

Not voting yet, because I want responses to this, and I want to build similar profiles on IH and Meso.
 
This is wrong. The core basis of this is, and has been since the questioning first began, 'Meso's scumread seems to have disappeared with no explanation'.

But what reasoning does !scum meso have to drop this when Yun is town? In addition I wanted to see if this was the only argument or if there is more. Keep in mind that while you claim it independant, you also have stated less certainty in this read due to Yun's flip, but are still...acting certain about it. If you get what I mean.

Cyric's push on me for a pattern of TMI looks to me like he jumped on Pawn's claim from yesterDay, called it a pattern, and tried to backfill it badly.

This is incorrect, mostly. Pawn had a TMI question regarding Scia/Pyrros to which I realized I hadn't been looking for TMI posts as usually that indicates something flavor/mechanic wise and I initially disregarded the idea of TMI posts before hand. Then I realized the reason pawn asked for TMI and it was based on town/scum knowledge scum would have. I came to the conlusion of potential TMI from your posts on your own thanks to inspiration from pawn, but it is not a piggyback onto pawn's claim, as pawn town read you last day phase according to last post.

@Cyricubed why/where did you first seriously suspect Yun?

Right around when he gave the argument for me being scum and I read it as them manipulating data and twisting my words. Beforehand I was pushing him off minor suspicions based off the day 1 End and was starting to let those suspicions go in favor of directly pursuing -rosen based off their play shift from my pov.

I will get to Shadell's posts soon
 
About your reads/analysis part, I feel they are a fair thing. I don't see any obvious holes in it.

Speaking of which, why me over Cyri on this logic?

Additionally, Pawn's a super vet, and probably a high priority kill out of the gates no matter what. Pawn was always going to be a good target for the NK if town, and definitely had a very strong town presence out of the gate.
I mean, I said that their general play up to D3 had felt like a town Cyri play, but I didn't say they felt like an uncontested town leader. You are kinda the only one the logic can apply to. Furthermore, that kind of logic also doesn't really apply to early game (unless you are talking about mindgaming scum in general), seeing as it requires an explicit long history and established consistent town read to apply to someone.

About the Pawn comments, that goes a bit in to one of the problems I pointed out about my own assumption
A common error I see veteran Town make is having a specific view of how the game is being perceived, and then shaping to make erroneous calls on who is Town or Scum based on who appears to play or not play in to that view. One should always keep aware that other players, especially scum, can always be perceiving the game layout in a wholly different manner than you, and thus make different calls than expected.
The two times I've been scum, my priority has always been on using kills to shape the Town narrative and create in-fighting factions, not using skills to take out the most competent or the most "on track" town (except on D1). Vet Town have a fair history of being quite stubborn, as well as skilled enough to push an argument above all other arguments (even if thir arguments are unwittingly playing towards the scum agenda). I personally wouldn't have killed Pawn, which in turn affects my analysis of the situation. I recognize that scum could interpret the Town situation differently from me, or otherwise might use different logic and strategies to decide their kills. In turn, that makes my view unreliable to myself.
 
Scia/Pyrros has not done much. As in, I do not think there is a single push, scum or town, originating from this slot. This is not good.
Scia I find difficult to read, in a literal and figurative sense. I don't think they made any serious pushes, it seems like most of their posts are kind of nothing.
Pyrros has a post which gives weak reads, then defends that post. They then miss EoD without having voted.
Recent posts are not much better.

At least someone else has the same issue I have with the slot now, lol.
 
Explain the logic on me or Meso partnered with IH?

Meso I can see it as a hard attempt at scumbuddy bussing. I no longer think this is the case and I doubt it's Meso/IH anymore.

for you it's because while I believe I haven't seen...too much a difference in your playstyle, I can't ever recall you as scum, and as such I don't have any metric of comparison. Your pushes aren't bad, not always right, but they aren't scummy imo. So it leaves you at neutral, but in addition I see you as IH's consistant town read and that makes me think that your his scumbuddy. Now like I said, if even 1 townie is voting wrong it is potential GG so atm I take your vote on IH with a grain of salt, as both of you feasibly could swap onto someone and tie the vote, thus losing town the game.

Do you disagree that you were the only one who really benefits from the Zae kill? How do you rebut my pushes against you?

No, in fact I'd say I'm disadvantaged for it. I strongly disbelieve in killing someone whose scumread is correct as that can lead to this kind of logic popping up and biting someone in the ass.

Most of your pushes are good but you've got some things wrong.

It's possible Cyri was lost as I was, but I also don't like that these are very theoryless posts

I always have reasoning for these questions, generally it is to see if someone is fabricating their thought processes. Other times it's to get people thinking about other players than people I feel they've focused on. Town tends to get tunnel vision when they smell scum, I try to prevent that by forcing open thoughts on others. In turn I generally hope it leads to better reads through the game. I'm not doing it at this stage as the game is too small to expect anyone to tunnel so hard as to ignore the other 3 players without looking suspicious.

Cyri jumps on the Yun wagon early (though everyone kinda did) and I get the impression of either scum trying to look proactive or town casting around for a theory.

I wouldn't say I was jumping on the wagon when I'm the one who pioneered the wagon since D2.

D2 is probably the towniest Day. Cyri spends a lot of time responding to Yun, who gets progressively more defensive and tunnels on Cyri in response. Cyri's also got early consistent scumreads on both Meso and Yun that endure.

D3 is a continutation of this but with less pushback from my focus, did you consider this in your read?
 
I'm running to the store and need to cook tonight but I should be here for the last bit of EoD.
 
I'm going to try to be around but I have raid from ~9 to 10 so may have to miss the last hour or only check in very briefly.
Good luck with your raiding.

I am here, but I don't have a lot to add and I will probably be in bed by EoD since I have to be up at 4 in the morning for work tomorrow.
 
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