Grandfather Clock and the Town of Mimics (Mafia)

Honestly, my read on Shalmoa isn't that solid. It's a game with no real mechanical hooks for town to use, so I'm kinda against 'locking' anyone as town at all before they flip really as that's just setting up blindspots for yourself. That said, my general impression of Shalmoa's someone who's been consistently engaging in fairly good faith and making the right gestures in activity and venturing opinions.

I think Shalmoa's been maybe a bit too focused on identifying scum pairs over scummy players, but this feels like a towny mistake to make overall once the habit starts building. Overall, Shalmoa's felt like they're applying their own logic and reasoning to hunt for scum, which is what town should be doing, instead of just jumping on other's reasoning or working backwards from a desired vote to a rationale.
 
smh, I say I'll take it easy, just subbing in.

>Writes out a 700 word post after about an hour.

I totally have control :)V) and I'll post it after @Yun drops their post.
 
As extensive as you think is necessary to get your viewpoint and reasoning across.
Fair enough, and the short answer is scum. The long answer was something I was planning to work into my EoD post, but I'll try to make it concise.

Because while rereading through the thread I noticed that the interjection by Shalmoa in #560 to the post in #550, and reply to Cyri on D3 #737 are rather odd in similarity when taking into consideration how Cyri reacted to Shalmoa in the latter, which when combined with the fact that Cyri kept querying QT about various things led to a rather troubling possibility. Basically through consistently poking QT Cyri either baits someone into going after him leading to convenient Mylo target daye four/five, or go into Mylo with a well grounded win/win argument using something along the lines of "Well believe me I know QT has been inactive as I've been poking him, but my other option is...".

Based upon various players reads of them before the players died... they have the motivation behind killing Zaelix as he was the only one of comparable level to them, which is pending a few responses toward me. I suppose an argument might be made of killing Zaelix, and using his post in #528 alongside #610, but that seems a risky plan compared to just waiting, and a quick check of the day shows nobody mentioned it until now.

Finally the post in #588 comes across as a tad odd, or rather the inclusion of my post is at least given given it I already poked the player in question about my post in #573. Also the fact that it only happened once toward a single player.

Anyways I hope all of that makes sense, and I need to go do a few things feel free to ask my questions, which I'll try to reply when I get back.
 
I'll admit I'm not sure I agree with some of the arguments you're using but I do agree with the end result of Shalmoa scum. Where Cyri is one of the teammates that fit there in a scum Shalmoa world, alongside Meso and IH, no one else.

I don't like making team reads without a scum flip but you, Shadell, and Pyrros notably do not work with Shalmoa for one reason or another.
 
And here's the post now.


I wasn't sure on -Rosen's wording, so I wanted to be clear on which question I was answering. I don't think it's very likely to be right, because it's a hard question. If -Rosen wants the other answer, he's free to tell me. I provided this answer specifically because I think it is an interesting thought, and I went to the effort of thinking about it.

I will provide no reasoning on the details as of yet, as per the GtH.

This post feels somewhat like trying to reduce any culpability about if the reads are right or not. I don't deny that it is difficult to have an accurate pair that early but at the same time I don't see the point in trying to undermine it like this. Its explicitly meant to just be your view at the moment, there isn't a need to inherently have it correct.

I'm with Shadell and Yun on this one. I don't like how -Rosen's moving the vote, even if I see the reasoning behind it as potentially being objectively correct for a guaranteed town player to take advantage of. The problem of course being that it's also pretty much optimal for a scum player.

I'm finding this whole interaction to be particularly convenient for the potential -Rosen/Zaealix scum team, and I will note that in my readings those two have had very little direct interaction with each other in the thread despite actively posting around each other. While I expect that this is completely NAI on -Rosen's behalf, it is what I would expect from a relative newbie like Zaealix seems to be while playing scum for the first time. I'm not at all sold on this combination, but we would be remiss to dismiss it. The idea that Zaealix probably isn't scum because nobody's tried defending him is cleanly struck down in this particular scenario by -Rosen's actions as town lead.
The first section is shading Rosen and removing culpability. Tying their reason to Yun and Shadell, while stating that it is good for either alignment and yet not likely Rosen over it rather than having it be a neutral or looking at a different aspect.

Trying to put together a scum team of Rosen and Zaelix, acknowledging it is a weak idea, and then still pushing it in. Especially with a weak case, when even with Zaelix being relatively scumread, it would not have been hard to get the vote off of him in a less controversial manner, that wouldn't tie them like that and sink a lot of Rosen's credibility. Its just a weak case where they waffle on it and call it as such, where this feels like another example of not wanting to really tie themselves to anything.

If I interpret this as town!Scia's scumhunting: "Cyricubed was sheeping -Rosen until -Rosen changed his vote. Cyricubed has sheeped -Rosen prior, this appears to be a trend. Cyricubed is suspicious."

Maybe I'm horribly mischaracterizing this argument, but it's pretty much the only way I can read it. It's really bad scumhunting, but I guess it could be considered scumhunting. I think town!Scia needs to consider the statistically more likely probability that Cyricubed is town and try to analyze why Cyri's actions point towards the world of scum!Cyri over town!Cyri.

If I interpret this as scum!Scia's scumhunting, then the omitted context makes a lot more sense. The goal of this play then clearly becomes an attempt to promote one of the mislynches scum needs to win. "Cyricubed is suspicious" is a pretty harmless statement to make at first glance. Adding the vote logs adds a little bit more of a sense of legitimacy. The context would largely alleviate most suspicion that could actually be generated, so provide the post links to make it look like context isn't being omitted, but omit any vote by vote comments to avoid immediately giving up the game. Scum!Scia already knows whether or not Cyri is town, and if she's trying to frame Cyri for mislynching then we can be reasonably sure that it's a town!Cyri world. Scum!Scia doesn't need or particularly want to provide evidence that allows the determination of the town!Cyri world though, since in that world trying to set Cyri up for mislynch requires that not too many people think of him as town.

Thus, the point that absolutely stands out to me is that I can't see any action Cyricubed could've taken that would've altered this narrative at all. There doesn't seem to be any thought to "but I think town!Cyricubed would have done this". It could just be bad scumhunting, but if I assume Scia is playing to try to win then I come to the conclusion that that post is more likely written by scum!Scia than town!Scia.
I'll be honest that regardless of my view of Scia's play, this middle section just makes no sense to me and frankly is trying to push an agenda fairly heavily. Where Shalmoa accuses Scia of predetermining her view of Cyri, I see much of the same in this post. Where it likely touches on why the post could be town Scia and then brushes it away without considering it deeper while taking the worst possible interpretations for Scia's alignment throughout.

Where frankly, I do think the post is ascribing things to Scia that are outside of her current skill level, and somewhat blatantly so at that.

Not -Rosen, but my opinion on this is rather that scum!Yun and scum!QTesseract wanted their Day 1 votes to be on each other as distancing. It would put QTesseract in a really good position for "who would bus their team mate on Day 1 like that?", it would put Yun in an okay position for similar reasons but with more overall suspicion, and QTesseract was not being actively sussed by Nictis and thus is fairly disconnected from the night kill. I'll also argue that scum!QTesseract has also been trying to buddy up to -Rosen a little bit with echoing their game theory thoughts without making any tangible commitments. Especially tagging along on -Rosen's infoyeet comment towards me, when like -Rosen he hadn't done much to address it when Yun first brought up the idea in post #59 (which was also when QT was active).

This inactive play from QTesseract, assuming it's intentional and for scum QT it very well might be, actively harms town's attempt to hunt him via interactions or scum slips, yet in the case of an actual inactivity lynch he's probably confident in being able to outpost Scia.

In other words QT/Yun is one scum team possibility that I also really don't want to eliminate without a lot of consideration, and without participation from QTesseract I have no way to begin to consider how to disprove it. While I think that other teams are very possible still, this one feels exceptionally dangerous to me, and if QTesseract doesn't start participating soon, I feel like I have to assume that he's more likely to be scum than Scia.

The thing that first led me to this is considering your (Cyricubed's) ping today for QT's thoughts on Shadell/meso interactions regarding the NK, so I've been waiting to see if we get a response for him before really trying to push this as an actual case though. QT, -Rosen, and mesonoxian were my primary thoughts for who'd benefit most from the Nictis NK, but -Rosen's preemptively buried that under a mountain of wine (which I don't like, btw, but I can discount it so long as I have a scum team that doesn't include him that looks to be in a better spot) and I've been getting more of a paranoid town!meso vibe than a scum!meso vibe. His posting is loud at the moment but I don't believe it's actually distracting from the scumhunting efforts that much.

In other words, I think Scia's post is scummy but not so scummy that it's implausible to have come from scum Scia. But everything I see from QT so far has me diving into a pit of paranoia. I don't see how town!QT explains this level of activity and the relatively low apparent engagement with the vote even during EoD1 when he was definitely around. It feels too much like trying for safety in obscurity.

So this is just more wasted time on world-building where there also is nothing good about this first half of the post. It argues QT not being sussed by Nictis is a bonus point towards him going down but why does that matter? It was always going to be a Nictis or Rosen death N1, where Nictis was notably less divisive to people and was in a better position to work with people directly.

I get that inactives are bad and annoying to solve, but there is a clear case of taking the inactivity as an excuse to slot them into team reads and then actively ascribing motives to them. Then there is the case of trying to push for night kill analysis based on who benefits and why, when there is no point to that when it is probably the most expected nightkill option by a mile.

Then it jumps back to Scia as a somewhat unnatural and shoe horned in aside, before going back to the QT tunnel, though this QT section is justified unlike the earlier bit.

So, I'm probably biased here, since it's my own counter-case, but I'm not really seeing that same level of case against Zaealix, especially with -Rosen flipped. That said, I do think Zaealix was a surprisingly on point pick by scum, because of how few scum reads it's likely to eliminate. That said, I'm inclined to lean Scia's analysis a little bit scummier than meso's here. I'm not sure if I town-lean meso's analysis or not though. However, if I think back to D1's NK analysis, then I find myself a bit more concerned with meso jumping at -Rosen. I have meso/Scia marked down as an oddity in my notes, but with how Yun's currently acting I find it difficult to believe they're on a scum team together.

I'm still hoping @InterstellarHobo can get me his NK thoughts before I go into my own NK analysis, and I'm busy IRL today so don't expect too much posting from me for the next roughly 8 hours, but I think there's interesting thoughts to be had here.

See, I vehemently disagree with this post. Sure, Zaelix had very few reads but why does that matter? This is a mountainous game when there were a few active players who were stronger than the rest alive (Cyri and Shadell). Why is killing people who are the top town players if town going to be something where reads factor into it?

This feels like its trying to ascribe a reason that doesn't need to exist for this kill. I will admit this is a supposition, but it feels like trying to justify it in the thread and pushing their own narrative for the kill. Namely that it was to reduce the possible teams reads that would be eliminated (a view that fits with their in thread actions of pushing for team reads). This is rather than options like to keep a strong scum team member alive for late game with weird kills which makes more sense and is striking in its absence.

And the rest of this is just very much waffling without a major base to work from in my eyes.
 
@Cyricubed What are your thoughts on Shadell, meso, and Shalmoa?

Finally tore myself away from essentials to get responses in! Also Hello Pawn welcome to game! Honestly glad to have something revive the day chat because I haven't seen anything from Pyrros yet.

Shadell- On further review it's actually a Light town-Neutral read. D1's interactions with rosen feel natural and imo they weren't bad arguments. D2 Shadell is pretty decent but I feel like something is lacking. And their D3 while pretty okay, I've noticed some things that I expected reactions from but instead are dropped. Not sus, could just be game exhaustion setting it. However on tone read as well I view shadell as trying to keep the game discussion alive to get more analysis on the table so more !town shad points.

Meso- Scum read still. The hyper tunnel onto -Rosen itself isn't bad but rather it's this constant hedging of: Yun is suspicious but QT over here for the entire day phase up until the replacement in which it's a forced swap. I've pointed out some things earlier but I'm getting the impression that Meso is avoiding directly influencing the Yun wagon or was trying to save Yun as the D4 lynch assuming nothing changes in between. In addition there is a recent post that pushes my !scum Meso opinion further but I'll hold that off in hopes someone else can notice it and point it out.

Shal-(Also responding for Pawn)- Outright town read. My thought process regarding shal is limited as I've only played 2 day phases with them and I wasn't super active for that game either. I think shal's points are thought out and relatively sound. Given their a newer player I'm pretty sure they'd have made some sort of slip by now on top of that, if only a minor one that could be focused on. But really I haven't seen any of the sort. So yeah. Town read.

Who shall be the last plank in the ship though? Who shall be the last elder giving advice and knowing the true reason before they too are replaced and forgotten?

Obviously the ships bird. I refuse to sink when I can just fly.
 
So yeah, tl;dr I came into the thread with some minor suspicions of Shalmoa based on Zaelix that expanded into a full blown scum read as I ISO'd them in depth. Where the below section is the full explained reason for the minor vote suspicion.

Namely, Zaelix had two real reads, a major scum read on Meso and a minor one on Shalmoa. Where the latter one is very uncommon and the former was almost certainly going to be common going into D3.

So there's no point to kill from the Meso sus. So I had 4 reasons jumping in, with 2 major ones.

The unlikely two are that it was a framejob onto Shalmoa but that's frankly too subtle to work and isn't likely or that it was a kill ignorant of the actual gamestate.

So we have the realistic options of a good player making an unorthodox kill to give a reason why they're alive late into the game or that no one had any real sus on Shalmoa outside of Zaelix and Zaelix wanted to kill them so that they could go deep.
 
D2 Shadell is pretty decent but I feel like something is lacking. And their D3 while pretty okay, I've noticed some things that I expected reactions from but instead are dropped. Not sus, could just be game exhaustion setting it.

Yeah, I do feel a bit of a need to apologize for this. I came into the day intending to keep my pace from the later part of D1, but then immediately got a bit sick, incredibly stressed out about IRL bullshit, and then hearing that my grandmother was dying right when I finally started typing up a post to gear up for EoD. Last weekend into this week has been, well, extremely 2020 personally.

I think I'm mostly on the mend on most parts of that.

So yeah, tl;dr I came into the thread with some minor suspicions of Shalmoa based on Zaelix that expanded into a full blown scum read as I ISO'd them in depth. Where the below section is the full explained reason for the minor vote suspicion.

Okay, and why didn't you just lead with this instead of the whole request to have everyone give their reads which you seem to have dropped after very few bit?
 
Okay, and why didn't you just lead with this instead of the whole request to have everyone give their reads which you seem to have dropped after very few bit?

Because I wanted to see views before I directly influenced them by making the post and I was curious what my own in depth ISO would bring.

Plus I was hoping that it wouldn't take hours to get most of the 6 people to bite. Instead I got 3 in you, Yun, and Cyri. I know Meso was at least somewhat around and didn't say anything based on him rating me and checking the thread and not saying anything. While IH and Pyrros are the other two subs and have had the least amount of time to really orient themselves.

So I got 3, the 4th looking but not biting is something I'm noting, and ultimately the last two are the least important. And time and activity are a finite resource, especially when I have papers I'm writing. There is only so much time the thread can spare and only so much time I can spare. I just felt it wasn't worth the wait at that point ultimately.
 
@mesonoxian @InterstellarHobo @PyrrosWarrior @QTesseract Can all of you give me a player read similar to what Shadell did two posts above my own? I'm looking to confirm something, and based upon the time remaining for me a speedy reply would be much appreciated.
Sorry, I'm still reading. Mafia requires my full attention when I play, rather than the spastic "follow every other alert" I do with other threads. That combined with this being the busiest period of time I've had all month has left me a bit behind. I have a few hours free now so I should be caught up soon.

Sorry again!
 
Still reads like a fairly weak defense for something you seem to have admitted was a bit manipulative.

I mean, Pyrros literally proved my point with saying he isn't fully caught up and it would take him hours to be. Time is a precious commodity that we need to get everything from, considering the situation we're in.

So I don't feel wrong with how I went about it. And don't particularly view not stating the reason why I asked the Shalmoa question initially as really that manipulative.

Once I stated that I always had to state why I asked the question at sone point, so it always comes out and I thought I could get a purer result this way.
 
Finally tore myself away from essentials to get responses in! Also Hello Pawn welcome to game! Honestly glad to have something revive the day chat because I haven't seen anything from Pyrros yet.

Shadell- On further review it's actually a Light town-Neutral read. D1's interactions with rosen feel natural and imo they weren't bad arguments. D2 Shadell is pretty decent but I feel like something is lacking. And their D3 while pretty okay, I've noticed some things that I expected reactions from but instead are dropped. Not sus, could just be game exhaustion setting it. However on tone read as well I view shadell as trying to keep the game discussion alive to get more analysis on the table so more !town shad points.

Meso- Scum read still. The hyper tunnel onto -Rosen itself isn't bad but rather it's this constant hedging of: Yun is suspicious but QT over here for the entire day phase up until the replacement in which it's a forced swap. I've pointed out some things earlier but I'm getting the impression that Meso is avoiding directly influencing the Yun wagon or was trying to save Yun as the D4 lynch assuming nothing changes in between. In addition there is a recent post that pushes my !scum Meso opinion further but I'll hold that off in hopes someone else can notice it and point it out.

Shal-(Also responding for Pawn)- Outright town read. My thought process regarding shal is limited as I've only played 2 day phases with them and I wasn't super active for that game either. I think shal's points are thought out and relatively sound. Given their a newer player I'm pretty sure they'd have made some sort of slip by now on top of that, if only a minor one that could be focused on. But really I haven't seen any of the sort. So yeah. Town read.



Obviously the ships bird. I refuse to sink when I can just fly.
For Shadell I'll just accept her post she made in response to this, and I had irl issues for dropping off for awhile on D3 tbh, which would I'd be a hypocrite alongside a bunch of other things not to do so.

For meso unless my memory is failing me he swapped off, and onto rosen at least once. The impression I'm getting is flailing due to a struggle to get reads, and the general negative feedback from lynch results, which when paired with the point I made about the nk not making much sense for meso per #740. Hm, is it the not caring if he is killed tomorrow if we get a scum today?

So out of curiosity what would you categorize #618 from Shalmoa as?
So yeah, tl;dr I came into the thread with some minor suspicions of Shalmoa based on Zaelix that expanded into a full blown scum read as I ISO'd them in depth. Where the below section is the full explained reason for the minor vote suspicion.

Namely, Zaelix had two real reads, a major scum read on Meso and a minor one on Shalmoa. Where the latter one is very uncommon and the former was almost certainly going to be common going into D3.

So there's no point to kill from the Meso sus. So I had 4 reasons jumping in, with 2 major ones.

The unlikely two are that it was a framejob onto Shalmoa but that's frankly too subtle to work and isn't likely or that it was a kill ignorant of the actual gamestate.

So we have the realistic options of a good player making an unorthodox kill to give a reason why they're alive late into the game or that no one had any real sus on Shalmoa outside of Zaelix and Zaelix wanted to kill them so that they could go deep.
Hm. Out of curiosity from your pov what makes Shalmoa qualify as a minor read by Zaexc ompared to say Cyri?
 
Hm. Out of curiosity from your pov what makes Shalmoa qualify as a minor read by Zaexc ompared to say Cyri?

There was like one post where Cyri was touched on as a sus read by Zaelix and it wasn't particularly anti-consensus to my understanding. Where meanwhile, Shalmoa was stated as a slight scum read for quite a few posts from Zaelix by comparison.
 
Finally tore myself away from essentials to get responses in! Also Hello Pawn welcome to game! Honestly glad to have something revive the day chat because I haven't seen anything from Pyrros yet.

Shadell- On further review it's actually a Light town-Neutral read. D1's interactions with rosen feel natural and imo they weren't bad arguments. D2 Shadell is pretty decent but I feel like something is lacking. And their D3 while pretty okay, I've noticed some things that I expected reactions from but instead are dropped. Not sus, could just be game exhaustion setting it. However on tone read as well I view shadell as trying to keep the game discussion alive to get more analysis on the table so more !town shad points.

Meso- Scum read still. The hyper tunnel onto -Rosen itself isn't bad but rather it's this constant hedging of: Yun is suspicious but QT over here for the entire day phase up until the replacement in which it's a forced swap. I've pointed out some things earlier but I'm getting the impression that Meso is avoiding directly influencing the Yun wagon or was trying to save Yun as the D4 lynch assuming nothing changes in between. In addition there is a recent post that pushes my !scum Meso opinion further but I'll hold that off in hopes someone else can notice it and point it out.

Shal-(Also responding for Pawn)- Outright town read. My thought process regarding shal is limited as I've only played 2 day phases with them and I wasn't super active for that game either. I think shal's points are thought out and relatively sound. Given their a newer player I'm pretty sure they'd have made some sort of slip by now on top of that, if only a minor one that could be focused on. But really I haven't seen any of the sort. So yeah. Town read.



Obviously the ships bird. I refuse to sink when I can just fly.
Just for the record, I swapped to Yun before the switch when QT said he didn't think he'd be able to et subbed out, but explained he had real world stuff going on before and would try to be more active. I don't like doing policy votes. They feel like a criticism of the player rather than their play, so if QT had a good reason and intended to play, I'd move to my preferred scum read, which is Yun at this point. Then he did get subbed out rendering the whole thing meaningless. But if QT hadn't posted, my vote would still be on them.

If Yun were my team mate, I'd probably actually have been a lot more careful about how I interacted with them than I actually have been. I don't think much about appearances as town, I try to focus on solving and not wasting daykills. If we were a team I'd probably never have mentioned them rather than spending a lot of time trying to figure them out, and to be honest, I probably would have bussed them day two rather than try to go up against Rosen like that, since it would be far easier to nightkill them and go into day three having led a vote on scum.
 
This post feels somewhat like trying to reduce any culpability about if the reads are right or not. I don't deny that it is difficult to have an accurate pair that early but at the same time I don't see the point in trying to undermine it like this. Its explicitly meant to just be your view at the moment, there isn't a need to inherently have it correct.
I suppose that's a fair take, but at the time I didn't have a ton of confidence in it overall and I wanted to make it explicit.
The first section is shading Rosen and removing culpability. Tying their reason to Yun and Shadell, while stating that it is good for either alignment and yet not likely Rosen over it rather than having it be a neutral or looking at a different aspect.

Trying to put together a scum team of Rosen and Zaelix, acknowledging it is a weak idea, and then still pushing it in. Especially with a weak case, when even with Zaelix being relatively scumread, it would not have been hard to get the vote off of him in a less controversial manner, that wouldn't tie them like that and sink a lot of Rosen's credibility. Its just a weak case where they waffle on it and call it as such, where this feels like another example of not wanting to really tie themselves to anything.
I mentioned that I would explain anything on D1 if anyone asked. The reasoning for the D1 tunnel, and that post in particular, was to pressure Zaealix. I wanted to see if he would try to tie the vote as self preservation, if he would go after me, or if he would try to present an alternative case. That is the reason I specifically chose to ping him at that time, when the votes would have been tied had he voted the leading wagon. That he chose to do nothing is why I went into D2 townreading him. I figured scum would absolutely push for some kind of self-preservation there.

While I am willing to admit this reasoning is scummy, I wanted to try to tie Zaealix's towniness to my own flip somehow in the hopes that he'd live longer than me.

Also even if something's NAI, there's nothing stopping me from not liking it.
I'll be honest that regardless of my view of Scia's play, this middle section just makes no sense to me and frankly is trying to push an agenda fairly heavily. Where Shalmoa accuses Scia of predetermining her view of Cyri, I see much of the same in this post. Where it likely touches on why the post could be town Scia and then brushes it away without considering it deeper while taking the worst possible interpretations for Scia's alignment throughout.

Where frankly, I do think the post is ascribing things to Scia that are outside of her current skill level, and somewhat blatantly so at that.
You've probably played more games with Scia than I have, and have at least read her posts in more detail overall. I've played town in exactly 1 game so far, and I've got what you just read through to show for it. All I have to support my reads are my views, and I have no idea how much pushing them is or isn't appropriate, so if you want to read that as scummy then I'm not going to complain too much.
So this is just more wasted time on world-building where there also is nothing good about this first half of the post. It argues QT not being sussed by Nictis is a bonus point towards him going down but why does that matter? It was always going to be a Nictis or Rosen death N1, where Nictis was notably less divisive to people and was in a better position to work with people directly.

I get that inactives are bad and annoying to solve, but there is a clear case of taking the inactivity as an excuse to slot them into team reads and then actively ascribing motives to them. Then there is the case of trying to push for night kill analysis based on who benefits and why, when there is no point to that when it is probably the most expected nightkill option by a mile.

Then it jumps back to Scia as a somewhat unnatural and shoe horned in aside, before going back to the QT tunnel, though this QT section is justified unlike the earlier bit.
I had hoped to see something from QT. In that regard, I'd say this post of yours is ultimately a decent success of that post. I absolutely would concede that it's a weak case overall, but I wanted to put it out there and see where it would go. If it meant QT scumread me and went after me for it, that would've been fine by me because it would give me something a lot real-er to base it on. If someone in another slot had commented on it heavily, that would've been fine because it would've helped me solve out the slot entirely. So, excuse me for having a paranoia read as a newbie and wanting to see what I'd get out of it. Regarding Scia, it felt like a relevant tangent at the time as our primary other example low activity player, and I wanted to preemptively answer why I was going for QT in this scenario over her. Take that how you will.
See, I vehemently disagree with this post. Sure, Zaelix had very few reads but why does that matter? This is a mountainous game when there were a few active players who were stronger than the rest alive (Cyri and Shadell). Why is killing people who are the top town players if town going to be something where reads factor into it?

This feels like its trying to ascribe a reason that doesn't need to exist for this kill. I will admit this is a supposition, but it feels like trying to justify it in the thread and pushing their own narrative for the kill. Namely that it was to reduce the possible teams reads that would be eliminated (a view that fits with their in thread actions of pushing for team reads). This is rather than options like to keep a strong scum team member alive for late game with weird kills which makes more sense and is striking in its absence.

And the rest of this is just very much waffling without a major base to work from in my eyes.
I'm reasonably sure that whoever picked the Zaealix NK did so because, in their eyes, it was close to optimal. It does help cover the potential stronger scum players, absolutely. At the same time, I don't think Zaealix was really as widely scumread as meso's post at the time would make it seem. Perhaps I misunderstood the gamestate by a large fraction there, but it didn't seem to me like there was a lot of reason to assume that Zaealix was anything other than probable-town. There weren't many possible pairings around Zaealix, and Zaealix being eliminated would not particularly help town to solve town or scum either way. Eliminating only strong players would provide a lot more reason to suspect the remaining strong players, but perhaps that didn't come across in my original post as something I had considered.

What struck me, however, is that Zaealix is legitimately probably who I would've picked for the NK on N2 in the given game state. I wanted to share my reasoning there because I felt like it was something to compare to. Some potential insight into what scum is actually thinking obtained only by coincidence. If I'm wrong, then call me out on that. If trying to understand what scum's thinking is wrong, then call me out on that.

I have no idea how to waffle or avoid waffling, sorry.
So yeah, tl;dr I came into the thread with some minor suspicions of Shalmoa based on Zaelix that expanded into a full blown scum read as I ISO'd them in depth. Where the below section is the full explained reason for the minor vote suspicion.

Namely, Zaelix had two real reads, a major scum read on Meso and a minor one on Shalmoa. Where the latter one is very uncommon and the former was almost certainly going to be common going into D3.

So there's no point to kill from the Meso sus. So I had 4 reasons jumping in, with 2 major ones.

The unlikely two are that it was a framejob onto Shalmoa but that's frankly too subtle to work and isn't likely or that it was a kill ignorant of the actual gamestate.

So we have the realistic options of a good player making an unorthodox kill to give a reason why they're alive late into the game or that no one had any real sus on Shalmoa outside of Zaelix and Zaelix wanted to kill them so that they could go deep.
Yet, you've constructed the exact scenario for that frame job yourself. The only issue is, there's absolutely no way I could've planned it out this way.

I realize this probably isn't terribly much of a defense. Honestly, I might be convinced if I didn't have my own role card to look at or -Rosen's own statement on this. If you're legitimately trying to push this scenario, you're ascribing me quite a bit of skill that in my eyes doesn't seem much more justified than the skills I attributed Scia in your eyes.

With the skills I do have, I'd like to say that scum!me killing Zaealix over having a mild sus on me? I have my own opinion on Zaealix's skills. I spent most of my previous game watching his play, due to our connection via the mirror shards. I'd like to say I have a decent mental model for him, and the level of suspicion he held of me versus the level of suspicion that everyone seemed to hold of him? Honestly, I can't see myself choosing to kill him for that reason. Scum!me, I'd much rather use him as a distraction or cover, at this point, but keeping him in the thread. I'm pretty sure that would've been possible, no offense meant to Zaealix. I mean, in this scenario, scum!me has also somehow managed to fool -Rosen, mesonoxian, Cyricubed, and maybe Shadell. Scum!me would rightfully have a pretty large ego at this point for that alone. I can't deny that scum!me might decide to kill Zaealix anyways, but I doubt I'd have gone to the same effort of trying to pressure him D1 just to try and tie his towniness to my own townflip D2.

That said Pawn, thank you for providing something substantial to work with here. I think I can townlean your slot for it, because if you were scum you'd know I was town, and either you're betting on this not working out or you legitimately don't know that.

Final fake edit: ...should I have put more thought into this post and edited it more carefully? Probably. But please ask more specific questions if you'd like clarification from me on any of this.
 
There was like one post where Cyri was touched on as a sus read by Zaelix and it wasn't particularly anti-consensus to my understanding. Where meanwhile, Shalmoa was stated as a slight scum read for quite a few posts from Zaelix by comparison.
The post count checks out, and nothing seems obviously off about your interpretation of the posts by Zaex.

Also I'm curious why myself, Shadell, and Pyrros do not work with Shalmoa? (You mentioned this in an earlier post)
 
I mentioned that I would explain anything on D1 if anyone asked. The reasoning for the D1 tunnel, and that post in particular, was to pressure Zaealix. I wanted to see if he would try to tie the vote as self preservation, if he would go after me, or if he would try to present an alternative case. That is the reason I specifically chose to ping him at that time, when the votes would have been tied had he voted the leading wagon. That he chose to do nothing is why I went into D2 townreading him. I figured scum would absolutely push for some kind of self-preservation there.

While I am willing to admit this reasoning is scummy, I wanted to try to tie Zaealix's towniness to my own flip somehow in the hopes that he'd live longer than me.

Also even if something's NAI, there's nothing stopping me from not liking it.
Just as a piece of advice, regardless of your alignment. Do not treat self-preserving as something scummy, since it absolutely is something you should do as town. Generally, every townie starts the game with one role flip, their own. Don't play risk averse and shy of putting yourself out there from the worry you'll become a target obviously, but when it comes to the vote never go down without swinging. Preserving a confirmed town from your perspective is the correct choice 95% of the time.

And fair enough for the NAI bit.

You've probably played more games with Scia than I have, and have at least read her posts in more detail overall. I've played town in exactly 1 game so far, and I've got what you just read through to show for it. All I have to support my reads are my views, and I have no idea how much pushing them is or isn't appropriate, so if you want to read that as scummy then I'm not going to complain too much.

I've played like one game with Scia. :V

Been vaguely dead in terms of playing mafia recently due to running mafia jury and LSAT prep. And pushing your reads or not isn't why I'm scum reading this post. I'm scum reading this post since from my view, it looks like an agenda to me.

Since I see what you're accusing Scia of within your own argument and didn't really see it from Scia's when I checked her posts.

I had hoped to see something from QT. In that regard, I'd say this post of yours is ultimately a decent success of that post. I absolutely would concede that it's a weak case overall, but I wanted to put it out there and see where it would go. If it meant QT scumread me and went after me for it, that would've been fine by me because it would give me something a lot real-er to base it on. If someone in another slot had commented on it heavily, that would've been fine because it would've helped me solve out the slot entirely. So, excuse me for having a paranoia read as a newbie and wanting to see what I'd get out of it. Regarding Scia, it felt like a relevant tangent at the time as our primary other example low activity player, and I wanted to preemptively answer why I was going for QT in this scenario over her. Take that how you will.
I mean, my post is an outside context thing due to me being a sub and I would have been casing you regardless of the post this section was quoting.

And two questions here. 1, how would an outside slot commenting on it help you solve QT? There are only so many connectives that can be gleaned from that.

2, I'm not denying that a blank slot can be a paranoia read but in that case you say to flip it first, but instead you keep trying to actively team solve without a scum flip. Which is where a lot of this circles back to for me. Actively pushing for only team solves makes you look like you are trying to find pairs to either connect so that if a teammate goes down you can domino into them or say the scum had to be in the unflipped member of the pair.

It's just a generally unhelpful method for town, while being a useful one for scum. And perhaps on the Scia one, Scia was quiet but there were fewer people going after her for inactivity, it doesn't feel like you would have needed to preemptively cover yourself.

I'm reasonably sure that whoever picked the Zaealix NK did so because, in their eyes, it was close to optimal. It does help cover the potential stronger scum players, absolutely. At the same time, I don't think Zaealix was really as widely scumread as meso's post at the time would make it seem. Perhaps I misunderstood the gamestate by a large fraction there, but it didn't seem to me like there was a lot of reason to assume that Zaealix was anything other than probable-town. There weren't many possible pairings around Zaealix, and Zaealix being eliminated would not particularly help town to solve town or scum either way. Eliminating only strong players would provide a lot more reason to suspect the remaining strong players, but perhaps that didn't come across in my original post as something I had considered.

What struck me, however, is that Zaealix is legitimately probably who I would've picked for the NK on N2 in the given game state. I wanted to share my reasoning there because I felt like it was something to compare to. Some potential insight into what scum is actually thinking obtained only by coincidence. If I'm wrong, then call me out on that. If trying to understand what scum's thinking is wrong, then call me out on that.

I have no idea how to waffle or avoid waffling, sorry.

I mean, literally the only time when the kill is close to optimal is if you specifically are mafia. Otherwise, they could literally just kill a power player for a thread control kill or any of the inactives with around Zaelix's post count and read depth for a tinfoil kill.

None of the latter group meaningfully gives less cover and anyone can chime in here, but while Zaelix wasn't actively scum read much anymore, there were not really any active town reads on them either. In terms of not solving, there were comparable reads if they wanted to avoid the stronger players, so I don't really agree with the idea of him as optimal.

And I mean, that last section kind of is proving my point. Unless scum misread the game state in the exact way you did and picked the one in that grouping who specifically is only the best of that group with you, it doesn't make sense. While I still scum read you outside of it, it just enhances it.

And, don't worry. Its something you learn how to do with time. And waffling isn't inherently bad despite how I've been presenting it. There just has to be a clear and stated reason why you're waffling, rather than doing so without an obvious reason why.

Yet, you've constructed the exact scenario for that frame job yourself. The only issue is, there's absolutely no way I could've planned it out this way.

I realize this probably isn't terribly much of a defense. Honestly, I might be convinced if I didn't have my own role card to look at or -Rosen's own statement on this. If you're legitimately trying to push this scenario, you're ascribing me quite a bit of skill that in my eyes doesn't seem much more justified than the skills I attributed Scia in your eyes.

With the skills I do have, I'd like to say that scum!me killing Zaealix over having a mild sus on me? I have my own opinion on Zaealix's skills. I spent most of my previous game watching his play, due to our connection via the mirror shards. I'd like to say I have a decent mental model for him, and the level of suspicion he held of me versus the level of suspicion that everyone seemed to hold of him? Honestly, I can't see myself choosing to kill him for that reason. Scum!me, I'd much rather use him as a distraction or cover, at this point, but keeping him in the thread. I'm pretty sure that would've been possible, no offense meant to Zaealix. I mean, in this scenario, scum!me has also somehow managed to fool -Rosen, mesonoxian, Cyricubed, and maybe Shadell. Scum!me would rightfully have a pretty large ego at this point for that alone. I can't deny that scum!me might decide to kill Zaealix anyways, but I doubt I'd have gone to the same effort of trying to pressure him D1 just to try and tie his towniness to my own townflip D2.

That said Pawn, thank you for providing something substantial to work with here. I think I can townlean your slot for it, because if you were scum you'd know I was town, and either you're betting on this not working out or you legitimately don't know that.

Final fake edit: ...should I have put more thought into this post and edited it more carefully? Probably. But please ask more specific questions if you'd like clarification from me on any of this.

I mean, it doesn't require a lot of skill regarding what I'm attributing to you? It's just knowing that there's one person primarily pushing you and killing them before they can gain any traction + hoping that good players will start tinfoiling. And while Zaelix likely was not able to get out of his position and push common scum reads for you, the possibility still existed. Couple that with the aforementioned tinfoil hope, and removing that small chance is just a bonus. Plus, there are still two scum players, there's no need to come up with it on your own.

Also, it isn't hard to be at least moderately town read in this game frankly. D2 had a decently toxic and extended fight between Rosen and Meso that took up attention and a solid chunk of the players have been inactives who ended up replacing out. You could just be moderately active and surface-level towny to get free town reads for existing and not being overly disruptive.

Also, an obligatory statement, that what Scum!me would do is inherently wine and should generally not be considered relevant. Look at the mindset, sure, but it should rarely actually impact how you view a player or their arguments.
 
Alright time to put my vote where my read is per this post.

[X] Vote Shalmoa

Feel free to ask questions, and I'll answer them as I can, but I'm rather tired atm tbh.
 
Just as a piece of advice, regardless of your alignment. Do not treat self-preserving as something scummy, since it absolutely is something you should do as town. Generally, every townie starts the game with one role flip, their own. Don't play risk averse and shy of putting yourself out there from the worry you'll become a target obviously, but when it comes to the vote never go down without swinging. Preserving a confirmed town from your perspective is the correct choice 95% of the time.

And fair enough for the NAI bit.
I wasn't intending to, pretty much any situation that Zaealix went for self-preservation for would've need to have been considered in the context of the result. That said, I can't read not going for self-preservation as particularly scummy in this case either. It coincidentally worked out that way this time, but obviously I have things to learn for the future.
I mean, my post is an outside context thing due to me being a sub and I would have been casing you regardless of the post this section was quoting.

And two questions here. 1, how would an outside slot commenting on it help you solve QT? There are only so many connectives that can be gleaned from that.

2, I'm not denying that a blank slot can be a paranoia read but in that case you say to flip it first, but instead you keep trying to actively team solve without a scum flip. Which is where a lot of this circles back to for me. Actively pushing for only team solves makes you look like you are trying to find pairs to either connect so that if a teammate goes down you can domino into them or say the scum had to be in the unflipped member of the pair.

It's just a generally unhelpful method for town, while being a useful one for scum. And perhaps on the Scia one, Scia was quiet but there were fewer people going after her for inactivity, it doesn't feel like you would have needed to preemptively cover yourself.
Q: Okay, I've been holding off on asking because I almost felt like it'd be a better thing for post-game/dead chat, but could someone explain to me what the primary downfall of considering the 66 possible scum teams over the 12 possible scum in a game where we have almost nothing to go off with the scum than the NKs and any potential interactions between players? And now I get it. God.

I guess that's fair regarding preemptive defense, but me at the time didn't feel that way and, yeah, that's on me. It's a lesson I know, but haven't learnt.

Regarding the questions: 1. Sure, but there are connectives. Maybe it wouldn't be anything substantial, but maybe it'd be something worth pushing a little and investigating for.

2. And now I get it. Welp.
I mean, it doesn't require a lot of skill regarding what I'm attributing to you? It's just knowing that there's one person primarily pushing you and killing them before they can gain any traction + hoping that good players will start tinfoiling. And while Zaelix likely was not able to get out of his position and push common scum reads for you, the possibility still existed. Couple that with the aforementioned tinfoil hope, and removing that small chance is just a bonus. Plus, there are still two scum players, there's no need to come up with it on your own.

Also, it isn't hard to be at least moderately town read in this game frankly. D2 had a decently toxic and extended fight between Rosen and Meso that took up attention and a solid chunk of the players have been inactives who ended up replacing out. You could just be moderately active and surface-level towny to get free town reads for existing and not being overly disruptive.

Also, an obligatory statement, that what Scum!me would do is inherently wine and should generally not be considered relevant. Look at the mindset, sure, but it should rarely actually impact how you view a player or their arguments.
Perhaps? At the same time, it certainly doesn't seem like that little skill from my end? I have no perspective here, and I think at this point that should be abundantly clear at least to you.
I mean, literally the only time when the kill is close to optimal is if you specifically are mafia. Otherwise, they could literally just kill a power player for a thread control kill or any of the inactives with around Zaelix's post count and read depth for a tinfoil kill.

None of the latter group meaningfully gives less cover and anyone can chime in here, but while Zaelix wasn't actively scum read much anymore, there were not really any active town reads on them either. In terms of not solving, there were comparable reads if they wanted to avoid the stronger players, so I don't really agree with the idea of him as optimal.

And I mean, that last section kind of is proving my point. Unless scum misread the game state in the exact way you did and picked the one in that grouping who specifically is only the best of that group with you, it doesn't make sense. While I still scum read you outside of it, it just enhances it.

And, don't worry. Its something you learn how to do with time. And waffling isn't inherently bad despite how I've been presenting it. There just has to be a clear and stated reason why you're waffling, rather than doing so without an obvious reason why.
I'd hate to say that it's only optimal in the case of scum!me. I'm pretty sure my misreading of the game state wasn't exactly unique, but yes, someone else would have to chime in to actually prove that. Of course, at this point that'd be like raising your hand and saying: "I'm the scum trying to frame Shalmoa", so I imagine nobody will do that.

I am still of the opinion that Yun is our best choice for generating our first scum flip. If others disagree, I'll move onto the wild flailing part of my defense, unless you'd advise that I try that first.
 
I guess that's fair regarding preemptive defense, but me at the time didn't feel that way and, yeah, that's on me. It's a lesson I know, but haven't learnt. Regarding the questions: 1. Sure, but there are connectives. Maybe it wouldn't be anything substantial, but maybe it'd be something worth pushing a little and investigating for. 2. And now I get it. Welp.
Lol, as long as you feel that you're learning and I'm not accidentally coming off as condescending. And I don't disagree that connectives are useful, I was more taking issue with the fact that you said they could help you solve the slot entirely. Which is a tad unrealistic, especially with this level of activity.
Perhaps? At the same time, it certainly doesn't seem like that little skill from my end? I have no perspective here, and I think at this point that should be abundantly clear at least to you.
I'm aware that you don't have much perspective due to lack of time and that I do have a somewhat skewed perspective myself due to coming off of a break, but it really isn't that difficult of an idea to try, especially with a teammate there to help collab.

I'd hate to say that it's only optimal in the case of scum!me. I'm pretty sure my misreading of the game state wasn't exactly unique, but yes, someone else would have to chime in to actually prove that. Of course, at this point that'd be like raising your hand and saying: "I'm the scum trying to frame Shalmoa", so I imagine nobody will do that.
I am still of the opinion that Yun is our best choice for generating our first scum flip. If others disagree, I'll move onto the wild flailing part of my defense, unless you'd advise that I try that first.
I mean, you can do a wild defense if you want. I very pointedly haven't voted you yet after all since I want to give you time to work with before doing that.

Since for example, I could easily see Meso or Cyri regardless of your alignment or Yun in a you town world. Its just a case of you needing to convince me of why they should be the ones going up.

The post count checks out, and nothing seems obviously off about your interpretation of the posts by Zaex.
Also I'm curious why myself, Shadell, and Pyrros do not work with Shalmoa? (You mentioned this in an earlier post)

She's just gone after you before D3 in terms of always bringing you up as a scum read far more than is necessary for distancing. Couple it with no reversal today and you're just hard unaligned.

For Shadell, its the weakest non w/w read of the group but she's generally my consistently most town read slot and I'll admit that I just doubt that in a Shalmoa world there is space for her over say Meso or Cyri. It just reads as unlikely to me.

Plus she mentions Shadell as an option in 726 in terms of being the person who decided the NK. And like, my question is why. Shadell would be the deep partner in this case, why would Shalmoa need to distance here in such a lackluster manner? It would just be simpler and better to keep it to Meso, Yun, etc. Just doesn't make sense.

With Pyrros, its how they treated Scia. Just a similar case to you where there is no need to go after her as inactive so much for distancing, not when so many players fit that mold on some level but didn't go in on hard.
 
Okay, and I'm caught up.

@mesonoxian @InterstellarHobo @PyrrosWarrior @QTesseract Can all of you give me a player read similar to what Shadell did two posts above my own? I'm looking to confirm something, and based upon the time remaining for me a speedy reply would be much appreciated.
Pick a side on Shalmoa and say why you townread or scumread them.
Cyricubed: They come off as light town with strong opinions. They've consistently stuck their neck out over things while also flowing rather naturally with the conversation of the hour. They aren't pushing specific narratives, but neither are they refusing to engage or give anything to whatever is going on at the moment. That feels like a Town Cyri.

Mesonoxian: Slight scum, but nothing damning enough to bet on it. They've made very pointed and public redirects that could come as shading Rosen heavily early on. They are definitely worth following up on, but I just am not getting strong enough thoughts reading through their posts to say that they are definitely without-a-doubt scum, as opposed to just having scummy posts (which, to an extent, most town trying to win will have).

Yun: NAI. I feel like the things you guys are pointing out as "hard scum" come off more as "light scum" at worst. Certainly nothing particularly damning for Yun. That said, a very consistent lack of actual direction is in their posts. Beyond defending themselves, they refuse to do anything more than just offer endless questions, a bit like Hobo. They are definitely worth trying to pressure into offering more solid stances and solid arguments against not just their past decisions, but also their current ones. They are either scum's easy lynch, or hapless scum whose only tactic is to redirect.

Shalmoa:
They come off more as bumbling town than scum if I were forced to choose as Pawn asked. No strong opinions on them though. Part of it can probably be attributed to the fact that I don't really know who they are or how they play.

OriginalName/InterstellarHobo: OriginalName's posts feel like hapless flailing back and forth and all around before becoming wishy-washy on whether or not to lynch Happerry. Are they new? If they are new, that's a "maybe confused town." If they aren't, that's, uh, have vet scum ever done refuge in audacity as a serious/wine tactic? For Hobo's part, they have been a bit better, though they still stay mostly on the outside of the arguments. Their modus operandi for the game has been throwing pointed questioning at specific individualsl (mostly against Rosen and now Yun) without much follow-up or actually leading that information into an argument. It could be an attempt to look Towny from a less active scum, or it could just be them doing what they can as Town without a lot of time available.

In general I feel like they should answer more anyhow, as they are one of the smaller posters of the thread. @InterstellarHobo

QuantumTesseract/Pawn Lelouch: Completely null. I didn't have a profile on QT going through this due to their general inactivity. I want to believe that they come off a bit as inactive town, but at the same time I don't really think that is in any way something I would be willing to bet on given that it, you know, would just purely be a subjective, gut read. Pawn, meanwhile, hasn't been around long enough for me to see anything of him that screams" this is totally Town Pawn."

Shadell: This one is a bit weird. I wouldn't say Shadell is scummy, but do you guys know how in most games Nictis and Terra or some other pair of "big name" players usually break out in to an argument that turns out to be Town v Town? Shadell's arguments up until this point feel kinda like that 3rd person in those arguments that usually shapes the narrative between the two without committing enough to have their name associated with it. I don't think that feeling is scummy in this context so much as NAI, but the complete ability of them to seriously have been considered basically the only person who hasn't really been pushed as being "possibly" scum in any manner out of all the active players kinda rankles my paranoia a bit. I don't know enough about them to know if that's their playstyle, or if they are possibly a good enough Mafia player to avoid the pitfalls that usually have most big name Town players with at least one black mark against them at this point.

Another thing that rankled my paranoia a bit going through there is that there weren't really any "arguments" over who to commit to lynching throughout each day. At least once by now you would think an argument would break out between two or more options, but nothing serious was really debated. Too peaceful a vote is generally indicative of scum leading town astray.

Just about the only good thing I can say is that it doesn't look like scum has really tried a divide-and-conquer strategy this game. For better or worse, that silence means that Town has stayed mostly united instead of being overly prone to in-fighting and factionalism to the better extent you could expect of a mafia game. That also means, however, that it is almost guaranteed that the at least one, but likely both, of the scum is among Town's leading players having subordinated the vote enough to feel safe. The important thing going forward would be to take care balancing Town's need for unity to leverage our numerical advantage, with the need to purge the scum hiding among us.

Whew. That was a long post to make. Almost 1000 words! I hope it's actually helpful. I kinda had a hard time forming some opinions on some people.
 
I'll probably be on for another 30-60 minutes while I read through DoofQuest if you guys want a response or follow-up soon, but probably not longer than that. I need to attend to some other things, plus all this reading has rather tired me out.
 
Okay, came back from ISOing everyone and I roughly have the game in two blocks.

Shadell/IH/Cyri I am currently town leaning, or town reading in the case of Shadell.

Shalmoa is my null by dint of the fact that 2 of my 3 options for them are in my town leans after ISOs. While Meso works with basically everyone and with how many people TR Shalmoa, its reasonable to always just flip Meso first.

While Meso/Yun/Pyrros are my current scum reads by dint of actively scum reading some things without having enough good from any of them to balance it out.

Now off to bed for me.
 
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