- Location
- Earth
Don't forget that Yun's voting for me. Is there something you know about my wagon that you're not sharing here?
Grandfather Clock and the Town of Mimics (Mafia)
- Thread starter Terrabrand
- Start date
- Mafia
-
- Tags
- mafia
InterstellarHobo
Cosmic Vagrant
- Location
- No Fixed Planetary System
This is functionally the second wagon of the Day. Splitting the wagon between the two people I consider scum is not going to plausibly allow a third person to win.
I don't think Yun has a plausible case on you. I don't think anyone else is anywhere near suspicious enough of you to vote for you. I think Yun is one of the scum, and even if I'm wrong on that and I perfectly split the remaining townies, scum can still at best tie by switching to vote you.
I don't think Yun has a plausible case on you. I don't think anyone else is anywhere near suspicious enough of you to vote for you. I think Yun is one of the scum, and even if I'm wrong on that and I perfectly split the remaining townies, scum can still at best tie by switching to vote you.
- Location
- US
- Pronouns
- He/Him
A tie wastes our daykill and effectively gives scum two kills in a row. That isn't something town should accept.
InterstellarHobo
Cosmic Vagrant
- Location
- No Fixed Planetary System
A tie that requires both scum to vote extremely obviously, on the other hand, is acceptable.
- Location
- US
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Like, your argument boils down to "at worst we trade voting my scum for cancelling today's vote". Which is only a good trade if you're scum.
Not really. Losing a daykill isn't okay, and the supposed "extremely obvious" vote would just be voting each other. Exactly what you would expect townies leading two wagons to do. This is not a good plan.
InterstellarHobo
Cosmic Vagrant
- Location
- No Fixed Planetary System
I think you misunderstood this argument entirely. The reason I consider this the second wagon is because the wagon on Shalmoa can, in the worst case, reach parity, and only by scum being extremely obvious.
- Location
- Florida
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Only if both of them vote there and there is a 2-2 split between a Meso wagon and a Yun wagon. Since I'm at the point where I'm pretty obviously not voting Shalmoa today and so it would require the Meso/Yun groups to also near deliberately tie as well.
- Location
- US
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Again, a tie benefits scum, whether it is between two scum or scum and townies.
Like let's pretend you're town and I am scum with Yun. You divide town down the middle. Then logically I would vote Yun, Yun votes me, no tie. Coincidentally exactly what self-preservation would drive townies to do.
There is no way scum could make the Shalmoa wagon a tie, unless you know of two scum besides Yun to jump in on it.
InterstellarHobo
Cosmic Vagrant
- Location
- No Fixed Planetary System
Mmm I'm going to finish putting together my proper 'why I find Meso suspicious' post then get back to this.
- Location
- US
- Pronouns
- He/Him
There are 8 players left, right? Shadell, myself, you, IH, Yun, Pyrros, Shalmoa, and Cyri. A 3 way tie is impossible.
It looks like you already tried that.
- Location
- Florida
- Pronouns
- He/Him
That assumes everyone votes. I feel reasonably confident that Pyrros won't vote today and it only needs one mistaken transitory vote to become theoretically possible, if not likely.
- Location
- US
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Yeah, I did assume everyone would at least place a vote.
InterstellarHobo
Cosmic Vagrant
- Location
- No Fixed Planetary System
So far, I've been trying to get you to commit to an explanation for past behaviour. I have explained what I find inconsistant, and temporarily taken your explanations at face value. This is me pointing out why I think your explanations are nonsense.
This post is, without context, somewhat wolfy as it's basically "I find Yun scummy but not enough to vote for today." With no context that would be a shoddy reason to vote for Meso, but when you see a post like this you expect follow up, since otherwise it reads like easy distancing.
Night events should have made Yun seem more scummy. D3 rolls around. Things read like Meso has forgotten they ever scumread Yun.
First, Meso explicitly states not having any idea who scum is. Not even an 'I'm still kind of suspicious of Yun.'
There is a complete lack of pressure, which I'll concede could be the explanation Meso gave: FIND LINK
When pressed on what they think of Yun, their answers do not line up with 'I find Yun scummy', nor with 'I found Yun scummy a Day ago but am now doubting myself'. They line up far better with trying to excuse Yun's behaviour. I'd expect either consistency with the prior scumread, or some mention of how he was now doubting it- but there's no indication the given post-facto justification actually impacted these posts.
The D3 posts don't read like sudden uncertainty impacted them at all. The post from D2 in to the D3 posts is not sufficiently explained by 'always found Yun weird.' Neither of Meso's explanations plausibly line up with past events.
The above is the bulk of my scumread, made significantly stronger by how it feels like Meso has been trying to avoid giving a straight answer. I have, I think, been pretty explicit about what I'm looking for.
- Location
- Earth
@InterstellarHobo: Can you go into detail as to specifically why having a second wagon on D3 here is beneficial to town in this game where ties result in a no lynch?
InterstellarHobo
Cosmic Vagrant
- Location
- No Fixed Planetary System
Finally, on the tactics behind this push:
There are only two plausible wagons. Can argue this again if needed.
Avoiding a tie with only two plausible wagons is really not that onerous.
In the event that I'm wrong about the scum team, I'm more likely to be wrong about Yun than about Meso.
I may well be dead come tomorrow, in which case I want this argument laid out in full today.
Finally... I had the time and energy for it now.
There are only two plausible wagons. Can argue this again if needed.
Avoiding a tie with only two plausible wagons is really not that onerous.
In the event that I'm wrong about the scum team, I'm more likely to be wrong about Yun than about Meso.
I may well be dead come tomorrow, in which case I want this argument laid out in full today.
Finally... I had the time and energy for it now.
InterstellarHobo
Cosmic Vagrant
- Location
- No Fixed Planetary System
I need to go shopping, I did not expect to take three hours to type up two not that large posts. This is why my thesis still isn't written :<
I don't think there's anything urgent left- if you've got more questions for me I'll get to them in ~30 mins
I don't think there's anything urgent left- if you've got more questions for me I'll get to them in ~30 mins
Alright as previously mentioned my EoD post.
First off I'll start with my reads
Cyricubed: Scum
meso: Town, because among other reasons the nk makes little sense per #740.
Shalmoa: Town, yea I lied about considering him scum.
InterstellarHobo: Town,because among other reasons the nk makes little sense per #740.
Pawn Lelouch: Scum
Shadell: Town, consistent positions, and changes have had reasons.
PyrrosWarrior: Town, there is little reason for scum to give such an extensive read analysis at this point in time. Essentially it is an unneeded risk compared to letting town continue toward lynching meso, and being in a scum pair with meso makes Pyrros look bad.
The pinging of QT, and talking about QT bussing his teammate D1 seems like it was Cyri preparing for the possibility of needing to do so to avoid a lynch alongside a second possibility I'll mention later on.
-Given Cyri stated he'd prefer going after a scum read over QT in #572 D2 with QT being solid neutral, and despite QT not really doing all that much besides vote for rosen Cyri had a semi-town read on QT in #707. So seeing as planning to be active alongside pinging your teammate is totally something a scum player would do if they're worried their partner will follow the trend of being inactive, and might need to plan ahead for throwing him under the bus to avoid a lynch, which fits Cyri bringing it up across two days.
Also the change from solid neutral to semi-town for the QT read by Cyri has little reason behind it from what I can tell.
Perhaps town can come up with an explanation for themselves after I'm gone, but I'm not seeing one, and beyond even the possibility of bussing is the fear of your teammate being flipped via a mod kill.
Both QT, and Cyri had motivation for going after rosen like they did as scum.
-The motivation for jumping onto the rosen wagon was that he did propose taking out QT in #562. Given a Yun flip town scenario D2 forces them to either leave rosen alive to risk him following through on 562, or have town dig through his posts to find that particular point, which compared to having someone i.e myself who a decent chunk of the town want to lynch is a good exchange as if things work out town will be in Mylo.
The fact that Pawn Lelouch came up with a reason to believe Shalmoa was scum, and promptly found another not to pursue his read is suspect directly. Because he basically set things up to get at his scum read through going after meso, and that is honestly suspect from the pov of someone who knows town is going into Mylo D4, which is made worse as he has not even gone after any of the three player he reads as scum via a vote.
This is contributing to player apathy, and isn't something a town player should be doing imo. This can technically be extended to the replacement for Scia PyrrosWarrior, but PL has been considerably more active.
Regarding whether, or not to just do it... if I'm wrong there are only a couple of scenarios where scum will try to flip Cyri/PL, which means there is little obvious reason to not do it if you find my case persuasive. Meanwhile player fatigue is a serious concern her, and a possible argument for Cyri asking all the questions of players is to gather information to find out a good selection for the n4 kill.
The tldr is my advice for day four is as follows is that seeing as waiting a day is only useful if you're uncertain about who is scum,
[X] Vote Cyricubed
Just Do It.
AN: I'll likely be gone for the remainder of the day. So good luck town.
The Case for a Cyricubed/QTesseract Pawn Lelocuh Pair
First off I'll start with my reads
Cyricubed: Scum
meso: Town, because among other reasons the nk makes little sense per #740.
Shalmoa: Town, yea I lied about considering him scum.
InterstellarHobo: Town,because among other reasons the nk makes little sense per #740.
Pawn Lelouch: Scum
Shadell: Town, consistent positions, and changes have had reasons.
PyrrosWarrior: Town, there is little reason for scum to give such an extensive read analysis at this point in time. Essentially it is an unneeded risk compared to letting town continue toward lynching meso, and being in a scum pair with meso makes Pyrros look bad.
A Long Delayed Overview of the Cyri, and QT PL Pair
The pinging of QT, and talking about QT bussing his teammate D1 seems like it was Cyri preparing for the possibility of needing to do so to avoid a lynch alongside a second possibility I'll mention later on.
-Given Cyri stated he'd prefer going after a scum read over QT in #572 D2 with QT being solid neutral, and despite QT not really doing all that much besides vote for rosen Cyri had a semi-town read on QT in #707. So seeing as planning to be active alongside pinging your teammate is totally something a scum player would do if they're worried their partner will follow the trend of being inactive, and might need to plan ahead for throwing him under the bus to avoid a lynch, which fits Cyri bringing it up across two days.
Also the change from solid neutral to semi-town for the QT read by Cyri has little reason behind it from what I can tell.
So pointing out the possibility of QT being scum when he is scum in a manner that leads town off on a wild goose chase makes sense if you need to prepare for the possibility of a mod kill.
Both QT, and Cyri had motivation for going after rosen like they did as scum.
-The motivation for jumping onto the rosen wagon was that he did propose taking out QT in #562. Given a Yun flip town scenario D2 forces them to either leave rosen alive to risk him following through on 562, or have town dig through his posts to find that particular point, which compared to having someone i.e myself who a decent chunk of the town want to lynch is a good exchange as if things work out town will be in Mylo.
The fact that Pawn Lelouch came up with a reason to believe Shalmoa was scum, and promptly found another not to pursue his read is suspect directly. Because he basically set things up to get at his scum read through going after meso, and that is honestly suspect from the pov of someone who knows town is going into Mylo D4, which is made worse as he has not even gone after any of the three player he reads as scum via a vote.
This is contributing to player apathy, and isn't something a town player should be doing imo. This can technically be extended to the replacement for Scia PyrrosWarrior, but PL has been considerably more active.
Regarding whether, or not to just do it... if I'm wrong there are only a couple of scenarios where scum will try to flip Cyri/PL, which means there is little obvious reason to not do it if you find my case persuasive. Meanwhile player fatigue is a serious concern her, and a possible argument for Cyri asking all the questions of players is to gather information to find out a good selection for the n4 kill.
The tldr is my advice for day four is as follows is that seeing as waiting a day is only useful if you're uncertain about who is scum,
[X] Vote Cyricubed
Just Do It.
AN: I'll likely be gone for the remainder of the day. So good luck town.
- Location
- US
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Still makes no sense. The entire case IH has tried to frame here is based on the idea I am not aggressive enough regarding Yun, implying I am team mates with them. If Yun isn't scum, this whole argument fails, so being more sure of my being scum than Yun doesn't work.
My vote is staying on Yun, but I know where I will be looking tomorrow.
Day Three Ends
- Location
- The Great Beyond
- Pronouns
- He/She/They
Day three ends
The debate drags and the day feels long, in fact several mimics swear the sun crawls backwards through the sky more than once as the hours drag on, but ultimately there's a great deal of certainty in the bearing of many of those present as they put forward their proposed killer.
"Tick tock. Bob? The trouser mimic? Are you sure? Oh, tick tock whatever, the rules are the rules..."
@Yun was Bob the Trouser Mimic and has been [Exiled to the Dungeon].
Having had it pointed out, the crowd suddenly feels quite embarrassed for suspecting a pair of pants could be behind the murders, but it's far too late to change their decisions.
Night three has begun. Night three ends in 48 hours give or take, at
The debate drags and the day feels long, in fact several mimics swear the sun crawls backwards through the sky more than once as the hours drag on, but ultimately there's a great deal of certainty in the bearing of many of those present as they put forward their proposed killer.
"Tick tock. Bob? The trouser mimic? Are you sure? Oh, tick tock whatever, the rules are the rules..."
@Yun was Bob the Trouser Mimic and has been [Exiled to the Dungeon].
Having had it pointed out, the crowd suddenly feels quite embarrassed for suspecting a pair of pants could be behind the murders, but it's far too late to change their decisions.
Night three has begun. Night three ends in 48 hours give or take, at
Day Four Start
- Location
- The Great Beyond
- Pronouns
- He/She/They
Day Four Start
The crowd gathers yet more diminished, with another murder and one fewer to discuss matters. With no killers yet caught, the mood is grim but determined.
@Shalmoa, Cynthia the Mimic Mimic, has been [Murdered in the Night]
With so few left, those remaining are haunted by the grim certainty that they are certainly doomed if they kill one of their own.
Day four has begun. Day four ends in 72 hours at
The crowd gathers yet more diminished, with another murder and one fewer to discuss matters. With no killers yet caught, the mood is grim but determined.
@Shalmoa, Cynthia the Mimic Mimic, has been [Murdered in the Night]
With so few left, those remaining are haunted by the grim certainty that they are certainly doomed if they kill one of their own.
Day four has begun. Day four ends in 72 hours at
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- Pronouns
- She/Her
Well, fuck.
I have some thoughts about EoD, but before we get into that, I'd like to ask something.
Are anyone's prior reads intact with Yun (and Shalmoa) flipping town?
I have some thoughts about EoD, but before we get into that, I'd like to ask something.
Are anyone's prior reads intact with Yun (and Shalmoa) flipping town?
- Pronouns
- She/Her
Oh, also:
[x] Vote No Kill
[x] Vote No Kill
- Location
- Florida
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Yes and no. Because I was fine with any of Meso, Pyrros, and Yun as options since all three were scummy, but at this point we're down to the wire enough that I'm going to just reeval from the top with the knowledge that both of the dead are town. So they could work but I don't trust it.
Shalmoa was probably just killed due to being the closest to consensus town so there's not actually info there, unfortunately.
My big thing though is that I feel a fair bit better on IH with how he handled EOD, it felt primarily like acknowledging the idea of dead air, dead villager, and trying to deal with it. Where honestly, that was right and comes off to me as more a case of understanding that something felt off + the concept rather than TMI from knowing Yun was town.
- Location
- I think somewhere. I might be nowhere though
I do want to apologize for not being heavily involved in the last Day, and for sleeping through the EoD.
Seeing as I rated Yun as "NAI and being scum's easy Town lynch or a scum whose only tactic is to redirect" and Shalmoa as "Town if I were forced to choose as Pawn asked," yes. My reads (though they're more like a stream of consciousness with how they're formatted) are technically still intact from the flips. They'll obviously still need to be evaluated as we go through though.