Grandfather Clock and the Town of Mimics (Mafia)

@Shadell Give me thoughts on QT and the kill on Zae.

@Scia While your re-reading yun/Meso can you also give me your thoughts on IH/Ori slot?



I would be inclined to believe this too however from my recollection Yun has been in a good amount of games at this point.
For some reason I was thinking this was their second or third game. If not, that makes their play a lot more suspect.

In fact, I think I was told that last game and forgot. In that case it is really hard to see a townie explanation for their play.

[X] Vote Yun
 
For some reason I was thinking this was their second or third game. If not, that makes their play a lot more suspect.

In fact, I think I was told that last game and forgot. In that case it is really hard to see a townie explanation for their play.

[X] Vote Yun

What aspects of their play are you personally finding suspect?
 
People need to talk and converse. Don't let day keep whittling by soundlessly.
 
Zaealix is a weird choice. I'd think you'd want to leave him till later, given that he was a likely misvote today. Maybe they think I'll make a better target for town today, but it still seems weird that you wouldn't take somebody without a strong scum case built against them.
The reason I think Zaealix was a likely target was that they were a near vote day 1 and still seemed to have a fair amount of suspicion day 2. If I were in the shoes of our scum, I think I'd have let them go and targeted somebody who was being townread more consistently.
I think that the fact that Zaealix didn't vote at EoD yesterday severely restricts the scum teams he actually could be on. To me the major candidates would seem to be: Zaealix/-Rosen, Zaealix/Shadell, and entirely because of my own tendency towards trying to be way too clever for my own good (which is in my role PM's flavor text even) Zaealix/Shalmoa. I don't think any of these teams are very likely at this exact moment, and regarding the last one, trying to bus your scum mate with half of vet town scumreading you for your interactions with them is just a little bit on the crazy side. I wouldn't entirely put it past scum!me but I'd also be shaking in my boots at this point if that were the case.
So, I'm probably biased here, since it's my own counter-case, but I'm not really seeing that same level of case against Zaealix, especially with -Rosen flipped. That said, I do think Zaealix was a surprisingly on point pick by scum, because of how few scum reads it's likely to eliminate. That said, I'm inclined to lean Scia's analysis a little bit scummier than meso's here. I'm not sure if I town-lean meso's analysis or not though. However, if I think back to D1's NK analysis, then I find myself a bit more concerned with meso jumping at -Rosen. I have meso/Scia marked down as an oddity in my notes, but with how Yun's currently acting I find it difficult to believe they're on a scum team together.

I'm still hoping @InterstellarHobo can get me his NK thoughts before I go into my own NK analysis, and I'm busy IRL today so don't expect too much posting from me for the next roughly 8 hours, but I think there's interesting thoughts to be had here.
 
@Shadell Give me thoughts on QT and the kill on Zae.

Discussion on scum targeting the most valuable/active/vet/leaderly/etc town players D1 and some into D2. Scum moved against this by hitting one of the newest players that would also have been good cover for scum. This tells me that scum's diversifying their hits to avoid being called out obviously for hitting the clearest targets before they can't hide a scum-member among the clearer targets anymore.

Breaking that down, that pings me as you, Shalmoa or QT, but that's hardly conclusive evidence, and also overlaps a lot with my town reads, which isn't that out there as a goal.

For QT, they're definitely being QTish, which means a bit more inactive than I'd like, but a valuable contributor when they do participate. The only time I can remember QT being super active in discussion is Crows when they were outed as a magpie (IIRC) and trying to sell ravens on an alliance. So, hard to read, but generally feels towny.

Again, I'd like to be pushing people more atm.


@InterstellarHobo @QTesseract what are your thoughts on Yun?
 
Breaking that down, that pings me as you, Shalmoa or QT, but that's hardly conclusive evidence, and also overlaps a lot with my town reads, which isn't that out there as a goal.
FWIW, I get almost the same breakdown: meso, Cyricubed, or QT. QT's quietness makes it extremely hard to even begin to eliminate him as a common factor. Unfortunately, all of these people make me paranoid and that's even despite the part where I'm pretty sure Cyri is town too. The people I'm confident saying Cyricubed isn't partnered with are Yun and you, and I'm scumreading Yun pretty hard at the moment. I also expect that it's more likely than not that Cyricubed and meso aren't partners.
 
Urg...

That's 8 hours without a post. It's painful because I'm looking at QT not being a presence again it makes me want to vote them because of that, but I'm semi-town reading QT still...but at the same time....AUGGGGHHH. This is frustrating.
 
Plus I haven't seen a response from Yun so I can't interact further there...and...Meeeerrr
 
I hate to waste a vote on a shot in the dark, but I don't think we should tolerate people just not playing the game. If they are town it is relatively harmless, but if they are scum it essential lets them win without actually playing the game.
 
You mean...it is relatively harmless other than being a Mislynch into MyLo if they are town.
Sorry, I was unclear. I meant lurking is reasonably harmless for a townie to do, but it is really bad if we let scum get away with it.

Eliminating the lurker is just the opposite, bad if they are town, very good if they are scum.
 
If we're going to pick a lurker, my personal preference would be QT over IH at the moment. I have more "probably not the scum pair" interactions listed down for IH than QT, though I don't have specific links to anything. I can try to find why I don't believe IH/Shadell or IH/Scia is our scum team, but I at least have something marked down to that extent. I have nothing at all for QT other than Yun/QT being distressing and QT/IH being a plausible team on its own in my eyes. I'd prefer to vote Yun over either of them though.

Regarding Scia: Slight scum lean in general, but at least she's participating at the moment. I dislike QT's quietness a lot more, personally.
 
[X] Vote QTesseract

@QTesseract sorry, but you just aren't here enough to get a solid read on you and that isn't really fair to everybody else who are putting themselves out there,

This isn't a pressure vote, I think the time for those has passed and then some.
 
Life has been not great lately. Doing things is hard.

Thanks meso.

@InterstellarHobo: Could you provide your current thoughts for the NKs on N1 and N2?
So, I'm probably biased here, since it's my own counter-case, but I'm not really seeing that same level of case against Zaealix, especially with -Rosen flipped. That said, I do think Zaealix was a surprisingly on point pick by scum, because of how few scum reads it's likely to eliminate. That said, I'm inclined to lean Scia's analysis a little bit scummier than meso's here. I'm not sure if I town-lean meso's analysis or not though. However, if I think back to D1's NK analysis, then I find myself a bit more concerned with meso jumping at -Rosen. I have meso/Scia marked down as an oddity in my notes, but with how Yun's currently acting I find it difficult to believe they're on a scum team together.

I'm still hoping @InterstellarHobo can get me his NK thoughts before I go into my own NK analysis, and I'm busy IRL today so don't expect too much posting from me for the next roughly 8 hours, but I think there's interesting thoughts to be had here.
So, I'm probably biased here, since it's my own counter-case, but I'm not really seeing that same level of case against Zaealix, especially with -Rosen flipped. That said, I do think Zaealix was a surprisingly on point pick by scum, because of how few scum reads it's likely to eliminate. That said, I'm inclined to lean Scia's analysis a little bit scummier than meso's here. I'm not sure if I town-lean meso's analysis or not though. However, if I think back to D1's NK analysis, then I find myself a bit more concerned with meso jumping at -Rosen. I have meso/Scia marked down as an oddity in my notes, but with how Yun's currently acting I find it difficult to believe they're on a scum team together.

I'm still hoping @InterstellarHobo can get me his NK thoughts before I go into my own NK analysis, and I'm busy IRL today so don't expect too much posting from me for the next roughly 8 hours, but I think there's interesting thoughts to be had here.

I don't really have a whole lot to say on this, sorry. I don't think in depth research for NK analysis would be a good use of my attention, particularly cause I'm not really sure how one does useful NK analysis.

For N1, I'd need to read a good chunk of material that I didn't experience contemporaneously. I don't think it's worth going back and trying to puzzle out the Nictis NK when the most plausible explanation is just going to be 'Nictis play gud.'

For N2, I am more or less familiar with the circumstances, but can only speculate about the why, since it doesn't seem like a great choice.
My first guess is scum did an oops, and assumed that Zaea was towncleared to a significant degree because -Rosen supported them D1.
Second guess none of the vets were targeted so that a scum vet isn't left suspiciously alive.
Thirdly it could be because of Zaea's stated suspicion on Cyric or Scia, killing Zaea before they could reexamine for a proper case.
 
What aspects of their play are you personally finding suspect?
Sorry, missed this.

What's bothered me is the hyperfocus on you (that sort of defensive tunneling on the first person to accuse you might make sense for a newby, but not an experienced player.)

And the arguments being made (rearranging posts, misrepresenting your no scum read on Rosen as an active argument against voting them) look like someone trying to find excuses to justify their intention to kill you rather than scum hunting, which again is a believable error for a new player but has few no malicious interpretations from a vet.
I've seen QT voted over inactivity a bunch, never has it ended well for town.
Well, yeah. Most of the time a random player will be town.

The problem is when they aren't. Say for example you and QT were scum. You'd probably get caught sooner or later, but when would QT get caught if we just accept not posting as a strategy?

Inactivity is bad for town because it gives scum a perfect cover, means town is effectively down one person most days, and results in wasted daykills. But there is very little else to do about it.
 
The problem is when they aren't. Say for example you and QT were scum. You'd probably get caught sooner or later, but when would QT get caught if we just accept not posting as a strategy?

We have 2 chances to vote a player left. Inactivity is absolutely bad for town, but inactive players, particularly in this year, often have pretty good reasons to be such. Additionally, if we can say that, e.g., Yun, is 75% likely to be scum, why on earth would town benefit from passing up on the actual scumread to vote on policy a player that's known to be fairly inactive as town?

We have two misses left. Yes, we benefit from punishing inactivity, but every vote is rivalrous with every other vote, and voting the scummiest player is always going to be of greater benefit, particularly in a game with no protectives to stretch things out like this one, than voting an inactive player. What matters isn't whether town benefits from this action, but whether it benefits from this action more than it benefits from the alternatives.


Anyway, in the interest of keeping the conversation on the game, rather than the principles of the game, why QT over Scia? 2 posts is surely not a dealbreaker. Why do you think QT is more likely to be scum than Scia?
 
Alright so first off I've been busy with some irl stuff whose details are only relevant in so far as they're far more important than a game of mafia, and what time I've spent best getting some distance to reflect upon the game so far in the hopes of getting some perspective on it, which was for the best as I'm pretty sure I let the arguments get to my head. In regards to the lack of debate I'd speculate it has to do with the lack of success on the part of town, and being difficult to power through the negative feedback for no discernible benefit, which results in a general sense of frustration during the day.

@Cyricubed First off if my read on you was correct you deserve the win at this point, and regardless I apologize for letting our argument get to my head. I'll see about getting responses in a bit, but there is a question that pertains to the current dialogue I'd like to raise.

(This is addressed to everyone btw)

What exactly is the explanation for QT being town? Because while reflecting upon the game so far I've failed to come up with one entirely, and from what I can tell the difference compared to other setups is the fact that we have no powers meaning the town can only win through participating in daytime discussion, which QT has been doing little more than the bare minimum needed to avoid the post everyday rule.

Meanwhile the explanation for QT's behavior is much clearer if the player in question is scum.

1) Utilize a tendency to run low activity as town in circumstances where it can make sense i.e games where town has power to give town as little as feasible to work with for a read.
2) Participate in EoD to vote as that can lead to results that promote the first point.
3) Do no respond to calls to participate as that gives town information, and once your in Mylo... well whoever the scum partner is has to be located as a sole individual.
4) Let town argue among themselves.

Fundamentally while the issue of flipping another town exists with QT it largely comes down to if town is comfortable letting someone into a Mylo scenario where if scum we basically have to locate their scum partner, and do so while a large chunk of us are doing it based upon scum pair reads.

tldr In a game with town night powers lynching QT would be an inactivity lynch, but in vanilla mafia it is more an issue of QT's refusal to help town work toward the victory condition of town via the tools available to us. This is despite multiple players asking QT to do so across all three days.

Anyways if you have any questions feel free to ask them, and I'll see about responding to things direct my way.
 
Alright so first off I've been busy with some irl stuff whose details are only relevant in so far as they're far more important than a game of mafia, and what time I've spent best getting some distance to reflect upon the game so far in the hopes of getting some perspective on it, which was for the best as I'm pretty sure I let the arguments get to my head. In regards to the lack of debate I'd speculate it has to do with the lack of success on the part of town, and being difficult to power through the negative feedback for no discernible benefit, which results in a general sense of frustration during the day.

@Cyricubed First off if my read on you was correct you deserve the win at this point, and regardless I apologize for letting our argument get to my head. I'll see about getting responses in a bit, but there is a question that pertains to the current dialogue I'd like to raise.

(This is addressed to everyone btw)

What exactly is the explanation for QT being town? Because while reflecting upon the game so far I've failed to come up with one entirely, and from what I can tell the difference compared to other setups is the fact that we have no powers meaning the town can only win through participating in daytime discussion, which QT has been doing little more than the bare minimum needed to avoid the post everyday rule.

Meanwhile the explanation for QT's behavior is much clearer if the player in question is scum.

1) Utilize a tendency to run low activity as town in circumstances where it can make sense i.e games where town has power to give town as little as feasible to work with for a read.
2) Participate in EoD to vote as that can lead to results that promote the first point.
3) Do no respond to calls to participate as that gives town information, and once your in Mylo... well whoever the scum partner is has to be located as a sole individual.
4) Let town argue among themselves.

Fundamentally while the issue of flipping another town exists with QT it largely comes down to if town is comfortable letting someone into a Mylo scenario where if scum we basically have to locate their scum partner, and do so while a large chunk of us are doing it based upon scum pair reads.

tldr In a game with town night powers lynching QT would be an inactivity lynch, but in vanilla mafia it is more an issue of QT's refusal to help town work toward the victory condition of town via the tools available to us. This is despite multiple players asking QT to do so across all three days.

Anyways if you have any questions feel free to ask them, and I'll see about responding to things direct my way.
A possible explanation for QT is town (only looking at activity) is that QT does not have time/attention for the game. This is not particularly difficult to think up.

Obviously this is not good for town, which is why policy lynches exist, but the concept of an inactive towny is hardly mystifying.
 
Before bed, reads in brief per Shadell's sort of request.

Yun: Scumreading. Previous read of 'highly pressured' still holds. Latest post reads far more like an attempt to kill QT than a legitimate argument.
I need to reread in detail, but I think that will only change strength of scumread.

QT: Scumreading. D1 vote was very sheepy, My attempts to press for details got ignored. Lack of activity is a contributing factor.

Mesonoxian: Considerable scum read.
I'm reconsidering whether a Yun/Rosen world makes sense. I'll need to reread the thread, but I going to be really busy for the next little bit.
I've been rereading the thread and my gut feeling on Yun has gotten less and less sanguine. The major thing stopping it from sliding over into a scum read is how hard Rosen is pushing them, but that could be distancing doing its job. I still feel Rosen is the much stronger case.

-ROSEN FLIPS TOWN

Well damn.

Sorry guys. Rosen seemed very scummy to me.

Zaealix is a weird choice. I'd think you'd want to leave him till later, given that he was a likely misvote today. Maybe they think I'll make a better target for town today, but it still seems weird that you wouldn't take somebody without a strong scum case built against them.

So these are our suspects. 1 in 4 of the remaining players are scum.
  1. Cyricubed
  2. mesonoxian
  3. Yun
  4. Shalmoa
  5. InterstellarHobo
  6. QTesseract
  7. Shadell
  8. Scia
Unfortunately I am really struggling to come up with any clear notion as to which ones. I'm going to try rereading the thread again to see if anything pops out to me.

Sure, but I don't have a whole lot of insight to add.

I think @Scia s suspicion of Yun in #212 seems a bit of a stretch, but given that it was an answer to a request for a scum read on day 1 it doesn't seem inappropriate or out of the ordinary.

#507 is pushing a scum read on Rosen which we know was incorrect, but the actual points were pretty good. The way Happerry got knocked down after voting for Rosen was strange and I noticed it, too.

The Cyricubed/Yun interaction has been weird but doesn't really feel like a scum team to me, and Scia's take on seemed to be that it was specific in conjunction with Rosen's play, which we now know couldn't have been coordinated with scum.
YesterDay claimed Yun suspicious, with only saving grace being -Rosen pushing super hard. Day starts with the suspicion on Yun having vanished, and no pushes made. Later vote is very plausibly distancing, particularly with switching off to dink QT.
Need to reread early material.

I think team is either Meso/Yun (I hope not cause -Rosen will be insufferable) or QT/someone.
 
Alright so first off I've been busy with some irl stuff whose details are only relevant in so far as they're far more important than a game of mafia, and what time I've spent best getting some distance to reflect upon the game so far in the hopes of getting some perspective on it, which was for the best as I'm pretty sure I let the arguments get to my head. In regards to the lack of debate I'd speculate it has to do with the lack of success on the part of town, and being difficult to power through the negative feedback for no discernible benefit, which results in a general sense of frustration during the day.

Why QT and not Scia? Scia has exactly 2 more posts than QT.

Not liking the tunneling here from both Meso and Yun.
 
Why exactly is rearranging your post a problem? I mean unless there was an effort to alter the meaning of it, addressing points in an order other than they were provided doesn't seem important.
There are loads of reasons, and if you're intrested I might expand upon this at game end. Because it is something I feel rather strongly about it being unacceptable, and moving on to the details,

1) Because it makes it fairly easy to completely ruin a point the other player is making unintentionally, and trivial to do so intentionally depending upon the exact inter-connectivity of your points.
2) At the same time it allows the person doing it to boost their own point through say appealing to something a dead town player said at the start of a reply.
3) Because players make mistakes, and trying to discern whether, or not someone legit meant to leave something out is difficult using a text medium.
4) Because even if you do not see any connection between two paragraph the person who made them might see some, and thus it is polite to reply to their argument as is, or if you're trying to avoid replying to something twice just mention it'll be addressed later on.
5) Because taking into consideration the possible reasons someone might decide to do so it serves as a method to check for editing that scales well, and one that doubles as a way to check for another player honestly engaging my points as I make them compared to say making an appeal to the other players.

There are arguments I might make for Cyri in this instance, but I see little point debating them at this point.
A possible explanation for QT is town (only looking at activity) is that QT does not have time/attention for the game. This is not particularly difficult to think up.

Obviously this is not good for town, which is why policy lynches exist, but the concept of an inactive towny is hardly mystifying.
So you sign up for a game of vanilla mafia, are active in other parts of the forum, and basically just never respond to queries your way except doing so to some of them near EoD? Like I suppose that is an explanation , but it does not exactly align with trying to win the game as town.
Why QT and not Scia? Scia has exactly 2 more posts than QT.

Not liking the tunneling here from both Meso and Yun.
Because I need to go back, and reread through the posts Scia has made in question to check if they'd match a Scia/QT low participation scum pair. This isn't the only possibility as QT/more active player is a possibility.
 
Because I need to go back, and reread through the posts Scia has made in question to check if they'd match a Scia/QT low participation scum pair. This isn't the only possibility as QT/more active player is a possibility.

Again, you jump to QT/Scia or QT/other and leave out Scia/other for... no reason.

Why is inactivity only suspicious if it lines up with QT and not when it's just Scia?
 
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