Exploding Canon (Worm SI)

Wow.

I'm really not too happy with Bakuda getting quarantined though. Let's see how it goes. Still find it odd that she doesn't even mentioned that she's immune to the Simurgh. Heard no singing. Then again who would believe her at this point... Though it seems to be canon in this story at least, that some capes are immune at least according to Armsmaster's interlude.

It'd be interesting laying her setting knowledge on Cauldron as well. They kinda ignored her knowing about Cauldron which was a bit odd to me. Not like the Simurgh would implant info into people anyways. She isn't actually telepathic.

I'll be watching.
She's only quarantined 'til she invents a bomb that blows her into looking completely different in another city.
 
. In canon, it was so badly done that my only explanation for the observed events was that Contessa's shard was actually meant to sabotage the user.

I'm fairly certain that was the case in canon. Eden pretty explicitely put limitations, just before she died, on Contessa's PTV in order to prevent her from killing entities, the only reason she managed to kill Eden after the limitations were in place was due to Doctor Mother being there + Contessa was already on a path to killing Eden. If either of those things failed, eden would be alive and Contessa would be dead.

In canon there's a whole bunch of scenes where contessa is trying to find a path to kill scion, but keeps getting "No" from PTV, the only time she even manages to make a Path work is by deliberately making it about something other than Scion. In short, my understanding from it, was that Contessa was never on a Path to killing Scion, because Path to victory does not allow paths to killing Scion.

The entire Path o Cauldron, all the experiments, the parahuman army, the spreading of case 53s on earth Bet, all of that was for a path that had exactly zero chance of killing Scion. None of what Cauldron did in the story mattered in the end, nor could it have mattered.

To be honest i feel kinda bad for them, but i'd probably do the same in their place, because it was the only thing they could have done, they were doomed to failure from the moment the restrictions were placed on PTV.
 
To be honest i feel kinda bad for them, but i'd probably do the same in their place, because it was the only thing they could have done, they were doomed to failure from the moment the restrictions were placed on PTV.

Well, nothing stopped them from using their regular ol' human brain at any point. Doctor Mother wasn't even a parahuman. She just said "Oh, hey, you have a shard that lets you turn off your brain? That's cool, I wonder if I can turn off mine too!"

Hiring the requisite (unpowered) five-year-old child would have done wonders for their plans.
 
Wow, that came out of nowhere... and awww man, Eidolon got to be the hero?!

*starts skimming the comments*

Oh, arc's not over yet, so It might still be active, hrm.

I vaguely want to call bull on Eidolon for being able to pull that based on vague tech-babble by Bakuda, but hey it's Eidolon, if anyone can pull sometime like that, I guess it should be him; since his original version was female and cape name Mary Sue... lolz.

I'm a bit surprised at how they didn't react to Bakuda sprouting Cauldron Cauldron Cauldron, but thinking on it a little more, I guess you just don't posses enough of a threat for them to care? Alexandria already shows she can shut you up easily, so yeah...
 
... okay, presumably, this resonance attack works on all Endbringers because they are all made of the same uniform crystalline material and their bodies are just decoration. Shame it doesn't work on the core (not much does), but Eidolon just gained the ability to expose the core of any Endbringer. That's pretty huge, because exposing the core is half the difficulty of beating them.

Unfortunately, this is Worm, so the Endbringers will escalate in response to their "weak point" being exposed and the heroes will try to win by punching the core harder because they think it's a weak point instead of invulnerable physics canceling bullshit. Cue Alexandria losing her other leg trying to kick it, because no one has any idea what they are dealing with and their thinkers can't understand it. Also, Alexandria thinks its all a Simurgh plot and blames Bakuda for losing her other leg.

Still, this power seems like the functional opposite of Scion's stilling power, since it amplifies waves instead of stilling them. If Eidolon could use this to counteract stilling, one of Scion's best moves just became useless. Unfortunately, the move can't hurt Scion directly, and Eidolon will probably cast that power aside in favor of a way to punch god harder. Oh well...
 
... okay, presumably, this resonance attack works on all Endbringers because they are all made of the same uniform crystalline material and their bodies are just decoration. Shame it doesn't work on the core (not much does), but Eidolon just gained the ability to expose the core of any Endbringer. That's pretty huge, because exposing the core is half the difficulty of beating them.

Unfortunately, this is Worm, so the Endbringers will escalate in response to their "weak point" being exposed and the heroes will try to win by punching the core harder because they think it's a weak point instead of invulnerable physics canceling bullshit.
Well that... and Eidolon's powers get weaker with use. He only gets like 5-30 uses of a power before it weakens into uselessness. I think it depends on how strong the power is itself and how forcefully he uses it. Also not sure if he can call up the same power again after discarding it, so he has to hold onto this power for as long as he can.
 
Am I the only one thinking that they can't quarantine Bakuda? I mean no one is stupid enough to try and quarantine and tinker right? They just get executed, probably not publicly but they have to do it. You can't stick a tinker in a city and hope that they won't build something to let them escape, that's beyond stupid. That's like a non parahuman shooting them self in the face and expecting it not to do any damage.
 
Am I the only one thinking that they can't quarantine Bakuda? I mean no one is stupid enough to try and quarantine and tinker right? They just get executed, probably not publicly but they have to do it. You can't stick a tinker in a city and hope that they won't build something to let them escape, that's beyond stupid. That's like a non parahuman shooting them self in the face and expecting it not to do any damage.

I guess you could put them in an isolation cell, where they couldn't get any building materials or communicate with the outside world.
Probably a resonably comfortable cell to try to convince them to submit willingly, and an order to kill them if they resist containment.
Take a basic cell, make it a bit larger with more comfortable furnature and put a TV with a library of shows and movies and books behind an armoured glass panel.
 
I call it the clown-shoes conspiracy for that. In canon, it was so badly done that my only explanation for the observed events was that Contessa's shard was actually meant to sabotage the user.

Frankly, I always assumed that PtV was actually rather suboptimal. Think about it, the whole reason behind the Entities' actions was because they didn't have the imagination/foresight to develop and experiment on their shards, and needed hosts. If they had a shard that could perfectly predict the future, why not just use that to run sims on all their other shards?

I've always imagined the PtV to be self-correcting. The early steps are actually just wild guesses, with the shard using its enormous on-the-spot calculations to compensate for any screw-ups. Which might also explain why Contessa has to get so hands-on, the PtV needs to be on-site to compensate for deviations. Plus, it might also explain why the plans were so shit, the PtV was designed by and for the use of Entities, to solve entity-scale problems. An open question as to how well it scales to us organic meatsacks, especially when Eden's last act was to sabotage it.
 
If they had a shard that could perfectly predict the future, why not just use that to run sims on all their other shards?
Cost. Precog is explicitly on the high end of energy costs in canon. After a certain point of expense, it becomes drastically cheaper to field test them than to precog them, even if you're spending years on the field tests.
 
...yeah, okay. I can see where you're coming from there. It's a good explanation. So I'm guessing Cauldron in this fic will be, well, substantially different from canon?

Because DAMN was Cauldron shit in canon. As a concept, 'secret organization trying to build a god-killing parahuman' is workable. As executed, well. I call it the clown-shoes conspiracy for that. In canon, it was so badly done that my only explanation for the observed events was that Contessa's shard was actually meant to sabotage the user.

Half-and-half. To a certain extent, the conspiracy's incompetency is in-character and makes sense. Nobody is perfect, and in particular Cauldron was an utter failure at its main goal -that was canon, that was consistent, that made sense.

On the other hand, I'm going to fill in the stuff we don't explicitly see as best as I can while retaining the "whatwhy" stuff in a form that obviates the problems it creates in canon.

Least spoilery example: In Exploding Canon, yes Contessa occasionally personally handles an enforcer event, if for some reason that's more practical than any other option, is the only option that PtV feeds her as workable at all, or if she has other goals she's trying to fill at the same time that calling in a favor or hiring a mercenary would not work for simultaneously filling. (eg manipulating an unrelated cape in a particular way) No, she does not, as canon ultimately implies, personally handle every single enforcer event. That's ludicrous and undermines, among other things, the idea that Cauldron has successfully maintained its secrecy for 20+ years.

So basically: if it happened "on-screen" in canon, it's probably canon to Exploding Canon, but the implications might not be canon to Exploding Canon. (eg where are all the other Cauldron members in the endgame? If you take canon as we see it and extrapolate, canon seems to intend for Cauldron to be literally like 10 people)


Except Contessa explicitly, repeatedly pulls a Rube Goldberg machine effect off with PtV, including talking to other people to get the results she wants. ("Breadth and depth" being the best example, but not the only example) If Contessa wants to ask PtV "Which mercenary do I hire and what do I say to that mercenary to ensure that Joe Bob Mcsecretlearner will die and not reveal any of Cauldron's secrets?" she can absolutely, 100%-canon-I-don't-care-what-Wildbow-says-I-care-what-he-wrote do that.

Tuned parahumans deviate from the Path

An interesting idea, one I'd argue is better than canon... but definitely not canon. PtV's limitations against Endbringers is explicitly artificial (Which is just awful and I hate it and liked canon much better when I was assuming there was some naturalistic reason why Endbringers were not precoggable) its limitations against Entities are also explicitly artificial (It was working on Eden until Eden hacked the shard), and if anything to do with Entities was going to produce a natural immunity/semi-immunity to PtV, it would be, you know, an entire Entity. People plugged into an individual shard cannot possibly have a natural protection as a result, given actual canon.

Depressingly.

Also, apropos of nothing: there's been Word of God that Path to Victory can't replicate Tinkertech. This suggest that PtV is much, MUCH more limited than what fans assume it is.

Not really. You can just as easily assume that tinkertech is non-replicable because tinkers are cheating with secondary powers, and PtV doesn't provide the relevant cheating. There's no Path that lets Contessa become a firebreathing dragon with super-regeneration, either.

Half the mindfuckery we see is making people control freaks, too. It could just be that Contessa doesn't feel comfortable trusting anything important to a Mercenary who might slip up or hit the wrong target, especially since she's been using her power for a decade or more?

Not how PtV works. The Wormverse is clockwork, so unless something protected against precognition interferes Contessa will always get whatever result she Paths for, no matter what intermediaries she operates through. The primary flaw of PtV seems to be that it's an overly literal genie -frame your questions poorly, and you may get an outcome that fits what you asked for but not what you wanted.

The explanation for Contessa going out personally might be that PtV doesn't necessarily go for the optimum solution. Rather it might go for a solution that fulfills it's goals but generates an unnecessarily amount of conflict in the process. Given the choice between hiring a mercenary which would get the job done quickly and subtly and having Contessa going in personally while causing large amounts of chaos the shard would select the latter because it's designed to instigate conflict and the second option would cause more. Does Contessa actually ask "how do I accomplish X in what I would consider the optimum fashion" or "how do I accomplish X"? If it's the latter then the shard could use that loophole to give out a solution that isn't the necessarily the most efficient one. It's job description is only Path to Victory not Path to Best Victory.

Contessa is shown to be too competent and experienced in using her power in canon for this to really work. Maybe she fell into this trap in the earliest years of Cauldron, but at some point her explicit habit of asking several different variations on her core question would lead into her asking the right question to hit onto non-stupid/conflict-focused plans, and she'd transition over to the competency she's supposed to have according to canon anyway.

There's also the point that it is, in all honesty, unlikely her shard was programmed properly for working with a host. Eden somehow accidentally lost/launched it in the crash, having not gotten around to doing any of the things she'd do for prepping the shard for use by hosts, and the only hacking she seems to do before being sort-of-kind-of-killed is that of blocking PtV from being usable against Entities. The conflict drive is unlikely to have been activated -it'd be really dumb if Entity shards always had conflict protocols active at all times, and more importantly than it being dumb Entities wouldn't function as presented if every piece of them was always running those protocols.

So Contessa probably has a shard that functions almost exactly as it does when being used by an Entity... especially since her shard is from Abbadon originally, and while it's not clear what path of "evolution" Abbadon went down, it's definitely a different path. It might not have conflict protocols inherent to it!

I'm fairly certain that was the case in canon. Eden pretty explicitely put limitations, just before she died, on Contessa's PTV in order to prevent her from killing entities, the only reason she managed to kill Eden after the limitations were in place was due to Doctor Mother being there + Contessa was already on a path to killing Eden. If either of those things failed, eden would be alive and Contessa would be dead.

In canon there's a whole bunch of scenes where contessa is trying to find a path to kill scion, but keeps getting "No" from PTV, the only time she even manages to make a Path work is by deliberately making it about something other than Scion. In short, my understanding from it, was that Contessa was never on a Path to killing Scion, because Path to victory does not allow paths to killing Scion.

The entire Path o Cauldron, all the experiments, the parahuman army, the spreading of case 53s on earth Bet, all of that was for a path that had exactly zero chance of killing Scion. None of what Cauldron did in the story mattered in the end, nor could it have mattered.

To be honest i feel kinda bad for them, but i'd probably do the same in their place, because it was the only thing they could have done, they were doomed to failure from the moment the restrictions were placed on PTV.

It's more accurate to say the Path provided no greater a chance of success than any human-made plan did. It's not that PtV couldn't provide a Path to things with the ability to kill an Entity -it just would lock up if directly asked about Entities (And for some reason Endbringers) and they didn't have enough information to know what the right questions would be to ask to get around that.

Crappy Pokemon metagame metaphor: I'm facing off against Rayquaza and I have PtV. In this scenario, Rayquaza is an Entity, and if I ask PtV "Which move do I use to OHKO Rayquaza" PtV goes "404 error". But if I ask "Which Pokemon using which move would OHKO a Dragon/Flying type with a statline of x/x/x/x/x/x" it'll promptly say "Send out Kyurem-White and use Ice Beam" and there you go, I have my Entity-killer.

Contessa could've used PtV to find a way of killing the Entities, she just couldn't have had PtV explicitly confirm that the path would kill Scion.

I vaguely want to call bull on Eidolon for being able to pull that based on vague tech-babble by Bakuda, but hey it's Eidolon, if anyone can pull sometime like that, I guess it should be him; since his original version was female and cape name Mary Sue... lolz.

I'm just going to say that my read on Eidolon in canon is that a key aspect of his power is knowing what the right question to ask is, for getting the power he wants.

Comparison point: let's say you have a database you want to dig through. It has a tags system, like Sufficient Velocity. It doesn't let you see the tags -it just lets you search for a tag and then spit out everything that has the tag you searched for. If "Resonance Power" isn't tagged with anything you think to search for, you're not going to find "Resonance Power", and you'll have no idea it exists or what tags to look for it with.

Imagine trying to find a specific thread on Sufficient Velocity that you don't already know the tags of and can only look for by searching for tags. (Of which you don't get a list of actually used tags) It'd be a nightmare.

I'm a bit surprised at how they didn't react to Bakuda sprouting Cauldron Cauldron Cauldron, but thinking on it a little more, I guess you just don't posses enough of a threat for them to care? Alexandria already shows she can shut you up easily, so yeah...

A key part of Cauldron's policy of hiding Cauldron's existence is that they make sure as much of the world as possible treats the idea of Cauldron as so ridiculous as to not even be worth refuting explicitly. Just ignoring Bakuda is a great way to convey to people that no, Cauldron doesn't exist, nobody who matters takes it even slightly seriously, and more importantly is in line with their canon policy.

Well that... and Eidolon's powers get weaker with use. He only gets like 5-30 uses of a power before it weakens into uselessness. I think it depends on how strong the power is itself and how forcefully he uses it. Also not sure if he can call up the same power again after discarding it, so he has to hold onto this power for as long as he can.

We don't get an exact count or even a range on the number of uses he gets for a given power. We know that the more "powerful" it is the more likely it is to burn out fast, but canon is honestly very vague on the range, and Eidolon's behavior isn't very helpful in guessing, since he's actually pretty good about changing up his powers when it becomes clear that his current set is either not working or is working only "well enough" when what he needs is a power that works really well in the context.

Am I the only one thinking that they can't quarantine Bakuda? I mean no one is stupid enough to try and quarantine and tinker right? They just get executed, probably not publicly but they have to do it. You can't stick a tinker in a city and hope that they won't build something to let them escape, that's beyond stupid. That's like a non parahuman shooting them self in the face and expecting it not to do any damage.

Simurgh quarantine zones all operate on the principal of killing anyone who tries to escape and making sure they know that's what will happen to dissuade them from actually trying to escape. They're not meant to physically contain people with walls and so on. They're meant to contain them with the threat of death.

Unless you think they should believe themselves unable to kill her if she tries to escape?
 
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No, she does not, as canon ultimately implies, personally handle every single enforcer event. That's ludicrous and undermines, among other things, the idea that Cauldron has successfully maintained its secrecy for 20+ years.

So basically: if it happened "on-screen" in canon, it's probably canon to Exploding Canon, but the implications might not be canon to Exploding Canon. (eg where are all the other Cauldron members in the endgame? If you take canon as we see it and extrapolate, canon seems to intend for Cauldron to be literally like 10 people)

The worst part of this to me is it flatly contradicts earlier canon.

Infestation 11-7 says...

"Enough that there's a whole enterprise here with a private army. There's this bit that very politely notes that breaking the rules will get you hunted down and executed by Subjects, capital S. Clients are warned that these guys are entirely loyal to Cauldron, will not accept bribes. And these Subjects are apparently something different from Deviations."
"Cauldron calls us Subjects. The PRT calls us Case 53s," a voice said from above us. "Regular people call us monsters."

Lookit that! violating your Cauldron Contract gets you murdered by Cauldrons Private Army of Case-53s!

And then that ceases to exist in favor of Contessa.
 
"There's no Path that lets Contessa become a firebreathing dragon with super-regeneration, either."

Step one, get Bonesaw to lobotomize and otherwise tinker with Butcher until memories no longer transfer, alternately clone original Butcher as blank slate.

Step two have blank brained Lung Clone kill Butcher.

Step three kill Lung Clone.

Really not that hard.:p
 
Half-and-half. To a certain extent, the conspiracy's incompetency is in-character and makes sense. Nobody is perfect, and in particular Cauldron was an utter failure at its main goal -that was canon, that was consistent, that made sense.

On the other hand, I'm going to fill in the stuff we don't explicitly see as best as I can while retaining the "whatwhy" stuff in a form that obviates the problems it creates in canon.

Least spoilery example: In Exploding Canon, yes Contessa occasionally personally handles an enforcer event, if for some reason that's more practical than any other option, is the only option that PtV feeds her as workable at all, or if she has other goals she's trying to fill at the same time that calling in a favor or hiring a mercenary would not work for simultaneously filling. (eg manipulating an unrelated cape in a particular way) No, she does not, as canon ultimately implies, personally handle every single enforcer event. That's ludicrous and undermines, among other things, the idea that Cauldron has successfully maintained its secrecy for 20+ years.

So basically: if it happened "on-screen" in canon, it's probably canon to Exploding Canon, but the implications might not be canon to Exploding Canon. (eg where are all the other Cauldron members in the endgame? If you take canon as we see it and extrapolate, canon seems to intend for Cauldron to be literally like 10 people)



Except Contessa explicitly, repeatedly pulls a Rube Goldberg machine effect off with PtV, including talking to other people to get the results she wants. ("Breadth and depth" being the best example, but not the only example) If Contessa wants to ask PtV "Which mercenary do I hire and what do I say to that mercenary to ensure that Joe Bob Mcsecretlearner will die and not reveal any of Cauldron's secrets?" she can absolutely, 100%-canon-I-don't-care-what-Wildbow-says-I-care-what-he-wrote do that.



An interesting idea, one I'd argue is better than canon... but definitely not canon. PtV's limitations against Endbringers is explicitly artificial (Which is just awful and I hate it and liked canon much better when I was assuming there was some naturalistic reason why Endbringers were not precoggable) its limitations against Entities are also explicitly artificial (It was working on Eden until Eden hacked the shard), and if anything to do with Entities was going to produce a natural immunity/semi-immunity to PtV, it would be, you know, an entire Entity. People plugged into an individual shard cannot possibly have a natural protection as a result, given actual canon.

Depressingly.



Not really. You can just as easily assume that tinkertech is non-replicable because tinkers are cheating with secondary powers, and PtV doesn't provide the relevant cheating. There's no Path that lets Contessa become a firebreathing dragon with super-regeneration, either.



Not how PtV works. The Wormverse is clockwork, so unless something protected against precognition interferes Contessa will always get whatever result she Paths for, no matter what intermediaries she operates through. The primary flaw of PtV seems to be that it's an overly literal genie -frame your questions poorly, and you may get an outcome that fits what you asked for but not what you wanted.



Contessa is shown to be too competent and experienced in using her power in canon for this to really work. Maybe she fell into this trap in the earliest years of Cauldron, but at some point her explicit habit of asking several different variations on her core question would lead into her asking the right question to hit onto non-stupid/conflict-focused plans, and she'd transition over to the competency she's supposed to have according to canon anyway.

There's also the point that it is, in all honesty, unlikely her shard was programmed properly for working with a host. Eden somehow accidentally lost/launched it in the crash, having not gotten around to doing any of the things she'd do for prepping the shard for use by hosts, and the only hacking she seems to do before being sort-of-kind-of-killed is that of blocking PtV from being usable against Entities. The conflict drive is unlikely to have been activated -it'd be really dumb if Entity shards always had conflict protocols active at all times, and more importantly than it being dumb Entities wouldn't function as presented if every piece of them was always running those protocols.

So Contessa probably has a shard that functions almost exactly as it does when being used by an Entity... especially since her shard is from Abbadon originally, and while it's not clear what path of "evolution" Abbadon went down, it's definitely a different path. It might not have conflict protocols inherent to it!



It's more accurate to say the Path provided no greater a chance of success than any human-made plan did. It's not that PtV couldn't provide a Path to things with the ability to kill an Entity -it just would lock up if directly asked about Entities (And for some reason Endbringers) and they didn't have enough information to know what the right questions would be to ask to get around that.

Crappy Pokemon metagame metaphor: I'm facing off against Rayquaza and I have PtV. In this scenario, Rayquaza is an Entity, and if I ask PtV "Which move do I use to OHKO Rayquaza" PtV goes "404 error". But if I ask "Which Pokemon using which move would OHKO a Dragon/Flying type with a statline of x/x/x/x/x/x" it'll promptly say "Send out Kyurem-White and use Ice Beam" and there you go, I have my Entity-killer.

Contessa could've used PtV to find a way of killing the Entities, she just couldn't have had PtV explicitly confirm that the path would kill Scion.



I'm just going to say that my read on Eidolon in canon is that a key aspect of his power is knowing what the right question to ask is, for getting the power he wants.

Comparison point: let's say you have a database you want to dig through. It has a tags system, like Sufficient Velocity. It doesn't let you see the tags -it just lets you search for a tag and then spit out everything that has the tag you searched for. If "Resonance Power" isn't tagged with anything you think to search for, you're not going to find "Resonance Power", and you'll have no idea it exists or what tags to look for it with.



A key part of Cauldron's policy of hiding Cauldron's existence is that they make sure as much of the world as possible treats the idea of Cauldron as so ridiculous as to not even be worth refuting explicitly. Just ignoring Bakuda is a great way to convey to people that no, Cauldron doesn't exist, nobody who matters takes it even slightly seriously, and more importantly is in line with their canon policy.



We don't get an exact count or even a range on the number of uses he gets for a given power. We know that the more "powerful" it is the more likely it is to burn out fast, but canon is honestly very vague on the range, and Eidolon's behavior isn't very helpful in guessing, since he's actually pretty good about changing up his powers when it becomes clear that his current set is either not working or is working only "well enough" when what he needs is a power that works really well in the context.



Simurgh quarantine zones all operate on the principal of killing anyone who tries to escape and making sure they know that's what will happen to dissuade them from actually trying to escape. They're not meant to physically contain people with walls and so on. They're meant to contain them with the threat of death.

Unless you think they should believe themselves unable to kill her if she tries to escape?
Unfortunately wrong. David's shard is explicitly pregog. It gives him the power he needs before he even needs it.
 
"There's no Path that lets Contessa become a firebreathing dragon with super-regeneration, either."

Step one, get Bonesaw to lobotomize and otherwise tinker with Butcher until memories no longer transfer, alternately clone original Butcher as blank slate.

Step two have blank brained Lung Clone kill Butcher.

Step three kill Lung Clone.

Really not that hard.:p
I forget the name of the fiction that Taylor basicly does this after getting a quasi-Blasto shard. Ends up with Blasto + BoneSaw + Quantum shards with a nice killed butcher clone I believe. Seed I think?
 
No, she does not, as canon ultimately implies, personally handle every single enforcer event. That's ludicrous and undermines, among other things, the idea that Cauldron has successfully maintained its secrecy for 20+ years.
See quote delivered by Terrabrand.
More logical that she done direct interventions enough to create urban legend of Competent Woman in a Hat, witch is part of PtV for some reason, but not ALL of them.

I was assuming there was some naturalistic reason why Endbringers were not precoggable
Due to the fact that precognition is mathematical predictive modelling, not time shenanigans, if you can't predict any subject in bigger model, than due to butterfly effect precision of said model drops. The more important subject is, more rapidly precision drops, because it's affects more.
Therefore all "precog invisible" subjects ARE visible to SHARD, but not to the user.

Speaking of precognition. How different precog powers interact.
Coil uses alt. timelines to ask questions from Dinah. For it to work, Coil shard had to emulate Dinah powers. Next, when Dinah asked any long-term and/or global questions, her shard has to taken Contessa's actions into account, for witch it needs to emulate PtV, witch is clearly impossible.
Therefore, i make a conclusion that part (if not all) of precog shards needs to interchange information to work.
 
Unless you think they should believe themselves unable to kill her if she tries to escape?
That is exactly what I think they should believe, give a tinker enough time and fuck yes they can escape without being killed. I'm sure Bakuda, given enough time, can make a bomb that breaks down the barriers between different worlds and escape into one.
 
Unfortunately wrong. David's shard is explicitly pregog. It gives him the power he needs before he even needs it.

I have never seen any quote to that effect anywhere and that is incompatible with canon-as-written. Eidolon gets powers by going into a situation, letting go of a power, waiting for his shard to fill his perceived need, discarding it if it isn't what he wants, repeat until he has what he wants. If it used precognition to give him what he needed it as he needed it, canon-as-written wouldn't happen. As such, even if you find a WOG quote and link it, I will ignore it as wrong.

See quote delivered by Terrabrand.
More logical that she done direct interventions enough to create urban legend of Competent Woman in a Hat, witch is part of PtV for some reason, but not ALL of them.

I think you're trying to say I misunderstood canon -no, Terrabrand grabbed a quote from early in the story. It is, in fact, the quote that contributed to me initially assuming Contessa commanded enforcer events rather than doing them manually, personally. The problem is that much later, when canon is covering Contessa's enforcer actions, everything being stated strongly implies that she personally handles all enforcer events and always has.

If you're instead agreeing with what Terrabrand and I are saying, you can ignore this.

Due to the fact that precognition is mathematical predictive modelling, not time shenanigans, if you can't predict any subject in bigger model, than due to butterfly effect precision of said model drops. The more important subject is, more rapidly precision drops, because it's affects more.
Therefore all "precog invisible" subjects ARE visible to SHARD, but not to the user.

No, Wildbow's WOG on precognition is that Entities have been using "look directly at future" precognition and were in the middle of transitioning to simulations when they hit Earth Bet. This is in line with canon, where some precog powers are fairly unreliable, but the PtV ones (Dinah's, Contessa's) are 100% reliable if not explicitly blocked.

Speaking of precognition. How different precog powers interact.
Coil uses alt. timelines to ask questions from Dinah. For it to work, Coil shard had to emulate Dinah powers. Next, when Dinah asked any long-term and/or global questions, her shard has to taken Contessa's actions into account, for witch it needs to emulate PtV, witch is clearly impossible.
Therefore, i make a conclusion that part (if not all) of precog shards needs to interchange information to work.

Precognition powers explicitly interfere with each other. (Which makes perfect sense all on its own) Coil's power combining with Dinah's is the only time canon ever contradicts this idea, and it's one of the (many) reasons why I prefer running with the interpretation that Coil's power is utilizing quantum-many-worlds-hax-nonsense to work rather than operating via simulation -because the many worlds approach makes the synergy logical, while running with simulation or precognition to explain Coil's power instantly makes it impossible to reconcile his power having synergy with Dinah's.

That is exactly what I think they should believe, give a tinker enough time and fuck yes they can escape without being killed. I'm sure Bakuda, given enough time, can make a bomb that breaks down the barriers between different worlds and escape into one.

The quarantine isn't about trapping people in there. In all honesty, if it was an option to dump Simurgh'd people into another dimension and close it off, that would probably already be the canon solution, as it's infinitely superior to walling in a city and minimizing contact. (In fact: it is now headcanon for me that this is one of the reasons why the Simurgh hit Professor Haywire's location, to prevent exactly that scenario from restricting the Simurgh's ability to influence the world) The point of the quarantine is to prevent the Simurgh'd people from causing harm to everybody else on Earth, nothing more.

Furthermore, the only people who'd have any reason to expect such a thing (Cauldron) are the people who'd be most likely to be completely okay with the outcome -or outright desire it, if you assume they want her bombs. It's not like she gets out of their reach by escaping into another dimension, and if she escapes to another dimension she's probably a lot safer from Simurgh'd people and so on.
 
No, Wildbow's WOG on precognition is that Entities have been using "look directly at future" precognition and were in the middle of transitioning to simulations when they hit Earth Bet. This is in line with canon, where some precog powers are fairly unreliable, but the PtV ones (Dinah's, Contessa's) are 100% reliable if not explicitly blocked.
Ziz has one of the best precog powers, and i'm under impression that she uses modeling, not future-vision.
 
Ziz has one of the best precog powers, and i'm under impression that she uses modeling, not future-vision.
False. The Simurgh explicitly sees the past and the future; and not the present. The Simurgh can't be simply modeling because then it'd know the present even if you assume it's modeling the future off of information it's viewing in the past.
 
False. The Simurgh explicitly sees the past and the future; and not the present. The Simurgh can't be simply modeling because then it'd know the present even if you assume it's modeling the future off of information it's viewing in the past.
Well...
28.x (Interlude) said:
Study, analysis.
An impulse, something that couldn't be tracked with any conventional devices, then a steady feedback. Pretercognition. Spread out over several targets at once, it serves as her primary sense. Each target is conceptualized in the context of twelve to eighty years of history. More time, more feedback from the steady feed of information, and the images clarify. Discard the useless elements, maintain the pivotal ones.
Deciphering, searching for the fulcrum points.
Focus on one target, and the decoding is faster, but this costs her the ability to sense other things in any detail. Necessary, in most cases, to form a distraction, or to strike hard enough that she can take advantage of the enemy's preoccupation.
This was made easier by another sense. Another power extends in the other direction, and this is not one that can be sensed by most. Possibilities, as another jumble of images. These clarify as the others do, as eventualities are discarded, the targets around her coming into focus.
One target comes into full focus, and their existence is now visible, from the moment of their birth until the time they disappear from sight. Often, this is the point of their death. Other times, they disappear into darkness, obscured by another power.
Often, this is not a true obstacle, if she has had time to look. There are the fulcrum points. Crises, themes, decisions, fears and aspirations are clearly visible. The individual is understood well enough that their actions can be guessed after they disappear from view.
It's open to interpretations, of course, but i see predictive modelling, not future-sight.
 
Uh.

"This was made easier by another sense. Another power extends in the other direction, and this is not one that can be sensed by most. Possibilities, as another jumble of images. These clarify as the others do, as eventualities are discarded, the targets around her coming into focus."

A sense, a power that extends in 'the other direction', apparently the future. Information from this sense is implied to be part of how she plans. There is also as I understand a WOG on the topic, but I don't know where and it kinda doesn't matter when I have something in that very quote to point out.

How is that not 'one of the Simurghs powers is a direct sense seeing into the future'?
 
Also, it occurred to me that there was a part of that scene I shoulda grabbed in the first place, in part because later canon/word of god contradicts it as I understand in rather nonsensical ways

"Gregor, Shamrock and I were test subjects. Guinea pigs to test the new formulas, so the buyers don't get fucked. According to Shamrock, three in five of us don't even survive. One in five Subjects are retained and brainwashed so they can protect the business and enforce the contracts. Shamrock was going to be one of them, but she escaped. The rest of us have our memories removed, and we're released as part of the 'Nemesis program.'"

This pretty directly implies a number of case 53s in Cauldrons control, specifically as brainwashed and regularly employed enforcers, approximately equal to the number of memory wiped case 53s out in the world such as Gregor, Newter, and Weld.
 
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