This is my thinking when it comes to the Rearmament of Germany in 1920. (Please, correct me or even go against me, I'm just trying to justify my thinking)
I remember he managed to get away unscathed mostly due to his mega media enterprise and he is still in Germany
Herr Hugenberg is a well-respected member of the media community and owns a large number of papers, some of which are under investigation for sedition. He is wealthy enough to be out on bail and is suing the government under free-speech protections to get his papers back. He is at present resident in lovely Koenigsberg, and had no choice - as a civilian, surely everyone sees that he had to go along with the army's coup? He supports the right sort of republic, you know.
Hah! What does ze dink dis is, America? What is dis "free speech"?? Anyway, hopefully he'll end up getting a looong free stay at a lovely government facility, with meals included!
The worst-case for Poland is a Soviet ripping off of Eastern Poland, substantial chunks of Eastern Poland, leaving Poland crippled and riddled with communist agitators. A Polish Soviet Republic is a bridge too far for Russia when it has not yet even ended the Russian Civil War. Russia is profoundly exhausted, to an extent that makes Weimar Germany look buff and fresh.
None approaching the level of the Red Army's more than a hundred thousand men waltzing onto Poland and installing a puppet state or seizing a bunch of land for itself right after conquering Ukraine. It was assumed that they would then do the same to Central Europe, and then why stop after that? Don't take my word on that, take the Right Honorable Edgar Vicent's. A contemporary and British diplomat in Berlin right now.
They were a joke, and nowhere near the Union's level. Their neighbors promptly took care of them.
Because this is much, much worse than the situation in the East then. They didn't even know that the Whites would win or not at that point. The situation was a lot more rosy for them then.
I assume you are referring to my comment towards French equipment in Polish hands. Again, apples to oranges, South America was a dumping ground for military cast offs, while they gave those arms to the Polish to fight the Soviets and guard against the Germans, not just to make a quick buck like the former. Arms sales don't mean anything until they do.
You just said the French are deeply unreasonable and won't accede to any requests unless the British and Americans force them to. How is relying on them not a crutch?? Poland falling or being relegated to irrelevance is as much a tool in diplomacy as the former, the difference is that it expands the limit of concessions we can reasonably expect and allows us to reason with the French.
Screw it, what's life without a little risk? Changing my vote to The Heir is Dead
So a 4 month war involving hundreds of thousands of soldiers and tens of thousands of deaths is nothing and the neighbors promptly taking out the trash, but the Soviet Invasion of Poland is a world ending threat when the Poles initiated hostilities in the first place and the Soviets have already been on a wave throughout Eastern Europe since the armistice in 1918? Why is Poland as a domino the crucial infallible piece that will reverse French foreign policy in regards to Germany?
You're putting words in my mouth. Nowhere have I implied or stated this. Especially since the French did react strongly to it, they delayed reparations and took a blind eye towards a series of treaty violations on our part. The point is moot, since the war is over, the issue at hand is whether they will consider the Soviets a threat to Germany and Central Europe and react accordingly.
Also not true, the Whites were at their peak in 1919. The Soviets are in an infinitely better position right now and is a much bigger threat if they get Poland. You're putting words in my mouth yet again, I hardly consider them a world ending threat. They are a significant one to European stability if they win in Poland however, which is something we can use to our advantage.
Because contemporary foreign observers literally described this when predicting a potential fall of Poland. They considered it the last major roadstop towards going into Central Europe. And considering we have a smaller army than most of them, why not us too? It would certainly change their calculations I'd think.
Now that you mentioned it, Finland! Another place where the French were selling to a nation threatened by communists. What you are implying is that just because they sold it to other countries means they didn't send it to Poland to support them, which is just not true. Also the FT is just an example, and 200 tanks for a nation such as Poland in 1920 is not the pittance you imply it is.
Putting words in my mouth. Nowhere have I said it is impossible to conduct foreign policy without Poland falling, just much more difficult. I am just pointing out that no, there is no way the French will consider rearmament or ceding an inch of German land any sooner than in OTL unless we either:
