[Continuation] Schwarz-Rot-Gold: An Interwar Germany Quest
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The problem with this is the Polish won't ever make land concessions, and aren't in any position to help us in any way, nor are they inclined to. They hate us and would seize Silesia if they thought they could get away with. If they are weaker, we have a stronger position to renegotiate reparations or even limited rearmament and could even maybe seize some former German lands, like Danzig. I don't get why people think that a stronger Poland is good for us, if they are strong, why would they ever make concessions to us? Why would they hand us over Posen/Silesia or West Prussia? And how does that help us in negotiating with the allies? On the other hand, if they fall, the Soviet leadership is thrown into disarray and we'd have a threat to Central Europe we can point at to get relaxed restrictions.
We can't, we'd be under Versailles restrictions and the Polish would be the last country to want to help us bypass it. A strong Poland gives us nothing but a buffer state to the Soviet Union, and they'd have no reason to make concessions. I urge you to reconsider your change. The only way we could do any meaningful diplomacy with them was if we renounced our claims on their territory, and signed a non-aggression pact. Which is political suicide.
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Look at it from the Entente point of view.
A weak Poland needs to be propped up against Soviet pressure and German coercion -- a coercive, revanchist Germany, even if it is a Republic, must be opposed. Here, the interests of the Entente and the interests of Polish nationalists line up well -- Germany is strong, Poland is weak, and in order to maintain the balance of power on the European continent, German moves in the East need to be opposed.
A strong Poland, if it comes to some agreement with Germany, maintains the balance of power -- Germany can be checked by the Poles and French, and thus Washington and London see Germany as the wronged party in Versailles, and are more willing to pressure Paris to look away from Treaty revisions.
I agree that if we want to maintain German democracy through this period, we need to be very careful about militarism -- but I think that coercion to get what we want from Poland increases, rather than decreases, the influence of militarist factions.
As such, I think it is easier, and more in line with our values, to try and get Treaty revisions through cooperative diplomacy rather than through armed suasion. At the end of the day, reconciliation with Poland is the project of a lifetime, but we can at least start down that path, and secure our own political fortunes as well.
To be clear, this isn't a comment on the merits of weakening Soviet leadership -- this is specifically in response to the line of reasoning of why a strong Poland can be in our interest, especially since we know a rump Poland is likely to exist afterwards.
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Ok. Congratulations, dear QM. I can't choose, because both lines can be argued with validitiy.
At the end, the deal(ing) with Poland runs down to a "Danzig for Guarantees" type of situation. The thing to discuss is, is this easier with a weaker or stronger (stronger doesn't mean "capable of resisting", its about self-perception) Poland? Would a weakend Poland be more willing to accept an offer of "move to the east" on the expense of Russia? Or would they rather behave like cornered rats? Would pressure on part of the Reich lead to Entente intervention? Can/should we frame/do it as friendly help for a brighter future?
Confusing thing.
At the end, the deal(ing) with Poland runs down to a "Danzig for Guarantees" type of situation. The thing to discuss is, is this easier with a weaker or stronger (stronger doesn't mean "capable of resisting", its about self-perception) Poland? Would a weakend Poland be more willing to accept an offer of "move to the east" on the expense of Russia? Or would they rather behave like cornered rats? Would pressure on part of the Reich lead to Entente intervention? Can/should we frame/do it as friendly help for a brighter future?
Confusing thing.
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The problem with this is that Germany IS weak in this case, arguably weaker than Poland even. And their worth as an ally in Central Europe plummets if they lose most of their industry, agriculture and manpower. Besides, the SPD isn't coercive or revanchist, and the chances of such a government emerging are slim to none, and the Entente know that. It would make a lot more sense to go softer on us to put a halt on communist expansionism than a dying Poland.
The Soviets would serve that role much better, since it would make a less weak Germany much more attractive. This reasoning can be applied in "the Heir is Dead" much more effectively in my opinion.
Reconciliation with Poland won't happen unless we give up any claims on them, and that would lose all the tentative support the right has for the Republic. And as you say, it would be a project of a lifetime in any case, which means we could never see it happen anyway.
I'm sorry but I have to disagree on this, the only benefit a stronger Poland has is as a buffer towards the Soviets. I really doubt negotiations with them or the Entente will go any easier and they'd never give us concessions if they could avoid it. It is not worth it in my opinion.
In my view, we have two paths ahead that boil down to this in the end.
-One where rearmament and economic recovery is much more difficult since negotiations with the Entente would be very one-sided and dependent on the Anglo-Americans. But with the benefit we'd have to worry less about our neighbors potentially invading us or Central Europe.
-And two, where we have an external enemy threatening the balance of power, which we can leverage onto loosening restrictions. A Soviets Union with leadership problems but still relatively threatening and a more flexible rump Poland.
Like, I understand why the first option could be attractive to some people, but the second just sounds more interesting and gives us more room to wiggle around diplomatically, at the expense of a threatening neighbor.
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I think our deal with the merchant of death already kind of has us doing that.
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We're actually already doing that! We sent our machinery to Vickers, which is a front for Sir Basil's arm trafficking, who shares the profits with us. We have also sent arms to Poland and Italy directly previously.
Hungry Hungary is under Triannon, so they unfortunately can't buy our arms.
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Dutch
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The entire plan seems to be "Hope the Entente will save us when the Soviets come knocking" and leaves no provisions in place for if they don't.
And the SPD being in charge won't magically alter opinions all that much, ask the Austrian republicans who had their dreams shattered.
If we are as weak as you say we are then that only makes me more reluctant to allow a Soviet Poland on our border.
The entire plan seems to be "Hope the Entente will save us when the Soviets come knocking" and leaves no provisions in place for if they don't.
And the SPD being in charge won't magically alter opinions all that much, ask the Austrian republicans who had their dreams shattered.
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The Army: Units and Garrisons
mouli
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Units and Garrisons
Where my Guards appear, there is no room for democracy.
-Wilhelm II to representatives of German political parties, 1917
Where my Guards appear, there is no room for democracy.
-Wilhelm II to representatives of German political parties, 1917
The Reichswehr forms at present a state within a state, as per the informal agreement negotiated between Friedrich Ebert and former Quartermaster-General Wilhelm Groener in 1919. The result is that the Reichswehr maintains a great deal of power over its own affairs and has a similar independence to that enjoyed by the Imperial German Army prior to 1918. This results in regular army formations often hosting heavily politicized elements, and the army in general taking a keen interest in politics. While the army is at present 'above regional politics' that does not mean that its garrisons will not intervene in the case of insurrection, and it remains the single largest force concentration in Germany.
The war may have ended, but the Reichswehr has made sure its guns are close at hand.
- Wehrkreis I (HQ Koenigsberg)
- Wehrkreis II (HQ Stettin)
- Wehrkreis III (HQ Berlin)
AN: The army remains a force in politics, and this informational is quest infrastructure that will update turn by turn. At present only 'active' Wehrkreise are shown in the accordions, and I cannot for the life of me find a map for Weimar Germany. All I have got was one for 1938, so there it is.
Votes remain open.
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how big is that in numbers roughly?
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Roughly 100.000 men I think.
If the Poles fall, we can sell it to them, since they'd hardly be a threat to us. We'll have to see with Sir Basil.
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mouli
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Around the 100k required by treaty, if one counts support arms and staff.
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If we need to, we can mobilize these and expand our army in a emergency. It would be a treaty violation of course.
Sounds like a job for Oster. We might want to try to replace Von Seeckt with Rupprecht and his underling with a Bavarian officer. It would placate them and remove what could be a dangerous element in the Reichswehr...
Well, we can sell the heavy artillery to the Poles or the Baltic States.
The military seems to be 50-50 for and against the Republic. I am especially wary of the Black Reichswehr organizations that remain armed and organized. Sure, many of them died in the recent Civil War, but they can recruit new blood. Time also causes one to forget how bad the fighting was.
This is the real danger though. We need to see about putting this guy on a tight leash or sending our detectives on his trail to make sure nothing illegal is happening.
The military seems to be 50-50 for and against the Republic. I am especially wary of the Black Reichswehr organizations that remain armed and organized. Sure, many of them died in the recent Civil War, but they can recruit new blood. Time also causes one to forget how bad the fighting was.
This is the real danger though. We need to see about putting this guy on a tight leash or sending our detectives on his trail to make sure nothing illegal is happening.
One of those regiments has to go back to the Czechs for dismantling due to treaty obligations.
Paramilitaries:
mouli
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Paramilitaries:
The erstwhile Weimar Republic was home to numerous highly active anti-state paramilitaries that in many cases were affiliated with existing political parties or espoused fringe views such as the establishment of a 'Thousand Year Reich'. Some of these organizations are nominally apolitical and are shown here due to their membership being highly politicized, and some of them are outright anti-government groups that seek to bring about some form of violent change of regime. The civil war has ended and Germany has dealt with the greatest threats to the republic, but in the shadows the knives remain.
I will, for the sake of simplicity, model only major paramilitary groups. Each one can be one or more of the following:
Umbrella Organizations: These are massive groups of hundreds of thousands that are not in and of themselves a danger to the state, but by the nature of their membership and leadership are able to act as a framework for other antigovernment groups to 'gestate', as it were. Some of them might be outspokenly anti-republic, some might not, but all of them have to be monitored simply due to their size. Most of these have overlaps of some sort or another.
Party Organizations: These are paramilitaries that are aligned with one party or another, or can indeed be from a group of parties and formed for a specific purpose. During the earlier civil war that resulted from the attempted Kapp-Luttwitz-Ludendorff coup, party paramilitaries formed a major source of recruitment for the republic, and they retain a certain degree of prominence in politics as a result of that. Regulation will be difficult.
Membership Numbers move from Low→Medium→Large→Massive. At 'Low' one might be no more than a few chapters in a city, at Medium one might be a party of a few thousand, at Large one is an organization of tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands, and at Massive one is an organization of a million or more.
- Der Stahlhelm (Umbrella Organization)
- Reichsbanner Schwarz-Rot-Gold (Umbrella Organization)
- Black Reichswehr (Umbrella Organization)
- Organization Consul
- Freikorps Oberland
- Bund Bayern und Reich
- Red Front Fighters' League
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Err...talk about timing. Two thought which occured to me (unrelated to the whole Poland or the Soviets discussion:
1) OTL, Anna, Hans, Georg and Maria had a nasty time, but they still did the dirty and Alfons, Bernhard, Celcil, Dominik and their siblings came into existence. Who where around 19 in 1939, ready to be conscripted (or work in the munitions plants.
ITL, Hans shot Georg, Maria starved, Hans got blown up by his own weapon and Anna decided that men caused too much grief by dying. Which means the (wo)manpower crunch which hit Germany after WW2 will hit us earlier, but not as hard. This gives us an opportunity to push through maternity leave and other socialists policies (like a reduced workweek) in order to alleviate this (and yes, incentivize reproduction, this is 1920, after all). But then, the crunch will hit us. To alleviate it, we could engage in:
Automation! Do more with less work. Every hour that is saved is an hour which can be spent on other things. And yes, we can sell that to the army as "moar shells". More Automation. Better guns, less manpower in the field. This is the country of Zuse, after all. Which means we need the germonies for R&D. Which means the reparation portions of the ToV need to go.
New people! People are out there. We just have to convince them to become germans. The former colonies, Poland, Russia. Get them, integrate them, and we can smoothen out the bump. Of course, we need to do that carefully(and integrate them thouroughly) and need to have clamped down on the far-rightists first.
2) We must get rid of the army limitations of the ToV. The post by @mouli is coincidence, but the black reichswehr must be disbanded or folded into the proper Reichswehr. This kind of outside-of-official-command caused lots of damage in Weimar. Even if the civil war rid us of the worst parts (because the went with the stooges), this is playing with fire. And right now, we can't disband them. Why? Because the ToV isn't an encompassing arms-reduction-treaty or includes a provision saying "Germany must disarm, but everyone who fights them will be stomped on hard by the other signatories". There is a hard limit on Germany without providing security. So, in this day and age, this means we must have a shadow army. And no, that sentiment isn't limited to diehard militarists or nationalists. This is the common consensus. So, we need to get the army limitation lifted. Sacrifice the navy if that makes Washington and London happy.
Finishes reading the Militias List.
Loosens collar.
You know. I feel like I just bought a house that was marketed as 'a bit of a fixer-upper,' only to walk into the basement and find a colony, nay, a megapolis of termites.
And then one of them puts on a stalhelm, Sieg Heils and welcomes me to their Thousand Year Reich.
I am rather concerned.
Loosens collar.
You know. I feel like I just bought a house that was marketed as 'a bit of a fixer-upper,' only to walk into the basement and find a colony, nay, a megapolis of termites.
And then one of them puts on a stalhelm, Sieg Heils and welcomes me to their Thousand Year Reich.
I am rather concerned.
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And in the background, a man is inciting your renevation workers while the real estate agent mutters about the Jews in low tones.
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Looks like Hans Oster is doing God's work for us in keeping track of the power structures in Germany! Really glad we didn't burn our assets with the Ratlines, since it probably means we have some assets in the various right wing organizations and the Red Front Fighters' League.
Nope, they're in Berlin! I'm hoping we can do a deal with Sir Basil and the Czechs when "dismantling" the "scrap metal". Maybe we can sell it to the Turks, Greeks or Poles.
Yeah, them and the Bund Bayern und Reich seem to be the forces of sanity in here. We should try to merge the two if possible. Maybe by doing some political horse trading with Ruprecht when we inevitably have to replace Von Seekt.