0.3: State of the World, August 1920
Or: Ebert Reads the Papers
Western Europe
Belgium: Hunger after Plague: Belgium was devastated by the Great War and remains at the moment a place where food and heating coal are short – the German destruction of much of Belgium's industry as they pulled out has led to a terrible winter and a hungry one, and even summer has been far from easy. The Great Humanitarian, as Herbert Hoover is now being called, has organized a near miraculous effort to feed and clothe the people affected by the war in France and Belgium, but he cannot do it all – and with German coal deliveries and payments delayed due to the German Civil War, Belgium is suffering and headed into a cold September with little to hope for. Even American food aid, gigantic though it has been, is not enough to close the gap that exists at present.
France: Instability: The French economy has been devastated by the war and their treasury is deep in debt to the Americans and the British. A French refusal to pay interest on war debt until German deliveries of goods in cash and kind resume has led to a standoff among the Allied powers – those at the table negotiating a schedule of payments know full well that in the wake of the war the Germans are not likely to be able to satisfy the French public's demands, and even the French state knows this. But the line
Germany will pay has already seen much resonance in the Chamber of Deputies. Will France resume payments on her war debts regardless, or will there be a suspension – the uncertainty has wracked the Paris Bourse and the London Exchange, and the economic instability and recession has fueled political polarization.
France: Arms Disposal: One of the few economic bright spots in France has been the winning of bids for disposal of German arms manufacturing equipment by a French firm, a firm partly owned by Vickers and partly by the Union Parisienne Bank. The company has begun the sale of old machine tools and finished goods to companies based in China at a profit, and those companies in turn appear to be selling the goods and tools on to the Beiyang Government at a substantial markup. While this has raised hackles among the Japanese and raised eyebrows among the rest of the Allies, it is enough of a fillip for France that she is willing to turn a blind eye – even willing to credit the Germans with a discounted amount on the reparations payments (heavily discounted, however).
Britain: Standoff: Britain has done well enough in the war and demobilized with alacrity, but holds a massive amount of war debt that will never be repaid to her. Russian debt was guaranteed by Britain and now has to be paid by the UK to American banks, and much of the French war debt was similarly guaranteed by London. With Russia's willingness to pay dead in the water and with France seriously contemplating a renegotiation of her debt due to an inability to pay it alone, the British are facing a ruinous expense. Britain can bear it, for now – but this payment issue will go on for decades. And it will not allow Britain to build a home fit for heroes. Why should money that was used in America to buy American guns be paid back to those same Americans?
Ireland: Rebellion Grinds On: The IRA has mounted a fresh wave of attacks in Ireland and the British Government has responded by reinforcing the British Army in Ireland with units that were earlier earmarked for the Rhineland. While this has raised hackles in Paris, it has won some measure of safety in Ireland, or at least in urban Ireland, at the cost of having the army and the Royal Irish Constabulary patrol in force with loaded guns. Nerves are tense and the situation remains on edge, and the IRA is flush with German arms bought on the black market – an atrocity from one side or another seems almost inevitable at this point.
Southern Europe
Italy: A Weak First Push: The use of troops to clear out striking anarchists in the Italian industrial belt of the northwest was mooted early in 1920 and then later given the nod, and the army decided to send in southern units to avoid the deployed troops showing sympathies with the northern metalworkers. The decision to avoid deployment of heavy artillery and instead use infantry to clear the streets and the factories backfired with the infantry coming under fire from metalworkers who had barricaded themselves in the complexes and who were themselves in many cases former soldiers thanks to the War. The first regiment sent into Torino did not come out intact, and that has emboldened the anarcho-syndicalists of Italy. While their prospects look slim now that the army has locked down the area around the plants with larger formations and is attempting to convince the government to allow the use of artillery, the
Biennio Rosso still goes on. The use of troops and the sight of southern Italian infantry parading through Turin and Milan will lead to further radicalization.
Italy: German Arms: Italy has seen the bulk of her arsenals be locked down by striking industrial workers, seen combat formations drawn from northern Italy be wracked by desertion, and has since been short of arms and industrial machinery. The use of food exports to Germany in exchange for arms manufacturing gear has been a sore point between Italy and the Entente, and may continue to be one, but for the present has allowed the Royal Italian Army to seriously consider storming and suppressing the mass strikes and the burgeoning urban insurgency that is developing in northern Italy. For better or for worse, the German equipment, the German technicians and the German guns are being sent to southern Italy in direct opposition to the more communist north.
Spain: SECN Expansion: Vickers has announced a further expansion of the arsenals around SECN, the
Sociedad Española de Construcción Naval that builds Spanish warships and is owned by a mix of British arms and shipbuilding firms. The gear that comes to Spain has stamps that show it to be scrap metal from the Rhineland, and Spanish inspectors are not asking too many questions – after all, the Republic's liberal arms sale policy allowed it to make much money during the war. Why not keep the good times rolling? Surely things will take enough time to settle down that Spain will be able to reap a profit from this. Especially with far less in the way of imperial interests and scruples than the British, Americans and French.
The Former Dual Monarchy: Economic Collapse: With the dissolution of the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the disruption of the trade networks that sustained the region, the economies of Austria, Hungary, the new SHS-State and other nations are in freefall. Rampant inflation and hunger across the old Empire are leading to fringe parties or opposition parties gaining more and more credibility. For Austria, the civil war and unrest in Germany have given the Christian Social Party a boost over its pro-Anschluss rivals...for now.
Central Europe
Germany: Silesia: Polish Unrest: The Poles in Silesia have been drawing on the Polish Underground and the arms that were smuggled across the border in 1919 by Poland to continue an insurgency that has already led to multiple major atrocities in the area. With the withdrawal of Allied forces as the German civil war broke out and the consequent uncertainty as to the Germanness or Polishness of most of Silesia, the ethnic violence has intensified. The Triumvirate's habit of relying on ultranationalist paramilitaries to keep the peace has exacerbated ethnic polarization while murdering a good deal of the Polish underground, and we have a region that has been quieted for now but is a bubbling pot of unrest under the surface. The Allies have already mooted a plebiscite, but that could lead to the loss of more of Silesia and a consequent loss in seats/popularity for our government. At present we have kept order using armed police, but those police are armed perhaps too well – the French are demanding that we stand them down and reduce their armament, and this in the face of a Polish insurgency.
Germany: East Prussia: Exodus: East Prussia is seeing a massive influx of immigration from the new nations east of it, with Baltic Germans and Germans from Russia now coming by train, by ship and in some unhappy cases on foot from the east. The province was already drained by the civil war and had its borders ravaged by a Polish insurgency in 1919, and this is threatening to strain the resources of the local military government. Food is scarce elsewhere in Germany, and a good deal of East Prussia's badly needed surplus is going to feeding the refugees from the east.
Germany: East Prussia: Polish Unrest: The Allied Commission's planned plebiscite in the southern areas of East Prussia was allowed to proceed by the Triumvirate amid massive voter intimidation and the use of anti-Soviet propaganda, timing the vote to take place as the Soviets closed in on Warsaw. East Prussia has thus voted to remain German even in its predominantly Polish border area, and that has sparked violence from the Polish underground that has since seen the use of ultranationalist paramilitaries and armed federal police to keep order with extreme prejudice. Ethnic polarization continues here, and the German population has a siege mentality that makes depolarization difficult – much like Silesia.
Poland: Eagle Unbowed: The Polish government has refused to consent to talks with the Soviets even as the Red Army approaches Warsaw, and reports from General von Lettow-Vorbeck suggest that the current plan of the Polish Army is to exploit the disorganization among the Russians for a flanking attack designed to hit the formations at the edge of army-level headquarters' responsibility. With Soviet formations reportedly coming 'unstuck', that is to say moving at different speeds and without good synchronization, the Polish Army and its German advisors are planning to take the Reds in flank as they cross the rivers that come to Warsaw. While the old Polish Army was destroyed at Kiev, Russian overconfidence has already led to the Red Cavalry getting a bloody nose as the Poles retreated – and the Russians reportedly do not yet know of the extent of German arms shipments. Poland's fate hangs by a slender thread, but perhaps it is a sturdy one.
The Soviet Union
Priestly Evacuation: The civil war in Russia and the ongoing persecution of Catholic clerics in Ukraine as a result of it has led to a mass exodus of clergy from there, and has led to the church taking an interest in calming the area. It has also led the current Pope, the pacifist, to advocate a strong stance against communism which in his eyes has an anticlerical atheistic bent. We can expect Catholic politicians to advocate a harder line on communism – and, in view of the Pope's May encyclical, on ultranationalism – and this will probably percolate to the Zentrum.
Red Goes Faster: The Soviet Union has crushed the last dregs of resistance in southern Russia and has already intensified the 'decossackization' policy pushed by Yakov Sverdlov in the wake of several Cossack warlords raising armies against the USSR. The Soviet Union has begun to push eastwards along with the armies headed for Poland, and that eastern offensive seems to have little to no opposition – the White Armies have been almost entirely decapitated, and organized resistance seems to have coalesced around Alexander Kolchak in the Urals. It is not likely to succeed. In the Far East, the Soviets have held the railways and managed to suppress most of the bandit armies, and an ill-chosen engagement between the forces of Roman von Ungern-Sternberg and the withdrawing Imperial Japanese Army further reduced the White Armies' presence in the Far East.
Asia
China: Zhili Ascendant: The Zhili Clique with the aid of their allies in Fengtian have beaten the Anhui Clique in a few days and installed a more compliant government in Beijing. The Fengtian Clique's aid and assistance mean that they have demands to make in Beijing, and the instability of the current Chinese regime means that western arms companies are already lining up to sell and set up shop in China. The warlord era continues.
India: Non-Cooperation: The Indian National Congress already withdrew its support for colonial reforms after the passage of the repressive Rowlatt Act of 1919 and the massacre of civilians by the British Army in Amritsar that year. The Indian Muslim Movement launched in 1919 to protest sanctions on the sultan and the Ottoman Empire has since seen a rise in support from the INC leadership, and there are rumors of a larger wave of strikes and boycotts planned in India. Coming as they do in the wake of disease and poor harvests, Britain will need a deft hand and good luck to avoid further growth of the independence movements in their crown jewel.
The Americas
The United States of America
Recession: In the wake of the collapse of war demand and the impact of a hasty, mass demobilization as well as the Spanish Flu ravaging a large chunk of America, the economy has cratered. This has been made worse by the lack of payment of German reparations which has delayed French and British war debt payments, and American banks are at present scrambling – either German gold comes in soon, or Wall Street will see difficulties. While there are signs that a recovery is in the offing, it's still early days yet – the media and indeed most of the people are hoping that the winner of the election – either candidate Harding or candidate Cox – can accelerate that recovery. Eugene Debs has also run for election, and may act as a spoiler candidate. Debs' Socialist Party has made hay from the mismanagement of the war effort and is being targeted by many on the American right as a 'revolutionary party' that may split America asunder like what happened in Germany.
Wilson's Folly: With the rapid success of the Red Army in southern Russia, the defeat of most White Army forces in the western sections of Russia and the fact that American troops in Russia are already taking small-scale casualties in the Pacific, the Russian Intervention is seeming more and more like folly. American troops have been pulled off the 'quiet Rhine' in 1919 just before the German Civil War broke out, leaving the policymaking to Britain and France and allowing the Senate to roast the President for 'putting America's eggs in the wrong basket'. While the public is at present satisfied with demobilization, isolationism has been gaining steam.
South America
Red Establishments: 1918-1920 has seen a massive upswing in Communist or Socialist party activity and the formation of party organizations in Argentina along with growth in membership for the Chilean Communist Party. Along with that comes an increase in paranoia among some of the South American establishment, notably the dictator of Venezuela, Juan Vicente Gomez. This rapid reaction to socialist and communist organizing – a reaction driven by the news of Germany's civil war – is likely to drive further radicalization unless checked by other means or institutions.
The Middle East and Africa
The Turkish Revolution: The Treaty of Sevres is to be signed in France, well away from potential unrest in Turkey and the former Ottoman Empire, and is to be signed by representatives of the Sultan. The Treaty has roused the ire of the Turkish nationalist movement, who have already been declared in Ankara that the signers are to be stripped of Turkish citizenship. The British occupation of Istanbul and the presence of Greek troops on Turkish soil in western Anatolia has poured fuel on the fire and further eroded the legitimacy of the Ottoman government in Istanbul, and former General Mustafa Kemal has already massed his forces and called for aid from abroad. There are rumors of Bolshevik gold and representatives on the way to Germany, and the British Army does not have the numbers to keep a lid on Anatolia. The Turkish Republic does not seem to have high chances of survival, opposed as it is by the Entente, by Greece in particular, and by the remnants of the empire in occupied Istanbul, but perhaps it might succeed under General Kemal. Perhaps.
Blood on the Sand: After the royal Syrian refusal to bend to an ultimatum issued by the French government representative Henri Gouraud, the French Army sent in General Mariano Gourbet and 9,000 North African and Senegalese infantry, backed by tanks and fighter-bombers. With French forces overstretched from participating in the Russian intervention, the Anatolian occupation, the Rhineland occupation and various League of Nations duties across Europe, the French Army was unable to spare more than the ten battalions that it sent and the aging colonial artillery that trailed it. Faced with that, the Syrians mustered what was left of the wartime Arab Army, whose demobilization had been delayed due to issues in pay and transport. Further delays in the organization of Syrian forces and the rapid defeat of an advance force at Maysalun meant that the French Army attempted to storm Damascus with most of the Syrian force still inside and forming up, leading to a brutal urban slugfest in dense Damascus where French tanks were of less use than anticipated. France has taken the city and driven out the Syrians from their claimed mandate, but at Pyrrhic costs and cannot do much more in Syria at the moment, while much of the Arab Army has pulled out in good order.
AN: Part of me thinks that I went a bit overboard, part of me thinks that I haven't got it all. Feedback is therefore welcome. If there's anyone here who knows anything about interwar Japan that would be nice, I'm thin on sources there that don't deal with the IJN and would appreciate bouncing ideas off someone.
Multiple divergences here, so discussion is nice and remember, discussion feeds the QM's writing ![:V :V :V](/styles/sv_smiles/xenforo/emot-v.gif)