Nobody took our position in the Silesian matter because they wholeheartedly believed in the German cause, they did it for their own ends, there is not going to be any vehemence in that regard in defending Germany, the international pariah.
I'm not saying they think our cause is legitimate, only that it is in their best interests to back us in this. Poland isn't paying reparations, we are, and they acknowledged this even in OTL (The British and Italians especially.).
Also, I'd like to urge people to consider this: diplomacy with the Poles will have no bearing on the results of the plebiscite. The only way we could derail it was if we sent Freikorps there to prevent them from voting. The organization that ended up deciding who kept what was the LoN, not us or the Polish. The only thing it will do is make the conflict not as violent, which is not worth it over the Italian deal in my opinion.
I'm not saying they think our cause is legitimate, only that it is in their best interests to back us in this. Poland isn't paying reparations, we are, and they acknowledged this even in OTL (The British and Italians especially.).
Also, I'd like to urge people to consider this: diplomacy with the Poles will have no bearing on the results of the plebiscite. The only way we could derail it was if we sent Freikorps there to prevent them from voting. The organization that ended up deciding who kept what was the LoN, not us or the Polish.
That type of wholehearted belief in our cause is what we would need for our interests in Silesia to be actually protected through the League of Nations. When the League of Nations ceasefire came time to be enforced irl, they got the equivalent of a brigade of soldiers to do so. That is totally inadequate. The basic situation here has not been changed by the delay in reparations payments.
You are right it doesn't have results on the plebiscite directly. What it does do is hopefully prevent the Poles from funneling aid, arms, agitators, and coordinators for 5 months through which local Polish agitators and rebels would be infinitely more capable of influencing the people of Upper Silesia in favor of the Polish cause which would then through one degree of separation hugely influence the referendum. The League didn't decide jack shit on the ground. They may have facilitated the referendum, but the people on the ground are who decided the referendum which very much is ourselves and the Polish. Accordingly it would be best to weaken the Polish as much as possible by cutting them from aid from Poland proper.
You are right it doesn't have results on the plebiscite directly. What it does do is hopefully prevent the Poles from funneling aid, arms, agitators, and coordinators for 5 months through which local Polish agitators and rebels would be infinitely more capable of influencing the people of Upper Silesia in favor of the Polish cause which would then through one degree of separation hugely influence the referendum. The League didn't decide jack shit on the ground. They may have facilitated the referendum, but the people on the ground are who decided the referendum which very much is ourselves and the Polish. Accordingly it would be best to weaken the Polish as much as possible by cutting them from aid from Poland proper.
This does nothing to change the outcome of the vote, and I'd argue the Polish agitators hurt their cause more than they help. As I said before, the referendum is totally irrelevant, it is extremely doubtful it will go our way unless we take extreme measures. Our only hope in keeping Silesia is the LoN, they didn't decide things on the ground, but it was they that concluded this whole business. If they say Upper Silesia is Polish, there is nothing we can do. If they rule in our favour, our neighbors can complain and send agitators all they want, but we'll keep administration of the area. Anyway, let's agree to disagree, I don't see us convincing each other of what is right in our opinion. I still think the opportunity cost is not worth it.
I don't see any prospects for negotiations with the Poles. The creation of their own state and its rapid militarization create a society that is not ready to negotiate. The leader of such a state is the corresponding Jozef Pilsudski. The country is formed by armed groups and is still functioning within this framework.
It would be strange to hope for an easy normalization of relations with them or something comparable. Poles will begin to understand that not all problems can be solved with a rifle when they form a full-fledged government and understand the limits of the army's capabilities, but right now the Polish Sejm wants at least (lol) to seize huge territories from Romania to the Baltic States back.
Given the fact that Sverdlov survived, then no political struggle will be essentially impossible. He is a proponent of centralizing power in the Central Committee and reducing the power of the SNK. Hmm, in short, there are three lines of power in the RSFSR :the "Party Line", the "Soviet Line", and the "Line of bureaucrats". Stalin relied on the bureaucrats and was only slightly strong in the party, gradually strengthening himself. Sverdlov is an absolute authority in the party and is strong in two other areas.
Regarding relations with the future of the USSR (it is not even formed and its form is not defined, because how exactly to solve the issue of autonomies within the USSR and their rights is not clear with the living Sverdlovsk), we can probably start with the forgiveness of the credits of the Russian Empire, which we still will not receive. And in Moscow, this will be appreciated as a gesture of benevolence. At the moment, Moscow is in a severe crisis, which is only growing, and fact that we recognize the government of communism will clearly play a role inside them as a propaganda factor and for us as a sales market. However, they can not sell grain, they have very little of it. But they have gold and quite a lot, as well as art objects.
Yes, but that won't step rebels, strikers, drains on our resources and threats to our peace. Polish agitation may not be possibly successful, but that doesn't change the irritation it can provide.
Yes, but that won't step rebels, strikers, drains on our resources and threats to our peace. Polish agitation may not be possibly successful, but that doesn't change the irritation it can provide.
If the referendum goes our way (which it won't), there isn't much point for the Polish government to spend money on them. Even so, we could just do that option in the future. Anyway, this is pointless to discuss since it's clear what the thread wants.
Given the way that votes have shifted, I'll wait for another five hours or so and then close votes. I might have an update to drop today, at least for the econ/treasury bits or something.
In the meantime, along with voting and discussion, let me know if you want prompts for sidestories. Tentative reward policy for them is a choice of a small dice bonus (one reward per die per snip), information OOC on other bits of the world, or in some cases a nudge of your choice for events ongoing elsewhere, e.g. a slight boost to the anarchist risings ongoing in Italy. If you like the proposed structure I can drop some prompts in thread this evening.
This seems like a good system! Have you thought a policy for the ones that have already been made? Depending on what the prompts are, I might write up something tomorrow as well.
Given the way that votes have shifted, I'll wait for another five hours or so and then close votes. I might have an update to drop today, at least for the econ/treasury bits or something.
In the meantime, along with voting and discussion, let me know if you want prompts for sidestories. Tentative reward policy for them is a choice of a small dice bonus (one reward per die per snip), information OOC on other bits of the world, or in some cases a nudge of your choice for events ongoing elsewhere, e.g. a slight boost to the anarchist risings ongoing in Italy. If you like the proposed structure I can drop some prompts in thread this evening.
[] Good Faith Negotiations
-[] Treasury
--[] x2 Bailouts: The banks are collapsing thanks to a combination of reparations payments causing a loss of faith in German bonds, bad war debt, and the debts incurred by companies that were badly hit by the civil war. The banks need their bad debt taken on and they need a cash infusion – an emergency redemption of government war debt will do the trick and moreover increase the stability of the currency. DC30. Raises currency stability, prevents bank collapse. Costs 25 Budget.
--[] Partial Nationalization: Many industries are debt-ridden and thanks to the occupation of their Ruhr or Westphalian or Hanoverian facilities cannot pay their debts – the KPD may have pulled back but spinning those back up is difficult. The companies cannot pay and we will have to take a stake in them to take on the bad debt – a bad beginning for an independent Reichsbank, but a necessary one. Some of the greatest industrial names in Germany are on the line – such as Bayer, for instance, had dyeworks and factories in what was KPD territory that are now damaged and needing rebuilding. DC30. Forestalls a corporate debt collapse by taking on bad debt and a stake in the affected companes. Costs 20 Budget. Further action required for recovery. Economic stabilization grants Stability.
-[] Justice
--[] x2 The Trials (0/100): The Ministry of Justice has to bring the case against the putschists and the KPD, both of the parties that rose up against the republic and sparked a five-month civil war. This will be critical, and the longer the trials drag on the worse things will get in terms of allowing the far-right a platform and risking martyring the KPD leadership – we cannot afford either case. That means speed and skill, and in the face of an uncooperative judiciary no less. All we can hope for is that the civil war has angered the judges more than the existence of the republic. And for some of the old traditionalists in the judiciary, that is indeed possible. Rolls below 20 on any die assigned to this cause a backlash/event. High rolls give bonuses to stability and deradicalization.
--[] The Silesian Sore: Silesia is seeing a full blown insurgency and the troops of Freikorps Oberland that have been used for internal security there are acting in a manner that would exacerbate things. We need to get the province in line and use the courts to do so legally while sending in the federal police and – perhaps or, perhaps and – the army. DC35. Stabilizes Silesia a little, enforcing guidelines for law enforcement and purging the local police forces as needed to maintain stability.
-[] Interior
--[] x2 Plebiscite on Prussia: We have to run the plebiscite for the breakup of Prussia, and that means we have to make sure the vote is free and fair in spite of paramilitaries, right-wing parties and the army. It'll be a chancy thing, but a victory here will be a vindication of the republic and beneficial for federalism in the long term – the Prussian tail cannot be allowed to wag the German dog. DC60.
--[]Reparations: We can pay back the reparations in kind as well as cash, although that means risking the destabilization of the economy as we take commodities out of circulation to hand them to the French. While the Allies have agreed to an incentive payment of five marks per ton of delivered coal and are willing to heavily credit us for deliveries of machinery, they also want hard currency. Badly. And the French Army has made noises about marching out of its bridgehead to the Ruhr if those demands are not met.
--- 20+8(×5=40) = 28 Budget, 60 reparations.
-[] Foreign
--[] x2 Reparations Renegotiation: The reparations payment schedule is being negotiated in London and it might be a good idea to send Rathenau across and make sure that the post-civil-war republic has a voice. It isn't one that will be listened to or listened to with any sympathy at least, but at least we shall be there. And perhaps we can make our case – we cannot argue with force anymore, and we therefore have to make do with words. DC70/90/140, present for two turns, results each turn determine reparations payment schedule.
--[]Across the Alps: While we haven't had much contact with the Swiss and the Austrians, we can at least spare them some attention while reaching out to Italy – Italy wants arms and is willing to trade in kind and in a small amount of hard currency, while we have artillery to dispose of. Heavy artillery. I think that we can make a deal, says Gustav Krupp, and the Minister is inclined to believe him. Sells the heavy guns to Italy. Roll determines payment. Payment floored at 5 Budget one time, and the rest of it in food or in Italian assets.
-[] Defense
--[] The Deutsche Bahn Study (0/50): The army is an odd way to accomplish nationalization of the railways, but it's certainly something that the army would not mind. Having a direct line to the railway authorities and potential control over national railways in exchange for backing nationalization is fine by them, and the army's railway experts are the same men that managed the wartime logistics – there are few better. Allows nationalization of railways and establishment of a national Reichsbahn/Deutsche Bahn on completion. Mollifies the army a little.
--[] x2 Crackdowns: The army can act as a backup for Special Branch investigations of KPD insurgent cells, and that would be something they are very willing and able to do. While it's a bit heavy handed, it at least gets them out out of our hair in Westphalia, at least somewhat. With them somewhat occupied, that's less voter intimidation. DC40 to find something, below 10 is a shooting.
Discussion seems to have closed, to votes are now closed as well.
Winning plan:
[X] Und weil der Mensch ein Mensch ist
-[X] Treasury
--[X] x2 Bailouts: The banks are collapsing thanks to a combination of reparations payments causing a loss of faith in German bonds, bad war debt, and the debts incurred by companies that were badly hit by the civil war. The banks need their bad debt taken on and they need a cash infusion – an emergency redemption of government war debt will do the trick and moreover increase the stability of the currency. DC30. Raises currency stability, prevents bank collapse. Costs 25 Budget. --[X] Partial Nationalization: Many industries are debt-ridden and thanks to the occupation of their Ruhr or Westphalian or Hanoverian facilities cannot pay their debts – the KPD may have pulled back but spinning those back up is difficult. The companies cannot pay and we will have to take a stake in them to take on the bad debt – a bad beginning for an independent Reichsbank, but a necessary one. Some of the greatest industrial names in Germany are on the line – such as Bayer, for instance, had dyeworks and factories in what was KPD territory that are now damaged and needing rebuilding. DC30. Forestalls a corporate debt collapse by taking on bad debt and a stake in the affected companes. Costs 20 Budget. Further action required for recovery. Economic stabilization grants Stability. -[X] Justice
--[X] x2 The Trials (0/100): The Ministry of Justice has to bring the case against the putschists and the KPD, both of the parties that rose up against the republic and sparked a five-month civil war. This will be critical, and the longer the trials drag on the worse things will get in terms of allowing the far-right a platform and risking martyring the KPD leadership – we cannot afford either case. That means speed and skill, and in the face of an uncooperative judiciary no less. All we can hope for is that the civil war has angered the judges more than the existence of the republic. And for some of the old traditionalists in the judiciary, that is indeed possible. Rolls below 20 on any die assigned to this cause a backlash/event. High rolls give bonuses to stability and deradicalization. --[X] The Silesian Sore: Silesia is seeing a full blown insurgency and the troops of Freikorps Oberland that have been used for internal security there are acting in a manner that would exacerbate things. We need to get the province in line and use the courts to do so legally while sending in the federal police and – perhaps or, perhaps and – the army. DC35. Stabilizes Silesia a little, enforcing guidelines for law enforcement and purging the local police forces as needed to maintain stability. -[X] Interior
--[X] x2 Plebiscite on Prussia: We have to run the plebiscite for the breakup of Prussia, and that means we have to make sure the vote is free and fair in spite of paramilitaries, right-wing parties and the army. It'll be a chancy thing, but a victory here will be a vindication of the republic and beneficial for federalism in the long term – the Prussian tail cannot be allowed to wag the German dog. DC60. --[X] Reparations: We can pay back the reparations in kind as well as cash, although that means risking the destabilization of the economy as we take commodities out of circulation to hand them to the French. While the Allies have agreed to an incentive payment of five marks per ton of delivered coal and are willing to heavily credit us for deliveries of machinery, they also want hard currency. Badly. And the French Army has made noises about marching out of its bridgehead to the Ruhr if those demands are not met. ---[X] 20+5(×5=25) = 25 Budget, 45 reparations. -[X] Foreign
--[X] x2 Reparations Renegotiation: The reparations payment schedule is being negotiated in London and it might be a good idea to send Rathenau across and make sure that the post-civil-war republic has a voice. It isn't one that will be listened to or listened to with any sympathy at least, but at least we shall be there. And perhaps we can make our case – we cannot argue with force anymore, and we therefore have to make do with words. DC70/90/140, present for two turns, results each turn determine reparations payment schedule. --[X]Capitalizing on Poland: The Poles are relying on German arms to win out against the Soviets at present, and we can use that to pressure them to cease aiding underground groups in Silesia and East Prussia – and then use the army on the undergrounds. Not the most savory of tactics, but it might work as long as the Poles cooperate. As long as the Poles are rational about it all. DC30. Attempts to get Poland to stop backing insurgencies. -[X] Defense
--[X] The Deutsche Bahn Study (0/50): The army is an odd way to accomplish nationalization of the railways, but it's certainly something that the army would not mind. Having a direct line to the railway authorities and potential control over national railways in exchange for backing nationalization is fine by them, and the army's railway experts are the same men that managed the wartime logistics – there are few better. Allows nationalization of railways and establishment of a national Reichsbahn/Deutsche Bahn on completion. Mollifies the army a little. --[X] x2 Crackdowns: The army can act as a backup for Special Branch investigations of KPD insurgent cells, and that would be something they are very willing and able to do. While it's a bit heavy handed, it at least gets them out out of our hair in Westphalia, at least somewhat. With them somewhat occupied, that's less voter intimidation. DC40 to find something, below 10 is a shooting.
--[X] x2 Bailouts: The banks are collapsing thanks to a combination of reparations payments causing a loss of faith in German bonds, bad war debt, and the debts incurred by companies that were badly hit by the civil war. The banks need their bad debt taken on and they need a cash infusion – an emergency redemption of government war debt will do the trick and moreover increase the stability of the currency. DC30. Raises currency stability, prevents bank collapse. Costs 25 Budget.
Rolled: terriblewriter: 2D100 → 97( (52 +45) )
Report to the Chancellery
Progress Update on Bank Rescues, 1920
Abstract: This report is intended to brief the Chancellery and the members of the Reichstag on the recently authorized bank rescue program intended to prevent the banking system of the territories that were occupied in the civil war from collapsing. The banks of western Germany are a combination of large entities that have national scale and operations abroad such as Commerzbank, and the smaller regional and savings banks that serve the majority of German consumers. Per the directive from the Reichstag, the Reichsbank has prioritized the bailout and rescue of the smaller consumer savings banks and cooperative banks such as Raffeisen before dealing with entities such as Commerzbank. While the extension of cheap credit backed by the Reichsbank to the smaller banks in Germany has allowed them to continue operations and a government guarantee on deposits has further aided in the prevention of a catastrophic bank run, we note that specie withdrawals and hoarding are increasing in scope. The monetary injection into the banking system has not helped that, leading as it has to further inflation – the Reichsbank will have to raise rates or the government will have to act to soak up excess papiermarks, before the inflationary spiral moves out of control. We also note that specie hoarding and a lack of specie backing the currency is further fueling a loss of faith in it. We have rescued the banking system from collapse, but the currency is far from rescued.
--[X] Partial Nationalization: Many industries are debt-ridden and thanks to the occupation of their Ruhr or Westphalian or Hanoverian facilities cannot pay their debts – the KPD may have pulled back but spinning those back up is difficult. The companies cannot pay and we will have to take a stake in them to take on the bad debt – a bad beginning for an independent Reichsbank, but a necessary one. Some of the greatest industrial names in Germany are on the line – such as Bayer, for instance, had dyeworks and factories in what was KPD territory that are now damaged and needing rebuilding. DC30. Forestalls a corporate debt collapse by taking on bad debt and a stake in the affected companes. Costs 20 Budget. Further action required for recovery. Economic stabilization grants Stability.
Rolled: terriblewriter: 1D100 → 92( (92) )
On the Debt Nationalization Plan
A Report by the Reichsbank to the Chancellery
Abstract: The civil war that began in March of 1920 resulted in KPD forces controlling the Ruhrgebeit for most of the war, from March to the end of July until a surrender was reached with the local commander – we note that there are still KPD insurgent cells in the area and the leadership of the rising have left Germany with no armistice reached. The war allowed the KPD to seize without compensation the industrial heartland of Germany, nationalizing it and operating it under a quota system of production with compensation distributed directly among the workers. We note that purging of management staff and the militant reaction of many of the Catholic trade unionists in the Ruhrgebeit had a more palpable effect on wartime productivity in the area than the flight of much of the senior management. The plants were thus unable to meet the demands of the war due to the KPD being unable to import sufficient feedstock, sabotage by pro-republican or far-right elements, and severe food shortages in the area thanks to import of food from Denmark and the Netherlands not being an option – the former supplies were secured by the republic and the latter already committed the bulk of its harvest to the American relief program in northern France and Belgium.
This situation meant that the Ruhr and northwestern Germany was devastated by the war even with the lack of high-intensity warfare, and the same issues combined with the high-intensity back-and-forth of the war along Westphalia and the Elbe means that those regions saw worse. A large number of prominent firms in Germany have had their assets seized and damaged, and are unable to make effective repairs to them postwar due to a lack of funds. The papiermark is also depreciating against the dollar, making imports more expensive – imported goods are needed for repair and reconditioning of the industrial zones, and are also needed for manufacturing to restart. We have thus decided to relieve the financial burden among the corporations that are in danger of collapse by redemption of war bonds that were held by them and by extending credit from the Reichsbank at the cost of the government acquiring a stake in the companies in question. The low interest rates imposed by the Reichsbank and the increase in the money supply that this leads to can spur further inflation in the papiermark, but that is at present a secondary consideration to the issue of rebuilding Germany's devastated west.
However, we note that some of the industrialists of the Ruhr have rejected the government's offer and are attempting to go it alone. The industrialists in question are led by Fritz Thyssen and are attempting to form a cartel for the production of steel in the Ruhr Valley. This initiative is not likely to succeed, but at the same time the republic cannot stop Thyssen's folly – all we can do is stand by to pick up the pieces when this Vereinigte Stahlwerke inevitably runs into its more effective competitors.
Competition for Thyssen comes from those backing Gustav Krupp, who has taken the government loan with both hands and made an interesting offer to the Ministry of Defense. Krupp and roughly a third of the other Schlotbarone of the Ruhr are in opposition to Thyssen, and see the military victory of the republic as a proof of its legitimacy. Gustav Krupp is willing to act as an aid to rearmament in exchange for government support of his activities, namely government funding laundered through Switzerland for the acquisition of Oerlikon AG and the bailout of his investment in the Wilhelmshaven yards through the repair and rebuilding of the Reichsmarine. If we make this commitment, we will not need another potentially disruptive bailout in the Ruhr – Krupp and his fellow magnates will handle Thyssen and the other hardliners for us.
The last offer that the state must consider is that of the bankrupt Bayer, the near-bankrupt Hoechst and the more prosperous BASF. BASF and Agfa have proposed to form a cartel for price regulation and have strongarmed Bayer and Hoechst into it due to the latter firms' parlous situation, and should the government allow the formation of this chemical cartel we will not be required to bail out the companies. Thus the formation of this 'Interessengemeinschaft Farbenindustrie' will hopefully prevent more inflation due to the increase in the money supply. The Krupp Offer: In exchange for further government funding allocated to his company and a commitment to use the Reichsmarinewerft for the rebuilding of the navy, Krupp has mentioned that his new friend Sir Basil might be induced to aid in the acquisition of SWO (Schweizerische Werkzeugmaschinenfabrik Oerlikon) in Switzerland. The government funding will also go to keeping German subsidiaries in the Netherlands and Austria afloat, allowing a window to the world.
[]Yes: This will cost another 10 Budget from next turn's total, one-time, and you will have to commission one coastal battleship to keep the yards in operation within four turns.
[]No
The Farbenwerke: Due to the global situation making importation of German goods rather difficult and the ravages of the war – the civil war more than the Great War – leading to the devastation of much of Germany's famed chemical industry, they want to form a cartel. This new cartel will leverage the dominance of German chemical industries (apart from America, the industrialists don't really appreciate mentions of Du Pont) internationally and keep the troubled companies afloat without government intervention. This does, however, create a massive corporate entity that the state will have to tangle with on occasion.
[]Yes: Gain 5 Budget next turn one-time, the chemical sector will recover faster. Expect a stronger chemical sector internationally for now. The new cartel will be an assertive entity domestically and has to be handled now and again.
[]No: The corporations are bailed out and kept separate for now, and the bosses will be a tad resentful. Expect more donations to the opposition and a disinclination to work with the SPD. AN: A short update that I will follow with a Gustav Krupp PoV, keeping the low level and high level separate after some feedback from the previous thread. That way if one wants to skip the perspective story bits they can do so more easily.
Yes. This isn't as complex as turn plans and the thread has been good on discussion so far, so I think that voting while discussing is viable right now.
Def yes to the second. We need national champion industries that are internationally competitive enough to earn the hard currency we need to maybe not collapse our economy.
[X] Yes: This will cost another 10 Budget from next turn's total, one-time, and you will have to commission one coastal battleship to keep the yards in operation within four turns. [X] Yes: Gain 5 Budget next turn one-time, the chemical sector will recover faster. Expect a stronger chemical sector internationally for now. The new cartel will be an assertive entity domestically and has to be handled now and again.
I'm not particularly happy with either of these, but it is looking like we can't afford to not take these in the short term regardless of any long term concerns. This is one of those situations where we have to risk hurting ourselves in the future to try and ensure that there is a future at all.
