Alright so what you are really trying to look at there isn't physics. Its statistics. Statistically, the more rolls we have to make, the more likely it is for those rolls to converge on the average. Which means the more dice we roll, the more likely the results are to be average, not extreme one way or the other. Now that's without various bonuses or penalties of course, but we don't really know what those are so can't account for them properly.
Chronicles of Nations - Civ Quest
- Thread starter Oshha
- Start date
- Original
Alright so what you are really trying to look at there isn't physics. Its statistics. Statistically, the more rolls we have to make, the more likely it is for those rolls to converge on the average. Which means the more dice we roll, the more likely the results are to be average, not extreme one way or the other. Now that's without various bonuses or penalties of course, but we don't really know what those are so can't account for them properly.
- Location
- United States
This all seems like a bunch of word salad and I'm not even sure you fully understand what you're typing (at least in the second paragraph), so I'm going to focus on the first paragraph.
This is not a catastrophic loss; this is a mistake we made and are now rectifying. People make mistakes. Civilizations make mistakes. We move on from it and try not to make the same mistakes moving forward.
The mistake in this instance was twofold: The first mistake was in even taking a vassal by conquest, as having a population of people ruled over by distant foreign overlords is ripe grounds for rebellion. (or in this case declarations of independence)
The second mistake was in not properly making use of our resources. We had the option to get any type of hero, and instead of getting one that is useful to the situation at hand (aka the Diplo hero), voters instead decided to get the Admin hero for reasons I frankly still don't understand. If we had a Diplo hero, this whole situation could have been averted and success could be made from failure. This did not happen however, so we must make do with what we have.
If we as a thread can collectively learn from this mistake, then I will consider this a good lesson and a worthy use of our time and resources.
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From what i understand by taking Maradysh out of the picture or are controlling them there are far less unpredictables as the option they take cannot harm us and will mostly help us if integrated correctly ( look Merthyr ).
By letting them go we are giving ourselves to the chance as we cannot control their behaviour, SV often isn't consistent in its strategys and it isn't guaranteed that we will dedicate significant resources to diplomance them or if we do that something unpredictable won't happen as since they are free dice and narrative gives them far more possibilities to happen wich we can't or won't affect.
Basically by giving them freedom we are letting ourselves to a chance and a dice, yes we have better relationship but in a far less controlled environment and anything can happen.
This makes them becoming a threat statistically far greater than if we control them.
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The choice isn't about whether we let them go or we don't.
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He had voted for sending an army , and he explained why he did it. So for him it is.
Statistically his reasoning is sound as everything he said is true.
Basically to explain it once more, you can say that we will diplo them, but ultimately you must say it in such way that you will have entire thread on board to do it or better said a good majority, if you can't guarantee that you are just letting them go and setting another variable to the field while hoping for the best.
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- Location
- Leeds
Small correction. The mistake here was either
a) taking a vassal where the infrastructure didn't allow us to easily enforce our power
b) taking a vassal when we don't want to spend actions on the using the military to enforce our control rather than expand econ or tech.
or c) The decision was actually fine, the dice gods just had it in for us with our low roll for support, their bad value and them getting a mil hero, any of those three conditions changing could have altered the situation, two certainly would have.
saying taking a vassal by conquest is just suboptimal is pretty much saying that you are smarter than ten thousand years of human history, and whenever someone says that you need to question if theres been a mistaken assumption or the person is really arrogant. I trust that Oshha has set up the system well enough that war mongering is a valid strategy... just perhaps not before we get metal tools.
Our choices are:
1) Our army die in the field.
2) They rebel and may involve our army dying in the field. Our relation is bad.
3) Our army is not dying on the field and our relation is neutral to good.
None of our choices involved the successful subjugation of our vassal.
Actually we could roll well and end up winning because our army's ten times bigger than theirs and we got lucky. It's just not worth gambling on.
- Location
- Southampton, Great Britain
- Pronouns
- He/Him
A couple of corrections, it was the high roll for support that really made things worse for you as you helped them rebuild/develop without them liking you and their value was something determined by me, the QM, and not the dice rolls. Furthermore, the fact they disliked you is because of player choices and not dice rolls. I didn't roll for Maradysh opinion of the People, I just decided that since you killed 5% of their population before conquering them, they would hate your guts.
Secondly, while war mongering can be a valid strategy, it isn't a necessarily one that will work for any civ nor it is always the best strategy.
Your army isn't ten times bigger. It is about four or fives bigger if you include the Merntir warriors as being part of your army.
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- United States
You can note if you read what I said more thoroughly that I never mentioned whether something was optimal or not, I said that it was a mistake.
The most "optimal" thing to do would have been to settle in the lowlands and become a martial focused slaver nation at the start of the quest, as that was the MO of many of the major ancient empires.
@Oshha has mentioned several times now that is civ is built for tall play, rather than wide, although that can change if we really want it to like everything else. I would appreciate it if you refrain from putting words in my mouth in the future though, thanks.
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Nope, you are just assuming the worst and pushing your point of view.
If none of the choices involve subjugation of our vassals they wouldn't be on the table.
Everything you just said involve us having a really bad rolls and having everything go wrong for us while everything goes well for them.
Our choices are:
1. We send an army and begin a war
2. We ignore the problem
3. We simply letc them go
Now if we send an army we do have a good chances of winning because while they have advantage now they can't lead a long war. Once finished we are starting at badder relationship but in more controlled environment and we need to invest long term to improve our relationship.
Ignoring the problem is basically choosing a mystery option.
Letting them go is giving it up for better relationship, but in order for it to work we need to invest long term in less controlled environment.
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Omegahugger
Inattentive Idiot
No matter what side you are arguing for, our choices were X, Y and Z.
At this point our bed has been made, and I for one am looking forward to catching some sleep.
*It is ten to midnight Danish time*
At this point our bed has been made, and I for one am looking forward to catching some sleep.
*It is ten to midnight Danish time*
- Location
- California
I suppose so, no matter what I say people won't change their minds and that is OK. I'm interested in the result of this turn and the continuation of this quest. I admit that I'm contentions however that's part of why we are having discussion yes?
We're sending an army against a hero with the advantage of terrain and troop types. I admit we might win, but the victory will be a pyrrhic one that isn't worth the loss of our soldiers. It will be a vassal that is very weak, hate our gut, and require lot of investment to bring it back up.
So we let them go. Let them do their own thing. A kingdom will rise and fall. Establish good relation so we have an in with them. Bide our time.
- Location
- yorkshire
sometimes the winning move is not to play
- Location
- United States
The best part of being a QM is being able to tease your players about updates
Knight Draco
Tea Sipping Advocate of the Devil
- Location
- North America
Tfw the new cadlon becomes our new cadlon.
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Not really as Arthwyd domesticated those cats on their own, it was a players voice and Yarm that made people believe cats are from the Goddess .
Basically just a normal cats.
- Location
- Southampton, Great Britain
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Close, but not quite.
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- Space
Marriage?
Omegahugger
Inattentive Idiot
... My shipper senses are tingling.
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You are not the only one.