Even with throwing near everything at education, I feel getting Partial Compulsory in 9 turns is gonna be a struggle.
Decided to try to estimate the progress that Partial Compulsory and Nationwide Compulsory will require:
We've currently got 6 Services dice, courtesy of our last round of Ministerial recruitment. Over 3 years and 9 turns, with an average progress per die of 50.5, we can expect on average ~2700 progress in Services overall.
We presently need 239 progress to complete Peloponnese Primary Schools Stage 4, 127 progress to complete Liberated Territories Primary Schools Stage 2, and 218 progress to complete Secondary Schools Stage 2. Once we've completed those projects, we'll need 1 more Peloponnese Primary School stage for both projects, 2 Liberated Territories stages in Partial Compulsory and 3 in Nationwide Compulsory, 1 stage of Advanced Education in both, and 1 more stage of Secondary Education under Nationwide Compulsory.
Ok, with that established we'll want to try and estimate the progress requirements for each project.
Peloponnese Primary Schools had staged progress requirements that looked like this:
Stage 1: 150
Stage 2: 200
Stage 3: 300
Stage 4: ????
Stage 5: ????
However, the costs of Stage 3 dropped to 250 after the New Arizona war, probably due to the Expanded Book Production project.
Currently the staged costs of Peloponnese Primary Schools are/were:
Stage 1: 150
Stage 2: 200
Stage 3: 250 <- cost reduction hits here
Stage 4: 325
Stage 5: ????
I think the best estimate for the price of Stage 5 Peloponnese Primary Schools is 400-500, based on a purely vibes-based assessment of the above numbers.
It also look like the Liberated Territories progression is following the original progression rather than a theoretical cost-reduced progression, so I'm going to project each stages price using an advanced statistical technique called
guessing:
Stage 1: 150
Stage 2: 200
Stage 3: 300
Stage 4: ???? (400)
Stage 5: ???? (500)
With these extremely accurate numbers that were definitely not pulled entirely from thin air, we can see that, since we need to fully complete Stages 4 and 5 of Peloponnese Primary Schools and Stages 2 - 4/5 of Liberated Territories Primary Schools, we need:
239 + 450? = ~689 progress for the Peloponnese in either case
127 + 300? + 400? +
500? = 827 progress for the Liberated Territories in the Partial Compulsory case, or
1327 progress in the Nationwide case.
In total that's:
1516 total progress under the Partial Compulsory case, or
2016 total progress under the Nationwide Compulsory case
Adding in Secondary Schools, we need 218 progress to complete Secondary Schools Phase 2, so that gives us:
1734 total progress under the Partial Compulsory case
We also don't know the progress requirements of Secondary Schools Stage 3, but the pattern thus far has been:
Stage 1: 150
Stage 2: 250
My monkey-brain wants to follow the obvious sequence and say it'll be 350 for Stage 3, but lets be pessimistic and call it 400. That puts us at:
2634 total progress under the Nationwide Compulsory case.
Thus far I haven't taken into account the Advanced Education stage we need as well, so that could (probably) be somewhere between 100 and 300 additional progress on both cases. We'll put it in the middle and call it 200 progress, which bring us to my final and definitely extremely accurate estimate of:
1934 progress required for the Partial Compulsory commitment, and
2834 progress required for the Nationwide Compulsory commitment
per Anydice, we've got a nearly 100% shot of completing the Partial Compulsory commitment with just the 54 (6 dice x 9 turns) Services dice we'll have available this plan, while only around a 30% chance of completing the Nationwide Compulsory commitment without spending Free Dice on Services.
Overall I'm less bullish on Nationwide Compulsory than I was when I started this effortpost, let me know what you think and please feel free to point out any glaring mathematical or statistical errors that I've made.
