Hypothetical Initial OpFor Analysis
Assuming we get the memo and form an intelligence unit next week, here's a take on what they would come up with regarding the aliens. Spoiler: "Not much, please get us something to work with before asking again."
From: IUN-PKF-XCOM-Intelligence
To: IUN-PKF-XCOM-HighCom
Att: IUN-PKF-XCOM-Usea, IUN-PKF-XCOM-Osea, IUN-PKF-XCOM-Anea, IUN-PKF-XCOM-Verusa, IUN-PKF-XCOM-Liaison Office
Subject: Intelligence Briefing, 2/7/2020
Report 1: Initial Speculation Regarding Primary Opposing Force's Strategic Goals and Capabilities
Before we begin, we must emphasis that all analysis possible at this time ultimately amounts to pure speculation. The invaders (hereby referred to as OpFor) are complete unknowns beyond what has been demonstrated on the battlefield, and we have had no meaningful communication with them outside of their monodirectional psionic broadcasts regarding their contempt of our defiance. As we have so far been unable to recover let alone access any form of computer systems, this is the best we have so far.
Force Numbers
Given the size of the OpFor' Mothership, it could easily house enough forces to simply blitz the world's military forces in a single operation. That OpFor have not done so indicates that they either do not have these forces, or that they are so contemptuous of our capabilities that they do not feel the need to do so. As the later option make any long term victory against them exceedingly unlikely, we have instead chosen to focus our efforts on the former. Supporting this theory, the most recent analysis by the Research Division of recovered OpFor wrecks show that their construction dates are overwhelmingly no more than 2 months prior to the start of hostilities, with the majority of the outliers consisting of craft from the first attack wave or piloted by their various Aces. Thus, we are led to believe that OpFor's forces predominantly consist of units that have been produced in situ, using the Motherships no doubt prodigious industrial capability to turn the resources harvested from debris cloud around it and hydrogen taken from Strangereal's oceans into combat platforms.
Industrial Capabilities
Speculation regarding OpFor's production limits would be just that; speculation. We do not know enough about their industrial methods make even the barest estimation, and they are all but certain to be in the process of expanding their capabilities, if only to expedite how much time it takes to bring the planet's infrastructure up to their standards after their assumed victory. This is supported by the increasing force numbers and total unit weight we are seeing each wave, as they either reactivate existing facilities or finish constructing new ones.
Force Capabilities
Despite their obvious technological advantage OpFor has over us, their ability to apply it has proven to be mixed at best. Their current roster appears to consist of craft that were originally designed for peer opponents in orbital combat, and their impressment into atmospheric use has diminished their performance substantially, particularly in regards to their effective combat range. The ability for kinetic weapons to shake them to pieces is an understandable design compromised once this is taken into account, but it is certain that OpFor will alter their production lines to address it. Other failings, such as drone programming, will also be addressed as time goes on, increasing their capabilities as we adapt to fight them.
While OpFor's possession of an equivalent of the Active Protection System was an unpleasant surprise, its initial effectiveness was greatly hampered by the failing of their ship's power generators. As this is certain to be the first thing they rectify, we must acquire direct counters, with the obvious move being to reverse engineer OpFor's own anti-shield weaponry. As analysis is still ongoing with those wrecks, so the complexity of this task is unknown at this time.
There has been much speculation regarding the grossly haphazard skill level of the OpFor's units. The drones have a ready made excuse of being hyper-optimised, but their manned craft are at times embarrassing to fly against. With only a handful of exceptions, OpFor pilots have so far demonstrated such a deficit of piloting skills that they would have never graduated from a Strangereal flight school, let alone sent onto the battlefield. Their Aces demonstrate that they are not, as an institution, complete novices in regards to atmospheric combat, so this shear disparity if frankly baffling from a conventional viewpoint. The current assumption, based on what Research Division has managed to work out, is that the majority of their man power consists of cloned servitors, which makes the skill shortfall due to either flaws in the mental programing or a simple lack of interest.
Strategic Aims
One of the open questions is why OpFor decided to begin the war immediately upon arrival, rather than linger in the outer system and build up their forces. We speculate that they were either unwilling or unable to do so, with factors ranging from internal political dynamics to some form of technical limitation. Assuming that OpFor is fundamentally sane (as we understand it), we believe that it was some form of physical limitation that forced them into 'rushing things', with our best guess being that the energy requirements of their drive system limited how much of their production capability could be utilized. However, this area is where we are least grounded by observed facts, making it easily possible that we are wrong. In all likelihood, we are unlikely to know for sure unless we somehow acquire testimony by their command elements or records of their deliberations, both of which are easier said than done.
Perhaps the greater question is why OpFor is fighting this war in the first place. In that regard, we have absolutely no firm basis to work from, with our own history providing no end of reasons to do so. Our knowledge of their society is in all practical terms negative, with human norms being inapplicable.
Conclusion
All of these factors together indicate that that the OpFor started the current war 'half cocked', without large reserves of well trained and well equipped forces. Their current forces are merely what could be fabricated in situ, and have no value attached to them outside of cold strategic calculus. Their Aces would then represent the standing military forces that were brought with them, and may or may not represent the quality of force that we would go up against if they were meaningfully reinforced. Assuming they maintain the will to fight, they will be able to sustain this war indefinitely, and unless we manage to force attrition on par with their production, they will grow increasingly more capable as time goes on.
Until we obtain meaningful sources of intelligence, all we can offer regarding OpFor is speculation. In the meantime, it is likely that we will accomplish more by monitoring potential collaborators, if only to know which state is the most likely to be become a puppet after Belka.
From: IUN-PKF-XCOM-Intelligence
To: IUN-PKF-XCOM-HighCom
Att: IUN-PKF-XCOM-Usea, IUN-PKF-XCOM-Osea, IUN-PKF-XCOM-Anea, IUN-PKF-XCOM-Verusa, IUN-PKF-XCOM-Liaison Office
Subject: Intelligence Briefing, 2/7/2020
Report 1: Initial Speculation Regarding Primary Opposing Force's Strategic Goals and Capabilities
Before we begin, we must emphasis that all analysis possible at this time ultimately amounts to pure speculation. The invaders (hereby referred to as OpFor) are complete unknowns beyond what has been demonstrated on the battlefield, and we have had no meaningful communication with them outside of their monodirectional psionic broadcasts regarding their contempt of our defiance. As we have so far been unable to recover let alone access any form of computer systems, this is the best we have so far.
Force Numbers
Given the size of the OpFor' Mothership, it could easily house enough forces to simply blitz the world's military forces in a single operation. That OpFor have not done so indicates that they either do not have these forces, or that they are so contemptuous of our capabilities that they do not feel the need to do so. As the later option make any long term victory against them exceedingly unlikely, we have instead chosen to focus our efforts on the former. Supporting this theory, the most recent analysis by the Research Division of recovered OpFor wrecks show that their construction dates are overwhelmingly no more than 2 months prior to the start of hostilities, with the majority of the outliers consisting of craft from the first attack wave or piloted by their various Aces. Thus, we are led to believe that OpFor's forces predominantly consist of units that have been produced in situ, using the Motherships no doubt prodigious industrial capability to turn the resources harvested from debris cloud around it and hydrogen taken from Strangereal's oceans into combat platforms.
Industrial Capabilities
Speculation regarding OpFor's production limits would be just that; speculation. We do not know enough about their industrial methods make even the barest estimation, and they are all but certain to be in the process of expanding their capabilities, if only to expedite how much time it takes to bring the planet's infrastructure up to their standards after their assumed victory. This is supported by the increasing force numbers and total unit weight we are seeing each wave, as they either reactivate existing facilities or finish constructing new ones.
Force Capabilities
Despite their obvious technological advantage OpFor has over us, their ability to apply it has proven to be mixed at best. Their current roster appears to consist of craft that were originally designed for peer opponents in orbital combat, and their impressment into atmospheric use has diminished their performance substantially, particularly in regards to their effective combat range. The ability for kinetic weapons to shake them to pieces is an understandable design compromised once this is taken into account, but it is certain that OpFor will alter their production lines to address it. Other failings, such as drone programming, will also be addressed as time goes on, increasing their capabilities as we adapt to fight them.
While OpFor's possession of an equivalent of the Active Protection System was an unpleasant surprise, its initial effectiveness was greatly hampered by the failing of their ship's power generators. As this is certain to be the first thing they rectify, we must acquire direct counters, with the obvious move being to reverse engineer OpFor's own anti-shield weaponry. As analysis is still ongoing with those wrecks, so the complexity of this task is unknown at this time.
There has been much speculation regarding the grossly haphazard skill level of the OpFor's units. The drones have a ready made excuse of being hyper-optimised, but their manned craft are at times embarrassing to fly against. With only a handful of exceptions, OpFor pilots have so far demonstrated such a deficit of piloting skills that they would have never graduated from a Strangereal flight school, let alone sent onto the battlefield. Their Aces demonstrate that they are not, as an institution, complete novices in regards to atmospheric combat, so this shear disparity if frankly baffling from a conventional viewpoint. The current assumption, based on what Research Division has managed to work out, is that the majority of their man power consists of cloned servitors, which makes the skill shortfall due to either flaws in the mental programing or a simple lack of interest.
Strategic Aims
One of the open questions is why OpFor decided to begin the war immediately upon arrival, rather than linger in the outer system and build up their forces. We speculate that they were either unwilling or unable to do so, with factors ranging from internal political dynamics to some form of technical limitation. Assuming that OpFor is fundamentally sane (as we understand it), we believe that it was some form of physical limitation that forced them into 'rushing things', with our best guess being that the energy requirements of their drive system limited how much of their production capability could be utilized. However, this area is where we are least grounded by observed facts, making it easily possible that we are wrong. In all likelihood, we are unlikely to know for sure unless we somehow acquire testimony by their command elements or records of their deliberations, both of which are easier said than done.
Perhaps the greater question is why OpFor is fighting this war in the first place. In that regard, we have absolutely no firm basis to work from, with our own history providing no end of reasons to do so. Our knowledge of their society is in all practical terms negative, with human norms being inapplicable.
Conclusion
All of these factors together indicate that that the OpFor started the current war 'half cocked', without large reserves of well trained and well equipped forces. Their current forces are merely what could be fabricated in situ, and have no value attached to them outside of cold strategic calculus. Their Aces would then represent the standing military forces that were brought with them, and may or may not represent the quality of force that we would go up against if they were meaningfully reinforced. Assuming they maintain the will to fight, they will be able to sustain this war indefinitely, and unless we manage to force attrition on par with their production, they will grow increasingly more capable as time goes on.
Until we obtain meaningful sources of intelligence, all we can offer regarding OpFor is speculation. In the meantime, it is likely that we will accomplish more by monitoring potential collaborators, if only to know which state is the most likely to be become a puppet after Belka.
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