A Golden Island To The West — California ISOT from 2018 to 1850

You need juries to convict for that. What happens when you find out that 90 percent of the people you arrest walk out of the court room, free men, with a cheering crowd greeting them outside, because the Jury didn't even bother to leave the box before they came back with "your honor, we find the defendant not guilty on all charges." California can pass any law it pleases--at the end of the day, whether or not that law is enforced is up to 12 good and true jury members and the defense attorney that can't win a case where the other side is a bunch of slavers should really turn in his license. The majority of Juries won't be voting on the law, they'll be treating it as a referendum on slavery.

What happens when every politician that backs this, and every prosecutor get's primaried hard, and his opponent states: I will not bring charges against any man fighting against the South, nor will I permit anyone in my office to do so?

California is a nation of laws--but it's also a nation where power flows up from the people. It's a nation where you cannot stop people from using their propaganda and speech. So your likely jury pools are going to be hit 24/7 with "we live next door to monsters, who would think nothing of selling your neighbor and raping his daughter, and if they tried to fight, burning them at the stake." That's going to produce a nearly insurmountable barrier for any prosecutor.

Hell, it's entirely possible that you could see an initiative (does the independent CA still have the initiative process?) that actively legalizes such expeditions, one that completely side-steps the legislature. I've worked with both failing and passing initiatives, and I'd give such a bill better than 50% chance of passing.

Which is to say, it may be bad, or it may be good, but the population of CA is likely to be very unsympathetic to any plan that sees slavery continuing to be a thing, and in CA, the politicians ultimately get their marching orders from the people and the people are going to want slavery gone. Sure, ten years later there may be buyers remorse, or not, but that won't have any impact on how things are done now. Lots of people had buyers remorse over how Iraq turned out--but it didn't help Hussein and that remorse came long, long after tanks were rolling through Baghdad, and very few people had anything like the hatred for Iraq that you'd get for honest to god Slavers.

Remember: Child abuse? Child Rape? Stealing children from parents to sell them down the river? Torture? Murder? Dismemberment and burning at the stake (or roasting--there have been at least a few cases where blacks were surrounded by burning wood which was fed so they were slowly roasted alive), is all going to be showing on youtube, facebook, human interest stories. None of it faked. All of it real--hell the South was proud of their actions in the OTL. They didn't simply not hide it, they actively showed off their actions.

Just think of how easy that is to spin.

The news media knows who pays their bills and if you get any southerner defending slavery? You can bet they're going to choose the worst possible example, then cut the film so you wander if he needed to take a swig of freshly squeezed orphan juice between interviews.

To look at it in pragmatic terms, look how much influence the NRA has had over US policy. Now take the NRA, give it more money, a cause that literally everyone believes in, IE, getting rid of slavery, and now turn it loose with millions of single issue voters, suitcases of cash, and a genuinely morally powerful argument. Even the politicians who fight it are going to fight it because they fear the outcome long-term, not because they have any real love of the South or Slavery, and that is going to really show.
You think that the juries won't be controlled for things like that? That they will be able to rely on judges going "Yeah, you broke laws that are on the books for very good reasons, but it was for a good cause, so off you go, chap!" Seriously? These people are going behind bars, by hook or by crook and they are going to stay there for decades.

Also, thanks for showing why an elected judicary is godawful and needs to be ended ASAP. Along with jury trials. A prosecutor that has to worry about public opinion will always produce more unjust results. After all, if the public bays for convictions, he better deliver. A judge who has to worry about getting thrown out of office for convicting criminals is going to make bad judgements.

People get desensizized to bad news, you're proposing to oversaturate the news cycle with violence from the South. Great way to kill any engagement for those not directly affected.

Filibustering is illegal. No matter how much you want to change it, it is illegal and will stay that way because otherwise California opens a Pandora's Box that really needs to stay closed. Or do you think that once filibustering is made legal people are going to just stop? Little hint, of course they won't. Have fun putting that Djinni back in the bottle.

As far as the population of California is concerned, those who can actually do basic maths will very easily realize that wanting to see slavery stamped out is one thing. Paying the price for that on the other hand? Yeah, that's something else. This won't be a quick thing. It will take serious investment, both towards breaking the South in a way that it can actually be salvaged and then the actual salvaging and rebuilding. This is a long-term commitment and it's going to cost a few fortunes.

I ask you to consider the following. Do you honestly think that politicians won't be able to tell the people that action now means getting into a mess that will make the forever war in the middle east look like an easy policing action that was basically paid for with spare change?

There are options between "Go in now, HULK SMASH!" and it's subsequent "That was about as wise as putting my dick into a running blender." realization or "Let things go on without doing anything." I would estimate most people actually not wanting to put their metaphorical dicks into a blender. Most politicians are going to fall somewhere between "How can we get the South to attack the North so we can offload lots of costs on the Union while enforcing our version of reconstruction?" to "How can we get the North to agree to let us stomp the South flat?" to "We need the North to do things that will set off the South. Who can we use or pressure for that?"

That is the calculus. As long as the United States are a whole, invading parts of it means invading all of it. Dick, balls, hands meet blender. Have fun together. It's like deciding that it's okay to invade Brittany and Gascony, you're not at war with France, after all.

Yes, there's countless abuses going on in the South. Yes, they're even proud of it. Guess who else did stuff like that? ISIS. And people were quite opposed to actually fighting them and putting boots on the ground. The same should hold true here. People are more likely to want to help those that escaped instead of having to pay for making the South a place that isn't a racist hellhole. One can be done relatively easily and produces nice feelgood stories. The other means increasing taxes and likely a draft and a bloating military. People hate seeing their taxes go up.

It's also very easy to spin that whole "Run off and smash the South NOW!" thing against those proposing it. It's after all positively Bushian in its lack of foresight. But if they want to emulate Mr. Mission Accomplished, so be it.

Also, I have big trouble buying your 10 million figure for that CSES. That's a quarter of California's population signing up. That's basically "We dictate national policy" levels of influence. 1 million members would already ensure they basically got their pet issues heard every time they want it to and give it the outsized influence of the NRA or even more, 10 million is basically "Do as we want. Now."
 
The building in which the show was to be seen, via one of California's mechanical devices was guarded by men of stout character. No woman or child was to be permitted to see the show, and only men of sober character and strong constitutions were allowed entry. We were all warned that the viewing would be one of terrifying sadism, and that any man who wished to decline could do so without impugning his character or courage. As was to be expected of the British People, no individual took this offer.

Upon entry, we were shown hideous pictures of the practice of slavery in the American South, including the murder of a child of 15 by a crowd, ostensibly for defying his master. His cries for mercy and his mother were most piteous, and many tears were shed for his horrible fate, perhaps to make up for the fact that none of the pitiless audience that had enacted his fate shed tears for the child or for common humanity.
I kinda feel like calling this one as silly. Not as part of the story, as possible changes to worldview in universe apply, or that the writer is an unreliable narrator, but as relating to the psyche of the British people of the era.

IRL these are the exact same people that barely 50 years later would literally ignore or laugh at the suffering of nearly 100 thousand women and children in concentration camps in the Boer republic. Camps set up by their own troops, purposefully on flood areas and marshlands, who were refused the needed medical attention and medications, and who later on turned down volunteer translators and doctors.
All this despite wide coverage in then printed news and large amounts of photographs.

I get it, the narrative of compassion is nice. But the people of the era are NOT, and the mental gymnastics some of them would need to achieve that approach a reality are just not going to be in that society for nearly a century.
It's impossible to expect people to care for anyone else, half a world away, when you yourself are drowning in an endless sea of suffering and poverty in your own neighborhood.

California can pass any law it pleases--at the end of the day, whether or not that law is enforced is up to 12 good and true jury members and the defense attorney that can't win a case where the other side is a bunch of slavers should really turn in his license. The majority of Juries won't be voting on the law, they'll be treating it as a referendum on slavery.
Do you wan't to make a mockery of the legal system? That's how you make a mockery of the legal system.
The law isn't there to be shat on for any occasion, good or bad, its there to deliver justice. Otherwise the exact same approach can be taken for ANY case, and any person seen to freedom regardless of their crime.
 
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I'm hoping more for a Starship Troopers style film adaptation ... which, while I enjoy it, is objectively speaking one of the most mean-spirited adaptations I've ever seen. Which is exactly what this novel deserves -- a blistering satire of the source material so scathing as to only deserve the name 'satire' because we don't yet have a literary term for "vicious dismantling of the inspiration's intent".
Funny, I was thinking the same thing, though I wouldn't quite know how to do it myself.
 
You think that the juries won't be controlled for things like that? That they will be able to rely on judges going "Yeah, you broke laws that are on the books for very good reasons, but it was for a good cause, so off you go, chap!" Seriously? These people are going behind bars, by hook or by crook and they are going to stay there for decades.

Also, thanks for showing why an elected judicary is godawful and needs to be ended ASAP. Along with jury trials. A prosecutor that has to worry about public opinion will always produce more unjust results. After all, if the public bays for convictions, he better deliver. A judge who has to worry about getting thrown out of office for convicting criminals is going to make bad judgements.
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Yep. they're going to do exactly that. Jury trial is a right. Jury nullification is a right. If the Jury says: We find the defendant not guilty, that's it. End of argument. The government isn't going to be able to put anyone behind bars, and if they try "by hook or crook" there will be lawyers showing up with Habeus Corpus petitions and 1983 lawsuits.

Unless of course, you're suggesting that California declare martial law and suspend the constitution to protect... The south? Because that's what you'd have to do.

As for the voting? Yeah, it's not good, but that's the system California has. It's a constitutional system, and its one that every politician has to abide by. There have been attempts to change that and they've all failed--disastrously. So yeah, every prosecutor, every politician is going to be asking: What if I am seen to support slavery? How is that going to play among my demographic, especially when the opposition says: We won't have to occupy the south, because I'll make a Roman Peace.

Hell for that matter, the Constitution of CA can be modified by initiative--if that's still the case you could see an amendment put up for vote specifically excluding anti-slavery operations from any future regulation. Those are popular votes--51 percent and its in.

Also, I have big trouble buying your 10 million figure for that CSES. That's a quarter of California's population signing up. That's basically "We dictate national policy" levels of influence. 1 million members would already ensure they basically got their pet issues heard every time they want it to and give it the outsized influence of the NRA or even more, 10 million is basically "Do as we want. Now."

Now you see the problem facing California's politicians.. Right now, California's population of 39 million is broken down as follows:

  • White: 60.56%
  • Asian: 14.12%
  • Other race: 13.67%
  • Black or African American: 5.81%
  • Two or more races: 4.71%
  • Native American: 0.75%
  • Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander: 0.39%
So, we have 2,265,900, African American--not all of them of voting age, but let's say one million join, because you know, each and every one of them is property as far as the south is concerned. As you said, that's "we get what we want on our pet issues." But wait--we have two or more races. That comes out to about 1,836,900, who in the south, given southern issues of blood, would mostly be considered non-white, and in many cases slaves if they shared African american blood. Call it 800,000 of voting age who join, so we're up to 1.8 million. Now, let's say that oh, half the Asians and those factored under other races join. That's about 5,382,000. so right now, we're at 7,182,000, people assuming only 50 percent backing. We haven't touched whites, we haven't touched Native American or native Hawaiian or pacific islander. (I'm going to assume given their history, those two last groups are onboard with any policy labled : fuck the US).

So even without counting the White population, and even if we assume that they are 100 percent against this, which would be far from the case, we're already at the "Hi, I win" level of voter percentage. Now assume even minimal support from the white population...

Yeah. you can see the issues with opposing that kind of movement.

I get it, the narrative of compassion is nice. But the people of the era are NOT, and the mental gymnastics some of them would need to achieve that approach a reality are just not going to be in that society for nearly a century.
It's impossible to expect people to care for anyone else, half a world away, when you yourself are drowning in an endless sea of suffering and poverty in your own neighborhood.

You're missing the British did exactly what I just posted to eliminate slavery in the OTL. The British, including the manufacturing towns of Bristol and Birmingham that made their money from the slave trade, choose to end it at its height. The narrative of compassion is exactly what Britain did in the OTL. The biggest petitions in history, at least before the 20th century, laid before parliament were antislavery petitions. In fact, if you've ever signed a petition? Congrats, British antislavery paved the way, because they were the ones who pioneered petitions on matters of general concerned, as opposed to specific requests. Abolitionism is strong in Britain, not merely in this setting, but historically, and remains strong well up into the Victorian era.

And, before you think that the British are solely motivated by Abolition, their government knows that in the OTL America becomes the Tail that wags the British dog. If only there was a way to arrange some set of circumstances that would see America crushed as a world power....

If only.... Which is to say, the British have some very pragmatic reasons, at the highest government levels, to prefer a smashed US and a CA that is occupied with events close to home. Isn't it nice that that goal dovetails with Britain's long support for Abolitionism?


Do you wan't to make a mockery of the legal system? That's how you make a mockery of the legal system.
The law isn't there to be shat on for any occasion, good or bad, its there to deliver justice. Otherwise the exact same approach can be taken for ANY case, and any person seen to freedom regardless of their crime.

Yes. It can. It has. And it's even happening today. A law is based on three legs. the first is the power of the state to physically enforce that law. The second is the willingness of the state to bring legal action, via an independent judiciary. The third leg? Is the legitimacy of that law in the eyes of the public and jury. We have more and more juries refusing to convict on drug charges, because A. the sentences were seen as too harsh, and in many cases, because the jury feels that there is no legitimacy to this law.

You also saw it during prohibition and as many as 60 percent of juries refused to enforce the Volstead act, which is one reason it failed.

So yeah, at the end of the day, the government is utterly dependent on the jury's to convict. If the Juries decide: We feel this law is unjust and start refusing to convict, the law is a dead letter.

Hell, this was actually happening in the North:

Just prior to the Civil War northern juries sometimes refused to convict for violations of the Fugitive Slave Act because jurors felt the laws to be unjust. In 1851, 24 people were indicted for helping a fugitive escape from a jail in Syracuse, New York. The first four trials of the group resulted in three acquittals and one conviction, and the government dropped the remaining charges. Likewise, after a crowd broke into a Boston courtroom and rescued Anthony Burns, a slave, the grand jury indicted three of those involved, but after an acquittal and several hung juries, the government dropped the charges.[


The problem is that most political issues have, at least to some degree, a legitimate opposing side. Higher taxes run into the question of killing the economy, lower taxes run into the question of lacking government services. Tough on crime runs up against civil rights. But those are domestic sources of opposition,which have legitimate backing by domestic groups.

Here you have: Fuck the south, but the opposing side, by and large, is the South, which has no political or social power in California. You'll have people telling us about how this may be a bad idea, using charts and such, but they'll be up against legions using every technique devised by Common Dreams, Fox News and every YouTube and facebook figure out there to say how this is the crusade we have been sent back for.

Even those opposing immediate action, aren't opposing action, just saying: let's get our ducks in a row.
And for every one of them? You'll have more pointing out that "how did waiting work in 1939?" "Are we going to wait until they have updated their weapons? Right now, we have the irresistible edge, but that will change in five, ten or fifteen years."

The CA government, from the lowest to highest levels is going to be facing irresistible pressure to do something--now, and it's going to make the pressure for the Iraq war look like a tea party.
 
You know, I just had a thought that nicely solves the "attacking America solution."

What if the North takes the lead, due to the fact that the Slave Power hsa so contaminated the pure government left for us by George Washington (who was totally not a slave own--shut up, baka!).

in the OTL, the idea that the South had somehow taken over the Federal Government, especially After the fugitive slave act was very big in most Northern States, and at this point, the question of whether or not a state could leave hadn't yet been answered, ditto for how much power the Federal government had.

And here, the Slave Power so denounced by Horace Greeley and other abolitionists, isn't just putting its boot on the neck of northerners, it's going to lead America into a war that a blind man sees would lead to horrifying defeat.

Northern sons will die for the slave power!

play your cards right, you could see northern states, if not leaving, passing their own nullification ordinances, and in this case, California could guarantee their security. It avoids the problem of invading, because California isn't invading, just standing behind local state militias, wagging their finger meaningfully at any federal forces. As long as the Northern states don't officially secede, they keep their membership in congress which eliminates any ability to declare war or approve funding for larger federal forces.

For the North, it sets the stage to end the Slave Power.

For California, it shows that things are being done. No need to kick things off premateurly.

For the South? It shows that they're alone. The North will prevent the federal government from doing anything, and with nullification backed by state assemblies and California's might, their ability to direct policy has just been reduced to nothing. And every day this is happening, there's more access to uptime tech in the North, better weapons, better tools. Weapons arming abolitionists. Tools made by abolitionists.
 
@Mashadarof402 juries understand Naunce.

Your entire argument boils down to "Anyone who opposes me running my own private war, for any reason, is an evil supporter of slavery and only good and true people will stand with me and let me break any laws I want. With me or against me!"

It was a rubbish argument divorced from reality when Bush jr pushed it and remains rubbish when you push it.

Trying to write it as is would be nothing more than trash wish fulfillment of the exact same sort pushed by right wingers where tiny Christian militias somehow manage to take over America and create a 'golden age'. Nonsensical with no basis in reality at all.
 
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... but people are going to do it anyway. Smart or not, people will handwave the legal and logistical problems for a later date because to them, that can wait. Three million souls in chains can't. Rational arguments are simply not going to override the emotional drive of "this is wrong, this is evil, and I have the ability to do something about it."
That's not the issue people are complaining about. What they're complaining about is the assertion that the supermajority of Californians are going to go "this is wrong and evil, therefore we must throw law and order completely out the window". Fabius has been consistently arguing that there will be no nuance whatsoever and that literally every Californian will think of this in terms of "either we allow anybody who wants to intervene violently regardless of methodology, or we do nothing because slavery is perfectly A-ok".

There's a lot of options for dealing with slavery in the South that isn't outright invasion and occupation that are both more effective than and disrupted by people filibustering, and the idea that nobody at all is going even bring up the idea that "Hey maybe we can try getting the people we care about out of this situation without getting large chunks of them killed in the chaos" at any trial or discussion is a very, very, big assumption.
 
The CA government, from the lowest to highest levels is going to be facing irresistible pressure to do something--now, and it's going to make the pressure for the Iraq war look like a tea party.
Not the best example. People recall how going into Iraq on the cheap without a plan or enough to properly garrison the place went (admittedly, the causus belli here is not made up whole cloth).

You know, I just had a thought that nicely solves the "attacking America solution."

What if the North takes the lead, due to the fact that the Slave Power hsa so contaminated the pure government left for us by George Washington (who was totally not a slave own--shut up, baka!).

in the OTL, the idea that the South had somehow taken over the Federal Government, especially After the fugitive slave act was very big in most Northern States, and at this point, the question of whether or not a state could leave hadn't yet been answered, ditto for how much power the Federal government had.
So get the North onside rather than having the whole U. S. united against California.

You realize that was pretty much what most of us has been saying, right?
 
You realize that was pretty much what most of us has been saying, right?
Digging tunnels under state borders ,while your friend sits in a car playing loud music above ground to mask sounds just isn't as glorious as a full blown invasion of Airgeeps with giant starry flags waving in their wake.
It just lacks that peculiar flare.
 
That's not the issue people are complaining about. What they're complaining about is the assertion that the supermajority of Californians are going to go "this is wrong and evil, therefore we must throw law and order completely out the window". Fabius has been consistently arguing that there will be no nuance whatsoever and that literally every Californian will think of this in terms of "either we allow anybody who wants to intervene violently regardless of methodology, or we do nothing because slavery is perfectly A-ok".

There's a lot of options for dealing with slavery in the South that isn't outright invasion and occupation that are both more effective than and disrupted by people filibustering, and the idea that nobody at all is going even bring up the idea that "Hey maybe we can try getting the people we care about out of this situation without getting large chunks of them killed in the chaos" at any trial or discussion is a very, very, big assumption.

Okay, what are these options? When someone comes up to your CA officer, and mentions that they've managed to track down their family (because of uptime records) but they're about to be sold down the river and can you do something, what do you say? How do you liberate them? The news cameras they brought along are running, what you say is going to be on the five o'clock news. This is your make or break moment for your career.

Do you say, we'll buy them? Well, that's paying a ransom or human trafficking. Oh, it might work, and it the south were to go for it, it'd be the perfect solution for the problem because finding a place to move three million odd people is a big deal, but it's easier than war.

But what if they don't? Are you going to say, right there, for the record, in front of god an all the people that the south has the right to treat blacks as property? If they hire someone to retrieve their family member, are you going to put them in prison? Because if they pay for a snatch team, they're going to be, at the very least, guilty of conspiracy.

If you define CA territory as free territory, that a slave is no longer a slave when they get here, how do you argue that securing their freedom isn't legal?

Let's drop people trying to overthrow the government--how do you handle when the family comes back, says they recovered their great-great-great grandfather, but the team ran into some issues and ten or so slave patrollers are dead?

Do you say: They'll be arrested, because they have no right to secure slaves? Do you say no? At which point people are going to ask: what's the difference between this and kicking the whole rotten affair down?

What do you do if say, someone says, "Fuck you and your laws, I'm going to train abolitionists in New York in irregular warfare?" By the way, when you tell New York? The answer is: good hunting.

I'll answer your question--you're wrong. No matter what you do, someone is going to be very unhappy. If you try to hold off and do nothing you will see groups take matters into their own hands, both in CA and moving to Union states where abolitionists will support them. If you try to take non-military action, you run into the same problem the abolitionists have run into, that the South has effectively gotten itself in a position where the federal government is more or less in its pocket. If you take military action, you're committing yourself to a long-term occupation, or at the very least, a short term occupation while you remove the African Americans from the South.

No option is going to be easy. But one of them you'll have to take, because if you don't, then you'll be at the mercy of what others do.
Because you couldn't be ISOT'd to an easy time. Not 1796 when slavery was not as completely entrenched. Not 1861, when the only question would be: how many forces to we send.

You're ISOT'd to 1851, the period where everyone, North and South, could see the juggernaut bearing down on them, but nobody could actually get out of the way. You can't get out of the way either, because it's not something that can be solved with technology.
 
There was a lot of slavery during this time and not just places like the american south, Egypt,the middle east and India among other places. California won't exactly lack for targets once it get its own house in order and pass the great disasters incoming.

Like I noted before in California's own neighborhood there was a centuries multi-generational extremely brutal system of debt slavery that was being practiced at this time in mexico as well as new mexico, Colorado and Arizona which lasted into the twentieth century and then you got Utah which at this time actively practiced slavery of both blacks and native Americans and would continue to do so in the OTL until 1862 when the federal government made them to stop.
 
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Yep. they're going to do exactly that. Jury trial is a right. Jury nullification is a right. If the Jury says: We find the defendant not guilty, that's it. End of argument. The government isn't going to be able to put anyone behind bars, and if they try "by hook or crook" there will be lawyers showing up with Habeus Corpus petitions and 1983 lawsuits.

Unless of course, you're suggesting that California declare martial law and suspend the constitution to protect... The south? Because that's what you'd have to do.
There's so many things those filibustering marauders can be hit with. Criminal conspiracy, filibustering, trying to force a state of war between nation states for their own goals, terrorism, murder, conspiracy to murder, unlawful possession of military goods, that list goes on.

Nation states take a pretty damn dim view of civilians getting them into a war over said civilians' pet issues. Nation states aren't stupid. And they are more than willing to stomp on people who infringe on their monopoly of force. Which filibusters do.

Once these people are in the South, they're unlawful combattants. Which means they won't get a civilian trial. Civil rights? I'm pretty sure filibusters fall under the same category as pirates, namely hostis. That California doesn't simply have them executed by the wayside and left to rot is already a concession. Instead they get to contemplate their failure in a military prison for a few decades.

There is no good outcome for the filibusters as their very nature ensures they need to be dealt with harshly to reassure other nations that Californians won't come to them to stir up shit there.
Now you see the problem facing California's politicians.. Right now, California's population of 39 million is broken down as follows:

  • White: 60.56%
  • Asian: 14.12%
  • Other race: 13.67%
  • Black or African American: 5.81%
  • Two or more races: 4.71%
  • Native American: 0.75%
  • Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander: 0.39%
So, we have 2,265,900, African American--not all of them of voting age, but let's say one million join, because you know, each and every one of them is property as far as the south is concerned. As you said, that's "we get what we want on our pet issues." But wait--we have two or more races. That comes out to about 1,836,900, who in the south, given southern issues of blood, would mostly be considered non-white, and in many cases slaves if they shared African american blood. Call it 800,000 of voting age who join, so we're up to 1.8 million. Now, let's say that oh, half the Asians and those factored under other races join. That's about 5,382,000. so right now, we're at 7,182,000, people assuming only 50 percent backing. We haven't touched whites, we haven't touched Native American or native Hawaiian or pacific islander. (I'm going to assume given their history, those two last groups are onboard with any policy labled : fuck the US).

So even without counting the White population, and even if we assume that they are 100 percent against this, which would be far from the case, we're already at the "Hi, I win" level of voter percentage. Now assume even minimal support from the white population...

Yeah. you can see the issues with opposing that kind of movement.
10 million voters. That makes it even worse on the believability front. That's not "Do as we demand. Now!" that's basically at a level where they should have forced California into a war already.

Let's say 3/4s of California's population are of voting age. Just for ease of calculation. 10 million voters in the CSES. They're likely to turn out and vote for their issue. If they achieve even 90% turnout among their own ranks, their candidates should basically be guaranteed a seat. In any given district, their support should mean 1/3rd of the maximum vote.

Seriously, 1/3rd of the electorate actively engaged in one single issue to the level that they put up with monthly fees and put in the groundwork?

So, a seat is up. 300.000 people are called to vote. 1/3rd of that would be CSES affiliated people. Likely to vote as a block. 100k people. 90% turnout, 90k people. So, to win, their candidate has to get another 60k votes. But, well, turnout. Let's say the other 200.000 have 65% turnout. Leaves 130k voters. The CSES candidate needs only 20k additional votes to get a majority. And that should hold true for most seats. Some might be even heavier CSES and thus safe grabs for accelerationist abolitionists.

Sorry, even for an ASB story that is a big-ass chunk to swallow.

I could swallow 1 or even 2 million people working on that thing. Because like it or not, someone who doesn't plan to leave their neighborhood or town/city, is far less likely to be invested in things that happen to people they don't know elsewhere. For most people, it will be enough that their liberties are guarded in California. If someone goes to the South and gets captured, there'll be either a bit of outrage or a dismissive "Only idiots go to the South and expect not to run into trouble."

You're ascribing levels of continued mobilization to people that have enough domestic problems to worry about that I consider unrealistic.

When you're working 2 jobs to keep a roof over your head and yourself fed, the issues of slaves in the far-off hellhole of Louisiana is more idle musing for thoughts like "Thank god I'm not in Louisiana." You don't have the time or energy to care about them.
 
Okay, what are these options?
Off the top of my head
-buying them
-running/supporting a massive boost to the Underground Railroad
-running/supporting large-scale Overt Railroad efforts
-diplomatic talks with the South and/or the rest of the US over the issue, with sticks such as
--diplomatic and economic sanctions on the downtime US in general and South in particular from California
--coordinating assorted sanctions and efforts globally
and carrots such as
--vaccination programs
--industrialization drives
-demonstrations of military power like having a carrier or an Arleigh Burke hang around just outside *insert port here*

The idea that *Nothing has produced immediate results, therefore violent revolution* is the correct escalation of force is fucking absurd. As is the assertion that literally every Californian will agree with you that it is in fact the right and proper way things should go.

Are you going to say, right there, for the record, in front of god an all the people that the south has the right to treat blacks as property?
No, because politicians aren't stupid and don't work off of a dialogue tree like some sort of shitty NPC. They can, in fact, say "No Comment", deflect the issue, or give a non-answer along the lines of "It's complicated and we're working on it". All of which are perfectly viable options that are not political suicide to take.

At which point people are going to ask: what's the difference between this and kicking the whole rotten affair down?
And they'll be answered by the cold hard fact that kicking the whole rotten affair down has that whole rotten affair landing on the heads of millions of slaves who cannot be instantaneously freed by magic just because a pack of mercenaries have started shooting plantation owners. Hostage crises are not best resolved by knee jerk reactions, and the South has a very large number of hostages and very little compunction against killing them en masse to try and reassert control over a chaotic situation.

What do you do if say, someone says, "Fuck you and your laws, I'm going to train abolitionists in New York in irregular warfare?"
The same thing you do when anyone else says "Fuck you and your laws". New York and other Abolitionist hotbeds have been putting up with Slave Catchers running around looking for "escaped slaves" for years now, they're not going to be even more obstructive when someone shows up going "Hey this guy's running guns and trying to start random shootouts, we should probably put a stop to that".

I'll answer your question--you're wrong.
I have literally asked nothing in either the post you're quoting nor in any other post since you started arguing over filibusters. You can tell this because there are no question marks in that post, nowhere is there a term like "ask" that would denote a question, and there are no other posts of mine in the thread after you posted your omake. The fact that you haven't caught that means you should probably sit back, cool off for a bit, and come back when you can engage in an argument with a clear head.

No matter what you do, someone is going to be very unhappy.
Yup. Slavery is a thorny issue, which is why there's going to be lots of arguments about it, not a complete and utter failure of any 12 Californians to oppose filibustering the way you argue will occur.
 
Once these people are in the South, they're unlawful combattants. Which means they won't get a civilian trial. Civil rights? I'm pretty sure filibusters fall under the same category as pirates, namely hostis. That California doesn't simply have them executed by the wayside and left to rot is already a concession. Instead they get to contemplate their failure in a military prison for a few decades.

That is not how the law works, at all. Hostis humani generis does not allow for summary executions. It is, in legal sense, a term of jurisdiction. It simply means that a state may exert universal jurisdiction, for example in cases of piracy. In modern terms, it's also used against terrorists and other non-state actors, again allowing for arrest and seizure without questions of jurisdiction.

Once you're in custody? common rules apply. Even for non-citizen combatants, common rules apply: Boumediene v. Bush stated and settled the issue that even non-citizens detained as unlawful combatants retain access to the US justice system, including petitions of Habeus Corpus.

If they're citizens, they don't get military prison. They get, if they're found guilty, civil prison. They get presumption of innocence, right to a jury trial, right to either secure a defense attorney of their own choice, or if they cannot afford one, have one appointed to them. The government must provide all exculpatory evidence to the defense, and it must also maintain a chain of evidence, and any evidence is of course, subject to challenge.

The government must still prove the case beyond a reasonable doubt, unless the defendants plead guilty.

If they are charged with a capital crime, and are sentenced to death, they have the jury penalty phase to determine the penalty (death or Life w/o parole). Note that in both the penalty and guilt determination phase, the jury must be unanimous. Even one hold out results in either a dismissal or a mistrial (If the prosecution wants another go at things).

Most notably, the defendants will have the right of appeal, even if they're found guilty, which is going to come in handy if someone wanted to skip steps.
Note: Court records are public.

Note that being turned over to the south? Not an option. California is still functioning under uptime law, and uptime law bans transferring citizens to a nation where you do not have an already existing treaty relationship for extradition cases. The only said group that you could transfer them to would be the US federal government, presuming it signed a treaty. Controlling law also mandates that the government being transferred to abides by certain standards of justice. The federal government might. But any such treaty would almost certainly rule out transfer to Southern state justice systems.

Equally, you can't try them in military tribunals unless they are active or reserve duty military. The main controlling case there is DUNCAN v. KAHANAMOKU, which put limits on military Tribunals in Hawaii during Wartime.
Note--that's not as big a deal as it seems, since the Supreme court has progressively added more and more protections to military trials.
 
As is the assertion that literally every Californian will agree with you that it is in fact the right and proper way things should go.
As a lifelong and proud Californian, I would absolutely be against any such filibustering. It is, at best, badly misguided and almost certain to make things worse for everyone.
 
No, because politicians aren't stupid and don't work off of a dialogue tree like some sort of shitty NPC. They can, in fact, say "No Comment", deflect the issue, or give a non-answer along the lines of "It's complicated and we're working on it". All of which are perfectly viable options that are not political suicide to take.

I'm going to destroy you here. Don't take it personally, it's partially what I helped do for prop-103, I wasn't one of the high ups, but I did get to see how to do a glorious hit job. And this is what this is-- a hit job.

Because I want a war. your right, I don't want filibusters, I want a full on, we're here to liberate your ass, war. myu clients want the south FREEDOMED. I'm going to say, budget about 1 million for this hit job.

Now the first thing to do is to get some party favors. I'm going to go through all the footage of slave auctions in the south. Amnesty has been filming them, and lots of people with cameras have, because again, these are public events. Now in RL my MA was in British slavery and abolition, but it did involve a bit of the American side of things up until the 1840s.

One thing that was fairly common was the stripping and "checking" of women and girls. We have diaries of those as young as 12 being stripped and having potential buyers have them spread their vaginal folds, then bend over and open their ass cheeks. For a health check.

We've got two looks we can use as we're going through the footage. Crying, possibly urinating herself, or looking into the distance with a thousand yard stare like she's trying to pretend this isn't her body being fondled. Maybe do a little photoshop job on that. Bonus, if I can get a frame where the auctioneer or a possible purchaser is in frame.

Question is, do I have them look as they did in real life, or do some photoshop job, add a bit of weight, make them look absolutely disgusting? Maybe I don't have to--just them touching a 12 year old at all is going to trigger all sorts of "oh my god" reactions. I'm going to have to use pixilation, but that's fine. I can mention that all footage has been pixlated in parts to comply with the law. People's imagination is always better for that.

Right. Now for the ambush. I'm going to get the news media, get oh, twenty or thirty African Americans, including teens and girls that look as close to this one as I can get. Their going to have placards with the girls image on them, and if you said "no comment" that, if you said "it's complex" that. Maybe change it to "why is it complex?"

The idea isn't to have a conversation. I don't want you talking. I want you flustered. "No comment " is great. Just going into your office is better. Remember, nothing you say here can help, because all your reasons, which do make sense, are complex and require people to think. The picture of a naked, crying girl on an auction block? That's simple and doesn't require thought. It plays to the twitter and youtube generation.

Oh, we need a name for the poor dear. Well, Celia is the actual name of a slave who was executed after murdering her rapist, so we'll go with her. (hell, she was fourteen in 1850, so this may actually be her). Now that produces a connection. She's no longer "naked girl on block," she's Celia. Everyone who talks to you on my team, everyone is going to nail you with that. "What about Celia? Have you found Celia? Why isn't Celia important?"

If I can get you to lose your temper, becuase jesus fuck you'd love to drop the 101st on their head and bring her back, but you're not God!

Great. Safe politicians losing their temper because they aren't willing to keep little girls from being raped plays great with the demographic.

Next step, I buy ads on twitter, and use my legion of far more computer savvy kids to set up social media accounts. Thinking back to an anti-crime ad I remember from the 1980s, we'll take a bunch of photos of girls playing, doing track meets, playing the violin. This is going to be expensive, because I have to make certain that they all sort of look like Celia. Because we're going to do a fade cut at the end of every scene of domestic harmony, cutting to Celia, naked, on that block.

Maybe have some of the kids give interviews, asking the interviewer where they would be if they were in the South. Maybe get the soulful, tearfilled eyes where they confess that they have nightmares of being kidnapped and taken to the south. Likely, I can actually find some real cases of trauma on that, teens being teens.

For Celia: For the Children. It's a great tagline, because if you say anything against it, you're not for Celia, and you're against the children. No Californian politician wants to be against the children.

It doesn't matter if you were right, because again your arguments take time and thought to work on. Mine don't. Mine stop at stinking southern child rapists. You can't get a better slogan to turn off critical thought. (for prop 103? Have you had problems with your insurance, because duh, nobody thinks about insurance unless they're having a problem.)

You're having people throw stuff at you or show up at your house so you need a police escort. (fun fact, demonstration on a sidewalk is protected speech).

That's even better: View of you leaving your home. "me.me.here has police, paid for with your money, to protect him."
"Who does Celia have?" Cut to an extreme close up, possibly with photoshop to make it look even more horrid, of the auctioneer or buyer.
Fade to black.
Red words:
For Celia.

When you come to work, your fellow politicians look at you with the look reserved for someone who has a fatal disease, because it's already looking like people are going to try to knock you off in the next election cycle. I don't know her, because obviously that would be wrong. But all of her canvassers? They're got a script that brings up Celia at some point, because we have demographic information for the whole neighborhood and we know who has kids, who has friends who are black or who is mixed race. Mentions that their candidate will protect the children. Because we must protect our children. By the way, did you hear the story about the Southern Slave takers who tried to get into California? I'll make certain that they are never welcome in CA. (I know you will too, me.me.here, but well, nobody is paying me to be fair to you.)

Now I want to keep my message focused. I'm not talking about war, but I'm pissing people off at you, and more notably, at the south. You're not the primary target, you're the object lesson. Your replacement, or your colleagues will realize that the best way to solve this Is to become more Catholic than the pope. If you do survive, it will be with a major fight and bad memories that might make you decide to play nice.

But how could the Californian people fall for this? A war would be a catastrophe!

Maybe, maybe not. But we went in to Iraq. That went poorly. Everyone said, Never again, Obama's getting us out of this.

And then... we bombed the shit out of Libya, despite everyone telling us, from the very start that this was going to turn into an ethnic cleansing disaster. And it did. And people said: We're never doing that again!

And now, we're involved in Syria.

Three presidents, three wars that were very bad ideas. Note the pattern?

The electorate has a very short memory and especially now, it's based very much on emotion, and that applies to both conservatives and liberals. It's gotten worse now, since back in the 1980s it was harder to get your information via twitter--I couldn't have done this in the same way back then.

But Bush managed to get us into a war with someone who had shit all to do with 9/11, who didn't have nukes, and all he had were pictures of outhouses, trailers, and the kind of aluminum tubing you get at Lowes. You're fighting people who are weaponizing raped kids. You're talking policy, and yes, it's good policy, it makes sense, but I'm leapfrogging that. I'm talking emotion, in a visceral way that has people go "Damn your policy." It's happened all over the US, if you look at the stupid ass laws that have been passed because "think of the children" (and don't think about whether or not this abomination of a law is going to work).


And here's the final problem. You don't disagree with me. If you could build a giant robot that fired slaver blasting energy and picks up every slave and makes certain everyone got fed, you'd do it in a heart beat. You want the south gone, gone, gone, but you worry about consequences and what do we do if the south's reaction is to start slaughtering the fuck out of their slaves as our forces are advancing, and how do we keep the rest of the union from jumping in and I know those fuckers in London just love the idea of us being pinned down here forever. You don't want to defend the south, you'd love nothing more than to shoot the auctioneer in the face, but you have to think about these things, because you expect to be here for the next twelve years or more if this is your first term, and you don't want your very own forever war.

Me? I'm gonna collect my bounty, put on my bounty hunter PR serape, and stride off into the canyons of LA, the wind at my back, looking for another client. What happens when the guns start blazing? That's not my problem. That's your problem. I just lit the fuze on the bomb. Where to chuck it in the lake of gasoline you're standing in is up to you.

And if five years from now, it's going poorly and we've got a million poorly acclimatized ex-slaves with no skills in CA? Why, I'll put on my serape, draw my guns, and then using twitter and face book and my legion of allies, ask:
"WE need order in California. Why did me.me.here back the invasion of the South? Why didn't he plan for what could happen? Back Candidate X, a thinker, who will solve the immigration and refugee crisis me.me.here has placed California in."

That's... probably the point when you start thinking may be the South had a point with the whole "I can call you out for a duel and shoot you." custom.
 
Off the top of my head
-buying them
-running/supporting a massive boost to the Underground Railroad
-running/supporting large-scale Overt Railroad efforts
-diplomatic talks with the South and/or the rest of the US over the issue, with sticks such as
--diplomatic and economic sanctions on the downtime US in general and South in particular from California
--coordinating assorted sanctions and efforts globally
and carrots such as
--vaccination programs
--industrialization drives
-demonstrations of military power like having a carrier or an Arleigh Burke hang around just outside *insert port here*
From the top:
  1. Buying slaves is a mug's game, as in order for it to be effective you have to at least in theory be able to buy every slave, and that will never happen. All this accomplishes is pumping money into the slave economy while perpetuating the system.
  2. Devoting resources to the underground railroad and/or developing overground railroads is a foreign government (since I am assuming you'd rather Sacramento do this than private actors) openly fucking with another government. That's an act of war. Especially since an overground railroad would require the kind of paramilitary/military assets Fabius' plans need anyway.
  3. Diplomatic talks will fail, because everybody already knows where everybody stands and nobody is going to give ground at this point. California will not countenance slavery, and the South (or a South-dominated United States) will not allow the main driver of their economy and culture to be dismantled without a fight. There are no carrots that can be dangled that will change that. (Save throwing out the current government and putting those boys from r/The_Jefferson into office. Uncouth, but otherwise right-thinking fellows.)
  4. If you're gonna park a carrier off Hampton Roads you might as well just declare war and sortie because quite frankly swinging your dick around to demonstrate its might to the punters has never actually worked in the history of diplomacy.
This whole conversation is based on the idea that Cass and the rest of the slaveholding bastards holding the United States hostage are rational men and can come to some sort of compromise and/or agreement about slavery. This is not true. Maybe you could've pulled it off with Thomas Jefferson (I doubt it, but that's a horse of a different color), but slavery and the justifications for it are so deeply entwined in the Southern identity by this point that is no longer a rational topic of discussion. Expecting rational debate and compromise on the slavery question is... at best naive, at worst delusional.
 
This is not true. Maybe you could've pulled it off with Thomas Jefferson (I doubt it, but that's a horse of a different color), but slavery and the justifications for it are so deeply entwined in the Southern identity by this point that is no longer a rational topic of discussion. Expecting rational debate and compromise on the slavery question is... at best naive, at worst delusional.

You almost certainly could have. For one thing, Slavery wasn't nearly as big. For another, this is pre-Nat Turner's revolt and there is at least a sense (however lacking in reality) of ther paternalistic planter.

Secondly, the nation is tiny 1810 The population is 7 million, nine million for 1820. During his presidential term, it's five million. At that point, Slavery is small enough, America is small enough, that buying them off? Highly likely. The south is smaller, fewer states and most importantly, the identity of both regions is still very much in flux. The south is not nearly as wedded to slavery as it will be.

Also, Jefferson is a tech geek. Give him a tablet with a internet connection and leave it at the wikipedia and yhe'll just hand you a "The prez says" stamp while he sees if it's possible to explore the entire Internet.
 
Okay, what are these options? When someone comes up to your CA officer, and mentions that they've managed to track down their family (because of uptime records) but they're about to be sold down the river and can you do something, what do you say? How do you liberate them? The news cameras they brought along are running, what you say is going to be on the five o'clock news. This is your make or break moment for your career.
This is a literal issue that has cropped up with every singe coalition officer and soldier that had to cooperate with the new Iraqi army.
In this case when they saw boys being abused and traded around for servitude and sexual exploitation they couldn't do a thing. Far more even, coalition forces had to officially "slap their wrists" if they did intervene, even if their states would drop all charges later on.


Let's drop people trying to overthrow the government--how do you handle when the family comes back, says they recovered their great-great-great grandfather, but the team ran into some issues and ten or so slave patrollers are dead?

Do you say: They'll be arrested, because they have no right to secure slaves? Do you say no? At which point people are going to ask: what's the difference between this and kicking the whole rotten affair down?
Yeah, they would then be admitting to committing murder on state hired officials in a foreign state, and obstruction of justice.
So if CSA wanted them extradited from Cali, the state would be obliged to catch them and send them, or catch them and sentence them in Cali.
So even if in this scenario that family would see their ancestor free, and Cali would not be obliged to hand that person back to CSA, the fact that the actions participants killed state officials and broke another country laws would force them to sentence them.

Again. It's not an issue of whether you support slavery or not. Its about finding a way to help others in a legal way that will not force your nations hand in diplomatic ways, or damage wider liberation efforts, both political and direct.
 
Yeah, they would then be admitting to committing murder on state hired officials in a foreign state, and obstruction of justice.
So if CSA wanted them extradited from Cali, the state would be obliged to catch them and send them, or catch them and sentence them in Cali.
So even if in this scenario that family would see their ancestor free, and Cali would not be obliged to hand that person back to CSA, the fact that the actions participants killed state officials and broke another country laws would force them to sentence them.
Mind you, the severity of the sentence for what boils down to a shootout during a rescue mission is likely to be far less severe than attempted takeovers and/or slaughter of noncombatants. 90-180 days in minimum security followed by enough probation to at least be a signal of "If you are going to pull stunts like this, at least be sneaky/quiet and avoid a damned body count!"

Yes, I will say it. Sacramento will be doing more than a little winking and nodding when it comes to questionably legal abolitionist aid even if they must act at a remove. The issue remains that a war of conquest or backing people attempting same is a whole different animal.

When someone tries to stampede a politician on the matter of We Gotta Invade Now, a smart one will bark back "HOW, exactly, do you propose garrisoning the Black Belt from Texas to Maryland? Because if getting the Cicily out from under matters more than just shooting up these fucking pigs that is exactly what needs to be managed!"
 
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