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Touhou: Scarlet Devil M̶a̶n̶s̶i̶o̶n̶ Mafia

Should Day 2 be extended by another twenty-four hours?

  • Yes

    Votes: 10 83.3%

  • No

    Votes: 2 16.7%
  • Total voters
    12
  • Poll closed .
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End of Night 5/Start of Day 6
  • Threadmarks
    • The party of nine from where they had entered in the night comes out to a party of seven, all of them looking as two more of their numbers have vanished. And so like every night prior, the two missing are revealed.



    The first is revealed as Reisen Inaba, Moon Rabbit on Earth (@Shalmoa), who 'died' from a Knock on the Head.



    The second is revealed as Alice Margatroid, Seven-Colored Puppet Master (@dinomannitro6), who 'died' from being Knocked Out In A Closet.

    And a message is left upon the table to read.

    Reevals needed on Walker's flip
    Everyone needs progressions now IMO
    Hobo's vote NAI even if late due to self-pres
    Other votes probably won't get good info at this point
    Not sure if absences are notable right now (Dino/Comi, YP to a lesser extent)
    Figure one more affordable miss ATM but needs serious discussion given game length
    Probably makes it a good spot to fill out claim space
    Wiadi, Comi, Atoms are the only unclaimed ATM
    Atoms can clear with N5 Town kill, Wiadi/Comi mech-locked out of Odd-Night TKP
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    And so the seven members of the party begin the sixth day…

    End of Day is at
     
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  • Threadmarks
    • A Wise Hermit said:
    That's not the point. If Two Doctors theory is true, then Re-Director theory isn't. That's a fact. But this entire time, both of them have been trying to prove me wrong while using either theory as fact. Shalmoa uses Two Doctors, -Rosen uses Re-Director. This is too much information to prove wrong at any given time. But I can assure you that neither is true.
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    Even if one person were saying 'you don't have proof that explanation A is true because either explanation B or explanation C could be true'
    that's still a valid argument, unless you can in fact debunk both B and C
     
    -Rosen said:
    And what changes in this case if Shal dies first?

    Evaluate based on the information you have, not the information you might have after x happens.
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    My shot spread. What happens if Cyri hangs first? We spend the entirety of tomorrow chasing a theoretical strongman. Tell me: If Shalmoa isn't scum, what prevents me from shooting Cyri? A Scum!Doctor that isn't Shal? A Re-Director that doesn't exist? Unless you suddenly want to argue that yes, this Re-Director does exist, abandoning your defense of Two Doctors theory.
     
    A Wise Hermit said:
    My shot spread. What happens if Cyri hangs first? We spend the entirety of tomorrow chasing a theoretical strongman. Tell me: If Shalmoa isn't scum, what prevents me from shooting Cyri? A Scum!Doctor that isn't Shal? A Re-Director that doesn't exist? Unless you suddenly want to argue that yes, this Re-Director does exist, abandoning your defense of Two Doctors theory.
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    You have not evaluated the scenario where I'm town at all in this hypothetical of yours.

    The number of people telling you that you're overfocused here and need to step back and really evaluate the scenario is larger than the scum team could be. Step back, re-evaluate. Actually re-evaluate.
     
    A Wise Hermit said:
    My shot spread. What happens if Cyri hangs first? We spend the entirety of tomorrow chasing a theoretical strongman. Tell me: If Shalmoa isn't scum, what prevents me from shooting Cyri? A Scum!Doctor that isn't Shal? A Re-Director that doesn't exist? Unless you suddenly want to argue that yes, this Re-Director does exist, abandoning your defense of Two Doctors theory.
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    There's only one point where I dismissed the possibility of a Redirector outright:

    -Rosen said:
    Like, if Cyri flips Town, by all means just shoot Shalmoa TBH -- that's the next most likely Scum slot from there and that probably leaves us in pretty decent standing to get the rest of the game solved. At that point, at least the theories about what happened with Shal's claimed shot are muddied enough that the Redirector idea is probably just incorrect, so my reservations toward you making a shot like that are a lot lower in this world.
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    Specifically in a world where Cyri flips Town, which at this point it should be clear that I don't believe is the case. Redirector is absolutely still a possibility on the table in Scum!Cyri worlds. This doesn't mean I automatically believe that it just is the world we're in though. It's exactly the same as the Double Doctor world being a possibility. I'm not going to automatically subscribe to possibilities being fact.
     
    A Wise Hermit said:
    Haven't you been paying attention to what they've been saying, Byzantine? It's a Re-Director or it's a Strongman, obviously. Either we spend the rest of our days trying to find out who got through Shalmoa's Doctor on Ori, or we spend them finding a Re-Director. Regardless, the effect is the same.
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    Indeed, the effect is the same. Either way we're looking for scum and if we happen to hit the scum role we want to hit, great. Otherwise, we still try to hit scum, which is still great. The only people who get to pick and choose which specific power they want to eliminate from play at the moment are scum.
     
    A Wise Hermit said:
    Haven't you been paying attention to what they've been saying, Byzantine? It's a Re-Director or it's a Strongman, obviously. Either we spend the rest of our days trying to find out who got through Shalmoa's Doctor on Ori, or we spend them finding a Re-Director. Regardless, the effect is the same.
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    You're hyper focusing in a way that doesn't make sense. Town doesn't really try to hunt specific scum slots unless we end catching them in a lie.
     
    In other words I have no idea what you are freaking out about, because you are drawing implications that do not follow by running to comical stretches of arguments that have been idly made today to try to explain what happened last night. Which honestly doesn't actually affect anything.
     
    Regardless, I will continue to be a sage. I more-or-less predicted that Cyri would get voted out anyways a couple of pages ago anyways, and Scum still have a Ninja so I'm dead tonight. No way I'm alive after today. Hum.

    Byzantine said:
    You're hyper focusing in a way that doesn't make sense. Town doesn't really try to hunt specific scum slots unless we end catching them in a lie.
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    That's not really what I meant, but okay! I meant it more in the way of, "Guys, there's a strongman! This is why I couldn't save the people I'm visiting!" And that would make us think that there's a strongman for like, the longest time. So yeah, unfortunate.
     
    A Wise Hermit said:
    Regardless, I will continue to be a sage. I more-or-less predicted that Cyri would get voted out anyways a couple of pages ago anyways, and Scum still have a Ninja so I'm dead tonight. No way I'm alive after today. Hum.
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    Nah, you'll survive tonight.
    A Wise Hermit said:
    That's not really what I meant, but okay! I meant it more in the way of, "Guys, there's a strongman! This is why I couldn't save the people I'm visiting!" And that would make us think that there's a strongman for like, the longest time. So yeah, unfortunate.
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    Not really news that scum has some way around defense in a town with a whole bunch of protective roles. Nothing's changed since 99Ls claimed BG there.
     
    A Wise Hermit said:
    Regardless, I will continue to be a sage. I more-or-less predicted that Cyri would get voted out anyways a couple of pages ago anyways, and Scum still have a Ninja so I'm dead tonight. No way I'm alive after today. Hum.
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    I have been pushing Cyri all day, this is not a particularly impressive observation to have made. Cyri was not really in a good spot because he was on the wrong side of the variable vote and as it turns out did not have a claim that was capable of proving he was definitely town.
     
    Seems the dust is settling again so outside of prodding Atoms I'm gonna go ahead and take a break from the thread for a bit. Will go into catchup mode as usual afterward, though at this point, I suspect there may not be much to catch up on before EoD anyway.
     
    On the one hand, Hermit's read of things has repeatedly had holes in it. On the other hand, their central argument, the claimspace argument, looks pretty legit. On the third hand, I'm sleep deprived.

    [X] Vote Cyricubed
    I guess.
     
    Young Pyromancer said:
    On the one hand, Hermit's read of things has repeatedly had holes in it. On the other hand, their central argument, the claimspace argument, looks pretty legit. On the third hand, I'm sleep deprived.

    [X] Vote Cyricubed
    I guess.
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    I mean I just don't see what Hermit's argument actually amounts to, in summary. They seem to be conflating multiple arguments expressed by different people as if they are all true simultaneously, when they are different theories that each explain last night without currently being contradicted by any (publicly known) information.
     
    Byzantine said:
    I mean I just don't see what Hermit's argument actually amounts to, in summary. They seem to be conflating multiple arguments expressed by different people as if they are all true simultaneously, when they are different theories that each explain last night without currently being contradicted by any (publicly known) information.
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    This. This right here, Byzantine. The fact that Shalmoa, in a cocksure effort to own me, just argued in favor of a Strongman. Even though, this entire time, he's been claiming that there's a Re-Director, and both sides agree that both cannot exist in this game. That is not Town behavior.
     
    Okay, I'm gonna have to be heading offline for probably the rest of the Day pretty shortly. Currently comfortable with where my vote's parked, as Cyri has some very awkward questions to answer and I frankly don't have any idea what a good enough explanation would even look like. Hermit, I am going to encourage you one last time to please have an unpredictable target spread heading into N4 no matter how the day resolves.
     
    A Wise Hermit said:
    This. This right here, Byzantine. The fact that Shalmoa, in a cocksure effort to own me, just argued in favor of a Strongman. Even though, this entire time, he's been claiming that there's a Re-Director, and both sides agree that both cannot exist in this game. That is not Town behavior.
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    That is not what that says, a redirector and a strongman are both a way to bypass town protectives. And scum definitely do have something, a cheerlead, doctor, strongman, and maybe ??? are definitely not something scum wouldn't have any answer for.
     
    Besides which Shalmoa was arguing for a strongman on D2 because their role apparently explicitly doesn't work on strongman kills. But regardless I don't think this is the slip you think it is.
     
    Byzantine said:
    That is not what that says, a redirector and a strongman are both a way to bypass town protectives. And scum definitely do have something, a cheerlead, doctor, strongman, and maybe ??? are definitely not something scum wouldn't have any answer for.
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    Sure. That's definitely what he meant by that. Please remember this and the conversation before it when Cyri flips green.
     
    Classes just started so I was a bit busy earlier in the week. I've physically caught up with the thread, but not mentally tbh. I'm kind of confused on the arguments here, but I'll try to summarize them to the best of my understanding before I do anything. So...

    Ori killed by scum, Absum killed by different scum, Nope killed by vig.
    Shalmoa lives. Claims to be Doctor. Claims to have visited Ori.
    Cryi claims tracker (rather late tbh), claims to have visited Shalmoa, claims that Shal visted Ori.
    YP claimed voyeur, claims to see a doctor visit Rosen.
    Dino claimed watcher, claims delayed.
    IH claimed gunsmith, claims rb'd.
    Hermit claims even vig, didn't shoot N2.

    I think that's everything. Hmm.

    Did @A Wise Hermit ever say why they didn't shoot?

    2 roleblock claims. Hm. I don't see town rb'ing watcher or gunsmith, so ???. On a side note, (no shade) a gunsmith would explain an extra kill.

    Theres a big deal being made about double doctor or redirector or whatnot. Now, lets say everyone was telling the truth (impossible, this is mafia): Shal tried to save Ori, but it was a strongman kill. Cryi saw Shal visit Ori. YP saw a doctor visit Rosen, could've been Absum or Nopeguy. No redirector.
    This leaves Walker, Wiadi, and Comi as unknowns. Of course there was also the vig shot, which would cover one of them, and then leave the remaining 2 to do 2 kills.
    (Wow! Everything lines up so cleanly (except for the fact that we are still missing another scum)).

    Anyway, now for the redirector scenario. First, if Shal was redirected, why would Cryi see that they visited Ori? And then also, 2 kills, redirect and roleblock? That's alot of actions. Not to mention the previously theorized ninja and strongman. Also if there was a redirector, why didn't they use it earlier? Or on Byz? If it was held for so long, prob 1-shot or part of a joat.
    Idk where I'm going with this. Just throwing thoughts at the wall.

    Tbh, theres probably a scum in those 3, but it's possible there isn't. If I have something wrong, please lemme know. Gonna try to do social reads, and then compare them to this.



    Completely unrelated: while writing this I remembered @Wiadi was caught visiting Ori with 99, and 99 died (bodyguard claim), was that ever resolved?
     
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