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[Continuation] Schwarz-Rot-Gold: An Interwar Germany Quest

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Twiggierjet said:
I guess what I'm worried about with the other option is who the USSR will pick as their leader. The Polish winning won't be great, but it's a situation that we can predict and prepare for. The USSR winning gives us a border with a state whose goals we will have no way of guessing the instant Lenin bites it and the power struggle starts.
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Look at it this way: having the Soviets as our neighbors allows us to anticipate any of their shenanigans they try to pull off. With Versailles, we'll be hard pressed to run a functioning government, and having the reds as neighbors will allow us to renegotiate it. What good will having Poland as a neighbor do if the Soviets get super agressive and our economy and army are in tatters? Them standing up to the Union won't happen again. This way we can prepare at least.
Magoose said:
So anyone up for a potential rearming campaign so we can be a bulwark against a potential Soviet invasion... cause if so we should try to get the Rhineland back to if we can.
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There's no way we'll get it back until before in OTL unless we keep critting. Potentially longer since we have more reparations and a weaker economy from the war. Having the Soviets as neighbors gives us leverage to negotiate it though, which is why I'm arguing strongly towards that outcome.
mouli said:
Yes.
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I'm guessing it'll be a "Czechoslovak Bridgehead" situation in that case, centered around Krakow. This would definitely give us breathing room to secure our borders, which is very good.
 
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It's not the French that we need to convince, but rather the British since they aren't as hostile to Germany as France is, and would be more willing to compromise if Poland falls to the Soviets (if we go that route.) Without the British backing them, France is limited in what it can do against Germany.
 
Carismastic said:
It's not the French that we need to convince, but rather the British since they aren't as hostile to Germany as France is, and would be more willing to compromise if Poland falls to the Soviets (if we go that route.) Without the British backing them, France is limited in what it can do against Germany.
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The problem is that the French need to agree to it, and they are the ones mainly occupying the Rhineland. During negotiations, getting the British on our side will be advantageous, but without the French, significant change is unlikely. And, though I don't want to beat against a dead horse, being the only country between them and the communists would definitely make them more inclined to be lenient.
 
Wait if we have Hans Osbert as our intel guy... does that mean we can do some OSS/CIa stuff in Russia?
 
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Mr. Sandman said:
The problem is that the French need to agree to it, and they are the ones mainly occupying the Rhineland. During negotiations, getting the British on our side will be advantageous, but without the French, significant change is unlikely. And, though I don't want to beat against a dead horse, being the only country between them and the communists would definitely make them more inclined to be lenient.
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Doubtful, France is more fearful of Germany then it is of the Soviets, like, I can't understate just how paranoid the French are when it comes to Germany. And if negotiations would result in a non-crippled Germany (like rearmament or a more lenient treaty) they will oppose it unless the British and Americans strongarm them into negotiating.
 
Mr. Sandman said:
And, though I don't want to beat against a dead horse, being the only country between them and the communists would definitely make them more inclined to be lenient.
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Yes, but the French did not offer us help during the time period where the Weimar's alternatives were either fascists or communists, and we don't strictly need the Rhineland for a good bulwark, which the French know. The best we can get regarding the Ruhr might be some sort of "leasing" arrangement. Plus, France right now is still gloating over their revenge for 1870. Xenophobes aren't known for rationality.
 
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mouli said:
Yes.
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Alright. That's ... honestly even better than them flat-out losing the battle, since in the latter case they can just cut their losses, finish off the White Army, and start preparing for round 2, and also don't have to deal with a succession crisis. If they're still balls deep in eastern Europe and've gotten horribly bloodied for it, that allows us to take our eastern clay back while simultaneously forcing the Polish to play nice with us, gives the government badly needed leverage to work with the Entente, and even potentially give the communists another bloody nose (it depends on what our military looks like, we may well be in no shape whatsoever to take advantage of the oppertunity) - all the while aggravating the Soviets' own situation through overextension and a sudden leadership vacancy.
Tactitron said:
Yes, but the French did not offer us help during the time period where the Weimar's alternatives were either fascists or communists, and we don't strictly need the Rhineland for a good bulwark, which the French know. The best we can get regarding the Ruhr might be some sort of "leasing" arrangement. Plus, France right now is still gloating over their revenge for 1870. Xenophobes aren't known for rationality.
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It's highly unlikely France will just keep the Rhineland even in the worst-case scenario - then we just have the OTL occupation where they bleed international support and are eventually forced to concede, possibly compounded by a greater Red Scare. Any negotiations will absolutely occur with the British and Americans, though, expect the French to make things as difficult as possible for us if for no other reason than sheer spite.
 
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Carismastic said:
Doubtful, France is more fearful of Germany then it is of the Soviets, like, I can't understate just how paranoid the French are when it comes to Germany. And if negotiations would result in a non-crippled Germany (like rearmament or a more lenient treaty) they will oppose it unless the British and Americans strongarm them into negotiating.
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The French are a capitalist colonial empire, let's not forget that. The Soviets clearly had plans to expand into Central Europe, which was strongly Francophile at the time, they aren't stupid. They know that if the largest industrial society in Europe falls to the communists, Central Europe has no chance of resisting them, and they'd be next on the menu after that. We also have the British and Americans to help out in negotiations with them. If Poland doesn't fall, I agree that it would be completely impossible, but if it does the geopolitical dynamics of the continent drastically change.
Tactitron said:
Yes, but the French did not offer us help during the time period where the Weimar's alternatives were either fascists or communists, and we don't strictly need the Rhineland for a good bulwark, which the French know. The best we can get regarding the Ruhr might be some sort of "leasing" arrangement. Plus, France right now is still gloating over their revenge for 1870. Xenophobes aren't known for rationality.
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You're forgetting that hindsight isn't 20/20. The French had no incentive to interfere to help the Weimar Republic out because they couldn't predict the Nazis would suddenly coup the government and then invade them in only a couple of months a few years later. If the Soviets are our neighbors, they do have an incentive to go softer on us. With British and American pressure, we can come to an arrangement that would be impossible otherwise. Also, let's not forget that during the civil war, they agreed to defer reparation payments. They're not completely unreasonable if the situation is pressing enough.
 
While I'm not completely up to date with TTL.

I do want to point out the a communist Germany was pretty much Lenin's dream.

So don't dismis him as a threat, the man wants it badly.
 
Mr. Sandman said:
The problem is that the French need to agree to it, and they are the ones mainly occupying the Rhineland. During negotiations, getting the British on our side will be advantageous, but without the French, significant change is unlikely. And, though I don't want to beat against a dead horse, being the only country between them and the communists would definitely make them more inclined to be lenient.
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Not even god could move the French off of the Rhine at this juncture, they will be recalcitrant towards any major settlement until eventually forced off by their own public opinion. Even before the formation of the Popular Front government in 1936, France acceded to an alliance with the Soviet Union in 1935 with the very clear intention of containing Germany. Barring revolution in Paris, there is nothing of substance that can be done in that regard.

Britain and the United States are the true keys for leveraging international opinion in our favor. Italy, the other major component of the Entente that isn't France is currently busy being on fire and their future policy positions cannot be ascertained with any degree of meaningfulness.

For one, I find it unlikely that Poland is to fall in its entirety, after Warsaw to finish the Polish state the Red Army would then have to attack Krakow which would be immensely provocative towards both ourselves and Czechoslovakia given the understanding that existed between the Bolshevik government and the brief Hungarian Soviet Republic. One would probably expect Poland to take more or less its interwar form with the Kresy Lands shorn off and perhaps also lacking any of Silesia depending on the particulars of the referendum given the fear of the Soviet Union though the actions of the Triumvirate during the civil war may very well tilt opinion such that the entirety of linguistically Polish Silesia is ceded.
 
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Hmm... Just a thought, if Poland were to Fall...

Would it be possible to use that to justify our own rearmament, because... you know, potential invasion from a hostile neighbor?
 
Mr. Sandman said:
You're forgetting that hindsight isn't 20/20. The French had no incentive to interfere to help the Weimar Republic out because they couldn't predict the Nazis would suddenly coup the government and then invade them in only a couple of months a few years later. If the Soviets are our neighbors, they do have an incentive to go softer on us. With British and American pressure, we can come to an arrangement that would be impossible otherwise. Also, let's not forget that during the civil war, they agreed to defer reparation payments. They're not completely unreasonable if the situation is pressing enough.
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They agreed to defer reparation payments, yes, and they do have an incentive to keep it, yes.
But there is still a very large contingent of the French that hates Germany, and quite honestly many of them wouldn't give a rat's ass if the Poles were controlled by the SFSR. As such even if we do retrieve it, the process will be a long, hard, and bureaucratic process, and we may see this renegotiation going on for a very long time. Again, the power of racism is the power to cloud people's better judgement, and to exclude rational realpolitik views in favor of FRANCE PUTAIN OUAIS
Magoose said:
Hmm... Just a thought, if Poland were to Fall...

Would it be possible to use that to justify our own rearmament, because... you know, potential invasion from a hostile neighbor?
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That's what we're hoping for. In particular, tanks would be a boon seeing as how the civil war went down.
 
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Tactitron said:
That's what we're hoping for. In particular, tanks would be a boon seeing as how the civil war went down.
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I just want the Luftwaffe and the Kriegsmarine (Or whatever they are called now, forgive me but 1930's Germany is in my mind right now, so that means the Nazi names) to actually have time to rearm instead of being left to die because of the Wermacht stealing all the funding.
 
Magoose said:
I just want the Luftwaffe and the Kriegsmarine to actually have time to rearm instead of being left to die because of the Wermacht stealing all the funding.
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The Reichsmarine, not Kriegsmarine.
As for those, the Reichsmarine already has two cruisers, which is a decent starting point. The Luftwaffe, on the other hand, doesn't exist, although we do have the rolling stock manufacturers to help if it's reestablished.
 
I'm thinking france is going to be the biggest pain in the ass through this entire quest. Imo I think it's worth trying to befriend the British
 
Sturmi said:
Not even god could move the French off of the Rhine at this juncture, they will be recalcitrant towards any major settlement until eventually forced off by their own public opinion. Even before the formation of the Popular Front government in 1936, France acceded to an alliance with the Soviet Union in 1935 with the very clear intention of containing Germany. Barring revolution in Paris, there is nothing of substance that can be done in that regard.
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The situation was completely different then though, the leftists were in power IIRC, Poland was a buffer between them, the Soviets and the Germans. The Nazis were extremely nationalist, which we aren't, and the Soviets were adering to the revolution in one country concept. It is an apples and oranges situation. Also, even if we don't immediately get the Rhine back, getting it ssoner is very possible, as is a reduction in reparations, which we'll have a much harder time paying than in OTL.
Sturmi said:
For one, I find it unlikely that Poland is to fall in its entirety, after Warsaw to finish the Polish state the Red Army would then have to attack Krakow which would be immensely provocative towards both ourselves and Czechoslovakia given the understanding that existed between the Bolshevik government and the brief Hungarian Soviet Republic. One would probably expect Poland to take more or less its interwar form with the Kresy Lands shorn off and perhaps also lacking any of Silesia depending on the particulars of the referendum given the fear of the Soviet Union though the actions of the Triumvirate during the civil war may very well tilt opinion such that the entirety of linguistically Polish Silesia is ceded.
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It's been made pretty clear they'll be driven off towards Krakow, and form a sort of "Czechoslovak Bridgehead" with the army making a fighting retreat, distracting the Red Army from us and eventually being forced to go into exile. If they can't hold at Vistula, they'll lose the war and that's it. They won't go without a fight though.
Tactitron said:
They agreed to defer reparation payments, yes, and they do have an incentive to keep it, yes.
But there is still a very large contingent of the French that hates Germany, and quite honestly many of them wouldn't give a rat's ass if the Poles were controlled by the SFSR. As such even if we do retrieve it, the process will be a long, hard, and bureaucratic process, and we may see this renegotiation going on for a very long time. Again, the power of racism is the power to cloud people's better judgement, and to exclude rational realpolitik views in favor of FRANCOIS PUTAIN OUAIS
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So basically your point is we shouldn't even try to negotiate? A long process it may be, but it'll be much, much worse if the French have no compelling reason to be reasonable. Which is my whole point. We NEED to renegotiate the reparations at the very least: we just got out of a civil war that devastated our industrial hinterland and we have even larger obligations this time around.
Magoose said:
Hmm... Just a thought, if Poland were to Fall...

Would it be possible to use that to justify our own rearmament, because... you know, potential invasion from a hostile neighbor?
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Yeah, that's the main advantage of Poland falling, we'll be in a stronger diplomatic position. We can negotiate with the Entente since they have a reason to go "softer" on us.
 
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Tactitron said:
The Reichsmarine, not Kriegsmarine.
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THank you.
Tactitron said:
As for those, the Reichsmarine already has two cruisers, which is a decent starting point. The Luftwaffe, on the other hand, doesn't exist, although we do have the rolling stock manufacturers to help if it's reestablished.
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But still, we're massively behind on the rest of the world on the naval front, and that's just to beat the Soviets.
Valkyrien said:
I'm thinking france is going to be the biggest pain in the ass through this entire quest. Imo I think it's worth trying to befriend the British
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The British are the one's who can save us, not the French.

Damn, I didn't think I would ever be saying that because of the Napoleon quest I'm working on, but here I am.
Mr. Sandman said:
Yeah, that's the main advantage of Poland falling, we'll be in a stronger diplomatic position. We can negotiate with the Entente since they have a reason to go "softer" on us.
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Yeah but if the French decide to be assholes who would like Germany to fall to Communism... well, they'll be in for a rude awakening.
 
Mr. Sandman said:
So basically your point is we shouldn't even try to negotiate? A long process it may be, but it'll be much, much worse if the French have no compelling reason to be reasonable. Which is my whole point.
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Absolutely not. My point is that we can't really expect an easy transfer under any circumstances, and it may not be a worthwhile asset to retrieve strategically depending on what we give and get with it, nationality of the occupied aside. I'm not saying that we shouldn't shirk negotiation at all for it, that's silly, but we shouldn't go in there thinking we're going to get it back just like that.
 
Good luck getting France to accept German rearmament under any condition. Especially since the Treaty of Guarantee was already taken out behind the shed and shot.
 
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[x] The Doctor: Professor Emil Fischer is a practicing surgeon and teacher at the Katharinenhospital in Stuttgart, and has seen the war close-up. Most of the severely wounded were dispatched to his wards for reconstruction, and before that he was a surgeon on the Western Front. Emil Fischer has seen death and conducted triage for five bloody years, and now comes peace. Dr. Fischer has doubts as to the durability of that.
[x] The Soldier: Fritz Muller has known little but war for most of his adult life. He was drafted at seventeen, and went to the front in 1914. Muller survived the war, survived the civil war that followed, and has put down his rifle in August 1920 to face a brave new world that he doesn't know how to navigate. His section is dead or crippled, his army has dissolved once more and the Kaiser that he took an oath to serve in 1914 is in Germany no longer. Fritz Muller has been naught but a soldier at war, and now he is one no longer.
[x] [X]The Merchant of Death: Gustav Krupp made a deal with the Devil in 1920, a deal to sell arms in conjunction with Sir Basil Zaharoff and Vickers Corporation. Sir Basil has sold arms the world over to anyone who can pay, and with Krupp's former war-plants now disassembled and being 'scrapped' in France by Zaharoff, German-pattern arms will be seen in every war from China to the Balkans. A brave new world, full of rich markets, now beckons.
[x] The Heir is Dead
 
Magoose said:
Yeah but if the French decide to be assholes who would like Germany to fall to Communism... well, they'll be in for a rude awakening.
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I don't think even they are that hard-headed.
Tactitron said:
Absolutely not. My point is that we can't really expect an easy transfer under any circumstances, and it may not be a worthwhile asset to retrieve strategically depending on what we give and get with it, nationality of the occupied aside. I'm not saying that we shouldn't shirk negotiation at all for it, that's silly, but we shouldn't go in there thinking we're going to get it back just like that.
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It's never been said it will be easy, what it will be is easier. It will be something impossible to do unless Poland falls in my opinion, and considering our economy will not be in a good place in the first turn, we'll need to renegotiate those payments unless we want a even worse version of the Weimar economy.
Dutch said:
Good luck getting France to accept German rearmanent under any condition. Especially since the Treaty of Guarantee was already taken out behind the shed and shot.
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They did turn a blind eye to us ignoring treaty restrictions during our civil war. It is very possible they'll do the same if we are the only thing between the Red Army and France. An army of 100.000 would get steamrolled and they know that. They may be unanimous in not wanting us to rearm NOW, when they don't know the Polish lost yet. I'm confident that will change when they get that rude awakening.
Magoose said:
So really, nothing too surprising then?
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Yep, pretty typical Franco-German early 20th century relations.
 
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