Meguca Micro Empire Quest (PMMM)

[Elder Haman]

Sigh... I'm beginning to think we just have to accept the 30 cube penalty. Then next month we can start laying the ground work to avoid future problems. Mami can talk to the neighbors, and so forth.

I have to get ready for work, but once I get out of the shower I'll have the time to revise my hunting plan and try and come up with a way to rejigger everything.

 

[Elder Haman]

Revised my hunting plan to start extra harvesting immediately. Full revised plan here.

Basically I had to drop all diplomacy and scouting. Cut the anti-poaching patrol in half, and dropped the magic portion of the sports day. I have 0.5 Vets left unassigned. If we decide to go with trying to fix some of this ourselves that will go to Taura and Mariko (stealth) sneaking in an adjusting the invoice. (Assuming @inverted_helix accepts 0.5 Vets as enough to pay for that). If we decide to go with just paying the full 30 grief cubes, then I'll put that 0.5 on Kaoru's training to provide her with an opposition force to practice crowd control on.

Details of the hunting plan:

Hunting Plan:
Cost 2 Elites, 15 Vets, 0.5 Greens, Expected Harvest of 74.5 cubes, -1 for Demon Forecasting, 0% chance of injury, North territory at +8 Demon Strength, South at =< 0 Demon Strength, Rural at =< 0 Demon Strength.

[] Split territory into North (28 sustainable harvest) and South (27 sustainable harvest). North is at -1.3 Demon Strength. South is at +1 Demon Strength.

[] Demon Forecasting, cost 1 cube, benefit 1.1 times harvest.

[] North (28 Sustainable harvest), Expected Harvest 48.1, Cap Harvest at 47.7, Expected Demon Strength afterwards = +8 Demon Strength
-[] Use Rotating Tactics = +5% chance of injury, Demon strength increase by 66% instead of 100%
-[] Hunting Pairs (North): Magical Girls will hunt in pairs reducing the danger, but because they are not covering as much area their efficiency is reduced. Death is less likely.
Cost: Variable, specify number of Meguca dedicated; Reward 1.6 Grief Cubes per Meguca assigned; 16% base casualty chance
--[] 10.5 Vets w/ full sets of vests and clothing. Expected Harvest = 41.6, Danger = 16% -15% -5% +5% +3.4 -6% = -1.6% chance of injury.
-[] Dispersed Hunting (North): Magical Girl will individually hunt demons throughout your territory and gather the grief cubes for the central supply. This can be dangerous.
Cost: Variable, specify number of Meguca dedicated; Reward: 2 grief cubes per Meguca assigned. 20% base casualty (significant injury or death) chance.
--[] 1 Elite w/ Kevlar clothing (no vest). Expected Harvest = 6.6. Danger = 20% -11% -15% +5 +3.4 -4% = -1.6% chance of injury.

[] South (27 Sustainable Harvest). Expected Harvest 24.9, Expected Demon Strength afterwards =< +0 Demon Strength
-[] Hunting Pairs (South): Magical Girls will hunt in pairs reducing the danger, but because they are not covering as much area their efficiency is reduced. Death is less likely.
Cost: Variable, specify number of Meguca dedicated; Reward 1.6 Grief Cubes per Meguca assigned; 16% base casualty chance
--[] 4 Vets. Expected Harvest = 15.8, Danger = 16% -15% -5% +0.5 = -3.5% chance of injury.
-[] Dispersed Hunting (South): Magical Girl will individually hunt demons throughout your territory and gather the grief cubes for the central supply. This can be dangerous.
Cost: Variable, specify number of Meguca dedicated; Reward: 2 grief cubes per Meguca assigned. 20% base casualty (significant injury or death) chance.
--[] 0.5 Vets w/ full sets of vests and clothing. Expected Harvest = 2.5, Danger = 20% -11% -5% +0.5% -6% = -1.6% chance of injury
--[] 1 Elite. Expected Harvest = 6.6. Danger = 20% -11% -15% +0.5 = -5.5% chance of injury.

[] Rural (2 Sustainable Harvest). Expected Harvest 1.9, Expected Demon Strength afterwards =< +0 Demon Strength
-[] Hunting Pairs: Magical Girls will hunt in pairs reducing the danger, but because they are not covering as much area their efficiency is reduced. Death is less likely.
Cost: Variable, specify number of Meguca dedicated; Reward 1.6 Grief Cubes per Meguca assigned; 16% base casualty chance
--[] Rural: Base modified to 1.2, dispatch bonus does not apply.
--[] 0.5 Vet, 0.5 Green (Green has Kevlar Vest) = 1.908 Expected Harvest (cap at 2). Danger = 16% - 15% -5% = -4% chance of injury for Vet, -1% chance of injury for Green (+5% for not vet, -2% for Kevlar Vest).

I guess I could drop 0.5 vets from the North hunting plan instead of capping, but that will put us at 46.2 expected harvest, which means giving up 1.5 grief cubes, and with the debt to Kyubey, I think 1.5 cubes is worth 0.5 meguca - even if it means we have to cap. I figure it's more important to maximize the the harvest on the overhunt, since that's were we get the extra grief cubes.

 

[Aranfan]

Haman, change the sports day to something along the lines of:

[] Sports Day (Magic Use Prohibited): Do a big public sports day of magical girl cosplay to help throw off the police.
Cost: 1 Veteran Meguca, Reward: Increase to morale (group cohesion)


Just in case we go with part of Kinematics' plan to get a reduction of the fine. Do that and you'll get my vote.

 

[Elder Haman]

Haman, change the sports day to something along the lines of:

[] Sports Day (Magic Use Prohibited): Do a big public sports day of magical girl cosplay to help throw off the police.
Cost: 1 Veteran Meguca, Reward: Increase to morale (group cohesion)


Just in case we go with part of Kinematics' plan to get a reduction of the fine. Do that and you'll get my vote.

Click to shrink...

I plan to. Assuming we go with Kinematics plan.

EDIT: Done

 

[Aranfan]

I still don't like the mountains location, both on the basis of it setting terrible diplomatic precedents and now on the idea that a non-mountain sports day will be easier for the police to see.

But I will now vote for

[x] Elder Haman

 

[Kinematics]

I keep trying to parse this but I don't see how one differs from the other. I don't understand how this changes the work crew knowing what work they did.

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If all that got changed is the invoice, then there's other paperwork that confirms the $10k value, and other people that can confirm the $10k value. Even if we change the billed amount, if the original work estimate was $10k then they can just say the billing was incomplete. They'd check with the work crew to verify the discrepancy, and go with the higher value.

However if we change the original estimate and the invoiced/billed amount, that becomes dangerously legal. Further, if we change the work order such that it shows $10k, but there's a math error where it's really supposed to be $1k (or even better, just bad handwriting that looks like it could be either $10k or $1k, but that might be a bit optimistic), and all other paperwork agrees on the $1k value, there's no reason to check with the work crew. They've already 'found' the error, and the result of that error is that they screwed up and sent notification to the police.

At that point it doesn't matter if they check with the work crew. Even if the work crew claims $10k worth of work, all the paperwork shows $1k, and there's an error in the paperwork which casts doubt on the believability of the work crew's claims (ie: they may remember the $10k value because that's what they wrote down, but what they wrote down had a mistake in it). And that's if they even bother checking with the work crew when they've already found the source of the error (basic human mentality).

So they either risk a huge fallout with an unhappy customer trying to prove that all the mistakes they made were actually mistakes and that the customer owes them another $9k, or they just fix the one error in their documentation and call the police to tell them it was a mistake. Given that most contractors deal with millions of dollars in business each year, and that reputation can have a very notable effect in that business (especially in Japan), and that there's sufficient documentation to show that they just plain old screwed up, it's far easier and less likely to cause them trouble to just admit the mistake and move on.

Which is why I said it doesn't matter if the work crew knows by that point.

 

[Elder Haman]

I still don't like the mountains location, both on the basis of it setting terrible diplomatic precedents and now on the idea that a non-mountain sports day will be easier for the police to see.

But I will now vote for

[x] Elder Haman

Click to shrink...

Ahh... that was a mistake of leaving some left over stuff. Mountains was referenced in three places and I only removed 2 of them. Fixed.

 

[notgreat]

hunting plan comparison:
(elite, veteran, green)
<Kyouko's demons, Urban demons> (Kyouko's size, Urban size)

notgreat
( 3  ,12  , 0.5) and either $750 or 2.5 people at 0.45% casualty rate
72.8 cubes
<-1.3,+8.3> (27,28)
 
Elder Haman
( 2  ,15  , 0.5)
74.6 cubes
<+8.0,-0.1> (28.27)
 
Kinematics
( 0.5,11.5, 0.5)
59 cubes
<+1.3,+0.0> (8,47)

Compared to my plan:
Elder Haman's plan spends 3 veterans to free up 1 elite and makes it so that we can't harvest as much next turn by harvesting slightly more this turn. (A total of a cube or so is lost)
Kinematics' plan saves 2.5 elites and .5 veterans, but harvests many less cubes (though only ~6 cubes lost in the long run, since next turn he can start rotating harvesting as well)

Noticed Issues:
@Elder Haman you claim an expected harvest of 59 cubes- I think you forgot to update that part. Also, please don't include the full flavor text in your hunting plan, it makes them much harder to read.
@Kinematics Your Kyouko territory claims a cap of 12 but a target harvest of 13. In addition, thanks to the elite hunter, you are in fact harvesting 13.2, so I am assuming a cap of 13.
In addition, your Kyouko territory is at a really awkward point in that it's right in the middle of rounding to 0.3


edit: BTW I have updated my plan. It is here. I am considering cutting the sports day, Rising Stars training, and our 3x 1k/month workers to open a restaurant. This will after a few turns be giving us significantly more income. However, I'd like my questions answered before I commit to that.

 

[Elder Haman]

hunting plan comparison:
(elite, veteran, green)
<Kyouko's demons, Urban demons> (Kyouko's size, Urban size)

notgreat
( 3  ,12  , 0.5) and either $750 or 2.5 people at 0.45% casualty rate
72.8 cubes
<-1.3,+8.3> (27,28)

Elder Haman
( 2  ,15  , 0.5)
74.6 cubes
<+8.0,-0.1> (28.27)

Kinematics
( 0.5,11.5, 0.5)
59 cubes
<+1.3,+0.0> (8,47)

Compared to my plan:
Elder Haman's plan spends 3 veterans to free up 1 elite and makes it so that we can't harvest as much next turn by harvesting slightly more this turn. (A total of a cube or so is lost)
Kinematics' plan saves 1.5 elites and .5 veterans, but harvests many less cubes (though only ~6 cubes lost in the long run, since next turn he can start rotating harvesting as well)

Noticed Issues:
@Elder Haman you claim an expected harvest of 59 cubes- I think you forgot to update that part. Also, please don't include the full flavor text in your hunting plan, it makes them much harder to read.
@Kinematics Your Kyouko territory claims a cap of 12 but a target harvest of 13. In addition, thanks to the elite hunter, you are in fact harvesting 13.2, so I am assuming a cap of 13.


edit: BTW I have updated my plan. It is here. I am considering cutting the sports day, Rising Stars training, and our 3x 1k/month workers to open a restaurant. This will after a few turns be giving us significantly more income. However, I'd like my questions answered before I commit to that.

Click to shrink...

Corrected the expected harvest. What do you mean, harvest more now and lose some later? I am harvesting to 8 demon strength in the understrength territory. Which ever territory we do first should not make a difference. Unless you merely meant I am taking the extra available in the understrength territory first.

There are a couple additional notes - I have an extra elite available, so I am able to both do Rising Stars, and have an elite anti-poacher patrol. I am hunting to 8 Demon strength exactly, you are hunting to 8.3, which means on the downward swing there is a (very small) risk to girls.

16 - 15 - 5 + 4.15 = .15% chance of injury (not sure if this is rounded up or down). So that means... 15 out of every 10,000 girls will be injured.

Not a very big risk at all. Still, there was a reason we picked +8% as the target goal for over hunting.

 

[notgreat]

Corrected the expected harvest. What do you mean, harvest more now and lose some later? I am harvesting to 8 demon strength in the understrength territory. Which ever territory we do first should not make a difference. Unless you merely meant I am taking the extra available in the understrength territory first.

Click to shrink...

On one side there's the harvesting from the understrength territory which means you take extra from the future, but that's not the 1 cube lost in the long run. That comes from two minor effects:
1) You're harvesting to below 0, losing out on ~0.6 cubes (75% of 0.55 demon strength)
2) You're not going quite as high as possible, which would be to +10. (see below)

Mind, one cube isn't particularly much.

which means on the downward swing there is a (very small) risk to girls.

Click to shrink...

Only if they get no armor. We have some extra -4% and -2% armor that can be split between the girls hunting on the downswing. (though it does require a couple elites to continue hunting on those turns, or we need to buy a few more pieces of armor-the $250 leather works fine for that)

The Rising Stars+Elite anti-poach patrol is a very true thing though. But is it worth 3 veterans?

 

[Kinematics]

Your Kyouko territory claims a cap of 12 but a target harvest of 13.

Click to shrink...

Ah, that was leftover from the rounding trick being used. Removing that.

I made adjustments to mine to just barely cover the minimum bits of the defusing plan. I doesn't require the vet units for the actual contractor infiltration yet, as helix hasn't validated it as doable. (ie: If he can't understand how it would work, then trying that path is pointless; if he understands it and vets it as possible, then it's a matter of whether it works.) I'd really rather develop the mindset of thinking about and fixing these potential problems on our own.

The only action I've removed so far is the Area X scouting. I'm also left with an unallocated 0.5 Kyouko/Taya pair.

Now, I did the comparisons earlier which said an immediate switch to RT harvesting would get us more cubes, but would also cost us more meguca units (total loss of 1.5 elite over four turns for 11 more cubes), and remove a bunch of the more general stuff we're trying to do. I'm going to try to keep my plan on the path of minimal disruption to the previously agreed-upon activity goals.

 

[Kinematics]

In addition, your Kyouko territory is at a really awkward point in that it's right in the middle of rounding to 0.3

Click to shrink...

I don't understand?

 

[notgreat]

I don't understand?

Click to shrink...

Eh, you're not really losing much. Just me being a ruthless optimizer, since rounding errors still exist, even if they're tiny. Getting Kyouko's territory to +1.3 means that when you redistribute, you're right in the middle of the 0.3 rounding zone, which means you can't exploit rounding to reduce an extra 0.05 demon strength.
But at best this ends up being worth ~0.1 cubes. Effectively worthless. I probably shouldn't have mentioned it in retrospect.

Though Elder Haman's plan should distribute to (27,28) rather than (28,27), saving almost a full 0.1 demon strength there. (Still basically no effect though in the end)

As for the police plan, I really need to know how much each piece of evidence costs to be able to figure out what's worthwhile and what isn't. Heck, I'd consider the "talk to them, tell them that we'll die if it gets out" plan. Basically full disclosure, and make sure that they realize that any attempts to help beyond small things like funneling us money would get us all killed.
That'd solve the problem, but the real issue is if they do decide to spread it, then we all get killed. Which is bad.

 

[Aranfan]

Basically full disclosure

Click to shrink...

This is a bad plan. Kyuubey will come down on us like a ton of bricks.

 

[inverted_helix]

@inverted_helix
If we were to make a restaurant, would our associate count as a worker?

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Yeah not sure why she wouldn't? Though you already have her normally employed.

Can we get a $550,000 loan as a buffer against initial failure? (and to pay off our current debt)

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I've dug up my old numbers. The loan payment was around $9,435 a month for 5 years. The profit of the restaurant I estimated as about 10k beyond that. I'd allow you to up it to 550k and that would produce a loan payment of $10,380 a month for 5 years. So profit from the restaurant would commensurately be reduced.

Does having a magic cook increase the income of the restaurant, or only the initial chance of success?

Click to shrink...

Though you'd also see some variable bonuses to profit from a magic chef. With your money making enterprises the way I do things is that >90 percentile results increase profitability. <10% decreases (though decreases are usually one time losses, while increases are usually more permanent). With a magic chef I'll change the ranges to more along the lines of >80, <5.

How much would it be to erase everything except for the single call about possible mafia connections? To erase their microphone usage? For all the other details? (An itemized list would be preferable, since then we can actually do cost/benefit analysis)

Click to shrink...

30 cubes as that's essentially everything; 5 cubes to erase their recordings, 10 if you include their memories of doing so; what other details?

Also, please confirm if the pre-scout cost us 1 vet or 0.5 vet.

Click to shrink...

I went into it saying 1 vet, and I'm going to stick with it. Mostly for meta reasons admittedly, but also essentially for the rush on it and theoretical loss of time on the other stuff from getting it started after doing this.

edit: Is QB willing to 'create' money for us in exchange for grief cubes? If so, what's the exchange rate?

Click to shrink...

No. The human economy is quite fragile and the Incubators have no wish to risk disruption which might negatively impact the human population.

So they either risk a huge fallout with an unhappy customer trying to prove that all the mistakes they made were actually mistakes and that the customer owes them another $9k, or they just fix the one error in their documentation and call the police to tell them it was a mistake. Given that most contractors deal with millions of dollars in business each year, and that reputation can have a very notable effect in that business (especially in Japan), and that there's sufficient documentation to show that they just plain old screwed up, it's far easier and less likely to cause them trouble to just admit the mistake and move on.

Click to shrink...

They told the police the nature of the damage, not just the cost though. So I'm unsure how effective this would be. I see what you're going for now but I'm curious how you'd get around that.

I see a lot of people tending to rail against the masquerade, and I'm being very unsubtle that it would be enforced, and I'm worried I'm coming across as railroading on that front. But it's kind of one of the major pieces of the setting I'm just preserving as logically as I can. I mean logically the Incubators kept the masquerade going for all of human history, they're going to enforce it somehow.

 

[Aranfan]

I'm worried I'm coming across as railroading on that front

Click to shrink...

You aren't railroading, Kyuubey is. Which makes perfect sense.

 

[landcollector]

I'm anticipating our group morale to maybe drop to 2 though, with the ridiculous hit to our stockpile.

 

[Elder Haman]

At this point I think we just have to take the full 30 hit.

I'm anticipating our group morale to maybe drop to 2 though, with the ridiculous hit to our stockpile.

Click to shrink...

Since he agreed to take monthly payments in 10 cube increments we will be okay. Wipes out 3 months worth of building up stockpiles for the next crisis though.

We should actually end up at 56.3 before grief spirals, even with the full 10 cube cost.

 

[Aranfan]

At this point I think we just have to take the full 30 hit.

Click to shrink...

Eh, any reduction is valuable, even if it's only a five cube reduction to have us deal with the code words by larping.

 

[notgreat]

Yeah not sure why she wouldn't? Though you already have her normally employed.
I've dug up my old numbers. The loan payment was around $9,435 a month for 5 years. The profit of the restaurant I estimated as about 10k beyond that. I'd allow you to up it to 550k and that would produce a loan payment of $10,380 a month for 5 years. So profit from the restaurant would commensurately be reduced.

Click to shrink...

The turn 22 specified "2 vets+4 meguca", and I wanted to confirm that non-meguca were allowed.
Also, do we have any way of buying things stealthily?

I think I'm going to go for a 550k loan. That's still ~9k/month from 6 workers with the possibility of expansion, and it gives us enough cash to survive up to 4 consecutive turns of failure. Over the next 5 years we end up paying $6,700 for that extra 50k, but it prevents us from getting 10k in debt if we fail the first turn, which is reasonably likely.

I'll work out the full plan later, but I'm pretty sure I want that restaurant. The extra money will be very useful, and we can definitely afford the meguca. It'll also give us somewhere to put the greens we're recruiting through rural diplomacy.

This is a bad plan. Kyuubey will come down on us like a ton of bricks.

Click to shrink...

Note the "you spread it we all die" part. That keeps the masquerade up. But yeah, probably not the best plan because if it fails, it's pretty much game over.

 

[inverted_helix]

At this point I think we just have to take the full 30 hit.

Click to shrink...

Kinematics idea makes a fair bit of sense if he can figure out a way past that last bit.

The turn 22 specified "2 vets+4 meguca", and I wanted to confirm that non-meguca were allowed.

Click to shrink...

Ah, I haven't quite worked non-meguca into descriptions. Though it should be fairly obvious what roles they can be used for. (Nothing combat related obviously, and nothing research related unless the research specifically calls for non magicals.)

 

[Kinematics]

Finally put together the math in a spreadsheet to make it easier.

If we start RT this turn, we can get 74.3 cubes using 5 vets in the south (slight underhunt, ends up with -0.6 before the 0.25 multiplier; not sure how that will round) and 3 elites + 7 vets in the north, along with the 0.5 vet/0.5 green in the rural area.

Total is 12.5 vets, 3 elites, 0.5 greens. Compared to my existing plan, it requires +1 vet, +2.5 elites. It's viable if elite training is dropped this turn, along with skipping scouting area X (which I'd already dropped), and reducing poacher patrols from 1.0 to 0.5.

That leaves 61 cubes in reserve after all normal payments (including rural diplomacy and research), but before the hush fee to Kyuubey. It leaves the 0.5 to 1 vet I hope to use for the coverup unaccounted for, though, and doesn't allow Mami to do the friendly neighbor thing explicitly.

To get Mami on the neighbors, I'd have to drop either the poacher patrol of the area 1 scouting (will probably drop the patrol). To get the needed vet, I'd just drop a vet from hunting (losing 4 harvest cubes is worth getting -15 cubes on the hush payment). Dropping from the RT zone is better, and final harvest is 70.4 (final reserve at 57)


So now I just need a proper strategy for dealing with the house damage info.... (though the above is still viable if we do the full 30 cube payment; final reserve would be 51)

Will think about it over dinner.


Edit: The above plan keeps: both research projects, rural recruiting in 3/4/5, and opening relations with area 9. It loses poacher patrols and elite training.

 

[Kinematics]

Ok, the police only had the damage -described- to them. That means they never saw it themselves. That means the best way to attack the problem is to attack the credibility of the witness.

While there are multiple people on the work crew, the only one we really need to consider is whoever actually reported the damages. There are three possibilities:

1) The accountant (or similar office worker), merely reading off the details on the work order, or the report from the work crew. In this case, the problem is implicitly solved because, in her call to correct the number information, she can correct her misreading of the damage info.

2) The manager/CEO/person generally in charge. This is the most difficult. If he personally reviewed the situation, it may not be possible to believably dispute his credibility. However if this is at least a modestly large construction company, the odds that he would personally review a single home repair is fairly small.

3) The head of the work crew. This is most likely the source of the damage info, but at the same time very unlikely to be the one who reported to the police. It's vastly more likely that he reported the damage to the people in the office, and it was the office who then contacted the police (ie: there's certain chains of responsibility to go through).

So most likely, the head of the work crew noted the damage, reported it to the office, and with the total damages value the office reported it to the police.

So when they consider rectifying the monetary error, they also have to consider the damage report. That means they have to consider the credibility of crew head.

Now, being friends with someone whose family runs a construction business, the workers in general are fairly low on the credibility scale. As far as their interaction with the office, they come in at the end of each week, get their pay, then go out and get drunk. Obviously it's far more nuanced than that, but the doubt threshold is not very high.


So:
[] Perform computer hijinx as previously described. Take specific note of the person who signed off on the damage report, and their personal info (address, phone number, etc).
[] Determine when that person next has a day off.
[] Verify that said person drinks alcohol. If they don't, the rest can't really be pulled off. However the odds of a construction worker who doesn't drink approaches 0.
[] Stealth/illusion attack. Mask varieties of alcohol in the premises as normal drinks (both sight and taste). Ensure the worker drinks a fair bit over the course of the day by making sure any glass is always filled, or that containers are always nearby.
[] Add occasional 'hallucinations' of property damage (walls, couches, bookcases, whatever) that tend to shortly fade out.
[] Arrange for the cooked invoice records to be delivered to the accountant around the time the guy is well soaked.
[] When she calls him up over the details, expect that his rantings dissuade the accountant from trying to get detailed confirmation about his submitted report.
[] At this point the damage report itself is suspect, which means that when she calls to inform the police of the monetary error and they ask her about the damage report that went with it, she can uncomfortably say that that may not have been from the most reliable witness.

 

[Kinematics]

Going to assume the cost for the whole project goes up to a full vet, since it involves a coordinated effort from multiple meguca.

Tentative full plan for dealing with the police investigation:

[] Dealing with the police investigation
-[] Kevlar
--[] Request Kyuubey do a mindwipe to remove evidence of the kevlar purchases.
--[] Cost: 15 grief cubes [pay 5 this month]
-[] Contractor
--[] Stage 1:
---[] Stealth in to the contracting office and collect login information for accounting and personnel.
---[] Infiltrate the office that night.
---[] Modify the cost estimate, the billing invoice, and the paid amount to remove one decimal place, putting it at $1000.
---[] Modify the work order so that there's an error that leaves it at $10k, but that correctly adding everything up would total $1000.
---[] Swap the check number information with a different one of an appropriate amount.
---[] Take specific note of the person who signed off on the damage report, and their personal info (address, phone number, etc).
---[] Determine when he next has a day off.
--[] Stage 2:
---[] Locate the crew worker who signed off on the damage report.
---[] Verify that said person's living conditions, and that they drink alcohol.
---[] Stealth/illusion attack. Mask varieties of alcohol in the premises as normal drinks (both sight and taste).
---[] Ensure the individual drinks a fair bit over the course of the day.
---[] Add occasional 'hallucinations' of property damage (walls, couches, bookcases, whatever) that tend to shortly fade out.
--[] Stage 3:
---[] Have someone in pseudo-stealth (the "she works here but isn't interesting" type) drop a printout of the work order, the invoice, and the police report off in the office of the head of accounting, telling her that the invoice was flagged as having an error.
---[] Do this at a time coincidental with the above crew worker being well and truly drunk.
---[] When she calls him up over the details, expect that his rantings dissuade the accountant from trying to get detailed confirmation about his submitted report.
---[] At this point the damage report itself is suspect, which means that when she calls to inform the police of the monetary error and they ask her about the damage report that went with it, she can uncomfortably say that that may not have been from the most reliable witness.
--[] Cost: 1.0 vet
-[] Neighbors
--[] Improve relations with the neighbors around the house to calm down worries about the rowdiness of the girls. Share home-cooked food from Akane and cake from Mami.
--[] Cost: 0.5 Mami
-[] Sports Day
--[] Specifically include a LARP activity. Construct foam swords for everyone, and let them use their normal shields.
--[] Cost: 1.0 vet

 

[Aranfan]

-[] Neighbors
--[] Improve relations with the neighbors around the house to calm down worries about the rowdiness of the girls. Share home-cooked food from Akane and cake from Mami.
--[] Cost: 0.5 Mami

Click to shrink...

I do not see how this is an important part of the plan.

Edit: And I also don't want to drop Rising Stars, so it seems rather superfluous.