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Shadows on the Silverbird (Mafia)

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Estro said:
Of course, the greater problem is that we are getting rather few on people, and have yet to find a single member of purple. Depending how many people that has, we could be in some degree of trouble. I think the idea is a duo of them, which does mean we have currently 4:1:1:2 (sorry to separate you, TB, but you aren't town).
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I'm thinking three and one personally, a mafia and a serial killer. We're about to knock out the mafia, so all we have to do is find the Serial Killer... Who I think might be @TheMaskedReader.

Not a lot of reasoning for it this time, but he claimed Deckhand, and Cake just showed up as a Chef when we know he was a late addition to the crew... I just don't believe there are multiple Deckhands. @Terrabrand If you could keep him still to confirm, that would be helpful.

[x] Lynch QTesseract
 
[x] Lynch QTesseract


Might as well due my duty. We're at 4, so leave it for now, I'd say.
 
Nictis said:
I'm thinking three and one personally, a mafia and a serial killer. We're about to knock out the mafia, so all we have to do is find the Serial Killer... Who I think might be @TheMaskedReader.

Not a lot of reasoning for it this time, but he claimed Deckhand, and Cake just showed up as a Chef when we know he was a late addition to the crew... I just don't believe there are multiple Deckhands. @Terrabrand If you could keep him still to confirm, that would be helpful.

[x] Lynch QTesseract
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I'm Deckhand Dulgan, though I can't do much in the way of proving it.
 
I don't think anything else is going to come up, might as well push things along.
 
Estro said:
Of course, the greater problem is that we are getting rather few on people, and have yet to find a single member of purple. Depending how many people that has, we could be in some degree of trouble. I think the idea is a duo of them, which does mean we have currently 4:1:1:2 (sorry to separate you, TB, but you aren't town).
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No, that's perfectly fair. I'm certainly siding with town but there are conditions that would compel me to act against town for survival.

Nictis said:
I'm thinking three and one personally, a mafia and a serial killer. We're about to knock out the mafia, so all we have to do is find the Serial Killer... Who I think might be @TheMaskedReader.

Not a lot of reasoning for it this time, but he claimed Deckhand, and Cake just showed up as a Chef when we know he was a late addition to the crew... I just don't believe there are multiple Deckhands. @Terrabrand If you could keep him still to confirm, that would be helpful.

[x] Lynch QTesseract
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So unfortunately I can't- I get two uses per corpse. I'm fairly sure you are correct about QT at this point, for the simple reason thaf Pawn, contrary to what you indicated he claimed, is not any kind of roleblocker it seems. Which means the roleblocker is still alive. Since they haven't claimed, that's probably scum.

No, what I get from eating Pawn's corpse was two shots of the mutineer flavor kill, which I wasn't expecting

Nictis said:
I don't think anything else is going to come up, might as well push things along.
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Nono, let's plan this. Who do I kill? TMR?
 
Terrabrand said:
To be clear, I always get two shots of a power if anything. Not... Sure how that'd interact with medium. I didn't get access to mutineer chat or anything, just the kill in their kill flavor.
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You could take one of our Cops, couldn't you? If we get checking then the next day is going to be easier.
 
Estro said:
You could take one of our Cops, couldn't you? If we get checking then the next day is going to be easier.
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See the thing is I was just sure Pawn was gonna give me roleblocker. For tonight all I can actively do is kill, I'll probably scoop up Astaroh next but I wanted the roleblock I thought I'd get to reduce the odds I would die while functioning as like a cop in practice.

But no roleblock, so sad mimic am I.
 
There was no kill night 2 either; Green scum seems to be simply less lethal than purple. I don't know if this is because they only kill every other night, or they have some other power role that they trade off with, or they have limited kills, or just had something happen in night 2 and decided that getting a vet lynched today was worth not killing. Regardless, I remain a vanilla, and the some total of my IC reaction to getting iced was to be thankful that it didn't make the room colder.

Unfortunately, Nictis' leaps of logic continue to be persuasive even when the basis for them is proven false and the people invovled know how uncorrelated they are with reality, so there's not much here I can do to salvage us a lynch. As such, I'll be compiling a list of my reads for your perusal, so that at least my death will get you competant information. I'm a bit busy with some OMGS games this evening, so unfortunately it might have to be on sunday, but I'll do my best to avoid that.
 
I would presume it falls under much the same rule that prevents us from quoting our lovely role PMs vertabim. I could be incorrect, of course.
 
Terrabrand said:
Nono, let's plan this. Who do I kill? TMR?
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Hmm. In this case, I'd suggest either nobody or TMR. We're cutting the kills down by ending the Mutineers, and if TMR is the Serial Killer, then he might be immune. Can't hurt, unless he is Town, which I doubt.

Sorry, watching AOT with a friend right now, I have trouble making everything coherent on three different conversations.
QTesseract said:
There was no kill night 2 either; Green scum seems to be simply less lethal than purple. I don't know if this is because they only kill every other night, or they have some other power role that they trade off with, or they have limited kills, or just had something happen in night 2 and decided that getting a vet lynched today was worth not killing. Regardless, I remain a vanilla, and the some total of my IC reaction to getting iced was to be thankful that it didn't make the room colder.
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If I remember right, TMR was healed by CW Night Two, Cookie claimed to carry a Strongman Kill or a kill immunity, can't quite recall, will check in a bit.
QTesseract said:
Actually, that's wrong, I forgot. @Nictis , are you permitted to quote the deadchat verbatim?
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Asking.
 
Nictis said:
Hey, so. The hell does this mean?
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"I believe that QT is in fact the Godfather of the Mutiny. They haven't stuck out much except for how they've made an attempt on all three of them."

Your evidence against me is that I "went after all three" of the ship command roles, making me informed scum targetting. I beleive I already demonstrated why this doesn't make sense in with the observed evidence of the mutineers, but if you haven't been keeping up I can quote. You leapt from this to assume that pawn revealed my identity to you. The basic for the logic was proven false; ie, the if in the if-then statement was invalidated. You then used the logic of my being obvious scum to support insufficiently substantiated claims, such as as your derivations of Pawn's intent. Then, when the hypothesis failed to match up to observed reality (ie, it not only failed to destinguish worldlines in which it is true, it actively predicted that the real result was less likely) you then used these free-floating claims to construct a circular argument; ie, the claims prove I'm scum, which makes the claims reasonable. This doesn't make a conclusion wrong, but it does make the argument invalid as evidence for it.
Nictis said:
Proven False you say? Are you really trying to pull this again?
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And here we go with the false attribution. Your posts are unrelated, but because you consider justifying your intuitions more valuable than getting the correct answer, you use unrelated evidence to "prove" them.
 
QTesseract said:
There was no kill night 2 either; Green scum seems to be simply less lethal than purple. I don't know if this is because they only kill every other night, or they have some other power role that they trade off with, or they have limited kills, or just had something happen in night 2 and decided that getting a vet lynched today was worth not killing. Regardless, I remain a vanilla, and the some total of my IC reaction to getting iced was to be thankful that it didn't make the room colder.

Unfortunately, Nictis' leaps of logic continue to be persuasive even when the basis for them is proven false and the people invovled know how uncorrelated they are with reality, so there's not much here I can do to salvage us a lynch. As such, I'll be compiling a list of my reads for your perusal, so that at least my death will get you competant information. I'm a bit busy with some OMGS games this evening, so unfortunately it might have to be on sunday, but I'll do my best to avoid that.
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Probably green kill got healed off n2 unless both TMR and Crystalwatcher are lying.

Nictis said:
If I remember right, TMR was healed by CW Night Two, Cookie claimed to carry a Strongman Kill or a kill immunity, can't quite recall, will check in a bit.
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I believe he claimed he had a one off seperate kill, ie that his team had an equivalent to purple double killing.
 
Terrabrand said:
Probably green kill got healed off n2 unless both TMR and Crystalwatcher are lying.



I believe he claimed he had a one off seperate kill, ie that his team had an equivalent to purple double killing.
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There's no really plausible scum configuration that includes them on the same team and that team being green, so that seems almost certainly true. That narrows down options to them having some other power role that they trade off with, them targetting me, or deciding that getting a vet lynched today (and avoiding the lynch themselves) was worth not killing. That's quite helpful, if perhaps too late.

Well, after today, there will be 7 people alive, and after tonight that leaves 5. @Terrabrand with almost certainly 2 scum left alive after today this means you should probably refrain from killing unless you're confident you have scum or that CW will catch a scum kill, because you're too aligned with town to easily flip alignment.
I should be able to get Nictis' alignment for you after I flip, so as long as he doesn't die mid night you should either have a lynch target to eliminate a nightkill or 1+ confirmed townies to build a voteblock around.
 
QTesseract said:
There's no really plausible scum configuration that includes them on the same team and that team being green, so that seems almost certainly true. That narrows down options to them having some other power role that they trade off with, them targetting me, or deciding that getting a vet lynched today (and avoiding the lynch themselves) was worth not killing. That's quite helpful, if perhaps too late.

Well, after today, there will be 7 people alive, and after tonight that leaves 5. @Terrabrand with almost certainly 2 scum left alive after today this means you should probably refrain from killing unless you're confident you have scum or that CW will catch a scum kill, because you're too aligned with town to easily flip alignment.
I should be able to get Nictis' alignment for you after I flip, so as long as he doesn't die mid night you should either have a lynch target to eliminate a nightkill or 1+ confirmed townies to build a voteblock around.
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I mean I'm personally willing to give you the chance to argue it's not you, but if it's not you who is it?

We're currently looking at a scum roleblocker still around, and a serial killer probably.

Who are those?

...

You know, at this point I'm gonna go out on a limb and say atk50 is near certainly one.

[x] Lynch atk50

TheMaskedReader can't be mutineer. QTesseract can't be SK unless he can kill through jail. CrystalWatcher is confirmed doc. Nictis is confirmed medium though could theoretically be scum anyways but has strong evidence he is at least not mutineer. Cheese has strong evidence he is what he claims of a lookout/motion detector type role. I'm pretty much confirmed as Survivor Mimic. TheMaskedReader also can't be solo SK unless roleblock proof, given he claimed roleblocked (on a night with both kills) and so did Yun.

Atk50 claimed last of all players, making him have the best position to claim whatever. The other scum candidates being TMR, QTesseract, and Estro though personally I think Estro has played town enough I doubt them as any kind of scum.
 
Terrabrand said:
Atk50 claimed last of all players, making him have the best position to claim whatever. The other scum candidates being TMR, QTesseract, and Estro though personally I think Estro has played town enough I doubt them as any kind of scum.
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I also can't be SK, unless you think SK can kill through Jail, because purple killed yesterday, when you had me locked up.

Of course, that does presume one person scum, but that was the assumption in the earlier parts of your post, and as such should be continued. In a Duo set up, I could technically be scum, but well, I ain't :V
 
QTesseract said:
"I believe that QT is in fact the Godfather of the Mutiny. They haven't stuck out much except for how they've made an attempt on all three of them."

Your evidence against me is that I "went after all three" of the ship command roles, making me informed scum targetting. I beleive I already demonstrated why this doesn't make sense in with the observed evidence of the mutineers, but if you haven't been keeping up I can quote. You leapt from this to assume that pawn revealed my identity to you. The basic for the logic was proven false; ie, the if in the if-then statement was invalidated. You then used the logic of my being obvious scum to support insufficiently substantiated claims, such as as your derivations of Pawn's intent. Then, when the hypothesis failed to match up to observed reality (ie, it not only failed to destinguish worldlines in which it is true, it actively predicted that the real result was less likely) you then used these free-floating claims to construct a circular argument; ie, the claims prove I'm scum, which makes the claims reasonable. This doesn't make a conclusion wrong, but it does make the argument invalid as evidence for it.
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See, this is the kinda thing that would have been helpful for you to clarify, rather than just saying that I'm spouting bullshit.

So... Let's break this down. Going after all three... I can point out you going after two of them right now, in thread, not "Informed Scum" but rather "Scum striking opportunity." I hadn't bothered to check the details at the time, but if you're really sticking to that one point as proof that I'm wrong... After I'm proven right on the other thing, then okay.

I was going to quote you putting the doubt in the captain out, and you putting the lynch on the First Mate here... But I already did that.
You leapt from this to assume that pawn revealed my identity to you.
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QTesseract said:
-It would be mildly out of character for Pawn to give me away by giving enough information to identify me. It could definitely happen, but if you had told me ahead of time that Pawn fucked up in that way I would be mildly surprised.
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Worth noting here that Pawn did reveal his partner, and I figured you out through process of elimination. So... Interesting bit here.
The basic for the logic was proven false; ie, the if in the if-then statement was invalidated.
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I have no idea what you're pointing at here. The if-then statement? There's no 'If' in my mind here, you're the other mutineer. The basis for the logic was that nobody else matched, and you did. Terrabrand was a Mimic, Atk had replaced in, Pawn wouldn't trust Crystal, TMR was drugged... That left you. You had put out doubt on the Captain, helped lynch the First Mate, and you did absolutely nothing other than a back and forth with the Mimic while the Second Mate died. You matched. The others didn't.
Then, when the hypothesis failed to match up to observed reality
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"Cookie is a mutineer!"
CookieSide is a Mutineer.
"QT is almost certainly a mutineer!"
QT is blocked, no Mutineer kills.

What part of this is not matching up to observed reality?
(ie, it not only failed to destinguish worldlines in which it is true, it actively predicted that the real result was less likely)
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Context needed.
you then used these free-floating claims to construct a circular argument; ie, the claims prove I'm scum, which makes the claims reasonable. This doesn't make a conclusion wrong, but it does make the argument invalid as evidence for it.
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No? Pawn claimed that CookieSide was part of the Mutiny. He was. He hinted that he would trust the other, and I pieced it together from there (See Above) It's supported by your claim being a copy of Yun's claim, when all the other Vanillas that we can see are unique, but it's not exactly circular here. Also: We don't need perfect evidence to spot scum.

And did you know that when you're bullshitting, you like to use the fancier terms?


I beleive I already demonstrated why this doesn't make sense in with the observed evidence of the mutineers, but if you haven't been keeping up I can quote.
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I'm not seeing it and I'm looking at your posts. Quote please.
Terrabrand said:
I mean I'm personally willing to give you the chance to argue it's not you, but if it's not you who is it?
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I told you not to join the mutiny Terra. Know this, if the game is still going after QT and the Necromancer are lynched, you're next on the block.

Actually... @Crystalwatcher Mind hammering? Terrabrand decided to sign up with the Greens and is trying to help QT dodge the lynch.
 
Estro said:
I also can't be SK, unless you think SK can kill through Jail, because purple killed yesterday, when you had me locked up.

Of course, that does presume one person scum, but that was the assumption in the earlier parts of your post, and as such should be continued. In a Duo set up, I could technically be scum, but well, I ain't :V
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This is true, I had failed at remembering the full list of past actions. You are as confirmed non-sk as QTesseract etc.
 
If Terrabrand is still a Survivor, and QT is Town, then he can kill atk or TMR or me or whoever. If he intends to win with Town, he won't kill me though.
 
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