Fiend: Thread Three, Thread Harder. [Exalted/Worm]

Alratan said:
Precongition immunity is not unprecedented in the Worm-verse, I think. Competing precognitives also interfere with each other, IIRC. This means she must already have some means to get past this and keep things on track, which suggests some degree of active management to nudge events back on the rails every time someone outisde her model throws off a butterfly.
Thing is, jamming precog by having your own is an entirely different beast from jamming precog by running on a separate physics engine from the rest of the universe.
 
pheonix89 said:
Thing is, jamming precog by having your own is an entirely different beast from jamming precog by running on a separate physics engine from the rest of the universe.
It is, but it seems similar enough to Trump powers that make people a black hole as far as precognition is concerned, which I think we know exist, to use as a rough model.
 
Alratan said:
It is, but it seems similar enough to Trump powers that make people a black hole as far as precognition is concerned, which I think we know exist, to use as a rough model.
Not...really? In one case, there is a black hole, in another case, everything is predicted as usual, except that Taylor doesn't exist in those predictions, and everything predicted only take into account what would happen if she didn't exist. E.G, Sundancer would be the one announcing the destinations and so on.

Things work perfectly. They just don't account for her nor her actions.
 
"The Simurgh is countered by other precogs" doesn't account for the fact that her bombs are essentially invisible to humanity's precogs (To the point where policy is "Nobody gets in and out of a battlefront that she was on").

She works on such a fine scale that the best Thinkers in the world can't see it. It makes her bombs undetectable, but it should also make them fundamentally Brittle, that someone who--by nature, cannot be accounted for, can disrupt them with relatively minor contact.
 
Arkeus said:
Not...really? In one case, there is a black hole, in another case, everything is predicted as usual, except that Taylor doesn't exist in those predictions, and everything predicted only take into account what would happen if she didn't exist. E.G, Sundancer would be the one announcing the destinations and so on.

Things work perfectly. They just don't account for her nor her actions.
It depends whether the Simurgh's predictions are static or continually being updated. I think they have to be continually updated, otherwise she couldn't work around either other precongitives or with other people that can be observed with precognition. There's no plot, or narrative weight. There's simply a set of particles arranged in a specific state that describes the now.

Also, worm powers don't work like that, if I understand correctly. There is no metaphysical 'should have happened' that exists outside the moment. There's simply a deterministic physics engine that can be fast forwarded and observed if you know the location of all the starting particles.

In this model, Taylor would be a hole, as the Simurgh could predict the location of all the molecules an infinitesimal instant into the future, apart from the ones that make up Taylor or she's directly interacting with.
 
Alratan said:
Also, worm powers don't work like that, if I understand correctly. There is no metaphysical 'should have happened' that exists outside the moment. There's simply a deterministic physics engine that can be fast forwarded and observed if you know the location of all the starting particles.

In this model, Taylor would be a hole, as the Simurgh could predict the location of all the molecules an infinitesimal instant into the future, apart from the ones that make up Taylor or she's directly interacting with.
No she wouldn't be a Hole, she just wouldn't be there- any fast forward would only show the world fast forwarded from now, but as if Taylor suddenly disappeared and everyone else didn't notice she ever existed.
 
Arkeus said:
No she wouldn't be a Hole, she just wouldn't be there- any fast forward would only show the world fast forwarded from now, but as if Taylor suddenly disappeared and everyone else didn't notice she ever existed.
Why wouldn't they notice she ever existed? From what I understand, and I'll readily admit I could be wrong, the Simurgh would be reading the configuration of the world, including their brains and deriving what would happen if Taylor had existed and then suddenly ceased to, unless she could put a placeholder in to her model to compensate for the hidden variables she represented. Where would the Simurgh find a world state to look at to base a simulation oof what would have happened if Taylor had never existed.
 
This discussion has me wondering how Simurgh's postcog works. Is it the same as her precog but in reverse; that is taking the current state of the universe and running it backwards to find out what happened. Or is it directly viewing past events.

In the former Simurgh would be getting all sorts of false information about what's happened. The reason been that her model for calculating the past wouldn't include Taylor's existence so it would generate the series of events required to reach the present without Taylor's influence.

Where as in the latter she would get the correct history and probably find it odd that Taylor seems to cease to exist the second she looks into the future.
 
UberJJK said:
Where as in the latter she would get the correct history and probably find it odd that Taylor seems to cease to exist the second she looks into the future.
I am assuming it's the Latter because of what has been said about Coil's power interaction with Taylor.
 
esran said:
i would argue that while exalts might be invisible to precog, they are perfectly visible to postcog, and simurgh has that in spades.
That is a point - plus she can model them based on the way people she can see interact - or if really pressed she can just tinker herself up an upgrade to add normal sight.
 
Mastigo said:
I just thought of another way that Taylor teleporting around might actually be helpful at the fight: distraction and disorientation.

I mean, imagine a rolling blackout of things going wrong from Simurgh's point of view, waves of changes rippling across the globe over and over, intersecting as rocks keep on getting tossed all over the the pond. And it's far worse than just blotting out the future ... oh no, it's constantly CHANGING the future. So from the perspective of Simurgh's ridiculously detailed precog, it's like everything is shifting and changing and swaying and dissolving away. I imagine the experience would be similar to drug induced hallucinations, or even sensory overload.

And because those waves are spreading out and intersecting EVERYWHERE, all across the globe, she can't make any of the capes at the fight into time bombs.
Exactly my point.
 
This isn't quite how Outside Fate works. Rather, at any given moment, precog would show the future as it would be if Taylor were to vanish off the face of the earth right then, and everyone were to forget her.

So whatever plan Simurgh had for Noelle, her precog showed it going perfectly, right up until Taylor exposed Noelle early, at which point her precog would have shown the consequences of Noelle being found early without Taylor being present (probably a lot higher bodycount), And then it would have shifted again when Taylor killed her.

Now, from Simurgh's perspective, the future is wobbling violently either way, but she doesn't think that Taylor is still gearing up to be Skitter. That strand of fate has already been ripped out. As far as precog is concerned, Taylor does not exist.

Basically, Taylor can steal the proverbial horse shoe nail, and precog would show the kingdom winning the war, right up until the nail is stolen, and then it suddenly shifts to showing the kingdom falling. But it wouldn't show what happened to the nail, other than it suddenly vanishing.
 
Pretty much, yeah.

That being said, as mentioned, Taylor jumping all over the place and Showing Off would frequently knock the Simurgh's calculations out of whack, which means she either needs to dedicate more "Attention" to compensating for the disruptions, which means she's reducing her ability to defend herself materially, as well as precog other people that aren't going to be involved in the bomb.

Alternately, she could just fucking teleport to where the disruption is once all the Heroes are tied up in Montreal, she already beamed halfway across the world.
 
Alectai said:
Pretty much, yeah.

That being said, as mentioned, Taylor jumping all over the place and Showing Off would frequently knock the Simurgh's calculations out of whack, which means she either needs to dedicate more "Attention" to compensating for the disruptions, which means she's reducing her ability to defend herself materially, as well as precog other people that aren't going to be involved in the bomb.

Alternately, she could just fucking teleport to where the disruption is once all the Heroes are tied up in Montreal, she already beamed halfway across the world.
That depends on if the heroes don't zap her tinker tech, which is a high, high priority.
 
esran said:
but simurgh sees things through cause and effect modeling as well. she can see what skitter has done, and use it to predict what she will do.
Which gives her an imperfect model. Suddenly she can't account for free will anymore. She also can't account for Taylor succeeding or failing in anything she decides to do. (She would be able to predict that Taylor will retaliate if someone goes after Danny, but she can't predict whether Taylor will succeed or fail in that vengeance.)
 
Mastigo said:
Amusing Omake idea: Simurgh decides to cancel the attack midway through on account of having a massive migrain/hangover. Instead she shambles out in search of coffee.
Simurgh, search for coffee? Don't be silly. She'll instead engineer a situation where some government wants to launch a secret tinker-made spy satellite into orbit, but thanks to an incredibly unlikely series of bureaucratic failings, the rocket is actually filled with coffee instead. Due to random equipment malfunction it will just happen to be aimed directly at her. Of course when that government realizes they realize they gave their super secret spy technology to the Simurgh, they'll proceed to rip each other apart and promptly destroy their forward progress for the foreseeable future. Mission accomplished. *sip*
 
Inverness said:
Simurgh, search for coffee? Don't be silly. She'll instead engineer a situation where some government wants to launch a secret tinker-made spy satellite into orbit, but thanks to an incredibly unlikely series of bureaucratic failings, the rocket is actually filled with coffee instead. Due to random equipment malfunction it will just happen to be aimed directly at her. Of course when that government realizes they realize they gave their super secret spy technology to the Simurgh, they'll proceed to rip each other apart and promptly destroy their forward progress for the foreseeable future. Mission accomplished. *sip*
Simurgh, floating in space: ... ... ... where's my coffee? Lesse now... ... why can't I see my coffee in the past AND in the future?? The F*ck??

*elsewhere*
The Number Man, to the Doormaker: "Ok, now transfer Defiler from NASA's Huston launchpad to the Pentagon. Got to stop some triggerhappy yahoo from starting World War Three by launching some tea-time snacks using an ICBM.
...
Oh, and note to self: NASA could use a transfer of funds for a new launchpad..."
 
Rathmun said:
This isn't quite how Outside Fate works. Rather, at any given moment, precog would show the future as it would be if Taylor were to vanish off the face of the earth right then, and everyone were to forget her.

So whatever plan Simurgh had for Noelle, her precog showed it going perfectly, right up until Taylor exposed Noelle early, at which point her precog would have shown the consequences of Noelle being found early without Taylor being present (probably a lot higher bodycount), And then it would have shifted again when Taylor killed her.

Now, from Simurgh's perspective, the future is wobbling violently either way, but she doesn't think that Taylor is still gearing up to be Skitter. That strand of fate has already been ripped out. As far as precog is concerned, Taylor does not exist.

Basically, Taylor can steal the proverbial horse shoe nail, and precog would show the kingdom winning the war, right up until the nail is stolen, and then it suddenly shifts to showing the kingdom falling. But it wouldn't show what happened to the nail, other than it suddenly vanishing.
Er, no. In Canon exalted, being outside fate simply means that fate doesn't take your action into account. Thus, any precog would show what canon should be, not what it is. Fate does have mechanisms for adapting to this, but this tends to trigger issues like Omen Weather,.
 
YuffieK said:
As Wildbow's last interlude revealed [<color style="transparent"]Simurgh can't perceive ANYTHING in real time. Her 'blind spot' is literally the previous and the next half second. Rapid fire random teleportation combat is her weakness.[/color]>
I don't see why teleportation would be her weakness. Simurgh can see the future where you ended up teleporting.
 
Matsci said:
Er, no. In Canon exalted, being outside fate simply means that fate doesn't take your action into account. Thus, any precog would show what canon should be, not what it is. Fate does have mechanisms for adapting to this, but this tends to trigger issues like Omen Weather,.
It shows what Cannon should be, until those mechanisms catch up. Now, in the Exalted setting, the number of essence users puts a lot of strain on those mechanisms. But in WORM, there is one source of fate-breaking BS. The exact amount of time it would take fate to catch up is up to the author, but I'm pretty certain that by now fate is not showing Taylor gearing up to be Skitter. Otherwise the PRT wouldn't be classifying it as a precog jamming effect, but rather as the complete and total destruction of all precognitive ability. (By now the divergence would most certainly be enough to render all of the precogs wrong in very noticeable ways.)
 
esran said:
seriosly, why does being out of fate jam postcog?
As I said it depends on how Simurgh's postcog works. If it's her precog in reverse, that is taking the present state of the universe and running it backwards, then Taylor wouldn't show up. Which leads to false results.

The reason stems from why Taylor is out of fate. Taylor isn't a part of the world anymore so any calculations done using it turn out wrong since even though she's not a part of it she can still effect it.
 
Taylor is constantly changing. Plus even when she doesn't change, her value may differ depending on what charm she invokes, or whatever. Her models cannot account for her. She's still dangerous. She'll adapt to a more tinker heavy less Rube goldburg aproach. This will earn Defiler and her team a very large amount of leeway for vigilante action from the PRT.
 
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