Either way, starting a civil war now doesn't sit with me well thematically. With Ulyssian's current standing, most of it will not only involve, but be decided by large military blocks. Meaning a lot of political maneuvering, gathering alliances in the near future; consolidating the power and stabilizing the Realm after the war. Politics...
Ulyssian will be a leader, one the central figures, yes, but not a power unto himself so early in his Exaltation. A major concern seems to the mounting strength of Dragonblooded opposition. But it's the same for Ulyssian, and considering his speed of accumulation of power, it would be safe to say he comes ahead of anyone else in that department. It is literally his thing. And unlike the other factions of the possible civil war, which have finite resources (limited by the Realm), Uly's potential is greater.
Except that we have pretty much emptied our XP pool and any efforts to gather political power run rather heavily into the issue that the SIddie's will oppose any of our efforts on that front, House Cathak will be doing whatever it can to openly screw us over personally and the chosen course of action was to go for a Satrapy, which is definitely not a very fast route to acquiring political power.
Realizing Uly's potential to the degree where he can solve all problems personally is not a realistic goal for the timframe in which we have to act and, given that politics is definitely not our area of expertise and that we just made some very strong enemies, it's questionable whether our efforts in the political area can actually outweigh Zao's constantly diminishing political power or the constantly weakening strength of the Realm navy.
If after three months Ulyssian can beat one of the greatest Dragons in the Realm, why not wait a couple years and make him truly unstoppable? IIRC Zao's estimations of Realm's life expectancy were about a decade.
Because the Realm being expected to survive about a decade neither means we can actually afford to let it bleed for that long nor does the number actually account for less predictable catastrophies waiting to happen, like the Handsom Monkey King, whatever the hell the Infernals are up to or one of the 300 Solaroids just throwing a wrench into all plans and calculations like they are wont to do.
A Realm that has been left to its own devices for ten years is a Realm that has been incredibly crippled.
Also, the argument that a war right now will be resolved quicker is exceedingly optimistic. Neither of the outlined alliances hold enough power to guarantee a quick victory. The longer it lasts, the more it escalates, defeating the purpose of an early start of the war.
And letting the Great Houses pile up weapons, troops and supplies for even longer will resolve it any mroe quickly?
The currently outlined alliance is honestly all you're ever going to get going into this Civil War because the moment one of the other major factions sees you gaining any more support than what we can get right now, they're going to kick off the Civil War themselves, before they have no choice but to bow to you. The other players aren't stupid enough to sit back and do nothing but watch while any coalition gathers up more than four Houses.
At the same time however, the other Houses are also not in fact united. Our current forces may not be enough to ensure a win, but they're a pretty good opening move, giving us decent odds to prevail, assuming there will be around three to four major power blocs in total, which is pretty much the minimum. And then, as the war progresses and Houses take blows, alliances and Allegiances will shift accordingly.
It's not going to be quick and it's not going to be pretty, but this is an inevitable Civil War we're talking about so there is basically no scenario in which it's going to be either of those things.
The best we can do is to just grit our teeth and go through with it now.
Lastly, we are not in a closed system. Our friends, the Infernals already showed us how deep within the Realm its potential enemies are settled. The war doesn't have to last a long period of time for them and other players to sense weakness and act. And that's that much more dangerous with our level.
And once again, hanging back and waiting will not do anything to change this.
Yes, others are likely to pounce on this chance, but the war is inevitable and as we wait the other factions will grow more prepared as well.
Ulyssian's growth may be all kinds of bullshit, but we have both run out of our impressive XP stockpile and there are
fifty Infernals alone out there. A year for Uly to power up is a year for those fifty Solaroids to power up as well. A year for Uly to gain political connections is a year for all his enemies to advance their own schemes and gaining political conenctions isn't even in our area of expertise. A year for Uly to build up his Satrapy is also a year for those hundreds of Solaroids that hate the Realm to build up their own kingdoms.
Uly's core strength is his ability to train at a ridiculous pace and to murderize stuff.
He's run out of XP, so switching to the biggest opportunity to murderize stuff is not that bad a plan, especially since once this is over our faction will (hopefully) have the world's greatest superpower (even if diminished by the Civil War) and it's greatest WMD under their control, which will put us a long way towards starting to confront all the threats we can't really do anything about right now.