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Given the good point that we can't just expect to buy more Arisakas, the rifle supply is definitely something to be concerned about. I don't know how much we can expect to expand production without hitting the limits of the arms industry (Type 3, LMG, Type 38) but we can probably at least double it. But even if we tripled production by the end of 1933, to ~3000 pieces per year, we'd still have "assorted firearms" in active service for a few years and first-line reserve units with that or nothing for longer.
And those are based on optimistic estimates that we don't expand the force faster or larger or want rifles on hand for more than two years of reservists, although production could likely be ramped up further after the current planning period. We should probably plan on buying at least 20,000 rifles off the shelf sometime in the next few years.
Given the previous report on rifles, it looks like the Enfield P17 or the SMLE would probably be the best options, and between them we may be more likely to get the American P17. While it would add the 30.06 round to the logistics burden, it's a round used in various MMGs/HMGs and the Carabineri and potentially marksmen have a use case for bigger guns.
Although, having written this based on assumptions, I once again remember that we have advisors for this: How much do the arms industry advisors think Type 38 production could be scaled up in the short term? @FrangibleCover
Current 6.5mm Arisaka rifles (both Type 30 and 38): ~18,000
Production assumption: ramping up to 3000 rifles/year by the end of 1933
Force assumption: That we ramp up from ~15,000 rifle users to ~28,000 over the course of two years, from mid 1934 to mid 1936 (due to conscript training times. Note, this is still a lot slower than the government wants). ~6,500 rifle users per year
End of 1934: 21,000 rifles, ~18,250 riflemen
End of 1935: 24,000 rifles, ~24,750 riflemen
Mid-1936: 25,500 rifles, ~28,000 riflemen
Then, critically, assuming two-year conscription and that most of the riflemen are conscripts, and that we want at least the first two classes of conscripts fully ready mobilizable, we'll need another couple tens of thousands of rifles for them in the two years following.
Mid-1937: 31,500 rifles, ~56,000 riflemen
Production assumption: ramping up to 3000 rifles/year by the end of 1933
Force assumption: That we ramp up from ~15,000 rifle users to ~28,000 over the course of two years, from mid 1934 to mid 1936 (due to conscript training times. Note, this is still a lot slower than the government wants). ~6,500 rifle users per year
End of 1934: 21,000 rifles, ~18,250 riflemen
End of 1935: 24,000 rifles, ~24,750 riflemen
Mid-1936: 25,500 rifles, ~28,000 riflemen
Then, critically, assuming two-year conscription and that most of the riflemen are conscripts, and that we want at least the first two classes of conscripts fully ready mobilizable, we'll need another couple tens of thousands of rifles for them in the two years following.
Mid-1937: 31,500 rifles, ~56,000 riflemen
Given the previous report on rifles, it looks like the Enfield P17 or the SMLE would probably be the best options, and between them we may be more likely to get the American P17. While it would add the 30.06 round to the logistics burden, it's a round used in various MMGs/HMGs and the Carabineri and potentially marksmen have a use case for bigger guns.
Turn 3 Update said:Reports on Rifle Tests 1930
The rifle group acquired eighteen models of rifle considered potentially suitable as military weapons:
For comparison, the following rifle already in service with the Army was included in the tests:
- FN mle. 24, 7 mm
- FN mle. 24, 7.65 mm
- ZB vz.24, 7.92 mm
- Mannlicher M.95, 6.5 mm
- Mannlicher-Schönauer, 6.5 mm
- Arisaka Type 38, 6.5 mm
- ZH-29, 7.92 mm
- Vickers-Armstrong-Pedersen, 7 mm
- Bang M1927, 6.5 mm
- Bang M1927, 7.92 mm
- FN Browning fusil automatique, 7.65 mm
- Thompson Military Model, 11.43 mm
- Carcano mod.1891, 6.5 mm
- Enfield P17
- Ross Mk.III, 7.7 mm
- Short, Magazine, Lee-Enfield Mk.III, 7.7 mm
- Lebel Mle.1886 M93, 8 mm
- Mannlicher M.95/30, 8 mm
The rifles were tested for accuracy, hardiness, and general suitability. The panel was formed from members of the Rifle Group and marksmen seconded to the group by the Army. Testing included both precision and close-range shooting, as well as dirt and wear assessments. As such, the Rifle Group has reached a consensus and is able to recommend the following weapons as acceptable:
- Arisaka Type 30, 6.5 mm
These rifles are all distinguished by high quality, acceptable rates of fire at short range, and the ability to engage enemy forces accurately at long ranges. They all offer a 20-25% increase in point-blank range against man-sized targets over the current Type 30 rifle, and are also proven and affordable.
- FN mle.24
- ZB vz.24
- Arisaka Type 38 (with 1907 Type 38 Arisaka spitzer cartridge)
- Enfield P17
After significant deliberation, the Rifle Group has decided to recommend the Defence Council place orders for the Arisaka Type 38 and stocks of the improved Type 38 Arisaka spitzer round. While it does not offer the greatest possible increase in engagement ranges, it is the lightest of them, the most robust against dust, and requires no to minimal training for troops already familiar with the Type 30.
A dissenting minority wishes to instead recommend the Enfield P17 on the basis that it may be possible to acquire it for a significantly lower cost than new Type 38 rifles.
The Rifle Group tested a number of self-loading rifles as part of the review. None were considered acceptable for Reewiin's needs, but it is worth mentioning two nonetheless:
The following summarises the Rifle Group's principal objections to those rifles not already mentioned:
- FN Browning fusil automatique: This was the only self-loading weapon to meet the standards of accuracy and long-range fire set by the Rifle Group. It achieved similar results to the FN mle.24, with which it shares ammunition. However, it is technically complicated and excessively heavy at 7.2kg unloaded. It is also significantly more expensive to acquire than an equivalent factory-fresh bolt-action rifle. It is capable of sustained fire like a machine gun with acceptable accuracy at long ranges.
- ZH-29: This weapon was unable to match the accuracy of the Type 30 Arisaka. It is mechanically complicated, and while lighter than the FN Browning, it is still heavy at 5.3kg. While less expensive than the Browning, it is still significantly more costly than non-self-loading rifles.
Mannlicher M.95: No notable increase in capability compared to the Type 30.
Mannlicher-Schönauer: No notable increase in capability compared to the Type 30.
Vickers-Armstrong-Pedersen: This was the lightest self-loader but suffered numerous mechanical failures, especially when exposed to dust.
Bang M1927: Mechanically unreliable and inaccurate. Scorch marks were found inside the 7.92 mm calibre variant after firing. The 6.5 mm calibre variant offered no advantages in range compared to the Type 30.
Thompson Military Model: Heavy, expensive, somewhat unreliable, and severely lacking in range.
Carcano mod.1891: No notable increase in capability compared to the Type 30.
Ross Mk.III: Accurate but mechanically unreliable.
Short, Magazine, Lee-Enfield Mk.III: Cheap, and its 7.7 mm calibre is manufactured by our Japanese allies. Dropped from consideration as the Mauser-type rifles had better accuracy.
Lebel Mle.1886 M93: Met accuracy and range standards, but it was dropped from consideration as it could not be rapidly loaded with any kind of clip or detachable magazine.
Mannlicher M.95/30: Generally favourable comments, but it was dropped from consideration as the Mauser-type rifles had better accuracy.
Although, having written this based on assumptions, I once again remember that we have advisors for this: How much do the arms industry advisors think Type 38 production could be scaled up in the short term? @FrangibleCover
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