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East Africa 1930: An ORBAT Quest

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[X] Our military is not ready for the kinds of operations the Army or government has in mind.

This is my inclination, though I could switch it someone has a strong argument. It might cost us some love to be that blunt, but I don't think we're there yet, and I think using the still mostly Somali army to liberate Oromo people has some hidden cultural competence traps.
 
I'm leaning towards taking a bit of the south. The Government and Army seemingly want this, so I'm worried saying no will burn political capital we want saved up for later things. However, we really aren't in a good place to be too aggressive. Holding mountains, especially if the locals will support us, is far easier than winning a set-piece battle against a numerically superior enemy.
 
[ ] Our military is not ready for the kinds of operations the Army or government has in mind.
[ ] Our military is ready to seize parts of Southern Ethiopia and hold it against counterattack

I dunno, getting into a shooting war seems Bad.

On the other hand, the Ethiopian Army is probably just as bad off as we are. Also means we can see how our cattle logistics work in practice.
 
[x] Our military is ready to seize parts of Southern Ethiopia and hold it against counterattack
 
Something which may influence peoples' decisions, the northern border of Reewin extends to the Jubba river. If we decide to try and conduct a holding action in the region, we could send river boats to points along the Dawa and Gestro rivers directly from Kismayo, which would dramatically help Reewin logistics in the region. Likewise, if we're holding against a counterattack, the limited speed of our infantry is less of an issue - they'd be dug into static positions, and thus we could readily supply them with our oxen. Meanwhile, Ethiopia would have to move supplies over land.

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[x] Our military is ready to seize parts of Southern Ethiopia and hold it against counterattack
 
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[X] Our military is ready to seize parts of Southern Ethiopia and hold it against counterattack

Defence in depth! Reewin cannot fall if our enemies have to go through all of Africa first!
 
Considering Ethiopia is the closest thing we have to a potential ally in the region against the British this seems il conceived, annexing territory might also muck up our ethnic balance.
[X] Here's another idea offer to help the regime in suppressing the rebellion and use it to gain concessions from them.

Be neighborly and make friends I say, Ethiopia has some good international rep too.
 
C_Z said:
Something which may influence peoples' decisions, the northern border of Reewin extends to the Jubba river. If we decide to try and conduct a holding action in the region, we could send river boats to points along the Dawa and Gestro rivers directly from Kismayo, which would dramatically help Reewin logistics in the region. Likewise, if we're holding against a counterattack, the limited speed of our infantry is less of an issue - they'd be dug into static positions, and thus we could readily supply them with our oxen. Meanwhile, Ethiopia would have to move supplies over land.

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[x] Our military is ready to seize parts of Southern Ethiopia and hold it against counterattack
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Annexing territory would be an awful idea with our ethnic problems as well as our need a strong Ethiopia to heed off Mussolini's ambitions(and he wins in otl so lets no weaken them further) we would be next and any dissolution of Ethiopia would be VERY chaotic. Ethiopia in the 1930's was also trying to evade arm embargoes to increase its own power in other words we can make a killing selling to them why attack our potential best customers, the colonial nation wont take well to border adjustments anyhow.
 
I think the government is seriously underestimating the strength of an Ethiopian response. There's a high chance that the internal conflict is settled one way or another at Anchem. If that happens, whichever factions wins out will be pretty well positioned to raise a larger army and take a swing at us.

Our border is far enough from Addis Ababa that we might pull a territory seizure off as a fait accompli. Or we might even win a campaign. But our military's unreformed, and a battle could easily be 10k of ours against 20k or more of theirs. It's a very risky gambit.
 
natruska said:
I think the government is seriously underestimating the strength of an Ethiopian response. There's a high chance that the internal conflict is settled one way or another at Anchem. If that happens, whichever factions wins out will be pretty well positioned to raise a larger army and take a swing at us.

Our border is far enough from Addis Ababa that we might pull a territory seizure off as a fait accompli. Or we might even win a campaign. But our military's unreformed, and a battle could easily be 10k of ours against 20k or more of theirs. It's a very risky gambit.
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Yeah, it's a very big gamble. However, I worry about what the government will say if we're the lone dissenting voice; they're already starting to get mad at us and the President seems to be strongly advocating for a war of liberation. Meanwhile, the military's officer corps has been training in Japan, and that means they've probably picked up a bit of Japan's military culture in addition to all that other stuff. Those low-level officers are probably raring to go fight and are being told by their higher-ups that this is the ideal time to attack Ethiopia. Gekokujō is a constant concern.

If we were in complete control of the government, "don't get involved beyond maybe sending a volunteer brigade" would be the obvious choice. However, we're newly formed, our military culture is likely hostile to oversight, and the government wants to go; talking them down to a grab-and-hold option where we hopefully aren't fighting the whole of the Ethiopian Army (and if we do, it's on terms favourable to us) seems the best course IMO.
 
[x] Our military is ready to seize parts of Southern Ethiopia and hold it against counterattack
 
We're not being asked to make a decision on going to war or not, though, or even if we dissent from the government's preference. We are being asked a very specific, relatively pragmatic question:

Eukie said:
"Does the Defence Council consider the Army and the Carabinieri ready to support war and occupation if the government chooses that option?"
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War? Maybe. Occupation? God no.

If we say we're not ready, go to war, and it hurts, the government might be mad but they know we're honest. If we say we're not ready and we don't go to war, we've avoided potential disaster and the government agreed with us. Worst case - least likely imo - we say we're not ready and the war succeeds wildly, and we take some heat for being pessimists but also we've won a war and can still reap the benefits.

I'm afraid that our political support is far more endangered by encouraging the war and saying we're good for it and things going wrong then it is by any of the outcomes that come from encouraging caution and noting the military's real limits. I don't think we need to take the gamble.
 
C_Z said:
Yeah, it's a very big gamble. However, I worry about what the government will say if we're the lone dissenting voice; they're already starting to get mad at us and the President seems to be strongly advocating for a war of liberation. Meanwhile, the military's officer corps has been training in Japan, and that means they've probably picked up a bit of Japan's military culture in addition to all that other stuff. Those low-level officers are probably raring to go fight and are being told by their higher-ups that this is the ideal time to attack Ethiopia. Gekokujō is a constant concern.

If we were in complete control of the government, "don't get involved beyond maybe sending a volunteer brigade" would be the obvious choice. However, we're newly formed, our military culture is likely hostile to oversight, and the government wants to go; talking them down to a grab-and-hold option where we hopefully aren't fighting the whole of the Ethiopian Army (and if we do, it's on terms favourable to us) seems the best course IMO.
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The risk of from our officers is way lower then the risk of Ethiopian retaliation they are also geopolitically our buffer state weakening them is a BAD idea, if we want to placate our officers have them pick a side an gain the gratitude of the winner, it will both gain us an ally as well as concessions potentially, much more valuable then gaining territory of dubious value due, mucking our ethnic composition up as well the problems of managing our hinterland already annexing further hostile territory would be a disaster.
 
Eukie said:
The Japanese have promised significant investment as long as the new line remains in the old 3'6'' (1067mm) gauge and that engines be bought from Japan.
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Not great, but we need some physical proof we're working to counteract
Eukie said:
Members of the government have voiced concerns that we're spreading our footprint without actually achieving anything.
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Which is a fair critique, but we need time to make some Magic happen.
 
[x] Our military is ready to seize parts of Southern Ethiopia and hold it against counterattack

well with that 95 war roll on our side we'll get free clay huzzah.
 
Getting an attack on the first results turn has me nervous. Ethiopia is much larger than us too, right? They seem like they could put more of any type of resources into this fight. But if the battle is going well and we occupy the territory maybe we can scare them into a ceasefire? I don't know. My gut says "no" but my heart says "tally ho!" So for now I choose…


[X] Our military is not ready for the kinds of operations the Army or government has in mind.
 
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