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Avatar: The Last Dicebender (A:TLA/A:LOK Quest)

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[X] Yes Reroll.

[X] Plan Reach Firebending Level 7 ASAP

btw @DarkKing98 are you adding that firebending scroll and the 4 dex points for 10 cp?
also @Birdsie will you be adding the savage skill as a taunting skill?
 
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Without the reroll, if we get 3 Firebending Scrolls, we have a 43.45% chance of getting Firebending 7. WITH the Reroll (making no assumptions on the results of the reroll, accounting for all possibilities), it becomes 66.25% chance.

Getting 3 Firebending Scrolls still gets us a net 2 CP from that Ambition, and will help us a lot in successfully beating our Teacher in an Agni Kai, which will get us enough CP for Cosmic Energy

Edit: Probabilities attained thanks to This awesome website.
 
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DarkKing98 said:
[X] Plan Reach Firebending Level 7 ASAP
-[X] Master Shiko
-[X] Friends at School
-[X] Firebending x2
-[X] (Long-Term) Reach Level 7 of Firebending. (+30,000 XP, +26CP.)
-[X] (Mid-Term) Defeat Master Shiko in a friendly Agni Kai. (+8,000 XP, +12CP.)
-[X] (Mid-Term) Defeat Master Jirou in Pai Sho. (+7,000 XP, +16CP.)
-[X] (Short-Term) Step up your Pai Sho game. (+1,250 XP, +1CP, possible "item" rewards.)

Plan is open to suggestion and subject to change.
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Can you add in buying 3 Firebending Scrolls? That gives us a fair chance of reaching Level 7 Firebending, and has us still come out net-positive on CP. What's more, it makes us far more likely to actually beat Master Shiko in an Agni Kai, the CP from which will get us to 65
 
Trondason said:
Can you add in buying 3 Firebending Scrolls? That gives us a fair chance of reaching Level 7 Firebending, and has us still come out net-positive on CP. What's more, it makes us far more likely to actually beat Master Shiko in an Agni Kai, the CP from which will get us to 65
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If I am right, the Agni Kai would most likely be the training. Like 'let's go over these moves you found in those scrolls' thing.

Though it was stated it'd take 2-3 updates for the midterm goals to happen.

Hmmmm...

Is this chance on what an 'average' roll would be, or a above average roll?
 
DarkKing98 said:
If I am right, the Agni Kai would most likely be the training. Like 'let's go over these moves you found in those scrolls' thing.

Though it was stated it'd take 2-3 updates for the midterm goals to happen.

Hmmmm...

Is this chance on what an 'average' roll would be, or a above average roll?
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Sure, though we still have to beat her, which ain't gonna be easy. She's kickass.

As for what the 'average' roll is like, to answer that, here are 3 graphs.
The probability of any particular outcome


The probability of getting at least so much TP


The probability of getting at most so much TP
We need 114 TP to level up. Before the results of the reroll from our last training sessions, we got about a 44% chance of getting that much or more. You can look at where these probabilities came from, here.
 
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Trondason said:
Sure, though we still have to beat her, which ain't gonna be easy. She's kickass.

As for what the 'average' roll is like, to answer that, here are 3 graphs.
The probability of any particular outcome


The probability of getting at least so much TP
https://i.imgur.com/UQpo7bI.png

The probability of getting at most so much TP
[IMG]https://i.imgur.com/FNZI988.png

We need 114 TP to level up. Before the results of the reroll from our last training sessions, we got about a 44% chance of getting that much or more. You can look at where these probabilities came from, here.
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By average I meant average in the rolls. AKA around 50 per roll on a d100.
 
DarkKing98 said:
That is before the reroll, yes?
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It is regardless of the reroll. We will, on average, get 114.9 CP from 3 Scrolls and 3 Training Actions over the course of a Season.

The reroll effects the number we need to get to though. Currently, we need 114, but as we'll probably get more CP from the Re-roll, the number will go down. The probabilities of us achieving our goal of Firebending 7 of before and after were given earlier, as 43.45% and 66.25% respectively.
 
Trondason said:
It is regardless of the reroll. We will, on average, get 114.9 CP from 3 Scrolls and 3 Training Actions over the course of a Season.

The reroll effects the number we need to get to though. Currently, we need 114, but as we'll probably get more CP from the Re-roll, the number will go down. The probabilities of us achieving our goal of Firebending 7 of before and after were given earlier, as 43.45% and 66.25% respectively.
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I am not fond of anything below 90% typically. Though that's due to my own piss poor luck.

I'll consider it. You will get your answer in the morning.

Well, morning for me.
 
@DarkKing98 I have a suggestion for the plan, we can defeat Master Jirou at any other time, since he IIRC traveled with us to the fire nation, but the fire nation circus is an activity that doesn´t seem to really in any check, and that we cannot do in any other place than in the fire nation, so it may be better to try to win the Pai Shao next turn this we have also gotten extra intelligence points from our time in the school
Birdsie said:
[] (Mid-Term) See a Fire Nation circus show. (+6,000 XP, +7CP.)
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DarkKing98 said:
I am not fond of anything below 90% typically. Though that's due to my own piss poor luck.

I'll consider it. You will get your answer in the morning.

Well, morning for me.
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Despite this I woldn´t buy any scrolls, since Birdsie has reduced the turns to stations instead of years, I think that waiting a turn is worth a better CP profit.

Taka said:
So. When are we getting Dexterity and Charisma up to something resembling useful?
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We bought 16 Charisma points last turn, good enough for now

I totally see buying dexterity though...
 
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