ouch that poor elf cav got smacked.
Army of Liberty: a Fantasy Revolutionary Warfare Quest
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It seems like we've gotten into a worse position, not a better one, honestly.
mfw we're completely copying the OG King's plans on accident
LOL
Red Rationalist
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Okay, the third got routed. This is unfortunate, but the exchange is still net beneficial. The fact remains that we have 3 cavalry in play, they have 1 that just charged. Plus we got some lucky rolls with the enemy officers, even if the attack luck was generally shit. Alright, basic plan: The 4th is in an ideal position to charge 2 artillery units, the 24th and 30th respectively. We know the 17th moved this turn, while the halflings being around somewhere and having moved away from us. In fact, the move to rout the 3rd exposed a critical weakness in their defense, letting us charge right to the enemy artillery. Going to do some calculations later, but it's a promising position as we can annihilate 2 artillery units bordering 2 units of infantry.
Right now it's a question of a cav on cav charge with the 1st cuirassiers or a general one. Hmmm, I have to think about that one.
Right now it's a question of a cav on cav charge with the 1st cuirassiers or a general one. Hmmm, I have to think about that one.
Red Rationalist
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Alright, artillery annihilation with the 4th. We can actually move freely without artillery punishment, since all three artillery units decided to shoot last turn (6th on 1st, 24th on 2nd, 30th on 3rd) and have no actions prepared this round. This is somewhat reminiscent of Mauvais, actually. We get 12 movement, with us needing to destroy or rout the enemy. The second charge would fail if we don't destroy the enemy artillery, though that is fortunately improbable. We make a single attack with advantage at +20 from prof., no terrain modifiers and have a 74% of this working. This drops to a 63% in the village, though I also see a way around this.
Alternative option: Use the wolf guard to charge the remaining 17th Elv. Harq. from the west, then attack the 24th elv. art. With the wolf guard having an insane +50 attack, they physically can not fail to destroy the artillery unit. Routing of the 17th. harq. is unlikely, but this also brings an unexpected advantage: Melee protection against the artillery. Though to be fair, the enemy artillery might still decide this is worth it. Still, this exploitation allows a critical thing: Gaining momentum. With the destruction of the 24th certain, the 4th can freely charge the 6th with double advantage [incompetent, double adv] with a 77% of destruction and a second charge in the rear of any unit, which would also move us out of medium range for the 30th. Destroying 2 pieces of enemy artillery would give us a morale modifier of 6, which is pretty juicy. To be honest, I am quite tempted to do a charge just to pin the enemy and allow us to fully wreak havoc behind the enemy lines.
Overall verdict: Looks bad at the surface, but gives us all the needed to tools to destroy most of the enemy line with some mobile units.
Alternative option: Use the wolf guard to charge the remaining 17th Elv. Harq. from the west, then attack the 24th elv. art. With the wolf guard having an insane +50 attack, they physically can not fail to destroy the artillery unit. Routing of the 17th. harq. is unlikely, but this also brings an unexpected advantage: Melee protection against the artillery. Though to be fair, the enemy artillery might still decide this is worth it. Still, this exploitation allows a critical thing: Gaining momentum. With the destruction of the 24th certain, the 4th can freely charge the 6th with double advantage [incompetent, double adv] with a 77% of destruction and a second charge in the rear of any unit, which would also move us out of medium range for the 30th. Destroying 2 pieces of enemy artillery would give us a morale modifier of 6, which is pretty juicy. To be honest, I am quite tempted to do a charge just to pin the enemy and allow us to fully wreak havoc behind the enemy lines.
Overall verdict: Looks bad at the surface, but gives us all the needed to tools to destroy most of the enemy line with some mobile units.
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Chimeraguard
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Given their statline, I'm all for getting the Wolf Guard into melee as swiftly as possible, especially if it can be done with a charge from what I think would be a flank. That really plays into their strengths.
Red Rationalist
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@Photomajig : 2 questions:
1) The in melee status prevents any action but charging, moving or melee attacks. It's my assumption that melee attacks against units that weren't charged but are adjacent to the melee can be attacked. Is this assumption correct based on the rules?
2) Humans currently don't face any disadvantage from neighboring units being destroyed, only from them being routed. Is this intended or a oversight?
1) The in melee status prevents any action but charging, moving or melee attacks. It's my assumption that melee attacks against units that weren't charged but are adjacent to the melee can be attacked. Is this assumption correct based on the rules?
2) Humans currently don't face any disadvantage from neighboring units being destroyed, only from them being routed. Is this intended or a oversight?
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1) Yes, you can Attack adjacent Units when melee-engaged. Keep in mind that your Facing will change with the Attack, if your target's not right in front of you already.
2) Humans basically roll with double Disadvantage in that case; I'll note that in the rules.
@Photomajig, what does it mean to "destroy" a unit?
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Mostly, you stick sharp objects at high speeds at people until they stop moving. When you do this on a large enough scale, a lot of people stop moving. In this case, an Unit is Destroyed when it's reduced to 0 soldiers.
Red Rationalist
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Okay, additional relevant question: How likely is we can also rout the 17th Elv. Hussar via this exchange? The 17th Elv. Harq. faces the following attacks (Charge, Wolf| Fire, Siege Artillery) with the following morale checks if this plan works out [3* disadv. Wolf Charge, 2* disadv. unit destroyed]. Average casualties: 12, with a 75% of 100+ and virtual guarantuee of 50+.
Morale checks as follows:
1) Fire, 1d20+4 => 1d20+4, 15 => 2 stress
2) Charge, 3* disav => lowest 3d20+2, 12 => 4 stress
3) adj. artillery 1 destroyed => lowest 2d20-3 [stress + casulties]=> 4
4) adj. artillery 2 destroyed => lowest 2d20-7 => 58% of routing
5) shock in case of failure => lowest 2d20 -15 => Routed with 91%
Alright, the basic prediction tells us that we can reliably expect the other cavalry unit to rout, which would further damage morale among the 24th & turn momentum to our side from the expected 6 to the remarkable 8. This is certainly the needed boost to charge. To be honest, this makes the charge of the 24th almost mandatory, as they can be reliably routed. I'm to tired to finish the math properly, but a limited charge against the 24th can reasonably expect them to rout. We are remarkably close to taking a sledgehammer through the remaining lines, destroying nearly the entire southern line with cavalry units in the rear. Their desire to rout our cavalry instead of screening will prove to be a fatal mistake, allowing us to encircle.
Morale checks as follows:
1) Fire, 1d20+4 => 1d20+4, 15 => 2 stress
2) Charge, 3* disav => lowest 3d20+2, 12 => 4 stress
3) adj. artillery 1 destroyed => lowest 2d20-3 [stress + casulties]=> 4
4) adj. artillery 2 destroyed => lowest 2d20-7 => 58% of routing
5) shock in case of failure => lowest 2d20 -15 => Routed with 91%
Alright, the basic prediction tells us that we can reliably expect the other cavalry unit to rout, which would further damage morale among the 24th & turn momentum to our side from the expected 6 to the remarkable 8. This is certainly the needed boost to charge. To be honest, this makes the charge of the 24th almost mandatory, as they can be reliably routed. I'm to tired to finish the math properly, but a limited charge against the 24th can reasonably expect them to rout. We are remarkably close to taking a sledgehammer through the remaining lines, destroying nearly the entire southern line with cavalry units in the rear. Their desire to rout our cavalry instead of screening will prove to be a fatal mistake, allowing us to encircle.
I think there's a pretty decent chance that the enemy halfings will be blocking that spot.
Red Rationalist
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No actually. We know they fired on us (2AP) and then moved NW, meaning they are 1 NW+? of the road wood tiles. They will present a bit of potential problem next turn from potentially charging us in the rear, though I want to send the 1st Elv. Cuir. after them with a charge, to then subsequently pivot to further exploiting the gap. They can't block the wolf guard route.
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Red Rationalist
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Point of relevance after reviewing the combat logs: Morale checks work slightly different than I remembered from the prior versions. The number of them is independent of the attacks, but casulties trigger a sequence of morale checks for each stage reached. This does make shock quite potent, if luck dependant. I will have to redo some math, but I'm still fairly sure we can break the other evlen harquebusier.
Huh, guess I misread the movement direction. It is a bit odd that the enemy would leave their artillery and leftflank so exposed, but it seems like they didn't anticipate us shifting the whole army right.
Hmm, I agree with @Red Rationalist that the situation may look worse than it actually is. The enemy's artillery is undefended, and they have no Ready actions set up to intercept our cavalry. We can get one Unit of cavalry straight into their backline, and another attacking at the flank.
Personally I am partial to a full on charge with the infantry as well, in order to get into melee range and thus not allow their frontline to reposition to deal with our cavalry. Something like this:
View: https://imgur.com/a/FoH3PtV
EDIT: if we attack now, the enemy Nymphs may actually have to reposition to respond. We could do a Ready Action with the 2nd Cuirassiers to Charge the Nymphs if they leave their forest. This should catch them if they move West to counter-attack, or move East to reinforce their allies.
Personally I am partial to a full on charge with the infantry as well, in order to get into melee range and thus not allow their frontline to reposition to deal with our cavalry. Something like this:
View: https://imgur.com/a/FoH3PtV
EDIT: if we attack now, the enemy Nymphs may actually have to reposition to respond. We could do a Ready Action with the 2nd Cuirassiers to Charge the Nymphs if they leave their forest. This should catch them if they move West to counter-attack, or move East to reinforce their allies.
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I do like the idea of a full press. We've got a full view of their deployment now and their left flank is very open. Pressing it with both the infantry and the Cuirassiers and leaving the Nymphs out of position is a good move, and if we can dismantle their artillery and be in position to encircle them with the Cuirassiers next turn that's a pretty winning position.
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The full press is my first instinct too but we're sort of at an awkward range for it. Especially regarding their 52nd and 88th. A unit charging them won't have the AP to add in extra attacks so it'd be their one Charge vs probably getting ready-fired/possibly getting hit with 3 attacks on the enemy turn. Maybe worth it just to pin those units so our cavalry can run as wild as possible in the rear but, I dunno.
[X] Plan: Artillery Destruction
-[X] Anydice
-[X] Roy. Elv. Sie. Art.: Fire 17th Elv Har
-[X] 1st Elv. Cuir.: Move 5E, 3NE, Charge 6th Elv Art [49% to destroy]
-[X] 4th Elv. Cuir.: Charge 30th Elv Artillery from NW [29% to destroy]
-[X] Wolf Guard: Charge 24th Elv Art from SE and then Attack 17th Elv Har [95.59% to destroy Arty]
-[X] 2nd Hob Musk.: Charge 24th Hum, Attack 24th Hum
-[X] 4th Hob. Musk. Charge 24th Hum, Attack 24th Hum
-[X] 10th Elv. Musk.: Charge 88th Elv
-[X] 1st Hob Musk.: Charge 52nd Hum from SW
-[X] 3rd Hob Musk.: Ready Action: If 1st or 2nd Nym moves E or NE, charge 52nd Hum. However if any nymph charges or moves W or SW, charge the closest Nymph not in woods and if possible attack it.
-[X] 7th Elv. Musk.: Ready Action: If 1st or 2nd Nym moves E or NE, charge 52nd Hum. However if any nymph charges or moves W or SW, charge the closest Nymph not in woods and if possible attack it.
-[X] 2nd Elv. Cuir. Ready Action: If 1st or 2nd Nym moves E or NE, charge the 52nd Hum. However if any nymph charges or moves W or SW, charge the closest Nymph not in woods and if possible attack it.
Basic idea for this plan is to attack all of the enemy artillery, and hopefully either destroy or rout all of them. The Wolf Guard will charge the 24th Elv Art with at 95.59% chance to destroy them, and then attack the 17th Elv Har. The rest of the line will charge forth except for the 3rd Hob Musk, 7th Elv. Musk, 2nd Elv. Cuir who will respond to the actions if the Nyms, if they move West then we'll charge them to prevent any flank attacks. If any of the Nyms more East, we'll take advantage of that and charge the 52nd. I don't believe we should chace after them with our cavalry because one cavalry isn't going to do much to stop the Nymps moving East, and I'd prefer using our cavalry to do more attacks upon the 52nd and stack a bunch of morale checks upon that unit.
As for morale checks, I'm not sure how exactly to calculate the odds on those but for the 17th, we have a 65% chance to do at least 50 casualties with the artillery, and artillery+Wolf Guard has a 82.75% to do 100 casualties, 31.915 for 150 casualties. And with the the attacks on the artillery, it should maybe? be good enough to rout them. Though, I will try and figure out how to calc morale checks to check the odds. And I will also try to give the casualties odds for the rest of the units and a map soonish.
@Red Rationalist, how are you getting the odds for the morale checks, I'm not really parsing how you get the numbers from anydice to your conclusions.
-[X] Anydice
-[X] Roy. Elv. Sie. Art.: Fire 17th Elv Har
-[X] 1st Elv. Cuir.: Move 5E, 3NE, Charge 6th Elv Art [49% to destroy]
-[X] 4th Elv. Cuir.: Charge 30th Elv Artillery from NW [29% to destroy]
-[X] Wolf Guard: Charge 24th Elv Art from SE and then Attack 17th Elv Har [95.59% to destroy Arty]
-[X] 2nd Hob Musk.: Charge 24th Hum, Attack 24th Hum
-[X] 4th Hob. Musk. Charge 24th Hum, Attack 24th Hum
-[X] 10th Elv. Musk.: Charge 88th Elv
-[X] 1st Hob Musk.: Charge 52nd Hum from SW
-[X] 3rd Hob Musk.: Ready Action: If 1st or 2nd Nym moves E or NE, charge 52nd Hum. However if any nymph charges or moves W or SW, charge the closest Nymph not in woods and if possible attack it.
-[X] 7th Elv. Musk.: Ready Action: If 1st or 2nd Nym moves E or NE, charge 52nd Hum. However if any nymph charges or moves W or SW, charge the closest Nymph not in woods and if possible attack it.
-[X] 2nd Elv. Cuir. Ready Action: If 1st or 2nd Nym moves E or NE, charge the 52nd Hum. However if any nymph charges or moves W or SW, charge the closest Nymph not in woods and if possible attack it.
Basic idea for this plan is to attack all of the enemy artillery, and hopefully either destroy or rout all of them. The Wolf Guard will charge the 24th Elv Art with at 95.59% chance to destroy them, and then attack the 17th Elv Har. The rest of the line will charge forth except for the 3rd Hob Musk, 7th Elv. Musk, 2nd Elv. Cuir who will respond to the actions if the Nyms, if they move West then we'll charge them to prevent any flank attacks. If any of the Nyms more East, we'll take advantage of that and charge the 52nd. I don't believe we should chace after them with our cavalry because one cavalry isn't going to do much to stop the Nymps moving East, and I'd prefer using our cavalry to do more attacks upon the 52nd and stack a bunch of morale checks upon that unit.
As for morale checks, I'm not sure how exactly to calculate the odds on those but for the 17th, we have a 65% chance to do at least 50 casualties with the artillery, and artillery+Wolf Guard has a 82.75% to do 100 casualties, 31.915 for 150 casualties. And with the the attacks on the artillery, it should maybe? be good enough to rout them. Though, I will try and figure out how to calc morale checks to check the odds. And I will also try to give the casualties odds for the rest of the units and a map soonish.
@Red Rationalist, how are you getting the odds for the morale checks, I'm not really parsing how you get the numbers from anydice to your conclusions.
Red Rationalist
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I was just about to type out my own plan, hmm. I will see about the particular quirks in your plan, though we are likely mostly in agreement. Oh, and a friendly tip: I linked my inkscape file via google docs here:
If you want to make your own visualization, that would probably be helpful. A fairly quick way to illustrate things if you just use the pen tool and make a gray variant of the units. I can also upload the updated file for this turn with a bit more time, wasn't quite done yesterday.
To answer your question:
Morale checks are difficult to statistically model, since they are intended to be quite random. Additionally, they are interconnected, making the range of possibility rapidly spiral out (20 different outcomes per check-> 7-10 different stress results, 7-10 new individual rolls, which each start their new chain).
So the shortcut I'm using for approximating the outcome is rolling a 1d20 check with the relevant modifier and translate the statistical average (first number in brackets) into stress. Then I add the next check, with the updated modifier from stress. On the last roll, I calculate the probability of a rout if relevant. This system isn't perfect as it is hard to actually guarantee minimal probabilities, but it is decent enough. As we are just as likely to roll very low and very high, with deviations just adding or subtracting 1-2 stress, the rolls balances each other out with a sufficient number of checks. I used this shortcut for predicting the 17th Harq. rout this turn, which came true. It's a useful baseline for establishing the baseline necessary amount of damage to a unit.
I wanted to redo some math anyways, so I can crunch the numbers for your plan. It would just be the 17th harq. and the 24th human we expect to rout, right?
Addendum: Correction on your anydice math: Charging still carries an advantage on your attack roll if the unit doesn't brace (Though it is possible the artillery units braced/moved, which can be accounted for as a contingency), in addition to creating a disadvantaged morale test. So you're actually significantly underestimating our chances of destroying the artillery, including the fact you forgot the additional advantage from attacking an incompetent unit (6th Elv. Art.) Correcting for this oversight, we get a 87% to destroy the 6th & a 50% of destroying the 30th Elv Art. Respectable and it would prevent the enemy from getting any shots in.
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That seems like a decent plan, although the 1st Hob are sitting at 19 Stress and are likely to route on the next Morale Check. It might be better to leave them out of the charge and let them Rest to get rid of that Stress instead? If they Rout, they will swing Momentum against us and may trigger Morale Checks in adjacent units.
@Photomajig , are you accepting submissions for the Correspondence Corner already?
I would be interested in writing a letter from some journalist working on an article on the highly controversial yet effective General Durand to Raka's father. I'd imagine they would be asking about her father's perspective on Raka's childhood, personality and military career.
Red Rationalist
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Alright, time for a slightly cleaned version of EagerListeners plan. I kept almost all things the same, except for moving the basically shattered 1st Hob Musk. back and switching the order of the Wolf Guard attacks to make more sense (charge 17th Elv Harq., then melee attack artillery). This substantially raises the chance of routing the last remaining cavalry unit, while still ensuring the annihilation of enemy artillery on account of the monsterous +50 bonus.
[X] Plan: Methodical Artillery Destruction
-[X] Visualization
-[X] Roy. Elv. Sie. Art.: Fire 17th Elv Har
-[X] 1st Elv. Cuir.: Move 5E, 4NE, Charge 6th Elv Art
-[X] 4th Elv. Cuir.: Charge 30th Elv Artillery from NW [29% to destroy]
-[X] Wolf Guard: Charge Attack 17th Elv Hart from E and then melee 24th Elv Ar [95.59% to destroy Arty]
-[X] 2nd Hob Musk.: Charge 24th Hum, Attack 24th Hum
-[X] 4th Hob. Musk. Charge 24th Hum, Attack 24th Hum
-[X] 10th Elv. Musk.: Charge 88th Elv
-[X] 1st Hob Musk.: Move SE, Brace (planning to rest the unit next turn)
-[X] 3rd Hob Musk.: Ready Action: 3*Charge IF Nymphs move out of woods into range
-[X] 7th Elv. Musk.: Ready Action: 3*Charge IF Nymphs move out of woods into range
-[X] 2nd Elv. Cuir. Charge, Melee [E, 4*SE, E, 2*NE]
Basically the same plan. Casulties from our frontal assault are likely to be high (short ranged fire + counterattack from brace, followed by melee attacks) but the sheer momentum gained the same turn will make up for it. Destruction of 2 enemy artillery is probable, which would then allow our cavalry to fall into the enemy flank. A simple approach that prioritizes the annihilation of enemy artillery, followed by a sever exploiting of the enemy flank.
[X] Plan: Methodical Artillery Destruction
-[X] Visualization
-[X] Roy. Elv. Sie. Art.: Fire 17th Elv Har
-[X] 1st Elv. Cuir.: Move 5E, 4NE, Charge 6th Elv Art
-[X] 4th Elv. Cuir.: Charge 30th Elv Artillery from NW [29% to destroy]
-[X] Wolf Guard: Charge Attack 17th Elv Hart from E and then melee 24th Elv Ar [95.59% to destroy Arty]
-[X] 2nd Hob Musk.: Charge 24th Hum, Attack 24th Hum
-[X] 4th Hob. Musk. Charge 24th Hum, Attack 24th Hum
-[X] 10th Elv. Musk.: Charge 88th Elv
-[X] 1st Hob Musk.: Move SE, Brace (planning to rest the unit next turn)
-[X] 3rd Hob Musk.: Ready Action: 3*Charge IF Nymphs move out of woods into range
-[X] 7th Elv. Musk.: Ready Action: 3*Charge IF Nymphs move out of woods into range
-[X] 2nd Elv. Cuir. Charge, Melee [E, 4*SE, E, 2*NE]
Basically the same plan. Casulties from our frontal assault are likely to be high (short ranged fire + counterattack from brace, followed by melee attacks) but the sheer momentum gained the same turn will make up for it. Destruction of 2 enemy artillery is probable, which would then allow our cavalry to fall into the enemy flank. A simple approach that prioritizes the annihilation of enemy artillery, followed by a sever exploiting of the enemy flank.
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Otherwise looks good, but why not rest them now? The enemy will be too busy dealing with our charge to concern themselves with this one unit that is resting. Resting them now would allow them to go back to combat 1 turn earlier, which may end up being important since we will take a lot of damage on that charge.
Red Rationalist
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Resting isn't allowed if you were attacked last turn and takes 3 AP. It's not possible for the 1st Hobs.