- Location
- The Old Dominion
His wife Sophia was also Czech which also likely had an influence I'd supect.
Alt History ideas, rec and general discussion thread
- Thread starter Teen Spirit
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His wife Sophia was also Czech which also likely had an influence I'd supect.
I'm given to understand that the hostility between the Hungarians and Franz Ferdinand was somewhat overstated towards the end of Franz Ferdinand's life, and he seems to have moved from the idea of more expansive reforms; possibly because he knew he wouldn't have the leverage.
Even with the fear of the Hungarian magnates revolting; you would need a Hapsburg dynasty that wasn't constantly moving diagonally from uncle to nephew to get the sort of reforms that Franz Ferdinand's circle were thinking of.
The above might have been more stable in theory than two very large multi-ethnic empires that really don't like each other being in a somewhat unsteady personal union; but it would do nothing for the robustness of the Hapsburg armies, the obvious gerrymandering in favor of Germans, their absolutism, their dynastic instability, and the fact that Serbia, Russia and Romania all had designs on the empire's territories.
Even with the fear of the Hungarian magnates revolting; you would need a Hapsburg dynasty that wasn't constantly moving diagonally from uncle to nephew to get the sort of reforms that Franz Ferdinand's circle were thinking of.
German "Democratic" "Republic" and "People's" "Democratic" "Republic" of Korea.
One wound up the poorer bit of a prosperous-ish, democratic-ish, nation with minimal violence. The other's ruling party tripled down on the totalitarian police state aspect, got rather esoteric in terms of political philosophy, and swings its military around to gettribute international aid.
One wound up the poorer bit of a prosperous-ish, democratic-ish, nation with minimal violence. The other's ruling party tripled down on the totalitarian police state aspect, got rather esoteric in terms of political philosophy, and swings its military around to get
- A) How does one switch those fates around?
- B) What knock-on effects would that have in Europe and East Asia?
For the GDR to be better off would require the USSR to have been better governed. It was not an accident that the Stasi was one if the largest secret policies ever created and that the GDR died within mere years of the Soviets withdrawing their support. Needless to say, predicting the side effects of a more competent Soviet Union basically isnt really possible without figuring out how they pulled it off....and since we are discussing a 40 year long period that is itself basically impossible to determine since the list of ways they can pull it off is so varied. But there is one thing that is certain: It WILL drastically change the events of 1991.
The Kim Dynansty meanwhile has a interesting advantage here: It was so quite to establish total control, meaning it is in a much better situation to pivot as the Kim Dynasty desires. They could have pushed things toward a path that lead to a more prosperous NK if they so wished, they just have zero reason to care. As for impact? Basically just results in a NK that isnt constantly demanding aid from elsewhere and a heavier garrisoned border on both sides of the Armistice Line.
Would people have more respect for the Kims if they'd just commissioned some regalia and made themselves an outright monarchy after the Cold War ended, or would that have more likely pissed off China?
- Location
- Austin
- Pronouns
- She/They
Well for one it would have rapidly accelerated the start of the Civil War what with New England threatening succession if the US took too much of Mexico as well as trying to impose slavery in the former Mexican Territory (California was a free state because of it extends above 36°30' N)So what would you realistically expect would have been the impact on both the United States and Mexico if the US had gone farther with it's annexations after the Mexican-American War?
Ignore Cuba
King Washington
Semi-Depressed Lurker
- Location
- Indiana
So, had Poland completely fallen to the Soviets in 1920/21, with a satellite polish government installed and Germany's eastern territories more or less restored to the 1914 status quo, yet Hitler still managed to rise to power (which is... questionable in terms of plausibility given the amount of butterflies but let's just go with it), how does this effect the expansionist ambitions of Nazi Germany if the Soviets are already on the border from the get-go?
Mandemon
Gentlemen, I love brawl.
- Location
- Cookie Jar
Two possibilities.
1)Hitler starts the war the USSR, since expansion to east was always the plan, which Britain and France allow since as far as they see, it's two of their enemies fighting each others. As for which side would win... unknown. Too many butterflies to say.
2) Hitler starts war with France, but doesn't pursue occupation. Instead he just takes back former German territories and sues for peace. With the territorial goals achieved (assuming France and Britain accept the peace), he will fully focus on USSR.
Not sure if Nazis would invade Denmark and Norway in this timeline, since originally those were taken to deny British an access.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
I don't think the Soviets being immediately bordering the Reich would change the goal for the Nazis, they were always going to invade to grab Lebensraum and a bigger Soviet bloc pre-WWII wouldn't deter them considering all the gambles and risks they took OTL.
What would be interesting is the Allies. A Red Poland backed by a bigger Soviet Union is probably going to change the calculus regarding Germany's rearmament and the policy of appeasement in favor of a stronger Germany, given the Nazi's violent anti-Communism. Maybe the Allies agree to a non-aggression pact with the Nazis so that both sides don't have to worry about the German border. I doubt that the Allies would join up in Germany's alt-Barbarossa, but would instead be on the sidelines while the Nazis and Soviets fought, building their strength in case either side scored a knockout blow with minimal damage to war industry and manpower and decided to look west.
What would be interesting is the Allies. A Red Poland backed by a bigger Soviet Union is probably going to change the calculus regarding Germany's rearmament and the policy of appeasement in favor of a stronger Germany, given the Nazi's violent anti-Communism. Maybe the Allies agree to a non-aggression pact with the Nazis so that both sides don't have to worry about the German border. I doubt that the Allies would join up in Germany's alt-Barbarossa, but would instead be on the sidelines while the Nazis and Soviets fought, building their strength in case either side scored a knockout blow with minimal damage to war industry and manpower and decided to look west.
Mandemon
Gentlemen, I love brawl.
- Location
- Cookie Jar
Honestly, way I see it is that with Soviets gobbling up Poland, western powers will be:
"I don't exactly like you, but I rather sic you at the commies than fight myself"
Basically, hope that Soviets and Nazis fight and exhaust each others. France will hope to use this as opportunity to ensure Germany is never a threat, while Britain will try to use it to create a balance of power beneficial for themselves by breaking up power blocks.
"I don't exactly like you, but I rather sic you at the commies than fight myself"
Basically, hope that Soviets and Nazis fight and exhaust each others. France will hope to use this as opportunity to ensure Germany is never a threat, while Britain will try to use it to create a balance of power beneficial for themselves by breaking up power blocks.
Basically our world but TNO-ized . So OTL but accelerated a bit.
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- Location
- France
- Pronouns
- She/They
The DPRK actually had an all right start, at least relative to its situation. It went downhill fast when it couldn't manage its position within the decline of the communist block and the generational transition of power within the ruling family. The easiest way to solve it is to have it pivot towards China earlier, since the PRC as a patron survived the USSR. As an autarky state there isn't much hope. Not sure how much better it can get that way though, best you'll get that way is a sweatshop for things the Chinese economy has grown too developed to bother producing itself.
The ROK is much easier to revert, just have small mess up around opening up giving a less stable business environment and it'll spiral down into a loop of coups and countercoups like less successful post dictatorship countries.
- Location
- The Final Frontier
The GDR surviving would be fascinating. One of the things that I find really interesting is that the GDR didn't expect that the wall coming down would necessarily lead to reunification. In Stasiland, the author points out that even after the Wall came down, the regime printed, of all things, pinup calendars for the border troops. Now, if you think your state is about to fall, are you going to be spending a lot of time on softcore porn photoshoots for the troops? And the state never really sent the Stasi and the NVA into the streets in 1989. I think there's absolutely a world where the GDR responded to their protests a la Tianamen Square, and there's a authoritarian dictatorship - communist in name only - in the center of Europe to this day.
Thats only likely to work long term if it encourages the other pact leaders to hold their ground against the protests (and I guess encourage the CPSU hardliners to come up with a less clownshoes plan for a coup?)
Because otherwise is the GDR not going to find itself simultaneously surrounded (and self preservation is going to put Yeltsin's Russia as one of the surrounding hostile players) and, even without Ceaușescu's fate in mind; very isolated unless it suddenly discovers 'socialism with German characteristics'?
All that said, from my distant German cousins I gather Bonn wouldn't be all that heartbroken at not taking on the costs of reunification in the long run.
Because otherwise is the GDR not going to find itself simultaneously surrounded (and self preservation is going to put Yeltsin's Russia as one of the surrounding hostile players) and, even without Ceaușescu's fate in mind; very isolated unless it suddenly discovers 'socialism with German characteristics'?
All that said, from my distant German cousins I gather Bonn wouldn't be all that heartbroken at not taking on the costs of reunification in the long run.
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Thing is...the reason many pact nations didnt stand their ground was the fact it was clear that Moscow was not going to rush to their aid. Soviet Troops had been a reliable source of jackboots thanks to not being from their nation. And without that? All Warsaw Pact Nations had was troops of potentially dubious loyalty. Something that Ceaușescu learned the hard way. And well...part of why the Soviets werent providing that aid was they couldnt really afford the cost anymore. Which really is just a long way of saying they needed a more competent Soviet Union. And that means a change well over a decade beforehand...but more realistically 2 to 3 decades previously. At which point we shouldnt even assume we see the OTL protests occur.
- Location
- The Final Frontier
Right; Gorby was telling Hoenecker to reform. But I don't think it's impossible to imagine a world where the GDR stays on for thirty more years because they started actually using those Stasi files to actually shoot people, instead of just making lists of people they should shoot. The Stasi had a 'Plan X,' to detain 90,000 East Germans in concentration camps. Now, by the time they sent the order to do it, it was too late. But if they sent that order out six months earlier, who knows?
Thing is...that STILL fails the initial prompt. They still end up the poorer half of Germany 30 years later and in any ways just turns them into German North Korea in the meantime. The prompt is to see what the GDR needs to switch that fate around and be at least as wealthy per capita as the west. Reforms NEED to occur decades earlier and they have to happen in both the GDR and the Soviet Union(otherwise the soviets likely just crush the reform attempt anyways) if the GDR wishes to last and to also be prosperious.
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That is an interesting take, but I was asking about something closer to "WI Korea Reunifies while East Germany Doubles Down."
Um, no. By no means was I considering DDR prosperity a prerequisite... just enough guns and stubborn belligerence to keep going as its own thing (how functional is, very much optional) for a few decades more.
And for that matter, after that much more time how eager would Bonn before reunification? I know Seoul's vision of reunifying the peninsula is more and more hypothetical even if Pyongyang were offering favorable deals on the matter.
I mean; you could rules lawyer the prompt to have a German Democratic Republic that is "prosperous-ish, democratic-ish, nation with minimal violence" where they haven't got round/haven't been let change the name or unify with the FRG despite the Socialist Unity party having fallen?
Perhaps Maggie Thatcher (seen here stealing children's milk in this 17th century woodcut) is able to rally more support to her panic about German re-unification?
Both Germanies are doing fine-ish, both in NATO, both in EU; just not allow even float the idea of unifying (the idea that being in the EU and Schengen etc removes the need for the FRG & GDR to formally unify etc etc)
Perhaps Maggie Thatcher (seen here stealing children's milk in this 17th century woodcut) is able to rally more support to her panic about German re-unification?
Both Germanies are doing fine-ish, both in NATO, both in EU; just not allow even float the idea of unifying (the idea that being in the EU and Schengen etc removes the need for the FRG & GDR to formally unify etc etc)
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- Location
- The Midlands.
That would mean she likely wasn't on the outs with the Conservative Party by the early 90s, which could make for an interesting timeline in itself.
- Location
- The Final Frontier
I mean, I don't think that the GDR could become as wealthy as the FRG while still being the GDR because communism doesn't actually work. I guess you could have them discover Communism With German Characteristics like China, and just become capitalist but pretend you aren't?
Mandemon
Gentlemen, I love brawl.
- Location
- Cookie Jar
Well, I can think one minor way you could have change.
There is no "To my knowledge, effectively immediatly. Without delay." moment. Those words are what basically killed Berlin Wall and set off the dominoes.
Press released regarding new travel laws is held on November 10 as intented, or Schabowski is given details about it so he says so, so instead of mad rush of people going "OH SHIT WE BETTER MOVE BEFORE THEY CHANGE THEIR MIND" and rushing the checkpoints, there is significantly more controlled opening of the border. Unification was not on table for either side, really, but shit got out of hand when the border checkpoints got overwhelmed by people wanting get through and things escalated from there before any party official realized what was happening. And when they finally did, it was too late to stop.
But now it's a lot more controlled. This would give DDR (and I refuse to use term GDR, my entirely I grew up with it being called DDR, and by yesterday's pizza I will call it that!) time to actually get stuff done and do reforms. Unification might still happen, but this would buy time for DDR, so it might survive another decade or two as both sides prepare for unification and harmonize things between themselves. Or agree to stay separate, but with open borders.
There is no "To my knowledge, effectively immediatly. Without delay." moment. Those words are what basically killed Berlin Wall and set off the dominoes.
Press released regarding new travel laws is held on November 10 as intented, or Schabowski is given details about it so he says so, so instead of mad rush of people going "OH SHIT WE BETTER MOVE BEFORE THEY CHANGE THEIR MIND" and rushing the checkpoints, there is significantly more controlled opening of the border. Unification was not on table for either side, really, but shit got out of hand when the border checkpoints got overwhelmed by people wanting get through and things escalated from there before any party official realized what was happening. And when they finally did, it was too late to stop.
But now it's a lot more controlled. This would give DDR (and I refuse to use term GDR, my entirely I grew up with it being called DDR, and by yesterday's pizza I will call it that!) time to actually get stuff done and do reforms. Unification might still happen, but this would buy time for DDR, so it might survive another decade or two as both sides prepare for unification and harmonize things between themselves. Or agree to stay separate, but with open borders.
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The Thing That Would Not Leave: An Eldritch Thatcher timeline?
Axslashel
I am a pessimist not a realist.
- Location
- Land of the Midnight Sun
Germany would need to overrun Paris and completely break France to get them to accept such a peace. And at that point they might as well ask for everything. The Nazis were not known for their restraint.
There is actually an alt-history where the Warsaw pact collapses while the DDR soldiers on for many years afterwards while becoming more and more dystopian. The problem is that the alt-history is Muv-Luv and the event that causes the Warsaw pact and the USSR to collapse is an alien invasion.
And here I thought the initial prompt was that North Korea and East Germany switched places in how they developed.
- Location
- The Midlands.
I wouldn't nrecessarily go that far, but it'd be fascinating to explore the ramifications of the New Labour movement having to deal with her instead of a relative nonentity like Major.