That's not what I was doing - I was asking if your preferred vote would change, if your risk estimates were similar to mine. And I'm mostly asking because you seem to be feeling kind of cheated, and I'd like to help with that.
(Although, if that isn't what's going on, and you just want to use the wish on a really cool fight or something, I can respect that.)

As for my evidence?
Given that we have a fair bit more than 30 Arete, we shouldn't need more than one or two picks. So we just need one decent fight - or to win a high-stakes negotiation. Heck, with the time pressure in place, just figuring out a door-puzzle might be enough. (It'd have to be a thematically appropriate door-puzzle, though.)
*The power from one-pick fights can be saved; we've seen this repeatedly. (I think we saw this most recently on the way to the Realm of Myth.) And we have one pick unaccounted for. So the obvious thing for Hunger to have done with it, in light of the Apocryphal Curse, is to have banked it for an emergency flash-buy.
If that is what he did, any one-pick fight would let us at least see Once and Future III, which might be enough to win on its' own - depending on what it does.
*We're at nine Letrizia pluses, and the time seems fairly appropriate both for getting the tenth, and for unlocking Super Juggernaut Undead Chimera. I've heard it won't actually give us a Shroud, but it would give us Military Rank 11 (or to be more specific, Base Rank 9.018125) and +100% to two stats (probably Agility and Charisma). Which really should be enough to win, or else OaF II is an outright liability.
*As such, I would expect three dangerous rolls max. One for target selection (perhaps there are genuinely threatening Chromatic Aberrations, even now), one for diplomancing the Arcanist, and one for miscellaneous dangers. We apparently had somewhat appropriate social stats for talking to her before Winter King and Renaissance Woman, and we're considerably better at that by now. I'd guess she was a 3.5 pick social negotiation before, and now she's 3.0.
So, not zero risk, but not multiple digit death chance.
Sorry, I had misread your post. I don't really have the spare brains to try and calculate out how my stance would change assuming that I was evaluating things with your estimates of risk, but I'll try again tomorrow.

I don't question our ability to find something, I question our ability to find something that isn't itself a meaningful risk, in the very short timespan we have before the armament arrives. Consequently the ability to buy things afterwards is, IMO, outweighed by the fact that we now have two fights, both of which might potentially proc the defensive wish.

SJUC probably will make winning against the armament much easier, though I suspect that would almost be entirely due to the increased rank, as an additional +100% multiplier on top of Hunger's relatively large Agility and Charisma multipliers would amount to something more like a x1.3 increase actual stat, IIRC. I am not convinced that we're going to have a good opportunity to get another +Letrizia that isn't quite costly, though.

And I still just think that there's too much risk involved in trying to contact the shade. We haven't ever gotten hard numbers of the survivability of her tomb and that worries me.
 
I don't question our ability to find something, I question our ability to find something that isn't itself a meaningful risk, in the very short timespan we have before the armament arrives. Consequently the ability to buy things afterwards is, IMO, outweighed by the fact that we now have two fights, both of which might potentially proc the defensive wish.
We don't know what makes a four-pick versus what makes a five-pick. Vanreir was a four-pick, and apparently quite risky, even after our tactic storm. I'm going to presume 'quite risky' means 'equal to or grater than 40% loss chance', and that the unmodified odds were something like 70%.
My understanding is that four rerolls would make an unmodified four-pick into a >=76% win rate, but would only make a five-pick (guessed optimistically at 90%) into a ~34% chance of winning. And that an EFB or two could drop the ~90% death chance of a five-pick to the ~5% death chance of a three-pick.
Furthermore, I don't know the DC for a good hunting result, but I expect it isn't terribly high. Low enough that we shouldn't be facing a four-pick, let alone burning four rerolls to do so. The cumulative death chances from two three-pick fights? Just over 9%, unmitigated.

We're going to be facing meaningful risks either way, but we're only going into overwhelming risk with Hold The Line, and meaningful risk can be eaten by cheaper resources than overwhelming risk can. Make sense?
 
Could Procyon beat Zang Kong? :thonk:

I think Kong's got a pretty good matchup against Procyon. He's strong against Rank users in general since his Reality Effects or Heterodox enhancements grant him a significant power over the soul and mind, which might also help him defend against Procyon's Shroud effects, at least while outside the latter's radius of control. And he'd be pretty hard to move into that radius given mastery over space. Combine that with his comparable stats or greater stats and the Brand broadcasting Procyon's intentions and I don't think it's super likely for the Armament to win that fight, even if he had Ceathlynn piloting him.
 
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I think Kong's got a pretty good matchup against Procyon. He's strong against Rank users in general since his Reality Effects or Heterodox enhancements grant him a significant power over the soul and mind, which might also help him defend against Procyon's Shroud effects, at least while outside the latter's radius of control. And he'd be pretty hard to move into that radius given mastery over space. Combine that with his comparable stats or greater stats and the Brand broadcasting Procyon's intentions and I don't think it's super likely for the Armament to win that fight, even if he had a Ceathlynn piloting him.

Procyon with which pilot, against Zang Kong at which point in the storyline, are highly relevant as well here!
 
Other possible Progression starting abilities (618 Words)

As my character writing falls flat I must replace it with developing superpowers. Did not feel right not contributing for this long.


[ ] Chances Taken - Fortune Never Lost

You will have the capacity to manipulate fate in a limited manner. You will begin with the ability to sense fortune that would have never taken place and have the ability to force their occurrence. Your sense will be vague merely telling you what exactly the opportunity is in a few words and the magnitude of it.

For example, while running from a pursuer you notice a bright amount of possible fortune and decided to use your Remittance, and as a result, will receive the words Survival East Savior High for telling you how running east will help you stumble upon a person who would greatly aid you with your pursuers rather than simply running North as you originally planned.

Conversely, you are also able to sense misfortune with all hostile actions and other deleterious events being far more noticeable to you with their direction even being included. Your Remittance can also be used to force away these unfortunate events but will be at a far greater cost than forcing fortunes.

You will gain a source of energy used to force these occurrences with the magnitude of the event scaling with the amount of energy taken. Large consecutive uses in a short time span will take increasingly more than the normal amount, and overuse will lead to the active portion of the Remittance going into cool down.


[ ] Arms of Opposition

Your arms now have the capacity to gain and amplify abilities in opposition to the other. Upon activation of this Remittance, you may divide opposing skills and abilities among your two arms with both arms greatly boosting the end result. Giving the left arm swordsmanship and the right medicine will see the left arm moving faster with the blows causing far greater harm and the overall skill going up, the right will move slowly and more surely with the effects of the care being far more than they should've been. Supernatural abilities will likewise take the same course. You may also divide a skill or supernatural ability such as giving the right arm blocking with a sword and the other attacking with it or dividing a heat-based power into two with one excelling in offensive fiery blasts and the other defensive walls of frost.

The overall effects scale with how much they are the opposite of the other. Upon activation, this Remittance will last until dismissal. You are also now ambidextrous and far more skilled with your hands than you otherwise would've been before.


[ ] The Divine Sun

Become the embodiment of a divine sun. Obtain two distinct abilities; the capacity to expel and control flame and heat, and lay blessings upon others. All forms of flame and heat originate from the body and such usage will drain the body of its warmth. Blessings include amplification of base attributes and even specific abilities though the more varied the blessing is the less powerful it is.

Upon obtainment of the Remittance choose up to 7 virtues and 7 sins. Your abilities will work in a superior manner dependent on your will and the target's virtues and sins. Those allies to you who have your virtues would have the blessings they receive magnified multiplicatively based on their virtues. Your foes will also likewise receive more harm from the possession of your designated sins. A detriment is that the benefit of every virtue is countered by a sin with the inverse also being true regardless of the subject's relation to the user. Every year you may change out the Virtues and Sins.


[X] Call Up
 
Strategy: Get in the robot!

Being a Praehihr like Hunger offers some advantage in piloting the mech, one that a mortal like Letrizia doesn't get.

Letrizia Artriez - Proxy Implement. Letrizia Artriez now counts as a Praehihr for purposes of operating Verschlengorge, the Devouring Implement. Upgrades Sharpbright to True Sharpbright, massively increasing its power and utility in every scenario.

His existing Rank (and almost certainly his stats as well) synergize for a further advantage. Again, Letrizia has human stats and a pretty low rank, so this is a huge advantage.

You can do this geas quest without ever gaining substantial mech piloting skill, but mech piloting has fairly decent synergy with Accretion and is a good lever for multiplying your power.

While Hunger lacks Letrizia's experience with piloting his rank and stats are so absurdly high that I think he can pick it up pretty quick. He also knows exactly what good piloting looks like. Letrizia has spent her entire life training to pilot, and she practices fighting Hunger, so he's seen what to do. He may also have trained in piloting Versch during a time skip or learned more during casual conversation with Letrizia.

Of course, true mastery requires something more than just practice time.

Learn to Pilot alone is still pretty basic, you can of course raise the piloting skill in actual combat as well once you know the basics. Communing with the mech could also be important to the process if you seek true mastery.

Normally when we think of communion we think of quiet evenings in peaceful, low-light settings. But Versch is a being of combat and war. I think a communion held just before, or during, a giant life or death battle is the best sort of communion possible for a being like Versch.

Having Hunger pilot Versch while Letrizia just hangs around and waits to see if she lives or dies is a bummer since it makes her even more useless to the plot than usual but whatever, we gotta win here.



Strategy: Walls, Armaments, and the Secrets of the Foremost

It's quite clear that there are secrets to the Armaments that we remain unaware of.

the Arcanist might have some insight into the nature of Armaments in general
The same blue that manifested about his blade was reflected in Verschlengorge's internal runes. Its eyes had shifted that color when it had addressed Hunger as Praehihr. In some way these were connected, Verschlengorge's Curse of Decimation and the fact that it was designed with a bonded Cursebearer in mind, the blue of his Blade and its eyes, some connection, even if faint to the point of disappearing, between the Foremost and the Accursed...

"What are you hiding?" He asked finally, turning upwards to look at the toothily-grinning giant. "What's the meaning of that liminal blue? If this is a power associated with Cursebearers, why did the Forebear have it? Or did my imitation of the Forebear's technique only incidentally unlock something within me that all Cursebearers can access?"

So learning more about Armaments in general opens many possibilities here. Maybe Armaments are weak to the Praxis, maybe Armaments piloted by mere mortals and not by a Praehihr have some weakness we can exploit (remember the time Augustine trivially kidnapped Versch?), maybe mitigating their curses weakens them.

Another possibility is to use another Foremost creation we have available, the Walls of Myth. Both Walls and Armaments were built by the Foremost using the same design, blue praxis runes drawn in golden Findross. And remember, an Armament with a Cursebearer can do things that would be impossible for anyone else.

"Ereadhihr, the Elder Implement. They weren't just a weapon to the Foremost. The Foremost could harness them for countless tasks, bend realms both physical and Astral to their whims, apply the Interdict of Cognition that immunizes us from rampant intelligences, and so much more!"

It's possible that the walls have some secret, unknown power that we can waken using Versch. Obviously the Foremost were aware of the Armaments, and the Walls of Myth are naturally sturdy enough to resist an Armament for some time, so it's possible they installed some further anti-armament power that we can activate.

As for getting these secrets there's really only a couple possibilities; the Arcanist, the oracle spirit we summoned last time, and convincing Versch to get talkative. The Arcanist is an absurdly huge risk, the Oracle Spirit takes time to summon, and Versch may not know or talk, but I'm sure between the three of them we can get something.
 
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Strategy: Versch Wears the Armor of Midnight

The write-up for Armor talks a lot about the wielder of the armor, but at no point does it require that the wielder and the caster be the same person. So it's possible Hunger could give the Armor to Versch, then pilot Versch.

Another possibility is that when the pilot does their merger-thing with the Armament status effects and magics move over and apply to both. If the Foremost made both Armaments and our well sorcery then some synergy is likely since the magic will have been designed for it.

It might even be possible to pay the 0.1 rank cost using Versch's rank and not Hunger's. Given how incredibly easy it is for people like Ber/Augustine/Arcanist to slurp out the magical power of Armaments to do their stuff, and how Armaments are supposed to be used as tools for more than just battle, it's possible that the Foremost intentionally designed Armaments as power sources. I wouldn't count on it though.

Regardless, Vesrch in the armor with a powerful Cursebearer pilot might stand a chance.

(also Hunger and Versch need to have a magical-girl transformation scene when they put on the armor)
 
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As an aside, I feel like people underestimate Ruling Ring because they see the pick gains as minor and forget that it turns our bloodcasting, which has been one of our most useful assets in terms of combat applications and utility in general into fullblown rank based reality warping. The extra ability to gain picks, which isn't neglible given our dearth of them outside of our pilars despite huge overflows of arete, is really more of a side benefit.

ISH on our mental stats is almost certainly going to make it even more broken if we unlock it.
Not quite, remember that our Bloodcasting is enhanced by Crimson Flare.

Not to say that RR is terrible, of course.
 
If we get Sword In The Stone we'll have 11.7 military Rank and +0.4 up the ISH for all our abilities and attributes which also applies to Rank meaning we'll have our 11.7 Rank moved up the ISH by 0.4, so we'll be outranking Procyon massively. This would also benefit our power of ruin, as IIRC our strength is at approximately ISH 1.6 without OaF II meaning Hunger's power of ruin would be at ISH 2.6 without OaF II, ISH 2.8 with it and at ISH 3 with Hour of Reckoning active.
 
If we get Sword In The Stone we'll have 11.7 military Rank and +0.4 up the ISH for all our abilities and attributes which also applies to Rank meaning we'll have our 11.7 Rank moved up the ISH by 0.4, so we'll be outranking Procyon massively.
We need to proc Hour of Reckoning which I am not sure is that easy. Armament attacking a foreign power which houses one of its enemies is not exactly "unforgivable" so dunno.
Also Fisher Kings removes one of the requirements (we know we need Stranglethorn), does SitS has any other requirements?
 
We need to proc Hour of Reckoning which I am not sure is that easy. Armament attacking a foreign power which houses one of its enemies is not exactly "unforgivable" so dunno.
Also Fisher Kings removes one of the requirements (we know we need Stranglethorn), does SitS has any other requirements?
Fisher King says that it lets us take SitS immediately in the description from when we unlocked it.
 
The Forebear was the guy who considered anything other than unforgivable surrender to be met with death and even then, that was for a dire enemy that had committed atrocities beyond counting. Hunger is not the Forebear and so isn't necessarily going to have such a low bar for unforgivable attacks.
 
The Forebear was the guy who considered anything other than unforgivable surrender to be met with death and even then, that was for a dire enemy that had committed atrocities beyond counting. Hunger is not the Forebear and so isn't necessarily going to have such a low bar for unforgivable attacks.
Augustine kidnapped Verslengorge and would have killed him if a reroll wasn't spent. Most of the thread seemed to consider that unforgivable, so I don't see why the Republic making an attempt on Letrezia's life to be any different.
 
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All we'd have to do is ask for their surrender, if they refuse and decide to attack Letrezia anyways then that would be unforgivable, therefore fulfilling the requirements for Hour of Reckoning to proc.
The Forebear was the guy who considered anything other than unforgivable surrender to be met with death and even then, that was for a dire enemy that had committed atrocities beyond counting. Hunger is not the Forebear and so isn't necessarily going to have such a low bar for unforgivable attacks.
That is where the mental contamination comes into play, the more he has, the easier it is to proc Hour of Reckoning. And with Tyrant it would be even easier to proc. Easy power baby.

H: Hey Aobaru, give me your coffee
A: Get your own man
*Hour of Reckoning procs*

H: Gisena, are you done with my new 30% attack speed Grace?
G: Forgive me, I only managed 29% attack speed increas
*Hour of Reckoning procs*

Aeira: *hides*
H: This is unforgivable
*Hour of Reckoning procs*

Hunger has constipation
H: This is unforgivable
*Hour of Reckoning procs*

Fish does not take bait
*Hour of Reckoning procs*
 
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Hunger has constipation
H: This is unforgivable
*Hour of Reckoning procs*
SitS provides a huge array of boosts for rulership, prosperity, etc... for 23 hours a day. These boosts inevitably disappear for about an hour every morning (right after el Presidente has his morning coffee)
 
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