A Monument to Man's Arrogance: Arizona to Virgin Earth

Who would have thought that fact-checking could sound so Orwellian?

Same song as any agrarian civilization -- "Your life here is as good as it can possibly get. There is nothing out there for you. Never leave."

The case isn't nearly as clear-cut as Yuma or the Northern Government would put it -- mass-trapped passenger pigeon was an important source of food for frontier communities, and the Columbia River salmon fishery managed to sustain, large sedentary Native American populations. My thought was that the incentives for all states is to keep their labor force on the fields, and so they need to kill any rumors about potential havens in the wilderness. By the same token, this is probably one of those rumors that's impossible to kill, because it's so compelling a source of hope.


What the relevant governments do with any evidence they find is an exercise left to the reader.
 
Interesting will be the implications of the ruins of Phoenix, seeing that the inevitable repopulation will require basically the entire former city be completely demolished, foundations destroyed to convert it to farmland (like what happened to Grozny in the TL Zhirinovskys Russian Empire)
 
Chapter 2.3
Monica Heslin is one of the few private business owners in Yuma. The owner of a tailor's, the demand for her products has grown with every passing year.

I couldn't tell you how many private businesses vanished overnight. It'd be easier to list all the ones that survived! But I'll try my best.

For starters, there were the businesses that nobody needed anymore, in the first few days they were shuttered and all their employees went off to wherever they went. The farms, the military, dead...

Those were your insurance adjusters, accountants, all the white collar office jobs, gone. Then you had most retailers seized by the military, as a method to control food supplies, and none of those ever came back. The military still controls the food, which...

She rolls her eyes.

Look, the government owns the land, except for the private plots for managers and laborers to grow supplementary crops - I know a lot of them go in for spices, others just use it to grow whatever staple crops they have, but to sell on the side. The point it, the majority of foodstuffs come from the government, who sell it back to the citizens using the money they print. Not to mention most of them get their pay for the government anyway, on farms or in factories. You can imagine how I feel about all of that.

[Sorry, could you tell me more about which businesses survived?]

Right, sorry. The point is, most businesses didn't last. Leaving aside the circumstances, in a lot of cases ownership was...highly in question. Stock went away in a puff of smoke, there were too many cases where owners didn't survive or weren't in the state, franchises, et cetera. In a few cases, it was finder's keepers, and any legal battles were swept under the rug by the military tribunals.

A few businesses were lucky, like mine. They made consumer goods that weren't immediately necessary for survival and so weren't nationalized, they had sole or joint ownership, and they survived. I had to shutter my workshop for a while, but by the time I was ready to open up again, they were printing money again.

Maybe that was their mistake.

She laughs.

[Why was that their mistake?]

People need a lot more than food. They needed shoes, cookware...clothing. And a lot of them could have made due with salvage, or recycling old stuff, or with the military surplus, which really meant whatever was left in the warehouses.

But, once people had money they could afford to buy new. Which meant for a brief time, business was booming. And the military needed uniforms, both dress and combat fatigues.

She frowns.

I buy my textiles from the government. Cotton, a little wool. Like I said, they need uniforms, so they signed a contract with me.

And by that point I was able to expand my business, hire a lot of new workers, and that's where the trouble really began.

Stock wasn't...well, I doubt it will be back for a long time. Which means I'm still the sole owner of this company.

There've been quite a few legal battles before the courts - sorry, military tribunals - about the laws concerning private enterprise. The biggest decision they made was early on, stating that the laws of the old state government were defunct, which left pretty much everything up in the air for a while.

It's just the military law code now, and it has precious little to say on private enterprise. There's always the argument that the land and the factories are owned by the state, so why not the shops? But they've let us run our own affairs for too long to go back on that.

In the meanwhile, workers have never been cheaper. Labor laws went out with the rest when the government brought in the new law codes, and they had no intention of bringing them back - sure, we're not talking like, hellhole working conditions, but production stops for no man, and the military always needs more bullets, more guns, more parts for trucks...

There were a few attempts at getting better working conditions. A few.

The thing about the factory workers being members of the military is that the protests could be classes as refusal to obey orders. The organizers? Against the wall like any other mutineers. So it goes.

She pauses to smooth her dress.

I walk a fine line. On the one hand, I don't want my workers to get so upset that they start organizing either. One the other, I provide a vital service to the government, and as I said, production stops for no man. On the third hand, they do want my business. Such a vital part of the war effort in the hands of the private sector? They don't like private citizens getting ideas.


She smiles at me.

But now that I can buy textiles from our friends over in Pacific Redoubt, maybe I won't need to rely on the military government so much from now on, no? After trade picks up a little more, of course. That's just good for business, dear.
 
Hopefully when Monica and her type start moving their weight around, it just causes a walk back from "all is the military, the military is all" and doesn't recreate some Gilded Age or 90s Russia bullshit.
 
Western liberalism is an odd beast. It took hundreds of years of tuning, a number of wars, and even then I'm not sure it would have happened without the social culture of Scandinavia to crib off, which itself was massively influenced by the terrain and climate. I'm not sure it would automatically recreate itself, is the thing.

I don't want to get too far into that, and they probably do have libraries, so it's not like they have no chance. Liberalism can also be described as just "culture that works", being as it's how you avoid wars, and Western culture in general is what produces rich societies--so it's an attractor. We'll see.
 
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It'd be interesting to see how these various societies develop in the long-term. It's been, what? ten years since the Dislocation, but things seem to have stabilised. Everyone seems to be still in survival mode, even if the food situation is no longer as dire as it was. Given that you have people in non-food producing capacities, I'd say we're no longer looking at a survival situation. People just haven't realised it yet.

Even if there was a lot of die-off, there are enough people with memories of the old world that, once they realise they're not in danger of starving, groups like the Government-in-Exile or the Yuma Regime are going to have increasing problems of enforcing emergency rule. Especially if the elites start showing signs of being elites, eg Ms. Heslin stops making uniforms and blankets and starts making luxury clothing. If we have trade in textiles going on between Yuma and the Pacific Redoubt, things are stable enough for people to want things other than food.

Although the ruling elites in both Yuma and the Redoubt both seem fine with the current status quo, we haven't done a hard societal reset. Ideas like "civil rights" or even just "the right to property" still exist. Unless the dictatorial governments institute a strong propaganda regime to quash the ideas of the old world, a growing merchant and administrative class will not accept a heavy-handed military government for too long. Even if the military keeps up the message that they're the only thing stopping total chaos, if you have a growing middle class of sorts, they will at the very least want their own slice of the pie, ending the military elite's dominance of the economy.

At worst, I could imagine Yuma or the Redoubt looking like a Banana Republic, where the military elite and the business elites have fused. At best I could see them becoming an almost Medieval-esque republic where tensions between the nobility (the military) and the bourgeoisie (the business owners) play out at the expense of the peasantry (everyone else). I don't really see contemporary-style liberal democracy making a comeback any time soon.
 
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It'd be interesting to see how these various societies develop in the long-term. It's been, what? ten years since the Dislocation, but things seem to have stabilised. Everyone seems to be still in survival mode, even if the food situation is no longer as dire as it what. Given that you have people in non-food producing capacities, I'd say we're no longer looking at a survival situation. People just haven't realised it yet.

Even if there was a lot of die-off, there are enough people with memories of the old world that, once they realise they're not in danger of starving, groups like the Government-in-Exile or the Yuma Regime are going to have increasing problems of enforcing emergency rule. Especially if the elites start showing signs of being elites, eg Ms. Heslin stops making uniforms and blankets and starts making luxury clothing. If we have trade in textiles going on between Yuma and the Pacific Redoubt, things are stable enough for people to want things other than food.

Although the ruling elites in both Yuma and the Redoubt both seem fine with the current status quo, we haven't done a hard societal reset. Ideas like "civil rights" or even just "the right to property" still exist. Unless the dictatorial governments institute a strong propaganda regime to quash the ideas of the old world, a growing merchant and administrative class will not accept a heavy-handed military government for too long. Even if the military keeps up the message that they're the only thing stopping total chaos, if you have a growing middle class of sorts, they will at the very least want their own slice of the pie, ending the military elite's dominance of the economy.

At worst, I could imagine Yuma or the Redoubt looking like a Banana Republic, where the military elite and the business elites have fused. At best I could see them becoming an almost Medieval-esque republic where tensions between the nobility (the military) and the bourgeoisie (the business owners) play out at the expense of the peasantry (everyone else). I don't really see contemporary-style liberal democracy making a comeback any time soon.

You've made some excellent observations here.

You are very correct in noticing that both Yuma and the Gov-in-Exile are transitioning from all-hands-on-deck food production to more diverse economies - Yuma has a mercantile class and the Gov-in-Exile is producing luxury crops for export. However, keep in mind that both these nations had to do a hard reset - Yuma was centered around a metropolitan area and had to settle new land very quickly, while Pacific Redoubt was built completely from the ground up. As we explore Arizona, we'll see other nations that didn't have so much backslide to subsistence farming and so have more complex societies.

Also, you are entirely correct that people remember what it was like before the ISOT and the only reason they completely stand for the current state of things at all is because compared to the chaos and starvation right after the ISOT, it does seem like a step up to them. But again, that state of affairs won't last forever, and we saw in Pacific Redoubt that people are keeping these ideas alive for the next generation.
 
It appears as if every single country-let is under control of some sort of military junta, or a council, or something similar. Not one supreme leader anyway. In "emergency situations", this is EXTREMELY unwise, as when you have many heads, when you have to put the foot down on sensitive issues, bickering WILL occur, and as we can see, soon such a thing will occur especially in Yuma, where there's already a "question mark" on what to do with private property, go full state-ownership, or a more fascistic thing where factories and such are privately owned, but mostly make what the government tells them to do
 
I'm not sure this is true. Britain and China manage just fine under collective responsibility regimes - a cabinet or Politburo is as capable of governance in crisis situations.
 
I'm not sure this is true. Britain and China manage just fine under collective responsibility regimes - a cabinet or Politburo is as capable of governance in crisis situations.

If anything, strong-man governments are more prone to making a mess out of emergencies, as they are frequently resistant to the delegation of powers, with leaders who are exceedingly wary of admitting mistakes.
 
If anything, strong-man governments are more prone to making a mess out of emergencies, as they are frequently resistant to the delegation of powers, with leaders who are exceedingly wary of admitting mistakes.

Yeah, I second this. There have been quite respectable studies done, showing that groups are less likely to make mistakes than individuals. Plus there's no single point of failure, losing one member of the committee only means that the rest of the committee replaces them. Whereas if the strongman on top dies suddenly (very possible in an emergency situation) the transfer of power has the potential to become extremely messy.
 
On the one hand I love this to pieces and see it as the best ISOT I've ever read. On the other hand I'm bitter cuz I'd love to write something similar but I'd be afraid to rip off. Seriously great work#
 
On the one hand I love this to pieces and see it as the best ISOT I've ever read. On the other hand I'm bitter cuz I'd love to write something similar but I'd be afraid to rip off. Seriously great work#

It might not be my place to say this, but I'd argue go for it. I mean the whole ISOT concept is ultimately ripped off from S.M. Stirling. As long as it's not in Arizona.
 
It might not be my place to say this, but I'd argue go for it. I mean the whole ISOT concept is ultimately ripped off from S.M. Stirling. As long as it's not in Arizona.
Not to discourage anyone from doing their own take on a homestate in a virgin ISOT scenario, but what I think works about Arizona is the fact that it is a very difficult scenario.

Arizona being arid means that you can't have a situation where they decide "welp, everyone else is gone, better conquer the world" because there isn't enough food for everyone. A lot of other states aren't in such a situation. For example, if I did a scenario where my own homestate of Maryland is sent to a virgin earth, it'd be pretty boring. There's more than enough arable land in both Maryland and in the surrounding areas that food shortages would not be much of a problem. Society wouldn't collapse, and it'd just be a slow chronicle of colonisation and expansion.

Not really what makes an engaging story. Even if I were to focus solely on characters and their reactions to the ISOT, it wouldn't really be much of an engaging story beyond the initial "oh my God what the hell just happened" reaction. While a one-off vignette showing what society looks like long after the ISOT might be mildly interesting, it would be difficult to make it have the same pull as SM's Arizona story.

(Though, I'd be really interested to see what thoughts @Zioneer has on a Utah ISOT to a virgin earth scenario. Especially regarding how the Mormon Church might react and develop in such a situation.)
 
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(Though, I'd be really interested to see what thoughts @Zioneer has on a Utah ISOT to a virgin earth scenario. Especially regarding how the Mormon Church might react and develop in such a situation.)

I've thought about it, though honestly I just don't feel like putting the effort into researching how to do such a scenario. I'm quite lazy, you know. :p

I have been working with ScottishMongol on Mormonism within ISOTed Arizona, however. Arizona's got a long history of Mormonism, especially in the north, after all.
 
Chapter 2.4
Forward Operating Base Foxtrot marks the northern limit of Yuma's control. I stand on the banks of the Colorado River while my river barge is loaded and talk to Lieutenant-Colonel Joaquin "Jack" Fiddler.

See the idea isn't so much to trade, seein' as we don't have much that they want. Maybe in a few years, when we have a chance to diversify. What we really want to do is establish diplomatic channels, maybe see about working out a treaty over the ruins of Lake Havasu City.

[Those are valuable?]

Boy are they! Let alone the raw materials that are still waiting to be mined, the rebar and concrete and stone and tiles, the pipes and wires - well, a lot of it's been damaged by rain, wind, and fire, but there's a good chunk of it still worth something. And then there's everything that the scavengers haven't picked over, some real valuables in those ruins.

Leaving aside the stuff we can sell on the open market, there's guns, tools, stuff we can use ourselves.

We'd also really like to see if that dam's still in working order, get a good source of water, even if the land isn't so good for growing.

[Are there many scavengers?]

Well, yes and no. Lots of them out of Bullhead City, but they're more salvage teams, working private contracts to bring stuff back. Then you have the squatters. See Havasu City collapsed rather messily, the mayor couldn't organize quickly enough and food riots spiraled out of control. Still a lot of sun-bleached bones lying around, too...

Anyway, some people from our side, or people from their side, wound up in the ruins between us, whether they were criminals making a run for it, or those who just didn't want to follow the rules and thought they'd set up stakes somewhere else. Well, we'll be dealing with them soon enough, if this treaty goes through.

You've also got a few hardass survivors from when the community collapsed, the salvage teams say there's a lot of infighting over slices of good real estate. Heh.

[Is it dangerous?]

Not like Phoenix further east, or even the raider-controlled territories between here and there. Though if you're not careful, it can be as fatal as any other combat environment. Well, you'll be passing through on a river barge, won't even take you a day, so as long as your guards stay sharp you should make it in one piece.

[How does the leadership feel about Bullhead City?]

Ah, the Free City of Bullhead. They fancy themselves the frontier town born again, and maybe they are. You'll be able to ask them all about their setup when you get there, but all you need to know is that the top brass think they're anarchic sons-of-bitches, but until they become a problem we won't make them a problem. And so long as they cooperate on salvage and keeping the raiders at bay, they're less than a problem.

[They don't consider Bullhead City a rebellious government?]

If you can call it that.

He snorts.

No, Yuma considers itself a successor state to the state of Arizona, but we're not like the legitimists who think they're the only real government - and even they do business with us on the side. There are a few in the brass who might be itching to bring them back into the fold, but we have far, far bigger fish to fry. Raiders, and the big corpse city, Phoenix.

[So the raiders are still a danger?]

I wouldn't say a danger. They come to Lake Havasu every now and then for water and to pick through the ruins, but only the weaker ones - the big prize is Phoenix, you can get anything there, they say, if you look hard enough. Oh, and of course they have back-and-forth raids, on Bullhead's outskirts, the small farming villages and outposts, and on our forward bases, but we give 'em as good as we get with retaliatory, er, expeditions.

A short siren blares from the bases' watchtower, and for a second LTC Fiddler freezes. Then, he glances at the tower, relaxes, and gives me a smile.

Well, I'll be damned, today's your lucky day. Looks like some raiders doing a scouting run. Wanna see?

We climb the tower, and take turns peering through a pair of binoculars at a distant column of dust. Flashes of metal and bright paint can be seen through the haze. Below us, the garrison takes up defensive positions as a precaution. LTC Fiddler mutters under his breath as he takes a long look.

No, doesn't look like Sand Devils, or the Children of the Phoenix. Too few of 'em. Might be the Sun Brotherhood, I'm seeing lots of flame decals.

He hands the binoculars back to me.

Every raider band has their own style. They paint and decorate their war rigs differently, makes it easy for us to identify them.

They'll slink off into the desert, it's just the game of cat-and-mouse we play. We can't send out foot patrols because they'll jump us, and motorized patrols are getting more expensive. Maybe they'll launch a raid in the next few days, maybe they'll decide it isn't worth it.

Until then, we watch and wait.

The scouting party turns and grows smaller at it vanishes into the distance. Across the sand, rocks, and broken scrub comes the blaring of rock music.

***

AN: And there's Yuma, the army with a country. Again, if you have any questions about this chapter's featured nation, feel free to ask them now.

If not, then I'll see you in the next chapter: Bullhead Free City
 
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The scouting party turns and grows smaller at it vanishes into the distance. Across the sand, rocks, and broken scrub comes the blaring of rock music.
WITNESS!

Anyway, it's very interesting to go back and compare Yuma to the Pacific Redoubt. While Yuma may be "an Army with a nation", the Redoubt almost feels like "an Army that's a nation". I get the sense that there is no distinction between the government and the "people" in the Redoubt. Yuma, meanwhile, feels almost normal, in the sense that, while the military has intervened to maintain order, there is a sort of civil society that exists separate from the military. Meanwhile, in the Redoubt, the military is literally everything, and they're just barely holding on.

Also, what happens when the Redoubt realises they're sitting on a fairly significant oilfield?
 
WITNESS!

Anyway, it's very interesting to go back and compare Yuma to the Pacific Redoubt. While Yuma may be "an Army with a nation", the Redoubt almost feels like "an Army that's a nation". I get the sense that there is no distinction between the government and the "people" in the Redoubt. Yuma, meanwhile, feels almost normal, in the sense that, while the military has intervened to maintain order, there is a sort of civil society that exists separate from the military. Meanwhile, in the Redoubt, the military is literally everything, and they're just barely holding on.

Also, what happens when the Redoubt realises they're sitting on a fairly significant oilfield?

P E T R O S T A T E
 
They've lasted pretty long already, so they must have some sort of system set up (I dunno alcohol fuel? Solar power? Hijacked refineries?). I imagine that as places like Yuma have prioritized on things like farming and textiles, these raiders have prioritized on keeping their old world cars around like the cyberpunk version of steppe horseflesh.
 
They've lasted pretty long already, so they must have some sort of system set up (I dunno alcohol fuel? Solar power? Hijacked refineries?). I imagine that as places like Yuma have prioritized on things like farming and textiles, these raiders have prioritized on keeping their old world cars around like the cyberpunk version of steppe horseflesh.

Oh, I'm sure they've got something figured out. I just wonder how long they can keep it running.
 

Yeah but for petrostate you need someone to sell the oil in large amounts to someone. Who they gonna sell to, coyotes? The closest statelet to them is Yuma, and now that all the dams on the Colorado are kill probably, you could send a barge across, but from what we saw the redoubt doesn't even hold land past the watershed of the mojave
 
Yeah but for petrostate you need someone to sell the oil in large amounts to someone. Who they gonna sell to, coyotes? The closest statelet to them is Yuma, and now that all the dams on the Colorado are kill probably, you could send a barge across, but from what we saw the redoubt doesn't even hold land past the watershed of the mojave

So not your classic petrostate, they don't sell the petroleum but mining and refining gasoline is still creating value in the form of a resource they can use to get other resources.
 
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