A Golden Island To The West — California ISOT from 2018 to 1850

[Caprica12]

Honestly, while my thoughts on the filibuster thing are clear, it's kind of a boring subject to talk about after a while. You believe it's a viable possibility or not, that is going to make things worse or not.
I am actually more interested in more ambiguous scenarios. Like, what if it becomes public that one (1) African-American is in the process of buying one of his ancestors (through middlemen and without ever getting out of the state) and they are sending money to bring him/her to Cal too. Regardless of what happens after it becomes public news, that is 100% guaranteed going to be used by almost all to validate their position, whatever it is.
You could even get downtimers to comment on the issue. Buying your enslaved relatives was not exactly unheard of.

 

[kaazmiz]

Syria-Iraq was roughly 400km of operational range while Libya was 700. Cali to Texas is under 800 km.

I'm not going to argue about group psychology, or its ability to just leave native horses in the dust, or suffer casualties on rest like pioneers did. Simply pointing out that reaching Texas alone, civilization and its own transportation methods for those that can pay, is well within not just a theoretical possibility, but also a practical one, provided it is actually planned.
And again, going down across Mexico is also a possibility for parts of the way- 19 century border looks a lot different than the 20th century one- it would take a bit more time, but would allow that group to omit all dangers related to poor supplies,natives and any unexpected failures (provided they have money).

 

[Deathstroke]

Forget traveling into Texas from Mexico or western areas of Texas since there is already an active conflict going on in the Texan region and beyond called the Apache Wars. That conflict lasted from 1849 to 1924, and it resulted in the population of Apache nations to shrink over decades.

Apache Wars - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

EDITED

It would be a bad PR image if they were to defend themselves against the Apaches with modern weaponry, thus contributing to the decline of Apache population by killing off adult males in battles.

 

[Alane1]

Yeah the Apache wars had been going for centuries since at least the 1600s and the commache wars with the commache against everyone from other native groups to the Spanish, Mexicans and Americans had been going since the early 18th century and of course there were the Navajo wars and just plain wide widespread raiding and continuous low intensity warfare in the southwest and beyond on the great plains for that matter.

 

[Deathstroke]

After a quick googling for American-Indian Wars, I found an map of US forts in the West which the author might useful.

It looks like the downtime US already have two existing forts in 'Washington' territory, and these two forts might find themselves heavily depend on California for supplies since they could deliver to the US downtime troops much faster and efficiently than they could get spare parts and etc from US East.

Spoiler: Map of US forts

 

[Alane1]

Not surprising outside of the period coastal defense fortresses on the eastern and southern coasts and the border forts along mexico and Canada a large chunk the downtime US's extremely tiny army was divided up across numerous isolated forts across the western portion of the country which existed for various reasons from being a stopping point for settlers traveling west or just existing to protect some of the US allied tribes from larger and more powerful tribes and beyond.

 

[Deathstroke]

Next year (1854) is going to be a bad time for everyone traveling through Mexico and Texas into the antebellum South due to hurricane season. The roads and ground going to be muddy or flooded, making travel almost impossible.

These are hurricane paths for 1854.

Spoiler

 

[ExNihilo]

These are hurricane paths for 1854.

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Are hurricanes stable enough? I imagine how much California has interfered could cause completely different hurricanes.

 

[Alane1]

Though even at the best of times the quickest method of traveling around the southeastern united states and much of the Midwest is via the waterways such as the navigable rivers and canals outside of the areas that have local railroads and the upper Midwest east of the Mississippi river which had rail line connections to the east.

 

[General_Urist]

Everyone's talking about seeing videos of slavery in action on youtube, but would Youtube even allow those videos to stay up? By OTL 2018 Youtube began taking a hard line against 'disturbing' content.

 

[CompassJimbo]

Everyone's talking about seeing videos of slavery in action on youtube, but would Youtube even allow those videos to stay up? By OTL 2018 Youtube began taking a hard line against 'disturbing' content.

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I suppose it depends on if LiveLeak is still up or not. People are going to want this out there as a permanent reminder of the cruelty of slavery and man's inhumanity to man. That said, it's still disturbing content and needs to be handled responsibly.

 

[Deathstroke]

I suppose it depends on if LiveLeak is still up or not. People are going to want this out there as a permanent reminder of the cruelty of slavery and man's inhumanity to man. That said, it's still disturbing content and needs to be handled responsibly.

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And also some people are going to pass videos to others on encrypted messaging softwares which make much harder for them to be taken down.

 

[Alane1]

I suppose it depends on if LiveLeak is still up or not. People are going to want this out there as a permanent reminder of the cruelty of slavery and man's inhumanity to man. That said, it's still disturbing content and needs to be handled responsibly.

Click to shrink...

Though I'd think all they would need to see or read is news reports of the Peonage system in mexico, Arizona, New Mexico and Colorado to see that given peons could be beaten, tortured, imprisoned, hunted down like dogs and in mexico killed with no repercussions and then all the debt of the parents would then be put on their children, a system where being charged for the cost of your parents death or murder is likely quite real to get how inhumane humanity can get to their fellow man.

Either that or have a interview with Utah settlers and them talk about how buying and enslaving native children is a good thing and that itis for their own good without realizing how the interviewers and listeners would react would certainly set people off I suppose.

 

[kaazmiz]

There are video hosting sites besides YT, and they have servers in the exact same locations (for the same infrastructural reasons).
Even if it doesn't land on YT, those recordings would make their way to the wider populace.

And I just realized that someone is going to host servers beyond US/Cali borders as soon as possible to completely circumvent all laws and establish a monopoly for when receivers become more commonplace.

 

[Midnighter13]

Well... most of the RL roads in Arizona and New Mexico appear to be following natural lay of land, which means that if you have someone who can do basic level math and has a compass, they can get from Cali to Texas in an atv. And even considering its rugged terrain, you would only need 2-3 top ups on gas. So the approach mercenaries took in Iraq, Libya and Syria (of having 2 extra canisters) would see them through.
Same would go for water, if its 6 people per car, you can easily fit it in a few large bottles.
For those less adventurous, they could cross the border into Mexico, follow its roads to Texas, or East shore, and board a boat across the Gulf to CSA.

So yeah. A group that's determined to get there, has the minimum basics of intelligence, and can secure fuel will be able to reach the other side without much issues.
Though I'm assuming that the sea route from Cali to Mexico is at least to some degree monitored, and that a lot of weekend warriors tried it and got caught for "crossing a border with arms", the longer route is certainly still open and causing sleepless nights for a lot of policy makers.
And if we consider that someone made his way into CSA with designs for weapons (recoiless rifles on ships) and (most likely) a welder, that can (or Pandora's box if you will) has already been opened and made moot.

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Great. Under your plan a handful of uptimers will be able to make it to Texas before running out of fuel, and potentially food water and ammo. Great. Who wants to sign up for a one way trip to Antebellum Texas, with the only way back being on foot or by horse? Better yet, since its a one way trip, resupply is limited to nonexistent, and communications with your supporters, backers, and families are fully nonexistent. Again, not saying this won't happen, but it just seems incredibly unlikely to make a difference. A few dozen men with modern rifles marching into Texas to free the slaves with little to no supplies, and no local knowledge might make a small mess. Ultimately though they will be unable to free any significant numbers, and after they run out of ammo they won't be able to protect the slaves that they did free. Logistics bloody well matter if you are trying to extract people from slavery. Where are the newly freed slaves going to go, and with what supplies? Its not like the uptimers are connected to the underground railroad.

Worse, from the Californian perspective these people will just vanish and no one will know what happened to them until reports show up in six month old Texan newspapers talking about Californian bandits getting hunted down after stealing some slaves and killing some sheriffs. Basically, either they fail badly enough to get recorded as failures, or they vanish and are never heard from again. Not exactly something to encourage followup missions.

 

[htgriffin]

Yeah the Apache wars had been going for centuries since at least the 1600s and the commache wars with the commache against everyone from other native groups to the Spanish, Mexicans and Americans had been going since the early 18th century and of course there were the Navajo wars and just plain wide widespread raiding and continuous low intensity warfare in the southwest and beyond on the great plains for that matter.

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This is true. One aspect of WATO that Sacramento is under obligation to address is convincing all participants/members to stand the crap down from all save the most ceremonial/pro-forma squabbles (think tagging one-another's livestock, etc.). Perhaps introduce/encourage various sports if an outlet for simple competition is desired.

After a quick googling for American-Indian Wars, I found an map of US forts in the West which the author might useful.

It looks like the downtime US already have two existing forts in 'Washington' territory, and these two forts might find themselves heavily depend on California for supplies since they could deliver to the US downtime troops much faster and efficiently than they could get spare parts and etc from US East.

Click to shrink...

I mentioned well upthread that CA is more likely than not to absorb all but the most staunchly ideological Anglo settlements west of the Continental Divide more or less by accident due to being so much closer than the settled chunks of the U. S. And yes, this may include proto-British Columbia for practical purposes even if a treaty with London fixing the notational border is approved.

Again, not saying this won't happen, but it just seems incredibly unlikely to make a difference. A few dozen men with modern rifles marching into Texas to free the slaves with little to no supplies, and no local knowledge might make a small mess, but ultimately they will be unable to free any significant numbers, and after they run out of ammo won't be able to protect the slaves that they did free.

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If Propaganda Of The Deed is not the goal far better planning is needed. Stealth, a waiting boat, UR contacts, a plausible alibi, all that rot.

 

[Deathstroke]

Great. Under your plan a handful of uptimers will be able to make it to Texas before running out of fuel, and potentially food water and ammo. Great. Who wants to sign up for a one way trip to Antebellum Texas, with the only way back being on foot or by horse? Better yet, since its a one way trip, resupply is limited to nonexistent, and communications with your supporters, backers, and families are fully nonexistent. Again, not saying this won't happen, but it just seems incredibly unlikely to make a difference. A few dozen men with modern rifles marching into Texas to free the slaves with little to no supplies, and no local knowledge might make a small mess, but ultimately they will be unable to free any significant numbers, and after they run out of ammo won't be able to protect the slaves that they did free.

Click to shrink...

There is a possibility that they could hire bush planes to drop supplies and fuel in Texas since California has a fair number of bush planes operating for rural services, and they don't need runaways to land or take off. They could land on semi-dry, rocky riverbed or even land on a hill slope. Some of bush planes have range at least 1,000 miles and carry more than 1,000lbs of cargo.

Ones with prior military service could get thier hand on portable HF radio sets to communicate with backers by bouncing transmissions off the atmosphere over hundreds or a thousand of miles.

Bush plane in action...

 

[Alane1]

Assuming there were even any planes and pilots capable of such a long distance thing in California they would still have to issue a flight plan and a list of passengers and cargo with the California authorities as well as perhaps justify why they are even flying where they are and more than likely would run into numerous other issues from lack of modern navigational support to lack of weather support.

 

[kaazmiz]

Great.

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I know right?~~

I never said its logical or the best plan ever. But neither do I deny human stupidity, Trump-town is a thing in this universe.
And as I am neither interested in freeing slaves or supporting slavers, I didn't make a good workable plan, point by point involving travel to, existence in field, combat and eventual return.

As a temporary solution, a box of 16 cans (mix corn, peas, etc.) Would last you around 30 days. If you mix it up with rice (where a container half the size of that can-box will last you 3 months) and canned tomatoes and meat, you can have enough good provisions to last you half a year, without taking up much space.
You can also supplement that with MRS, provided they are sold, as well as fruit bars, and other long term foodstuffs.

As for fuel, there is little you can do about it.
Either you have a source on site, you take a surplus with (maybe have a cistern, or truck dedicated to hauling canisters), or you prepare beforehand a somewhat efficient gasification station.
That last solution is the only one viable long term, but it forces that group to gather firewood and other biological materials, setting the station up (or a whole forward base) and processing it. It would take a while to gather fuel that way, and quite a large group, but I'm only pointing it out as a potential method.

As for ammo. That would be the lowest of concerns, since a singe can/box can hold 840 bullets (5,56), they are only limited by how much they can fit on the roof or back of their cars.

A few dozen men with modern rifles

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Depending on how you look at it, that's already a platoon or even a company sized unit of armed men.
If we go with such a size, you'd need 5-6 main vehicles for in field movement (atv's) and two logistic trucks- and you could fit everything on them for 6 months for those people.

Again, I don't think this is a good idea, but its more than a bit plausible for a well organized group with some specialists. And certainly for little more than just a "small mess"

 

[Deathstroke]

Assuming there were even any planes and pilots capable of such a long distance thing in California they would still have to issue a flight plan and a list of passengers and cargo with the California authorities as well as perhaps justify why they are even flying where they are and more than likely would run into numerous other issues from lack of modern navigational support to lack of weather support.

Click to shrink...

While Loran-C network in the NA got shut down a few years ago, we haven't demolished the transmitters and stripped the stations all of thier equipment. They are still there intact pending the US federal gov's decision although there is a serious effort to bring it back as a back-up system to the GPS due to growing hostile efforts to jam the GPS; they passed a law last year. The Californian government could reactivate them as terrestrial navigation system for ships and airplanes, and they are surprisingly very accurate and has good range (Up to 1700 miles in daylight, but in nighttime its range is significantly increased).

However, weather support is even more bigger concern since the CA need to refly weather sats ASAP and the ground weather radars could only reach up to 280 miles.

 

[GeshronTyler]

A few basic considerations-

In regards to uptime guns- AMMO AMMO AMMO If someone is going to go a'Fillibustering, or gun running to any faction, you'll need LOTS of ammo. A steady supply of LOTS of ammo. THAT would be a red flag for any kind of enforcement/proliferation, not too mention a serious consideration for any kind of civilian/military surplus vehicle in regards to cargo capacity, when considering the need for extra fuel, SPARES (if any available!!), TOOLS (breakdowns HAPPEN), water and food...

Actually, isn't Cali under fuel rationing anyway? How are you going to collect and stockpile enough fuel for any kind of expedition? All that fuel also needs to be transported, taking up significant fractions of cargo capacity.

Actually, trying to build up a stockpile might get you investigated for hoarding, or black market activities.

THE MAP is NOT the TERRITORY!!!!

Just saying that the Texas border is about 700-800 km "thataway", and "simple math and a compass" (I, for one, can use both, but have no idea how to navigate like that...) will get you there completely ignores the fact that the modern landscape OTL might be quite similar to "present" ATL, but the devil is very much in the details.

Watercourses that have different routes, bodies of water that didn't exist uptime, ravines and gulches blocking your path, absolutely no bridges or tunnels to get around river valley or ridglines, other terrain obstacles, no weather forecasts warning of flash floods, etc, etc. You are unlikely to make much more than average walking pace (if that) "straightline" progress to your destination, because you have to be careful to keep a speed that lets you keep control and stop in case of an obstacle, or an accident. You'll burn fuel, because you have to backtrack because you don't actually know the lay of the land at ground level.

God forbid you manage to break an axle on a rock or in a hole, or get mired down in some sandpit or mudhole. Or your cargo trailer gets dumped because you hit a rock, and your stuff goes off into a ravine...

The indians whose territory you're so casually passing through might be intimidated by your machines, and perhaps your weapons, and maybe your NVG/IR gear will keep you safe at night, but they're bound to have at least your skill, most likely better in scounting/stealth/woodcraft- and very much more familiar with the terrain. A horse can likely outpace someone on an ATV who doesn't know the terrain. Your expedition might just find themselves ambushed again and again.

As for bush planes... While I don't doubt that they are capable of some amazing things, that particular video isn't a good example of what you can do with a fully loaded aircraft. God forbid you have a nasty landing with a full load.

Also again- FUEL!!! Bound to be a limited supply, and usage is bound to be monitored.

Again, modern air charts will be full of waypoints/landmarks that don't exist downtime, gps is inoperable AFAIK, no VOR/DME beacons beyond anything set up to support the Green Zone or other US airports- so nothing in the direction of Texas/the South. If you're trying to get to a rendevous point, I hope you can pick the right hill/field/plain/whatever LZ out of all that literal wilderness, or the largely undeveloped "settled" areas. No convenient roads to follow, even if the rivers are fairly close. Towns and cities may not even exist yet, or be so small as to be unrecognizable. No channelization of watercourses, so who knows how much more twisty the rivers will be? Can your pilot manage to follow a radio beacon, if you have the capability? Will a signal mirror/light be workable?

I'm not very confident that modern bush pilots are really able to navigate from first principles, not without a lot of prior familiarization flights. Oh, that means more fuel, doesn't it? Plus drawing attention of authorities for your flights...

 

[Highlord]

It doesn't even need to be full on modern semi/full-auto weaponry to completely skew the battlefield towards whomever California favors. The bolt action repeater, even with black powder ammo, would do that just as easily and be more in tune with what current world armies are used to. More to the point, the technology to make brass cartridges and single-shot bolt actions already exists. They're just currently the extremely expensive and groundbreaking cutting edge of technology. Upgrading that to stripper/enbloc-clip fed weapons would be easy. Better artillery and spotting via balloons is also well within current tech capability if it given a little bump.

All of this will be readily apparent to any downtimer going to California to get information for their respective countries. With even the basic engineering primers that are available in libraries, you can expect the English Empire to be making the bolt-action and smokeless powder jump as quickly as possible. All the information is already in the hands of downtime chemists and engineers, the connections just haven't been made. You can add Russia and France to that list as well, though of the big European empires only the Brits are currently industrialized enough to do it quickly.

While 1900-era technology is nowhere near that capability of California, it doesn't need to be. The Queen, the Czar, the US, and Napoleon knows all they have to do is keep on good terms with California and they won't be facing drone-targeted artillery, precision air bombardment and 21st century ground forces. Anyone on the world stage knows that Calis first priority is getting their own house in order, crushing the slavers, and doing as much humanitarian aid for their neighbors as they can. Unless someone pokes that tiger, it won't be mauling anyone's face off. They don't need California levels of military tech right off the bat, since all of them are as interested in fighting a war with California as California is interested in fighting a war with them. Getting better rifles and machine guns, and maybe even some sturdy prop aircraft and better artillery to better crush their current enemies however, is perfectly doable.

The US though, is poking the aforementioned tiger. If it's any consolation to them, as least Cali won't be sending B-52's to level slaver cities. Still won't be pretty though.

On the nicer side, given the huge disparities and that things like modern airliners won't be in the capabilities of even the most advanced downtime nations for a few decades, we might actually see those nations "bring back" things like zeppelins and huge ocean liners to assert their presence in international travel and trade even though what we'd call modern capabilities are beyond them. Hell, the zeppelin isn't even a bad idea if the thing is built properly. Neither are cruise liners. What makes modern air travel what it is is the the convenience and modern marketability, not that anyone but shareholders actually likes it. Same goes for rail. Cali can hopefully nip the uhmurrican obsession with cars in the bud.

 

[Alane1]

From what I could find a flight from nearest city I could find near the California border would flight a minimum 531 mile flight or 854 km direct flight to El Paso Texas which would be the modern western most tip but in the 1850s wasn't even a city though there was a small settlement called Franklin with a nearby military post.

A overland travel would be hundreds of miles more than that even excluding dealing with the bridges across rivers that don't exist and the various causeways across dams making canyons easily passable that doesn't exist in the downtime or the rivers that are no longer dried up or nearly dried up by dams that would need to be crossed via rafts and boats which would create a problem getting vehicles across.

 

[SaltyWaffles]

As I brought up, its already too late. This is only a year away from the Bleeding Kansas flashpoint kicking off in the OTL.

Actual true events:
Both pro-slavery & abolitionist groups will start a war of words that VERY rapidly sees pro-slavery mobs attack abolitionist businesses, and then a tit-for-tat back and forth with a few deaths. Then it gets bad, and by the time its over, 170-180 are injured, 20-30 killed.

Then there is the physical assault on the very floor of the US Capital, where one Senator nearly killed another, with an iron tipped cane and was PRAISED for the attack.

And of course, the previously mentioned John Brown raids in which pro-slavers were HACKED TO DEATH with hatchets.

Those events actually happened. In a world without advanced firearms.

Except this time, California 2018 is around.

-=-

Any firearms, ANY FIREARMS, which make it out of California, and into the hands of either side, are going to get used. Hence why I said California needs to do something immediately, or someone east of the Mississippi will take it out of their hands to stop, or at least limit things from completely spiraling out of control. Even if the firearms take months (down around the bottom of South America and up into the Gulf and smuggled into Texas or elsewhere) to reach their destination. Sooner or later, it'll happen.

And as rightly mentioned, this is the era in which aiming is seen as absolute, as neyond certain ranges, the weapons available turn completely to crap in very short order. And the few rifles with good ranges are single shots. So giving a semi-auto or full-auto(selective) to someone from this era means they will take the time to aim, and virtually every shot taken will be one to make a range master proud.

Someone previously put it that the fire is already lit. California's very presence as fanatically abolitionist + paradigm shattering technologies, means its a gas can leaking slowly towards the fire, and all it takes is a spark.

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I think the whole "people back then were really good shots because the rate of fire was so slow, so they had to make each shot count" thing is completely overblown. While it's true that very experienced hunters and marksmen would be good shots with muskets, the vast, vast majority would be crap-tier marksmen. See: actual history, where even with rifled muskets, accuracy by everyone but elite marksmen was hilariously bad outside of very close range.

Add in the fact that modern firearms do not shoot like 1850s firearms, and you reach a point where downtimer soldiers would not become even a quarter as effective as uptimer soldiers even if they had the same kit (which they won't).

But also, remember that logistics is still very much a thing, and modern logistics is completely beyond anything the South can manage.

Furthermore, the US army at this point is still something of a joke. It was the Civil War that saw the US army become a real force to be reckoned with (though this would shrink down to a very small size until WW1).

The South doesn't really have a military to speak of at this point, and won't for a long time. And when it does raise a military, it will essentially be throwing a huge force together as quickly as it can.

 

[Deathstroke]

Timecop movie made me think of something...

The downtime settlers especially ones living near gold mines in the Nevada and British Columbia regions (Latter one happened on a large island) would be extremely vulnerable to ex-military uptimers-turned-criminals, and they know there are ongoing gold rushes in both regions which they will take advantage of opportunities. They would've hit the guarded stagecoaches transporting gold from the gold mines where the downtimers couldn't effectively react to well planned ambushes.

It's going to be a hell of headache for the officials when the Californian government receive reports from the downtimers about stagecoaches and its guards being shot dead with ' very strange' exit wounds found on thier corpses, and valuable cargo ended up missing.

Queen Charlottes Gold Rush, British Columbia, Canada (Early 1850s)
Northern Nevada Gold Rush (1850–1934)

Awesome scene from the Timecop