A Game of Crowns (Mafia)

[PyrrosWarrior]

@Cyricubed gave an explanation of how their claim could work with DG's. (Their tracking was redirected).

But shouldn't you know that DG is lying? After all, they claim you visited Nictis last night. If you are a VT, then you shouldn't be visiting anybody. The fact you didn't treat that as an inconsistency looks quite suspicious.

[X] lynch PyrrosWarrior

Click to shrink...

That's the point I was making dude. Either Cyri is lying about his role, meaning that he isn't a Nexus and there is a Redirector somewhere because I am VT so I know I didn't visit anyone, or DG is lying about his role and he didn't see anything at all and is making this all up.

 

[InterstellarHobo]

Also I sorta just thought to point it out: How is Nictis dead if I'm not Nexus? Like, a little confused there if your thinking scum intentionally killed one of their own this late into the game during a night phase.

Click to shrink...

There's a few ways:
Multiple scum factions
A vigilante
A redirector who isn't you
Some manner of one-shot kill immune + revenge kill?

The argument "how else could it have happened?" is never going to be strong, unless we have much more reliable information.
Personally, I'm suspecting the first option, since I find the idea that Reim has no participants in this game quite odd.

 

[PyrrosWarrior]

That's the point I was making dude. Either Cyri is lying about his role, meaning that he isn't a Nexus and there is a Redirector somewhere because I am VT so I know I didn't visit anyone, or DG is lying about his role and he didn't see anything at all and is making this all up.

Click to shrink...

Like, DG can still be telling the truth but have been redirected/deflected/bussed away from me to someone else and had an accurate view of Cyri visiting someone, or Cyri is telling the truth of being a Nexus and DG is making this all up I the binary I am seeing it as right now. You feel a little eager to try to twist even the slightest thing into a lynch dude.

 

[InterstellarHobo]

@DimensionalGuy
Would you know if you were redirected? Do you know if you would know if you were redirected?
Do you know if it would alter the percieved visitor, or the perceived visitee?

 

[PyrrosWarrior]

Also, I didn't even accuse them of not having an explanation for how their role could work with DG's, so I don't even know why you bothered to point that. Literally my whole post was about how I believe there can only be a Redirector OR a Nexus but not both, since DG's claim being true implies there is a Redirector while Cyri's claim says there is a Nexus. I said nothing about DG and Cyri's role working together.

 

[1KBestK]

Last game we had a red herring in the form of goku. Not sure I beleive it yet, but signs are somewhat pointing to no Reim barbarians. The Brotherhood could also be the Reim faction I guess? Going off of flavor at this point seems counterproductive. We have enough info that it's not something I'd put too much weight in.

 

[mesonoxian]

That's the point I was making dude. Either Cyri is lying about his role, meaning that he isn't a Nexus and there is a Redirector somewhere because I am VT so I know I didn't visit anyone, or DG is lying about his role and he didn't see anything at all and is making this all up.

Click to shrink...

Ah, so you're thinking DG was redirected when they tried to track you and that's why they have you as visiting Nictis?

I didn't consider that.

[X] Null

 

[PyrrosWarrior]

Ah, so you're thinking DG was redirected when they tried to track you and that's why they have you as visiting Nictis?

I didn't consider that.

[X] Null

Click to shrink...

Yes. I am thinking that for their claim to be true, there has to be a redirector as I can't visit anyone. Likewise, if Cyri's claim of being a Nexus is true, then I don't believe DG's claim is true by the fact that I don't believe a Nexus and Redirector would be in the same game due to overlapping powers.

Cyri's claim has the fact that Nictis was NK'd tonight to back it, as I don't think we have multiple scum factions in the game and we don't appear to have a Vig.

DG's claim has the fact that their role is plausible for this game (though flavor is unreliable), and that it did give a reaction from Cyri in the same way that my claim got a reaction out of Comi.

 

[mesonoxian]

If there is a town redirector who targeted DG, this would be a real good time to claim and help prevent a mislynch. I don't think there is much more to be gained from secrecy at this point.

 

[DimensionalGuy]

@DimensionalGuy
Would you know if you were redirected? Do you know if you would know if you were redirected?
Do you know if it would alter the percieved visitor, or the perceived visitee?

Click to shrink...

No, I noticed no real difference between all days, so i didn't even consider the possibility until today.
Also, if I understand it correctly, me targeting Cyri would just be me targeting someone random, and then seeing where they went.

 

[Evenstar]

Deflector or Redirector?

 

[Evenstar]

@Cyricubed: You claim to both be a nexus and to have visited Nictis N1. Do you randomize who your target visits, or cause everyone who visits your target to be randomly redirected?

 

[Cyricubed]

You claim to both be a nexus and to have visited Nictis N1. Do you randomize who your target visits, or cause everyone who visits your target to be randomly redirected?

Click to shrink...

This is incorrect.

I claim to be Nexus. I have stated that DG's claim is within realm of possibility because I am 3-Shot use of it and I used it N1, meaning DG could have been deflected onto say: Absum, who had stated they visited Nictis N1 from looking back. But again, that is a potential construction. I'm at work so ISO progress is slow. I have never visited anyone, only those who visit me when I use it are deflected to someone completely random.

 

[Evenstar]

World where everyone is telling the truth about their claims:
DG tracks Cyri N1, Cyri activates. DG is redirected to a dead visiting role who visits Nictis that night.
DG tracks Comiturtle N2, Comiturtle goes nowhere.
DG tracks Absum N3, Absum visits Nictis.
DG tracks PyrrosWarrior N4, and is redirected or deflected by a dead-or-scum role into ANOTHER dead-or-scum role that visited Nictis. Pyrros sits and does nothing 'cause he's a VT.

I think we can all agree that this world is extremely damn unlikely. N4 requires a dead-or-scum transporting role AND another unclaimed visiting role that was not the scum roleblocker or DG, because I was blocked by the scum roleblocker, so they targeted me, not Nictis, and if DG was redirected to visit himself or Cyri he would have seen Pyrros visit him or Cyri.

World where only DG is lying:
Cyri activates N1. DG blocks Nanimani, or better yet he tries to block Cyri and it bounces into Nanimani, thereby telling the scum that Cyri is a Nexus who can act on odd nights.
N2, 3, and 4 DG blocks me.
Cyri activates N4, the scum team tries to kill him, and it bounces back into Nictis. Pyrros does nothing because he's a VT and DG is lying about him being anything else.

World where only Cyricubed is lying:
Cyricubed is a Deflector on a different scumteam from Nictis.

Cyri targets Nictis N1 and deflects toward himself/his ally, because he expects Nictis to get doctored/investigated and wants to steal protection/"frame" Nictis.

Cyri deflects away from PyrrosWarrior N4 and towards Nictis. Nictis personally attacks Pyrros, bounces off, and kills himself. DG sees that Pyrros visited Nictis, but that's because everyone targeting DG was deflected to Nictis, and Nictis visited himself.

The scum RB is also on Cyri's team and has been continuously RBing me, to the eternal frustration of Nictis' team.

World in which only PyrrosWarrior is lying:
DG visits Cyricubed N1 and bounces off into a dead-or-scum visiting role that was not the scum blocker and wasn't me because neither of us visited Nictis that night.

DG visits PyrrosWarrior N4 and catches him visiting Nictis, which means he killed Nictis and is scum that's not on Nictis' team, and therefore none of the kills so far have been Bloodletter Brotherhood because there was no redirect of the kill last night. That or Pyrros is a Lawyer or something and on Nictis' team: he can't be a scumdoc because Nictis still died, and he can't be the RB because he was tracked to Nictis and I got blocked last night.

Conclusions:
Lynch either DG or Cyricubed today. Occam says if Pyrros is lying he's not lying alone.

 

[Evenstar]

Pencil in "Absum" for "dead or scum visiting role" on N1 in there, but not N4, because Absum is dead for that night.

I think I want to lynch Cyri. This is mainly because Nictis attacking Pyrros last night trying to kill the "hidden ringleader" of my Mason group and getting deflected back into his own face by an alert and on-the-ball Cyri is a hell of a lot more plausible than Nictis' scumteam trying to kill Cyri last night for some reason and having their kill randed back into their face.

Also, having a town Nexus in the game makes my recruitment an utter crapshoot: I can correctly read Cyri as town, try to recruit him, and be bounced off into scum through no fault of my own. A scum Deflector makes a hell of a lot more sense, because that punishes me for making my intended recruitment target public.

For these reasons,

[X] Lynch Cyricubed

 

[1KBestK]

World in which only PyrrosWarrior is lying:
DG visits Cyricubed N1 and bounces off into a dead-or-scum visiting role that was not the scum blocker and wasn't me because neither of us visited Nictis that night.

DG visits PyrrosWarrior N4 and catches him visiting Nictis, which means he killed Nictis and is scum that's not on Nictis' team, and therefore none of the kills so far have been Bloodletter Brotherhood because there was no redirect of the kill last night. That or Pyrros is a Lawyer or something and on Nictis' team: he can't be a scumdoc because Nictis still died, and he can't be the RB because he was tracked to Nictis and I got blocked last night.

Click to shrink...

Trying to do a writeup of hypotheticals myself, why can't it have been scum Pyrros gets deflected to nictis? Redirectors make my head hurt.

 

[Evenstar]

If Cyri really is a Town Nexus, I expect him to be laying breadcrumbs early in order to prevent his recruitment. If he can't point said breadcrumbs out right about now, I don't think there's much to discuss.

 

[Cyricubed]

If he can't point said breadcrumbs out right about now, I don't think there's much to discuss.

Click to shrink...

How am I supposed to lay breadcrumbs about something I didn't even know about until the last day, and even then I made it clear about that. Your telling me I should have lead hints to you about something I didn't even know you could do?

 

[Evenstar]

Trying to do a writeup of hypotheticals myself, why can't it have been scum Pyrros gets deflected to nictis? Redirectors make my head hurt.

Click to shrink...

Trying to do a writeup of hypotheticals myself, why can't it have been scum Pyrros gets deflected to nictis? Redirectors make my head hurt.

Click to shrink...

Pyross targets Cyri with the kill and gets randed into Nictis? Yeah, that's a possible world, and would explain why scum didn't shoot at Pyross. (They knew he was scum.)

In that case they would also know that I was lying about Pyross being in my masons, which might have nudged them towards trying to kill Cyri. I think this could have happened, but it still requires that:
1: A Town Nexus exists, making my recruitment a crapshoot.
2: That Nexus can redirect kills.
3: The kill got randed back into scum's faces, a 2/9 chance.
4: DG also got randed onto someone who visited Nictis on D1, which is like a 1/9 chance at best again.
The chance that these two rands go this way with Cyri!Nexus is about 2%. We're either in a pretty damn unlikely timeline or Cyri is just scum. I like my odds of Cyri just being scum.

 

[Evenstar]

How am I supposed to lay breadcrumbs about something I didn't even know about until the last day, and even then I made it clear about that. Your telling me I should have lead hints to you about something I didn't even know you could do?

Click to shrink...

I'm saying it's pretty bastard if you weren't warned you could accidentally doom me, yeah.

 

[Evenstar]

Wait, there's eight players alive

mmmm let's do the optimistic estimate

assume 3/10 living players were scum last night
assum 4 people targets nictis D1
Still only a 7% chance
Could have happened, still quite unlikely

 

[1KBestK]

Okay, we have 8 left. Two deaths a cycle. 1-2 scum remaining, unless the neighborhood is actually a cult or something. If either Even or Meso flips, we know the alignment of the other, as well as IH's alignment. We're not at MYLO here, as if we mislynch we either go to 5 town 1 scum or 4 town 2 scum. DG hasn't claimed yet, but nobody's claimed RBer. Probably more things I'm working off but forgetting...

[x] Lynch InterstellarHobo

Here's my reasoning. They aren't confirmed town to Meso or Even if we're believing them. Let's say they flip town. That confirms both Meso and Even as town, which isn't something I'm certain on. We go to either 5-1 or 4-2. That's Mylo if there's two left, but I think if IH is town it's extremely likely that DG is one of the remaining scum. If there's only one we get another day. Let's say they flip scum. There's two scenarios there - either it's a cult and we go to 4-2 and it's MYLO, or it's not and we either win or go to 5-1 and get another day. In either situation, we can then test if we're in a cult game relatively safely and get a win.

I don't like a meso lynch. It only proves one person town, whereas an IH lynch can prove two. Also, if this isn't a cult game, there's no way there are three scum left, so no cult means meso is guaranteed town. IH isn't.

I don't like an Evenstar lynch for similar reasons. Kills a potential town and only proves one in return, while leaving one still uncertain.

I don't like other lynches because I think we need to know if the neighborhood is legit. If there's anything wrong with my logic here point it out. I'm trying to account for a lot of things for the safest lynch but this game has been a nightmare so it's easily possible I'm missing something.

Click to shrink...

Okay, new info. Either DG, Cyric, or Pyrros is lying, and subsequently scum. I do not believe there is another redirector. Trying to bring that up feels kinda fishy to me.

Possible setups for this game are weird, and I'm probably overthinking things.

We could be dealing with a cult (even, meso, IH, and the deceased Nictis and LttL). That's five players, with one cult leader culting every night, that's five cultists if that's the case. I don't believe that we'd be dealing with cultafia because it's way OP and pawn worked on this game, so that would mean the killer is an SK. That would make it either Pyrros or DG. The Brotherhood being the cult and the SK being a barbarian, which is pretty on flavor for the kills. Things like meso mentioning his character has a crush on nictis's, and the general interplay between them are what have me on this. Last day could've been distancing. Unsure of how much I believe this theory, but I think it's likely enough to check. This is also the only way that Even and Nictis would have been on the same team, as I don't imagine there'd be a 5 man maf team (the neighborhood + nictis & lttl). If this is the case, the correct lynch is IH, for the reasons above.

We could be dealing with two teams of scum with the 3-4 scum split among them. If it's 2-2, one team is down and out, and that would mean the Bloodletter brotherhood weren't killers. Not sure what they could've been in this hypothetical - Nictis pushed the assassin angle hard, and both members were undercover. Nictis was a guard, and LttL was a monster inside of the body of a servant. Not sure if it was deception or genuinely exposing his own faction to have a pretty genuine setup 'speculation.' If it's 1-3 or 1-2 the solo player is likely the SK, as I'm not sure what else they could be, especially since the kill flavor doesn't really match the flavor of Nictis or LttL. No mentions of claw marks, nothing I'd associate with a guard double agent. Very much not assassinations. This would explain the whole Pyrros Cyric DG situation with the nictis NK - whoever killed nictis would also be scum, but of a different faction.

We could be dealing with one maf team of probably 4, possibly 3. Two members down. At this point i think Even's been doing more work on this possibility and I'm starting to get a headache trying to do this, so I'll take a break and come back later. Again, if I'm messing something up here, please leet me know. No clue where to go from here yet.

 

[Evenstar]

Okay, new info. Either DG, Cyric, or Pyrros is lying, and subsequently scum. I do not believe there is another redirector. Trying to bring that up feels kinda fishy to me.

Possible setups for this game are weird, and I'm probably overthinking things.

We could be dealing with a cult (even, meso, IH, and the deceased Nictis and LttL). That's five players, with one cult leader culting every night, that's five cultists if that's the case. I don't believe that we'd be dealing with cultafia because it's way OP and pawn worked on this game, so that would mean the killer is an SK. That would make it either Pyrros or DG. The Brotherhood being the cult and the SK being a barbarian, which is pretty on flavor for the kills. Things like meso mentioning his character has a crush on nictis's, and the general interplay between them are what have me on this. Last day could've been distancing. Unsure of how much I believe this theory, but I think it's likely enough to check. This is also the only way that Even and Nictis would have been on the same team, as I don't imagine there'd be a 5 man maf team (the neighborhood + nictis & lttl). If this is the case, the correct lynch is IH, for the reasons above.

We could be dealing with two teams of scum with the 3-4 scum split among them. If it's 2-2, one team is down and out, and that would mean the Bloodletter brotherhood weren't killers. Not sure what they could've been in this hypothetical - Nictis pushed the assassin angle hard, and both members were undercover. Nictis was a guard, and LttL was a monster inside of the body of a servant. Not sure if it was deception or genuinely exposing his own faction to have a pretty genuine setup 'speculation.' If it's 1-3 or 1-2 the solo player is likely the SK, as I'm not sure what else they could be, especially since the kill flavor doesn't really match the flavor of Nictis or LttL. No mentions of claw marks, nothing I'd associate with a guard double agent. Very much not assassinations. This would explain the whole Pyrros Cyric DG situation with the nictis NK - whoever killed nictis would also be scum, but of a different faction.

We could be dealing with one maf team of probably 4, possibly 3. Two members down. At this point i think Even's been doing more work on this possibility and I'm starting to get a headache trying to do this, so I'll take a break and come back later. Again, if I'm messing something up here, please leet me know. No clue where to go from here yet.

Click to shrink...

I feel like 2-2 split scum makes more sense, because Nictis was angling pretty desperately to get recruited the same nights I was being continuously blocked. That speaks to not all the scum being on the same page.

Unannounced Cult + SK is pretty damn bastard and not the case in this game. I know you don't trust me, but myself and Meso are in fact Masons.

Cultafia is broken as fuck and doesn't exist.

I think the Cult idea was raised by Nictis in the first place in order to discredit us if and when we went public. I'm frankly glad he's too dead to argue the point.

One mafia team of four might be possible if Pyrros is scum, but feels unlikely at this point.

 

[mesonoxian]

Okay, new info. Either DG, Cyric, or Pyrros is lying, and subsequently scum. I do not believe there is another redirector. Trying to bring that up feels kinda fishy to me.

Possible setups for this game are weird, and I'm probably overthinking things.

We could be dealing with a cult (even, meso, IH, and the deceased Nictis and LttL). That's five players, with one cult leader culting every night, that's five cultists if that's the case. I don't believe that we'd be dealing with cultafia because it's way OP and pawn worked on this game, so that would mean the killer is an SK. That would make it either Pyrros or DG. The Brotherhood being the cult and the SK being a barbarian, which is pretty on flavor for the kills. Things like meso mentioning his character has a crush on nictis's, and the general interplay between them are what have me on this. Last day could've been distancing. Unsure of how much I believe this theory, but I think it's likely enough to check. This is also the only way that Even and Nictis would have been on the same team, as I don't imagine there'd be a 5 man maf team (the neighborhood + nictis & lttl). If this is the case, the correct lynch is IH, for the reasons above.

We could be dealing with two teams of scum with the 3-4 scum split among them. If it's 2-2, one team is down and out, and that would mean the Bloodletter brotherhood weren't killers. Not sure what they could've been in this hypothetical - Nictis pushed the assassin angle hard, and both members were undercover. Nictis was a guard, and LttL was a monster inside of the body of a servant. Not sure if it was deception or genuinely exposing his own faction to have a pretty genuine setup 'speculation.' If it's 1-3 or 1-2 the solo player is likely the SK, as I'm not sure what else they could be, especially since the kill flavor doesn't really match the flavor of Nictis or LttL. No mentions of claw marks, nothing I'd associate with a guard double agent. Very much not assassinations. This would explain the whole Pyrros Cyric DG situation with the nictis NK - whoever killed nictis would also be scum, but of a different faction.

We could be dealing with one maf team of probably 4, possibly 3. Two members down. At this point i think Even's been doing more work on this possibility and I'm starting to get a headache trying to do this, so I'll take a break and come back later. Again, if I'm messing something up here, please leet me know. No clue where to go from here yet.

Click to shrink...

Just for clarity's sake, my character didn't actually have a crush on Nictis' character. She has a crush on the actual prince, who was given a different name in my characters fluff. I was just backing his bluff, thinking Nictis was town and was trying to attract scum kills for some reason (like being night kill immune or Paranoid). I was unsurprised he got targeted with a night kill. I was very surprised he turned out to be scum.

Since Nictis never got into the Masonry, I figured he knew the prince's actual name and used the wrong name to signal to us that he was lying about being the VIP. Since he was scum himself, maybe he didn't know I was given a name for that character and figured nobody would know.

 

[Evenstar]

There's a few ways:
Multiple scum factions
A vigilante
A redirector who isn't you
Some manner of one-shot kill immune + revenge kill?

The argument "how else could it have happened?" is never going to be strong, unless we have much more reliable information.
Personally, I'm suspecting the first option, since I find the idea that Reim has no participants in this game quite odd.

Click to shrink...

The issue is that everybody on this list would have strong reason to claim except the second scumteam. A Town Transporter, Vigilante, or Vengeful + Bulletproof role could solve the setup by claiming right now. Because none have claimed, none exist.