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Hmmph... this junior is a good seed [Cultivation Management Quest]

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    • Crunbum said:
    I mean since Old Cannibal is about to show up then they really wouldn't care about Manuel doing this or that in retaliation, they could just conquer us together since we'd be down two Nascents and they would have two Late Nascents on top of several lower stage ones.

    The Jingshen did not have a Spirit Severing booster legacy. Kinda hard to invade a Sect that has that while you have, at that point, a Mid Nascent and an Early, because the Yuan Lord would abandon us immediately if we lost two Early Nascents and had both OC and Blood Oak, both with a Late at the helm, breathing down our neck.

    I don't see us being whatsoever a threat to Blood Oak if that happened, a meal rather.

    So long as we succeed in Yuan and thus end up the turn with 2 Mid Nascents and 3 Early ones and a prosperous Clan by and large... why do we need to care about Blood Oak at that point?
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    We aren't fighting an Early and a Mid with potentially two Mids and three Earlies. We're fighting a Late, three Mids, and two Earlies, while an Early and a Mid are on our flanks and we don't know whose side they're on.

    The Blood Oak are on the opposite side of our territory as the Colossus Footstep Pass and the Abyssal Bee Mountains are. And our territory is huge. We have this many forces to contend with much more force than you propose -and our fight against the Jingshen is a statistical outlier. We're not going to mop up the Blood Oaks in one turn of war, and give next turn is Turn 17 and Old Cannibal comes back in Turn 18, we frankly don't have time for that.

    If their disposition is hostile and we have to act then we'll figure it out then. But I'd rather getting to know my devils first.
     
    Crunbum said:
    I mean since Old Cannibal is about to show up then they really wouldn't care about Manuel doing this or that in retaliation, they could just conquer us together since we'd be down two Nascents and they would have two Late Nascents on top of several lower stage ones.

    The Jingshen did not have a Spirit Severing booster legacy. Kinda hard to invade a Sect that has that while you have, at that point, a Mid Nascent and an Early, because the Yuan Lord would abandon us immediately if we lost two Early Nascents and had both OC and Blood Oak, both with a Late at the helm, breathing down our neck.

    I... really don't see Blood Oak needing to fear our retaliation if they were up a Late and we were down two Early, all while keeping their legacy superweapon largely intact in the process. Manuel would be about as much a threat to their survival at that point as a stray chicken, even if he were not Wounded.

    So long as we succeed in Yuan and thus end up the turn with 2 Mid Nascents and 3 Early ones and a prosperous Clan by and large... why do we need to care about Blood Oak at that point?
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    Because the Blood Oaks if prompted are literally a pointing dagger into our heart economically and we'd rather know if they're about to pull some shit before they pull of shit, and maybe get a nice little non-aggression pact going. We especially don't want say the Knowledge guys or Gao to use them as a stepping off point to raid and pillage our shit while OC and co are attacking us in earnest. Thier progression is poor, but since the Trial Lord only has to defend his own lands, we're more realistically 1 mid, 3 early, and two allies ns.


    So we're trying to make sure that the Oaks don't allow open borders shenanigans or outright attack us and now is the time to do so before it might be an issue later.
     
    Swordomatic said:
    We aren't fighting an Early and a Mid with potentially two Mids and three Earlies. We're fighting a Late, three Mids, and two Earlies, while an Early and a Mid are on our flanks and we don't know whose side they're on.

    The Blood Oak are on the opposite side of our territory as the Colossus Footstep Pass and the Abyssal Bee Mountains are. And our territory is huge. We have this many forces to contend with much more force than you propose -and our fight against the Jingshen is a statistical outlier. We're not going to mop up the Blood Oaks in one turn of war, and give next turn is Turn 17 and Old Cannibal comes back in Turn 18, we frankly don't have time for that.

    If their disposition is hostile and we have to act then we'll figure it out then. But I'd rather getting to know my devils first.
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    If Blood Oak is hostile and teams up with OC (and we didnt lose anyone trying to negotiate), we would be looking at..

    Blood Path = 1 Late, 4 Mid, 3 Early
    Golden Devils = 2 Mid, 3/4 Early (if formation counts)

    If 1 Late = 2 Mid = 4 Early, then they would be bringing 15 Nascent "Power" whereas we would have 8, on our home turf with major defensive advantages and better treasures to ourselves. For example, the Paint could probably give +2 Early Nascents worth for the war and the Yuan Lord could probably face up against two Mid Nascents if given the Gravebone Panoply, another +2, for a total of 12 before regular defensive bonuses.

    However, if we lost Klei and Casia and the Yuan Lord abandoned us for it, that would take half of our power base away and make us easy pickings.
    Even if we got Blood Oak's help, that still does not give us enough power to attack Old Cannibal's faction, only defend which we can do anyway.
     
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    Crunbum said:
    If Blood Oak is hostile and teams up with OC (and we didnt lose anyone trying to negotiate), we would be looking at..

    Blood Path = 1 Late, 4 Mid, 3 Early
    Golden Devils = 2 Mid, 3/4 Early (if formation counts)

    If 1 Late = 2 Mid = 4 Early, then they would be bringing 15 Nascent "Power" whereas we would have 8, on our home turf with major defensive advantages and better treasures to ourselves. For example, the Paint could probably give +2 Early Nascents worth for the war and the Yuan Lord could probably face up against two Mid Nascents if given the Gravebone Panoply, another +2, for a total of 12 before regular defensive bonuses.

    However, if we lost Klei and Casia and the Yuan Lord abandoned us for it, that would take half of our power base away and make us easy pickings.
    Even if we got Blood Oak's help, that still does not give us enough power to attack Old Cannibal's faction, only defend which we can do anyway.
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    If Nascent power could be crunched that easily, Manuel would have been destroyed by Old Cannibal during the Cannibal War that, last I checked, we won without taking a scratch.
     
    Crunbum said:
    If Blood Oak is hostile and teams up with OC (and we didnt lose anyone trying to negotiate), we would be looking at..

    Blood Path = 1 Late, 4 Mid, 3 Early
    Golden Devils = 2 Mid, 3/4 Early (if formation counts)

    If 1 Late = 2 Mid = 4 Early, then they would be bringing 15 Nascent "Power" whereas we would have 8, on our home turf with major defensive advantages and better treasures to ourselves. For example, the Paint could probably give a +2 Early Nascents worth for the war and the Yuan Lord with the Armor could probably face up against two Mid Nascents, too, so that's another +2, for a total of 12 before regular defensive bonuses.

    However, if we lost Klei and Casia and the Yuan Lord abandoned us for it, that would take half of our power base away and make us easy pickings.
    Even if we got Blood Oak's help, that still does not give us enough power to attack Old Cannibal's faction, only defend which we can do anyway.
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    So firstly, have you taken into account Oc's guys are a pile of backstabbing, and back eating monsters? They can't all cooperate together which means they're not hitting on all cylinders. Additionally, he HAS to keep some of his units at home to keep the peace and defend against any RP assault to take back stuff while he is away. So we're most likely looking at 2 mid and 1 late at most, 3 mid if the Oaks intervene. Substantially less, but still a threat.


    Secondly Kleisthenes has a LST, she's not dying. At most she'll be wounded and ugly from the LST, which while bad, isn't lethal. Part of why we're sending both Ns is to make sure that they know we don't want to start shit and also cover each other's backs.


    The Oaks are someone we're entirely unknown to, and that is the problem. The more information we have the better we can plan, and the better Manuel can divine secrets. Secrets are generally the things that kill or hurt you in this setting, as you can't defend from what you don't know. This attempts to remedy that.

    But the Oaks HAVE to be taken into account as they are a potential dagger that could stab the heart of our economy and could be used as a stepping off points for the Stronger NDA powers who don't share AL's ultimate vision. So it's best we do that before they may get any ideas.
     
    CuriousRaptor said:
    We still lose Manuel even WITH going full ham on a nat 1
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    We had nat ones before and there are degrees of wounds and possibilities for negative effects.

    Swordomatic said:
    I do not think Manuel is at much risk of dying, given what we've committed and what we will be committing - there's no way in hell Yuan isn't at least one Mission going forward and I've already put Katha (newly ascended at Foundation and she hits at FE14) down for Fanatically Aids The Clan - but if he does wind up dying anyways, then I can at least be glad that I've tried my best to balance these plates.
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    Is it only the nascent souls that are the problem here? Like if I posted a copy of Tehchron plan just with the The Gravebone Panoply instead of the insignia and fortress mounts would that be something you'll vote for?
     
    uri said:
    Is it only the nascent souls that are the problem here? Like if I posted a copy of Tehchron plan just with the The Gravebone Panoply instead of the insignia and fortress mounts would that be something you'll vote for?
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    I want a flying doom fortress, so unfortunately I wouldn't. The Insignia has potential to be an economic booster as well, and while I want the Gravebone Panoply, I don't want it enough to cut out either of the other two.
     
    CuriousRaptor said:
    So firstly, have you taken into account Oc's guys are a pile of backstabbing, and back eating monsters? They can't all cooperate together which means they're not hitting on all cylinders. Additionally, he HAS to keep some of his units at home to keep the peace and defend against any RP assault to take back stuff while he is away. So we're most likely looking at 2 mid and 1 late at most, 3 mid if the Oaks intervene. Substantially less, but still a threat.


    Secondly Kleisthenes has a LST, she's not dying. At most she'll be wounded and ugly from the LST, which while bad, isn't lethal. Part of why we're sending both Ns is to make sure that they know we don't want to start shit and also cover each other's backs.


    The Oaks are someone we're entirely unknown to, and that is the problem. The more information we have the better we can plan, and the better Manuel can divine secrets. Secrets are generally the things that kill or hurt you in this setting, as you can't defend from what you don't know. This attempts to remedy that.

    But the Oaks HAVE to be taken into account as they are a potential dagger that could stab the heart of our economy and could be used as a stepping off points for the Stronger NDA powers who don't share AL's ultimate vision. So it's best we do that before they may get any ideas.
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    I mean, precisely for those factors you mention, we should be perfectly capable of defending against both OC and Blood Oak even if they decide to cooperate. Our faction is far more cohesive than theirs - and if that assumption holds true, why would we want to negotiate with the latter or care what they do? They have 1 Mid 1 Early and even if they decided to help us, the Mid is almost certainly holding the home fort, so we would get an Early Nascent helper... and that's it? We are spending 2 Early Nascent actions and risking their lives for a *chance* that this happens? All while there is a small but non-zero chance that the Yuan War is a failure for it too and we lose their Mid Nascent (and/or get Manuel crippled or killed)?

    Unless you assume Blood Oak would send the Mid out of their heartlands to assist the Golden Devils that have the numbers to easily murder him out in the open and take his land since his Sect would only have a single Early Nascent remaining at that point? I don't find that likely.
     
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    Crunbum said:
    I mean, precisely for those factors you mention, we should be perfectly capable of defending against both OC and Blood Oak even if they decide to cooperate. If that assumption holds true - why would we want to negotiate with the latter or care what they do? They have 1 Mid 1 Early and even if they decided to help us, the Mid is almost certainly holding the home fort, so we would get an Early Nascent helper... and that's it?

    Unless you assume they would send the Mid out of their heartlands to assist the Golden Devils that have the numbers to easily murder him out in the open and take his land since Blood Oak would only have a single Early Nascent remaining at that point? I don't find that likely.
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    Because knowing their disposition, what deals they have running, and how likely they are to jump and where can only help us, and since they are on the entire opposite side from Oc's posse, if we can get them to play nice, we're not stuck in a two front war which is historically terrible for the people having to maintain two fronts. (No USA in ww2 doesn't count, they're more like the Fifth sea Trials than a constant war in that hitting them back was a pipe dream for one of the polities)
     
    CuriousRaptor said:
    Because knowing their disposition, what deals they have running, and how likely they are to jump and where can only help us, and since they are on the entire opposite side from Oc's posse, if we can get them to play nice, we're not stuck in a two front war which is historically terrible for the people having to maintain two fronts. (No USA in ww2 doesn't count, they're more like the Fifth sea Trials than a constant war in that hitting them back was a pipe dream for one of the polities)
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    Except Blood Oak is hardly going to do much against us offensively if we don't lose Nascents? They have a Mid and an Early and if either of them invades our lands, we can simply set up a trap to kill them (and then loot their sect) because Old Cannibal's Nascents would be unable to assist and we are something like four times stronger on Nascents alone, especially on the defense.

    However, the calculus massively changes if they murder one of our Early Nascents and one of Blood Oak's advances for it (even their Early to Mid). This alongside Old Cannibal closing in would make the Yuan Lord probably abandon our cause outright - and that's if we win the Yuan War and he survives despite us not stacking the deck as much as we could have, in the first place.
     
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    [X] Plan -ned Suppression

    I think this plan is more ambitious, but ambition is necessary and I think we can trust in the preparations we've made to see us through.
     
    Crunbum said:
    Except Blood Oak is hardly going to do much against us offensively if we don't lose Nascents? They have a Mid and an Early and if either of them invades our lands, we can simply set up a trap to kill them (and then loot their sect) because Old Cannibal's Nascents would be unable to assist and we are something like four times stronger on Nascents alone, especially on the defense.

    However, the calculus massively changes if they murder one of our Early Nascents and one of Blood Oak's advances for it (even their Early to Mid). This alongside Old Cannibal closing in would make the Yuan Lord probably abandon our cause outright - and that's if we win the Yuan War and he survives despite us not stacking the deck as much as we could have, in the first place.
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    They can still have conventional forces on raids, let a another non-Oak nascent through their lands into ours, or do some hinky hoodoo with their tree. And that's simply off the top of my head with no information on them beyond bare minimum. There's a lot they could do to cause issues short of Nascent intervention and frankly a well timed attack while we're dealing with Oc could be ruinous. So its generally a good diea to not let it get that point. Especially since yao could be occupied, the trial lord only needs to defend Yuan, and even if we catch their attack, they could outright cripple us if they play it right before we stop them.
     
    CuriousRaptor said:
    They can still have conventional forces on raids, let a another non-Oak nascent through their lands into ours, or do some hinky hoodoo with their tree. And that's simply off the top of my head with no information on them beyond bare minimum. There's a lot they could do to cause issues short of Nascent intervention and frankly a well timed attack while we're dealing with Oc could be ruinous. So its generally a good diea to not let it get that point. Especially since yao could be occupied, the trial lord only needs to defend Yuan, and even if we catch their attack, they could outright cripple us if they play it right before we stop them.
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    Sure it would be nice if we can get them to sit the conflict out. But is it really worth risking the loss of an otherwise guaranteed Mid Nascent (Yuan Lord), either because he dies or because he deserts us if one of the Early Nascents we are sending to negotiate with Blood Oak gets murdered and we get OC and BO collectively invading us? Is it worth the risk of Manuel getting crippled or even killed if things go wrong?

    On top of all that, we are investing in long-term growth Legacies while not picking up immediate combat boosts that we know we will need soon against OC invading our lands, regardless of how Blood Oak diplomacy goes. An example of what we could do that would only mildly reduce our chances with Blood Oak while minimizing the risks would be to buy the armor for Kleisthenes and have her negotiate alone (she can then do this safely unlike the current plan) while sending Manuel, Xinya and Casia to help the Yuan. It would even show off our two new Nascents to the world for a reputational gain and let them both get some relatively safe combat experience which they will soon need in a far riskier conflict.
     
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    Crunbum said:
    Sure it would be nice if we can get them to sit the conflict out. But is it really worth risking the loss of an otherwise guaranteed Mid Nascent (Yuan Lord), either because he dies or because he deserts us if one of the Early Nascents we are sending to negotiate with Blood Oak gets murdered and we get OC and BO collectively invading us? Is it worth the risk of Manuel getting crippled or even killed if things go wrong?

    On top of all that, we are investing in long-term growth Legacies while not picking up immediate combat boosts that we know we will need soon against OC invading our lands, regardless of how Blood Oak diplomacy goes. An example of what we could do that would only mildly reduce our chances with Blood Oak while minimizing the risks would be to buy the armor for Kleisthenes and send her in to negotiate alone (whereupon she would be entirely safe) while sending Manuel, Xinya and Casia to help the Yuan. It would even show off our two new Nascents to the world for a reputational gain and let them both get some relatively safe combat experience which they will soon need in a far riskier conflict.
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    The Trial Lord isn't at risk, not unless Manuel and Xinya get bodied horribly, and since you CLEARLY have not read this before despite my points, he is not beholden to defend us, only his own lands in our name. So frankly deploying him against OC is probably going to cost more than it's really worth unless we're desperate in the first place. Additionally, Manuel HAS to be deployed to Yuan to fulfill our pact. So, there will always be a risk to him. Even including every nascent we have wouldn't change that. Additionally, Casia is outright useless on a Nascent scale combat right now due to poor Dao for it and being new. She can, hopefully smooth over any hurt feeling with the Oaks. But to be sure, we need an escort for her. So we send Kleisthenes, because it not only upholds the Yuan commitment, but also works to soldify our borders.


    As for the Panoply? Yes, it's good, but we're trying to unlock something far more worthwhile to use Anvil's corpse on and the Insignia is an overall boost on the macro level. If we take the Panoply, we take neither and we have a shadow point hanging. It's inefficient and frankly we don't WANT them to know we have four nascents yet, because it gives us more flexibility than not. If at all possibly we're hoping Xinya is hidden still for more shenanigans later, because typically its secrets here that kill you, and with Manuel being able to suss out his enemy's? Well that means every secret he can use against them hurts all the more.
     
    Staff Notice -- Please treat your posts in a quest as an opportunity to engage and immerse with the material, rather than snipe at other questers. -Apocal
    I will say that narratively making stupid decisions while Manuel is not able to access his true thinking abilities is in character.

    Still making massive gambles for little reward is a weird position for the Council to take.
     
    I think my original post got buried but I'm kinda confused as to why we're (in my opinion) wasting Weeping Anvil's corpse on the Beast trap instead of saving it. Everything else in Plan -ned Suppression looks good otherwise.
     
    weeblypanda said:
    I think my original post got buried but I'm kinda confused as to why we're (in my opinion) wasting Weeping Anvil's corpse on the Beast trap instead of saving it. Everything else in Plan -ned Suppression looks good otherwise.
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    forums.sufficientvelocity.com

    Hmmph... this junior is a good seed [Cultivation Management Quest] Original - Fantasy

    [X] Plan -ned Suppression -[X] Set Prices High - Hold onto the supplies for now in case the Pass cannot be reopened for half a century or more. This will cause more casualties now, but less in the long-term. -[X] Wait, and see what else might arise. -[X] Fortifying (The Yuan Clan) - Spend Clan...
    forums.sufficientvelocity.com forums.sufficientvelocity.com

    That is the plan. It literally chooses the wait and see option for Weeping Anvil's corpse
     
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