Aabcehmu
Confusion as a Natural State of Being
- Location
- Chicago, IL
- Pronouns
- Any/All
Sorry, I had misread your post. I don't really have the spare brains to try and calculate out how my stance would change assuming that I was evaluating things with your estimates of risk, but I'll try again tomorrow.That's not what I was doing - I was asking if your preferred vote would change, if your risk estimates were similar to mine. And I'm mostly asking because you seem to be feeling kind of cheated, and I'd like to help with that.
(Although, if that isn't what's going on, and you just want to use the wish on a really cool fight or something, I can respect that.)
As for my evidence?
Given that we have a fair bit more than 30 Arete, we shouldn't need more than one or two picks. So we just need one decent fight - or to win a high-stakes negotiation. Heck, with the time pressure in place, just figuring out a door-puzzle might be enough. (It'd have to be a thematically appropriate door-puzzle, though.)
*The power from one-pick fights can be saved; we've seen this repeatedly. (I think we saw this most recently on the way to the Realm of Myth.) And we have one pick unaccounted for. So the obvious thing for Hunger to have done with it, in light of the Apocryphal Curse, is to have banked it for an emergency flash-buy.
If that is what he did, any one-pick fight would let us at least see Once and Future III, which might be enough to win on its' own - depending on what it does.
*We're at nine Letrizia pluses, and the time seems fairly appropriate both for getting the tenth, and for unlocking Super Juggernaut Undead Chimera. I've heard it won't actually give us a Shroud, but it would give us Military Rank 11 (or to be more specific, Base Rank 9.018125) and +100% to two stats (probably Agility and Charisma). Which really should be enough to win, or else OaF II is an outright liability.
*As such, I would expect three dangerous rolls max. One for target selection (perhaps there are genuinely threatening Chromatic Aberrations, even now), one for diplomancing the Arcanist, and one for miscellaneous dangers. We apparently had somewhat appropriate social stats for talking to her before Winter King and Renaissance Woman, and we're considerably better at that by now. I'd guess she was a 3.5 pick social negotiation before, and now she's 3.0.
So, not zero risk, but not multiple digit death chance.
I don't question our ability to find something, I question our ability to find something that isn't itself a meaningful risk, in the very short timespan we have before the armament arrives. Consequently the ability to buy things afterwards is, IMO, outweighed by the fact that we now have two fights, both of which might potentially proc the defensive wish.
SJUC probably will make winning against the armament much easier, though I suspect that would almost be entirely due to the increased rank, as an additional +100% multiplier on top of Hunger's relatively large Agility and Charisma multipliers would amount to something more like a x1.3 increase actual stat, IIRC. I am not convinced that we're going to have a good opportunity to get another +Letrizia that isn't quite costly, though.
And I still just think that there's too much risk involved in trying to contact the shade. We haven't ever gotten hard numbers of the survivability of her tomb and that worries me.