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A Simple Transaction I

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I've already told you exactly what you need to pick if you want diplomacy to have a good chance of success. That said, tactics are always useful.

BrainInAJar said:
If we took those odds before I'm willing to take them again.
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Even if you succeed, it may alter Hunger's characterization in a way the thread in general would be opposed to. It may not be wise to voice such arguments...
 
BrainInAJar said:
Yes; or rather, people don't want three Blade EFBs, and they certainly don't want to split EFB progress across two types. To act on those desire comes with increased risk, that's fine. Apparently have already have chosen options with higher death percentages then Avecarn, so there's partial obfuscation by Rihaku here. If we took those odds before I'm willing to take them again.

should have bough shadowlord lol

Huh? It's not like anyone argued Sliver wasn't directly more powerful. "better=/=more powerful". It's not like we could have bough Sliver here anyway; so Flare might have just saved our chances at the Trinity advancement. We wanted to buy Flare anyway, this just accelerates the time-table a bit.
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There certainly were people arguing for that. I guess that it ultimately it's just a matter of opinion, some people are willing to gamble with the odds for the sake of a cooler aesthetic.

While I love aesthetics, I just can't understand why people are willing to increase odds of death for the sake of them.

Seriously, the only thing everyone seems to agree on is that they don't want 3 sword advancements, despite Rihaku stating that they would likely have the largest overall survival odds of the temple.
 
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Rihaku said:
Even if you succeed, it may alter Hunger's characterization in a way the thread in general would be opposed to. It may not be wise to voice such arguments...
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I mean, Hunger doesn't actually know he's going to be running into a much higher ranked enemy, so he doesn't know he should be preparing for exactly that. So why would hunger's characterization be affected?

Xalvitor said:
While I love aesthetics, I just can't understand why people are willing to increase odds of death for the sake of them.

Seriously, the only thing everyone seems to agree on is that they don't want 3 sword advancements, despite Rihaku stating that they would likely have the largest overall survival odds of the temple.
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You are confusing my desire to not become... that with a desire to take greater risks. The thread long ago lost the plot, as far as I'm concerned. I have absolutely no clue why we keep making such ridiculously risky decisions when not forced into doing so.

Not wanting three sword EFBs is... unrelated to that. As I've said, I find the forebear about as horrifying as one can be, so actively want to avoid drawing on him if we do not need to.

It's kinda a shame Hunger can't decide on getting back to the temple it would be a good time to fix the weakness of his wraith form... Because that option would change things rather dramatically.
 
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Byzantine said:
I mean, Hunger doesn't actually know he's going to be running into a much higher ranked enemy, so he doesn't know he should be preparing for exactly that. So why would hunger's characterization be affected?
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The problem is less the vote and more the argument itself, because Hunger taking the attitude of being willing to take even 1% risk of death semi-constantly, would lead towards Hunger dying, either within the quest or in the epilogue.

Gamble 1% chance of death enough times and you will die. And we have done a lot worse than that overall.
 
Oh, good, they passed. Without even using the reroll! I was worried about what I was going to do if I couldn't follow through on any of my blurbs.
Though I suppose I could have fudged the numbers if I really got writer's blocked by it, but that's unprincipled.
 
Rihaku said:
For only 4 more Arete you get a guarantee of safety! That's not something to be easily ignored considering that Flare alone is somewhat less safe than Maximal Safety, which itself isn't a guarantee!
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The trouble, I think, is that our ability to reach 9 arete in a single update cycle is unproven, and that, if the difference is between the somewhat more likely bet of getting 5 arete with the gamble of Maximal Greed + Flare and the gamble of getting 9 arete and then the virtual guarantee of EFB Stance, many of us prefer the former since even it's overall a little less likely to have a good outcome, it also costs us less in the long run.
 
Byzantine said:
I mean, Hunger doesn't actually know he's going to be running into a much higher ranked enemy, so he doesn't know he should be preparing for exactly that. So why would hunger's characterization be affected?


You are confusing my desire to not become... that with a desire to take greater risks. The thread long ago lost the plot, as far as I'm concerned. I have absolutely no clue why we keep making such ridiculously risky decisions when not forced into doing so.

Not wanting three sword EFBs is... unrelated to that. As I've said, I find the forebear about as horrifying as one can be, so actively want to avoid drawing on him if we do not need to.

It's kinda a shame Hunger can't decide on getting back to the temple it would be a good time to fix the weakness of his wraith form... Because that option would change things rather dramatically.
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I actually agree with you, I would loathe to become the forebearer. I just don't think that Rihaku would pull an no Hunger, you are the forebearer, without at the very least a bit of warning.

Rihaku just isn't the type of GM to screw us in such a way, I think. If there was any canon indication that taking the three options would lead us to become closer to the forebearer, I would instantly change my attitude.
 
Xalvitor said:
Seriously, the only thing everyone seems to agree on is that they don't want 3 sword advancements, despite Rihaku stating that they would likely have the largest overall survival odds of the temple.
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There were indeed many opportunities to avoid facing an opponent of this calibre so early, be it in social combat or physical! But this is the situation as it stands, and you guys must decide on your optimal strategy for the situation!

Aabcehmu said:
The trouble, I think, is that our ability to reach 9 arete in a single update cycle is unproven, and that, if the difference is between the somewhat more likely bet of getting 5 arete with the gamble of Maximal Greed + Flare and the gamble of getting 9 arete and then the virtual guarantee of EFB Stance, many of us prefer the former since even it's overall a little less likely to have a good outcome, it also costs us less in the long run.
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You could also just hedge with Maximal Safety and save the old-fashioned way!
 
[X] Fine
[X] Maximal Greed

So, I feel we should not just give up one shadow lord and that we will be able to make the Arete we need in time. How much do we have anyways? While I understand that the Arete and pick are really nice, I don't think we should underestimate the usefulness of having a party member with steal capabilities as well as the ability to eventually internalize those capabilities. Even if we do not immediately make use of them in our infiltration, they may very well come in handy after we have infiltrated and need to skulk about to find the ring, or blackmai material, or information. Wouldn't it be nice to have a non social means to learn about things like the star forges and perhaps what they do not tell their base constituency about them. Just worried that we may pass up on a pretty good opportunity, especially because we do not necessarily know how the encampment will react to our infiltration. It would be nice to have someone capable of hiding Letrizia and the armament if they take it poorly. Mostly I am just arguing for shadow lord though. I'll probably be putting out some writing for Arete later, not sure how much I will manage but I will try and do my part.
 
Xalvitor said:
I actually agree with you, I would loathe to become the forebearer. I just don't think that Rihaku would pull an no Hunger, you are the forebearer, without at the very least a bit of warning.

Rihaku just isn't the type of GM to screw us in such a way, I think. If there was any canon indication that taking the three options would lead us to become closer to the forebearer, I would instantly change my attitude.
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I don't know anything about the Triple Blade advancement, but Once and Future happens to be pretty sus in my eyes!
 
Xalvitor said:
I actually agree with you, I would loathe to become the forebearer. I just don't think that Rihaku would pull an no Hunger, you are the forebearer, without at the very least a bit of warning.

Rihaku just isn't the type of GM to screw us in such a way, I think. If there was any canon indication that taking the three options would lead us to become closer to the forebearer, I would instantly change my attitude.
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Rihaku said:
[Once And Future] I - 25 Arete. Channel a fraction of the Forebear's true might, and glimpse a small fraction of his true history.
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Considering in Accursed Implement the Blade was his for literal aeons; the "small fraction" might be enough to overpower us. It will definitely change us no matter what though; for good or bad? That will depend.
 
Byzantine said:
What do you think all the "mental contamination" warnings are?


I have no clue what you mean.
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Pretty sure that the only mental contamination that we saw were the two thick as thieves and imprisoned. If there were further mental contamination risks that I didn't see, then I'm legitimately sorry.

With brain In a jar's post...I'm still unsure, but fair enough, channel enough of someone and you will become that individual. I'm retracting my previous support towards 3 sword EFB.
 
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People have been throwing around assumptions about the voterbase's desires for a Balanced Special Advancement vs a triple Blade one.

I will note that I'm on the side of Balance only insofar as I want both Ruling Ring and Total Eclipse. If we're not getting those, or putting those off in favour of e.g. Crimson Flair or Pillars, I see no reason to prefer Balance over getting Once and Future and an epic Stance.
 
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Xalvitor said:
The problem is less the vote and more the argument itself, because Hunger taking the attitude of being willing to take even 1% risk of death semi-constantly, would lead towards Hunger dying, either within the quest or in the epilogue.

Gamble 1% chance of death enough times and you will die. And we have done a lot worse than that overall.
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You have a 50% chance of death after taking 69 actions with 99% chance of survival. You have a 75% chance of death after taking 138 such actions. You have 90% chance of death after taking 230 such actions. You have 95% chance of death after taking 299 such actions.

Hunger needs to live for 9e29 additional years. If he takes even one fight this risky every year then the Steam Engine will have lasted longer (308 years) than Hunger's quest (< 300 years)
 
Zampano said:
You have a 50% chance of death after taking 69 actions with 99% chance of survival. You have a 75% chance of death after taking 138 such actions. You have 90% chance of death after taking 230 such actions. You have 95% chance of death after taking 299 such actions.

Hunger needs to live for 9e29 additional years. If he takes even one fight this risky every year then the Steam Engine will have lasted longer (308 years) than Hunger's quest (< 300 years)
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This isn't an entirely fair analyses, I think, since IIRC it is canonical that a Progression Cursebearer's early years are generally the hardest (relative to their ability). So extrapolating linear risk-taking behavior from the relatively small sample size we have right now, despite there being evidence for something sublinear, exaggerates the long-run downsides.
 
While all these danger calcs are true, it's unclear to me if we'll continue making these decisions outside the context of the Temple. Hasn't it been said that the Temple drastically increases the risk of death? I suspect (and hope) that we'll have better choices and options after the Temple arc is done.
 
Zampano said:
You have a 50% chance of death after taking 69 actions with 99% chance of survival. You have a 75% chance of death after taking 138 such actions. You have 90% chance of death after taking 230 such actions. You have 95% chance of death after taking 299 such actions.

Hunger needs to live for 9e29 additional years. If he takes even one fight this risky every year then the Steam Engine will have lasted longer (308 years) than Hunger's quest (< 300 years)
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If Hunger keeps taking the same amount of risk as he has inside the temple he will be dead within the week.

Now, I still prefer maximum safety: It provides the biggest odds of a successful social encounter and gives us a chance of defeating him in battle if it comes to blows
 
Zampano said:
You have a 50% chance of death after taking 69 actions with 99% chance of survival. You have a 75% chance of death after taking 138 such actions. You have 90% chance of death after taking 230 such actions. You have 95% chance of death after taking 299 such actions.

Hunger needs to live for 9e29 additional years. If he takes even one fight this risky every year then the Steam Engine will have lasted longer (308 years) than Hunger's quest (< 300 years)
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Outside of the meta arguments against that, eventually probability caps out though. If we are Progressing as fast as we are for all that time, it's possible we will have exhausted any actions that have even a 1% chance of death way before 300 years. Eventually you will get powerful enough to take the whole universe, is the point.
 
Xalvitor said:
If Hunger keeps taking the same amount of risk as he has inside the temple he will be dead within the week.

Now, I still prefer maximum safety: It provides the biggest odds of a successful social encounter and gives us a chance of defeating him in battle if it comes to blows
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Interestingly enough, Maximum Greed is currently leading in the build vote, followed closely by Maximum Safety! This is likely due to approval voting, but approval voters should still try to coordinate their spending plan preferences if Crimson Flare doesn't become viable in time!
 
BrainInAJar said:
Outside of the meta arguments against that, eventually probability caps out though. If we are Progressing as fast as we are for all that time, it's possible we will have exhausted any actions that have even a 1% chance of death way before 300 years. Eventually you will get powerful enough to take the whole universe, is the point.
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> Laughs in Rihaku:
Rihaku said:
Byzantine said:
The issue I have is people are being ridiculously greedy. Remember: In universe very, very little time has passed. We are growing at an astonishing rate. We need to stabilize and then we can pick whatever we want because Apocryphal can only find so many planetary-scale threats to throw at us that won't notice they are being pushed and bug out.
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Planetary? Get out of here with that weak shit.

Don't underestimate the power level of this verse.
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There is a power cap, yes, but Apocryphal was woven by enemies that can weigh down the Accursed himself. We are unlikely to run out of threats in a mere 3x10^-28th of the time-span covering our Indenture.
 
Your risk calculations can't stop me cause I can't understand math, so nyeh.

but jesus Christ, the math needed to generate even more arete is oof.
 
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