A Game of Crowns (Mafia)

In that case they would also know that I was lying about Pyross being in my masons, which might have nudged them towards trying to kill Cyri. I think this could have happened, but it still requires that:
1: A Town Nexus exists, making my recruitment a crapshoot.
2: That Nexus can redirect kills.
3: The kill got randed back into scum's faces, a 2/9 chance.
4: DG also got randed onto someone who visited Nictis on D1, which is like a 1/9 chance at best again.
The chance that these two rands go this way with Cyri!Nexus is about 2%. We're either in a pretty damn unlikely timeline or Cyri is just scum. I like my odds of Cyri just being scum

Wait, there's eight players alive

mmmm let's do the optimistic estimate

assume 3/10 living players were scum last night
assum 4 people targets nictis D1
Still only a 7% chance
Could have happened, still quite unlikely

This is some pretty crap math considering your compounding both of those percentages together on completely separate instances with a variety of different things influencing that. There are also some things we still have yet to know. What was Nani and others doing? Like christ don't you think I didn't like my role either? Your a 2-man BG mason that neighborizes. You realize how bloody strong that is? I think the only reason I exist is to tone down your flat out power in making an untouchable town-core. Good lord I will get back onto this later came on to glance over and get one of my three left finished but that's just damn aggrevating.
 
[x] lynch PyrrosWarrior

Yeah, cult and sk is probably too bastard. I think we have two scum teams. Nictis could've been friendly fire, but I think it's more likely that the other scum team bought his ploy about being the VIP, and were waiting to take him down after they'd NKed the protectives. The good news is that this 'proves' Meso and Even town from my perspective. Bad news is the last scum faction or SK still remains, and they seem to be the ones doing the killing and roleblocking.
 
@Evenstar Sorry if you already covered this, but what about this possibility:

Cyricubed is honest about being a nexus.
DG is honest about being a tracker.
Pyrros is lying and scum

Night 1 DG tracks Cyricubed and gets bounced to a dead visiting role

Night 4 DG tracks PyrrosWarrior.
Pyrros targets Cyriccubed and gets redirected to Nictis.

Then Pyrros could be scum, without introducing another redirector or assuming there is a separate scum team.
 
Pyross targets Cyri with the kill and gets randed into Nictis? Yeah, that's a possible world, and would explain why scum didn't shoot at Pyross. (They knew he was scum.)

In that case they would also know that I was lying about Pyross being in my masons, which might have nudged them towards trying to kill Cyri. I think this could have happened, but it still requires that:
1: A Town Nexus exists, making my recruitment a crapshoot.
2: That Nexus can redirect kills.
3: The kill got randed back into scum's faces, a 2/9 chance.
4: DG also got randed onto someone who visited Nictis on D1, which is like a 1/9 chance at best again.
The chance that these two rands go this way with Cyri!Nexus is about 2%. We're either in a pretty damn unlikely timeline or Cyri is just scum. I like my odds of Cyri just being scum.
Oh, yup, here is where you addressed that possibility. Sorry,
 
I feel like, since we aren't at MYLO, Pyrros is the right lynch over DG or Cyri at this point. If they're telling the truth, all we lose is a VT, and then we have a confscum in DG. We go to either 5-1 or 4-2, and then either win on the spot or go to 3-1, at which point it'd probably be easy to tell? Leaving more PRs alive means scum have to choose between killing conftown or town PRs, which seems good for us. Cyri also can't be the RBer if DG's claim is true, given that nictis wasn't RBed n1 IIRC, and ncitis also didn't die d1. Seems like we're in a relatively good place if we're right or wrong.
 
I feel like, since we aren't at MYLO, Pyrros is the right lynch over DG or Cyri at this point. If they're telling the truth, all we lose is a VT, and then we have a confscum in DG. We go to either 5-1 or 4-2, and then either win on the spot or go to 3-1, at which point it'd probably be easy to tell? Leaving more PRs alive means scum have to choose between killing conftown or town PRs, which seems good for us. Cyri also can't be the RBer if DG's claim is true, given that nictis wasn't RBed n1 IIRC, and ncitis also didn't die d1. Seems like we're in a relatively good place if we're right or wrong.
PyrrosWarrior and DG could both be town if there are two scum teams and a redirector hit DG last night. It doesn't seem likely though.
 
@DimensionalGuy what is your read on the situation? It seems very unlikely all three of you are telling the truth. Are you still sticking with your story? And if so, who do you think is lying?
 
PyrrosWarrior and DG could both be town if there are two scum teams and a redirector hit DG last night. It doesn't seem likely though.
Actually, if there's 2 scum left, that's not possible unless the redirector is town, and nobody's claimed that. There was a roleblock and a kill last night, so unless one scum can do both and the other can also redirect, that doesn't seem possible.
 
Actually, if there's 2 scum left, that's not possible unless the redirector is town, and nobody's claimed that. There was a roleblock and a kill last night, so unless one scum can do both and the other can also redirect, that doesn't seem possible.
Good point. I keep forgetting that scum probably can't kill and take an additional action overnight.

Unless Nictis was the roleblocker or redirector. Your night action still takes effect if you are killed, right?
 
But that's pretty unlikely, so probably one of the two of them is scum.
 
Good point. I keep forgetting that scum probably can't kill and take an additional action overnight.

Unless Nictis was the roleblocker or redirector. Your night action still takes effect if you are killed, right?
Depends on the role order, though I think most kills tend to be counted last so yes.

@ComiTurtle Since you are finally online, what do you think about these events?
 
I suppose Nictis could've been the roleblocker. I consider that to be rather improbable though.
@DimensionalGuy what is your read on the situation? It seems very unlikely all three of you are telling the truth. Are you still sticking with your story? And if so, who do you think is lying?
It is a certainty that one of us is lying. I can't see any reasonable situation where all of us are telling the truth, and I'm currently hedging my bets on the liar being PyrrosWarrior. Also, if someone is lying at this stage, then they are scum, pretty certainly.
 
I suppose Nictis could've been the roleblocker. I consider that to be rather improbable though.

It is a certainty that one of us is lying. I can't see any reasonable situation where all of us are telling the truth, and I'm currently hedging my bets on the liar being PyrrosWarrior. Also, if someone is lying at this stage, then they are scum, pretty certainly.
Forget it. I don't believe we have more than two factions and nothing you have said has actually convinced me you are in any way an innocent under some mistaken assumption. Furthermore, your avatar is legitimately annoying me at this point as it feels like it is mocking me with how easily you are getting away with blatant lurking and lying. Irrational, sure, but annoying nonetheless

[X] Lynch DimensionalGuy

I just really hope that you guys turn out to actually be scum, because otherwise you are doing an even more incompetent a job at clearing the kingdom of its attackers than I am.

This vote isn't going to go anywhere and I wish we could just lock my lynch and get Town's loss over with. I am reaching my wit's end with this game at this point and Ossha already resigned from being a substitute. I am trying to stay calm. I am trying not to give up, but it feels like nothing I ever say matters because people still never pay attention to what I say and what I have said regardless.

Even regardless of what happens here, I am definitely not joining the next Mafia game. I need a break from Mafia so I can actually use my free time to relax instead of pushing hours on end for arguments that are ineffective coming from me and half the time amount to no posts because I don't know what to say or how to say it. I have literally been consistently suspicious of Nictis and Evenstar this whole freaking game even as most of the rest of you easily bought their setup!

I am taking a break. I'll just keep rambling if I keep writing.
 
Forget it. I don't believe we have more than two factions and nothing you have said has actually convinced me you are in any way an innocent under some mistaken assumption. Furthermore, your avatar is legitimately annoying me at this point as it feels like it is mocking me with how easily you are getting away with blatant lurking and lying. Irrational, sure, but annoying nonetheless

[X] Lynch DimensionalGuy

I just really hope that you guys turn out to actually be scum, because otherwise you are doing an even more incompetent a job at clearing the kingdom of its attackers than I am.

This vote isn't going to go anywhere and I wish we could just lock my lynch and get Town's loss over with. I am reaching my wit's end with this game at this point and Ossha already resigned from being a substitute. I am trying to stay calm. I am trying not to give up, but it feels like nothing I ever say matters because people still never pay attention to what I say and what I have said regardless.

Even regardless of what happens here, I am definitely not joining the next Mafia game. I need a break from Mafia so I can actually use my free time to relax instead of pushing hours on end for arguments that are ineffective coming from me and half the time amount to no posts because I don't know what to say or how to say it. I have literally been consistently suspicious of Nictis and Evenstar this whole freaking game even as most of the rest of you easily bought their setup!

I am taking a break. I'll just keep rambling if I keep writing.
You only have two votes again you and over 60 hours until end of day. If you aren't enjoying this, take some time off. You don't have to play any harder than you feel like.

Being in exactly this situation, where there are several conflicting claims and at you don't know how many if any of them are accurate is exactly what is supposed to be exciting about playing. I'm really sorry you're not enjoying it. But please don't take votes against you as any sort of personal slight. This is for fun and we all want to win and some of us are lying and that is the whole premise of the game.

Getting lynched isn't losing or some comment on you as a player anyway. Somebody gets lynched day one after all. It is part of the fun to try to shift opinions and offer evidence. And when you're lynched you can go join the observer chat and make fun of us chumps who are still in the dark trying to scumhunt. :)
 
You only have two votes again you and over 60 hours until end of day. If you aren't enjoying this, take some time off. You don't have to play any harder than you feel like.

Being in exactly this situation, where there are several conflicting claims and at you don't know how many if any of them are accurate is exactly what is supposed to be exciting about playing. I'm really sorry you're not enjoying it. But please don't take votes against you as any sort of personal slight. This is for fun and we all want to win and some of us are lying and that is the whole premise of the game.

Getting lynched isn't losing or some comment on you as a player anyway. Somebody gets lynched day one after all. It is part of the fun to try to shift opinions and offer evidence. And when you're lynched you can go join the observer chat and make fun of us chumps who are still in the dark trying to scumhunt. :)
Eh, it's pretty stressful. I usually prefer when I'm not being lynched.
 
Pyrros isn't scum, I'm making a hard statement on that. I press x for doubt on the Nexus claim, because randomness is a very underused design for reasons because randomness doesn't let skill play much role. And I don't see scum targeting cyricubed last night for any rationale reason... though I can see scum attacking their own happened in Mafio Party, but its still pretty weird as a strategy because frankly, scum should've been in a fairly strong position so its extra weird for them to go for it which is why I'm not that Cyric is scum. And frankly, the flavor reason is super simple to come up within this context so I don't see why that should be an argument in their favor.

Next we have Dimensional Guy statements, they have this funkiness from their claim, they have 2 very easy nights myself and Absum, I've stated I've done nothing forever, however, then they have night 1 and night 4 strangeness, night 1 we get Cyric to corroborate their own claim in a sense by forcing them to claim an x-shot instead, but what is weird is given the highly low amount of individuals that appear to have visiting rolls the outcome of that investigation is visiting Nictis? That seems statistically unlikely to have occurred, it requires if Cyric isn't lying that they used their ability night 1, and that whomever they were rando-swapped with was a visiting roll which is what Absum, unknown Roleblocker, and Evenstar, or a dead player, and we know Absum didn't visit that night because they were RB'd and Evenstar is stating that they didn't visit Nictis, so the only person is really scum or a dead player visited Nictis...

So look at just how many assumptions have to be made for that to make sense, and yet in all that we end up with a focus on Pyrros being scum or not? The person who called my claim out basically immediately, how or why would scum immediately throw me out, I was trying to appear as a potential ally for them, Pyrros wouldn't do that not so immediately.

And 1k, I'm side-eyeing you, if Cyric is town, I believe you can't be, but Hobo is someone I'll need to review more. One of those 3 must be scum is something I'm confident in saying.

@Evenstar @mesonoxian I believe you said something along the lines of VIP based victory condition yesterday, please explain what that means given well you know Nictis being dead and scum and not a VIP?

I'll try and find the quote but that isn't sitting right with me. Though the only major reason I had a town read on Nictis was because of my town read of Evenstar so like, its frustrating that the cracks didn't form earlier because I would've gladly gone for Nictis earlier and longer, I even did day 3.

For now, though, my strongest doubt is on DG.

[X] Lynch DimensionalGuy
 
@Evenstar @mesonoxian I believe you said something along the lines of VIP based victory condition yesterday, please explain what that means given well you know Nictis being dead and scum and not a VIP?
I'm just basing that off the things the GM said in their day opening texts about lynchpins and the corpse "not being who some were hoping" or something like that. I have nothing more concrete than that.
 
And 1k, I'm side-eyeing you, if Cyric is town, I believe you can't be, but Hobo is someone I'll need to review more. One of those 3 must be scum is something I'm confident in saying.
Would you care to explain your reasoning? Maybe I'm being slow, but nothing I can see connects those three in the way Cyric/DG/Pyrros are by their conflicting claims.
 
Would you care to explain your reasoning? Maybe I'm being slow, but nothing I can see connects those three in the way Cyric/DG/Pyrros are by their conflicting claims.

Because I'm confident in scum DG and Town Pyrros, and I believe in 4 scum players in a game this size. Cyric has a convoluted reason to be scum, and that DG chooses to target Pyrros an individual I believe people have been very confident in being town for awhile while pushing Cyric a bit, I find those not chosen for pushes suspect if we take the moment to assume the DG is scum case.

If DG = Scum they have chosen to push against Cyric and Pyrros for distancing game based reasons. The question is why would DG not try and construct an argument against 1k or Hobo? 1k is in a similiar position to Pyrros, but frankly, I consider Pyrros' to have a stronger claim to town by their vote of me over my day 2 gambit claim. 1k doesn't have that same leniency to defend themselves... *

Then we look at it beside Hobo, if they were scum together they have strong reason to avoid pointing at them because they have the into your neighborhood and want to keep that idea as strong as possible casting doubt on that is dangerous for them.

*- Also why would DG target Absum night 3 and Pyrros night 4 of all the players in the game? Absum I kinda can see I mean I was trying to lynch them that day phase, so I'll drop that bit, but why Pyrros over Cyric again whom they've seen visit in the past, or 1k, hobo, even myself? These seem more likely to field results for town than Pyrros would they were claimed vanilla with fair argument based reasons behind that being fact?
 
Because I'm confident in scum DG and Town Pyrros, and I believe in 4 scum players in a game this size. Cyric has a convoluted reason to be scum, and that DG chooses to target Pyrros an individual I believe people have been very confident in being town for awhile while pushing Cyric a bit, I find those not chosen for pushes suspect if we take the moment to assume the DG is scum case.

If DG = Scum they have chosen to push against Cyric and Pyrros for distancing game based reasons. The question is why would DG not try and construct an argument against 1k or Hobo? 1k is in a similiar position to Pyrros, but frankly, I consider Pyrros' to have a stronger claim to town by their vote of me over my day 2 gambit claim. 1k doesn't have that same leniency to defend themselves... *

Then we look at it beside Hobo, if they were scum together they have strong reason to avoid pointing at them because they have the into your neighborhood and want to keep that idea as strong as possible casting doubt on that is dangerous for them.

*- Also why would DG target Absum night 3 and Pyrros night 4 of all the players in the game? Absum I kinda can see I mean I was trying to lynch them that day phase, so I'll drop that bit, but why Pyrros over Cyric again whom they've seen visit in the past, or 1k, hobo, even myself? These seem more likely to field results for town than Pyrros would they were claimed vanilla with fair argument based reasons behind that being fact?
Other than Pyrros, all DG's choices seem pretty defensible. N1 there was nothing to go on. Cyric posted pretty heavily, so that seems sufficient. N2 was after your gambit, and you were targeted. N3 Absum made a claim of having a visiting role and narrowly avoided a lynch. N4 is the only one that seems odd. Any explanation for why you picked Pyrros @DimensionalGuy ?
 
And 1k, I'm side-eyeing you, if Cyric is town, I believe you can't be, but Hobo is someone I'll need to review more. One of those 3 must be scum is something I'm confident in saying.
Why? I think two people have now mentioned they think I'm sus now but no real reasons given. Kinda annoying at this stage of the game.
 
Why? I think two people have now mentioned they think I'm sus now but no real reasons given. Kinda annoying at this stage of the game.

Okay, we have 8 left. Two deaths a cycle. 1-2 scum remaining, unless the neighborhood is actually a cult or something. If either Even or Meso flips, we know the alignment of the other, as well as IH's alignment. We're not at MYLO here, as if we mislynch we either go to 5 town 1 scum or 4 town 2 scum. DG hasn't claimed yet, but nobody's claimed RBer. Probably more things I'm working off but forgetting...

[x] Lynch InterstellarHobo

Here's my reasoning. They aren't confirmed town to Meso or Even if we're believing them. Let's say they flip town. That confirms both Meso and Even as town, which isn't something I'm certain on. We go to either 5-1 or 4-2. That's Mylo if there's two left, but I think if IH is town it's extremely likely that DG is one of the remaining scum. If there's only one we get another day. Let's say they flip scum. There's two scenarios there - either it's a cult and we go to 4-2 and it's MYLO, or it's not and we either win or go to 5-1 and get another day. In either situation, we can then test if we're in a cult game relatively safely and get a win.

I don't like a meso lynch. It only proves one person town, whereas an IH lynch can prove two. Also, if this isn't a cult game, there's no way there are three scum left, so no cult means meso is guaranteed town. IH isn't.

I don't like an Evenstar lynch for similar reasons. Kills a potential town and only proves one in return, while leaving one still uncertain.

I don't like other lynches because I think we need to know if the neighborhood is legit. If there's anything wrong with my logic here point it out. I'm trying to account for a lot of things for the safest lynch but this game has been a nightmare so it's easily possible I'm missing something.

To do a very quick response to that, today, in particular, you've voted and argued for what I'll call the "least bad option." Your vote onto Hobo was given with the argument of just trying to confirm Meso/Evenstar, not really seeming to have the intention of discovering scum, it acts purely to gain town information yes but may not put us towards really finding scum. If Hobo = Town it confirms Meso and Evenstar mostly, if Hobo = Scum it does about the same unless you assume cult or 5 scum so it really doesn't have that information granting advantage.

[x] lynch PyrrosWarrior

Yeah, cult and sk is probably too bastard. I think we have two scum teams. Nictis could've been friendly fire, but I think it's more likely that the other scum team bought his ploy about being the VIP, and were waiting to take him down after they'd NKed the protectives. The good news is that this 'proves' Meso and Even town from my perspective. Bad news is the last scum faction or SK still remains, and they seem to be the ones doing the killing and roleblocking.

I feel like, since we aren't at MYLO, Pyrros is the right lynch over DG or Cyri at this point. If they're telling the truth, all we lose is a VT, and then we have a confscum in DG. We go to either 5-1 or 4-2, and then either win on the spot or go to 3-1, at which point it'd probably be easy to tell? Leaving more PRs alive means scum have to choose between killing conftown or town PRs, which seems good for us. Cyri also can't be the RBer if DG's claim is true, given that nictis wasn't RBed n1 IIRC, and ncitis also didn't die d1. Seems like we're in a relatively good place if we're right or wrong.

Then you have your reasoning on Pyrros using the if Pyrros is town we've not lost much is an argument that always rings in my ears a bit, it is a fair rationale but I think it needs to be looked at in context of other factors. That make at least to me it more likely that Pyrros is town, meaning DG's chance of being scum raises significantly.

The least worst option has its place as a strategy, but it also risks delaying victory for town, which allows scum more time to act and find a way back into the game.
 
Also, people seemed to p
To do a very quick response to that, today, in particular, you've voted and argued for what I'll call the "least bad option." Your vote onto Hobo was given with the argument of just trying to confirm Meso/Evenstar, not really seeming to have the intention of discovering scum, it acts purely to gain town information yes but may not put us towards really finding scum. If Hobo = Town it confirms Meso and Evenstar mostly, if Hobo = Scum it does about the same unless you assume cult or 5 scum so it really doesn't have that information granting advantage.





Then you have your reasoning on Pyrros using the if Pyrros is town we've not lost much is an argument that always rings in my ears a bit, it is a fair rationale but I think it needs to be looked at in context of other factors. That make at least to me it more likely that Pyrros is town, meaning DG's chance of being scum raises significantly.

The least worst option has its place as a strategy, but it also risks delaying victory for town, which allows scum more time to act and find a way back into the game.
I mean, I guess that's fair? I just have no real confidence in reads at this point. That was kinda destroyed when Nictis flipped scum. I'm kinda still reeling and trying to figure out what's going on. It's become increasingly apparent that I can't read people for shit, and given I was saying i felt lost day four, I've... honestly given up on it. I'm retreating into mechanical analysis. I've tried to do reads but my eyes slide of the page at this point, and forcing the issue just makes my head hurt. I was stuck on the IH thing because I've been sus of even this whole game but I genuinely don't think that's a great point against me when I've since moved on from that because a cult doesn't make sense in a non-bastard game. At this point, I couldn't tell you if Pyrros, Cyri, or DG is more sus. Based on tone my read earlier, that i think i mentioned in my IH post, was DG, but I recall some decent argumentation and a few ISOs from them and from Cyri. I don't really remember what Pyrros has done this game and yeah that's on me but I really just don't have the energy to comb through anything at this point, so I'm trying to go for whatever option I think puts town in the best position mechanically. I don't really blame you if you think i'm more sus for that, I guess.
 
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