Attempting to Subvert the Plan: Dominion Edition

First time making a plan for the quest, hope it's satisfactory enough to gather some votes ^^. Tried my best to balance the various priorities (Reconstruction, Census, etc) alongside gathering more Dice/Bonus advantages to help us in the long run. Just look at how Neotextile saved us 100+ Resources for this turn, for example.
This Plan focuses on seeking advantages and creating a stronger foundation, such as acquiring more dice (Bureaucracy), gaining more funds (Investment), reducing project costs (Neotextiles) and reducing project length-time (SCVs).

[X] Plan: Strong Foundations, Investments, Reductions
-[X] Infrastructure = 5/5 dice + 1 FREE, -30 R
--[X] Korhal: Capital City Augustgrad (Phase 1) = 133/250 (2 dice, -10 R) 42.7%
--[X] Nephor II: Planetary Reconstruction (Phase 1) = 78/450 (4 dice, -20 R)
-[X] Heavy Industry = 4/4 dice + 1 FREE, -40 R
--[X] Vardona: Ardonin Heavy Vehicle Factory (Phase 1) = 153/250 (3 dice, -30 R) 89%
--[X] Nephor II: Nephor Industrial Megacomplex (Phase 1) = 80/350 (2 dice, -10 R)
-[X] Light Industry = 4/4 dice, -40 R
--[X] Vardona: Vespene Extraction Operations (Phase 1) = 0/550 (1 dice, -10 R)
--[X] Nephor II: Phoros Neotextile Fabrication Plant (Phase 2) = 116/250 (3 dice, -30 R) 80%
-[X] Environmental = 4/4 dice, -30 R
--[X] Korhal: Regreening Effort (Phase 1) = 0/150 (2 dice, -10 R)
--[X] Nephor II: Cap'n Yum-Yum's Fantabulous Foodularium = 0/150 (2 dice, -20 R)
-[X] Services = 4/4 dice, -40 R
--[X] Re-Establish the Universal News Network [Reconstruction] = 2/100 (2 dice, -20 R) 41%
--[X] Mass Literacy Movement (Phase 1) = 0/200 (2 dice, -20 R)
-[X] Military = 5/5 dice, -55 R
--[X] Nephor II: Fort Horner Marine Training Camp = 0/150 (3 dice, -15 R) 70%
--[X] Brontes: Refloating the Fleet (Phase 1) = 0/300 (2 dice, -40 R)
-[X] Research = 4/4 dice, -55 R
--[X] Korhal: Broken Mesa Xenobiology Institute = 50/150 (3 dice, -45 R) 74%
--[X] New Model Weaponry (Phase 1) (Tech) = 0/150 (1 dice, -10 R)
-[X] Bureaucracy = 4/4 dice + 2 FREE, -40 R
--[X] Truth and Reconciliation Committee (Idealistic) = 146/200 (1 dice, -5 R)
--[X] Conduct a Dominion-Wide Census [Reconstruction] = 42/300 (2 dice, -20 R)
--[X] Flesh Out the Remainder of the Bureaucracy = 62/200 (3 dice, -15 R) 78%
-[X] Personal = 4/4 dice, -45 F
--[X] Private Investments = DC 30/50/70 (3 dice, -30 F) 89.4%
--[X] Deadman's Rock: Authorize Arendt's Working Vacation = DC 20 (1 dice, -15 F) 75%

Total Cost: -330 R / -45 F
Projected Paranoia: +10 net gain


EDIT:
Removed variant of plan since it's against the spirit of the Plan Formatting Guidelines set by Etran.

[X] Plan Invest in the Future a Little
-[X] Infrastructure 5/5 35R (+4 modifier)
--[X] Korhal: Capital City Augustgrad (Phase 1) 2 dice 10R 52%
(-10 Paranoia when complete)
(Progress 133/250, -5R per die)
--[X] Nephor II: Planetary Reconstruction (Phase 1) 3 dice + 2 free dice 25R 22%
(Progress 78/450, -5R per die)
-[X] Heavy Industry 4/4 35R (-1 modifier)
--[X] Nephor II: Nephor Industrial Megacomplex (Phase 1) 1 die 5R 0%
(Provides Resource income)
(Progress 80/350, -5R per die)
--[X] Vardona: Ardonin Heavy Vehicle Factory (Phase 1) 3 dice 30R 90%
(Multiple projects finish faster upon completion) (+5 Paranoia when complete)
(Progress 153/250, -10R per die)
-[X] Light and Chemical Industry 4/4 60R (-1 modifier)
--[X] Vardona: Vespene Extraction Operations (Phase 1) 3 dice 30R 0%
(Provides Resource income upon completion)
(Progress 0/550, -10R per die)
--[X] Nephor II: Phoros Neotextile Fabrication Plant (Phase 2) 1 die + 2 free dice 30R 97%
(Reduces some per-die project costs upon completion)
(Progress 116/250, -10R per die)
-[X] Environmental 4/4 30R (-6 modifier)
--[X] Korhal: Regreening Effort (Phase 1) 2 dice 10R 7%
(+5 Paranoia upon completion)
(Progress 0/150, -5R per die)
--[X] Vardona: Subsidiary Hydroponics Effort 2 dice 10R 12%
(+5 Paranoia upon completion)
(Progress 0/150, -5R per die)
-[X] Services 4/4 40R (-6 modifier)
--[X] Mass Literacy Movement (Phase 1) 1 die 10R 0%
(+5 Paranoia when started, +5 Paranoia when complete)
(Progress 0/200, -10R per die)
--[X] Re-Establish the Universal News Network 3 dice 30R 75%
(+5 Paranoia when complete)
(Progress 2/100, -10R per die)
-[X] Military 5/5 40R (-1 modifier)
--[X] Brontes: Refloating the Fleet (Phase 1) 1 die 20R 0%
(-10 Paranoia when complete)
(Progress 0/300, -20R per die)
--[X] Nephor II: Fort Horner Marine Training Camp 4 die 20R 79%
(-5 Paranoia when complete)
(Progress 0/150, -5R per die)
-[X] Research 4/4 50R (-6 modifier)
--[X] Korhal: Broken Mesa Xenobiology Institute 2 die 30R 40%
(-10 Paranoia when complete)
(Progress 50/150, -15R per die)
--[X] New Model Weaponry (Phase 1) (Tech) 2 dice 20R 7%
(-10 Paranoia when complete)
(Progress 0/150, -10R per die)
-[X] Bureaucracy 4/4 30R (+4 modifier)
--[X] Truth and Reconciliation Committee (Idealistic) 2 dice 10R 85%
(+5 Paranoia when complete)
(Progress 146/200, -5R per die)
--[X] Conduct a Dominion-Wide Census 2 dice 20R 0%
(Progress 42/300, -10R per die)
-[X] Personal 4/4 40F (-6 modifier)
--[X] Private Investments 4 dice 40F DC70 97%
(DC 30/50/70, -10F per die, +5 Discretionary Funds per quarter per DC passed, failure incurs +5 Paranoia)
-[X] Free Dice 4/4
-[X] 2 in Infrastructure
-[X] 2 in Light and Chemical Industry
-[X] Resources stockpile 310/395 Income /315 Total /710
-[X] Discretionary Funds (F) stockpile 40/40 Income 0/25 Total 40/65

[X] Plan Breaking The Limits, Restoring Nephor, and Helping Vardona

Shifts two dice out of forcefully evicting people from where they're living and into helping people defend themselves from... um, people trying to evict them and take their stuff. Sadly, had to drop Arendt's Working Vacation because it was too expensive.

[X] Plan Breaking The Limits, Personal Version
-[X] Infrastructure (5/5 dice + 2 Free, 35R)
--[X] Korhal: Capital City Augustgrad (Phase 1) 133/250 (2 dice, 10R)
--[X] Nephor II: Planetary Reconstruction (Phase 1) 78/450 (5 dice, 25R)
-[X] Heavy Industry (4/4 dice, 25R)
--[X] Nephor II: Nephor Industrial Megacomplex (Phase 1) 80/350 (1 dice, 5 R)
--[X] Vardona: Ardonin Heavy Vehicle Factory (Phase 1) 153/250 (3 dice, 30 R)
-[X] Light Industry (4/4 dice, 40R)
--[X] Vardona: Vespene Extraction Operations (Phase 1) 0/550 (2 dice, 20 R)
--[X] Nephor II: Phoros Neotextile Fabrication Plant (Phase 2) (116/250) (2 dice 20 R)
-[X] Environmental (4/4 dice, 40R)
--[X] Korhal: Regreening Effort (Phase 1) 0/150 (2 dice, 10 R)
--[X] Vardona: Subsidiary Hydroponics Effort 0/150 (2 dice, 30 R)
-[X] Services (4/4 dice, 40R)
--[X] Re-Establish the Universal News Network [Reconstruction] 2/100 (3 dice, 30 R)
--[X] Mass Literacy Movement (Phase 1) 0/200, (1 dice, 10 R)
-[X] Military (5/5 dice, 55R)
--[X] Nephor II: Fort Horner Marine Training Camp 0/150 (3 dice, 15 R)
--[X] Brontes: Refloating the Fleet (Phase 1) 0/300 (2 dice, 20 R)
-[X] Research (4/4 dice, 50 R)
--[X] Korhal: Broken Mesa Xenobiology Institute 50/150 (2 dice, 30 R)
--[X] New Model Weaponry (Phase 1) (Tech) 0/150 (2 dice, 20 R)
-[X] Bureaucracy (4/4 dice, 30R)
--[X] Truth and Reconciliation Committee (Idealistic) 146/200 (2 dice, 10 R)
--[X] Conduct a Dominion-Wide Census [Reconstruction] 42/300 (2 dice, 20 R)
-[X] Personal (4/4, 60 F)
--[X] Raynor's Raiders: "Lose" Military Surplus [NEW] (2 dice, 20F) 75%
--[X] Nephor II: Contact the Industrial Workers' Trust (2 dice, 20F) 87%
--[X] Private Investments (2 dice, 20F) 91%/82%/68%

So I'm modifying my draft plan. Still, the big thing that I think distinguishes this plan from most competing alternatives is the push on Flesh Out The Bureaucracy, in an attempt to pick up more dice. There are valid arguments for making something else the focus of our actions, but this is what I favor.

---

Budget:
315 RpT
395 Stockpiled
65 Slush Funds

350/315 R (stockpile to 360)
4/4 Free dice

[] Plan Attempting to Expand Our Capabilities
-[] Infrastructure (5/5 dice + 3 Free, +4 bonus, 40 R)
--[] Korhal: Capital City Augustgrad (Phase 1) 133/250 (2 dice, 10 R) (57% chance)
--[] Nephor II: Planetary Reconstruction (Phase 1) 78/450 (6 dice, 30 R) (66% chance)
-[] Heavy Industry (4/4 dice, -1 penalty, 30 R)
--[] Vardona: Ardonin Heavy Vehicle Factory (Phase 1) 153/250 (2 dice, 20 R) (73% chance)
--[] Nephor II: Nephor Industrial Megacomplex (Phase 1) 80/350 (2 dice, 10 R) (2/4.5 median)
-[] Light Industry (4/4 dice, -1 penalty, 50 R)
--[] Sara System: Imperial Chemical-Mineral Survey 0/200 (2 dice, -30 R) (2/4 median)
--[] Nephor II: Phoros Neotextile Fabrication Plant (Phase 2) 116/250 (2 dice, -20 R) (50% chance)
-[] Environmental (4/4 dice, -6 penalty, 20 R)
--[] Korhal: Regreening Effort (Phase 1) 0/150 (4 dice, 20 R) (77% chance)
-[] Services (4/4 dice, -6 penalty, 40 R)
--[] Re-Establish the Universal News Network 2/100 (2 dice, 20 R) (56% chance)
--[] Mass Literacy Movement 0/200 (2 dice, 20 R) (2/4 median)
-[] Military (5/5 dice, -1 penalty, 80 R)
--[] Nephor II: Fort Horner Marine Training Camp 0/150 (2 dice, 20 R) (36% chance)
--[] Brontes: Refloating the Fleet (Phase 1) 0/300 (3 dice, 60 R) (3/6 median)
-[] Research (4/4 dice, -6 penalty, 50 R)
--[] Broken Mesa Xenobiology Institute 50/150 (2 dice, 30 R) (54% chance)
--[] Imperial Science University 0/150 (2 dice, 20 R) (15% chance)
-[] Bureaucracy (4/4 dice + 1 Free die, +4 bonus, 30 R)
--[] Truth and Reconciliation Committee (I) 146/200 (1 die, 5 R) (66% chance)
--[] Conduct a Dominion-Wide Census 42/300 (1 die, 10 R) (1/5 median)
--[] Flesh Out The Remainder of the Bureaucracy 62/200 (3 dice, 15 R) (78% chance)
-[] Personal (4/4 dice, -6 penalty, 45 F)
--[] Private Investments DC 30/50/70 (3 dice, 30 F) (98.4/95.2/89.4% chance of hitting each DC)
--[] Deadman's Rock: Authorize Arendt's Working Vacation = DC 20 (1 dice, 15 F)

X's removed for conservation; see my new plan post at the top of the next page...

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Infrastructure: I consider reconstruction on Nephor II to be a critical industrial goal; having the planet as a whole be a wreck cannot be good for our industrial base, including the shiny new facilities we're building there. Thanks to Uncrowned Queen, we can put two dice on Augustgrad and six dice on Nephor II, giving good odds to finish both and leaving a Free die for Bureaucracy.

Heavy Industry: I'm not putting Free dice here because it seems like a more important priority to put them on infrastructure and bureaucratic work so we have the capabilities to do better Cool Stuff later rather than grabbing the shiny up front. The SCV factory has a good chance of finishing with two dice; the remaining dice go to NIM, which is my second-highest priority in the category.

Light Industry: Since we're already halfway to completing Phase 2 of the Phoros factory, it seems the obvious move to invest a couple more dice in hopes of getting it. The remaining dice... Well, I was torn between multiple project options, but I think a survey of the Sara system is worthwhile. I could be persuaded to pick a different option here.

Environmental: With Korhal Regreening Effort being so cheap per die and likely to have good effects for future Korhal construction (such as reducing the number of radioactive dust storms), I think it's an obvious choice. Four dice gives us a good one-turn completion chance, even!

Services: Hopefully we can get UNN up and going again, then move on to the next big thing, which for now I think should be the literacy program.

Military: Fort Horner is still a good choice, but with the huge windfall from Brontes making it so easy to activate lots of dice, I move that we also begin work on Refloating the Fleet.

Research: Progress on Broken Mesa, and the university has virtues, though the Paranoia may rack up dangerously...

Bureaucracy: Basically, I'm no longer worried about us being able to fund all our dice, so I want to take the action that gives us more dice. It would be very helpful if we had enough Infrastructure dice that we could more reliably complete our reconstruction goals without needing constant Free dice investment, for instance. Since the census cannot be finished this turn anyway, I'm shifting the main effort to Flesh Out The Bureaucracy, while hopefully wrapping up the truth and reconciliation committees and at least keeping the census ticking over.

Personal: Bear with me here. As explained above, it's clear that for a lot of the Personal actions, we're going to want to spend 3+ dice (to minimize the risk of failure) at a cost of 10 F/die or more. Therefore, we need a budget of more than 25 FpT going into the slush fund. Therefore, we make investments. The income will pay for itself rapidly and we'll be able to do a lot more to fund Raynor's Raiders or handle other operations without taking painful risks and eating those big +10 and +20 Paranoia spikes.

I'm okay with Laurent's suggestion of including Arendt's 'vacation' there.

[X] Plan: Strong Foundations, Investments, Reductions
[X] Plan Attempting to Expand Our Capabilities
[X] Plan Attempting to Expand Our Capabilities, Now With 68% Less Paranoia!

[X] Plan: Step forward

[X] Plan Attempting to Expand Our Capabilities

[X] Plan Breaking The Limits, Restoring Nephor, and Helping Vardona

I am highly concerned about Plan Attempting to Expand Our Capabilities. It is currently projected to gain +25 Paranoia with zero reduction since it allocates less dice towards Black Mesa + Fort Horner, the 2 main projects which provide reduction this turn.
@Simon_Jester Do you have any plans on how to mitigate the Paranoia spike your plan is hitting? 45+25 = 70 Paranoia is enough to hit the threshold for Bad Things from Mengsk.

I think voters need to be wary of the Paranoia levels within plans, because most are hitting +10 to +15 Paranoia just from SCVs + Mass Literacy + Truth Committee. We need to account for reduction as well, unless we deliberately want to see how the Paranoia mechanic comes into effect.

[x] Plan Building Foundations and Helping People
-[x] Infrastructure (4/4 dice, 25R)
--[x] Korhal: Capital City Augustgrad (Phase 1) 133/250 (2 die, 10R) 43%
--[x] Nephor II: Planetary Reconstruction (Phase 1) 78/450 (3 dice, 15R) 0%
-[x] Heavy Industry (4/4 dice +4 Free, 55R)
--[x] Nephor II: Nephor Industrial Megacomplex (Phase 1) 80/350 (5 dice, 25 R) 66%
--[x] Vardona: Ardonin Heavy Vehicle Factory (Phase 1) 153/250 (3 dice, 30 R) 90%
-[x] Light Industry (4/4 dice, 40R)
--[x] Nephor II: Phoros Neotextile Fabrication Plant (Phase 2) 116/250 (3 dice, 30R) 81%
--[x] Tyrador IX: Refugee Workshops (Phase 2) [Reconstruction] [NEW] (1 die, 10R) 0%
-[x] Environmental (4/4 dice, 35R)
--[x] Nephor II: Cap'n Yum-Yum's Fantabulous Foodularium 0/150 (3 dice, 30 R) 60%
--[x] Korhal: Regreening Effort (Phase 1) (1 die, 5R) 0%
-[x] Services (4/4 dice, 35R)
--[x] Re-Establish the Universal News Network [Reconstruction] 2/100 (3 dice, 30 R) 75%
--[x] The Dominion Health Service (Phase 2) [NEW] (1 die, 5R) 0%
-[x] Military (5/5 dice, 35R)
--[x] Nephor II: Fort Horner Marine Training Camp 0/150 (4 dice, 20 R) 79%
--[x] Brontes: Fort Riley Orbital Training Center [NEW] (1 die, 15R) 0%
-[x] Research (4/4 dice, 50 R)
--[x] Korhal: Broken Mesa Xenobiology Institute 50/150 (2 dice, 30 R) 40%
--[x] New Model Weaponry (Phase 1) (Tech) 0/150 (2 dice, 20 R) 8%
-[x] Bureaucracy (4/4 dice, 30R)
--[x] Truth and Reconciliation Committee (Idealistic) 146/200 (2 dice, 10 R) 90%
--[x] Conduct a Dominion-Wide Census [Reconstruction] 42/300 (2 dice, 20 R) 0%
-[x] Personal (4/4, 30 F)
--[x] Raynor's Raiders: Request an Update [NEW] DC 40 (2 dice, 10 F) 87%
--[x] Nephor II: Contact the Industrial Workers' Trust, DC 40 (2 dice, 20 F) 87%



Gave in and swapped the Tyrador Farms for the Regreening, since a lot of people seem to consider it absolutely critical that we get started on that, even though I vehemently disagree. Primary focus of the plan is still on matters of reconstruction, alleviating the existing issues such as lack of food, lack of healthcare, and building up our capabilities via cost- and labor-saving projects.

[X] Plan Breaking The Limits, Restoring Nephor, and Helping Vardona
[X] Plan: Strong Foundations, Investments, Reductions

As far as Paranoia woes go, my plan will average +10*... but it will also put Broken Mesa (-10), Augustgrad (-10), Brontes Refloating (-10), and Weapons (-10) all in range. So a -40 reduction next turn, and an outside possibility of one or more of these being completed this turn.

*+15, but also remember the Paranoia-reducing action that autocompletes this turn. So +10

[X] Plan Breaking The Limits, Restoring Nephor, and Helping Vardona

[X] Plan Attempting to Expand Our Capabilities

I'll also say that narratively--not that it's in a plan, but just thinking it through on a narrative side--finishing the Stat Bureau before the Census feels kinda weird. "We definitely totally have a working statistics bureau, but don't ask us how many people they are, where they live, or what their jobs are."

This isn't actually a callout post to anyone, because I don't think any plans are going through Stat Bureaus first.

[X] Plan Attempting to Expand Our Capabilities
[X] Plan Attempting to Expand Our Capabilities, Now With 68% Less Paranoia!

LLSix said:

This isn't just aimed at you. I don't remember anyone commenting on it. But, it's not exactly unclear Mengsk is evil here:


Here we have the forced relocation of an indigenous population. One that has been brutalized by war. A war not between humanity and an alien threat, but one between factions of elitists (Mengsk and the Confederates) competing to see who can control the largest pile of smoldering ruins. "Rebuilding the Dominion Infrastructure" is not an unambiguous good. Setting aside what Mengsk is going to do with the infrastructure we're building him; there are real human costs associated just with the construction phases and Etranger has been pretty consistent about displaying that.

We can't even tell ourselves it's for their own good. Everyone who thinks leaving is a good idea has already left. Those who remain want so badly to stay that they are unleashing chemical weapons in their own homes. In their homes. Let that soak in for a little bit. Sit with this thought: how desperate would you have to be to open a canister of chlorine gas in your living room?

We need to be doing some rebuilding. People are suffering and need help, but most of them will never get help under Mengsk. So we should be making every effort to do good where we can, and Personal actions are more purely good than any other options open to us.

Click to expand...

Click to shrink...

You know, I could argue with you about the morality of the Megacomplex. I could explain how utilitarianism dictates that this must be done. I could expound on how we tried for a peaceful resolution, but received a closed fist instead of an open hand. I perhaps could even attempt to frame the refugees as the bad guys who are sabotaging our attempts to help so many other refugees for selfish reasons, although that's something of a stretch at best.

I could, but I won't, because, frankly, it doesn't matter. Fact of the matter is that we need to get the Megacomplex done in order to complete the plan goals. We need to complete the plan goals in order to stay Imperial Chancellor, and we need to stay Imperial Chancellor in order to overthrow Mengsk. Otherwise he'll just get someone else to do the job and/or we get eaten/killed/enslaved.

Likewise, we've got a ton of reconstruction projects that need to be done as part of the plan, and we have little to no idea how many phases each reconstruction project has. Until our situation is more stable, we can't really afford to place many free dice on personal actions, if any at all.

Don't get me wrong, it sucks, but that's the way the quest is structured. We need to do bad in order that we can do (hopefully greater) good. If you want a plan quest that has less morally questionable actions as a palette cleanser (not judging, there's a reason I quit the original Soviet plan quest), may I suggest Per Aspera, by Shadows. It's a quest that takes place in a world where WW2 was significantly more bloody than OTL, leading to a successful worldwide popular revolution against the nation states. It's highly enjoyable, and Shadows is quite a good QM.

You play as the head of the newly organized Interplanetary Exploration Cooperative, dedicated to spreading "peace, goodwill, investment, and scientific advances without discrimination or regard to old lines in the sand". Biggest moral debate in that thread from what I can recall was whether or not to give up on a plan goal after a particularly horrific series of dice rolls (4 rolls, only one of which was higher than an 8, and that one was an 18!) meant we had three dice, a +10 bonus, and a single reroll that isn't best of reroll and original roll, to get 275 points of progress done on a plan goal in a single turn. Thankfully, we were given an option to turn resources into progress on that one project. Probably helped that we spent all but one eligible die on the project that budget cycle, and the odd die out was needed so we could safely complete another plan goal.

I'd caution against Simon's plan on Paranoia grounds. He doesn't do enough to either reduce Paranoia this turn or setup mitigation for it next turn, thereby risking crisis and catastrophe through a series of choices that wouldn't be bad if they weren't all put together combined with a lack of mitigation action.

Like, why are we starting the Imperial University (which if we complete it next turn is another +5 Paranoia we can't afford, so we'll have to stop taking it next turn anyways) rather than setting up the -10 BNW Research option to complete easily next turn?

The Laurent said:

I'll also say that narratively--not that it's in a plan, but just thinking it through on a narrative side--finishing the Stat Bureau before the Census feels kinda weird. "We definitely totally have a working statistics bureau, but don't ask us how many people they are, where they live, or what their jobs are."

Click to expand...

Click to shrink...

They'd be more effective with census data to work from, but I'd guess there's plenty that they could do even without it. You don't need to know everything in order to do maths on what you can see.

They could use price data from the major cities in each planet to work up consumer price and inflation indices, or look at interplanetary trade volume and use that as a proxy for industrial output. The new health system should probably be keeping records as well, so that's reasonably good data on births and disease incidence and stuff, at least in major cities. Likewise, everyone who comes through the Labor Corps and the military ought to be registered, at least on paper. That's a fair amount of information to work from, even if it's a skewed sample.

It's a good point, though. A lot of this stuff is interconnected.

I continue to feel concerned about Simon's plan which dives headfirst towards triggering Mengsk's Paranoia. Are players aware of this potential issue when voting for it? I'm not sure of the overall sentiment since most don't elaborate their votes and why the support something.

I want to back simons plan but I feel like it needs to lose Imperial university and flip making actual news into a propaganda outlit because I do not want to play games with mengsk deciding to really audit our actions
I do not want to get shot by a magic bullet from Terra Nova

Honestly all it really needs to be fine--if not my plan--is lose imperial university. The +5 from UNN is a completely acceptable cost, but the plan spends way too much time and effort going after everything that increases Paranoia?

It's not some unsalvageable plan even if I disagree with several sections. But there's a few slightly iffy decisions, IMO.

Bureaucracy and Research mostly, tbh.

[X] Plan Attempting to Expand Our Capabilities
There's plenty of paranoia increasing actions here, sure, but the dice are spread out enough that I don't think we'll hit a crisis point, especially since more dice means we can better reduce paranoia. Plus, odds are at least one of the three paranoia reducers gets done. But if folks want a less paranoia-raising plan…


[X] Plan Attempting to Expand Our Capabilities w/New Model
-[X] Infrastructure (5/5 dice + 3 Free, +4 bonus, 40 R)
--[X] Korhal: Capital City Augustgrad (Phase 1) 133/250 (2 dice, 10 R) (57% chance)
--[X] Nephor II: Planetary Reconstruction (Phase 1) 78/450 (6 dice, 30 R) (66% chance)
-[X] Heavy Industry (4/4 dice, -1 penalty, 30 R)
--[X] Vardona: Ardonin Heavy Vehicle Factory (Phase 1) 153/250 (2 dice, 20 R) (73% chance)
--[X] Nephor II: Nephor Industrial Megacomplex (Phase 1) 80/350 (2 dice, 10 R) (2/4.5 median)
-[X] Light Industry (4/4 dice, -1 penalty, 50 R)
--[X] Sara System: Imperial Chemical-Mineral Survey 0/200 (2 dice, -30 R) (2/4 median)
--[X] Nephor II: Phoros Neotextile Fabrication Plant (Phase 2) 116/250 (2 dice, -20 R) (50% chance)
-[X] Environmental (4/4 dice, -6 penalty, 20 R)
--[X] Korhal: Regreening Effort (Phase 1) 0/150 (4 dice, 20 R) (77% chance)
-[X] Services (4/4 dice, -6 penalty, 40 R)
--[X] Re-Establish the Universal News Network 2/100 (2 dice, 20 R) (56% chance)
--[X] Mass Literacy Movement 0/200 (2 dice, 20 R) (2/4 median)
-[X] Military (5/5 dice, -1 penalty, 80 R)
--[X] Nephor II: Fort Horner Marine Training Camp 0/150 (2 dice, 20 R) (36% chance)
--[X] Brontes: Refloating the Fleet (Phase 1) 0/300 (3 dice, 60 R) (3/6 median)
-[X] Research (4/4 dice, -6 penalty, 50 R)
--[X] Broken Mesa Xenobiology Institute 50/150 (2 dice, 30 R) (54% chance)
--[X] New Model Weaponry (Phase 1) (Tech) 0/150 (2 dice, 20 R) 8%
-[X] Bureaucracy (4/4 dice + 1 Free die, +4 bonus, 30 R)
--[X] Truth and Reconciliation Committee (I) 146/200 (1 die, 5 R) (66% chance)
--[X] Conduct a Dominion-Wide Census 42/300 (1 die, 10 R) (1/5 median)
--[X] Flesh Out The Remainder of the Bureaucracy 62/200 (3 dice, 15 R) (78% chance)
-[X] Personal (4/4 dice, -6 penalty, 45 F)
--[X] Private Investments DC 30/50/70 (3 dice, 30 F) (98.4/95.2/89.4% chance of hitting each DC)
--[X] Deadman's Rock: Authorize Arendt's Working Vacation = DC 20 (1 dice, 15 F)

Edit:
[X] Plan Attempting to Expand Our Capabilities, Now With 68% Less Paranoia!

I'm just going to very briefly say that, re: the Megacomplex, the best way to address that particular issue is either to make a more dedicated investment in the project to produce a better die result (which in addition to finishing faster tends to produce more efficient and more creative outcomes), or to write an omake on the subject, which if deemed semi-canon or canon could produce related narrative or mechanical benefits in addition to the generic bonus. Not investing in the project isn't really a viable option as far as achieving a good quest outcome goes.

The Laurent said:

I'll also say that narratively--not that it's in a plan, but just thinking it through on a narrative side--finishing the Stat Bureau before the Census feels kinda weird. "We definitely totally have a working statistics bureau, but don't ask us how many people they are, where they live, or what their jobs are."

This isn't actually a callout post to anyone, because I don't think any plans are going through Stat Bureaus first.

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I dunno. I can see the logic. The statisticians' job is to help plan the census. You know, to facepalm where we asked stupid census questions or left out important information. And to do some basic numerical analysis and say "yeah, I'm pretty sure half the census-takers in this district are just chilling in a bar and faking the records."

The Laurent said:

I'd caution against Simon's plan on Paranoia grounds. He doesn't do enough to either reduce Paranoia this turn or setup mitigation for it next turn, thereby risking crisis and catastrophe through a series of choices that wouldn't be bad if they weren't all put together combined with a lack of mitigation action.

Like, why are we starting the Imperial University (which if we complete it next turn is another +5 Paranoia we can't afford, so we'll have to stop taking it next turn anyways) rather than setting up the -10 BNW Research option to complete easily next turn?

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Because I'm confident we can do that project in Q3-Q4 to tamp Paranoia back down.

More generally, let's do a breakdown.

57% chance Augustgrad Phase 1 (-10 P)
54% chance Broken Mesa (-10 P)
36% chance Fort Horner Training Camp (-5 P)
3/6 dice on Refloating The Fleet (-10 P, but not this turn)

100% chance starting Mass Literacy Movement (+5 P, no chance of the other +5 P this turn)
78% chance Flesh Out The Remainder Of The Bureaucracy (+5 P)
77% chance Korhal Regreening Effort Phase 1 (+5 P)
73% chance Vardona SCV Factory Phase 1 (+5 P)
66% chance Truth And Reconciliation Committee (+5 P)
56% chance Re-Establish UNN (+5 P)
15% chance Imperial Science University (+5 P)
~10% chance Deadman's Rock failure (+10 P)
1.6% chance Private Investments failure (+5 P)

So in terms of projects initiated or underway, this comes very close to balancing out. -35 P of projects started or underway, +40 P of projects started.

If we focus on what are called "expectation values," where we weight to calculate the probable effect of a bunch of random events by averaging, we get:

0.57(-10)+0.54(-10)+0.36(-5)+5+0.78(5)+0.77(5)+0.73(5)+0.66(5)+0.56(5)+0.15(5)+0.1(10)+0.016(5)
+11.43 Expected Paranoia

The main things going on here is that the +5 Paranoia non-Personal options all have better-than-even chances of completion, except the university which has a very low chance of completion and thus has little impact on the overall outcome- it is unlikely to make things much worse. An equal number of dice spent on New Model Weaponry would have the same problem in reverse: a 15% chance of -10 Paranoia is nice, but not that big of a deal.

...

Only in worst case scenarios do we gain more than about 10-15 Paranoia, and in all those scenarios it is because we have multiple major -Paranoia projects ready to go, having already completed a lot of +Paranoia projects. If my plan wins and the worst happens (e.g. we lose the coin tosses on both our -10 Paranoia sinks and do 'well' on the +5 Paranoia things)... Then in Q3 we can throw up to five dice at Refloating the Fleet, finish Augustgrad Phase 1 and Broken Mesa with near-total confidence, and still have dice left over for a -Paranoia research option even while spending one die to finish off the university.

BUT.

BUT BUT BUT.

What would we do if we wanted to lower Paranoia costs associated with this project?

Well, the things we'd need to cut the most, the most pressing "slash this" things... We need to increase the chances of completing -Paranoia projects and eliminate +Paranoia projects that are not immediately beneficial.

The 'best' thing we could do would be to skip the literacy drives, of course, since that has an immediate 100% chance of +5 Paranoia right out the gate. Flipping those dice to Dominion Health Service would forestall the problem. But cutting the literacy program isn't likely to go over well with voters.

What else could we do?

Korhal Regreening is nice but has no direct immediate impact on the Dominion economy. Why risk the Mengsk aggro, if that's what we're worrying about? Eliminating the regreening effort (77% chance of +5P, expectation value +3.85 Expected Paranoia) is much more impactful than flipping from the university to the machine guns (15% chance of +5P to 15% chance of -10P, with a relative change of -2.25 Expected Paranoia)

Shifting a die from the universities to Broken Mesa gives us a far better chance to avoid Paranoia, eliminating 0.75 Expected Paranoia, and giving us a significantly higher chance of getting Broken Mesa's -10 Paranoia.

Canceling Arendt's trip gives us -1 Expected Paranoia immediately, along with conserving slush fund money for daring and costly actions next turn.

Shifting a die from the Nephor II reconstruction to Augustgrad gives us a much higher chance, again. But I am loath to do that, because I believe it's bad for our industrial recovery.

So I'm going to start playing around to come up with a less-Paranoia version of the plan.

Hunter531 said:

There's plenty of paranoia increasing actions here, sure, but the dice are spread out enough that I don't think we'll hit a crisis point, especially since more dice means we can better reduce paranoia. Plus, odds are at least one of the three paranoia reducers gets done. But if folks want a less paranoia-raising plan…

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As I discuss, flipping out the university for the new machine guns doesn't make much difference because either way, the action is very unlikely to complete with only the two dice invested. I'm working on my own low-Paranoia version.

The Laurent said:

Honestly all it really needs to be fine--if not my plan--is lose imperial university. The +5 from UNN is a completely acceptable cost, but the plan spends way too much time and effort going after everything that increases Paranoia?

It's not some unsalvageable plan even if I disagree with several sections. But there's a few slightly iffy decisions, IMO.

Bureaucracy and Research mostly, tbh.

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Focusing in on the university is one of the least impactful changes to that plan that you could make to limit its short-term Paranoia cost. In the medium term, the only way to avoid that cost is to never take the project at all, which seems inadvisable.