WI: 2020 Pacific US + British Columbia ISOTed to 1968

[jenalysis]

I think you're overestimating the amount of anti-Soviet paranoia uptimers will have. Especially when some of them assume the problem wasn't the Soviets, but what happened after.

The downtimers , knowing they'll win in the end, might want to either repeat or accelerate what did it- they might want Reagan-era foreign policy in the 70s. There would probably be some real debate on this. I assume the Soviets would want detente, and might try to change things.

Here's a question, would uptimers help in Vietnam? I could see that being a faultline- I can see uptimer folks outright refusing draft orders, but uptimer air power might shift things in Vietnam. I assume the active-duty military will obey the downtimer president, as they'd see him as legitimate though they would advise rather strenuously smarter options.

 

[Nyvis]

I think you're overestimating the amount of anti-Soviet paranoia uptimers will have. Especially when some of them assume the problem wasn't the Soviets, but what happened after.

The downtimers , knowing they'll win in the end, might want to either repeat or accelerate what did it- they might want Reagan-era foreign policy in the 70s. There would probably be some real debate on this. I assume the Soviets would want detente, and might try to change things.

Here's a question, would uptimers help in Vietnam? I could see that being a faultline- I can see uptimer folks outright refusing draft orders, but uptimer air power might shift things in Vietnam. I assume the active-duty military will obey the downtimer president, as they'd see him as legitimate though they would advise rather strenuously smarter options.

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Outright war with a draft is probably what would break the uptimers' support for anti-communism yes. But with their technology and experience of air power based warfare, plus the knowledge of how the draft would be received, I think the US would just avoid this faultline.

 

[jenalysis]

Here's how I think the internet would be developed with prior knowledge

I think it would be a two-step process
The first one being a phoneline internet with modems, run by the phone companies.

Cable TV/internet would be treated as a public utility due to uptimer demand, so we'd avoid the Comcast/TWC/Charter issues. Given how miraculous the technology seems, I think we'd run ahead of time on it, but I think that would also result in running ahead of time on the problems of the internet.

 

[the atom]

On the other hand, California also has a ton of machine politics democrats who stand with the establishment in lockstep despite their much more liberal home state. They'll have to figure out who's the establishment now

But yeah, the renewed popularity of left leaning economic solutions is likely to avert the OTL move away from New Deal policies to some degree, and the uptime democrats know you can crack into the south with some effort, since we're starting to see it right now. They'll probably be more watchful about voter suppression.

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Inroads into the south are possible now only thanks to 50 years of changing demographics and they still haven't cracked that dam. A much whiter, much more racist South is a writeoff.

I don't think you'd any side pushing to accelerate the timetable. Uptimers know how the fall of the USSR was mismanaged and led to Putin. They're going to push detente, gradual reform of USSR, and much more generous terms when it's done. Maybe an assassination attempt on Putin though.

Iran is another area where I could see US doing things differently.

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Speaking of the Middle East, their entire outlook on it will change overnight. They, A: know about all the deposits in North America now and they have the technology to get them and B: have viable alternatives to fossils fuels right there.

The Middle East might still be on their radar for Cold War purposes but it's profile has shrunk dramatically.

Outright war with a draft is probably what would break the uptimers' support for anti-communism yes. But with their technology and experience of air power based warfare, plus the knowledge of how the draft would be received, I think the US would just avoid this faultline.

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The draft has already been in place for a few years, but with COVID still around the issue of uptime conscription will no doubt be put off for a year or two.

While they might just try to tech their way to victory instead of throwing bodies at the problem, I think the chaos of the shift and the threat of COVID might offer Johnson the out he was looking for.

 

[jenalysis]

In terms of the middle east, with our knowledge of climate change, I expect we'll be pushing alternative energy sources a lot faster and harder, and spreading that tech worldwide (it's in our interest as well, and we'll happily share it with even the Soviets)

 

[HaydenS222]

Frankly the easiest way to really make an impact on Climate Change during this time is to go all in on nuclear. The US might not and instead focus on renewables with uptime help but I'd guess the Soviets are going to be pumping out tons of nuclear plants. With special care to avoid a Chernobyl.

 

[Random832]

the ISOT goes up to 1000ft underground and includes the Hoover Dam.

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The Hoover dam was not included in the California ISOT, though by its rules it would be included if Nevada were on the list of states. You're thinking of the Parker dam [and in general any dams/bridges across the Colorado river on the California/Arizona border].

Regardless, both dams already existed by 1968, so there's no real need to specify their fates other than perhaps "there aren't any weird fault lines created in structures straddling the border that existed in both times"

 

[Madam Carstein]

That's kinda naive. To a lot of the older uptimers, the USSR is still the ultimate enemy, and they now know how it fell. I doubt they want to maintain a challenger, even a reformed one. I could also see the more hawkish ones having a go at preventing China's rise to maintain US hegemony.

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Cutting down the USSR and China are mutually-irreconcilable goals: the US can't oppose China and the USSR. It has to pick one or the other, something which the Sino-Soviet Split, which is at its most extreme and dangerous extent in this period, makes extremely easy. Not to mention, this is 1968, China is in the depths of the Cultural Revolution, and things might go a very different direction if Mao finds out that his frequently-purged rival Deng Xiaoping rejected Maoism after his death. It's unlikely for a number of reasons, least of which being Mao will probably have Deng Xiaoping executed, that China's reform period will follow the same route.

Tbh, I can imagine Mao trying even harder in the waning years of his life to stamp out perceived counter-revolutionaries once he's armed with the knowledge of the people who turned against his legacy IOTL. Not to mention he might hesitate to establish relations with the USA. This is the man who sees himself as the founding figure of China's revolution. Once he finds out that his ideology was largely abandoned after his death, he's probably going to take that as a sign that he didn't go far enough with the Cultural Revolution, this has some very bad potential.

I'm not sure uptime US voters are going to be terribly quick to jump in bed with Mao's China either. Uptime elected officials will probably favour detente with the USSR and limited opening of China, possibly one prefaced on the recognition of Taiwan but that is unlikely.

Inroads into the south are possible now only thanks to 50 years of changing demographics and they still haven't cracked that dam. A much whiter, much more racist South is a writeoff.

Click to shrink...

The best-case scenario for Democrats is basically a permanent majority on the West Coast and maybe flipping the Eastern Establishment GOP over to the conservative wing of the Democratic Party. I consider that something of a big if, but you could argue that the Eastern Establishment Republicans will see what happens to their more moderate politics IOTL and decide to go for the party that gives them a better chance of survival.

Politically, this comes at a pretty awkward time in Democratic politics where the GOP had consolidated enormous voting blocs that repeatedly delivered them presidential election wins.

For as big of a deal as Nixon's Southern Strategy was, he didn't do anything that wasn't already going on. Certain big-name Dixiecrats like Strom Thurmond had already become Republicans.

The South is going to be a Republican stronghold ITTL as it was IOTL. 1968 was already well into the trend of former Dixiecrats joining the GOP.

 

[AYC]

The Hoover dam was not included in the California ISOT, though by its rules it would be included if Nevada were on the list of states. You're thinking of the Parker dam [and in general any dams/bridges across the Colorado river on the California/Arizona border].

Regardless, both dams already existed by 1968, so there's no real need to specify their fates other than perhaps "there aren't any weird fault lines created in structures straddling the border that existed in both times"

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Sorry, my bad. I'll remove it from the OP.

 

[the atom]

The deep south got swept by Wallace OTL, and the west coast was won completely by Nixon (who might've poofed out of existence).

The GOP has been caught completely off balance here and I don't think there's a way for them to recover for the foreseeable future.

 

[jenalysis]

The best-case scenario for Democrats is basically a permanent majority on the West Coast and maybe flipping the Eastern Establishment GOP over to the conservative wing of the Democratic Party. I consider that something of a big if, but you could argue that the Eastern Establishment Republicans will see what happens to their more moderate politics IOTL and decide to go for the party that gives them a better chance of survival.

Politically, this comes at a pretty awkward time in Democratic politics where the GOP had consolidated enormous voting blocs that repeatedly delivered them presidential election wins.

For as big of a deal as Nixon's Southern Strategy was, he didn't do anything that wasn't already going on. Certain big-name Dixiecrats like Strom Thurmond had already become Republicans.

The South is going to be a Republican stronghold ITTL as it was IOTL. 1968 was already well into the trend of former Dixiecrats joining the GOP.

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Would the increased population of the West Coast adjust that calculus some , since those states will have higher numbers of EVs? CA had 45 EVs in 1970 OTL. If CA's population gets counted in 1970 as 2021 CA, it would probably have 75-80 EVs. OR would probably be at 9 instead of 6, and WA at 12 instead of 9.

A block of 100 EVs is significiant

 

[Nyvis]

Cutting down the USSR and China are mutually-irreconcilable goals: the US can't oppose China and the USSR. It has to pick one or the other, something which the Sino-Soviet Split, which is at its most extreme and dangerous extent in this period, makes extremely easy. Not to mention, this is 1968, China is in the depths of the Cultural Revolution, and things might go a very different direction if Mao finds out that his frequently-purged rival Deng Xiaoping rejected Maoism after his death. It's unlikely for a number of reasons, least of which being Mao will probably have Deng Xiaoping executed, that China's reform period will follow the same route.

Tbh, I can imagine Mao trying even harder in the waning years of his life to stamp out perceived counter-revolutionaries once he's armed with the knowledge of the people who turned against his legacy IOTL. Not to mention he might hesitate to establish relations with the USA. This is the man who sees himself as the founding figure of China's revolution. Once he finds out that his ideology was largely abandoned after his death, he's probably going to take that as a sign that he didn't go far enough with the Cultural Revolution, this has some very bad potential.

I'm not sure uptime US voters are going to be terribly quick to jump in bed with Mao's China either. Uptime elected officials will probably favour detente with the USSR and limited opening of China, possibly one prefaced on the recognition of Taiwan but that is unlikely.

Click to shrink...

An interesting scenario would be a reverse split: detente and gradual opening up with the USSR with the knowledge it's a paper tiger and its fall helped nothing, while ramping up the pressure on China, which is going to be extra murderous considering how devastated it was after all the wars and how much help it needs.

 

[the atom]

Would the increased population of the West Coast adjust that calculus some , since those states will have higher numbers of EVs? CA had 45 EVs in 1970 OTL. If CA's population gets counted in 1970 as 2021 CA, it would probably have 75-80 EVs. OR would probably be at 9 instead of 6, and WA at 12 instead of 9.

A block of 100 EVs is significiant

Click to shrink...

California is underrepresented as is. There's a good chance they could negotiate for MORE reps and EVs than they have now.

 

[Madam Carstein]

An interesting scenario would be a reverse split: detente and gradual opening up with the USSR with the knowledge it's a paper tiger and its fall helped nothing, while ramping up the pressure on China, which is going to be extra murderous considering how devastated it was after all the wars and how much help it needs.

Click to shrink...

Just to clarify, your speculation is that the USA in this altered world would favour detente and gradual de-escalation and eventual normalisation with the USSR while China which might well descend into a new wave of purges and internal violence in the waning years of Mao's life, would be isolated by comparison?

Yeah, I think that's possible. IOTL 1968 was the eve of the Detente period and the Soviet leadership had the political will for it at the time.

Though tbh, I wonder about the consequences of Mao finding out about China's IOTL history. The Cultural Revolution IOTL brought the PRC to the brink of collapse in many respects. It completely killed off Maoism as a popular or politically-viable ideology in China (and by extension much of the world because China was no longer bankrolling Maoist political movements throughout the developing world). In many ways, it's amazing that Deng and his allies managed to actually hold things together to the extent that they did.

But in a world where Mao finds out about China's future under Deng... I'd imagine that Mao would almost certainly attempt to unleash another wave of violence within the party, he's going to see Deng as the next Liu Shaoqi and he's probably going to conclude that repeatedly purging Deng was insufficient IOTL and will instead treat him more severely. Mao actually did not tend to execute his political rivals a la Stalin but rather engineered their humiliation and fall from power. That said... news of how things turned out... may cause Mao to reconsider his past tactics.

The form this will take is... interesting.

By late 1968, the Red Guards were actually no longer much of a factor and had been rather thoroughly suppressed by the People's Liberation Army. At this point, the major up-and-coming figure was Lin Biao: the commander of the PLA. IOTL he had a falling-out with Mao and in 1971 died in a plane crash that to this day remains hotly disputed and uncertain among historians.

But in 1968, Lin Biao is an extremely prominent man who will become Mao's officially designated successor the following year. How Mao will react to news of Lin Biao's eventual falling-out with him IOTL is... hard to say. Maybe he'll think he can do things differently, or maybe he'll take steps to make sure that Lin Biao and the PLA don't have too much power.

Regardless, China will probably continue on a fairly extremely radical path with continuing purges of Mao's enemies, probably presided over by the PLA in some form, whether under Lin Biao's leadership or that of someone else.

 

[Robolo42]

Would Elon Musk and Tesla Not also be included in the ISOT? If so that would put electronic advancements and implementation on a high list.
EDIT: Tesla AND SpaceX plus his other companies.
Let's not only beat them in the space race, Lets just start blasting

 

[HaydenS222]

Would Elon Musk and Tesla Not also be included in the ISOT? If so that would put electronic advancements and implementation on a high list.
EDIT: Tesla AND SpaceX plus his other companies.
Let's not only beat them in the space race, Lets just start blasting

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They should be but I believe none of Tesla's battery manufacturing was brought along so they're probably pretty screwed. As for space, it actually probably sets the US back a bit. This ISOT removes a lot of the Saturn V manufacturing and the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy are not even close to a match for it. Especially beyond LEO. In the long run it may help with space stuff, especially since much of Blue Origin comes along as well, but I suspect that the moon landings are going to be delayed a while unless the Saturn V stages necessary for the missions are already in Florida. On the other hand the N1 is still most likely going to fail so there's no rush.

 

[Robolo42]

They should be but I believe none of Tesla's battery manufacturing was brought along so they're probably pretty screwed.....

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I would actually say that the technology behind the falcons are preserved and the battery manufacturing prob gone but they still have a factory. They just need to set up a new area for the manufacturing and supply. Hard work and money money, but their are a lot of prospective buyers in the US, a little costly for the current economy but still. The Saturns are delayed maybe but at the cost of better tech probably. TBH tho lol
Who knows, the us is a massive oil based area, this could be the shift.

 

[Nyvis]

Just to clarify, your speculation is that the USA in this altered world would favour detente and gradual de-escalation and eventual normalisation with the USSR while China which might well descend into a new wave of purges and internal violence in the waning years of Mao's life, would be isolated by comparison?

Click to shrink...

I think the US would try to isolate the PRC as obviously the bigger long term threat considering how it went OTL because it really hates competition, while history proves the USSR is a paper tiger. So even if reformist forces win over Mao (he's not the only one who can benefit from advance knowledge), they probably won't get the breaks the US gave them OTL.

 

[jenalysis]

I wonder if Israel would get hurt a bit by this. The US isn't superfond of Israel at this time, and the uptimers know what's coming down the road. I could see the US putting some guarantees on Palestianian land, or not backing Israel as strongly as they did OTL.

That said, fracking technology and clean energy might be useful to take away the effects of the upcoming oil embargo.

 

[Madam Carstein]

I think the US would try to isolate the PRC as obviously the bigger long term threat considering how it went OTL because it really hates competition, while history proves the USSR is a paper tiger. So even if reformist forces win over Mao (he's not the only one who can benefit from advance knowledge), they probably won't get the breaks the US gave them OTL.

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The thing is though, Mao has pretty absolute control of China by 1969, the Cultural Revolution is technically still ongoing but its most brutal phase has already happened and Mao's biggest enemies in the party, namely Liu Shaoqi, have already been suppressed.

What this means in a totalitarian state that controls information is that it's going to be very hard to access outside information. Knowledge of outside events, such as the sudden appearance of a future part of the USA and the uptime knowledge it brings are going to be carefully controlled, if they're released to the Chinese populace at all. Mao is going to be very careful about controlling who gets what information. And in 1968, he's in a very good position to do so.

 

[Nyvis]

The thing is though, Mao has pretty absolute control of China by 1969, the Cultural Revolution is technically still ongoing but its most brutal phase has already happened and Mao's biggest enemies in the party, namely Liu Shaoqi, have already been suppressed.

What this means in a totalitarian state that controls information is that it's going to be very hard to access outside information. Knowledge of outside events, such as the sudden appearance of a future part of the USA and the uptime knowledge it brings are going to be carefully controlled, if they're released to the Chinese populace at all. Mao is going to be very careful about controlling who gets what information. And in 1968, he's in a very good position to do so.

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Mao is unlikely to be the first person informed. It'll be a random Chinese intelligence worker, in all likelihood. A lot of the party will end up knowing about it. I think you also wildly overestimate the control China has over its own territory and population. Even to this day, the PRC still struggle with its local governments. Mao may have been in a good position in the party, but that doesn't mean he can control people's thoughts or the spread of information through well connected people.

 

[Madam Carstein]

Mao is unlikely to be the first person informed. It'll be a random Chinese intelligence worker, in all likelihood. A lot of the party will end up knowing about it. I think you also wildly overestimate the control China has over its own territory and population. Even to this day, the PRC still struggle with its local governments. Mao may have been in a good position in the party, but that doesn't mean he can control people's thoughts or the spread of information through well connected people.

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The isolation and ideological fervour of China during the Cultural Revolution really doesn't comapre to the modern PRC which has decentralised a considerable amount of power. This was actually one of the big changes made during the Reform Era.

In totalitarian states like Mao's China, information is controlled to a degree that's almost inconceivable. But beyond that, even if someone was actually in possession of knowledge about Mao's OTL history and started causing trouble well... that's starting to sound like the talk of capitalist roaders and class enemies, isn't it? The other aspect that comes into play here isn't just controlling information, but also simply inventing it. Mao is the Great Helmsman steering the world's premier revolutionary nation. His cult of personality is so extreme and so cemented at this point that it rivals that of Kim Il-Sung.

We're talking about the apex of Mao's hold over the PRC. This was the time in history when Mao's opposition was completely defanged and people just waited around for him to die.

If you want a time in history where Mao could probably have been toppled from power, the period after the Great Leap Forward but before the Cultural Revolution where Mao was widely criticised and in semi-retirement from politics is probably the best bet.

But at this point we've honestly exhausted the subject and should probably stick a fork in it.

 

[AYC]

Let's talk about some cultural effects of the ISOT. Here's a fun one to chew on: the hippie movement now has access to a west coast with legal (and very potent) weed and agricultural technology that allows for a self-sustaining lifestyle. That's going to give them a huge boost.

 

[Zap Rowsdower]

Nixon and Reagan both may well have gotten ISOT'd here. Theres talk about the downtime GOP doing a Southern Strategy, but under whose leadership? The biggest names left in their party are Rockefeller Republicans, such as, well, Rockefeller.

 

[AYC]

Nixon and Reagan both may well have gotten ISOT'd here. Theres talk about the downtime GOP doing a Southern Strategy, but under whose leadership? The biggest names left in their party are Rockefeller Republicans, such as, well, Rockefeller.

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Reagan yes, Nixon maybe not since he wasn't on the ballot in California. I'd need to research his whereabouts.