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WI: 2020 Pacific US + British Columbia ISOTed to 1968

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Nixon wasn't on the ballot for the California primary so I'm not sure he'd be there. The real big thing would be stopping RFK's assassination.
 
On a different note, how are seats in the Canadian parliament distributed? I recall some people talking about how BC is underrepresented currently. Would it be more so under 1968 rules? Especially with its population being more than doubled.
 
jenalysis said:
I don't see the pacific states seceding, they'll push for faster reform, and implement it in their own states. They'll also have the foresight to know what the Republicans become, and can probably prevent such a thing, and Reagan is butterflied away.
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Between Wallace eating their lunch in the south and the west coast delivering a crushing PV/EC victory to the Democrats I can't see the GOP as it existed at the time surviving for much longer.

Nixon probably doesn't matter anymore. Not as a candidate anyway.
HaydenS222 said:
On a different note, how are seats in the Canadian parliament distributed? I recall some people talking about how BC is underrepresented currently. Would it be more so under 1968 rules? Especially with its population being more than doubled.
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Trudeau was very into the idea of centralizing the country and Horgan would be as big if not more of a pain in the ass than Lougheed, so my guess is he'd delay redistricting for as long as humanely possible.

My guess is it'd become an NDP stronghold in the long term though.
 
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the atom said:
Between Wallace eating their lunch in the south and the west coast delivering a crushing PV/EC victory to the Democrats I can't see the GOP as it existed at the time surviving for much longer.
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The idea of having California in the downtime elections is completely absurd. It's already rediculously underrepresented and in downtime USA it would be even more so. Neither California or downtime USA would let them act 'normally', and the modern Democrats are nothing like the downtime Democrats anyway.
 
Cloak&Dagger said:
The idea of having California in the downtime elections is completely absurd. It's already rediculously underrepresented and in downtime USA it would be even more so. Neither California or downtime USA would let them act 'normally', and the modern Democrats are nothing like the downtime Democrats anyway.
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It could work. LBJ would do everything in his power to get the west coast as much representation as possible because it would give Democrats a massive advantage. Because RFK is likely to not be assassinated he has a pretty good chance of getting the nomination. Especially if he can get the uptime states behind him. RFK ran a pretty progressive campaign, even for modern dems. His platform included racial equality, increased welfare, ending involvement in the Vietnam war, increased gun control, and ending the death penalty among others. Add an uptime dem (maybe Inslee or someone like him) and you have a ticket that most uptime voters like or at least have no problem with.
 
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HaydenS222 said:
It could work. LBJ would do everything in his power to get the west coast as much representation as possible because it would give Democrats a massive advantage. Because RFK is likely to not be assassinated he has a pretty good chance of getting the nomination. Especially if he can get the uptime states behind him. RFK ran a pretty progressive campaign, even for modern dems. His platform included racial equality, increased welfare, ending involvement in the Vietnam war, increased gun control, and ending the death penalty among others. Add an uptime dem (maybe Inslee or someone like him) and you have a ticket that most uptime voters like or at least have no problem with.
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Unless the 'agreement' with downtime USA involves Californian troops marching in Dixie training a universaly conscripted army of blacks, I doubt there's any treaty that could be signed that would be worth the paper it's written on. Downtime US will be looking to oppress the minorities the nanosecond they get the opportunity, and with California disenfranchised they'll even keep their electoral advantage.
 
Cloak&Dagger said:
Unless the 'agreement' with downtime USA involves Californian troops marching in Dixie training a universaly conscripted army of blacks, I doubt there's any treaty that could be signed that would be worth the paper it's written on. Downtime US will be looking to oppress the minorities the nanosecond they get the opportunity, and with California disenfranchised they'll even keep their electoral advantage.
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Why would LBJ, the current president, want to oppress minorities or disenfranchise the uptime states? Minorities are an important part of the dem's coalition, with them voting consistently over 80% for them. All the major presidential candidates supported civil rights or even going even further. None wanted to roll civil rights back.

As for the west coast, why would LBJ and the dems want to disenfranchise it? The west coast is a godsend for them. It could allow them to completely dominate electorally. The Republicans would be losing a very electorally valuable area and the dems could gain an even more electorally valuable one. LBJ and the dems would not only do everything in their power to make sure the west coast can vote, but vote and be represented at their actual population level.
 
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They might actually get better levels of representation than they do now because why not stack the deck while you can?
 
Do we know RFK's itinerary for June 1968? With the California Primary in just four days, isn't it likely that both he and McCarthy, and perhaps even Humphrey, were in California campaigning? And didn't Richard Nixon actually live there? Is there a possibility that all the major political candidates for president were ISOTed away?

Also, I don't see the uptime states doing anything other than doing their very best to reform the downtime USA. Esp. since the decision will be made by politicians and not popular opinion. I can't see Newsom leading a modern day succession movement. Also, weren't most of the uptime US Senator and Reps. in Washington, and ISOTed away as well? I suppose that would be easy to check out, though a bit tiresome for the whole slate of them...
 
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HaydenS222 said:
Why would LBJ, the current president, want to oppress minorities or disenfranchise the uptime states? Minorities are an important part of the dem's coalition, with them voting consistently over 80% for them. All the major presidential candidates supported civil rights or even going even further. None wanted to roll civil rights back.

As for the west coast, why would LBJ and the dems want to disenfranchise it? The west coast is a godsend for them. It could allow them to completely dominate electorally. The Republicans would be losing a very electorally valuable area and the dems could gain an even more electorally valuable one. LBJ and the dems would not only do everything in their power to make sure the west coast can vote, but vote and be represented at their actual population level.
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Because Northern support will evaporate when people say, "Wait, you mean minorities ACTUALLY get to be equal? I thought we were just going to spend less money on beating them!"

Why would California want to be ruled by some backwards maniac that can't go a day without whipping out his dick in public, or who fakes attacks to justify foreign wars?

Downtime USA would be completely unwilling to make the electoral and actually-equal-rights sacrifices required to convince California to stay.
 
Well, in that case I do agree that LBJ probably runs again with everything going on. He probably needs to agree to end involvement in the Vietnam war for uptime support though. Probably not impossible given knowledge of how it ends up OTL. Increased racial protections are probably also necessary but shouldn't be too much of an issue. I also suspect he could run on expanding the Great Society program. Perhaps with money saved if the Bietnam war is ended. But this is a cluster regardless. There should be some Republican candidates in California too, so that is also an issue.
 
Cloak&Dagger said:
Because Northern support will evaporate when people say, "Wait, you mean minorities ACTUALLY get to be equal? I thought we were just going to spend less money on beating them!"

Why would California want to be ruled by some backwards maniac that can't go a day without whipping out his dick in public, or who fakes attacks to justify foreign wars?

Downtime USA would be completely unwilling to make the electoral and actually-equal-rights sacrifices required to convince California to stay.
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Californians don't actually prioritize minority rights anywhere near to the extent you think they do.

Like you know that the LAPD are also in California right?
 
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The most likely scenario is the downtime differences are enshrined in state law, those differences are held to be constitutional.

You probably see a good-sized movement of blacks to the west coast. This will cause tensions with rural CA folk.

Dial-up internet becomes common in the 1970s downtime US as a knock-on from all of this as well, as folks will see how useful uptime internet is. You will see stronger regulation of the internet vs hate speech though, and Fairness doctrine gets enshrined, downtime US will listen to uptime US- they will be horrified at Trump, and the US's slide of the past four years. This might help enshrine some of the New Deal a bit more.

Trump himself will likely not have a good time due to his infamy.
 
HaydenS222 said:
Nor are the downtime United States as opposed to them as they assert.
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If anything, the existence of the West Coast pretty much proves that a better society is possible...while also making it clear there are still a LOT of things to work on. Hence the ISOT occurring during massive protests.

It will be interesting to see how the George Floyd protests evolve and synthesize with the downtime Civil Rights Movement.
 
jenalysis said:
Trump himself will likely not have a good time due to his infamy.
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Oh god, I forgot about this. Trump is 21 years old and will stay as far away from the West Coast as possible.

It would be funny if he ended up becoming revolted with his uptime self and changed into a more well-rounded person, but that seems unlikely.
 
AYC said:
Oh god, I forgot about this. Trump is 21 years old and will stay as far away from the West Coast as possible.

It would be funny if he ended up becoming revolted with his uptime self and changed into a more well-rounded person, but that seems unlikely.
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It wouldn't matter. The stuff about Trump will ruin his reputation. He won't be able to even get started in business, even with his daddy's money. He's going to be a total pariah- except maybe in the Deep South. He might end up being an Alabama real estate magnate or something.

Also, I wonder if the Black Panthers will be a lot more supported and well-funded ITTL?
 
jenalysis said:
It wouldn't matter. The stuff about Trump will ruin his reputation. He won't be able to even get started in business, even with his daddy's money. He's going to be a total pariah- except maybe in the Deep South. He might end up being an Alabama real estate magnate or something.

Also, I wonder if the Black Panthers will be a lot more supported and well-funded ITTL?
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Well the BPP was strongest on the west coast and especially in California, so that would weaken them. A lot of their leadership is gone. But I do think the BPP in the rest of the country would get a fair amount of support. A massive thing would be COINTELPRO coming to light. That puts them in a much more favorable light as victims of illegal suppression and stops and hurts attempts to weaken them. Though technically they were not yet targets in 1968. Stopping COINTELPRO just means stronger left wing groups in general. Its reveal might be enough to take down Hoover, which would be huge.
 
HaydenS222 said:
Stopping COINTELPRO just means stronger left wing groups in general. Its reveal might be enough to take down Hoover, which would be huge.
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There are certain other allegations about Hoover that will take him down, immediately, no matter what.

Doesn't matter if the cross-dressing story isn't true, as soon as it's in the public consciousness (and it will be VERY fast) he loses all credibility.
 
the atom said:
They might actually get better levels of representation than they do now because why not stack the deck while you can?
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I think an underrated change in this timeline would be LBJ seeing how the VRA was weakened to the point of uselessness. going for a second bite at that apple could nip a lot of the problems with conservatives being able to claim victory with a minority in the bud ( though not the electoral college).

Though if they really want to put the screws to it, they'd use this chance to repeal the (at that point maybe bit quite as permanently) apportionment act of 1929.

They'd need to act really quickly to grab power though, since there are still a lot of racist Democrats, and the southern strategy is probably also get a boost from even more reactionary elements
 
On thing that this will definitely do is speed up the reorganization of the parties. It took until really the 90s OTL for most conservatives to leave the dems and most liberals to leave the GOP. With this, the dems are probably moving somewhat to the left and going to be somewhat influenced by the uptime dems. The GOP is going to try and do the southern strategy again, it work pretty well OTL after all. The realignment is going to be done in closer to ten years, rather than the 30 or so it took OTL.
 
HaydenS222 said:
On thing that this will definitely do is speed up the reorganization of the parties. It took until really the 90s OTL for most conservatives to leave the dems and most liberals to leave the GOP. With this, the dems are probably moving somewhat to the left and going to be somewhat influenced by the uptime dems. The GOP is going to try and do the southern strategy again, it work pretty well OTL after all. The realignment is going to be done in closer to ten years, rather than the 30 or so it took OTL.
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The Southern Democrats are in an interesting position. If the West Coast is fully enfranchised, they're powerless to prevent liberals from taking over the Democratic Party. There's a genuine possibility of them forming their own regional third party, sort of like a Bloc Quebecois for the American South. They have the ability to elect significant numbers of candidates from a large region of the country (even with the Voting Rights Act, African-American exodus to the West Coast will shore up their position).
 
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