The Dragon Roars: A KMT Quest

Turn 7.1, Foreign Diplomacy.

[X] [Land Reform]
[X] [Reconstruction]
[X] [Intergration]
[X] [Foreign Diplomacy]
[X] [Lanzhou]




With Open Arms.


"The global powers of this age are baffled... baffled at the mere concept of a great nation not of European origin.
The idea of a united Chinese state shall no doubt horrify them."
- Wu Ting-Fang, Minister of Foreign Affairs.

The Republic, insofar as it is viewed from the outside world, has so far been seen with little of much concern. With the defeat of the Jiachen revolutionaries in 1907, it had been assumed that the Republic would flounder and wither on its own lofty ambitions, built on foundations of sand. Indeed, the continuing internal intrigues of the young republic seemed to have confirmed this to foreign observers, as reports that were sent back to the homelands of the few minor diplomats that were even stationed in Lanzhou were few and far between, almost always contained some form of political scandal or crisis.

That, combined with the orientalist viewpoint of most major nations across the globe, meant that few had truly kept up with the happenings of China beyond the borders of the Xin Han territories, content to focus on the increasingly fragile international situation in Europe instead. What few interest was had in the Far east would be placed on the securely western-aligned cliques under the direction of either the French or Duan Qirui's bastardized confederation. Even the socialist factions of the world paid little heed to the Republic, having far more interest in the revolutionary potential of the volatile situation in Japan with either fear (for the 2nd International) or hope (for the Syndicalists).

The West China War would change that perception slightly, the destruction of the Taiping sending shockwaves through the international order, most especially the French, as they suddenly found themselves with a new neighbor, struggling to adjust to a lesser known entity so close to their prized colonies in the South China Sea. Their standing on the foreign stage was still low from the disastrous Mexican Intervention only a few years prior, and were loathe to suffer another such embarrassment in the near future from another non-European power.



The current Governor-General of the French colonial possessions, Joost van Vollenhoven, would be pressured by the French government to pursue the previous policy of detente with the Chinese powers, now faced with the new problem of the KMT-led Republic just north of Kunming. The newly-appointed governor would, with great reluctance, assent to the request for a French embassy in Lanzhou, officially establishing a French diplomatic presence inside of the Republic and accepted with little pushback. He would, however, further request that the Republicans dispatch a mission to Saigon to negotiate the continuation of the treaty signed with the Taiping only a year or so prior, detailing an agreement for a permanent ceasefire along the Sino-French border on both sides.

Worryingly, the Governor-General would include additional provisions for the forbidding of assistance granted to revolutionary activity within the French colonies in the Far East. NBIS has reported excellent progress in the southern territories, successfully rallying support amongst the local populations in support of Republican, and most importantly anti-colonial opposition to French rule. This has, naturally, formed a worrying sign to the Dutch-born Frenchman, with the usual methods of martial law and army troops proving less and less effective in cowing the local population.

Instead, he would go to the assumed source of the issue.

[] [INDOCHINA] Agree to the Treaty in Full. (Revolutionary Group CANNOT vote for this option)
[] [INDOCHINA] Agree to the Treaty, but Reject the New Provisions.
[] [INDOCHINA] Agree to the Treaty, but Reject the New Provisions in Secret.
[] [INDOCHINA] Reject the Treaty.
(Mainline CANNOT vote for this option)



On the other side of the Southern question would be a request from a group of Vietnamese revolutionaries at the same time, under the leadership of Phan Bội Châu. The Northern-born intellectual would be a new convert to Sun Yat-Sen's republican movement, inspired by the Jiachen Uprising and seeking to emulate it in his own way to forge a path for an independent Vietnam. Phan would request permission to establish a branch of the KMT in Vietnam and the necessary support for such an undertaking, citing the revolutionary potential of the Vietnamese people, especially after the weakening of French power in the aftermath of the disasters in Mexico.

Whilst promising, Song Jiaoren has noted that the Republic can ill-afford to spend such resources on such an adventurist policy, and that it would be wise to put-off such direct support for an organization as put forward by Phan whilst it was still in its infancy, given the history of Vietnamese revolts over the decades of French rule.

[] [VNQPH] Give Phan all that he needs. (Mainline CANNOT vote for this option)
[] [VNQPH] Agree to the formation of the new organization, but withhold resources.
[] [VNQPH] Deny his request.
(Revolutionary Group CANNOT vote for this option)




For the rest of the foreign affairs, there is still much to discuss, most especially as it concerns the establishment of diplomatic missions with the great powers of the world. Access to these great states would be quite beneficial to the Republic, whether in terms of financial, industrial or military aid, reconstruction our battered state in the aftermath of the West China War. Such support could prove vital in helping us rejuvenate our state's meagre resources and improving the prospects of Chinese reunification.

The Republic can provide few resources for its diplomatic corps at this point, however, given the domestic circumstances that it finds itself mired in at this moment. As such, only TWO missions can be afforded enough to establish themselves in sufficient standing to the eyes of the industrial powers of the wider world.

The question, then, becomes of whom do we send our venerable diplomats to?

[] [FOREIGN] The Empire of Germany

The Germans have been our most venerable patrons for years now, having provided the first reliable foreign support for the Republic's ambitions during the initial years of its existence. The growing socialist movement in the Reichstag could prove further useful for our goals, itself sympathetic to our cause to modernize the Chinese nation. Furthermore, fears of a Franco-Russian usurpation and domination of China's lucrative markets could be relied upon to extract beneficial agreements from the mildly paranoid state, surrounded by all sides as it were by enemies and rivals.

[] [FOREIGN] The Second French Empire

The French could be argued as the premiere global power of this century, as the British Empire continues to crumble and give way in the aftermath of the 1904 Revolutions. The carving up of the British colonial empire has brought it ever so closer to the Xin Han, sweeping up formerly British-owned businesses or administrations in the state in an effort to secure the great gains that could be had from exploiting the Chinese region. Negotiations with the French could prove tough, given our noticeable alignment with the Germans in the midst of mutual Franco-German hostility, and our further nationalist rhetoric stressing the colonial governors of the southern Chinese provinces. But, should they succeed, the benefits could be immense.

[] [FOREIGN] The Empire of Japan

Theoretically the most easy to interact with, the Japanese are the most compatible of the great powers for us to negotiate with. Being only just a strait away from each other, should both sides have wished it, a mutually beneficial deal could result from a diplomatic meeting in short order, and with little hassle for both sides. However, recent events have soured opinions for both the Republic and Japan, and the question of the remnants of the Qing monarchy in the Northeast could prove a major obstacle in the negotiations, given their closer relationship with Japan and their unification rhetoric.

[] [FOREIGN] The Empire of Brazil

Brazil would appear as a surprise choice to many, but nonetheless enticing. The continually modernizing state has always sought to establish itself as a preeminent global power, able to stand toe-to-toe with the European hegemons of the last century and establish themselves as yet another of the pantheon of great powers. Negotiations with the Empire could prove interesting, as the Brazilian state seeks new markets that it could possibly capture for itself, and have much to offer in terms of foreign investment and aid should they agree to it. Furthermore, they have little antagonisms with the rest of the world, save for the rival Bogota government.

[] [FOREIGN] The United People's Union of Great Britain and Ireland

There is, of course, the theoretical champion for the cause of anti-imperialism and anti-colonialism. The UPU stands as the brightest torch for socialism in the world, and the recent toppling of the Lord-Protector Hyndman would seem a promising start for the further advancement of the Syndicalist International on the global stage, now rid of the stench of Hyndman's reputation. Negotiations with the UPU would almost certainly be of great success, given their desire to insert a new ally of the SI in the Far East, what with Japan's revolutionary energy seemingly dissipating, to the disappointment of all. However, this would most assuredly throw the imperial powers into a paranoid frenzy regarding the Republic's intentions.

[] [FOREIGN] The Union of American Socialist Republics

Another possible choice for diplomatic detente would be the newly forged UASR, having only recently ended its reactionary rivals in the civil war. The New World behemoth could prove extremely beneficial for our cause, the great industries and economies of the former American states able to assist our rebirth with ease. However, the recent spell of natural disasters, and the reconstruction undergoing the war-torn nation could throw a wrench in negotiations, with Debs' inward-looking government less inclined to support a more aggressive foreign police as a result.


Pick ONE Faction.

[] KMT - Mainline
[] KMT - Revolutionary Group
[] KMT - Independents
[NPC] Republican Party

[] [INDOCHINA] Agree to the Treaty in Full.
[] [FOREIGN] The Empire of Germany.
[] [FOREIGN] The Empire of Brazil.
[NPC] Zhili Republican Front
[] [INDOCHINA] Reject the Treaty.
[] [INDOCHINA] Agree to the Treaty, but Reject the New Provisions in Secret.
[] [FOREIGN] The United People's Union of Great Britain and Ireland.
[] [FOREIGN] The Union of American Socialist Republics.
[NPC] RCA
Abstention.



A/N: A bit of a doozy, all votes must be written in a plan format. You may ask any questions that you have regarding this vote.

48 hour moratorium.
 
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My gut instinct says Germany and the American Republics.

Germany because we already have a relationship, so it's easier to build up on ties that already exist, and also we fucked Russia and I can't think they'll be happy with us once their Revolution finishes. So there's common interests in the "not dying to Russia" department. It's also a bone to the Republicans.

The Socialist Republics primarily is an ideological bone to the ZRF. That said, this is more of a long term investement. Even if the US doesn't give us money and other form of aid now, if we invest in the relationship now while they are rebuilding, we should be able to gain something years down the line. And that's a huge glut of aid there.

Brazil would be a strong contender too, but they'll still be there later.

No to Britain however. We can't afford to have all the Imperial Great Powers mad at us.
 
[] Plan Instringent Internationalism
-[] [INDOCHINA] Reject the Treaty. (Mainline CANNOT vote for this option)
-[] [VNQPH] Give Phan all that he needs. (Mainline CANNOT vote for this option)
-[] [FOREIGN] The United People's Union of Great Britain and Ireland
-[] [FOREIGN] The Union of American Socialist Republics
-[] KMT - Revolutionary Group
 
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Well that was quite interesting things to learn about. Definitely not going to vote to help the French against their colonial problems that's for sure.

So, here's something of a plan that I made. Would like to go for more radical stuff, but I chose the Mainline KMT and am going to stick with that.

[] Plan: We do not plan on becoming imperialist lapdogs
-[] [INDOCHINA] Agree to the Treaty, but Reject the New Provisions in Secret.
-[] [VNQPH] Agree to the formation of the new organization, but withhold resources.
-[] [FOREIGN] The Empire of Germany
-[] [FOREIGN] The Union of American Socialist Republics
-[] KMT - Mainline

Was initially planning on going for Brazil instead of the Germans but the Germans have existing ties and have a mutual goal of not getting invaded by Russia.

We don't need the USA to fight wars for us, just sell us stuff. Which should hopefully be more acceptable to Debs.

Not against the Southern Front being secure but unsure of whether being blunt about about you willingly helping Revolutionaries is a good thing. Leaning on subtlety being good on this front.

Speaking of, positioning ourselves as the local benefactor for the various anti-imperial groups would be to our advantage.
 
At long last, the legendary [Foreign Diplomacy] vote. First things first, rejecting the Indochina treaty is literally impossible with the party whip system and attempting to do so is inevitably just going to cause party fractures. I see no problem with agreeing here and just ignoring the extra provisions in secret though. I don't see why we shouldn't agree to forming a Vietnamese KMT branch as well, though once again the party whip means agreeing to his demands in full is impossible here.

As for who we reach out to, I think Germany is the one big obvious choice here. We already have agreements with them and they have reasons to deny the French their own ambitions in the region. Brazil is a bit of a surprise option here, but would be a neutral state without any previous stake in China or any real international competitors there. Finally there's the UASR who are certainly more palatable ideologically to us, but are busy with their own reconstruction. There's also probably still a Chinese community at Hawaii and the West Coast, but who knows how large or helpful they can be in this timeline.

On balance I'm in favor of this combination, which has already been ninja'd from me.

[] [INDOCHINA] Agree to the Treaty, but Reject the New Provisions in Secret.
[] [VNQPH] Agree to the formation of the new organization, but withhold resources.
[] [FOREIGN] The Empire of Germany
[] [FOREIGN] The Union of American Socialist Republics

EDIT: Though as an actual alternative version of the above, we could try going to Brazil instead of Germany. There is wisdom in not committing too much to a single imperial sponsor here.

[] [INDOCHINA] Agree to the Treaty, but Reject the New Provisions in Secret.
[] [VNQPH] Agree to the formation of the new organization, but withhold resources.
[] [FOREIGN] The Empire of Brazil
[] [FOREIGN] The Union of American Socialist Republics
 
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I understand the idea behind going for Brazil instead of Germany to avoid committing too much. But 1) We haven't committed all that much to Germany anyways. 2)Neither Brazil or the USA will be able to help us with the necessary manpower if Revolutionary Russia goes on the Warpath.

I think if it wasn't for Russia. Brazil and the USA would be pretty good. But with our neighborhood filled with Russian, Xin Han, the Japanese, Qing, and the French, it pays to have a committed relationship with one Imperial Sponsor.
 
I understand the idea behind going for Brazil instead of Germany to avoid committing too much. But 1) We haven't committed all that much to Germany anyways. 2)Neither Brazil or the USA will be able to help us with the necessary manpower if Revolutionary Russia goes on the Warpath.

I think if it wasn't for Russia. Brazil and the USA would be pretty good. But with our neighborhood filled with Russian, Xin Han, the Japanese, Qing, and the French, it pays to have a committed relationship with one Imperial Sponsor.
We've already pre-committed 50% of our exports to Germany and their empire, however much that currently is. That was their price for their aid, presumably for the hopes of massive future gains. I'm not too sure how much they would care about Russia in the context of China right now too, given the active revolution in Russia happening right now with the aid of UPU marines. Their biggest concern in China would primarily be the French.
 
We've already pre-committed 50% of our exports to Germany and their empire, however much that currently is. That was their price for their aid, presumably for the hopes of massive future gains. I'm not too sure how much they would care about Russia in the context of China right now too, given the active revolution in Russia happening right now with the aid of UPU marines. Their biggest concern in China would primarily be the French.
If the big Question Mark is Russia and how much Germany cares for Russia, it's probably better to gain that information from talking to Germany.

An committement of our exports back then is not the same as right now, we have more to offer Germany now. So we can afford to also ask more from them. I'm all for ratfucking people when it suits our needs, but currently we are better off clinging to Germany as part of our foundation building, and once we are stronger shop for better opportunities.
 
Germany has been a consistent if minor ally over the course of most of this quest. We're their only Asian ally at the moment and have borders with their rivals so they have a vested interest in propping us up. They're basically us but European in how surrounded they are. German industry and army experience are also great to have. If we build up our relations enough, perhaps they'll even be amenable to starting a dialogue over Shangdong. Going to war with them over it isn't really in the cards with the Xin Han on our plate.

The Americans are good just for that massive industry they have and will continue to grow. Providing them with a market for American goods during their reconstruction will be a great boon for us, and they'll like us for it later. Eventually, they're going to have a bone to pick with Japan after that humiliating treaty the USA got roped into. They could be a consistent ally for us.

Japan is too flaky and the Qing complicate any relations with them. The French while strong also have vast Chinese colonies they're loath to give up. The UPU is on the Great Powers watchlist. Brazil would be a good alternative but I feel like they're going to just mostly be an inoffensive commercial partner for the most part.

[] Plan Revolutionary Pragmatism
-[] [INDOCHINA] Agree to the Treaty, but Reject the New Provisions in Secret.
-[] [VNQPH] Agree to the formation of the new organization, but withhold resources.
-[] [FOREIGN] The Empire of Germany
-[] [FOREIGN] The Union of American Socialist Republics
-[] KMT - Revolutionary Group

-[] [FOREIGN] The Empire of Japan

Revolutionary version of @Fireiy 's plan. I don't mind Phan forming a Vietnamese KMT but practically we can't help them. Any material support we'd have to smuggle through the French border. He's got to show us some results first before we piss of the French.

Edit: I am considering replacing the UASR with Japan for reasons outlined in my next post.
 
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I think Japan is the most important party to establish ties with. It's easier to do, we both have great anxieties about each other and sheer proximity makes our cooperation more impactful and important. Plus if peaceful relations are left out in the cold, I think that will make it substantially more likely for the militarists to take back over over there. America has got a lot to deal with and can disengage at any time, but we've got to ensure we can live with the neighbors we have basically.

If we're going against accepting the French treaty in full though, I think we should support revolutionary groups all the way. If we reject the secret treaty provisions we're still likely going to be blamed by them for encouraging anything that happens anyway, and if we haven't provided active support no one emerging from that will be inclined to be loyal to us. As it is there is a great swell of opinion for us in French territories and it's indicated that they are having difficulty controlling the people… lean into that. If we keep their hands full in their own territories then they can't easily spare the resources to go further and greater conquests look less digestible. If we play nicely and help them crush the people who believe in us however I think that will necessarily strengthen their hand and weaken our own.
 
Regarding Germany, I think them having Shandong under the Dogmeat General means that they have options as to which states to support in the Chinese Thunderdome. Although it is still Shandong under the Dogmeat General so the Republic may be more appealing partner, although I don't think that it's to the degree they will give Shandong to us.

While it is true that we will need to send diplomats to Japan soonTM the fact that they have a side that they have chosen, The Qing, and were willing to throw the Taiping at the Republic makes me hesitant. The UASR's thing is that it just left a civil war and therefore don't want adventures at the moment, but they are not going to be in reconstruction mode forever. So it's somewhat of a long-term thing.

As much as I want to send the Vietnamese KMT resources, that isn't an option for the KMT-Mainline. Besides the fact that we haven't provided active support doesn't mean that the fact that we are sheltering them in our territory and giving a place where they wouldn't get hunted by the French would be forgotten.
 

You know you bring up a good point about Japan. Given their UK leanings a situation could develop where they support or even seek alliance with the Xin Han against us. It would really suck if the Xin Han get UK and Japanese support. We know they're going to be interventionist so it would be better if their intervention works out in our favor. The Americans while eventually will be a great ally for us are isolationist. We don't know how far that isolation will go. Fighting another two front war with the Japanese and Qing on one side and the Xin Han on the other would be a nightmare.

Approaching Japan might help us deal with the whole Qing Emperor under house arrest situation that we have. Using that chip asap is best in my opinion. The longer we wait the more time Zhang Zhuolin and Wu Peifu get to solidify their powerbase, and the earliest we can do that barring a mission from the Qing is next year if we take internal diplomacy.

As much as I want to send the Vietnamese KMT resources, that isn't an option for the KMT-Mainline. Besides the fact that we haven't provided active support doesn't mean that the fact that we are sheltering them in our territory and giving a place where they wouldn't get hunted by the French would be forgotten.

In addition to the French deal, it's really a question of walking the knife's edge of plausible deniability. We don't have the resources to fund an insurgency right now pending our own reconstruction and integration of provinces, but we also don't want to let go of that chip either. The French won't be in the mood for any colonial adventures with tensions in Europe as it is right now but they could eventually depending on how the situation develops.

Our main goal this turn is making sure the Xin Han don't get more support than they already do from the Canadians. I'm convinced approaching Japan would help majorly in that. We also need to mollify the French enough that they feel they don't have to start supporting the Xin Han too to keep their unrest in check while also covertly supporting that unrest.
 
Welp, the party whip has essentially narrowed our options on French colonial govt's demands & Vietnam's call for aid.

On the matter of allies, I'm in favor of continuing relations with Germany for now while also investing in the future by starting relations with UASR.

My hope in the future is actually to foster good neighborly relations with a victorious Revolutionary Russia that is amenable to at least commercial relations - that would be a great. Optimally if we could cultivate good relations with them, we could leverage their need for a secure southeastern border. We could agree to them supporting the birth of syndia/socialist Mongolia, giving Russia peace of mind for that part of their southeastern border, in exchange for using our potential good relations to convince Revolutionary Russia into allowing us to annex Mongolian Xinjiang.

Neither Brazil or the USA will be able to help us with the necessary manpower if Revolutionary Russia goes on the Warpath.
I don't see this tbh because they'd more likely look for commercial partners to boost their likely economic developmentalism & secure safe southern border. We also don't have anything they'd prefer to claim (those areas are under the Qing rn). It also doesn't make sense for the particular Tsarist geopolitical grievances about us over the 2nd Russo-Japanese to carry over to syndie/socialist Russia.

But if the *White*, fascist forces win...things get complicated for us (and everyone bordering em).
 
Regarding Germany, I think them having Shandong under the Dogmeat General means that they have options as to which states to support in the Chinese Thunderdome. Although it is still Shandong under the Dogmeat General so the Republic may be more appealing partner, although I don't think that it's to the degree they will give Shandong to us.
If we can get them to make Mr. Dogmeat and his German trained army join an alliance with us, that would be amazing. That's the other advantage of approaching Germany, increasing German investment in our country means they're more likely to make their puppet do things to help us. Don't know about the chances for that, but it's worth it. Shangdong is pretty beefy for a minor Chinese power actually.

But if the *White*, fascist forces win...things get complicated for us (and everyone bordering em).
The Russian Thunderdome is a real question mark for us. I would like it to develop our way but given the past updates, I'm keeping my suspicions up.

Putting all this voting discussion on a sidetable, I would highly suggest we take internal diplomacy next turn. We have a couple of pending issues to resolve, the Qing being one of them but also relations with the UF warlords as well as establishing diplomatic relations with Mongolia.

An issue I've seen over the past of this quest was we prioritized developmental actions over diplomatic ones. Not without reason mind you, the ROC was in rough shape, but it certainly didn't help when we went to war with Japan and then the Taiping after. I would like to have clear diplomatic lines drawn so we don't get blindsided again.
 
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I think Japan is the most important party to establish ties with. It's easier to do, we both have great anxieties about each other and sheer proximity makes our cooperation more impactful and important. Plus if peaceful relations are left out in the cold, I think that will make it substantially more likely for the militarists to take back over over there. America has got a lot to deal with and can disengage at any time, but we've got to ensure we can live with the neighbors we have basically.

If we're going against accepting the French treaty in full though, I think we should support revolutionary groups all the way. If we reject the secret treaty provisions we're still likely going to be blamed by them for encouraging anything that happens anyway, and if we haven't provided active support no one emerging from that will be inclined to be loyal to us. As it is there is a great swell of opinion for us in French territories and it's indicated that they are having difficulty controlling the people… lean into that. If we keep their hands full in their own territories then they can't easily spare the resources to go further and greater conquests look less digestible. If we play nicely and help them crush the people who believe in us however I think that will necessarily strengthen their hand and weaken our own.
You know you bring up a good point about Japan. Given their UK leanings a situation could develop where they support or even seek alliance with the Xin Han against us. It would really suck if the Xin Han get UK and Japanese support. We know they're going to be interventionist so it would be better if their intervention works out in our favor. The Americans while eventually will be a great ally for us are isolationist. We don't know how far that isolation will go. Fighting another two front war with the Japanese and Qing on one side and the Xin Han on the other would be a nightmare.

Approaching Japan might help us deal with the whole Qing Emperor under house arrest situation that we have. Using that chip asap is best in my opinion. The longer we wait the more time Zhang Zhuolin and Wu Peifu get to solidify their powerbase, and the earliest we can do that barring a mission from the Qing is next year if we take internal diplomacy.



In addition to the French deal, it's really a question of walking the knife's edge of plausible deniability. We don't have the resources to fund an insurgency right now pending our own reconstruction and integration of provinces, but we also don't want to let go of that chip either. The French won't be in the mood for any colonial adventures with tensions in Europe as it is right now but they could eventually depending on how the situation develops.

Our main goal this turn is making sure the Xin Han don't get more support than they already do from the Canadians. I'm convinced approaching Japan would help majorly in that. We also need to mollify the French enough that they feel they don't have to start supporting the Xin Han too to keep their unrest in check while also covertly supporting that unrest.
I had actually considered a 2nd Foreign Policy Strategy. But considered it a bit too bold and risky for comfort.

It's called "Fuck Xin Han"

Establish Relationships with both Japan and the French. Japan is useful for the reasons you both talked about. The French I considered because as we all know, there is no French Government in existence that will pass off the chance to fuck with British interests, so Xin Han is in the crosshairs.

In this setup both Japan and the French would have reason to worry about Xin Han, which is by fair the most powerful of the contending Chinese States and directly contests them in East Asia. Japan because Xin Han is better positioned to eat the Qing and gain control of the South China Sea to their detriment, and the French because I can't imagine it'd be hard for Xin Han to smash open the French South and Indochina colonies.

The risky part is of course, alienating the Germans and the Revolution being deadset on planting the seeds of screwing over the French in South China. But it's not a bad plan.

But yes, if we had to something like Japan-Germany or Japan-US, they would strong contenders.
 
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Another thing to note. Discord reminded me that the French wouldn't exactly be pleased if they found out that we were breaking the additional provisions they want. They may buff up Xin Han or send a punitive expedition, or both. Which brings up the question of if the benefits of the French not suspecting us of sheltering Vietnamese Revolutionaries is worth the risk of them doing something negative towards us. Or whether just telling the French that we do not accept the Provisions in their face be a better option than hiding the fact that we don't want the additional stuff.
 
Another thing to note. Discord reminded me that the French wouldn't exactly be pleased if they found out that we were breaking the additional provisions they want. They may buff up Xin Han or send a punitive expedition, or both. Which brings up the question of if the benefits of the French not suspecting us of sheltering Vietnamese Revolutionaries is worth the risk of them doing something negative towards us. Or whether just telling the French that we do not accept the Provisions in their face be a better option than hiding the fact that we don't want the additional stuff.
It's not a question of if we piss the French off but when. I'm assuming we're going to support insurgents no matter what. Question is, would us allowing Phan to establish the Vietnamese KMT be public knowledge? Can we maintain plausible deniability?

Our spy network will do their job of maintaining revolutionary fervor in the French colonies. We'll most likely have to delay active support until we knock the Xin Han down a peg or two. I'm not worried about honoring the agreement at least to the letter but not spirit for now.
 
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Unfortunately Japan already has the Qing to back, and they're much more lucrative partner for them than say Shandong is for Germany. Imperial Japan, alongside France, also has far greater incentives to keep China divided (UPU, Brazil, & UASR would likely prefer the opposite). Moreover, a post-rebuild UASR will be a far more valuable partner than Japan could ever hope to be.

I could be convinced for Japan-UASR combo if you folks could convince me that damage control with Japan wrt the Qing issue is more immediately pressing than further improving relations with Germany tho. That's more preferable to me than Japan-Germany because of the sheer potential UASR has as a friend.
 
"France Agrees to Guangdong Handover to Xin Han ; Chinese Business Owners Cheer New Economic Opportunities."
Thought this was relevant to point out again from the last world news update. The Xin Han are already in talks with the French about Guangdong. If I'm reading this correctly that only leaves them with Yunnan in their hands eventually. Make of that what you will.

Unfortunately Japan already has the Qing to back, and they're much more lucrative partner for them than say Shandong is for Germany. Imperial Japan, alongside France, also has far greater incentives to keep China divided (UPU, Brazil, & UASR would likely prefer the opposite). Moreover, a post-rebuild UASR will be a far more valuable partner than Japan could ever hope to be.

I could be convinced for Japan-UASR combo if you folks could convince me that damage control with Japan wrt the Qing issue is more immediately pressing than further improving relations with Germany tho. That's more preferable to me than Japan-Germany because of the sheer potential UASR has as a friend.

The thing about Japan is we know they're going to want a victory abroad soon. Their government and people really need the win. Whether that's through us or someone else is anyone's guess. Picking Japan helps dissuade them from that.

For the UASR, we don't know how long their isolationism will extend. They're a good ally for sure but aside from being a good economic partner now we don't know if they'd be a good military ally in the near future. Someone will need to piss them off first.

The way I see the different votes is this,

UASR-Germany for strong economic partners and future allies.
UASR-Japan for a long term ally and a detente in a possible rival, with a low chance for a possible ally.
Germany-Japan is the same idea, less powerful due to the distances involved. Might lead to something with Shandong and the Dogmeat General that will help us more directly though.
The "Fuck Xin Han" alliance by @Deadly Snark for a mad diplomatic gamble at taking down the Xin Han.

UASR-Germany to me is the safe bet for getting the most support and building up the Republic in the long term, UASR-Japan is more risky but might help us with our strategic situation when war breaks out again.
 
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I don't think the "Help the Vietnamese organize their KMT" thing would be public because I don't find it plausible that we would violate Treaty Provisions that blatantly. It is the question of whether or not the KMT and the Vietnamese can keep this operation in enough secrecy that when the French find out they cannot retaliate in any meaningful way or better yet, they don't find out about our assistance at all, as unlikely as the latter option seems to me.

The UASR-Japan option does bring up the question of where would the UASR focus their attention when they are done in their reconstruction. Because they could feasibly try for a Pacific focused foreign policy that would anger Japan, as well as trying to enforce the Monroe Doctrine and try to kick the European Imperialists out of the Americas.
 
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Establishing diplomatic relations with UASR specifically in this turn... I don't even know.

We are two war-torn countries in the reconstruction phase. We have nothing to offer America, we have little industry and our only achievement is that we did not manage to die of hunger. I'm not sure about the exact state of affairs in the UASR, but the isolationist course raises concerns. They may simply decide that spoiling relations with Japan and Russia in order to support us is not worth it.

Don't get me wrong, America is a good option, but it's a long game with an unstable new state.

I'm more attracted to Brazil. Their main advantage is that they don't care about Asia. Brazil provides not only supplies to the civilian industry, but also to the military. If the UASR may be afraid to send us artillery or planes, then Brazil will simply ask how much we will pay for it.
More weapons mean more opportunities to support our supporters in the Chinese states. Also, the fact that they did not participate in the civil war means that they simply have more free money at the moment.

Germany-Brazil would be ideal if Zhili supported at least one of these states.

From my point of view, choosing Germany-UASR can only be done to support the policy of centrism.
 
We don't exactly have nothing to offer to America, we have resources that we can sell to them and can serve as a market for their goods, which aren't nothing. And the fact that both countries are undergoing reconstruction doesn't mean that they will always be in reconstruction or that reconstruction will take a long time. Also remembered that Japan also stole Guam from America, so the UASR having a fond opinion of the Japanese is something I view as unlikely. Russia however is a question mark with the place currently experiencing a Revolution so who knows how that would turn out.

I do see the appeal of Brazil, with them not being involved in politics that would be to our detriment, at least as of currently. And the Brazilians being willing to sell us Military Equipment where the Americans likely would just sell us Civilian stuff. But I feel that the niche of "Being willing to sell us Military Equipment" could be filled by the Germans and the UASR can serve as a long-term ally with an industrial base that would be of great benefit to the Republic.
 
But I feel that the niche of "Being willing to sell us Military Equipment" could be filled by the Germans and the UASR can serve as a long-term ally with an industrial base that would be of great benefit to the Republic.
For Germany, selling us weapons means escalating with the French. It is theoretically possible to create a triangle Germany - Neutral country (let's say Brazil) - Republic to disguise arms supplies, but this is quite difficult.

Otherwise I agree. The main difference is that I like it depending on the country with an unstable foreign policy.
 
I had actually considered a 2nd Foreign Policy Strategy. But considered it a bit too bold and risky for comfort.

It's called "Fuck Xin Han"

Establish Relationships with both Japan and the French. Japan is useful for the reasons you both talked about. The French I considered because as we all know, there is no French Government in existence that will pass off the chance to fuck with British interests, so Xin Han is in the crosshairs.

In this setup both Japan and the French would have reason to worry about Xin Han, which is by fair the most powerful of the contending Chinese States and directly contests them in East Asia. Japan because Xin Han is better positioned to eat the Qing and gain control of the South China Sea to their detriment, and the French because I can't imagine it'd be hard for Xin Han to smash open the French South and Indochina colonies.

The risky part is of course, alienating the Germans and the Revolution being deadset on planting the seeds of screwing over the French in South China. But it's not a bad plan.

But yes, if we had to something like Japan-Germany or Japan-US, they would strong contenders.
It sounds from the update like France is not so much opposing Canada as subbing in for them.

The carving up of the British colonial empire has brought it ever so closer to the Xin Han, sweeping up formerly British-owned businesses or administrations in the state in an effort to secure the great gains that could be had from exploiting the Chinese region. Negotiations with the French could prove tough, given our noticeable alignment with the Germans in the midst of mutual Franco-German hostility, and our further nationalist rhetoric stressing the colonial governors of the southern Chinese provinces.

That also seems to match up with the news update where France was dangling the carrot of an agreement to devolve a province to Xin Han in exchange for some economic privileges IIRC.

If France is getting its hooks all into Xin Han they would probably be pretty reluctant to weaken Xin Han vs. us because Xin Han pretty consistently rolls over to do whatever even Canada says and we're more of a wildcard.

I think a more anti-French posture could serve to build up the nationalist credentials that we kind of let slip away from us while fighting at Russia's side. If Xin Han looks like a bunch of phoneys trying to serve every foreign power but meanwhile we are positioning more stridently against it then that could be a big deal in recruiting more people to our side in Xin Han territories who can sympathize with chafing under a reign that places European interests before Chinese ones. We may get some nasty hits in the meantime but we seem less vulnerable to that than other groups as we have fairly minimal coastal holdings, a way way inland capital and our border with France is extremely rugged and hard to supply terrain that they were already struggling with.
 
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