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[X][RWF] The 3rd is, realistically, at your mercy, but that is no way to treat allies. It would be grossly inappropriate to hold this leverage over them. You will recognize Admiral Malan as the local, ranking representative of the Republic of Rannoch, with absolute power over his domain and empowered to purchase yard space and other goods and services from your government in the Republic's name, credited to their government. This polite fiction, of course, binds the Republic itself not a whit, but the sheer generosity of this deal will represent a major concession on your part when you establish contact with the Republic proper and commence negotiations. Realistically, Malan will do what you ask of him regardless of the formality of your relationship -- but in this case, it would be asking, and to preserve the pretense would require that it ever remain just asking.
[X][RUNNER] You authorized his request. The chance isn't good, but with the EC running it, you think you have a shot. This kind of thing is held to be impossible, and consequently, has never been tried...so the Rachni will never expect it. Sending him a hurried data packet containing information that you want the rest of the galaxy to have (your available forces, your ability to contribute to the fight, data analysis on the Rachni from this last operation, the rescue of the 3rd RWF, etc.) you gave him a few other ships to boost his chances and sent him on his way. Commits Captain Jamar Kurik and several EC vessels to a blockade run, taking advantage of Rachni weaknesses along the path. All battle rolls along the way will be made with his characteristic martial bonus (19). Failure means death.
 
Hmmmmmm - so, we should stick to battle cruisers?
Nah.
We need the punch of a dreadnought fleet to crack the larger garrisons that will almost certainly be sitting on our relays after this, in order to let Beshkar and his raiders get in and shank the enemy supply lines in the kidneys.

But in the meantime, we will look less dangerous than people who roll deep with multiple dreads.
 
Nah.
We need the punch of a dreadnought fleet to crack the larger garrisons that will almost certainly be sitting on our relays after this, in order to let Beshkar and his raiders get in and shank the enemy supply lines in the kidneys.

But in the meantime, we will look less dangerous than people who roll deep with multiple dreads.
After we did that we cannot stop. Because then our threat rating goes through the roof. ... Or we are one factor that forces the Rachni to try to turtle in their core sectors, build up and go for round two.
 
... Reading some of this discussion that has nothing to do with the current vote... I hope it doesn't influence Mira's opinion. I know I'm skimming it and I'm disagreeing with most of what VoidZero is thinking when he implies distrust of the Quarian Admiral and speculation that the Lystheni would expect to benefit from removing Mira, among other speculation.

In fact, I wouldn't have bothered commenting at all except for the small chance that not commenting might make Mira more paranoid than she needs to be. All because discussion affects Mira's mindset...

I'm sure lawful evil wouldn't read too much into 1 voter's opinion, majority rules as it should be.

Citation needed. For all of this.
But that claim is functionally saying the Lystheni are retarded. Because why are the Terminus, Citadel and Quarians still fighting if we managed to "have completed ensured that Rachni are unable to assault the core system"?


I'm speculation on the basis that Lystheni working with limited information as we haven't noticed any of their ships going to AB relay. Because something is very wrong if our news aren't reporting our successes against the Ranchni and Lystheni have someway of knowing what we wouldn't tell the public.

The original answer was about Lystheni backstabbing us, but, whatever. Yes, I agree, no lack of short-sighted idiots. But even short-sighted CEOs don't work alone, cannot do shit alone and have to convince/browbeat/blackmail others. Now, if we start with unpopular measures, lose some fights and get a few of our cities annihilated, that might convince enough people that we must be removed. Stopping looney loners however, is the job of our internal security.

I was saying i'm suspecting Lystheni working with the corporations and/or politicians against Mira, sorry if that wasn't clear.

... that is spaghetti posting, isn't it? Anyone an idea how to avoid that and still make clear which point I'm trying to address?

We are all replying point by point, so it should be ok? Too late for all of us anyway. :V
 
I'm speculation on the basis that Lystheni working with limited information as we haven't noticed any of their ships going to AB relay. Because something is very wrong if our news aren't reporting our successes against the Ranchni and Lystheni have someway of knowing what we wouldn't tell the public.
Given the Lystheni spying, that's a valid assumption. But the same spies would report a galaxy wide fight still being fought, and I assume by now there's also reports available of what Rachni do with biomass. So, taking these reports and deciding 'pffft, the rest of the galaxy is fighting, but we are secure' - well. We are talking kind of humans, so, it's possible, but it's definitely not sane.
We are all replying point by point, so it should be ok? Too late for all of us anyway. :V
Just want to continue the discussion because, even if I do not agree that doesn't mean I'm right, so, I might change my point of view and discussing gets problematic with a thread ban.
 
[X][RWF] The 3rd is, realistically, at your mercy, but that is no way to treat allies. It would be grossly inappropriate to hold this leverage over them. You will recognize Admiral Malan as the local, ranking representative of the Republic of Rannoch, with absolute power over his domain and empowered to purchase yard space and other goods and services from your government in the Republic's name, credited to their government. This polite fiction, of course, binds the Republic itself not a whit, but the sheer generosity of this deal will represent a major concession on your part when you establish contact with the Republic proper and commence negotiations. Realistically, Malan will do what you ask of him regardless of the formality of your relationship -- but in this case, it would be asking, and to preserve the pretense would require that it ever remain just asking.
[X][RUNNER] You denied his request. You're not in the habit of arguing suicide mission of this nature. You withdraw without sending any corvettes.
 
[X][RWF] The 3rd is, realistically, at your mercy, but that is no way to treat allies. It would be grossly inappropriate to hold this leverage over them. You will recognize Admiral Malan as the local, ranking representative of the Republic of Rannoch, with absolute power over his domain and empowered to purchase yard space and other goods and services from your government in the Republic's name, credited to their government. This polite fiction, of course, binds the Republic itself not a whit, but the sheer generosity of this deal will represent a major concession on your part when you establish contact with the Republic proper and commence negotiations. Realistically, Malan will do what you ask of him regardless of the formality of your relationship -- but in this case, it would be asking, and to preserve the pretense would require that it ever remain just asking.
[X][RUNNER] You denied his request. You're not in the habit of arguing suicide mission of this nature. You withdraw without sending any corvettes.
 
[X][RWF] The 3rd is, realistically, at your mercy, but that is no way to treat allies. It would be grossly inappropriate to hold this leverage over them. You will recognize Admiral Malan as the local, ranking representative of the Republic of Rannoch, with absolute power over his domain and empowered to purchase yard space and other goods and services from your government in the Republic's name, credited to their government. This polite fiction, of course, binds the Republic itself not a whit, but the sheer generosity of this deal will represent a major concession on your part when you establish contact with the Republic proper and commence negotiations. Realistically, Malan will do what you ask of him regardless of the formality of your relationship -- but in this case, it would be asking, and to preserve the pretense would require that it ever remain just asking.
[X][RUNNER] You denied his request. You're not in the habit of arguing suicide mission of this nature. You withdraw without sending any corvettes.
 
[X][RWF] The 3rd is, realistically, at your mercy, but that is no way to treat allies. It would be grossly inappropriate to hold this leverage over them. You will recognize Admiral Malan as the local, ranking representative of the Republic of Rannoch, with absolute power over his domain and empowered to purchase yard space and other goods and services from your government in the Republic's name, credited to their government. This polite fiction, of course, binds the Republic itself not a whit, but the sheer generosity of this deal will represent a major concession on your part when you establish contact with the Republic proper and commence negotiations. Realistically, Malan will do what you ask of him regardless of the formality of your relationship -- but in this case, it would be asking, and to preserve the pretense would require that it ever remain just asking.
[X][RUNNER] You denied his request. You're not in the habit of arguing suicide missions of this nature. You withdraw without sending any corvettes.
 
It's the part where the Admiral have absolute power over his domain that i do not like. Because it means he does not need to do jack if he or his fleet feels they are not yet ready or simply does not feel like do anything.
Which suits US just fine.
As long as they are sitting in Attican Beta with their two dreads, the enemy has to honor the threat.
And even in the absence of gratitude, there is frankly a limit to how much footdragging can be done when someone else controls your logistics.

Besides, these are Quarians. Soldiers of another country.
Do you think they are going to be happy sitting on their butts without knowing if their home needs their help? Their families?
We are likely to be the people holding them back and urging caution, rather than the other way round.

Ask the soldiers stationed in oversea bases post WW2, Cold War, or current day. The exists news of soldiers committing crimes where the local authority can't stop or prosecute because the army base was simply untouchable.
And?
Let's be clear here; it's in both our interests, the 3RWF and Virmire govt, to make this work.
And so it will. Minor incidents will be dealt with in-house or brushed under the carpet, major incidents will get the hammer.

Even in unequal relationships like the US marine base on Okinawa, the base authorities go to lengths to avoid friction with the locals.
Much less in a situation where a fleet is surrounded by much bigger guns, knows that it owes a debt to people who saved it's life, and is dependent on its hosts for literally everything from food to supplies.

If it involves our national? Like it or not, babies pop out and we have to take care of them because fleet is no place for them. Then comes the school questions, family relationship, marriage. We don't know how long the war and blockade will last.
Just how enthusiastically do you think they are supposed to be copulating?
Or that longterm contraceptives aren't a thing for quarians?
Not to mention that literally the only people around who can procreate with the Quarians are asari.

Getting the seat of Prime Minister's office actually, as well as removal of the threat of purge in corporation sector. Pretty sure some of our political contender are heavily lobbied by corporations to turn back the clock too.
Detecting fuckery is the job of our Intrigue Minister, who is rated as Masterful Intrigue.
And she's doing a fine job.

I'm speculation on the basis that Lystheni working with limited information as we haven't noticed any of their ships going to AB relay. Because something is very wrong if our news aren't reporting our successes against the Ranchni and Lystheni have someway of knowing what we wouldn't tell the public.
We have a free press, or as free as a press is during times of war.
Just following the news reports will give you a good idea of what the warfront is like.
And that doesn't include their spy network. There's a reason we've left it alone for the meantime.

I was saying i'm suspecting Lystheni working with the corporations and/or politicians against Mira, sorry if that wasn't clear.
No evidence of this. Zero. Zilch.

Our Intrigue 22 Intelligence Minister and our Intrigue 20 Chief of Staff have found zero evidence of foreign fuckery with our internal politics.
Not to mention that the paranoid corporations looking to avoid giving us cause have no incentive to ally with a brokeass foreign power, even if they had no patriotism.

Seriously, you're talking about a planet and group of people that couldn't order electronics in enough quantities to qualify for a bulk purchase discount as of Turn 9. Where exactly do you think they are going to be getting the resources to attempt to subvert the politics of a nation several orders of magnitude larger and richer? Even if they wanted to?
 
I am a bit worried about the Rachni finding a backdoor into Sentry Omega or Kepler Verge. Brishak Expanse is new an unexplored, if they find a relay there that goes into one of our two backline clusters our military position will be sorely weakened.

Not knowing our surroundings sucks.
 
[X][RWF] The 3rd is, realistically, at your mercy, but that is no way to treat allies. It would be grossly inappropriate to hold this leverage over them. You will recognize Admiral Malan as the local, ranking representative of the Republic of Rannoch, with absolute power over his domain and empowered to purchase yard space and other goods and services from your government in the Republic's name, credited to their government. This polite fiction, of course, binds the Republic itself not a whit, but the sheer generosity of this deal will represent a major concession on your part when you establish contact with the Republic proper and commence negotiations. Realistically, Malan will do what you ask of him regardless of the formality of your relationship -- but in this case, it would be asking, and to preserve the pretense would require that it ever remain just asking.
[X][RUNNER] You denied his request. You're not in the habit of arguing suicide mission of this nature. You withdraw without sending any corvettes.
 
[X][RWF] The 3rd is, realistically, at your mercy, but that is no way to treat allies. It would be grossly inappropriate to hold this leverage over them. You will recognize Admiral Malan as the local, ranking representative of the Republic of Rannoch, with absolute power over his domain and empowered to purchase yard space and other goods and services from your government in the Republic's name, credited to their government. This polite fiction, of course, binds the Republic itself not a whit, but the sheer generosity of this deal will represent a major concession on your part when you establish contact with the Republic proper and commence negotiations. Realistically, Malan will do what you ask of him regardless of the formality of your relationship -- but in this case, it would be asking, and to preserve the pretense would require that it ever remain just asking.
[X][RUNNER] You authorized his request. Thechance isn't good, but with the EC running it,you think you have a shot. This kind of thing isheld to be impossible, and consequently, hasnever been tried...so the Rachni will neverexpect it. Sending him a hurried data packet containing information that you want the rest ofthe galaxy to have (your available forces, your ability to contribute to the fight, data analysis onthe Rachni from this last operation, the rescue ofthe 3rd RWF, etc.) you gave him a few other ships to boost his chances and sent him on his way. Commits Captain Jamar Kurik and several EC vessels to a blockade run, taking advantage of Rachni weaknesses along the path. All battle rolls along the way will be made with his characteristic martial bonus(19). Failure means death.
 
I am a bit worried about the Rachni finding a backdoor into Sentry Omega or Kepler Verge. Brishak Expanse is new an unexplored, if they find a relay there that goes into one of our two backline clusters our military position will be sorely weakened.

Not knowing our surroundings sucks.
The Rachni have the same problem.
Does that mean all participants in this war are going to open new Relays in the hope of getting a strategic advantage?
 
So, I go to sleep, and wake up to find we lost a BC and... a couple other small ships. Nice! Better than I'd feared. And the Rachni aren't pushing things because that doomstack was made up from border garrison fleets, which is really nice to hear. The news that they are stretched further than I thought is nice, even if it does mean that there's a very valid argument for letting Kurik go make his run. Hm. Best-case, 2-3 combat rolls (Hades Nexus entry, Hades Nexus exit, possibly Phoenix Massing entry). Argh. And, of course, he'll have the intel data, so the other powers will know to keep up the pressure so the Rachni can't put as much resources into colonization.

Also, holy hell we are going to be making about a corvette's volume of medals for our navy.

First vote is easy. Let's not be a dick to the fleet that just shared 5 dreadnought kills with us. Second vote... because I think that it's worth trying, even if it's extremely risky. Success would likely lead to an improved strategic position, since the other powers wouldn't have the results of the recon pulse, or the data we have from our internal position.

[X][RWF] The 3rd is, realistically, at your mercy, but that is no way to treat allies. It would be grossly inappropriate to hold this leverage over them. You will recognize Admiral Malan as the local, ranking representative of the Republic of Rannoch, with absolute power over his domain and empowered to purchase yard space and other goods and services from your government in the Republic's name, credited to their government. This polite fiction, of course, binds the Republic itself not a whit, but the sheer generosity of this deal will represent a major concession on your part when you establish contact with the Republic proper and commence negotiations. Realistically, Malan will do what you ask of him regardless of the formality of your relationship -- but in this case, it would be asking, and to preserve the pretense would require that it ever remain just asking.
[X][RUNNER] You authorized his request. The chance isn't good, but with the EC running it,you think you have a shot. This kind of thing is held to be impossible, and consequently, has never been tried...so the Rachni will never expect it. Sending him a hurried data packet containing information that you want the rest of the galaxy to have (your available forces, your ability to contribute to the fight, data analysis on the Rachni from this last operation, the rescue of the 3rd RWF, etc.) you gave him a few other ships to boost his chances and sent him on his way. Commits Captain Jamar Kurik and several EC vessels to a blockade run, taking advantage of Rachni weaknesses along the path. All battle rolls along the way will be made with his characteristic martial bonus(19). Failure means death.
 
[X] [RUNNER] You denied his request. You're not in the habit of arguing suicide mission of this nature. You withdraw without sending any corvettes
 
[X][RWF] The 3rd is, realistically, at your mercy, but that is no way to treat allies. It would be grossly inappropriate to hold this leverage over them. You will recognize Admiral Malan as the local, ranking representative of the Republic of Rannoch, with absolute power over his domain and empowered to purchase yard space and other goods and services from your government in the Republic's name, credited to their government. This polite fiction, of course, binds the Republic itself not a whit, but the sheer generosity of this deal will represent a major concession on your part when you establish contact with the Republic proper and commence negotiations. Realistically, Malan will do what you ask of him regardless of the formality of your relationship -- but in this case, it would be asking, and to preserve the pretense would require that it ever remainjust asking.
[X][RUNNER] You denied his request. You're not in the habit of arguing suicide mission of this nature. You withdraw without sending any corvettes.
 
I'd like to do a blockade run at the next earliest opportunity, but as a planned, organized operation that we've prepared in advance, specifically timing any raids we stage to maximally disrupt the rachni lines. Trying to jump through rachni space after the enemy has already consolidated from the chaos created by our attacks and linkup with the Quarian Third Fleet is going to be a lot harder than trying to jump through rachni space in the midst of an ongoing attack by our froces.

We just took out an entire fleet, and what is in all probability their rapid response force is chasing us. They have us outnumbered, and logically they would expect us to fall back, which we've been doing all battle. There is already chaos, chaos enough that a few corvettes just might slip through.

And while its true that we won't benefit from Kurik's stat bonuses at home while he's off on his expedition, the cold facts are that we've discovered enough new worlds in the cluster that we could spend decades or more setting up mining installations or sponsoring colonies. While the Explorer Corps continuing to see what lies where Virmiran has gone before is certainly useful on some level, and does have a flair of the romantic, since it shows that we are planning for after the war, showing confidence that the enemy before us can be defeated, I think Kurik is more useful going on that run.

If we don't make contact again, outside forces will have no idea if the Rachni decided to crush us like an egg after we hijacked their communications network, particularly since the Rachni wouldn't want a safe haven for other fleets. Did we go after the Quarians? Did we succeed? Or is Virmire burning? The Citadel at least will probably try to play it cautiously. The Terminus Alliance I don't know about, but given that the RoR just lost a War Fleet, they may conclude they can't afford to push too much further.

The value of the 3WF is not just in the ships, the technology aboard them, the soldiers, or their skills. I would go so far as to say that the way they can be most useful to us is a symbol of what Virimire can accomplish, and the lengths to which we are willing to go. Goodwill after the war, or whenever we end up making contact later is good.

The Quarians knowing that the 3WF was not destroyed, that they have found shelter with Virmire, is huge. It means that war fleet isn't really lost, just operating on another front, in cooperation with a powerful ally. And knowing that, don't you think that significantly ups the chance of a renewed offensive? Or strengthens public opinion for a push for one? War isn't just a thing of ships and soldiers. It's also a thing of the mind, which is why morale is so important. Even the Citadel, the so-called greatest power in the galaxy, has seen themselves losing worlds, forced to be on the defensive, being pushed back. Against that example, let us set Virmire, which is not just holding off the endless horde, but taking clusters, burning Rachni worlds, showing that even a former colony can make inroads, and that if we work together, the war can be won.

Besides, what is it Kirk likes to say? Risk is our business.

Ep 2x22 said:
Risk..." he concludes, "risk is our business. That's what this starship is all about. That's why we're aboard her."

Let's trust our Batarian Kirk to know his.
 
Thus far a fairly landslide vote.

Inserted tally
Adhoc vote count started by Gamefreak1ed on Feb 3, 2018 at 9:41 AM, finished with 9388 posts and 40 votes.

  • [X][RWF] The 3rd is, realistically, at your mercy, but that is no way to treat allies. It would be grossly inappropriate to hold this leverage over them. You will recognize Admiral Malan as the local, ranking representative of the Republic of Rannoch, with absolute power over his domain and empowered to purchase yard space and other goods and services from your government in the Republic's name, credited to their government. This polite fiction, of course, binds the Republic itself not a whit, but the sheer generosity of this deal will represent a major concession on your part when you establish contact with the Republic proper and commence negotiations. Realistically, Malan will do what you ask of him regardless of the formality of your relationship -- but in this case, it would be asking, and to preserve the pretense would require that it ever remain just asking.
    [X][RUNNER] You denied his request. You're not in the habit of arguing suicide mission of this nature. You withdraw without sending any corvettes.
    [X][RUNNER] You authorized his request. The chance isn't good, but with the EC running it, you think you have a shot. This kind of thing is held to be impossible, and consequently, has never been tried...so the Rachni will never expect it. Sending him a hurried data packet containing information that you want the rest of the galaxy to have (your available forces, your ability to contribute to the fight, data analysis on the Rachni from this last operation, the rescue of the 3rd RWF, etc.) you gave him a few other ships to boost his chances and sent him on his way. Commits Captain Jamar Kurik and several EC vessels to a blockade run, taking advantage of Rachni weaknesses along the path. All battle rolls along the way will be made with his characteristic martial bonus (19). Failure means death.
    [X][RWF] You are at war, and Malan has already indicated his willingness to submit to your command. Make sure that he understands that this is no formality, moving forward. While the 3rd RWF remains a quarian asset, it must be under your command. It will of course be returned to the Republic of Rannoch once contact is re-established, but until that time, it behaves as a Virmirean possession. Malan shall receive all of the respect and precedence due his rank, but he will be your subordinate, with all that that implies. This won't buy you any favors from the -- famously xenophobic -- Republic when it comes time for negotiations, but the realities of the situation mean that it really won't hurt, either. You've already bought yourself a lot of future goodwill by saving this fleet in the first place, anyway.
    [X][RWF] The 3rd is, realistically, at your mercy, but that is no way to treat allies. It would be grossly inappropriate to hold this leverage over them. You will recognize Admiral Malan as the local, ranking representative of the Republic of Rannoch, with absolute power over his domain and empowered to purchase yard space and other goods and services from your government in the Republic's name, credited to their government. This polite fiction, of course, binds the Republic itself not a whit, but the sheer generosity of this deal will represent a major concession on your part when you establish contact with the Republic proper and commence negotiations. Realistically, Malan will do what you ask of him regardless of the formality of your relationship -- but in this case, it would be asking, and to preserve the pretense would require that it ever remain just asking.
    [X][RUNNER] You authorized his request. The chance isn't good, but with the EC running it, you think you have a shot. This kind of thing is held to be impossible, and consequently, has never been tried...so the Rachni will never expect it. Sending him a hurried data packet containing information that you want the rest of the galaxy to have (your available forces, your ability to contribute to the fight, data analysis on the Rachni from this last operation, the rescue of the 3rd RWF, etc.) you gave him a few other ships to boost his chances and sent him on his way. Commits Captain Jamar Kurik and several EC vessels to a blockade run, taking advantage of Rachni weaknesses along the path. All battle rolls along the way will be made with his characteristic martial bonus (19). Failure means death.
 
[X][RWF] The 3rd is, realistically, at your mercy, but that is no way to treat allies. It would be grossly inappropriate to hold this leverage over them. You will recognize Admiral Malan as the local, ranking representative of the Republic of Rannoch, with absolute power over his domain and empowered to purchase yard space and other goods and services from your government in the Republic's name, credited to their government. This polite fiction, of course, binds the Republic itself not a whit, but the sheer generosity of this deal will represent a major concession on your part when you establish contact with the Republic proper and commence negotiations. Realistically, Malan will do what you ask of him regardless of the formality of your relationship -- but in this case, it would be asking, and to preserve the pretense would require that it ever remain just asking.
 
[X][RWF] The 3rd is, realistically, at your mercy, but that is no way to treat allies. It would be grossly inappropriate to hold this leverage over them. You will recognize Admiral Malan as the local, ranking representative of the Republic of Rannoch, with absolute power over his domain and empowered to purchase yard space and other goods and services from your government in the Republic's name, credited to their government. This polite fiction, of course, binds the Republic itself not a whit, but the sheer generosity of this deal will represent a major concession on your part when you establish contact with the Republic proper and commence negotiations. Realistically, Malan will do what you ask of him regardless of the formality of your relationship -- but in this case, it would be asking, and to preserve the pretense would require that it ever remain just asking.

[X][RUNNER] You denied his request. You're not in the habit of arguing suicide mission of this nature. You withdraw without sending any corvettes.
 
[X][RWF] The 3rd is, realistically, at your mercy, but that is no way to treat allies. It would be grossly inappropriate to hold this leverage over them. You will recognize Admiral Malan as the local, ranking representative of the Republic of Rannoch, with absolute power over his domain and empowered to purchase yard space and other goods and services from your government in the Republic's name, credited to their government. This polite fiction, of course, binds the Republic itself not a whit, but the sheer generosity of this deal will represent a major concession on your part when you establish contact with the Republic proper and commence negotiations. Realistically, Malan will do what you ask of him regardless of the formality of your relationship -- but in this case, it would be asking, and to preserve the pretense would require that it ever remain just asking.
[X][RUNNER] You denied his request. You're not in the habit of arguing suicide mission of this nature. You withdraw without sending any corvettes.
 
Best-case, 2-3 combat rolls (Hades Nexus entry, Hades Nexus exit, possibly Phoenix Massing entry)
The problem with that is, we can expect enemy admirals to be about as competent as Kurik, which puts it down to dice rolls for each encounter. Figuring the math on Kurik's odds of winning each encounter is non-trivial, but it's also the same odds as the rachini winning, so it's roughly a coin flip for each encounter.

That gives Kurik 1 in 4 odds of surviving with 2 encounters, and I think 1 in 8 of surviving 3. I don't like those odds
 
The problem with that is, we can expect enemy admirals to be about as competent as Kurik, which puts it down to dice rolls for each encounter. Figuring the math on Kurik's odds of winning each encounter is non-trivial, but it's also the same odds as the rachini winning, so it's roughly a coin flip for each encounter.

That gives Kurik 1 in 4 odds of surviving with 2 encounters, and I think 1 in 8 of surviving 3. I don't like those odds
You assume that this coin flip is independent of the size of the opposition. It could be worse.
 
The problem with that is, we can expect enemy admirals to be about as competent as Kurik, which puts it down to dice rolls for each encounter. Figuring the math on Kurik's odds of winning each encounter is non-trivial, but it's also the same odds as the rachini winning, so it's roughly a coin flip for each encounter.

That gives Kurik 1 in 4 odds of surviving with 2 encounters, and I think 1 in 8 of surviving 3. I don't like those odds

Keep in mind that he isn't trying to necessarily kill the enemy, but to slip through, something which a few corvettes might have a shot at, even if he has to engineer some chaos to do so. Also, he doesn't doesn't need to make it through with all his his forces - realistically, we only need one of the corvettes being sent on the run to survive.
 
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