Storm Trooper Mafia

I can try to get quotage for this if you want to see things for yourself, but I would kinda like to go offline soon so I'd rather just grab particulars?
Feel free to sleep, I'll either be catching up or passing out again.

If I fall asleep myself, I'll probably just claim before I head into work.
 
@Byzantine did what I think is a pre-game scumslip.
Stormtroopers pretty explicitly have guns on hand.
I'm not sure I really believe that to be a scumslip, but I kind of believe IH believes it was, which is useful in itself. At the very least, IH and Byzantine are almost certainly not scum together.
"But not really" except actually not really?
 
So, based on that, the best way to tell if I'm scum is probably to pressure me for reads/reasonings, and not just mechanical stuff, if the game allows it. It's not a guarantee, but if I'm scum this game you'll be pushing me to do something I haven't really had to do before as scum.
So got any reads? :V
 
So a timeline of events:
I call out what I see as a scumslip from Byzantine (BZ) at the very start of D1.
Broken Base (BB) agrees (not really but we're being terse).
Dawiusz (DZ) agrees.
BB shifts vote to DZ.
I call this out as suspicious.
Meso later, seemingly without realizing I had done so, calls this out as suspicious.
Discussion occurs about whether BB protecting BZ is plausible. Tangents from this discussion are what Meso is referencing in his post immediately prior to Nanimani's vote.

I can try to get quotage for this if you want to see things for yourself, but I would kinda like to go offline soon so I'd rather just grab particulars?
This timeline hurts now. I'll forgive it because you were going off of memory, but this gives an entirely different impression of what things happened than actually reading things did.

Like, "Broken Base Agrees" is referencing BB voting them for something entirely unrelated to your 'scumslip', while "Dawiusz agrees" is them agreeing with it being a scumslip. Byzantine's vote on DZ isn't mentioned at all, and it probably should be if the talk is about BB protecting them since it uses the same rationale that BB had explained to DZ. Plus, checking the vote counter, BB's vote on DZ is at page ten. Six pages and twenty-six hours after everything else, and it's all just skipped and there's no mention of it not being an event at the time and...

(Post shifts off to internal screaming)

You've got me tempted to make a proper timeline to correct this, but I don't have time for that right now.
 
Actually, all of what IH is saying isn't actually telling me anything.

@InterstellarHobo @Nanimani I doubt I'm going to completely catch up before I leave. Explain why you're voting me.

Hobo, your timeline told me nothing useful and doesn't match up to you saying it is for BB's 'Start of Day lynch behaviour.' And has there seriously been nothing else of note in the day that you're voting my slot despite "Play since suspicion started has been unimpeachable. Gave decent defences for their behaviour"?
 
Can anyone else explain what's going on? What are the arguments against Meso and Byzantine? Why are the other two wagons new players? If someone else knows why my wagon exists, it would be helpful because I'm currently staring at a sudden swingaround lynch on me because we don't lynch new players Day 1 barring some serious misplays.
 
Sooo, I'll give it a try.

Meso vote:
- Byzantine is voting Meso cause Meso was
- Oshha is going after Meso cause he is voting for Byzantine (newbie) at day 1

Byzantine vote:
- Meso is voting him cause a) probable scum-team in at least -Rosen/BB/Byzantine and b) Byzantine voting him (with a perceived change in behaviour of Byz within your first real appearance)
The "stats" had nothing to do with my analysis of your and Broken Base interactions. It was part of trying to figure out whether to scumread or town read Dawiusz. I don't think this misstatement is unintentional on your part.

And the sudden change in direction and play style once Nictis showed up to replace BB is also notable.
Oh, I almost forgot

[X] Lynch Byzantine

- -Rosen is voting him for tmi
I might be reading too much into things but these two parts seem like some really weird TMI to me. Someone let me know if I'm just crazy please
[x]Lynch Byzantine

Okay I'm definitely not going crazy over this one

QTess is getting lynched by 1k to get him to post.

Way too many people have a null vote, me included. Mind we have about half the game that hasn't really produced much content yet, which makes this the bit of a clusterfuck we have right now (me included again)
The vote on you I'll have to look for IH's reasons. Nani's is that for him the interactions between BB and Rosen seemed to support each other too much, both of them leading town and not feeling really convinced by BB's arguments so far. Meanwhile trying to advocate a bit for a policy lynch on low activity players here and somewhere later.

Honestly same. I'm just not much a fan of them going at someone for using the exact same argument you did while not poking you at all.

Thought I did that, but lemme be blunt then.
You and Rosen are essentially in like 80% control of town's voice, made more effective in doing so by the fact that you're pretty much always aligned in your thoughts and poking flaws in theories that involve the other as scummates. This impression isn't helped by the fact that your arguments are, in general, rather unconvincing to me and carried mostly by your ability to present them in terms of getting more people behind them. Like, seriously? Not having strong reads by the second day of D1 is very suspicious?

Given that you're valuable players, tbh I wouldn't prefer to vote you this early, but I wasn't confident I'd make it late enough to gather more evidence. Also, you know, I kinda had to vote someone at this point, and this is more likely to provoke something than going for an inactive.
 
Got his initial reasoning.

Thanks, I'm not sure why I couldn't find it.

My second pick would be you, actually. Particularly wit that response, since earlier you voted Byzantine explicitly because of his poor reesponse to pressure, and seemed fairly strongly suspicious of him. The next person to join the suspicion very rapidly got a significantly stronger lynch on them, with what appears to me to be strictly weaker justification. Simultaneously, you did an about face on Byzantine.
The timeline of events could very be plausibly interpreted as attempting to distance yourself from Byzantine, then attempting to save them by finding a scapegoat.


Third and fourth are Dawiusz and -Rosen, both extremely weak scumreads.
Dawiusz, I entirely sympathize with not voting until late in the day due to uncertainty, and I'm not entirely convinced early voting is particularly town-helpful. (I'd love to argue this point btw. If early voting is important that'd be very valuable to know.) Still, I can understand why someone might be inclined to lynch them.
-Rosen, is behaving almost identically to last game; i.e. asking a not-particularly-important question and then focusing way too hard on one or two particular responses. I don't agree with their reasoning at all, but... it's nearly identical behaviour to last game, where they were town, so scumreading is... dubious, to say the least.

After that it's... probably ComiTurtle, by carryover from the justification on you. That's a seriously weakass read though, and I wouldn't remotely consider lynching on those grounds alone.

I don't think LD's answers to a frankly rather unimportant question are remotely scum indicative, nor was their response to pressure. There's nothing to make me townread though.

I don't think 1K jumping in to defend LD is too scum indicative either. -Rosen's read was bad, and arguing against a bad read is important . I only kept out of it because the argument was clearly going nowhere.

Basically nobody else has enough content to read. (Or if they do I missed it.)
 
EBWOP:
Byz is voting Meso cause he feels like Meso is throwing shade at him and BB (potential scum team) with weak reasoning and using statistics to gaslight.

It finally hit me what felt off about Meso. It feels like he started with the conclusion and tried to work up an argument for why it made sense, but couldn't come up with a good one. So he tried throwing numbers out there hoping it would make everyone glaze over and not pay attention to the fact that any combination is, naturally, equally likely in a void. And that this isn't a void anyway. And scum can coordinate while town cannot - that makes it likely that if scum were involved it was preplanned to some degree, which makes trying random distributions even less wise. So...

[X] Lynch mesonoxian

The wagon was literally two people in the first two hours of day 1. (Also I'm a noob and getting unfortunate attention is to be expected, Daw had the same thing happen.)

IH started the push (and in fact is the only one still on me). Daw was trying to jump on the wagon without actually joining it, which was what was strange from my point of view. But a Day 1, day 1 lynch from the first few hours? BB is too good to panic that easily and quickly, even if I was scum with her.

He's making a really bad argument and using stats to back it up. It's a pretty common gaslighting trick, I don't think I've seen someone do it in the few mafia games I've read through, but no reason it wouldn't make a decent trick for scum. The trick is that you can't use statistics which naturally presupposes all scenarios are equally likely - then start throwing out scenarios as unlikely, then claim something matters due to "the number of scenarios left". That's utter nonsense. Like worse the Nictis's usual railroading.

... How did I forget to post this before???
 
Thanks Tykan.

Okay, so.

@-Rosen I can say that Byzantine had been reading several of the other games as they were going on, so him having an idea of some players' meta is not TMI. Him having read the last game is not TMI. Unless if there's something relevant to this game that is making you think it's a case of TMI, stop suspecting him for it.
@mesonoxian Taking the assumption that me and Byzantine are not in a scumteam together, what do you think of things? And how did Byzantine's playstyle change when I subbed in? Is the vote on Byzantine just for associations and voting you or is there more to it?
@Byzantine What do you think of things so far, I have been curious on how that much prereading would affect your reads. Can you explain your reasoning on Meso for me and if anyone else is popping out as suspicious to you?

Oh, and Tykan, who are you feeling is worst right now?

I'll admit that I gave up on actually reading through the thread and am mostly flitting about. A couple of people (Rosen and 1K) are tugging on my paranoia right now, but I can't really lock onto anything since I'm not actually all that informed on what's happened in the game so far.

Although, so far 1K is still my strongest scumread. Not just for the 'First' comment this time though.
 
I can give a more thorough summary of early game, but I've had about the same issues as Cyric trying to catch up since last night.
>_>

I disagree with the above.

Also @Cyricubed it feels weird to be apart after two games in a QT with you.
Cassandra. Tell me who the scum are.

[X] Lynch Comiturtle
[x] lynch comiturtle

Probably should've stayed on this before, but I was on and off voting you for saying you wouldn't keep posting, sooo...
The last two games we've been implicitly aligned with each other and our votes have followed each other closely so seeing this when we're not makes me weirded out.
The last two games we've been implicitly aligned with each other and our votes have followed each other closely so seeing this when we're not makes me weirded out.
Oh... Right. Probably shouldn't sheep you. I'm just used to it at this point lol. Weird not to be able to trust you.
These raise my paranoia because this is basically their interactions last game, Cyricubed has a total of fifteen posts (understandably, but it tingles a bit), and I have learned last time that 1K is a very cheeky scum. I approve, but I remember her talking about her Town streak and wanting to eventually get scum.

[x]Lynch Byzantine

Okay I'm definitely not going crazy over this one
And this feels like particularly bad reasoning. Considering that Rosen has claimed to be able to read me from reading previous games, someone else knowing about my game charisma being TMI is strange.

Nani also slightly pings my paranoia for voting me over Rosen while giving actual reasons to be suspicious of Rosen, but refusing to vote Rosen because he had a bad Day 1 last game too after Rosen had acknowledged it as a playstyle he would have to change. A lot less of a ping, and probably more for voting me than for not voting Rosen, but it's there.
 
Hmm, my worst feeling right now is about Nani but it's rather weak.
I've problems with his reasoning for the BB vote.

Thought I did that, but lemme be blunt then.
You and Rosen are essentially in like 80% control of town's voice, made more effective in doing so by the fact that you're pretty much always aligned in your thoughts and poking flaws in theories that involve the other as scummates. This impression isn't helped by the fact that your arguments are, in general, rather unconvincing to me and carried mostly by your ability to present them in terms of getting more people behind them. Like, seriously? Not having strong reads by the second day of D1 is very suspicious?

Given that you're valuable players, tbh I wouldn't prefer to vote you this early, but I wasn't confident I'd make it late enough to gather more evidence. Also, you know, I kinda had to vote someone at this point, and this is more likely to provoke something than going for an inactive.

The 80% part is true but you have to look at the context here. We are 13 players, Cyri went missing right after the start for 2 days, Comi and QT don't post much at Day 1. I'm not overly talkative, LDJ and Meso at that point weren't either. IH wasn't actively scumhunting yet as well. Which leaves us with 6 somewhat active players. 5 since those were the first real posts of Nani as well.
2 of them are newbies, who try to be active (Byz) or tried to scumhunt (Dawiusz).
Which leaves us with -Rosen's typical icebreaker and the reactions from that (large part of Day 1)
and BB going to get something from all players, starting with Byz and Dawiusz, who volunteered for that.
1k is commenting on stuff, doing stuff but doesn't really scumhunt for now, aside the reasonable poke at inactives.
So it's clear that the two active players who try to advance the game have 80% of the thread.

The part about Rosen and BB helping each other... I'll be honest, I've to check that again. I partly fear I might have been sheeped a bit by BB. Maybe.
Nani says himself, that it is only a weak suspicion but he doesn't really work on this later on or goes on another lynch. (maybe a bit on Rosen aroud #412) Most of the rest reads like nothing.

What weirded me out a bit additionally is this
Okay, it's been like sixteen hours since I looked at the thr...oh...

Why do I let myself get so far behind? Okay, let's see how much time I have to read thr-




oh

Wait, no, I saw in the Discord Happery was extending the day.
Okay, one full day. Enough time to not need to rush, then.

I mean it might happen to forget the time. But, on Day 1... 1 1/2 hours after EoD.. Which is another weak as f* reason
 
Speaking of Rosen, let's do a quick look see to find if that paranoia grows or lowers.

Alright folks, time to try something out.

Welcome to interrogation time with dashRosen! Hope you have a good time, and I hope you can answer these following questions to the best of your ability.

1.) In terms of interacting with other people that you aren't suspicious of, do you tend to be more independent, dependent, or a little bit of both in regard to them?
2.) In late-game, do you tend to look more on recent developments in a game to further scum-hunting, or do you try to run on what's happened through the entire game?
3.) Giraffes or elephants?

Here's mine:

1.) I like to try and be a little bit of both whenever I can, so there will be times where I work directly with others, and times where I don't.
2.) I lean more toward recent developments than a big-picture approach; my attention span just isn't good enough to remember things from the beginning of a game when I'm close to the end of it.
3.) This isn't even a question, giraffes are objectively better!
>Started last game with RQS and ended up getting lynched for it.
>Decides to change playstyle here over it.
>Starts new game with RQS.
:thonk:
As long as he doesn't end up contradicting himself on this I suppose.
Eye is on Dawiusz right now for reasons; want to see how this conversation evolves before I make any real reads rn.
Mostly notable for timeline stuff which I am still tempted to do.
Generally a good rule of thumb is that it's standard to let the full Day play out, and anybody who cuts it short is essentially on a deathbed either the Night or Day after. Honestly you shouldn't really be worrying about a hammer happening unless it's very close to the end of the Day, when it becomes much more likely to happen.
Informing new player, NAI.
Care to give at least general responses instead of just non-answers?
Actually pushing joke responses to the question instead of just ignoring them. I guess that is a change from last time. :V

More seriously, I like this.
[x] Lynch LostDeviljho
For reference, this is because my questions are generally more game theory oriented, and not based solely on experience. These answers are obfuscation for no real reason.
I like these a lot less. Like if the first response was +2, these are -15 for credibility. For a start, the phrasing of the questions definitely does not agree with what Rosen is saying here. "Do you tend to..." and "Do you try to..." are definitely questions of behavior and experience, not game theory. That would be "Is it better to..." or "In this case..."

On the other side of things... How was that obfuscation? If it's in regards to the first question... Either that's the answer, or Rosen is asking for a "Who do you sheep" list. The second question is more understandable in that Rosen didn't get answered on LDJ's preference, but the phrasing was again absolutely answered by LDJ. 'I don't get to late game, ask again later' is a valid response to that question.

Biggest difference between LD and BB is that BB gave responses from her more scum-sided perspective, which still provides some valuable information for a situation where we're looking at these questions. On the other hand, there is nothing there that can even possibly be analyzed from LD's response. Something like this is textbook "I'm going to not give a 'real' answer to avoid a gotcha moment later," whereas BB's response does not do that.

In fact, BB's response makes her my strongest Town-read right now, with the opposite being true for LD.
"I didn't like their answer and so I scumread them." I'll admit to not knowing this term well, but is this OMGUS?

For context, here's BB's post.
1. I think it depends? I can be a bit more passive on my townreads than I would otherwise like, but I try to put in effort to critique everyone and not get too fixated on my scumreads- I think a substantial change in my scumgame is how much more performative my solving can become and how fixated I become on certain narratives that feel nice, ftr.
2. I honestly don't recall the last time I was lategame and town; as scum things are typically going well and so I don't necessarily feel the need to rebuild and tend to keep on keeping on. I do sometimes fish out new suspects and go in different directions but it's rare to see me do a hard reset. One thing I definitely want to try and do more is continually pay closer attention to the ever-evolving gamestate overall, though. I think that complacency tends to happen to towns a lot and it's one of the things that is most prone to destroy them.
3. Sharks.
This is overinformation. If I hadn't replaced Broken Base, this is the kind of thing that would be getting some suspicion from me, not trust. For a short explanation: If Scum is telling you how they play as Scum that is Wine. So it's useless.

Read the above. This was a bad read from Rosen, and a bad response to LDJ.
Unless you outright don't care about the game out of the gate (frankly you shouldn't even be playing if you don't imo) then I don't see any reason why you wouldn't try to elaborate this a little bit the first time around.
And that's a big hit on the scummy side of things.

Last game, Rosen was Town. He did a Random Question Stage and did some major backtracking later saying that maybe people wouldn't answer because they didn't care enough to. I'm getting kinda irritated remembering it, but this is a complete flip from last time, and not in the sense of improving playstyle. This is bad reasoning from Rosen, and I don't think I need to go into why it is bad reasoning this time either. (I can, but I don't feel like it right now)
To clarify a bit more, imo the chance of someone hopping on question answers is probably higher than you think it is (that's the whole reason I'm asking these questions in the first place), so it's just easier to save the trouble that comes with just not giving anything concrete.

What'd you expect me to do, ask these questions and then just do nothing with them afterward?
Ha. Ha. Ha. That was my laugh. I'm laughing at this. It's a joke.

Followup push for answers, good. Changing the question, bad. Refusing perfectly valid answers because you expect people to give more elaboration in their answers, despite having seen them not do that last time, very bad.

I'd say this case is pretty different; last game my lynch was caused over a fairly minor inconsistency being blown entirely out of proportion by scumteam, and Town just kinda rolling with it. I don't really see how the same thing could happen here.
*Whistles in Nictis*
Honestly didn't want to lynch you last time. You thinking you could read me made you useful.

But more seriously, you were lynched last time for a variety of inconsistencies and hypocrisies. I was hoping you would straighten out a bit so I could lynch someone else instead, but it just kept getting worse and I couldn't get off of the push on you because that was the kind of stuff that I tend to grab onto as Town and as Scum. Not going to get into it right now, but I can very loudly say that that ain't it Chief.

Annnd I got distracted and started reading the thread.

Screw it, I'm going back to sleep, might be able to grab a nap before work.

My reads from flitting about and the short progress I made on the Rosen ISO.

Rosen: Has claimed that they would change their playstyle, apparently that includes expectations. Realistically my highest scum read for the complete shift from and mockery of his last game. It's too much of a change in parts that shouldn't have moved, and is a lot easier for me to expect a scum flip to explain than anything else.
1K: My actual highest scumread, her interaction with Cyricubed and opening makes me paranoid. Everything else that I've seen from her is good so far though. Realistically a light Town read, my paranoia is telling me to watch out though.
LDJ: A slight Townread from their response to Rosen. Very slight because I've learned my lesson about trusting people who are fending off bad arguments from last game.
Interstellar Hobo: A slight scumread for the really bad timeline and explanations. It's not a fair one, but if I was working off of what they told me I would not be working off of good info. An insidious plot if there is one.

Everyone else I'm basically going off of the start for, so none of my reads really hold much weight here.
Broken Base: If it wasn't for getting her rolecard I'd be more heavily scumreading her. Mostly from the early response to Rosen, I don't see what Nani or Hobo were talking about for her being suspicious. (Except apparently for being talky, but I can't really agree with Nani on that being suspicious, considering that's just kinda how I am)
Meso: Probably who I'm going to vote for, I haven't really seen anything good from him and I haven't seen anything bad from Byzantine, so if we're still stuck in a tie when I wake up I'll probably place my vote there.

I can't really think of anything else, so I guess that's about it for my disappointing readslist. I'm usually better at this, I swear! :V
 
... I feel like I'm forgetting Nani, but I can't remember what I'm forgetting about him.
 
@Byzantine What do you think of things so far, I have been curious on how that much prereading would affect your reads. Can you explain your reasoning on Meso for me and if anyone else is popping out as suspicious to you?
A chaotic mess, basically. Rosen openly said they think a bad direction is better than no direction, so charged ahead with the questionnaire of pointless confusion again. It probably would have gotten him more lynch votes except he did the exact same thing last game as town. The prereading means I know I can't trust my reads of 1K, Rosen acts scummy via overaggression no matter what they are, you shouldn't be trusted farther than I can throw you, Cyric is good at deflecting attention off himself and his scum-team without it being obvious that's what he's doing. I never saw too much of QT's play, since he got smashed N1, which the host and observers lamented about being too common on the Discord. Naturally I haven't seen LD play, but the fatalism and "I'll be dead by D2" seems legit.

Meso wrote a few posts which used some pretty... creative statistical reasoning to decide it didn't seem very likely Oshha's slot was scum, while around the same time theorized some weak reasoning behind a me/BB/Rosen team. Normally this wouldn't mean much, but since he kept insisting there should be at least one scum out of the 4 people involved in the argument and he was eliminating one of them out of hand... well, it felt a lot like trying to set BB up for a D1 lynch and me for a future one. Maybe other people don't think in as twisty a way as I do about these things, but as I said earlier, Meso's behavior strike me as exactly the sort of thing I would try pulling as scum: Keeping a fight between town going without ever joining a side, while pushing the most dangerous person out.

It doesn't help that your slot is the one interacting with me the best since BB and now you are actually giving me something to work with.
 
[X] Lynch QTesseract

While Rosen remains my ideal lynch, I don't like QT's inactivity and prefer this lynch to any of the others.

When I got the time, I'm going to do a post on a few things that have alarm bells ringing for me.
 
Can't sleep, so meh.

[x] Lynch Rosen

Don't have time to finish reading up so I probably missed something, but between two new players and myself, I think I'd rather lynch Rosen. :V

Will pop back in in a few hours to see if I need to claim or not. I'd rather not on principle.
 
[X] Lynch Rosen

I'm still up for a Rosen lynch as they are my highest scum read right now with reasoning I'll give once I got the time to go over it in detail.
 
Actually, all of what IH is saying isn't actually telling me anything.

@InterstellarHobo @Nanimani I doubt I'm going to completely catch up before I leave. Explain why you're voting me.
Not all for now actually. By start of page 15, my current attitude is that Rosen and BB are really focusing hard on the same bit of what may be generously termed as slight evidence in two separate occasions.
That being said, the second person's defense against this pressure is, uh. Bad. But I'm not lynching a newbie on D1 for a bad defense. Isn't that basically the whole case against Rosen last game? (Also not voting for Rosen because seriously, that last D1 was bad for him, and I'm not interested in making it a pattern.)


You and Rosen are essentially in like 80% control of town's voice, made more effective in doing so by the fact that you're pretty much always aligned in your thoughts and poking flaws in theories that involve the other as scummates. This impression isn't helped by the fact that your arguments are, in general, rather unconvincing to me and carried mostly by your ability to present them in terms of getting more people behind them. Like, seriously? Not having strong reads by the second day of D1 is very suspicious?

I'm actually a fan of people going after others hard. It's why I'm so easily swept up in Nictis's pace. But the reasons I saw for both Daw and 1K's pushes were bad, the two of Rosen and BB were way too in-synch and controlling town with said pushes, and kinda sideswiped away accusations against the other. Not like, big arguments, but like they're not worthy of being mentioned.
 
Two things:

How do people feel about a No Lynch today? I don't know enough about the gamestate to say if it's a good idea or not today since I'm on like, page nine or ten.
And
Nani, could I ask for some quotes on what the issue is? I don't see the alignment between BB and Rosen that you did because I'm not there yet, so all I can really get from that is that Rosen and BB were posting a lot. I had checked around the votes and saw those posts, they just didn't actually tell me what the issue is or point at it.
 
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