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Storm Trooper Mafia

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Byzantine said:
I never said you didn't say that. I said you said that was unlikely and then kept speculating.


No, you didn't. You quoted a fraction of them.
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Anyone who wants can read the posts and see what I wrote. It was very indeterminate speculation. I didn't say what was true, I eliminated what seemed like unlikely possibilities. I didn't recommend lynching anybody and I pointed out possible town readings were available for everyone.

Those are the only posts where I speculated about those four players possible roles. Every other mention was a debate over whether probabilities were part of good play or whether I did my math right. (I didn't, by the way, I thought there were 12 players instead of 13.)

I quoted them in their entirety. For some reason (probably putting them behind a spoiler) they don't have the "expand" button. I'll post them here shortly.
 
Here they are:
mesonoxian said:
If Dawiusz does get lynched and flips scum, I think that strongly suggests Rosen, Broken Base, and Byzantine are all town. I think that is a pretty unlikely outcome, however. And a town flip provides very little information, since there are consistent town reads for each of them with a town Dawiusz. (Including all four are town and this is internecine bickering, though there is only about a 1/5 chance of that assuming a random distribution of 3 scum slots among 11 potential scum players.)

Not really actionable, just a thought.
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mesonoxian said:
Thinking further on this group of four (Dawiusz, Byzantine, -Rosen, and Broken Base).

I don't think -Rosen makes since as the only scum in this grouping. If they are scum and everybody else is town, it seems way more logical to push for a mislynch of Broken Base, as they'd be by far the most experienced and proven town player in the set of possible targets. If they were scum, I think they'd have to be on team with Broken Base or Byzantine for their actions to make sense. Of course, a town read makes just as much sense, even if either or both of those two are scum.

I think it is quite unlikely Broken Base is the only scum in this grouping of four. They've drawn way too much attention unless they are protecting a team mate. So if BB is scum, I suspect Byzantine is, too.

Scum Byzantine is entirely compatible with everyone else being town. Town Byzantine strongly suggests Town Broken Base, to me. I don't think scum Broken Base would have had any good reason to switch votes between two different townies. I could be wrong, and that may have been an intentional choice in order to look less like they were railroading their first choice, but I feel like that is an unlikely strategy.

Byzantine being scummy seems compatible with the most other possible configurations, but only very slightly more than them as town. Dawiusz being scum seems less likely just because all three of the others would probably be town in that case, which is only about 1/3 odds.
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mesonoxian said:
The probability thing was a very minor element about why I thought Dawiusz was probably not scum.

To boil it down to basics, Dawiusz made a push against Byzantine. Broken Base initially went along with that push, then switched to targeting Dawiusz, saying he was trying to cause a mislynch of Byzantine which got several people on board to lynch Dawiusz.

I suggested Broken Base could be on a scum team with Byzantine, initially going along with his lynch for purposes of distancing herself from Byzantine. That prompted Rosen to step in to defend Broken Base, saying that this was too obviously scummy, and that Scum!BB wouldn't make such an obvious move.

Dawiusz and I both pretty much simultaneously suggested the possibility of Rosen and Broken Base being on a team.

I thought, given their interactions, there is basically no chance Dawiusz in on a scum team with any of Rosen, Byzantine, or Broken Base. I also think if Rosen is scum, she must be on a team with one or both of Byzantine and Broken Base. (Because I think scum!Rosen would have taken the opportunity to try to remove town!BB given that opportunity, not defended her.)
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Also I didn't think about it at the time, but how does this follow?

You're saying my interaction with BB might be distancing, but then you immediately say that Daw couldn't be on a team with any of us... despite the interactions not being particularly different from my point of view. The only difference I saw was Daw did a worse job defending himself, but that could easily have been an act, and as history shows the wagon dissolved basically as soon as QT pointed out scum-buddies shouldn't be letting Daw act like that.

mesonoxian said:
Those are the only posts where I speculated about those four players possible roles. Every other mention was a debate over whether probabilities were part of good play or whether I did my math right. (I didn't, by the way, I thought there were 12 players instead of 13.)
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Yes, I know, I'm the one who corrected you. :rolleyes:

mesonoxian said:
Here they are:
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Yes, I linked them above. The last line of the second post is what made me do a double take. That's just bad analysis.

I may have mentally overblown it, though, since I was at a complete loss as to any alignments beyond my own.
 
Byzantine said:
The problem is identically distributed probability doesn't make sense - scum have a distinct motive to behave somewhat differently than Town. To me what you are doing feels the scummiest - wait for a significant Town v Town fight, then try to shift it against the most dangerous player involved, but stay out of it yourself. ...That's actually exactly the thing Daw did that started the entire mess with him; he shoved the first wagon without actually jumping on it. Mind you it would not shock me if one of the other three were scum, but statistical arguments are useless here.
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Quoting myself to prove I really was thinking this way all along.
 
@Byzantine, would it be correct to say that your entire scumread of mesonexonian is predicated on his (mis?)use of probabilities?
If not, can you attempt to summarize the arguments which aren't predicated on that?
 
Byzantine said:
Quoting myself to prove I really was thinking this way all along.
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I don't deny you had a problem with using probabilities. What I am denying is that these were used to support my speculation that you and BB were scum. I proposed that earlier, then I attempted to do an entirely neutral analysis of your interactions with each other, which I point out several times don't directly support my speculation and have other interpretations. That's why I object to your claims I was using statistics to "gaslight" people into lynching you or BB.

Byzantine said:
Also I didn't think about it at the time, but how does this follow?

You're saying my interaction with BB might be distancing, but then you immediately say that Daw couldn't be on a team with any of us... despite the interactions not being particularly different from my point of view. The only difference I saw was Daw did a worse job defending himself, but that could easily have been an act, and as history shows the wagon dissolved basically as soon as QT pointed out scum-buddies shouldn't be letting Daw act like that.
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Because Dawiusz was trying very hard to provide (in my opinion badly flawed) scum reads against you and carried on trying to make his arguments against Broken Base and Rosen in ways that just seemed like authentic newbie flailing rather than something that experienced scum would cook up to distance themselves. Meanwhile, Broken Bases grounds for voting for you consisted solely of saying your entrance was "tonally off" which is as close to no reason at all as I think you can get. Tone can be an argument, but she didn't make one. She just said it was off, voted you, then shifted away to supporting a lynch against Dawiusz, before dropping that a bit later when speculations about her distancing herself by supporting your lynch happened and Dawiusz continuing to spin out in a very authentic manner.

I could be wrong, but if we assume every read might be excellent acting from a newbie scum player then we quickly wind up in wine country.


I don't think there is any reasonable way to read my posts as trying to railroad anybody. I laid out what I think were some useful observations for a few reasons.

First off, so anybody who saw a mistake could call out my reasoning and keep me from missing something important. Second so that town would have whatever observations I made to consider, and thirdly to try to maximize the value of any town investigative roles by identifying likely and unlikely scum combinations.

I don't have a QT to consult with, so if I want feedback or to let other people know what I am thinking, I have to put it in the thread.
 
To be clear, I offered a scum read on you, -Rosen, and Broken Base which I stated was weak and a speculation. I also mentioned probabilities briefly in my analysis of your interactions. These were separate events.
 
Here is the post where I made my speculation. Note the lack of probability based arguments and the caveats about the weakness of the evidence:

mesonoxian said:
I agree with @1KBestK with regards to @-Rosen . Apparently this is just their play style, but it does feel very scummy to me, and I don't think it generates much value for town, but once I put my bias against Rosen's playstyle aside, I don't see anything solid to make a scum read on beyond that nebulous feeling of scumminess. And last time that went poorly.

I don't think @Byzantine really made a scum slip with their "I did". It seems like a perfectly normal response to such an accusation, scum or town. But not having made a scum slip doesn't necessarily mean you're town either. @Broken Base voted against Byzantine very quickly and citingvery little evidence. (Basically just saying their entrance was "tonally off") and then switched to his accuser. Which seems like a natural distancing technique if they are both on a scum team.

Rosen's "defense" of Broken Base is that this would be too transparent too early for a good scum player. That seems pretty weak to me. "This looks scummy, but scum are too smart to do something that looks so scummy". That's straight up WIFOM thinking.

So maybe it is like this. Byzantine is scum. There are only three scum so they can't possibly afford to lose one Day 1. So his scum buddy Broken Base pretends to go along with his lynching, and then "changes their mind" and goes after the player who spotted them in the first place. But -Rosen is right, this does seem like a pretty obvious ploy. So as the third member of the scum team, they come out and point out that it is a really bad scum play and thus they must both be town.

It's a read, though admittedly it is entirely speculative and this early in the game, almost certainly wrong. But it is something I'll keep in mind.

Right now I am leaning towards a vote against Broken Base, but I am nowhere near certain enough to put out a vote in a hammer game at this point.


[Dalek Voice]Explain! Explain![/Dalek Voice]
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This is what @Byzantine is attempting to conflate with my later analysis which occurred two pages later.
 
mesonoxian said:
I don't have a QT to consult with, so if I want feedback or to let other people know what I am thinking, I have to put it in the thread.
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I think this might be the actual disconnect. To me it's almost always better to just shut up if you only have speculation with no evidence to wean it down, because pure speculation is easily abused. Particularly by scum, who know more.

mesonoxian said:
To be clear, I offered a scum read on you, -Rosen, and Broken Base which I stated was weak and a speculation. I also mentioned probabilities briefly in my analysis of your interactions. These were separate events.
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Nothing is separate. That's the entire point of day 1 interactions, instead of just skipping it. You posted the conclusion then went through the probabilities to support that conclusion. It seems a lot like someone trying to strengthen an argument they know is too weak to convince anyone, but who doesn't have a solid reason they can share for why.
 
EBWOP: The "I did" I mention is the basis for an earlier, bad scum read on Byzantine. They were accused of having made a pre-game scum slip (which wasn't one) and responded with "I did?". Dawiusz believed this was another scum slip since, presumably, a townie would have denied being scum and thus able to scum slip. I think that is a perfectly normal response even if you are town. If someone told me I'd scumslipped I'd probably have said something similar.

Byzantine said:
I think this might be the actual disconnect. To me it's almost always better to just shut up if you only have speculation with no evidence to wean it down, because pure speculation is easily abused. Particularly by scum, who know more.


Nothing is separate. That's the entire point of day 1 interactions, instead of just skipping it. You posted the conclusion then went through the probabilities to support that conclusion. It seems a lot like someone trying to strengthen an argument they know is too weak to convince anyone, but who doesn't have a solid reason they can share for why.
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No, I didn't. Please actually read the posts! The first one is speculation. The latter ones are analysis. If I were going to try to support my argument with them, I would have left out all the caveats about possible town reads. When you're pushing a lie, you should generally leave out things that contradict your narrative. If you're trying to share accurate information, you do the opposite. I never attempted to use those probabilities to support my speculation. At this point I think I have established that and nobody is going to be deceived about it.

The probabilities were a minor part of my thinking about what scum teams could be likely ruled out. The fact you keep trying to make them into a huge part of a push against you is very scummy.
 
One more thing real quick.

I have a surprise work shift tomorrow, and it is in a place without internet, so I won't even be able to dip in at end of day most likely. I'm about to head to bed. Depending on when I wake up, I may or may not have a chance to be on again before EoD.

Please, actually read the posts in question when deciding your vote, they are being misrepresented.

If I do wind up out of the game before start of next day, when I flip town, I'd like it if people could look over these interactions and consider them when voting in future. I really don't think this is town v. town at this point.

Have a good night all, and hopefully I will see you tomorrow!
 
Okay so.

Speculation and analysis are inherently two completely separate things, however there is such thing as analysis based on speculation, and vice versa. If anything, these two concepts can be both independent AND dependent of each other, so I don't see how meso's speculation and analyses are AI in any way, considering there aren't really any glaring contradictions within them, from what I've seen.

That leads me to believe that this conversation is a big nothingburger to try and push a scum!meso narrative, in which Byzantine has been the primary proponent pushing it. Frankly I don't believe it to be the truth in the slightest. So at this point we're left with the question of whether this is T/T, T/S, or S/S. Honestly I don't see any possible way this could be a S/S interaction between meso and Byzantine, considering this whole thing has been rather one-sided, with no really manufactured-looking retorts from either side. T/T I see as a bit more likely, but I can't shake the feeling that Byzantine has some kind of malicious intent in pushing on meso this hard. Maybe it's the possible TMI that I pointed out earlier, but the feeling is definitely there. As for T/S, I feel like 99 times out of 100 Byzantine ends up the S, whereas Byzantine is just Town.

Regardless of the result, mexonoxian is currently my strongest Town read at this point based on this conversation, and Byzantine is my strongest Scum read.
 
-Rosen said:
T/T I see as a bit more likely, but I can't shake the feeling that Byzantine has some kind of malicious intent in pushing on meso this hard.
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This is me pushing Meso hard? Huh?

I made a post and have been defending myself since. Frankly the way he responded made me instantly dig my heels in because that is not how I read his posts at all. But whatever, I'm apparently shit at defending myself.
 
Is Byzantine a newbie? I don't recognise them, but I can't remember if they are new or a returning vet.
 
Oshha said:
Is Byzantine a newbie? I don't recognise them, but I can't remember if they are new or a returning vet.
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First game ever. People seem to keep reading past the "I have no idea what I am doing." thinking I'm trying to be funny or misleading. I'm not.

I screwed up, though I couldn't tell you how because I still read Meso's post as trying to nudge people into following the conclusions while still keeping some distance from there. But that may just me being really paranoid over the wrong things. Or sleep deprived.
 
Not happy with the D1 lynching of a newbie at all.

[X] Lynch mesonoxian

Updated read list.
Rosen = Lean scum.
Mesonoxian = Lean scum.
InterstellarHobo = Lean scum.
BB/Nictis = Tentative lean town.
1k = Tentative Town lean.
Everyone else is neutral.

I do not like how a group of players are all going after someone on their first game on day one especially since Byzantine hasn't done anything egregious scummy from what I can tell. Even if it isn't scummy, it is most certainly unsporting.
 
That's fair.
I will note that this is (functionally) me and Meso's second games, so it's not like we have a wealth of experience on Byzantine.
 
I should clarify that with my vote, I am happy with either Rosen, Meso or Hobo getting lynched, but since Meso has the best chances right now, I'm going for them.

Given how things work on the SV mafia scene, this sudden departure from the usual treatment of newbies is ringing alarm bells and I don't like it at all.
 
InterstellarHobo said:
I will note that this is (functionally) me and Meso's second games, so it's not like we have a wealth of experience on Byzantine.
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That's fair. I just recognised your names from Game of Crowns so I figured you had more experience. I am willingly to switch back to Rosen as the vet who should certainly know better, but whilst Byzantine is up for the lynch for no good reason and there is this abnormal treatment of a newbie going on, I'm sticking to Meso even if I'm not particularly happy about that lynch.

Anyway, this going after Byzantine by Rosen plus their earlier comments by Rosen about being how they are going to continue being chaotic and disruptive in their play style has me believing that whatever their mechanical alignment, Rosen is anti-town at best.
 
It should be noted every wagon this game except BB was of a noob. Because we have a lot of noob.

Myself, IH, Meso, Tykan, and Daw (the guy you subbed for Oshha, and he took events so badly he quit and decided he wasn't cut out for it.) are all new(ish). 5/13 people is kinda a lot. Particularly when getting QT, Cyric, Comi to speak day 1 is like pulling teeth.
 
Not wanting to D1 lynch someone because they're newer is bullshit btw. Nobody should be exempt from the lynch unless they're functionally confirmed in game.
 
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