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She-ra Lost Hope

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Hey Shalmoa, run the numbers for me real quick? I can't recall who all is dead. If we hit scum today we're still in MyLo tomorrow?
 
Zone stock is at the center of the earth now, Shal stock is surprisingly rising in light of that. I don't think this incoherence from Zone would be occurring in a S/S world between those two.
 
But yeah this mindset from Zone feels a lot like scrambling to force your supposed scum PoE to be large enough to exclude yourself while also not just killing your whole team.

At least, that's how it feels to me.
 
So at this point I'm probably fine with killing Zone today, which would leave my headspace as follows in Scum!Zone world

Zaealix

Cyricubed
NemoMarx

Shalmoa
Seven

Top being lock-Scum, bottom being lock-Town, leaving my thoughts between Cyri and Nemo in the middle, which is admittedly an incredibly tough read for where I'm at right now. Definitely would like to go back and see if I can find anything that could form a case for one of them moving forward though.
 
-Rosen said:
So at this point I'm probably fine with killing Zone today, which would leave my headspace as follows in Scum!Zone world

Zaealix

Cyricubed
NemoMarx

Shalmoa
Seven

Top being lock-Scum, bottom being lock-Town, leaving my thoughts between Cyri and Nemo in the middle, which is admittedly an incredibly tough read for where I'm at right now. Definitely would like to go back and see if I can find anything that could form a case for one of them moving forward though.
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And here is where you lose me. Cyricubed is super pure here, particularly in a Scum!Zaealix world.
 
I don't see scum!Nemo, especially if you consider me locktown on a scum!Zone flip and she doesn't daykill me.
 
-Rosen said:
The problem is that Nemo can't kill you in Scum!Zone world. It would immediately out her as also scum, so it's no longer AI.
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I mean... you can say that but that actually makes it NAI. I was also going to argue for it being NAI, but in the other direction:

She probably needs to declare her daykill before the flip. And while Zone's stock is pretty low, it isn't impossible that this is just a super elaborate bus (not sure what the supposed strategy here is, but that'd be a thing for scum!Nemo to clarify tomorrow). So it's not completely unreasonable to daykill me anyways under the thought of me being super powerwolfy.

I agree that it'd be hard to get out of, but it's not like it's a completely untenable strategy, and it is an extra one-shot kill which scum really needs if we just got a complete solve.
 
Hmm, I suppose it would still come down to LyLo if Nemo were to shoot here.

Presuming we get Scum!Zone flip, along with Town!Shalmoa flip from Nemo's kill, we get left with a kill on Seven for being the only true lock-Town left, at which point we're left with Zaealix, Cyricubed, NemoMarx, Scia, and myself.

At that point, we're at a 3-2 situation, in which case we spend the day doing what we can to try to formulate the third, but inevitably kill Zaealix because that's where the lock-Scum slot is. Cyricubed probably dies at that point due to being the absolute back of the PoE (I wouldn't consider myself to be in that position at this point given the general sentiment toward his slot), leaving the game at F3 between NemoMarx, Scia, and myself.

I think it's possible that I get axed before that point, but probably unlikely since scum wouldn't want to risk me getting a free wall of text out that late in the game, even if it has a chance to go to scum and go unshared in the end.

With that in mind, I'd like to try to gather opinions from @Nictis @Shalmoa @Seven on who they think ends up being the scum in F3 here. I'll open the question to @Cyricubed @NemoMarx @Scia as well to account for scenarios where their slots are interchanged in F3, since there is still room for changes to occur to the game state between now and then, causing any one of them to potentially not be in F3.

Additionally, if there are any potential worlds that anyone can see that don't involve this course of events, then feel free to share since this mostly comes from a place where I'm trying to make sense of everything around me again, and this is the best I could come up with.
 
Also sorry if that came as a bit of a jumbled mess of a post in any way, current headspace is very disoriented now so I'm trying as best as I can to make sense of it again.
 
Zaea/Cyri/Nemo/Scia/-Rosen -> Three of Cyri/Nemo/Scia/-Rosen

Personally, the odd part that isn't explained here to me is the N1 kill on OriginalName. I don't see that mindset from Zone, I think Zaea would focus Nictis or you more, and so...

Cyricubed: My gut says it's possible, but I don't feel like it's the truth.
NemoMarx: I don't think this is the case.
Scia: Possibly? It felt sorta disconnected from the details of the game state in the right way that I could see it possibly coming from Scia's PoV?
-Rosen: This is a kill I'd feel comfortable ascribing to you, but I also feel like your play is reasonably genuine?

Nemo probably survives, because it's easy to argue that killing me and pushing us to LyLo is scummy.
Scia probably survives, because if she's town she's fairly low-hanging fruit in the final 3.
-Rosen probably survives, because your position isn't exactly peachy either IMO?
Cyricubed, by PoE, probably dies -- but this analysis is also exactly why Cyri should survive in this scenario. However, it's much more likely to backfire for FPS/wine than killing Cyri would. So, yeah.

Nemo/Scia/-Rosen is probably the F3 in this scenario, and I think -Rosen's team wins it?
 
You know we could make this easier by just telling Nemo to not shoot outright now that I think about it. We remove the needless arguments of whether Town!Nemo or Scum!Nemo would benefit from doing this and remove the LyLo situation in favor of MyLo, if only temporarily since we do have one sleep vote that we could use if desperate.
 
-Rosen said:
You know we could make this easier by just telling Nemo to not shoot outright now that I think about it. We remove the needless arguments of whether Town!Nemo or Scum!Nemo would benefit from doing this and remove the LyLo situation in favor of MyLo, if only temporarily since we do have one sleep vote that we could use if desperate.
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Doing so would also make a far stronger case in a Scum!Nemo world if this direction were to simply be ignored.
 
Nictis said:
Really? Nothing you can get from it? And Day 3 is just inconclusive because of Seven wanting to use the ability to bring me back to life? Are you forgetting that the wagons were between Shalmoa and Zaealix before that? And the only person voting outside of that was you?
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Yep. I got nothing.

In fact, let me help everyone reach the ending of this day sooner:

[X] Vote Zone Q11
 
Anybody who adds to this vote count any sooner than EoD is scum I will not be taking replies at this time.
 
Honestly @Scia: Time to start thinking about how to survive final 3. If you can claim something, the game is starting to get very locked down unless Zone actually flips town.
 
Nictis said:
And here is where you lose me. Cyricubed is super pure here, particularly in a Scum!Zaealix world.
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I'm actually not sold on Cyri town. His reaction to the Ori death doesn't seem authentic to me (as pointed out here). It's not necessarily the surprise to the ori death, but the reasoning. The assumptions aren't justified, and it comes off to me as when a bad guy wants to display ignorance of the bad thing but ends up overcompensating. I'm not familiar with the meta here though. Do you think the reasoning is sound?
 
-Rosen said:
Zone stock is at the center of the earth now, Shal stock is surprisingly rising in light of that. I don't think this incoherence from Zone would be occurring in a S/S world between those two.
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Keep in mind this too. I think Zae spews Shal town here. If he were bussing, I don't think he'd use the wording "clear out the mess, wipe the board and hope next day phase Scum drops a tell somewhere now that Town's plate is clean." It's like he was unconsciously working under the presumption that Shal wouldn't flip mafia. And I think if he were bussing he wouldn't have been so overtly hedging.
 
Seven said:
I'm actually not sold on Cyri town. His reaction to the Ori death doesn't seem authentic to me (as pointed out here). It's not necessarily the surprise to the ori death, but the reasoning. The assumptions aren't justified, and it comes off to me as when a bad guy wants to display ignorance of the bad thing but ends up overcompensating. I'm not familiar with the meta here though. Do you think the reasoning is sound?
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Like and this line: "now that I could go over everything without additional added I enjoyed their content."

Why was this mentioned? It just seems like unnecessary throwaway commentary (what we call on my site, active lurky).
 
Seven said:
I'm actually not sold on Cyri town. His reaction to the Ori death doesn't seem authentic to me (as pointed out here). It's not necessarily the surprise to the ori death, but the reasoning. The assumptions aren't justified, and it comes off to me as when a bad guy wants to display ignorance of the bad thing but ends up overcompensating. I'm not familiar with the meta here though. Do you think the reasoning is sound?
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How would you order your PoE between Cyri/Scia/Nemo/Myself?
 
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