You call back to the witches game
And the JoJo game, specifically because of the similarity in setup and how it was 3v3 in scum. We can talk all day about the issues in the Witches game (Low amounts of scum, with crossfire, with a Vigilante Neighborhood makes for incredibly frail scum) but I don't think trying to argue that the game we both acknowledge as flawed to be very good at supporting your argument here. Also, I only mentioned it in reference to
you bringing it up, and I mention another game where it
wasn't 3v3 and you ignore that. I'll quote the relevant bits here.
So, lets get some discussion going. This games was designed for 18 players; It would be very unfair to add an extra scum as the 19th player, so for game balance purposes we should coutn scum as though there were only 18 in a game. This doesn't rule out cakestepid being scum, but it menas that the game wasn't balanced with 19 players in mind.
So.
Out of 18 players, at most 4 can be scum, realistically. They probably also aren't all on one team; the exceptions for this would be if they are very weak, or if town is very strong, so I wouldn't give that much credence unless you are a very powerful town role or have reason to suspect that we have one.
My personal suspicion would be 3:1 scum, with at most 3 and more likely 2 or fewer third parties such as executioners, survivors, etc.
This seems somewhat supported in flavor by there being both missing people and those that are "withered corpses, brutally beaten, and riddled with gashing wounds" but the narration doesn't make it explicit that those are two different forces at work so I can't rule it out entirely.
Here's what I took note of, the idea you were pushing that Scum was,
at most, four people. Not "Likely" four people, not "four people, minimum" but at most. You hint that you expect there to just be three members of scum with those numbers as well.
Not necessarily, we could be looking at two competing low powered scum groups of three as well, although I will say that I mostly agree with your assessment. This bit just seemed odd considering the common range being 1 in 4 to 1 in 3 for scum ratios.
I gave an alternative idea, one that's been done before in numbers like this. I don't say "Scum are one third of the game" I point out that the usual rate is between 1 in 4 and 1 in 3.
One third being scum? I don't buy it.
You claimed that in witches as well, and it doesn't make much more sense here than there. I'd be much more willing to buy a very weak 4 and a 1 man SK, but even that seems like a stretch and would probably rule out any third parties.
Broken Base said:
That really feels like lowballing to me, especially if you want to argue that there is more than a single faction.
How so? A group of 4 is really, really strong, even with just a basic kill. A group of 5 in this setup would be basically unwinnable for all but the absolute strongest town, and even that would have me raising an eyebrow. Two groups of three would be nearly as bad, and a group of 3 and one of 2 is never something I've seen on SV before.
Here's you bringing up Witches, and completely ignoring that I was
not saying that one third of the game is scum.
One third being scum is a common number for Mafia. Admittedly more for smaller setups, but it isn't exactly a stretch of the imagination. Competing Scum make it more likely because the Scum have something that can thin their numbers by bad luck or by intent. I had said I largely agreed with your idea of it, but saying that at most four can be scum is... Interesting. That's less than a quarter of the people involved, and if we're looking at three mafia and a serial killer then it's less likely because they can knock each other out. If we're looking at Two and Two... It's blatantly unfair for scum. As can be seen in Twisted Miasma. Three and Three can be seen in the JoJo game, where wow, it worked out.
Multiple competing scum factions changes the numbers, same thing I was saying in the Witches game. Except, y'know, I was specifically pointing at the exact two members of scum the entire time. And at the time, what you were arguing for could be obviously pointed at as flawed by how it worked out the first goddamn Night.
Also: Why the hell do you keep insisting on bringing up the time when you pissed me off? Like, seriously. I'm about to go eat dinner with my mother for her birthday, and I have to be up early tomorrow, so you probably won't see me for a bit after this.
No. I'm done talking about the fucking Witches game. If you want to keep trying to say that Scum are less than a quarter of the game, go ahead. I am going to blatantly ignore it because it's at best poisoning the well.
And here's my only mention of it. I
only mention it as reason for why such fragile scum setups aren't usually done, and bring up an example that supports what I'm saying, while you're trying to use the Witches game to justify your bad call. "This game where there were two teams of two scum that almost entirely wiped each other out
night one is a perfect example for why two groups of two is the best number for scum!"
Anyways, if this is me "Shutting down discussion" by not wanting to be constantly reminded about that time you repeatedly lied about what I said, thought, and was doing...
Fuck, I wish I didn't have this headache. It's making me more irritable.
Back on topic.
Relevancy of the Witches game: It is a game with two sets of two scum, in a similarly numbered game. I'll do a short list of issues with it so we don't have to retread it repeatedly. Unkillable Vigilante. Pointless Roleblocker. Roles cannot be removed. Both scumgroups were equipped with ways to survive attack and ways to bypass those ways to survive. Could be mapped out. Scumgroups unable to survive after losing a member. All investigations are shared with multiple people so they can't be doubted. Scum were explicitly given ways to cancel/bypass/trick the powers of whatever group they are in.
This isn't even the problem with witches, either; the problem wasn't that we lost two scum roles day one. I didn't like the odds after that, but that was fundamentally an issue I could overcome. The problem was that the game setup gave away the scum, not that scum were under powered.
I agree! That is in fact one of the biggest issues of the game!
When you talk about how "2v2 scum can crossfire where 4v4 can't," you're correct insofar as a 4 man scum team is more reliable, but not insofar as its stronger. A 2&2 scum team is more swingy, not weaker.
I.. what? No, this is not what I was saying. I was very much talking about how quickly that can go wrong for scum if
literally anything happens to them, and having more factors that can go wrong for them (Scum Crossfire) is part of the issue. Like, Swing is the issue, but there's no real guarantee that they're stronger here?
No, hang on. I'm confused. I'll get back to this if I figure out what the hell you're trying to do and it isn't just "Twist what Nictis is saying into the opposite of what he's been saying." Like, I didn't say 4v4 couldn't crossfire... I said it was more likely for them to crossfire, but it was also less crippling if they do.
The more opposing scum there are, the more likely they are to kill each other off. Having really small numbers of opposing scum is bad for the scum because bad luck in who is targeted will completely screw them over. (2V2scumV14town turns into 1V2V12, and then that one is screwed, or 1V1V13, or 0V1V14. Two and Two scum doesn't work) Bigger numbers lets them soak an unlucky hit and have a chance of recovery (3V3V12 is fair. The only issue is if they never hit each other, and Town never prevents a kill)
You're not bringing up Terrabrand's point here that they can be balanced in a way that they
won't crossfire (Specific Immunities), you're just saying that I'm saying something I'm not.
It's easier for such a setup to fall apart due to crossfire, yes, but it's also easier for town to quickly fall apart and lose its most valuable members under 2 kills a night and whatever extra power roles they have. To give an example of this in action, look at Moonton, which doesn't perfectly map but follows the same "2 nightkills, competing scum" pattern, and see how quickly things deteriorated for town. The more nightkills you have, the further away from the precepice your expected case has to be, because the bell curve is way wider.
... Yeah? I'm not really seeing what about this says that scum have to be four people max, or that three and three is impossible? Like, fuck. All you're saying here is that more kills=quicker games and aren't really bothering to look at how that works out? I don't really know what to say here, because it doesn't seem relevant in any way to me? What you're saying is that two groups of scum can kill people faster than one group can, which is true, and that smaller groups of scum can be killed faster than larger groups can, which is also true, and that that means there has to be fewer scum?
As the person who was talking about that last game... you have no idea what we were talking about.
The idea of scum wanting town to think their strong was true because there was internal town crossfire. Without the racial disputes, demons wouldn't have had any skin in the game whatsoever.
This is a response to a single throwaway line in my post, that I honestly added when looking over the post because I found it worth mentioning. It also still feels unrelated.
Here's the best for what I can see it as a response to.
What was it y'all were saying last game about who wants Town to feel secure and like scum aren't a threat again?
Damn, I'm honestly just baffled at this. I blame the headache.
Okay, so since I really can't figure out what the hell I should be saying in response to that, I'm going to look at the rest of that post, which you apparently didn't see the need to respond to.
Good point, but I personally feel that scumgroups of two people is still too fragile for any game larger than eight or so people. For example, CW's Magical Mafia almost had scum lynched Day One, and even ignoring the other questionable design choices there I had to go all in to save them just because being brought down to a single person as scum Day 1 is ruinous. Bad luck can still screw them over, and having competing scum means there's nonTown that might be willing to sell them out for Town Cred.
Also, kill immunity for scum is ridiculously powerful in most cases and completely worthless in others. For example, a fairly common scum power is bypassing kill immunity, and a fairly common Town power is the Vigilante, and quite frankly I'm pretty sure TMR is doing some really heavy hinting that leads to one of the two being true. (Or that he's scum. Honestly leaning towards that, but not assuming it)
QT was trying to suggest that at most Scum is either less than 25% of the design (realistically, I mean, anything more than a fifth is just not workable) or that they are weak scum, which is... Interesting. What was it y'all were saying last game about who wants Town to feel secure and like scum aren't a threat again?
But yeah, Two and Two scum is horrific in most situations because of bad luck, even if you give the leaders kill immunity (And no Strongman) the second could still get hit. And there's still just bad luck in who gets lynched at the start. In a game this big, it should take work from the Town to remove Scum.
Alright, now to actually get up...
This all feels like some pretty good stuff to respond to, and it was completely ignored in favor of saying that I don't know what was being talked about last game, specifically the stuff that was the main reason for me being lynched. Like...???
I don't know what to take from that comment either, is it that the scum only ever benefit from being seen as less of a threat when they
know that there is infighting?
I'm confused and my head hurts, so I'm going to end it right about here.
I'm sorry you think so, but I'm not willing to ignore all the evidence that you're wrong when its actually game relevant to demonstrate the falsehood of positive claims.
This is worrying. This is saying that I'm trying to make a positive claim, when they're the one saying that there is at most four scum. This is ignoring the very relevant example of
The Fame Monster for why more scum is possible while claiming that
Witches is definite proof that I'm wrong.
Like...
@Terrabrand Would you say that any of your games proves what scum have to be in here?
