- Pronouns
- She/Her
Okay, so to answer @-Rosen's request, lemme take the last ten minutes of D2 in painful detail and hopefully get something out of it, omitting only posts I think are pure noise no matter how you look at it.
So, what do I get from that excessive exercise?
IH and Ondine look good. Everyone else looks scummy AF, except Pawn whose actions are consistent, but, well, we know Pawn's scum. In particular, -Rosen mostly acted to build confusion in a tense moment and very few worked against this. Given that D1's ending very slightly early was specifically invoked, the buzzer beater here is simply unforgivable. Everyone who didn't vote at all looks doubly suspicious, though mostly those who also didn't vote D1.
If I had to think of someone that looks to be hurting town, while also striking a balance without losing town cred, that's -Rosen far more than Meso who wasn't very active until literally the last seconds, when past experience taught us the day may already have ended and this kind of last second cred ploy would just flop and probably draw ire if day had ended early. Second place would be Narcotic I don't think wanting a Pawn response is unusual given the phone bit.
But really, my inclination is less that this was a plan and more that everyone was mostly just actually panicked and confused, which I think makes sense if at least some scum are just doing literally nothing.
Like, even if these players aren't scum, Nictis almost flipped the last game from an insanely bad position just based on leaving incredibly inactive players as shields until the end and then pushing them all as scum.
WALLLLS]
7:51
Ondine puts pressure on Pawn here, and suggests QT disclose. We know now that this is town. QT still refuses to disclose, which may be a conversation worth revisiting near EoD today?
7:52
-Rosen mentions waiting for a vote to see if Pawn responds. I don't like pushing it even later in general, since there's no real time at this point to reevaluate even if Pawn does respond, and all this does is make for a more panicked EoD, but I'll get back to this a bit later.
Something to remember is that D1 ended 2 minutes early (afaict), and the precedent that sets makes all the last minute play even worse.
7:53
Narcotic seconds this, but also suggests that no better option is likely to appear. Looks slightly towny.
Nictis puts a vote on Pawn, putting more pressure.
Pawn finally responds, notably pretty late despite having lurked for a while. I'm not sure if this is partially intentional to confuse things or scrape by in a last minute panic by offering some defense however thin, or just actual timing on a phone at EoD. Regardless, we know Pawn was scum, and we know Ondine and Nictis are town, so the only real fodder here is the description on Byzantine. If anything, Pawn's distancing from Byzantine here. There's many reasons why Pawn might do this, but I think it favors a scummy Byzantine at least slightly.
7:54
QT hammers in the time left being short. Mostly NAI, plausibly meant to be posted before Pawn responded given how close these were.
Pyrros posts to note that there's no time to respond to an earlier claim from Wiadi, again. Said request is answered later here so I think this is mostly NAI, though it does avoid the need to comment on Pawn either way which might be intentional.
Pawn posts to emphasize the difficulty of defending oneself on a phone. Both a bit sad and probably an appeal to emotions to scrape by.
Nictis complains about D1 ending nearly 2m early. This is important, since people should be aware of the possibility if they've seen this post, so indecision hardcore favors scum at this point.
7:55
This is where things start to get really messy.
-Rosen follows by noting that Itz/1K and/or anyone else is his preferred alternative if we ignore Pawn. Scummy imo, since casting confusion at the last second really serves the goal of a no lynch over anything. But also plausibly just actual panic.
Nictis swaps to no lynch, a very very bad play, out of a dislike of the options available due to UM being away and little read on me.
7:56
Byzantine freaks out about a tie, emphasizing the probability and that it's bad. This also fosters panic, and Byzantine is still on Nictis which is DOA at this point, so scummy because Byzantine could actually be doing something here to avert this instead of bolstering panic.
-Rosen posts offering plausible support for the no lynch. My first thought is scummy here, since it looks to lend support to the worst option on the table bar none while also not committing to anything with 4m on the table. Speaking of which, @-Rosen, would you explain your thinking in 1,714 a bit?
7:57
Nictis reinforces no lynch
Wiadi sheeps Nictis' no lynch vote. Scummy.
-Rosen again offers confusion and distraction, it's still scummy since evidence suggests there may be literally seconds on the clock at this point.
But then Ondine notes no lynch is bad in response to Nictis.
-Rosen then shifts to a gutread on Pawn. Plausibly towny, though given earlier performance and Ondine's post immediately above, maybe bussing.
7:58
Wiadi notes a preference for UM that won't be enacted and really does not much
InterstellerHobo makes, what is, I think the core post of this sequence, pointing out the soul mechanic and inactivity as huge counterarguments to no lynching. Hard town. since, while Pawn or someone else might have made the call in a QT to bus at this point, it was still as likely than not that Pawn could be saved just by feigning confusion or doing nothing. Nictis' certainty here is also helpful.
Byzantine points out Nictis wasn't voting yesterday (still while voting for Nictis which isn't great).
Tykan swaps to Pawn, IH made a knock-down argument that nixes most anything else here I think.
7:59: Remember, based on D1 holding out until now would have led to a non-counted vote.
Nictis Swaps to Pawn
Pawn swaps to Underling as a self-save.
Pyrros swaps to Pawn, but it's already probably a lock at this point.
7:59-30s per Nictis
Wiadi swaps
Narcotic swaps
Meso swaps
8PM exactly, also hammer.
7:51
Ondine puts pressure on Pawn here, and suggests QT disclose. We know now that this is town. QT still refuses to disclose, which may be a conversation worth revisiting near EoD today?
7:52
-Rosen mentions waiting for a vote to see if Pawn responds. I don't like pushing it even later in general, since there's no real time at this point to reevaluate even if Pawn does respond, and all this does is make for a more panicked EoD, but I'll get back to this a bit later.
Something to remember is that D1 ended 2 minutes early (afaict), and the precedent that sets makes all the last minute play even worse.
7:53
Narcotic seconds this, but also suggests that no better option is likely to appear. Looks slightly towny.
Nictis puts a vote on Pawn, putting more pressure.
Pawn finally responds, notably pretty late despite having lurked for a while. I'm not sure if this is partially intentional to confuse things or scrape by in a last minute panic by offering some defense however thin, or just actual timing on a phone at EoD. Regardless, we know Pawn was scum, and we know Ondine and Nictis are town, so the only real fodder here is the description on Byzantine. If anything, Pawn's distancing from Byzantine here. There's many reasons why Pawn might do this, but I think it favors a scummy Byzantine at least slightly.
7:54
QT hammers in the time left being short. Mostly NAI, plausibly meant to be posted before Pawn responded given how close these were.
Pyrros posts to note that there's no time to respond to an earlier claim from Wiadi, again. Said request is answered later here so I think this is mostly NAI, though it does avoid the need to comment on Pawn either way which might be intentional.
Pawn posts to emphasize the difficulty of defending oneself on a phone. Both a bit sad and probably an appeal to emotions to scrape by.
Nictis complains about D1 ending nearly 2m early. This is important, since people should be aware of the possibility if they've seen this post, so indecision hardcore favors scum at this point.
7:55
This is where things start to get really messy.
-Rosen follows by noting that Itz/1K and/or anyone else is his preferred alternative if we ignore Pawn. Scummy imo, since casting confusion at the last second really serves the goal of a no lynch over anything. But also plausibly just actual panic.
Nictis swaps to no lynch, a very very bad play, out of a dislike of the options available due to UM being away and little read on me.
7:56
Byzantine freaks out about a tie, emphasizing the probability and that it's bad. This also fosters panic, and Byzantine is still on Nictis which is DOA at this point, so scummy because Byzantine could actually be doing something here to avert this instead of bolstering panic.
-Rosen posts offering plausible support for the no lynch. My first thought is scummy here, since it looks to lend support to the worst option on the table bar none while also not committing to anything with 4m on the table. Speaking of which, @-Rosen, would you explain your thinking in 1,714 a bit?
7:57
Nictis reinforces no lynch
Wiadi sheeps Nictis' no lynch vote. Scummy.
-Rosen again offers confusion and distraction, it's still scummy since evidence suggests there may be literally seconds on the clock at this point.
But then Ondine notes no lynch is bad in response to Nictis.
-Rosen then shifts to a gutread on Pawn. Plausibly towny, though given earlier performance and Ondine's post immediately above, maybe bussing.
7:58
Wiadi notes a preference for UM that won't be enacted and really does not much
InterstellerHobo makes, what is, I think the core post of this sequence, pointing out the soul mechanic and inactivity as huge counterarguments to no lynching. Hard town. since, while Pawn or someone else might have made the call in a QT to bus at this point, it was still as likely than not that Pawn could be saved just by feigning confusion or doing nothing. Nictis' certainty here is also helpful.
Byzantine points out Nictis wasn't voting yesterday (still while voting for Nictis which isn't great).
Tykan swaps to Pawn, IH made a knock-down argument that nixes most anything else here I think.
7:59: Remember, based on D1 holding out until now would have led to a non-counted vote.
Nictis Swaps to Pawn
Pawn swaps to Underling as a self-save.
Pyrros swaps to Pawn, but it's already probably a lock at this point.
7:59-30s per Nictis
Wiadi swaps
Narcotic swaps
Meso swaps
8PM exactly, also hammer.
So, what do I get from that excessive exercise?
IH and Ondine look good. Everyone else looks scummy AF, except Pawn whose actions are consistent, but, well, we know Pawn's scum. In particular, -Rosen mostly acted to build confusion in a tense moment and very few worked against this. Given that D1's ending very slightly early was specifically invoked, the buzzer beater here is simply unforgivable. Everyone who didn't vote at all looks doubly suspicious, though mostly those who also didn't vote D1.
If I had to think of someone that looks to be hurting town, while also striking a balance without losing town cred, that's -Rosen far more than Meso who wasn't very active until literally the last seconds, when past experience taught us the day may already have ended and this kind of last second cred ploy would just flop and probably draw ire if day had ended early. Second place would be Narcotic I don't think wanting a Pawn response is unusual given the phone bit.
But really, my inclination is less that this was a plan and more that everyone was mostly just actually panicked and confused, which I think makes sense if at least some scum are just doing literally nothing.
Like, even if these players aren't scum, Nictis almost flipped the last game from an insanely bad position just based on leaving incredibly inactive players as shields until the end and then pushing them all as scum.
