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[Mafia] Scarlet Hand Finale

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Nictis said:
@Shadell Maybe I can't read you. Maybe I have trouble figuring out what you're saying when you post things like this.
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I don't want you to ignore me. Far from it. I want you to actually base things off of what's said, instead of, like, willfully jumping on a third of it in the worst way.

Like, "I picked an arbitrary start point" is a patently absurd critique. Any start point would be arbitrary, and all you have to do to make that suspicious is go 1 page back and say that I skipped whatever happened in the that. You could fit the same argument to literally any data and make the same point that I cut something off unless I did the entire day, which would be insane. This isn't a meaningful argument.

I could go on to each point initially, and I did in the first draft of this post, but that doesn't help. It'd be another 500-800 words of counterargument that you'd respond to and I'd follow up with and that wouldn't really tell us anything about anyone but would make the thread even more unreadable and difficult to follow, while making bussing even easier. So let's compromise. I'm not going to bother with a more complete defense, hell, I'll even vote myself if that helps us actually do what I've been begging the thread to do all Day, that is, pushing new players and inactives to take the stage more.

In return, maybe just slow down a bit. Don't stop posting, that wouldn't be valuable at all, but if you're already set on killing me, than let's use this time to see where newer players fall when we put someone else in the drivers seat and make the pace less intimidating. Stop theorizing and start pushing people to do and interrogating their theories. You're posting several times the amount per day than many players have posted all game, and I have nowhere near the energy to keep up with it, but if you can, and you want to win, then let's set the lynch aside for now and force someone else to direct the conversation whether they want to or not.

Take @UnderlingMaster's most recent post. There's no real argument, it's just following what the vets have said with a bit of added reasoning this time that doesn't really follow (why would sticking to ones story be less scummy than changing it when pressed?). It's easy to bus when you provide all the arguments anyone might want with nearly 40 hours to go.

So if we're wasting the lynch on me, let's not pile on fast enough for the hammer and actually make the rest of the day productive. I'd trade a mislynch over a full Day of really bad discussion and a mislynch. @Happerry is apparently making a read on this situation. @UnderlingMaster's activity is pretty suspect. That's two who've done very little. Let's push them to start making and justifying plays instead of just sheeping in Underling's case.

For the record, I'm Captain Nelvas, a bodyguard corpse servitor. I can die instead of a guarded player if they'd die in the night, but have no kind of survival skills or the like. (And yes the color I used there is wrong, and no I didn't copy-paste it). The role's good, but only insofar as I have a better power-role to protect, and I'm bad at spotting those, so I'm not that averse to losing the ability.

[x] Kill Shadell
 
Shadell is voting themselves? Guess I have no reason not to. Though I do believe them in their role claim, bodyguard is a pretty big role to claim I think. Eh, I won't vote just yet.
 
Shadell said:
For the record, I'm Captain Nelvas, a bodyguard corpse servitor. I can die instead of a guarded player if they'd die in the night, but have no kind of survival skills or the like. (And yes the color I used there is wrong, and no I didn't copy-paste it). The role's good, but only insofar as I have a better power-role to protect, and I'm bad at spotting those, so I'm not that averse to losing the ability.

[x] Kill Shadell
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I feel like this is a super weird move and I don't like either the description or the claim itself or the self vote. It reads weird and seems manipulative.

That said, you spent like 24 hours baggering me and wasting our time. I'm not saying I don't also find some of what Shadell has done to be suspicious, but I actually find her less suspicious than others.

I still am most suspicious of Rosen for his interactions with Pawn and the other things I've stated before. Also I don't like how often he tries to pull protect others.
Town has no reason to trust any living players, so whenever someone advocates for others it should be at least considered to be worthy of scrutiny.

Also, @QTesseract any idea when you might shuffle off this mortal cool? Have you any clues?

And @Rayday11 you're here. Play the game.
What do you think of Shadell?
What do you think of Rosen, specifically Rosen and Byz as a team?
Who would you kill if you had a one shot kill but you had to take it in the next ten minutes?
 
ondine said:
I still am most suspicious of Rosen for his interactions with Pawn and the other things I've stated before. Also I don't like how often he tries to pull protect others.
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Are there any interactions besides the one you've already mentioned that ping you as off? Also, what does the second part of this mean?
 
ondine said:
And @Rayday11 you're here. Play the game.
What do you think of Shadell?
What do you think of Rosen, specifically Rosen and Byz as a team?
Who would you kill if you had a one shot kill but you had to take it in the next ten minutes?
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I'm rather conflicted on Shadell right now, on the one hand Nictis's accusations made sense to me, but her recent post pushing for activity makes her seem kinda town-ish too me. Also I have no idea how to handle a self vote, Nanook may have done it as town but it's still a very odd/suspicious move.
I'm willing to believe Byz's vanilla town claim for now so I don't currently think they're scum together.
With only ten minutes to decide I think I'd probably shoot 1K, they've claimed to not have a QT without prompting multiple times, something about that feels somewhat suspicious to me, like too much denial over something they were never accused of...
 
ondine said:
Town has no reason to trust any living players, so whenever someone advocates for others it should be at least considered to be worthy of scrutiny.
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I mean, insofar as all actions by living players should be subject to scrutiny, sure. But like...what, are we just supposed to ignore it when people make bad arguments? That seems like an easy road to a mislynch.

What I think would be more actively suspicious is defending the same player consistently from multiple different avenues of attack - Scum could do it either as cover or as pocketing, whereas with one cop-alike already dead I doubt a Townie would have many/any reasons to be that certain of another player's alignment. I don't think I've noticed any examples of this yet, but if you have, do please point them out.
 
Byzantine said:
@Shadell: Who have you protected and why?
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No one D1 since I had no good townreads and didn't want to go to crossfire until I had a bit more sense of what's flying around. -Rosen N2 since we only saw one scum team act and, while I thought (and still do) -Rosen was a bit scummy, keeping him around longer if not seemed more immediately useful than keeping me and scum was unlikely to try to murder -Rosen and I wasn't as concerned about cross-fire N2, though 3P of some variety remains a huge concern.
 
I would love it if I wasn't roleblocked last night right now.

[x] Lynch Mesonoxian

I really might just be having trouble reading Shadell's posts. They're still in my top suspects, but they're up there with Meso as far as that goes. If someone could tag the inactives and start asking questions I would personally appreciate it, I've got to go get prepared for my first day on the new job.
 
Oops, first line was just saying I got a message implying no attacks on -Rosen, but I realized there's no real indication that I'd have noticed if there was any kind of pile-up, and it's pretty obvious neither of us died so I figures it wasn't actually indicative.
 
Shadell said:
No one D1 since I had no good townreads and didn't want to go to crossfire until I had a bit more sense of what's flying around. -Rosen N2 since we only saw one scum team act and, while I thought (and still do) -Rosen was a bit scummy, keeping him around longer if not seemed more immediately useful than keeping me and scum was unlikely to try to murder -Rosen and I wasn't as concerned about cross-fire N2, though 3P of some variety remains a huge concern.
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I'm not really following the logic, here. We knew that dying does not immediately eliminate you N1, so even catching crossfire would be good, as it would tell us if there was an additional kill that was prevented, and in a longshot would potentially town-clear someone. Not using it has no possibility of helping.

N2 logic sounds... odd. You think Rosen might be attacked but also that he isn't going to be attacked?
 
Nictis said:
I would love it if I wasn't roleblocked last night right now.

[x] Lynch Mesonoxian

I really might just be having trouble reading Shadell's posts. They're still in my top suspects, but they're up there with Meso as far as that goes. If someone could tag the inactives and start asking questions I would personally appreciate it, I've got to go get prepared for my first day on the new job.
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Congrats on the new job. This the one you mentioned before? And we do have 28 hours but I'll ping some others.

To start, @Happerry and @1KBestK
What do you think of Shadell? Specifically this self vote and her claim she protected Rosen. Both if shes honest and if so what the claim means
What do you think of Rosen, specifically Rosen and Byz as a team?
Who would you kill if you had a one shot kill but you had to take it in the next ten minutes?

You both keep saying you're having trouble making reads but then you make a couple. You in particular 1K are not shy(sorry I have less experience with you Happ) so what's the deal?
 
So I'm looking things over again and while I'm still pretty sure meso and Shadell are aligned, I'm actually unsure as to which I would want to kill first in this situation. I feel like a Scum!meso flip would make a Scum!Shadell world infinitely more plausible, compared to a Scum!Shadell flip coming first only adding a little bit onto a Scum!meso world, with most of what meso is suspicious for already being pretty independent of Shadell.

@Nictis (Feel free to wait to answer since you're busy currently) Which direction do you think we should go with this? I feel like there are real merits and demerits to going either way here so I'm rather unsure about it.
 
@Deathvon, you should really try to find an actual reason to vote for someone.

A lynch vote is pretty meaningless. You contribute one voice out of ~20, and little else. If you are scum, you can quite safely place an unjustified vote on a fellow scummate without worrying about getting them killed. Thus, unjustified votes tell us nothing about alignment.

By actually arguing for or against a player, you might have a great deal more impact.
If scum argues strongly against scum, they have a chance to get a teammate killed. Thus, scum is strongly disincentivized for arguing convincingly against scum. A suspicious lack of such arguments is a good sign of scum.
If scum argues strongly to save scum, similar reasoning applies. Seeing such arguments is often a sign of scum.

When trying to judge if someone is scummy, we can assess their arguments. Someone making arguments based on facile grounds may well be trying to push a kill without thinking their target is scum.

Thus, it is beneficial for town to ensure that everyone makes impactful arguments- usually through the tools of pressuring with a lynch.

What your posts do is give the illusion of participation, without any impact. Done more artfully, this is a decent technique for hiding scumminess. In your case, consensus is that you're simply rather rusty, perhaps not understanding why you've been called scummy for voting with poor/minimal justification.

Hence, this post. Please take the time to assemble a compelling argument against someone, or justified reads for several people.
If you don't have the time, tell us as such, but eventually we will have to conclude that you aren't going to make your scumminess falsifiable.


@1KBestK , you certainly don't need a lecture on why making arguments is good for town, but your inactivity is also worryingly extreme.
 
(Also FWIW I honestly don't believe Shadell's claim here, mostly in the reasoning for her actions)
 
Byzantine said:
I'm not really following the logic, here. We knew that dying does not immediately eliminate you N1, so even catching crossfire would be good, as it would tell us if there was an additional kill that was prevented, and in a longshot would potentially town-clear someone. Not using it has no possibility of helping.

N2 logic sounds... odd. You think Rosen might be attacked but also that he isn't going to be attacked?
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Honestly, without the Soul mechanic a non-killing bodyguard is negative utility in most situations. I can't really fault them for not protecting anyone Night One, but I do find the idea that they decided to protect someone they saw as scummy to be kinda odd, considering the other options available. Can't criticize it too hard though.
ondine said:
Congrats on the new job. This the one you mentioned before?
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Yeah, thanks.
-Rosen said:
So I'm looking things over again and while I'm still pretty sure meso and Shadell are aligned, I'm actually unsure as to which I would want to kill first in this situation. I feel like a Scum!meso flip would make a Scum!Shadell world infinitely more plausible, compared to a Scum!Shadell flip coming first only adding a little bit onto a Scum!meso world, with most of what meso is suspicious for already being pretty independent of Shadell.

@Nictis (Feel free to wait to answer since you're busy currently) Which direction do you think we should go with this? I feel like there are real merits and demerits to going either way here so I'm rather unsure about it.
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Gotta look at in from the view of if they flip Town as well. If Shadell flips as Town it says nothing about Meso, but if Meso flips as Town it does suggest that Shadell might be Town as well.

I'm more inclined to lynch Meso at this point, since if Shadell is telling the truth then it adds a layer of wine into the night kill choices, and if Shadell manages to get in between the Heroes and a member of the Town it will prove the person that was attacked to definitely not be a Hero and will also solve the issue of whether or not Shadell is scum.
 
@Nictis for the record, my claim of utility in not revealing was in response to right then, not in general. I plan on revealing my role by EoD today at latest, possibly sooner. Most of the utility of keeping it hidden is gone now but there's stilla chance I can eke a bit more out of it, so I'm holding off.
ondine said:
I feel like this is a super weird move and I don't like either the description or the claim itself or the self vote. It reads weird and seems manipulative.

That said, you spent like 24 hours baggering me and wasting our time. I'm not saying I don't also find some of what Shadell has done to be suspicious, but I actually find her less suspicious than others.

I still am most suspicious of Rosen for his interactions with Pawn and the other things I've stated before. Also I don't like how often he tries to pull protect others.
Town has no reason to trust any living players, so whenever someone advocates for others it should be at least considered to be worthy of scrutiny.

Also, @QTesseract any idea when you might shuffle off this mortal cool? Have you any clues?

And @Rayday11 you're here. Play the game.
What do you think of Shadell?
What do you think of Rosen, specifically Rosen and Byz as a team?
Who would you kill if you had a one shot kill but you had to take it in the next ten minutes?
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My default guess is EoD today, but I don't know for certain.
 
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